I've been thinking for a while that the most efficient fighters (and logistics orgs!) in Ukraine are acting as a sort of guerillas with regards to the *system of their own government*. In fact I wish more people saw that this is the path forward.
Even the officials in their best moments understand this. See: allowing recruitment bypassing the dedicated recruitment system.
Very true, Ukrainians shouldnt let inefficiencies from above stop them form acting fast. I remember telling someone here that Ukraine should repurpose that huge mine field the Russians put up in Zaporizhzhia by taking them Russian mines out and using them. And I was told it didnt work since my analogue of guerrilla warfare in Africa didnt apply. A week later I saw a video of Ukrainians who were steps ahead and already recovering all kinds of Russian mines and explosive material from the frontline in Zaporizhzhia to use in their drones. The fundamental thing is fighting asymmetrically to defeat an enemy of greater resources. I believe Ukrainians can pull this off
You're mistaken, the AFU has its own separate service which is named the Logistics Forces. The LF with the close support of the State Transport Special Service are supplying everything the AFU need. It's not secret information, it's part of the legislation which is in the open assess.
Навіть нічого додати, сумно що іноземці бачать як риба гниє з голови(.
Содоля наче відправили у відставку за станом здоров'я? Щось таке я чув( я не впевнений), це неадекватно, що ніхто не несе відповідальності з вищих чинів.
І питання - куди пропав Кротевич, який написав заяву на Содоля, про нього ніякої згадки, він хоч живий?!
Ви потрапили у самісеньку суть. Том кожен раз критикує військове керівництво України, Генштаб ЗСУ та окремих військових. А вони всі хворі люди. Мало того, наші генерали настільки хворі, що звільняються із армії за станом здоров"я.
А відповідь проста, під час військового стану звільнитися можна за станом здоров"я (є інші випадки з родичами). Ось наші генерали просто зневажають закон і військовослужбовців і просто здоровими звільняються по неіснуючим хворобам.
I've made at the popular Ukrainian military forum the post and my topic has been banned. About 12 people supported me with likes, but the administration were cruel. My topic was banned. I don't want to argue, but the Ukrainian society is breaking apart. One part wants to know WHAT HAS HAPPEND, but another thinks it's not the appropriate time.
I wish you were not corrent, i.e. making mistakes in your deduction about incompetence of higher command. I fail to find any such mistakes. It all points to the inability of higher command to lead/manage/organize strategically. All successes of ZSU are because of autonomy of brigades, independence of decisions. I hope (not just hope, but pray) that your hypothesis about self-organizing units are true and we will see more proofs of this happening.
Being in Ukraine, donating a lot and listening to PR's campaign of the dude for the 3rd year now is so depressing. Gov-ment became more and more similar to West goverments now -- too much talk, and no walk at all.
Thank you Tom, for writing unpleasant but truthful things. You really care about Ukraine.
Always thoroughly enjoy your analysis!!! This is not criticism, just a different way of looking at things. To clarify about Trump. I'm pretty much a New Yorker, 63, grew up reading about Trump doing this or that. In 1989 five black kids were accused of raping a white female jogger in Central Park. Trump took out an advert basically saying they should be lynched. Even before they were later exonerated I've um, not been a fan of Trump--to say the least.
I also grew up mostly on Staten Island which is a mostly blue-collar island without an identity. Anyway, when Trump was elected in 2016 I spent four years on FB trying to talk some of my Staten Island friends (old classmates) into seeing how bad Trump was. I doubt I changed anyone's mind. But none unfriended me, which is more than I can say for my more naturally liberal friends. During one of these effort a friend said something like this, "Why don't you like Trump Max? You were a lot like him, always saying crazy shit."
And there's the rub. As much as I hate Trump he says things no other politicians says. He said right to Europe's face, spend more on defense because we ain't bailing you out. Now, he didn't think that up on his own. But he knows when someone tells him something in private that is probably true.
He's not directly good for Ukraine. But he says things that need to be said. He forces the establishment out of its comfort zone. Will this be good for Ukraine? Like you, I have no idea. But the way you feel about Zelensky is how I feel about Biden and his troupe of fuckwits ;) I hate Trump and though this isn't PC to say, it's no slam dunk to me he'll do worse than Biden.
Look at the way Trump (bigger physically) pulls Putin towards him in this clip. Total douche-bag power move. Whatever Trump does, he's not going to do what Putin wants. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo-Jiil1Ues
No. I'm sorry to disagree but that isn't the case. He's not a Republican. He's a narcissist, daddy-issues, trust fund baby, womanizing, unfiltered and unlikely TV star. The Republicans use him to get elected (once he miraculously did so himself). He has no interest in government, let alone foreign policy. Again, been following him for a while. I doubt he could place most countries on a map.
Whatever the establishment is, it works behind the scenes mostly. That's the same for all Presidents IMO. The problem with any establishment is it really doesn't know what it wants to do. Just a gazillion competing interests and cheese no one wants moved. Trump puts them on the spot. Indeed, I'd say that's his #1 talent. Putting people on the spot. Riling people up. On TV or in real life.
