Hello everybody! So much is going on the last two days - in Ukraine and in the Middle East - that I can’t even decide what way to look as first and what to comment about. Even less so can I summarise all of this in form of ‘useful’ articles - at once. Sure, I’ll try, but…
Thanks Tom. I know you are overloaded but can’t stop myself asking you another unrelated to your article but not to the topic question: any news on the assault yesterday on Avdiivka by the Russians? It seems they put again a big column in motion but did they have any (partial) success? The video that several ZSU channels published was not very conclusive
As described by Don, yesterday, the situation north of Avdiivka - in such that the Russian UAVs are systematically destroying Ukrainian defence positions in the Stepove area. Thus, Ukrainians most of the time do not even have troops there: they're waiting for Russian assaults to the west of the village. When the Russians come in, they regularly enter the village: then Ukrainians launch a counterattack and 'mop up' them... That's why many videos are 'inconclusive': showing mere seconds of action often lasting days.
Thanks but this time I’m not talking about a T-90 or a wanna be Wagner group. A huge column. And the direction is not Stepove. And if you look at the published casualties by ZSU, there is a big uptick in both people and destroyed vehicles but whether the column was destroyed or it gained some ground - I don’t know.
And on the topic, I wonder why ZSU doesn’t plan one more move - in case they successfully shoot down the A-50, why not send a missile/drone barrage to Crimea afterwards!?
To add to the historical picture: since the Il-20/22 are based on the very old Il-18 civilian passenger aircraft (roughly equivalent to a Lockheed Electra) RF had a project that was to develop substitutes based on the Tu-204. Again basically nothing moved also in this case. Plus the solution was always “let’s pack everything in 3 planes instead of one”.
Well, they did develop the Tu-214R, and this saw a lots of action over Syria, back in 2016-2018, but only 3-4 were ever built, and never saw them in ops against Ukraine.
Hi Tom, excellent interview. It is very helpful for me being able to listen to your explanations for 10 minutes without interruptions, as this explains the complex topics very sharp and candid. Chapeau!
As always, thanks for the information and explanation. I would like to ask that you refrain from calling the situation in Gaza, etc. "genocide". The term is very popular right now but is also very misconstrued and very emotionally charged to anyone remembering the Holocaust. The UN excludes acts of war against a political group from the definition of genocide which seems to apply to the Israeli action against political group, not the people who are unfortunate victims. It does include acts against religious groups, so I wonder if the definition will need to be somehow revised in light of the current situation. How can you have a war against an enemy whose core religious belief includes extermination of your people/country without it being labelled "genocide"? The rule was written to prevent another Holocaust but seemingly failed to anticipate the Shia/Sunni hatred or the Islam vs. Christianity hatred.
Please, be so kind and refrain from such instructions: I'm fed-up of bigotry of devoted Israel-supporters without an end (as much as of bigotry of 'Hamas-supporters').
Accept it: I'm critical of EVERYBODY (including myself), and I'll not let anybody silence me, no matter what reason. Or, if you can't accept what I say: do not read my blog.
Otherwise I can only ask you if the Holocaust was the only genocide ever, and why are you ignorant of the fact that the Zionist ideology is envisaging mass murder and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians already since the late 19th Century - because already Theodor Herzl knew the territory is densely populated and there's no other way to create his Erez Israel as an 'ethnically pure' construction? Isn't that a 'core religious belief'?
If you think it's not, I think it's better we two do not continue this conversation.
I guess it comes down to my linguistic preference for precision in choice of words. As I have said before, the situation in the Middle East is far too complex and far too foreign to me for me to have any opinion on the actions of the involved parties. If you wish to continue referring to it as "genocide" that is your choice, obviously. The tricky part of that decision comes when the UN has to rule on this being Genocide and determines that it is not because of the political nature of the involved groups and the legal definition of the term. At that point, everyone calling it "genocide" is going to be in an uproar over the injustice of the UN decision.
