Old English maps used to put ‘Here be dragons’ on areas where no one knew what existed there. Perhaps worth resurrecting this for the current situation?
It will be necessary to rename this place to «Suddenly ZSU» and put road signs as at the beginning of the invasion with the direction of travel in the desired direction.
Well, it's "sudden" (adjective, not adverb), but anyway, a very appropriate name for current events. Especially for a place located so close to the border.
I wonder what names will people be giving to new/rebuilt post-war villages. Sad to see how many current names are derived from the word "peace" (probably under impressions from WW2) - and utterly devastated by yet another war...
Tom, I noticed that you have the 88th Mech marked on the map. There is very little information about this unit, but there are some reasons to think that it is a decoy/deception unit and doesn't actually exist. What is your take on that?
I've been trying to figure the 88th out for a while. I think it's a kind of holding unit - a shell that constantly lends pieces out.
So as a soldier you're assigned to it nominally, but always chopped to some other brigade. Would explain why they don't produce much geolocated footage. Though some outfits (82AA) are better at OPSEC than others.
Good evening Tom, many thanks for making the effort to inform us readers so well. I do have a question, so it would be great if you believe, it is the right time and space to enter.
Given the “agile” Kursk situation and the significant amount of Russian POWs, do you believe chances are somehow increasing/hopes reasonable, that this might be the beginning of so significant cracks in the Russian military, that this whole special operation might collapse due to large parts of the Russian military not willing to continue this way?
Expecting no yes/no answer and I know, predictions are nothing you are particular keen on making, so just hoping for some thoughts/perspectives from you 🙃.
No idea, really. I'm bad in predictions. Was surprised already by the sudden collapse of the Communist Bloc, back in 1989, and then the USSR, in 1990-1991...
Well, it sounds to me like the UA needs to go hunting some Akhmat units. Shove all the RU forces up against them, then hit them so they break (given their track record, no pun intended, that shouldn't be too hard), the whole thing goes in a massive flood. Nothing routes better than a disorganized mob that is panicking.
Thank for report. Kursk operation definitely demonstrate why relying solely on untrained forces isn't a good idea.
I find quite confusing your statement about ban of Himars use by Trio Fabtasticus. Even on pictures of bridge in this report there are clearly visible holes, almost identical to ones on bridge in Kherson. The bridge was very likely finished by Jdams, but there are evidences, like today's video of Russian night strike, where there were missiles detonations as well as post strike images of wrecks , where was something similar to Oshkosh track or Himars (video isn't top quality)
Anyway, Russians today claimed to kill Syrsky by Iskander, so it reminded me about strike of 6 August where they claimed to kill 4 generals. Do you have any new info about what really happened there?
Thanks Tom! Love how the FSB idiots are running the operation in Kursk. For all his faults, Gerasimov was quick to leave pockets and cauldrons while the FSB idiots seem not only to have issued an order to stay put and not move an inch but are also rushing reinforcements inside just before being encircled.
Russia always kills generals, presidents, aliens as soon as it looses. So, no need to comment idiotic PRBS messages: 3 of 4 claimed as killed generals were to see alive many times. The 4th one - very unpublic person, so they could easily “have killed him 4 years before”
Syrsky is one of the most valuable ruzz asset. Nobody in ZSU granted them so much Ukrainian territory like him. They'll never kill him or his close relatives in ruzzia, but will continue to convince you opposite.
Ukrainian intervention into ruzz territory opens new abilities for puding with critical shortage of cannon fodder
One could claim Zaluzhny lost all that territory in the first 6 months after Russia's initial invasion, only to eventually get a good chunk of it back; given the grinding nature of attritional warfare, it was inevitable that land would be lost this year, in return for significant casualties inflicted.
On the other hand, Syrski's push into Kursk Oblast has obviously caught Russia with its pants around its ankles, and seeing as the front STILL has not been stabilized by Russia, this move has clearly been a great morale boost for Ukraine, an embarrassment for Gerasimov and hilarious, watching the likes of Solovyov rant like he did when the Moskva was lost, Kerch Bridge hit, Snake Island lost, or his villa, lost.
If the masses of men surrendering are any indicator, and there's no reason to think your comment that Putin will somehow rally the country to arms is anything but troll army bullshit, I really do not see this invasion being anything but a smart move.