On Ukraine his position is clear. Ukraine is losing, Russia is more powerful, let's make a deal so both can stop fighting. What's wrong with that logic? Nothing. The problem isn't the logic, it's the RATIONALE. Ukrainians can't rationally allow Russia to win and re-arm. Again, Trump really isn't that interested. He's just PROVOKING. Because that makes him look smart. You can look smart by pointing out how others are dumb (something both you and I must be careful about ;))
The good thing is he gets the real question out in the open. And I believe if most people try to answer that question they will do more to help Ukraine.
He is literally one of the most powerful men in US. In what works suits that count not as being in the establishment? It's not just his power in politics, he was born as one of the richest people in the country. How the hell would he not be from establishment? It's crazy that people believe that he is somehow a lower class representative that fights against the mythical establishment.
Trump said during his 2016 campaign that he was paying every other politician on stage at some point and people quote it to mean he's different somehow. Guys, he was the one bribing the politicians, he said it himself, he just wants to stop paying but still get whatever he was getting for it, or to be the one who gets paid, that's why he's running. Jesus Christ, why does this need explaining (to no effect). "Drain the swamp" my ass. Now watch him and Musk disband the financial crime law enforcement, sanction evasion tracking and so on.
In NYC he wasn't near the top in most wealthy real estate families. He got lucky with the investment in the Commodore Hotel that became a Hilton. What people think about him "representing the lower class" is really just part of liberal propaganda. He never says that; has never said it. He's whole schtick is plating everything with gold and selling it as real luxury to what we called the bridge and tunnel crowd. It's why the banks kept lending to him. He can bring people to buy his projects. It's the same with the President thing. He just knows how to sell to a certain kind of people. It is what it is.
I know it's hard for you to see this if you don't live in NYC during that time (and even today). What power does he really have today? He has the attention span of a nat. And now he's 78 and probably demented. There is a TON OF THEATRICS involved here.
The Democrats have actually liked Trump...until they played it a little bit too cute ;) Think about it. He's just one man. 99.9% of both parties only care if he helps them get elected--for the Democrats as the embodiment of EVIL and for the Republicans, well, just cause they associate themselves with him.
Max R. is correct. I would go so far as to call Trump EVIL! I too grew up in New York State. I no longer live there. My uncle's company nearly went belly-up dealing with Trump's organization (a mirror image of Trump himself, behaviorally). His company manufactured, sold, and installed acoustic paneling for commercial buildings. Some really nice stuff! My uncle said that dealing with the Trump Organization was like dealing with the Mafia. Getting them to pay their bills was a chore. One of Trump's many times declaring bankruptcy nearly did in my uncle's company.
Trump's tenure as President during Trump 1.0 was terrible. For example, his management of the pandemic was just horrid. The U.S. was unprepared for the big viral invasion. Trump had disestablished U.S. planning & organizing that had been set up by the previous administration (I think that it was Obama's doing) to address such an eventuality (i.e., the Pandemic). Trump's performance on TV on the daily Pandemic medical briefing to the American public was a pathetic joke. Trump showing off and almost totally unprepared and seemingly indifferent to any relevant subject matter other than his showing off. Just another Trump reality TV series.
Trump is a toxic narcissist and moron. Optimistic speculations on how Trump may be good for Ukraine are bushwah in my opinion. Of course I could be wrong. I HOPE that I am wrong! However, I am not holding my breath.
BTW, there were no good choices in the most recent Presidential election. The only sorta positive thing I can say about Kamala Harris is that she would not destabilize the U.S. Constitution. Just look at Trump with his election denial and that riot/protest/insurrection during January 6, 2021. The U.S. Constitution IMHO is now under potential threat at least to some extent while we may have to meet continuing threats from Putin and even worse (for the U.S.) Xi Jinping. Oh well ....
Apparently a lot of people who voted democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio Cortez also voted Trump. She's even conducting a survey as why they'd vote for her and Trump.
Trump appeals because he agitates against the entrenched systems and talks like he actually cares.
What is so ironic, is that in my perception, AOC really cares. I don't identify with her ultra leftist politics. At this point the U.S. IMHO needs to be governed at the center with moderate ideological shifts to the left and to the right as Presidential administrations and the Congress change with elections. Also, ironically I actually like Bernie Sanders who is also on the lefty-left side of the Democratic Party whereas I am not. I even tend to agree somewhat with his political positions even though I am not one of his constitutents. Trump ... well he is a lot like Hitler to me. No not a "Jew killer," but Trump is a dangerous idiot who, like Adolf, can gaze the emotions of an individual or a group of people and exploit them toward his own ends. OK, perhaps Hitler wasn't an idiot. More like a dilletante in just about everything, but the way he tried to assume the role of the big uber-General was idiotic and obviously led to a huge disaster for Germany and for Europe. Trump is dangerous on so many levels. AOC and Bernie Sanders just aren't.
He plays a very good propaganda game. People actually believe he is an anti-establishment man.
And the establishment is real (and I say that as a bureaucrat). The American system is particularly corrupted with the lobby and PAC systems, a media held in a few hands and an entrenched byzantine bureaucracy.
It's not useful to think on terms of "establishment" bc it's quite vague. Perhaps it will be easier to think on terms of elites (powerful people running things) and counter-elites (powerful people not running things). As far as government, the Republican Party and even the business community, Trump is a counter-elite. He is a part of the system but not part of the club that runs it, so he is not bound by the same rules, understandings or norms. Hence all the chaos he brings.