The problem I see is every war from now on is going to be labelled "genocide". Something so seemingly simple as the Houthi attacks on shipping- retaliation will be genocide because of their religious beliefs?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is another one referred to as genocide yet seems to be an obvious land-grab.
Today: "...the Israelis continue genociding the Palestinians," Again, I may be wrong and your use of the term may be completely accurate. It's a nuanced bit and my ignorance of the situation leads me to be conservative in my assessment rather than assume the worst.
Like in the case of S-300 and S-400: everything depends on the version of the missile. There are versions with semi-active radar homing (that's what you're describing), versions with active radar homing, and versions with home-on-jamming homing.
Can you tell more about home-to-jam regime of missle. Have it used before against flying targets? As I know it is first case when such a plane was shot down, at least by ground-air missile
Very good analysis, learned a lot. There's a lot of unpack here as well. Like what did the Ukrainians use to hit Crimea, and How possible is it for Russia to put the other operational AEW A-50s back in service. It seems likely they'll have to put a lot of money into the other 2 and keep them operational but this is a huge loss.
Thanks Tom. I know you are overloaded but can’t stop myself asking you another unrelated to your article but not to the topic question: any news on the assault yesterday on Avdiivka by the Russians? It seems they put again a big column in motion but did they have any (partial) success? The video that several ZSU channels published was not very conclusive
As described by Don, yesterday, the situation north of Avdiivka - in such that the Russian UAVs are systematically destroying Ukrainian defence positions in the Stepove area. Thus, Ukrainians most of the time do not even have troops there: they're waiting for Russian assaults to the west of the village. When the Russians come in, they regularly enter the village: then Ukrainians launch a counterattack and 'mop up' them... That's why many videos are 'inconclusive': showing mere seconds of action often lasting days.
Thanks but this time I’m not talking about a T-90 or a wanna be Wagner group. A huge column. And the direction is not Stepove. And if you look at the published casualties by ZSU, there is a big uptick in both people and destroyed vehicles but whether the column was destroyed or it gained some ground - I don’t know.
And on the topic, I wonder why ZSU doesn’t plan one more move - in case they successfully shoot down the A-50, why not send a missile/drone barrage to Crimea afterwards!?
https://twitter.com/tungphat1/status/1747163647196148005#m
They attacked positions of the 110th Mech - and were smashed. Details to follow.
OK, I'll check...
https://t.me/s/BUAR110ombr
Thank you, very informative update
Thanks Tom, we really appreciate how you explain the events . . . .kind regards
Also, it should be noted, it's the first case when AEW was shot down.
To add to the historical picture: since the Il-20/22 are based on the very old Il-18 civilian passenger aircraft (roughly equivalent to a Lockheed Electra) RF had a project that was to develop substitutes based on the Tu-204. Again basically nothing moved also in this case. Plus the solution was always “let’s pack everything in 3 planes instead of one”.
Well, they did develop the Tu-214R, and this saw a lots of action over Syria, back in 2016-2018, but only 3-4 were ever built, and never saw them in ops against Ukraine.
https://www.google.no/url?q=https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/09/24/russia-is-testing-a-tu-214r-reconnaissance-aircraft-over-ukraine/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiUp6WUhOWDAxXzKxAIHR_FDdQQFnoECAQQAg&usg=AOvVaw0-IpEXNdIIoSQOWb4R3vWd
Fantastic explainer, really appreciate your articles!
Thanks for the great lesson on things I didn’t know I didn’t know but am glad I now do (to a small extent)
If someone wants more Tom, Youtube has a fresh video with them.
https://youtu.be/NJw7AtXp1eE?si=ZH4b1Tx9SHUuUqa1
Great, thx!
Hi Tom, excellent interview. It is very helpful for me being able to listen to your explanations for 10 minutes without interruptions, as this explains the complex topics very sharp and candid. Chapeau!
