Another, ‘brief one‘ – but today with a few maps, to bring us up-to-date with latest deployments of Russian units. AIR/MISSILE WARFARE Early on 14 September, the Russians released a stream of 22 Shaheds; 17 were claimed as shot down by the PSU, but the rest scored several hits in the Izmail area again.
With the Japanese surrender Washington and Moscow agreed to divide Korea at the 38th parallel where the DMZ currently is, in Aug 1945.
A ceasefire here now is not remotely similar in its geographic and geopolitical implication. It means Ukraine loses a huge geography, is strategically and economically hobbled, remains insecure, and loses massive resources also.
While Moscow wins strategic, territorial and resource advantage as reward for aggression.
Of course, let stop this war and give Putin more land. Of course, he will stop. We are confident, that in 5-10 years he will not collect new army, whereas Ukraine stay destroyed and without any EU and NATO. And,of course, Ukraine will not try to create massive destruction weapon, which is only real guarant of safety.
Even if such a peace were viable for Ukraine's prosperity (it is not) and acceptable to the general population (not so far I guess), there is the military, many of whom have seen their brothers in arms die to restore Ukraine's sovereign territory. The military will be much more hard line about this, and, I believe will ensure Ukraine keeps fighting to restore its territory.
The question is when the bellingerents both accept that there is no hope of gaining more. None of them are there yet. Both are hoping to win the game of attrition and/or position.
No, that is not what occurred. The fight was vicious and dynamic. A ceasefire was only viable once the pre-war 'borderline' had been reestablished, and a DMZ agreed to. That has not occurred in Ukraine yet.
Who will warrant the peace in 5 or 10 years when the Russians recover from the defeat of the first months of war and build tens of thousands of strike drones and missiles? They will assault Kyiv again, as they did now, notwithstanding their controlling Crimea and Donbas.
Putin has a track record of freezing conflicts, and not much of a record of Stalin-style subjugation of hostile populations. I don't think this is a dichotomy between "romp home to Crimea and retake LNR/DNR" on the one hand, and a second Holodomor on the other. And the former certainly would not demilitarize Russia. A 1990s style collapse of an already radicalized state isn't very appealing either. There are no good options.
Thank you for the report. Ukrainian media are very modest about hitting Donetsk or Lugansk. As to the damaged "Vasil Bykov" today a video was published which confirmed the hit. Russian sources denied any damage as usual.
Ukrainian media reported today that Russian ship Samoom was attacked and seriously damaged near Sevastopol by the Ukrainian experimental drone Sea Baby. Such drones were used for the successful attack on the Kerch bridge.
Looking at that bulge, extending from Kopani-Rivne to Verbove, I find it hard to believe the Russian defending forces are more than 2 brigades worth of units at a time (if regiments, it should be slighty more). 30-35 km deep and 20-25 km wide, suggest the Ukr. managed to defeat 2 Russian Brigades, in their prepared positions, which is not an easy thing to do, especially without support from an Air Force. At what cost, it remains to be seen. Bad thing for them, for more than 10 days already, they have not managed to level the front line or to widen the penetration, left and right. This is what you are supposed to do after the initial penetration, introduce new forces on the flanks and widen the penetration. Good thing for them, the Russians have not managed to reduce the width of the penetration or close it, also.
Standard doctrines are all thrown out of the window in this war. So is also standard organisation of units and the battlefield - and that on both sides.
If I'm to ask, nothing is the way it used to be, and/or was thought would be in future wars.
That may well be. And that is exactly why I don't pay too much attention on open source maps, they are reliable to only show the "trend". From the few captured maps I saw, I would have to say nothing was out of the ordinary. Yes, there were some odd things, but I don't know the context so can't label them as mistakes or "out of the ordinary". In the Brigade level map (1:25000 is the clue) of the Russian and Ukr. disposition around Novodarivka and Rivnopil, everything is done the right way, sort to say, for both sides. I am sorry I can't post it here, I can't find how to do it, but is atatched in RUSI's latest, let's call it analysis for the lack of a better word, at page 6. Like I said earlier, some strange things, like Russians not marking their artillery and their future intent but everything else is top notch. I've also seen the marching diagram of a Russian Marine Infantry battalion commander, some small mistakes but created from composition, not his fault and a couple more Brigade/Regiment level captured maps from various sectors of the front and from various timelines. Nothing too out of the ordinary.