Tom Cooper,i drink a coffe whent read this, and make me smile, again the ukranians are great than the problems agains them. The find a way, abroad kiev system, perfect. Now is necesary make a way of send this "sectors" all the gear than they need
To be honest, Musk became a bigger clown than Zelensky ever was, lately. I'm not sure why everyone is making such a fuss of his "funny" tweets about Scholtz, Zelensky etc. So he's the top billionaire and buddies with Trump (not even sure Trump sees him as a buddy, either), does that make his utterances that much more valuable (not speaking about $$$) and noteworthy (again, I don't mean bank notes) than that of an average John Doe that any sane state leader would simply ignore?
Now, if he was to use all these billions to buy himself a place in the next presidential election in the US (or, failing that, South Africa), that would definitely, ahem, change the world...
Musk is very good at playing ball with Putin (who paid for his X takeover), or with Beijing (which then played him on electric vehicles, badly), and with Trump (who will toss him aside the minute he gets out of line).
But trash-talking heads of state on Twitter/X like that is, while very Medvedevesque, not going to work for the long term. Does anyone think von der Leyen and similar haven't already taken notice?
Well, yes, he does seem a bit like Medvedev lately. The thing is - while many believe that Medvedev is often just voicing things that Pudding thinks but doesn't want to say - I don't think Trump needs a character like that. So far, he seemed perfectly capable of saying whatever the hell he pleases on his own...
"Zelensky has successfully turned Ukraine into a country almost entirely dependent on supplies of money, weapons and ammunition from abroad." -- Maybe the respected author knows the recipe for maintaining financial independence in a country that is subject to constant bombing throughout its entire territory, with its energy sector practically destroyed, its largest industrial and agricultural region captured by the enemy, and a third of the population removed from the economy into emigration and to the front.
The point author was making was not about keeping financial independence without context. The point was about mobilizing people both in economy and military during the war. But for that one needs to be able to govern and lead people with a grace. I live in Ukraine and I do not see that taxes are being increases for the corporations and companies that can make substantial difference. Most things are still happening via horizontal connections. Sadly, there is no actual improvement of how things happen in Ukraine: law is still not working. Just this thing made at least 4 my close friends leave the country before and during the war. They did not want to raise a child in a law-less country.
Sometimes bad leadership makes you so sick you need to leave. I dont blame them especially if they still send support to organizations that help fellow Ukrainians like come back alive and what not.
Most browsers have translate function these days, so almost any language is not an issue anymore. Though sometimes original translations have better quality. But not necessarily.
I am glad that you are finally exposing the incompetence of Zelenskiy, Yermak, Sirkiy & Co. They have been "worth" of such a "full scale" critique for a long time already. There are many other local voices in Ukraine, saying more or less similar things, i.e. Taras Chmut ("Come back alive" foundation), Yuriy Butusov (censor.net) etc.
I wish you are right and several professional ZSU brigades can operate independently without GenStab-U being involved. I guess it all started with "AZOV" being encircled in Mariupol in 2022. There they had to fight on their own for over two months. The 3rd brigade (which had connections with Azov in the beginning) later took over with their independent way of fighting. The next step, i.e. the coordination with the neighbours directly without GenStab-U, is exactly the way to go in case GenStab-U is incompetent. I wish them luck and intelligence in stopping russian orcs and throwing them back, where they came from.
Chmut is definitely using a more diplomatic way of expressing problems, but imho he is pretty clear in his opinion about GenStab-U (27 minute 08 second in the video).
Oh, I have that one in my queue and I can imagine he started raising the issue now, but he definitely didn't do that before, he did not lead the discussion on this sort of thing. Good if he's giving his weight to those concerns now.
Having listened to it, I don't think I agree that even counts. He compliments some changes and finishes off with "as of Genshtab I'm not ready to say something good yet". It's literally half a sentence. A bit rich to claim he's saying "similar things".
He's working within a certain framework and controls what he says to keep making his contributions, but that framework does not allow participating in discussions like this one, at least not yet.
System Zelensky is actually the current western system - do nothing because it might offend someone or more importantly hurt the oligarchs that are increasingly the main beneficiary of an economic system built over the period 1970-2000 (aka neoliberalism).
----
As for Ukraine and autonomous sectors that's all very good but it is a problem if Ukraine wants to win the war. This requires far more coherent management and coordination of all resources
Firstly whilst autonomous sector A might be doing well, autonomous sector B might be struggling due to less than stellar officer quality.
Secondly, if the Ukrainians are to kick the Russians out they need coordinated and managed large offensives.
And that requires a whole of government approach, not just Autonomous Sector A periodically kicking some Russian butt.
After all great offensives such as Case Yellow, Overlord, Husky, Bagration etc were planned, coordinated and implemented at high level. But then Ukraine is lacking the calibre of generals ala Mannstein, Eisenhower, Bradley, Zhukov or even Timoshenko etc.
Concept of wastage of human lives rooted in western 20th century humanism. It is not really something applicable when considering how armies functioned over history.