Let's not forget that in 8 months of 2024 Russia has taken 992km2 while in 6 days Ukraine has taken over 1000km.
Most importantly, Russia has not stabilized the front as of today, despite Gerasimov's daily lie that it has.
Dear Tom, thank you for reports! I have a question that you might know at least some answers. I am trying to understand how big is impact of Kursk in terms of numbers. And it seems that those losses are not getting to daily stats. What gets though into stats are KABs, arty, if I understand it correctly. And then this is reported separately for "Hortytsa" and total: https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind
Before "Hortytsa" was almost equal (90%) to total (there was only South beside it). Now I see a significant number of KAB, like 60%+ is shifted away, obviously to Kursk, but not so arty.
Also keeping in mind several effective strikes on ABs. I am back to wondering what is a limiting factor for airstrikes, and those with KABs? It is still almost steady in total. So maybe it is not airframes or munitions, but pilots really?
And same goes for arty. It seems that it was enough time to move arty pieces to Kursk, plus they have quite extra of those. So maybe it is moving shells? Could it be they are already evenly distributed around the front lines? I do not see any reason for relative lack of arty in Kursk.
Right now, no clue. I'm running no such statistics (actually: ignoring it): my principal interest is 'operations' and 'lessons learned'.... or 'how things work, or not, and why'. Thus, really, no idea right now. Statistics means very little to me, because my experience is that, even if 1000% on the mark, it can still be deceiving.
I'll try to find out how is the number of KAB/UMPKs developing, though.
I see. I am just trying to look trough numbers at how things work, just because numbers are telling stories if viewed in the proper context. Let me say I can sometimes make numbers simple enough so that they start making sense.
Maybe the Kursk battlefield isn't static enough for them to be able to use much arty yet. It sounds like they're still rushing reinforcements everywhere without knowing where their targets are.
Not likely, KABs in their execution require even more static battlefield, as far as I understand. But now out of 100 KABs a day 60 come in Kursk-Sumy area. And out of 4500 arty strikes a day, 225 come in Kursk area. So 60% concentration vs 5% concentration.
Would all of the Kursk KAB's being thrown right now be properly targeted, or would many be blindly tossed so they can look like they are doing something?
Honestly have no idea, but I think they are still targeting them, just because of the nature of battlefield, the precision and timing, which were not top already, is much worse.
Stefan Korshak has also blogged about the low use of arty. He has also mentioned that the UAF has hit RF drone services very hard in Kursk, so perhaps a shortage of drone spotters is a contributing factor.
This feels like what the zaporizhzhian offensive was supposed to be, i just hope that Ukraine keep this up for a long time and kuddle/capture many more of these assholes
This truly is my favourite time of day. When Sarcastosaurus gives us another update 🙂.
Interesting details about the bridges ("it's all a question of bridges") and the Chechens rounding up Russian units unwilling to die for the Motherland.
I mean...just reread what I've just typed.
"Chechens rounding up Russian units unwilling to die for the Motherland."
Cossacks were also pacified in a string of merciless campaigns 300 years ago, after which they became the most brutal enforcers of the Tsar's will. (They even dealt with Chechens!)
Thanks for your overtime and its of course also a little amusing that the ZSU is currently keeping not only the Russians but also you pretty busy.
Half of the time I read your post I spend desperately trying to find the many different places, something we haven't done for a long time when we talk about actions by the ZSU
Thanks for the update. Highlight of the day now. But I wonder about one thing. You wrote: UPDATE: RUMINT from this afternoon is that all the bridges over the Seym west of Korenovo have been knocked out and the FSB-gangs are now… erm… advancing in panic over the river using boats…
Assuming that Rumint is correct, I just wonder. Did the Russians destroy the bridges to stop Ukrainian progress or did Ukraina do it to stop the forces from withdrawing. Maybe I should have understood it, but I didnt, so I Ask for clarification.
The objective seems to be to trap the ca. 700 Russian troops who are surrounded on three sides by Ukrainian military and the fourth side is a river with no bridges.
Two bridges are confirmed to have been dropped by JDAMs. No idea about the third, yet.
Though, yes, the Russians are already 'advancing' by boats to the northern side... It would be good to catch them, though, because they're FSB: Pudding is ready to exchange 3-10 Ukrainian POWs for every 1 FSB.
