Thanks, Tom, your context is really important as it explains the pressure that the Russians are trying to apply constantly. Their willingness to expend capital and people to do this is breathtaking! It’s only to be hoped that the Ukrainians ability to absorb this is supported by their “allies”, without them losing faith.
Would be interested in your take on the AB attack with the destroyed SU-34s. Reads to me like “a step in the right direction” in terms of overcoming air defenses around airbases, terminal guidance, etc.
Any conclusions you would draw at this point in time? Happy weekend!
It's not only Patriot systems, but consumables (for example, with the next German system, 100 missiles are expected to be sent).
In general, depending only on SAM systems to defend an area is quite problematic. And the saga of the F-16s for Ukraine is quite irritating by now. Drip feeding a small amount of 4th generation jets is not the best way to introduce these to the battlefield.
Stoltenberg reminds everyone that the systems need to be in good repair, they need to be sent with spare parts and they need to send plenty of missiles.
Germany will send two, US one, Netherlands one and is trying to find three components to send a second complete system. Four newly built NASAMS will be sent by the end of this year.
I read somewhere that the US will divert new Patriots to Ukraine instead of to the countries that ordered them, I hope this is in addition to the two promised.
"Well, somebody bought the attached satellite photos and these are showing results:
- Hit on a maintenance hangar with two Su-34s inside
- Hit on a Su-34 parked in front of that hangar, too."
None of the aircraft were hit as they all timely left for another airfield. Still, I must admit that the scale and magnitude of UA long-range drones strikes are quite impressive.
I know it's senseless to talk to UA ЦИПСО trolls, but....show me, my dear парубок...what evidence of the hit aircraft you saw on the photo?
Problem is that since 2023 UA combat data as trustworthy as Russian. Both sides are desperately lying. Sad to see that both Tom and Don are citing UA sources without serious investigations and double-checkings.
Is it the same Fighterbomber claiming a good dozen fighterjets lost due to a friendly fire? So, extremely reliable. I don’t beleive any russian source unless its author is not Ru located
The question is why those planes in the hangar are not gone? This is definitely not repair plant or anything, any serious works, even painting, if you know how planes industry works, are not done on airfield? Are you saying that they forgot maybe? Or maybe it was too difficult to remove the rubble from the destroyed hangar?
Let me remind you something -- Novofedorivka Atacams strike August 2022.
The hangar was reported to be a part of TECh (an aviation sub-unit that maintains and repairs the planes between missions). So it is likely that the planes were under regular maintenance.
There are at least four Russian planes visible on the post-strike images, not counting those two in the damaged white hangar. Three in the north-western dispersal area, and another one on a taxiway in eastern portion of the airfield. Since they weren't evacuated before or after the drone strike, they are obviously not in a fly-worthy condition. The only question is if they were in such a condition already before the strike or not.
Це твої кишки, русачок? Чи тваїво таваріща? Дуже хочу щоб кожеш русак закінчив як оцей: в болоті з кишками навиворіт. Це те, на що ви заслуговуєте, мразота
Хуйлан, з кожним своїм коментом ти все більше і більше доводищ, що ти галімий кацапський 15-рубльовий троль, який шифрується під нейтрального.
Крім того, твої коменти ще раз доводять, як ви кацапи ставитесь до «брацкого народа» і яка ваша справжня ціль - це геноцид українців і знищення всього українського
The problem for you is that I know Tom for 20 years. While you are an ordinary ЦИПСО troll that is trying to evade frontline by posting senseless swearings. I am a quarter Ukranian myself and before 2014 visited more Ukranian regions than any average Ukranian. I know more about Ukraine than you do. It's OK by me if you post any military info about UA military actions but you post only BS and swearings. So it's you who should be banned for primitivism and uselessness. Bye, рагуль, I will not respond you anymore
Thank you for the update. Your descrption of what happens at infantery level is interesting and seems very plausibel. Some nice refelctions on the time not videoed. Yes, se need to think about that.
Yes, exactly. Just the price tag varies. Bahmut between 70k and 100k total losses. Avdiivka between 40k and 50k. The latter is by the way two times smaller then Bahmut. But to the frontier of Donetsk region there is quite a few of those to go. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk together are like 4 Bahmut, and many before that.
May be. Russians indeed don't care about losses; during the II WW they lost about 10 000 000 soldiers, German only 5 000 000, yet it was the Russians wh won. But as regards Ukraine - it is possible that your estimates of Russian losses are ridiculously overestimated due to main stream propaganda. In the contrary to Ukraininan losses.