The Russian model of warfare has never placed any emphasise on the value of human life* (and neither did the Japanese, Romanians, Italians or pre-1918 western models). Humans were always available in relatively large supply (even in 1944-45 when Red Army was relatively short on manpower).
Wastage is only an issue if one is in danger of running out of a critical resource and that affects military results.
It's a brutal calculus but that's the truth of warfare.
*And in reality human life has no intrinsic value. It's value is determined by the values given to it by each society. In modern west that's a lot more than say in sub Saharan Africa. But even modern west has different values on different lives - eg life of a single western mass murderer has more value than that of a 1000 Palestinian or Yemeni children. Hence west keeps the murderer in a comfortable gaol whilst it sells weapons to its "allies" to kill the Palestinian and Yemenis en masse.
However Zhukov and other Soviet commanders didn't win a pyrrhic victory, they won a decisive one that turned the USSR into a global superpower, complete with Eastern Europe to expand Russia's political control to the west!
I think there's probably a lot more calculus in lives wasted than people merely being unhappy with their lives being thrown away. Eg Japanese but also many Germans did it with gusto. Japanese died by their hundred thousands in suicidal charges. Death rates were often close to 100%.
There's a lot of other factors - societal cohesion, perceptions of fairness and equality, social values.
The guys who were shooting their officers or at least inspiring others to do so in Russia in 1917 were also the guys who then took over the country and fought WWII (aka Communists).
They were literally utilising a lot of grievances against the Tzar. Remember there was an attempted revolution in 1905. People were unhappy and Nicholas II a very weak ruler.
Stalin on the other hand had created a cult. Yes there were some who opposed him (eg Ukrainian nationalists under Stjepan Bandera and Andriy Melnyk). But overall cult Stalin was strong. People were already used to death and suffering during the previous 30+ years of chaos.
Communism brought them suffering but also progress - electricity, education, healthcare and most critically a perception of relative equality.
And first the Soviet people were buoyed by need to defend against the fascists and then the desire for revenge. Now remember the French who mainly sat out WWII after being whooped in 1940 in under 7 weeks. Most just ignored the panzers as they drove through French cities. No mass partisan movements (this only really got going in late 1943-1944).
Hence it's easy to see the Russians were far more willing to suffer brutal casualties than say equivalent western units and populace.
Also incidentally the country that really won the pyrrhic victory was Great Britain. For fighting the whole war from 1939-45, it was left a bankrupt state that quickly started losing its empire, power and prestige.
1) Trump: What he will be for Russia or Ukraine depends mainly how they treat his ego. Hint:: Go back in history and find out, why he decided to run for President at all. For this one one should know a certain video, where Obama publicly ridiculed Trump among his peers.
2) Self ruling of units: This works only till a certain level, but sorry for ruining dreams is no solution for the entire front line. For this (i.e. the whole front line) functioning higher organisation levels are a demand (divisions, corps...)
3) No matter how qualified a fighting force is, without adequate supply lines it will lead to nothing.
4) Syrsky and neglecting human life: I do not know his attitude and will nerver know, as for this I would have to talk to him directly, which will never happen.
So I fall back to occam's razor. With his obsession for micromanagment he will work down the list of battalions in a strict order, which means he will always be too late with his decisions.
Such a method can only work for small engagements.
The bigger the list gets by constant creation of new units the more he will be too late with his decisions.
This is indeed good news if local commanders can keep it going. There is no excuse not to. And it looks like Biden finally raised targeting restrictions.
The government is responsible for:
* logistics
* weapon and ammo supplies
* economy
The army will be unable to hold the line without that.
The government is not supplying anything of that, anyway. So, the ZSU is going to make do with what it gets - and even organise better on its own.
Matter of fact is: the ZSU is better without the GenStab-U (and other Buddies).
I've been thinking for a while that the most efficient fighters (and logistics orgs!) in Ukraine are acting as a sort of guerillas with regards to the *system of their own government*. In fact I wish more people saw that this is the path forward.
Even the officials in their best moments understand this. See: allowing recruitment bypassing the dedicated recruitment system.
Very true, Ukrainians shouldnt let inefficiencies from above stop them form acting fast. I remember telling someone here that Ukraine should repurpose that huge mine field the Russians put up in Zaporizhzhia by taking them Russian mines out and using them. And I was told it didnt work since my analogue of guerrilla warfare in Africa didnt apply. A week later I saw a video of Ukrainians who were steps ahead and already recovering all kinds of Russian mines and explosive material from the frontline in Zaporizhzhia to use in their drones. The fundamental thing is fighting asymmetrically to defeat an enemy of greater resources. I believe Ukrainians can pull this off
You're mistaken, the AFU has its own separate service which is named the Logistics Forces. The LF with the close support of the State Transport Special Service are supplying everything the AFU need. It's not secret information, it's part of the legislation which is in the open assess.
And where do they get what they need from? Fuel, food, water, money?
Навіть нічого додати, сумно що іноземці бачать як риба гниє з голови(.
Содоля наче відправили у відставку за станом здоров'я? Щось таке я чув( я не впевнений), це неадекватно, що ніхто не несе відповідальності з вищих чинів.
