Ukraine War, 15 February 2024: (Still) Avidiivka

Hello everybody!
Another ‘quick and dirty’ focusing on Avidiivka, where the situation remains critical.

(Mind: this feature has been updated with ‘few bits and pieces’ of information that became available through the morning.)

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Through the last two days, the VKS continued heavily bombing the Avidiivka area. Over 60 air strikes were recorded.

As can be seen from the attached map, primary targets are meanwhile ZSU positions along the southern side of the Russian penetration that has blocked the Road O0542/Industrialny Prospect. Indeed, Ukrainian reports are indicating that the Russians are trying to widen their blockade through assaulting across this road in the western direction. Currently, this is leaving the ZSU only the field-path from Lastochkyne for movement of reinforcements and supplies into the town. With the early onset of the muddy-season, that’s a very poor option.

Moreover, the deployment of MPK/UMPK glide bombs along the frontline means that these have been refined enough for the VKS to use them for providing direct support for VSRF’s ground troops, not only for random interdiction strikes of ‘probable/suspected’ communication links behind Ukrainian frontlines.

On the ground, the 3rd Assault Brigade (probably the ZSU-unit with best ‘PR-service’) is reporting ‘extremely critical situation’ and several ‘raids into enemy-held areas’. They’re estimating that the VSRF has deployed no less than seven (7) brigades for its onslaught.

This map is showing the situation at the time the brigade arrived in the Avidiivka area, and up to 13 February:

Another major crisis point is south of Avidiivka: that’s the ‘Zenit’ position, the ZSU’s fortification north of the Spartak area (see the ‘blue semi-cricle at the bottom of the map’ I’ve drawn) - which is short of getting encircled by the Russian assaults north-west and north-east of it.

Combined, the Russian blockade of the O0542 road and the threat of encircling the Zenit position are the primary reason why the last two days the ZSU did not limit itself to defence of own positions, but also run a number of local counterattacks. For example on Krasnohorivka in the north, from Lastochkyne towards east (into northern Avidiivka), and on Opytne in the south. As far as can be assessed by now, these did not bring any significant change, though - which is why I expect the ZSU to eventually evacuate the Zenit.

‘BTW’,

• since two days, the Russians are heavily targeting the town of Selidove, about 43km west of Avidiivka. Sounds logical, because, AFAIK, Selydove is one of major hubs for ZSU’s operations in the Avidiivka area: the mass of supplies and reinforcements for the garrison is passing the place. ‘Problem’: the Russians are claiming to have ‘killed 1,500 Ukrainian troops’ (quote from Margarita Simonyan, chief of the RT) in one strike there (this was run from 11.30 until 12.40 of 13 February), and then additional ‘hundreds’ in another (yesterday, on 14 February) - first by at least one Iskander missile, then by BM-30s (using cluster ammunition), and then by ‘Gerants’ (which is the Russian designation for the Iranian-made Shahed attack-UAVs). The only thing certain by now is that they have heavily targeted the local hospital (a photo released by the Ukrainian police is attached below).

• RUMINT has it that the VSRF is - apparently in reaction to the appearance of the 3rd Assault - re-deploying elements of the 90th Tank Division from the Svatove area in direction of Avidiivka. While this is ‘bad news’ for ZSU units fighting in that area, I think it’s clear this is ‘good news’ for all those in near-panic over a possible Russian onslaught on Kupyansk.

Hospital in Selydove, demolished by several precise hits by different Russian weapons.

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If there’s a positive development, then the first combat deployment of GLSDBs by the ZSU. This is the ground-launched version of the small diameter bomb (SDB): usually an air-released weapon, now fired from M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS launchers. One has to hope they’re promptly available in big numbers. Their importance lies in the fact that they can hit the Russians where these are expecting them the least: dozens of kilometres behind the frontline, thus disturbing their offensive operations through blowing up ammunition depots, troop concentrations, headquarters and similar targets.