It's interesting Oryx announced the cessation of its activities when western tanks appeared on the war scene (finally it's probably still active, I don't know). Some said that it was because one could no longer present pics of Ukrainian destroyed tanks as Russian ones. Yes, I don't believe any estimates of anything, provided by Russians, AND/OR by UKR fans. I can only laugh when one firmly believes information provided by one side of the conflict.
There are two Bilohorivkas in that region: the one in Luhansk oblast at Lysychansk is firmly in ZSU hands, the other one - at Soledar in Donetsk oblast was lost back in 2023 if i am not mistaken
First of all regarding WW2, those were not the only two nations participating in that war, LOL! Red army was 20+% Ukrainian, and the rest were of various nations as well. This not to mention the whole rest of the world.
For losses, those are provided by ru sources. Maybe propaganda, but why would they lie about own lossess to a higher number? Prigoshin mentioned 20+ KIA of his units in a battle of Bahmut, there were also army units. The statistical ratio of losses on ru side this war goes around 1 to 2.2 KIA to WIA. So 20+44=64 plus army units at least 20% to add there. Would be 64*1.2=76.8 Various intelligence sources around the world mentioned from 60K to 100+K. The ru source blogger and combatant reported 16K KIA in Avdiivka. Use same maths.
So to reach the frontier of Donetsk region would require to spend all currently existing 700K army, and around 18 months, since one needs to find replacements for them. And this provided all other directions will just do nothing, stay in one place.
"First of all regarding WW2, those were not the only two nations participating in that war, LOL! Red army was 20+% Ukrainian, and the rest were of various nations as well. This not to mention the whole rest of the world." - I don't understand your point. I did not say that there only two nations at war. I said Russia can lose a lot of people and still win, sooner or later.
"For losses, those are provided by ru sources. " - no they are not. In some battles, yes. But the overall number of half a milion of lost plp is simply made up by maths.
"So to reach the frontier of Donetsk region would require to spend all currently existing 700K army, and around 18 months," - perhaps but provided that UKR does not collapse entirely much earlier. We'll see.
Hmm... I have not mentioned a word about 500K, just mentioned two specific most recent battles, after a frontline settled. And specific losses confirmed by specific very substantial ru sources. And those amounting to 150K in total. But if you are for claiming anything about 500K, any source or effort to substantiate your claims? That this is a bogus number or anything?
BTW, So why do you compare losses of two nations in WW2, whats the reason for that? Or what is the logic, I am missing that? Even though comparison is wrong in itself in terms of numbers, as I shown above. Red army was not of one nation, and sparing other nations lives for ru was never a problem. Have you read materials of current unproportional mobilization from the regions that mostly consists of other different nations? Like yakuts, buryats, tuvans, bashkirs, tatars, dagestani, chechens?
Great points about converting what is seen in a video to a sense of what's actually going on. So much back and forth on the front lines that maps are mainly a kind of rolling average. Meaningful only over a relatively long timeframe.
Though it is kinda crazy to be able to get into the head of orc commanders just by looking at the patterns of where and how intensively they push. It's like seeing a campaign history from WW2 playing out in real time. And the orcs just keep on fighting like a bad AI!
Their officers literally do the thing that smart Command & Conquer NOD players did to draw the inevitable A-10 strike away from their main base: send one lone dude (private Bob, I called them all) to the upper left corner of the map. AI always prioritized whatever was in that direction. Bob's noble sacrifice was never in vain... the same cannot be said of Putin's orcs. All 500,000 and counting.
What's sad is that American Army officers, if they ever have to fight Moscow or China, are going to act the same. Definitely making "officer" an occupational specialty in the future West Coast Defense Forces.
Good write up of what's happening. Putin seems to be in his final stages of ways to scare off "the West" and proven himself exclusively as threat. What does he have left but actually attacking Europe and North America and getting demolished? He thinks intimidation is enough to win. Summoning North Korea and the Island of Cuba to his cause shows only pathetic hubris. And forget about Trump, who doesn't have two pots to stand in. A gadfly criminal insurectionist and trash talker. A man who when sober behaves like an angry drunk. As we speak he is in his sweatbox weeping about how ugly he is. While his supporters waketoall the bs, ds and hs that flies from his rotting head. (bull, dog, horse) They have no answer for his crimes. He will stir in prison. His fans will get tired.