І питання - куди пропав Кротевич, який написав заяву на Содоля, про нього ніякої згадки, він хоч живий?!
Good questions. Sorry, don't know the answers.
Ви потрапили у самісеньку суть. Том кожен раз критикує військове керівництво України, Генштаб ЗСУ та окремих військових. А вони всі хворі люди. Мало того, наші генерали настільки хворі, що звільняються із армії за станом здоров"я.
Залужний хворий https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/03/9/7445687/
Шаптала хворий https://umoloda.kyiv.ua/number/0/180/181942
Содоль хворий https://suspilne.media/871013-urij-sodol-zvilnivsa-z-armii-na-pidstavi-visnovku-vlk-dzerela-up/
Марченко хворий https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/legendarniy...e-z-armiyi-cherez-stan-zdorov-ya-2697039.html
А відповідь проста, під час військового стану звільнитися можна за станом здоров"я (є інші випадки з родичами). Ось наші генерали просто зневажають закон і військовослужбовців і просто здоровими звільняються по неіснуючим хворобам.
I've made at the popular Ukrainian military forum the post and my topic has been banned. About 12 people supported me with likes, but the administration were cruel. My topic was banned. I don't want to argue, but the Ukrainian society is breaking apart. One part wants to know WHAT HAS HAPPEND, but another thinks it's not the appropriate time.
https://reibert.info/threads/generali-zsu-ta-xvorobi.1498606/#post-16261776
I wish you were not corrent, i.e. making mistakes in your deduction about incompetence of higher command. I fail to find any such mistakes. It all points to the inability of higher command to lead/manage/organize strategically. All successes of ZSU are because of autonomy of brigades, independence of decisions. I hope (not just hope, but pray) that your hypothesis about self-organizing units are true and we will see more proofs of this happening.
Being in Ukraine, donating a lot and listening to PR's campaign of the dude for the 3rd year now is so depressing. Gov-ment became more and more similar to West goverments now -- too much talk, and no walk at all.
Thank you Tom, for writing unpleasant but truthful things. You really care about Ukraine.
Always thoroughly enjoy your analysis!!! This is not criticism, just a different way of looking at things. To clarify about Trump. I'm pretty much a New Yorker, 63, grew up reading about Trump doing this or that. In 1989 five black kids were accused of raping a white female jogger in Central Park. Trump took out an advert basically saying they should be lynched. Even before they were later exonerated I've um, not been a fan of Trump--to say the least.
I also grew up mostly on Staten Island which is a mostly blue-collar island without an identity. Anyway, when Trump was elected in 2016 I spent four years on FB trying to talk some of my Staten Island friends (old classmates) into seeing how bad Trump was. I doubt I changed anyone's mind. But none unfriended me, which is more than I can say for my more naturally liberal friends. During one of these effort a friend said something like this, "Why don't you like Trump Max? You were a lot like him, always saying crazy shit."
And there's the rub. As much as I hate Trump he says things no other politicians says. He said right to Europe's face, spend more on defense because we ain't bailing you out. Now, he didn't think that up on his own. But he knows when someone tells him something in private that is probably true.
He's not directly good for Ukraine. But he says things that need to be said. He forces the establishment out of its comfort zone. Will this be good for Ukraine? Like you, I have no idea. But the way you feel about Zelensky is how I feel about Biden and his troupe of fuckwits ;) I hate Trump and though this isn't PC to say, it's no slam dunk to me he'll do worse than Biden.
Look at the way Trump (bigger physically) pulls Putin towards him in this clip. Total douche-bag power move. Whatever Trump does, he's not going to do what Putin wants. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo-Jiil1Ues
All fine.
Just that he's a member of that establishment 'against' which he's 'speaking out'....
No. I'm sorry to disagree but that isn't the case. He's not a Republican. He's a narcissist, daddy-issues, trust fund baby, womanizing, unfiltered and unlikely TV star. The Republicans use him to get elected (once he miraculously did so himself). He has no interest in government, let alone foreign policy. Again, been following him for a while. I doubt he could place most countries on a map.
Whatever the establishment is, it works behind the scenes mostly. That's the same for all Presidents IMO. The problem with any establishment is it really doesn't know what it wants to do. Just a gazillion competing interests and cheese no one wants moved. Trump puts them on the spot. Indeed, I'd say that's his #1 talent. Putting people on the spot. Riling people up. On TV or in real life.
On Ukraine his position is clear. Ukraine is losing, Russia is more powerful, let's make a deal so both can stop fighting. What's wrong with that logic? Nothing. The problem isn't the logic, it's the RATIONALE. Ukrainians can't rationally allow Russia to win and re-arm. Again, Trump really isn't that interested. He's just PROVOKING. Because that makes him look smart. You can look smart by pointing out how others are dumb (something both you and I must be careful about ;))
The good thing is he gets the real question out in the open. And I believe if most people try to answer that question they will do more to help Ukraine.
He is literally one of the most powerful men in US. In what works suits that count not as being in the establishment? It's not just his power in politics, he was born as one of the richest people in the country. How the hell would he not be from establishment? It's crazy that people believe that he is somehow a lower class representative that fights against the mythical establishment.
