Well, that's quite obvious: slow-down in Western deliveries in heavy artillery, combined with the wear and combat attrition of what was already delivered.
The soft ground near Zavitne Bazhannya may dry out soon - the weather shows +33C and no rain for the next 10 days, with August and first half of September being among the driest months in Ukraine.
Even if it dries, there're still mines.... Lets hope the 'brains' of the ZSU are going to find a way. They did so, already 3 times, just in this sector, over the last two months.
- another 30-40 were damaged or suffered different types of malfunctions and need repairs (there are lots of Ka-52s airframes to be seen on sat photos of different of forward operating bases of the Russians in southern Zaporizhzhya and south-western Donetsk, for example)
But, and as reported, they've already run out of LMUR guided missiles, and have to use older AT-14s, which is bringing them within the range of Ukrainian air defences.... at least these new Supacats with ASRAAMs.
Tom, you really can inspire with your optimism! But I wonder why Russian soldiers commit suicide if they can be safe in Ukrainian prison. Maybe they are brainwashed to such extent as to be sure - "the awful banderovites" will torture them to death.
In August 1945 all the prisoners who survived in Hitler's camps were sent to Gulag and were held there until Stalin's death in 1953. But after that they were not allowed to return to their families until 1956. Such is the tradition in Russia.
If I recall this is why Solzhenitsyn was in the Gulag. He was sent into battle with just a holster. This never made sense to me until recently when I learned about Russian "meat" attacks. A weapon or training isn't necessary to be "meat", you just need to give enough equipment and training to psychologically confuse the person. Anyway, Solzhenitsyn was captured by the Germans and released after the war. All released prisoners were assumed to be German spies and sent to the Gulag. Maybe this was a lie and really they were punished for not succesfully accomplishing their mission to catch a bullet.
Wagner gave orders to its soldiers to commit suicide rather than be captured. Seems this has spread to the whole military.
No offence meant, a civilian is not to comprehend what it’s like: fighting at close quarters for months. It completely changes human’s mentality. For that precise reason any combatant need a rest to relax in a safe environment. If he doesn’t get one he burns out and is pushed on the verge of collapse, posing a threat to himself and his fellow soldiers.
I think this is an excellent explanation. Most things consumed in excess (e.g. social media, TV, etc.) affects your brain in an unhealthy fashion and makes it difficult for others to comprehend the individual behavior. Same obviously here…
Because ruzzian soldiers "know" they will be tortured in Ukrainian's hands. Their officers prepare them with needed info like videos of castrations and other unimagined violence which is present in every war from both sides. But even that's not a norm it's enough to scare any usual soldier to death. Mind also that soldiers are very limited on info from "normal world", they mostly consume what are they proposed by their current environment, like rumors, scare stories and states propaganda.
Might be quite a few reasons. Desperation certainly part of it. But surrendering can be quite difficult practically. You need someone to accept your surrender and bring you out of the combat situation. It can take time and you might want to end this now. And you might of course fear your captors for a variety of good and not so good reasons. And maybe you are too proud to surrender in some way. Difficult to know of course, could be a host of different reasons.
It is really awful if the soldiers are so desperate as to commit suicide. But anyway I do not believe that Russian soldiers "are too proud to surrender". Even officers in the Russian army have no idea about honor andd pride. They are simply a mob of sadistic thieves and rapists.
I am very sure it is quite awfull. Reading Toms description of the figthing is enough, and there are countless of sources for its awfullness. So yes, I believe it can be awfull enough that death by suicide seems the best way out. Regarding being too proud to surrender, well maybe pride isnt the right term. I meant it more as a descrption of a stubborn conviction that there is something the person isnt willing to do. I am not denying that they are sadistic thieves an rapists, but in their own Minds (and they take the decision) they dont do something like surrender. But this is very much speculation, after all I have Neither data nor expertiencd to back my musings. So I might be totally wrong.
Because of indoctrination. Putin's PRBS-machinery and their superiors are teaching them they're fighting 'Nazzo' (combination of NATO + Nazis) and are going to be tortured etc. if caught alive.
It's 'months' ago since I've issued an official demand for re-naming of all the 100+ Bilohorivkas in Ukraine. No matter in what way. Just rename them. Thanks a lot... :P
Nope. The ZSU has about 35 brigades 'in strategic reserve'.