I draw some comfort from this report of how these horrible events are currently going. Thanks
Thanks, Tom, your context is really important as it explains the pressure that the Russians are trying to apply constantly. Their willingness to expend capital and people to do this is breathtaking! It’s only to be hoped that the Ukrainians ability to absorb this is supported by their “allies”, without them losing faith.
Good morning Tim,
many thanks for the update.
Would be interested in your take on the AB attack with the destroyed SU-34s. Reads to me like “a step in the right direction” in terms of overcoming air defenses around airbases, terminal guidance, etc.
Any conclusions you would draw at this point in time? Happy weekend!
Thank you for your valuable comments.
There are reports of Ukraine getting more Patriot systems with numbers varying from 2 to 5, do you have an update on this?
Of course, Ukraine needs dozens more but every little helps especially if they can find a safe way to use them against the glide bombers.
It's not only Patriot systems, but consumables (for example, with the next German system, 100 missiles are expected to be sent).
In general, depending only on SAM systems to defend an area is quite problematic. And the saga of the F-16s for Ukraine is quite irritating by now. Drip feeding a small amount of 4th generation jets is not the best way to introduce these to the battlefield.
Stoltenberg reminds everyone that the systems need to be in good repair, they need to be sent with spare parts and they need to send plenty of missiles.
Germany will send two, US one, Netherlands one and is trying to find three components to send a second complete system. Four newly built NASAMS will be sent by the end of this year.
Thanks, very good news.
I read somewhere that the US will divert new Patriots to Ukraine instead of to the countries that ordered them, I hope this is in addition to the two promised.
Biden said that about Patriots but he was most likely meaning the four NASAMS that are being built by the end of this year.
Thank you, Tom.
Thanks Tom . Artillery queen of the battlefield!
Well, kings, actually. https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-tactical/why-artillery-is-king-of-the-battlefield/
The infantry are queens since 1892. https://www.moore.army.mil/infantry/magazine/FAQs.html
"Well, somebody bought the attached satellite photos and these are showing results:
- Hit on a maintenance hangar with two Su-34s inside
- Hit on a Su-34 parked in front of that hangar, too."
None of the aircraft were hit as they all timely left for another airfield. Still, I must admit that the scale and magnitude of UA long-range drones strikes are quite impressive.
LOL! Are you a pilot or do you own a crystal ball?
Just a simple Pu fan. Do not pay much attention. #allmissed, #itisfake, #youareliar etc. whatever evidence you present: always the same comment
I know it's senseless to talk to UA ЦИПСО trolls, but....show me, my dear парубок...what evidence of the hit aircraft you saw on the photo?
Problem is that since 2023 UA combat data as trustworthy as Russian. Both sides are desperately lying. Sad to see that both Tom and Don are citing UA sources without serious investigations and double-checkings.
I believe you are sad but not for the reason you're quoting
Several sources. Take a look at FighterBomber TG. He ALWAYS confirms RU losses if they take place.
Is it the same Fighterbomber claiming a good dozen fighterjets lost due to a friendly fire? So, extremely reliable. I don’t beleive any russian source unless its author is not Ru located
Ану хуйлан козломордий, це часом не калобомбер пиздів про русопевео, яке збило А-50 над таганрогом? Ой, щось неувязочка виходить))
https://t.me/sledcom_press/13945
Including those two visible through the damaged roof of hangar?
I checked Brady Africk post about damage.
https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1801629416545521924
In the bigger circle it looks like indeed two planes inside. However, in the second smaller circle (dotted) see no signs of aircraft inside.
What this means? They seem to be absolutely identical?
And second question, if there is 2 aircrafts inside hangar, why they are there? Your opinion? What two aircrafts doing in hangar?
Photos are identical but for the lack of planes in hangar on the small one.
If two planes were indeed in hangar the reasons could be any, most likely maintanence.
Anyway, all the rest gone to other airfields in anticipstion of UA strike.
The question is why those planes in the hangar are not gone? This is definitely not repair plant or anything, any serious works, even painting, if you know how planes industry works, are not done on airfield? Are you saying that they forgot maybe? Or maybe it was too difficult to remove the rubble from the destroyed hangar?
Let me remind you something -- Novofedorivka Atacams strike August 2022.
You see, on this video a plane that is leftmost of the front row, it was identified: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQyWLMCkksE
And here is it gone, see left bottom corner with big dark spot but no plane: https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FKXATXXRTRZMQNKN3CZ4CECHDGI.jpg?auth=a8291d35c6f662f0ea97a068bd8c39b43ef6b8b9c4fdbc76f962669da67966f9&width=1080&quality=80
So we all know well how it was done in the past. You see, first priority is to remove any rubble.