Trump said during his 2016 campaign that he was paying every other politician on stage at some point and people quote it to mean he's different somehow. Guys, he was the one bribing the politicians, he said it himself, he just wants to stop paying but still get whatever he was getting for it, or to be the one who gets paid, that's why he's running. Jesus Christ, why does this need explaining (to no effect). "Drain the swamp" my ass. Now watch him and Musk disband the financial crime law enforcement, sanction evasion tracking and so on.
Yes, he's actually mind-blowingly simple in his interests and methods.
In NYC he wasn't near the top in most wealthy real estate families. He got lucky with the investment in the Commodore Hotel that became a Hilton. What people think about him "representing the lower class" is really just part of liberal propaganda. He never says that; has never said it. He's whole schtick is plating everything with gold and selling it as real luxury to what we called the bridge and tunnel crowd. It's why the banks kept lending to him. He can bring people to buy his projects. It's the same with the President thing. He just knows how to sell to a certain kind of people. It is what it is.
I know it's hard for you to see this if you don't live in NYC during that time (and even today). What power does he really have today? He has the attention span of a nat. And now he's 78 and probably demented. There is a TON OF THEATRICS involved here.
The Democrats have actually liked Trump...until they played it a little bit too cute ;) Think about it. He's just one man. 99.9% of both parties only care if he helps them get elected--for the Democrats as the embodiment of EVIL and for the Republicans, well, just cause they associate themselves with him.
Max R. is correct. I would go so far as to call Trump EVIL! I too grew up in New York State. I no longer live there. My uncle's company nearly went belly-up dealing with Trump's organization (a mirror image of Trump himself, behaviorally). His company manufactured, sold, and installed acoustic paneling for commercial buildings. Some really nice stuff! My uncle said that dealing with the Trump Organization was like dealing with the Mafia. Getting them to pay their bills was a chore. One of Trump's many times declaring bankruptcy nearly did in my uncle's company.
Trump's tenure as President during Trump 1.0 was terrible. For example, his management of the pandemic was just horrid. The U.S. was unprepared for the big viral invasion. Trump had disestablished U.S. planning & organizing that had been set up by the previous administration (I think that it was Obama's doing) to address such an eventuality (i.e., the Pandemic). Trump's performance on TV on the daily Pandemic medical briefing to the American public was a pathetic joke. Trump showing off and almost totally unprepared and seemingly indifferent to any relevant subject matter other than his showing off. Just another Trump reality TV series.
Trump is a toxic narcissist and moron. Optimistic speculations on how Trump may be good for Ukraine are bushwah in my opinion. Of course I could be wrong. I HOPE that I am wrong! However, I am not holding my breath.
BTW, there were no good choices in the most recent Presidential election. The only sorta positive thing I can say about Kamala Harris is that she would not destabilize the U.S. Constitution. Just look at Trump with his election denial and that riot/protest/insurrection during January 6, 2021. The U.S. Constitution IMHO is now under potential threat at least to some extent while we may have to meet continuing threats from Putin and even worse (for the U.S.) Xi Jinping. Oh well ....
You hit the nail on the head.
Apparently a lot of people who voted democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio Cortez also voted Trump. She's even conducting a survey as why they'd vote for her and Trump.
Trump appeals because he agitates against the entrenched systems and talks like he actually cares.
What is so ironic, is that in my perception, AOC really cares. I don't identify with her ultra leftist politics. At this point the U.S. IMHO needs to be governed at the center with moderate ideological shifts to the left and to the right as Presidential administrations and the Congress change with elections. Also, ironically I actually like Bernie Sanders who is also on the lefty-left side of the Democratic Party whereas I am not. I even tend to agree somewhat with his political positions even though I am not one of his constitutents. Trump ... well he is a lot like Hitler to me. No not a "Jew killer," but Trump is a dangerous idiot who, like Adolf, can gaze the emotions of an individual or a group of people and exploit them toward his own ends. OK, perhaps Hitler wasn't an idiot. More like a dilletante in just about everything, but the way he tried to assume the role of the big uber-General was idiotic and obviously led to a huge disaster for Germany and for Europe. Trump is dangerous on so many levels. AOC and Bernie Sanders just aren't.
He plays a very good propaganda game. People actually believe he is an anti-establishment man.
And the establishment is real (and I say that as a bureaucrat). The American system is particularly corrupted with the lobby and PAC systems, a media held in a few hands and an entrenched byzantine bureaucracy.
It's not useful to think on terms of "establishment" bc it's quite vague. Perhaps it will be easier to think on terms of elites (powerful people running things) and counter-elites (powerful people not running things). As far as government, the Republican Party and even the business community, Trump is a counter-elite. He is a part of the system but not part of the club that runs it, so he is not bound by the same rules, understandings or norms. Hence all the chaos he brings.
Tom Cooper,i drink a coffe whent read this, and make me smile, again the ukranians are great than the problems agains them. The find a way, abroad kiev system, perfect. Now is necesary make a way of send this "sectors" all the gear than they need
You guys still dont get it , trump is kgb assest .. and will do whatever master wants
To be honest, Musk became a bigger clown than Zelensky ever was, lately. I'm not sure why everyone is making such a fuss of his "funny" tweets about Scholtz, Zelensky etc. So he's the top billionaire and buddies with Trump (not even sure Trump sees him as a buddy, either), does that make his utterances that much more valuable (not speaking about $$$) and noteworthy (again, I don't mean bank notes) than that of an average John Doe that any sane state leader would simply ignore?