As always, thanks for the information and explanation. I would like to ask that you refrain from calling the situation in Gaza, etc. "genocide". The term is very popular right now but is also very misconstrued and very emotionally charged to anyone remembering the Holocaust. The UN excludes acts of war against a political group from the definition of genocide which seems to apply to the Israeli action against political group, not the people who are unfortunate victims. It does include acts against religious groups, so I wonder if the definition will need to be somehow revised in light of the current situation. How can you have a war against an enemy whose core religious belief includes extermination of your people/country without it being labelled "genocide"? The rule was written to prevent another Holocaust but seemingly failed to anticipate the Shia/Sunni hatred or the Islam vs. Christianity hatred.
Please, be so kind and refrain from such instructions: I'm fed-up of bigotry of devoted Israel-supporters without an end (as much as of bigotry of 'Hamas-supporters').
Accept it: I'm critical of EVERYBODY (including myself), and I'll not let anybody silence me, no matter what reason. Or, if you can't accept what I say: do not read my blog.
Otherwise I can only ask you if the Holocaust was the only genocide ever, and why are you ignorant of the fact that the Zionist ideology is envisaging mass murder and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians already since the late 19th Century - because already Theodor Herzl knew the territory is densely populated and there's no other way to create his Erez Israel as an 'ethnically pure' construction? Isn't that a 'core religious belief'?
If you think it's not, I think it's better we two do not continue this conversation.
I guess it comes down to my linguistic preference for precision in choice of words. As I have said before, the situation in the Middle East is far too complex and far too foreign to me for me to have any opinion on the actions of the involved parties. If you wish to continue referring to it as "genocide" that is your choice, obviously. The tricky part of that decision comes when the UN has to rule on this being Genocide and determines that it is not because of the political nature of the involved groups and the legal definition of the term. At that point, everyone calling it "genocide" is going to be in an uproar over the injustice of the UN decision.
And it may well turn out to be a genocide! I don't know enough about it.
The problem I see is every war from now on is going to be labelled "genocide". Something so seemingly simple as the Houthi attacks on shipping- retaliation will be genocide because of their religious beliefs?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is another one referred to as genocide yet seems to be an obvious land-grab.
Well, actually, that's easy: here's a list of my books (at least those published by Helion & Co) https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php.
Be so kind, go through them and then please tell me how often and in what cases did I use the word 'genocide'.
Otherwise, you're simply talking about somebody else: not about me, because I'm using that expression in the case of only 3-4 conflicts since 1945.
Today: "...the Israelis continue genociding the Palestinians," Again, I may be wrong and your use of the term may be completely accurate. It's a nuanced bit and my ignorance of the situation leads me to be conservative in my assessment rather than assume the worst.
as original as this?https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/16/ukrainian-crews-set-a-complex-missile-trap-for-russias-best-radar-plane/?sh=2cba7f9b3566
Thank you very much. It is lovely to follow your thinking. Thank you for all the efforts you put into your work.
Спасибо
Thank you, Tom, this is supremely clear, concise snd enlightening. Much appreciated, as ever.
Anothe example of well researched and informative post, Tom.
Also, another example how routine respond movements goes against itself (and how ingenious Ukrainians are).
Is my understanding correct, that Patriot needs continuously illuminate the target until the interceptor either hits or misses the target?
Like in the case of S-300 and S-400: everything depends on the version of the missile. There are versions with semi-active radar homing (that's what you're describing), versions with active radar homing, and versions with home-on-jamming homing.
Can you tell more about home-to-jam regime of missle. Have it used before against flying targets? As I know it is first case when such a plane was shot down, at least by ground-air missile
Thanks Tom!
Very good analysis, learned a lot. There's a lot of unpack here as well. Like what did the Ukrainians use to hit Crimea, and How possible is it for Russia to put the other operational AEW A-50s back in service. It seems likely they'll have to put a lot of money into the other 2 and keep them operational but this is a huge loss.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/16/ukrainian-crews-set-a-complex-missile-trap-for-russias-best-radar-plane/?sh=2cba7f9b3566