Yesno. Mind that the 3rd Assault was a _brigade_ that went with over 9,000 troops into this battle....and the 72nd MRB had some 8-9 manoeuvre battalions, too.
So, whatever is who drawing what on maps.... 'all relative'.
Yes-no from my side also. A brigade with over 9000 troops or 8-9 manouvre battalions is an abomination but I don't know how many of those 9000 were capable of ofensive operations or what was the status of those 8-9 battalions. For example, in WW2, there were situation where battalions only had around 40 men and existed only in name. These were "special" situations and I don't think is the case here. From that captured map I can see the dispositions, distances etc are respected, the concentration in depth of the Ukr forces clearly suggests an imminent or ongoing attack and it's main effort coming on a different direction than the Russian main defensive effort. All these things seem standard, at least to myself. And this is only one example, I've seen a couple more, including a battalion level meeting engagement from earlier this year. Anyway, it would be interesting to see who and how does the battle planning for a Brigade with 8-9 manouvre battalions. I would really like to see a Division map level at least and an after battle daily report, then I could get an ideea on what is happening in that sector.
I am not 100% sure, but what you are discribing with the 8-9 manouvre bt. of the 72nd resembles something of a American Brigade Combat Team, which is nothing new. These are not organic formations, more of a temporary nature force, which is not supposed to exist in this format for more than 1-2 weeks (only one, larger logistics bt.). They are usually formed by necesity, to take or hold an important objective. A brigade is given temporary command of extra forces, to be able to achieve an important objective.
As said, the goal now is less territorial. First need to weaken the rusian army, i. e. destroy equipment, VDV brigades etc., territorial gains will arrive in due time. I mean, that Russian counter attacks are a very good way to do this, because they are out of their fortifications then.
I was looking at your last map and it looks like the russians are not really defending there fortifications but more in the fields with counterattacks, is that a correct observation and is the fortifications not as sustainable?
'Kind of yes'. The 'main fortification' is actually that anti-tank ditch. The Russians have constructed hundreds of bunkers, trenches and foxholes for troops - north and south of anti-tank ditches. Essentially, every hedgerow in this area = at least 1, often 2-3 Russian fortification/s.
Thanks for report. Does Russia have other similar reserves like this 4 VDV divisions. In your opinion, did Genstab ZSU expected this reserves to arrive and slow down offensive? And did Ukraine used their reserves(I mean in such amount like Russians used VDV divisions)
They are establishing lots of MRRs, MRBs, and MRDs 'stuffed' with mobiks, though. Also, one or two new VDV divisions, all staffed by '2nd-class' reservists drafted from the Russian League of Parachutists.
Sitting here feeling angry that so many countrys promise weapons and munition to ucraine that is not deliverd. My country sends the stuff first, then tell what they have sendt. Maybe we send more than is known, but we have a border to these assholes so that would be a good way of doing it... slava ucraine.... write this in an old thred so hopefully noone will read, but nice to get it of my chest.
With the Japanese surrender Washington and Moscow agreed to divide Korea at the 38th parallel where the DMZ currently is, in Aug 1945.
A ceasefire here now is not remotely similar in its geographic and geopolitical implication. It means Ukraine loses a huge geography, is strategically and economically hobbled, remains insecure, and loses massive resources also.
While Moscow wins strategic, territorial and resource advantage as reward for aggression.
The combat is not going to end there.
Of course, let stop this war and give Putin more land. Of course, he will stop. We are confident, that in 5-10 years he will not collect new army, whereas Ukraine stay destroyed and without any EU and NATO. And,of course, Ukraine will not try to create massive destruction weapon, which is only real guarant of safety.