Funny to see a total misunderstanding of FSB structure. "FSB troops" - they are simple border guards, not special units like "Alfa". They are formally FSB, but effectively ordinary soldiers, which you can see when cross the border of any country. Noone will exchange them at special ratio. As I was pointing out previously, Ru side also did dozens of such "catches" when pushed into Kharkov region early this year, capturing borderguards and similar secondary troops.
Yeah, I get that the literal border guards are FSB; but when we talk about the FSB being given responsibility for the operational area, and FSB units being rushed to the area, are we still talking border guard units? Are the men sent to secure the NPP and build the defenses along the N38, border guards? I realize Rosgvardia is also in this mix, but I've read that there is a mix of unit types involved and FSB keeps coming up as some of the units.
I thought the order guards were better trained than this. I also recall during the KGB days that KGB Border guards had such things as QRF units, etc, which no one thinks they're Secret Agents, but also don't think they are policemen with truncheons and a handheld 'stop' sign.
Seem the Glushkovsky Bridge is destroyed already https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1824453770564055126
"no idea what’s going on in this area”. Neither do the Russians.
Old English maps used to put ‘Here be dragons’ on areas where no one knew what existed there. Perhaps worth resurrecting this for the current situation?
"Dragon" is the name of TOS-3 MLRS
It's also the callsign of one of my comrades-in-arms currently fighting there. :D
Thus very appropriate?
Yep :)
The Romans wrote "hic sunt Leones"...here are lions. Also a proverb for entering dangerous fields.
Thanks!
Good news.
Korenevo and those 11th guys made it feel like a deadlock. Glad it'll got sorted out...
Also, for first I just could not guess who busted that bridge... Both way makes sense, although in a different way.
"Vnezapnoe" is translated as "suddenly".
It will be necessary to rename this place to «Suddenly ZSU» and put road signs as at the beginning of the invasion with the direction of travel in the desired direction.
Well, it's "sudden" (adjective, not adverb), but anyway, a very appropriate name for current events. Especially for a place located so close to the border.
I wonder what names will people be giving to new/rebuilt post-war villages. Sad to see how many current names are derived from the word "peace" (probably under impressions from WW2) - and utterly devastated by yet another war...
Tom, I noticed that you have the 88th Mech marked on the map. There is very little information about this unit, but there are some reasons to think that it is a decoy/deception unit and doesn't actually exist. What is your take on that?
For ZSU-units with which I'm not in touch, I'm orientating on the MilitaryLand.net. They've got a 'standard' entry for that brigade::
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/armed-forces/88th-mechanized-brigade/
....and the 88th has its FB-presence, too:
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100089986766095
So, if it's a decoy, it's an excellent one.
I've been trying to figure the 88th out for a while. I think it's a kind of holding unit - a shell that constantly lends pieces out.
So as a soldier you're assigned to it nominally, but always chopped to some other brigade. Would explain why they don't produce much geolocated footage. Though some outfits (82AA) are better at OPSEC than others.
Good evening Tom, many thanks for making the effort to inform us readers so well. I do have a question, so it would be great if you believe, it is the right time and space to enter.
Given the “agile” Kursk situation and the significant amount of Russian POWs, do you believe chances are somehow increasing/hopes reasonable, that this might be the beginning of so significant cracks in the Russian military, that this whole special operation might collapse due to large parts of the Russian military not willing to continue this way?
Expecting no yes/no answer and I know, predictions are nothing you are particular keen on making, so just hoping for some thoughts/perspectives from you 🙃.
No idea, really. I'm bad in predictions. Was surprised already by the sudden collapse of the Communist Bloc, back in 1989, and then the USSR, in 1990-1991...
Thank you and happy weekend!
It's hard to make predictions, especially in case it affects the future.
Its easy to make, hard to succeed. But you can always predict and then cherrypick what you hit!
Well, it sounds to me like the UA needs to go hunting some Akhmat units. Shove all the RU forces up against them, then hit them so they break (given their track record, no pun intended, that shouldn't be too hard), the whole thing goes in a massive flood. Nothing routes better than a disorganized mob that is panicking.
Be sure, the 155th NIB is going to be the first. Akhmats the second.
I am sure that the Ukrainians are white hot with anger against 155th NIB.
These Akhmat battalions are too smart for getting caught, though.