Now, if he was to use all these billions to buy himself a place in the next presidential election in the US (or, failing that, South Africa), that would definitely, ahem, change the world...
Musk is very good at playing ball with Putin (who paid for his X takeover), or with Beijing (which then played him on electric vehicles, badly), and with Trump (who will toss him aside the minute he gets out of line).
But trash-talking heads of state on Twitter/X like that is, while very Medvedevesque, not going to work for the long term. Does anyone think von der Leyen and similar haven't already taken notice?
Well, yes, he does seem a bit like Medvedev lately. The thing is - while many believe that Medvedev is often just voicing things that Pudding thinks but doesn't want to say - I don't think Trump needs a character like that. So far, he seemed perfectly capable of saying whatever the hell he pleases on his own...
I would be surprised if Musk was not aiming at getting into politics more directly in the next elections or the next ones.
What’s Ukrainian for “condottieri”?
Probably "otaman" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ataman
OTA in radio comms stands for over-the-air. OTA-man.
"Zelensky has successfully turned Ukraine into a country almost entirely dependent on supplies of money, weapons and ammunition from abroad." -- Maybe the respected author knows the recipe for maintaining financial independence in a country that is subject to constant bombing throughout its entire territory, with its energy sector practically destroyed, its largest industrial and agricultural region captured by the enemy, and a third of the population removed from the economy into emigration and to the front.
The point author was making was not about keeping financial independence without context. The point was about mobilizing people both in economy and military during the war. But for that one needs to be able to govern and lead people with a grace. I live in Ukraine and I do not see that taxes are being increases for the corporations and companies that can make substantial difference. Most things are still happening via horizontal connections. Sadly, there is no actual improvement of how things happen in Ukraine: law is still not working. Just this thing made at least 4 my close friends leave the country before and during the war. They did not want to raise a child in a law-less country.
Funny that people who left used that lawlessness to leave but think they are the good ones. It's really just excuses (even when based in reality).
Sometimes bad leadership makes you so sick you need to leave. I dont blame them especially if they still send support to organizations that help fellow Ukrainians like come back alive and what not.
I've noticed you linked the Ukrainian version of the Babel article, they usually have English versions as well (UA/EN/RU links in the header).
https://babel.ua/en/texts/112593-the-ukrainian-line-of-defense-is-slowly-collapsing-how-does-it-happen-on-different-levels-why-does-it-happen-and-what-to-do-with-it-high-ranking-officers-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-explain
thanks for this
Most browsers have translate function these days, so almost any language is not an issue anymore. Though sometimes original translations have better quality. But not necessarily.
Brutaly Cold and logical, as always ✅🔝
Thank you, Tom.
I am glad that you are finally exposing the incompetence of Zelenskiy, Yermak, Sirkiy & Co. They have been "worth" of such a "full scale" critique for a long time already. There are many other local voices in Ukraine, saying more or less similar things, i.e. Taras Chmut ("Come back alive" foundation), Yuriy Butusov (censor.net) etc.
I wish you are right and several professional ZSU brigades can operate independently without GenStab-U being involved. I guess it all started with "AZOV" being encircled in Mariupol in 2022. There they had to fight on their own for over two months. The 3rd brigade (which had connections with Azov in the beginning) later took over with their independent way of fighting. The next step, i.e. the coordination with the neighbours directly without GenStab-U, is exactly the way to go in case GenStab-U is incompetent. I wish them luck and intelligence in stopping russian orcs and throwing them back, where they came from.
I'm pretty sure Chmut never said anything of the sort, it's not like him at all.
Watch this i.e. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2Q9D7tF18g
Chmut is definitely using a more diplomatic way of expressing problems, but imho he is pretty clear in his opinion about GenStab-U (27 minute 08 second in the video).
Oh, I have that one in my queue and I can imagine he started raising the issue now, but he definitely didn't do that before, he did not lead the discussion on this sort of thing. Good if he's giving his weight to those concerns now.
Having listened to it, I don't think I agree that even counts. He compliments some changes and finishes off with "as of Genshtab I'm not ready to say something good yet". It's literally half a sentence. A bit rich to claim he's saying "similar things".
He's working within a certain framework and controls what he says to keep making his contributions, but that framework does not allow participating in discussions like this one, at least not yet.
Seems Biden has finally approved long range missile strikes into Russia.
Too little (meaning how many missiles) and too late
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html
As usual. Imagine the havoc a hundred ATACMS hitting Russian military targets would bring during the 2023 Ukrainian offensive....
Yeah, a bit late now.
Thank you for the update. Just read the Atacms/Scalp news. Disgrace.
System Zelensky is actually the current western system - do nothing because it might offend someone or more importantly hurt the oligarchs that are increasingly the main beneficiary of an economic system built over the period 1970-2000 (aka neoliberalism).
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As for Ukraine and autonomous sectors that's all very good but it is a problem if Ukraine wants to win the war. This requires far more coherent management and coordination of all resources
Firstly whilst autonomous sector A might be doing well, autonomous sector B might be struggling due to less than stellar officer quality.