Following you logic it was necessary to remove planes from the hangar (on condition that there were any inside) as well to hide the hits.
Just to contradict your theory: recent UAV hit that reportedly damaged SU-57 should have been hidden at once. The reality was opposite.
The hangar was reported to be a part of TECh (an aviation sub-unit that maintains and repairs the planes between missions). So it is likely that the planes were under regular maintenance.
There are at least four Russian planes visible on the post-strike images, not counting those two in the damaged white hangar. Three in the north-western dispersal area, and another one on a taxiway in eastern portion of the airfield. Since they weren't evacuated before or after the drone strike, they are obviously not in a fly-worthy condition. The only question is if they were in such a condition already before the strike or not.
Ти знову вилізло хуйло 15-рубльове
My dear ципсо рагуль! Show you bravery at frontline, not in Internet!)
If ТЦК bastartds will indeed force you to the trenches in this classical manner:
https://t.me/ASupersharij/29816
then feel free to call Волга or Tupolev16 and you will be ok like these smart lads:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/127071
Ахаха, свинособака трігернулась)) ти спалився кацапчик козломордий. І твоя поганенька англійська тебе не врятувала
Це твої кишки, русачок? Чи тваїво таваріща? Дуже хочу щоб кожеш русак закінчив як оцей: в болоті з кишками навиворіт. Це те, на що ви заслуговуєте, мразота
https://t.me/ssternenko/29888
Before going to your steady job of washing toilets in Krakow, my dear ЦИПСО рaгуль, read this:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/romania-vladimir-putin-chants-ukraine-33050850
Хуйлан, з кожним своїм коментом ти все більше і більше доводищ, що ти галімий кацапський 15-рубльовий троль, який шифрується під нейтрального.
Крім того, твої коменти ще раз доводять, як ви кацапи ставитесь до «брацкого народа» і яка ваша справжня ціль - це геноцид українців і знищення всього українського
А тепер шах і мат підріла кацапська:
https://www.gsp.ro/stire/stire-746215.html
Відео з «путін, путін» - це фейк, а румунські фани насправді підтримували Україну.
Яке ж ти нікчемне чмо, як і вся твоя країна.
І ще отак
https://www.gsp.ro/international/euro-2024/romania-ucraina-suporteri-presa-746194.html
I hope Tom will ban this ruzzian propagandist for deliberately spreading fake information
The problem for you is that I know Tom for 20 years. While you are an ordinary ЦИПСО troll that is trying to evade frontline by posting senseless swearings. I am a quarter Ukranian myself and before 2014 visited more Ukranian regions than any average Ukranian. I know more about Ukraine than you do. It's OK by me if you post any military info about UA military actions but you post only BS and swearings. So it's you who should be banned for primitivism and uselessness. Bye, рагуль, I will not respond you anymore
На, жери свинопес)))
https://champion.com.ua/ukr/football/evro-2024/gruzinski-fanati-skanduvali-putin-h-lo-pid-chas-matchu-yevro-2024-proti-turechchini-1003082/
Thank you for the update. Your descrption of what happens at infantery level is interesting and seems very plausibel. Some nice refelctions on the time not videoed. Yes, se need to think about that.
Not every footage can be sent and shown. I would estimate ratio public vs unpublic by 30/70… it is war, not Circus
And this is how they took Bakhmut, Avdijivka, Ocheretyne, Netailove, Belhorovka, Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, Ivanivka, Robotyne?... Interesting...
Yes, exactly. Just the price tag varies. Bahmut between 70k and 100k total losses. Avdiivka between 40k and 50k. The latter is by the way two times smaller then Bahmut. But to the frontier of Donetsk region there is quite a few of those to go. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk together are like 4 Bahmut, and many before that.
May be. Russians indeed don't care about losses; during the II WW they lost about 10 000 000 soldiers, German only 5 000 000, yet it was the Russians wh won. But as regards Ukraine - it is possible that your estimates of Russian losses are ridiculously overestimated due to main stream propaganda. In the contrary to Ukraininan losses.
I suppose you'll deny visually confirmed vehicular losses, as well.
It's interesting Oryx announced the cessation of its activities when western tanks appeared on the war scene (finally it's probably still active, I don't know). Some said that it was because one could no longer present pics of Ukrainian destroyed tanks as Russian ones. Yes, I don't believe any estimates of anything, provided by Russians, AND/OR by UKR fans. I can only laugh when one firmly believes information provided by one side of the conflict.