Sure, about a dozen of these are 'newly-established' and still undergoing training. Others are 'ready', but kept back. No matter what are Russians doing, nor where, the GenStab-U hasn't found it necessary to deploy them, yet. So, they're waiting for their turn.
Atop of that, every of 'Theatres of Operations' has 1, some even 2 brigades in operational reserve. These are regularly rotated with those in the line. For example, the 3rd Assault and 28th Mech are, presently, enjoying something like 'vacation'.
Thanks Tom another good report, looks like the UAF's interdiction on the Russian supply lines is paying off, and its interesting with the bridge on the left bank
I have not seen videos or reports of the use of western battle tanks since the losses in the initial stages of the counter offensive. Bradleys, CV90s and other western armor seem to be in use, and also russian tanks are regularly seen active by the ukrainians. Have the Leopards and Challengers been concluded as unfit for the conditions on the front, or is their use just covered by OPSEC?
1) A mobile attack in the rear of the mine field. However, first the southern mine fields (+ anti-tank fortifications) should be penetrated.
2) A counterattack against the Russian tanks in the northeast (the Kupiansk direction). However, the Russian were unable to break through the Ukrainian fortifications (yet), thus no need for tanks.
The basic issue is that the tanks are vulnerable to mines, infantry (ATGM), helicopters and drones, thus every operation with them is likely to result in losses which are difficult to compensate. Thus they are kept for the targets they are good against, namely Soviet tanks and (probably) concrete fortifications.
Saw fresh videos of 2 Leopard 2s with tracks blown off in Zaporizhzhia around the Robotyne area. So they are still being used and seems they've done a great job. Unfortunate Ukraine doesn't have air cover to take out Russian GBAD and ground artillery systems.
Yesterday there was a video about the destruction of two UAF S-300 launchers plus their radar. It was claimed to be a new one and up till this moment Geoconfirmed didn't find an older post about it. The nasty surprise to me is that it happened near Zelenyi Hai, which is more than 55 km from the nearest frontline (Oleshky). To me it's highly unlikely that the Russians place long range arty right into a contested sector, so the real distance is more likely some 65km+. AFAIK up till now they had neither this long range precision strike capabilities, nor long rage surveillance to cover the strike.
Surveillance drones are often being reported as hit over Kyiv amongst Shaheds.
And once a target is found, it can be hit even with Shaheds. Smerch and Tornado are advertised as 90+ km MLRS that could likely have been modified with a GPS targeting. Even the old Tochka-U is 120 km and has anti-radar missiles.
Hi Tom, some recent news namely the situation about Robotine an Uzhoradne seems to me a bit similar to 1944. When certain places are defended well beyond what its advantagous for the defender. In both case it seems like the primary goal of this tactics is to make the dictator happy. Do you think there is indeed such similarity or the current situation is completely different?
Actually, warm (above 0C) winters are quite dry here. The worst mud comes when the temperature stays about 0C for a while, with a layer of wet snow accumulating and then slowly melting.
If the next months are warm and dry, the mud season will be limited to February. In the worst case it may start in October and end in April.
However, the fields around the front line were not cultivated for more than a year and are said to be covered in undergrowth, meaning the mud will not be as deep as with a cultivated land.
If you want to share their experience, check the forest northwest of Sobra. It's a dense little oak bush interwoven with some vines that bear very sharp slicing thorns. I was stuck in it for a while, finally found out that the vines can be torn with a club, and thus I was able to get through 100 or 200 meters of it.
And at Babyno Polie the host told me that they had a tourist lost in the forest for 3 days, after which a helicopter found him barely alive.
Now there goes a main asphalt road through the entire island at its southern side, around it are villages and desolated olive gardens. North of the road is the mountain ridge, and there is a good hiking route north of the mountains. And the northernmost part along the seashore - I don't know. Probably those forests with thorns and goats.
I still want to return there, walk around Babyno Polie for several days, and also get to the eastern part of the island I missed on my previous trip. The westernmost part got too many tourists, while I dislike crowds.
I wonder how the difficult supply situation for the Russians will impact their motivation as the weather turns cold. I know they are well adapted to living in frigid conditions, will they be able to cope with nasty weather, scarce supplies, and war?
I'm trying to avoid 'drawing parallels' to earlier conflicts, because - actually - no two wars are the same. If I'm using them then in attempt to make things easier to understand.