Too fast you mean. I have a personal grudge against those ass hats and any time some can end up dead I'm down for it.
We have this expression in Greek: "the fugitive's mother never cried"
Oh I really enjoy this report Tom thanks ever so much
Thank for report. Kursk operation definitely demonstrate why relying solely on untrained forces isn't a good idea.
I find quite confusing your statement about ban of Himars use by Trio Fabtasticus. Even on pictures of bridge in this report there are clearly visible holes, almost identical to ones on bridge in Kherson. The bridge was very likely finished by Jdams, but there are evidences, like today's video of Russian night strike, where there were missiles detonations as well as post strike images of wrecks , where was something similar to Oshkosh track or Himars (video isn't top quality)
Anyway, Russians today claimed to kill Syrsky by Iskander, so it reminded me about strike of 6 August where they claimed to kill 4 generals. Do you have any new info about what really happened there?
Thanks Tom! Love how the FSB idiots are running the operation in Kursk. For all his faults, Gerasimov was quick to leave pockets and cauldrons while the FSB idiots seem not only to have issued an order to stay put and not move an inch but are also rushing reinforcements inside just before being encircled.
Ah, the old Waffen-SS way of war. Hello, old friend, have fun proving once more why this is a really bad idea.
Russia always kills generals, presidents, aliens as soon as it looses. So, no need to comment idiotic PRBS messages: 3 of 4 claimed as killed generals were to see alive many times. The 4th one - very unpublic person, so they could easily “have killed him 4 years before”
Syrsky is one of the most valuable ruzz asset. Nobody in ZSU granted them so much Ukrainian territory like him. They'll never kill him or his close relatives in ruzzia, but will continue to convince you opposite.
Ukrainian intervention into ruzz territory opens new abilities for puding with critical shortage of cannon fodder
Rather a droll and unenlightened comment.
One could claim Zaluzhny lost all that territory in the first 6 months after Russia's initial invasion, only to eventually get a good chunk of it back; given the grinding nature of attritional warfare, it was inevitable that land would be lost this year, in return for significant casualties inflicted.
On the other hand, Syrski's push into Kursk Oblast has obviously caught Russia with its pants around its ankles, and seeing as the front STILL has not been stabilized by Russia, this move has clearly been a great morale boost for Ukraine, an embarrassment for Gerasimov and hilarious, watching the likes of Solovyov rant like he did when the Moskva was lost, Kerch Bridge hit, Snake Island lost, or his villa, lost.
If the masses of men surrendering are any indicator, and there's no reason to think your comment that Putin will somehow rally the country to arms is anything but troll army bullshit, I really do not see this invasion being anything but a smart move.
Let's not forget that in 8 months of 2024 Russia has taken 992km2 while in 6 days Ukraine has taken over 1000km.
Most importantly, Russia has not stabilized the front as of today, despite Gerasimov's daily lie that it has.
Dear Tom, thank you for reports! I have a question that you might know at least some answers. I am trying to understand how big is impact of Kursk in terms of numbers. And it seems that those losses are not getting to daily stats. What gets though into stats are KABs, arty, if I understand it correctly. And then this is reported separately for "Hortytsa" and total: https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind
Before "Hortytsa" was almost equal (90%) to total (there was only South beside it). Now I see a significant number of KAB, like 60%+ is shifted away, obviously to Kursk, but not so arty.
Also keeping in mind several effective strikes on ABs. I am back to wondering what is a limiting factor for airstrikes, and those with KABs? It is still almost steady in total. So maybe it is not airframes or munitions, but pilots really?
And same goes for arty. It seems that it was enough time to move arty pieces to Kursk, plus they have quite extra of those. So maybe it is moving shells? Could it be they are already evenly distributed around the front lines? I do not see any reason for relative lack of arty in Kursk.
Good questions, Zenith.
Right now, no clue. I'm running no such statistics (actually: ignoring it): my principal interest is 'operations' and 'lessons learned'.... or 'how things work, or not, and why'. Thus, really, no idea right now. Statistics means very little to me, because my experience is that, even if 1000% on the mark, it can still be deceiving.
I'll try to find out how is the number of KAB/UMPKs developing, though.
I see. I am just trying to look trough numbers at how things work, just because numbers are telling stories if viewed in the proper context. Let me say I can sometimes make numbers simple enough so that they start making sense.