Secondly, if the Ukrainians are to kick the Russians out they need coordinated and managed large offensives.
And that requires a whole of government approach, not just Autonomous Sector A periodically kicking some Russian butt.
After all great offensives such as Case Yellow, Overlord, Husky, Bagration etc were planned, coordinated and implemented at high level. But then Ukraine is lacking the calibre of generals ala Mannstein, Eisenhower, Bradley, Zhukov or even Timoshenko etc.
I like and agree mostly to your conclusions, but your list of generals is really a very 'mixed list'.
Sometimes the errors of one side makes the other side look better than it really is.
I agree mistakes of other side have a big impact. But being able to exploit your opponent's mistakes is a skill set as well.
The Russians make constant mistakes but somehow the Ukrainians can't exploit them to gain an overall advantage.
This is a consequence of a non existing functioning higher level organisation.
Zhukov is generally overestimated, he really was a big waster of human lives.
Zhukov won battles and that's all that matters.
Concept of wastage of human lives rooted in western 20th century humanism. It is not really something applicable when considering how armies functioned over history.
The Russian model of warfare has never placed any emphasise on the value of human life* (and neither did the Japanese, Romanians, Italians or pre-1918 western models). Humans were always available in relatively large supply (even in 1944-45 when Red Army was relatively short on manpower).
Wastage is only an issue if one is in danger of running out of a critical resource and that affects military results.
It's a brutal calculus but that's the truth of warfare.
*And in reality human life has no intrinsic value. It's value is determined by the values given to it by each society. In modern west that's a lot more than say in sub Saharan Africa. But even modern west has different values on different lives - eg life of a single western mass murderer has more value than that of a 1000 Palestinian or Yemeni children. Hence west keeps the murderer in a comfortable gaol whilst it sells weapons to its "allies" to kill the Palestinian and Yemenis en masse.
No, if one believes there can be an 'art of warfare'.
I think you know and understand the expression 'phyrric victory'. That much about just winning battles.
Neglecting and and as a consequence wasting lifes almost lost 1917 WWi for France (Nivelle).
Do you really think, that in a war no one dies from a bullet on purpose from the own side?
Why do you think that in 1917 Russian soldiers started to kill their officers?
That much about wasting lives without any consequences.
Oh I understand concept of pyrrhic victory.
However Zhukov and other Soviet commanders didn't win a pyrrhic victory, they won a decisive one that turned the USSR into a global superpower, complete with Eastern Europe to expand Russia's political control to the west!
I think there's probably a lot more calculus in lives wasted than people merely being unhappy with their lives being thrown away. Eg Japanese but also many Germans did it with gusto. Japanese died by their hundred thousands in suicidal charges. Death rates were often close to 100%.
There's a lot of other factors - societal cohesion, perceptions of fairness and equality, social values.
The guys who were shooting their officers or at least inspiring others to do so in Russia in 1917 were also the guys who then took over the country and fought WWII (aka Communists).
They were literally utilising a lot of grievances against the Tzar. Remember there was an attempted revolution in 1905. People were unhappy and Nicholas II a very weak ruler.
Stalin on the other hand had created a cult. Yes there were some who opposed him (eg Ukrainian nationalists under Stjepan Bandera and Andriy Melnyk). But overall cult Stalin was strong. People were already used to death and suffering during the previous 30+ years of chaos.
Communism brought them suffering but also progress - electricity, education, healthcare and most critically a perception of relative equality.
And first the Soviet people were buoyed by need to defend against the fascists and then the desire for revenge. Now remember the French who mainly sat out WWII after being whooped in 1940 in under 7 weeks. Most just ignored the panzers as they drove through French cities. No mass partisan movements (this only really got going in late 1943-1944).
Hence it's easy to see the Russians were far more willing to suffer brutal casualties than say equivalent western units and populace.
Also incidentally the country that really won the pyrrhic victory was Great Britain. For fighting the whole war from 1939-45, it was left a bankrupt state that quickly started losing its empire, power and prestige.
As usual my 5 cents for the round:
1) Trump: What he will be for Russia or Ukraine depends mainly how they treat his ego. Hint:: Go back in history and find out, why he decided to run for President at all. For this one one should know a certain video, where Obama publicly ridiculed Trump among his peers.
2) Self ruling of units: This works only till a certain level, but sorry for ruining dreams is no solution for the entire front line. For this (i.e. the whole front line) functioning higher organisation levels are a demand (divisions, corps...)
3) No matter how qualified a fighting force is, without adequate supply lines it will lead to nothing.
4) Syrsky and neglecting human life: I do not know his attitude and will nerver know, as for this I would have to talk to him directly, which will never happen.
So I fall back to occam's razor. With his obsession for micromanagment he will work down the list of battalions in a strict order, which means he will always be too late with his decisions.
Such a method can only work for small engagements.
The bigger the list gets by constant creation of new units the more he will be too late with his decisions.
Hey Tom, someday's chicken some days feathers--- a nice feather's Day for cheering us up as best can be done!
This is indeed good news if local commanders can keep it going. There is no excuse not to. And it looks like Biden finally raised targeting restrictions.