Even if such a peace were viable for Ukraine's prosperity (it is not) and acceptable to the general population (not so far I guess), there is the military, many of whom have seen their brothers in arms die to restore Ukraine's sovereign territory. The military will be much more hard line about this, and, I believe will ensure Ukraine keeps fighting to restore its territory.
The question is when the bellingerents both accept that there is no hope of gaining more. None of them are there yet. Both are hoping to win the game of attrition and/or position.
No, that is not what occurred. The fight was vicious and dynamic. A ceasefire was only viable once the pre-war 'borderline' had been reestablished, and a DMZ agreed to. That has not occurred in Ukraine yet.
Who will warrant the peace in 5 or 10 years when the Russians recover from the defeat of the first months of war and build tens of thousands of strike drones and missiles? They will assault Kyiv again, as they did now, notwithstanding their controlling Crimea and Donbas.
Russia's GDP is 15 times higher than Ukrainian.
The support is lagging behind the needs, is not sure in the future, and "the whole of NATO" produces less artillery shells than Russia does.
Putin has a track record of freezing conflicts, and not much of a record of Stalin-style subjugation of hostile populations. I don't think this is a dichotomy between "romp home to Crimea and retake LNR/DNR" on the one hand, and a second Holodomor on the other. And the former certainly would not demilitarize Russia. A 1990s style collapse of an already radicalized state isn't very appealing either. There are no good options.
Read how he subjugated Chechnya. See what he has done in the occupied Ukraine. Read the UN report on the Russian use of torture https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/09/russias-war-ukraine-synonymous-torture-un-expert
Well that's a good point about Chechnya, but Ukraine is a much bigger gazelle for the RF python to swallow.
Stalin managed to cleanse Ukraine. And you saw similar cleanses on the occupied territory last year.
Not sure whether such comments come from a place of naivety or somewhere else. Either way it is nonsense.
Was that a sarcasm?
Negotiation pootin who has no intention or incentive to follow through...
Sorry - not gonna happen.
Slow but steady wins the race!!
I thought the damaged ship was "Sergey Kotov", although some early news did mention it as "Vasiliy Bykov type", which probably meant "project 22160"?
"but the rest scored several hits in the" - in the what? :)
Izmail area. Was searching for details, then found something else, got distracted and forgot to complete.... :P
Thank you for the report. Ukrainian media are very modest about hitting Donetsk or Lugansk. As to the damaged "Vasil Bykov" today a video was published which confirmed the hit. Russian sources denied any damage as usual.
Not all the Russians. Have a contact reporting 6 KIA on one of _three_ vessels of the Russian Black Sea Fleet hit the last 36 hours.
....in addition to 14 KIA in the strike on Sevastopol dockyards.
Is it Vasil Bykov?
Not sure. Still waiting for clarification - because it seems that a total of some 4 Russian vessels was attacked over the last 48 hours.
Ukrainian media reported today that Russian ship Samoom was attacked and seriously damaged near Sevastopol by the Ukrainian experimental drone Sea Baby. Such drones were used for the successful attack on the Kerch bridge.
Looking at that bulge, extending from Kopani-Rivne to Verbove, I find it hard to believe the Russian defending forces are more than 2 brigades worth of units at a time (if regiments, it should be slighty more). 30-35 km deep and 20-25 km wide, suggest the Ukr. managed to defeat 2 Russian Brigades, in their prepared positions, which is not an easy thing to do, especially without support from an Air Force. At what cost, it remains to be seen. Bad thing for them, for more than 10 days already, they have not managed to level the front line or to widen the penetration, left and right. This is what you are supposed to do after the initial penetration, introduce new forces on the flanks and widen the penetration. Good thing for them, the Russians have not managed to reduce the width of the penetration or close it, also.
Standard doctrines are all thrown out of the window in this war. So is also standard organisation of units and the battlefield - and that on both sides.
If I'm to ask, nothing is the way it used to be, and/or was thought would be in future wars.
Correspondingly, 'gauging' developments by 'conventional academic means'.... sorry, that's quite pointless.