Agree with the Numbers in the right context. Both are difficult to find.
Maybe the Kursk battlefield isn't static enough for them to be able to use much arty yet. It sounds like they're still rushing reinforcements everywhere without knowing where their targets are.
Not likely, KABs in their execution require even more static battlefield, as far as I understand. But now out of 100 KABs a day 60 come in Kursk-Sumy area. And out of 4500 arty strikes a day, 225 come in Kursk area. So 60% concentration vs 5% concentration.
Would all of the Kursk KAB's being thrown right now be properly targeted, or would many be blindly tossed so they can look like they are doing something?
Honestly have no idea, but I think they are still targeting them, just because of the nature of battlefield, the precision and timing, which were not top already, is much worse.
Stefan Korshak has also blogged about the low use of arty. He has also mentioned that the UAF has hit RF drone services very hard in Kursk, so perhaps a shortage of drone spotters is a contributing factor.
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/august-17-day-904-back-at-it-and/comments
This feels like what the zaporizhzhian offensive was supposed to be, i just hope that Ukraine keep this up for a long time and kuddle/capture many more of these assholes
This truly is my favourite time of day. When Sarcastosaurus gives us another update 🙂.
Interesting details about the bridges ("it's all a question of bridges") and the Chechens rounding up Russian units unwilling to die for the Motherland.
I mean...just reread what I've just typed.
"Chechens rounding up Russian units unwilling to die for the Motherland."
What a time to be alive 🧐
There must be someone ready to round up the Chechens if they don't do their rounding up willingly enough.
Cossacks were also pacified in a string of merciless campaigns 300 years ago, after which they became the most brutal enforcers of the Tsar's will. (They even dealt with Chechens!)
Thanks for your overtime and its of course also a little amusing that the ZSU is currently keeping not only the Russians but also you pretty busy.
Half of the time I read your post I spend desperately trying to find the many different places, something we haven't done for a long time when we talk about actions by the ZSU
Thanks for the update. Highlight of the day now. But I wonder about one thing. You wrote: UPDATE: RUMINT from this afternoon is that all the bridges over the Seym west of Korenovo have been knocked out and the FSB-gangs are now… erm… advancing in panic over the river using boats…
Assuming that Rumint is correct, I just wonder. Did the Russians destroy the bridges to stop Ukrainian progress or did Ukraina do it to stop the forces from withdrawing. Maybe I should have understood it, but I didnt, so I Ask for clarification.
The objective seems to be to trap the ca. 700 Russian troops who are surrounded on three sides by Ukrainian military and the fourth side is a river with no bridges.
Two bridges are confirmed to have been dropped by JDAMs. No idea about the third, yet.
Though, yes, the Russians are already 'advancing' by boats to the northern side... It would be good to catch them, though, because they're FSB: Pudding is ready to exchange 3-10 Ukrainian POWs for every 1 FSB.
Thx
Funny to see a total misunderstanding of FSB structure. "FSB troops" - they are simple border guards, not special units like "Alfa". They are formally FSB, but effectively ordinary soldiers, which you can see when cross the border of any country. Noone will exchange them at special ratio. As I was pointing out previously, Ru side also did dozens of such "catches" when pushed into Kharkov region early this year, capturing borderguards and similar secondary troops.
Yup. Absolutely unimportant for Putin. Just like all the other Russians that are no FSB.
That's why Moscow insists on a prisoner exchange at earliest possible date.
Yeah, I get that the literal border guards are FSB; but when we talk about the FSB being given responsibility for the operational area, and FSB units being rushed to the area, are we still talking border guard units? Are the men sent to secure the NPP and build the defenses along the N38, border guards? I realize Rosgvardia is also in this mix, but I've read that there is a mix of unit types involved and FSB keeps coming up as some of the units.
I thought the order guards were better trained than this. I also recall during the KGB days that KGB Border guards had such things as QRF units, etc, which no one thinks they're Secret Agents, but also don't think they are policemen with truncheons and a handheld 'stop' sign.
Rylsk-Lg'ov-Belaya - nice line, if Ukraine can reach it. Almost exactly the length of the border area Ukraine was guarding before.
This feels so strangely familiar I almost feel like Syrskyi and I read a lot of the same books.