Hello everybody! Let me start this one with trying to make sense out of diverse reports about missile strikes of the last few days. On 9 August, Ukrainians reported three ‘Kinzhal alerts’: that is, three air raid alerts caused by MiG-31Ks of the VKS taking-off from Machulishchy AB. Gauging by available reports, the first of these three included an attempted launch, but no missile was released. Reason is unclear (and I doubt we’re going to know any time soon), but it seems either the missile malfunctioned, or the jet suffered another case of trouble with its D-30F6 engines (the VKS lost at least four MiG-31s the last year, most of these to engine-related problems).
"The other is on the eastern side of the Serebranysk Forest, and under the Russian control."
Could you please double check this statement. If I am not mistaken this Belohorivka (close to Shypylivka, Lysychansk) is under UA control.
Thank you for your work 🤝
It's the Bilohorivka south of Kreminna
The soft ground near Zavitne Bazhannya may dry out soon - the weather shows +33C and no rain for the next 10 days, with August and first half of September being among the driest months in Ukraine.
Thank you for you update Tom. One question: How many Ka-52 are actually remaining, if there are any guesses available?
In general, relatively "many" Russian jets have fallen out of the sky in recent months due to malfunctions.
I would say at least a dozen since February 2022.
Is that really above average for the VKS or does it just seem more common because the public is paying more attention to it?
Is that (also) due to western sanctions or to typically poor maintenance at the VKS?
Tom, you really can inspire with your optimism! But I wonder why Russian soldiers commit suicide if they can be safe in Ukrainian prison. Maybe they are brainwashed to such extent as to be sure - "the awful banderovites" will torture them to death.
I suggest to rename every bilohorivka by numbering it, starting with "bilohorivka 1" to "bilohorivka 64337". Same with per(v/w)omajsk(kyi/e)
Thank you Tom.
Has Ukraine activated its operational reserves or are they still waiting?
Thanks Tom another good report, looks like the UAF's interdiction on the Russian supply lines is paying off, and its interesting with the bridge on the left bank
I have not seen videos or reports of the use of western battle tanks since the losses in the initial stages of the counter offensive. Bradleys, CV90s and other western armor seem to be in use, and also russian tanks are regularly seen active by the ukrainians. Have the Leopards and Challengers been concluded as unfit for the conditions on the front, or is their use just covered by OPSEC?
Yesterday there was a video about the destruction of two UAF S-300 launchers plus their radar. It was claimed to be a new one and up till this moment Geoconfirmed didn't find an older post about it. The nasty surprise to me is that it happened near Zelenyi Hai, which is more than 55 km from the nearest frontline (Oleshky). To me it's highly unlikely that the Russians place long range arty right into a contested sector, so the real distance is more likely some 65km+. AFAIK up till now they had neither this long range precision strike capabilities, nor long rage surveillance to cover the strike.
Did I miss something?
Hi Tom, some recent news namely the situation about Robotine an Uzhoradne seems to me a bit similar to 1944. When certain places are defended well beyond what its advantagous for the defender. In both case it seems like the primary goal of this tactics is to make the dictator happy. Do you think there is indeed such similarity or the current situation is completely different?
Thanks for The update, interesting as always and with a pinch of hope of near future good news.
I am a bit surprised by the numbers mentioned - 200+ battle tanks and artillery and no movement by the Russians? This would be a quite powerful spearhead (if there aren't too many mines ahead).