That may well be. And that is exactly why I don't pay too much attention on open source maps, they are reliable to only show the "trend". From the few captured maps I saw, I would have to say nothing was out of the ordinary. Yes, there were some odd things, but I don't know the context so can't label them as mistakes or "out of the ordinary". In the Brigade level map (1:25000 is the clue) of the Russian and Ukr. disposition around Novodarivka and Rivnopil, everything is done the right way, sort to say, for both sides. I am sorry I can't post it here, I can't find how to do it, but is atatched in RUSI's latest, let's call it analysis for the lack of a better word, at page 6. Like I said earlier, some strange things, like Russians not marking their artillery and their future intent but everything else is top notch. I've also seen the marching diagram of a Russian Marine Infantry battalion commander, some small mistakes but created from composition, not his fault and a couple more Brigade/Regiment level captured maps from various sectors of the front and from various timelines. Nothing too out of the ordinary.
Yesno. Mind that the 3rd Assault was a _brigade_ that went with over 9,000 troops into this battle....and the 72nd MRB had some 8-9 manoeuvre battalions, too.
So, whatever is who drawing what on maps.... 'all relative'.
Yes-no from my side also. A brigade with over 9000 troops or 8-9 manouvre battalions is an abomination but I don't know how many of those 9000 were capable of ofensive operations or what was the status of those 8-9 battalions. For example, in WW2, there were situation where battalions only had around 40 men and existed only in name. These were "special" situations and I don't think is the case here. From that captured map I can see the dispositions, distances etc are respected, the concentration in depth of the Ukr forces clearly suggests an imminent or ongoing attack and it's main effort coming on a different direction than the Russian main defensive effort. All these things seem standard, at least to myself. And this is only one example, I've seen a couple more, including a battalion level meeting engagement from earlier this year. Anyway, it would be interesting to see who and how does the battle planning for a Brigade with 8-9 manouvre battalions. I would really like to see a Division map level at least and an after battle daily report, then I could get an ideea on what is happening in that sector.
I am not 100% sure, but what you are discribing with the 8-9 manouvre bt. of the 72nd resembles something of a American Brigade Combat Team, which is nothing new. These are not organic formations, more of a temporary nature force, which is not supposed to exist in this format for more than 1-2 weeks (only one, larger logistics bt.). They are usually formed by necesity, to take or hold an important objective. A brigade is given temporary command of extra forces, to be able to achieve an important objective.
As said, the goal now is less territorial. First need to weaken the rusian army, i. e. destroy equipment, VDV brigades etc., territorial gains will arrive in due time. I mean, that Russian counter attacks are a very good way to do this, because they are out of their fortifications then.
I couldn't care less about anyone's declared or supposed goals.
I was looking at your last map and it looks like the russians are not really defending there fortifications but more in the fields with counterattacks, is that a correct observation and is the fortifications not as sustainable?
'Kind of yes'. The 'main fortification' is actually that anti-tank ditch. The Russians have constructed hundreds of bunkers, trenches and foxholes for troops - north and south of anti-tank ditches. Essentially, every hedgerow in this area = at least 1, often 2-3 Russian fortification/s.
Thank you for your reply, that clears it for me and thank you for your very good and straight forward reports. And i love your sarcasm and ironi
My pleasure. Simply glad to be of some help.
Thanks for report. Does Russia have other similar reserves like this 4 VDV divisions. In your opinion, did Genstab ZSU expected this reserves to arrive and slow down offensive? And did Ukraine used their reserves(I mean in such amount like Russians used VDV divisions)
Reserves of similar quality: nope.
They are establishing lots of MRRs, MRBs, and MRDs 'stuffed' with mobiks, though. Also, one or two new VDV divisions, all staffed by '2nd-class' reservists drafted from the Russian League of Parachutists.
Спасибо, Том.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1702557381501026323
, UK Military Intelligence states the Minsk and the submarine are finished, more details here
Sitting here feeling angry that so many countrys promise weapons and munition to ucraine that is not deliverd. My country sends the stuff first, then tell what they have sendt. Maybe we send more than is known, but we have a border to these assholes so that would be a good way of doing it... slava ucraine.... write this in an old thred so hopefully noone will read, but nice to get it of my chest.