You're right: You don't know.
To those that deny UA losses, I always recommend lostarmour.info
especially Lancets' strikes link.
After watching it one will never buy stories about prevailing Russian losses in 2024
was bilohorivka actually taken? i havent seen any confirmation of this besides the russians claiming it
There are two Bilohorivkas in that region: the one in Luhansk oblast at Lysychansk is firmly in ZSU hands, the other one - at Soledar in Donetsk oblast was lost back in 2023 if i am not mistaken
Not yet taken. Indeed UA forces hold on there well.
The place is well fortified in Avdeevka style
First of all regarding WW2, those were not the only two nations participating in that war, LOL! Red army was 20+% Ukrainian, and the rest were of various nations as well. This not to mention the whole rest of the world.
For losses, those are provided by ru sources. Maybe propaganda, but why would they lie about own lossess to a higher number? Prigoshin mentioned 20+ KIA of his units in a battle of Bahmut, there were also army units. The statistical ratio of losses on ru side this war goes around 1 to 2.2 KIA to WIA. So 20+44=64 plus army units at least 20% to add there. Would be 64*1.2=76.8 Various intelligence sources around the world mentioned from 60K to 100+K. The ru source blogger and combatant reported 16K KIA in Avdiivka. Use same maths.
So to reach the frontier of Donetsk region would require to spend all currently existing 700K army, and around 18 months, since one needs to find replacements for them. And this provided all other directions will just do nothing, stay in one place.
"First of all regarding WW2, those were not the only two nations participating in that war, LOL! Red army was 20+% Ukrainian, and the rest were of various nations as well. This not to mention the whole rest of the world." - I don't understand your point. I did not say that there only two nations at war. I said Russia can lose a lot of people and still win, sooner or later.
"For losses, those are provided by ru sources. " - no they are not. In some battles, yes. But the overall number of half a milion of lost plp is simply made up by maths.
"So to reach the frontier of Donetsk region would require to spend all currently existing 700K army, and around 18 months," - perhaps but provided that UKR does not collapse entirely much earlier. We'll see.
Hmm... I have not mentioned a word about 500K, just mentioned two specific most recent battles, after a frontline settled. And specific losses confirmed by specific very substantial ru sources. And those amounting to 150K in total. But if you are for claiming anything about 500K, any source or effort to substantiate your claims? That this is a bogus number or anything?
BTW, So why do you compare losses of two nations in WW2, whats the reason for that? Or what is the logic, I am missing that? Even though comparison is wrong in itself in terms of numbers, as I shown above. Red army was not of one nation, and sparing other nations lives for ru was never a problem. Have you read materials of current unproportional mobilization from the regions that mostly consists of other different nations? Like yakuts, buryats, tuvans, bashkirs, tatars, dagestani, chechens?
This was an interesting informative report thanks much Tom
Ty for the info Tom. Appreciate the work.
Great points about converting what is seen in a video to a sense of what's actually going on. So much back and forth on the front lines that maps are mainly a kind of rolling average. Meaningful only over a relatively long timeframe.
Though it is kinda crazy to be able to get into the head of orc commanders just by looking at the patterns of where and how intensively they push. It's like seeing a campaign history from WW2 playing out in real time. And the orcs just keep on fighting like a bad AI!
Their officers literally do the thing that smart Command & Conquer NOD players did to draw the inevitable A-10 strike away from their main base: send one lone dude (private Bob, I called them all) to the upper left corner of the map. AI always prioritized whatever was in that direction. Bob's noble sacrifice was never in vain... the same cannot be said of Putin's orcs. All 500,000 and counting.
What's sad is that American Army officers, if they ever have to fight Moscow or China, are going to act the same. Definitely making "officer" an occupational specialty in the future West Coast Defense Forces.
Good write up of what's happening. Putin seems to be in his final stages of ways to scare off "the West" and proven himself exclusively as threat. What does he have left but actually attacking Europe and North America and getting demolished? He thinks intimidation is enough to win. Summoning North Korea and the Island of Cuba to his cause shows only pathetic hubris. And forget about Trump, who doesn't have two pots to stand in. A gadfly criminal insurectionist and trash talker. A man who when sober behaves like an angry drunk. As we speak he is in his sweatbox weeping about how ugly he is. While his supporters waketoall the bs, ds and hs that flies from his rotting head. (bull, dog, horse) They have no answer for his crimes. He will stir in prison. His fans will get tired.