That said, yes, there's plenty of 'not an inch back' and 'to the last bullet' in this war, like in certain of earlier conflicts.
I am a bit surprised by the numbers mentioned - 200+ battle tanks and artillery and no movement by the Russians? This would be a quite powerful spearhead (if there aren't too many mines ahead).
Yes, 'that' Bilohorivka.
Hi Tom,
"The other is on the eastern side of the Serebranysk Forest, and under the Russian control."
Could you please double check this statement. If I am not mistaken this Belohorivka (close to Shypylivka, Lysychansk) is under UA control.
Thank you for your work 🤝
Yup, 'the one on the Siverski Donets', 10km west of Lysychansk - and yes, still under ZSU-control, but the situation seems to be 'critical'.
Well, that's quite obvious: slow-down in Western deliveries in heavy artillery, combined with the wear and combat attrition of what was already delivered.
....and a chronic shortage of ammunition....
It's the Bilohorivka south of Kreminna
Yup, 'the one on the Siverski Donets', 10km west of Lysychansk.
The soft ground near Zavitne Bazhannya may dry out soon - the weather shows +33C and no rain for the next 10 days, with August and first half of September being among the driest months in Ukraine.
Even if it dries, there're still mines.... Lets hope the 'brains' of the ZSU are going to find a way. They did so, already 3 times, just in this sector, over the last two months.
Thank you for you update Tom. One question: How many Ka-52 are actually remaining, if there are any guesses available?
- about 140 were acquired;
- some 40 were confirmed as shot down,
- another 30-40 were damaged or suffered different types of malfunctions and need repairs (there are lots of Ka-52s airframes to be seen on sat photos of different of forward operating bases of the Russians in southern Zaporizhzhya and south-western Donetsk, for example)
= would mean around 60 are still around.
Thank you. So no hope of those disappearing from the battlefield soon.
Ka-52s - nope.
But, and as reported, they've already run out of LMUR guided missiles, and have to use older AT-14s, which is bringing them within the range of Ukrainian air defences.... at least these new Supacats with ASRAAMs.
"which is bringing them within the range of Ukrainian air defences"
immediate effect is that today two more were shot down.
In general, relatively "many" Russian jets have fallen out of the sky in recent months due to malfunctions.
I would say at least a dozen since February 2022.
Is that really above average for the VKS or does it just seem more common because the public is paying more attention to it?
Is that (also) due to western sanctions or to typically poor maintenance at the VKS?
It is well above the average reports. And we cannot exclude sabotage.
Well above average - and very much related to heavy deployment in Ukraine, and resulting problems with maintenance.
Tom, you really can inspire with your optimism! But I wonder why Russian soldiers commit suicide if they can be safe in Ukrainian prison. Maybe they are brainwashed to such extent as to be sure - "the awful banderovites" will torture them to death.
They might know what Russia is doing to UA POVs and they expect the same behavior from the other side.
They think Ukrainian people are like them. Or they know very well what they have done to Ukraine and are afraid of the revenge.
Is it that their command have threatened them with punishment in the case that they surrender and are then handed back to Russia?
In August 1945 all the prisoners who survived in Hitler's camps were sent to Gulag and were held there until Stalin's death in 1953. But after that they were not allowed to return to their families until 1956. Such is the tradition in Russia.
If I recall this is why Solzhenitsyn was in the Gulag. He was sent into battle with just a holster. This never made sense to me until recently when I learned about Russian "meat" attacks. A weapon or training isn't necessary to be "meat", you just need to give enough equipment and training to psychologically confuse the person. Anyway, Solzhenitsyn was captured by the Germans and released after the war. All released prisoners were assumed to be German spies and sent to the Gulag. Maybe this was a lie and really they were punished for not succesfully accomplishing their mission to catch a bullet.
Wagner gave orders to its soldiers to commit suicide rather than be captured. Seems this has spread to the whole military.
The existence of Gulag had many reasons and one of them was to get abundant workers in Siberia and in the Far East.
No offence meant, a civilian is not to comprehend what it’s like: fighting at close quarters for months. It completely changes human’s mentality. For that precise reason any combatant need a rest to relax in a safe environment. If he doesn’t get one he burns out and is pushed on the verge of collapse, posing a threat to himself and his fellow soldiers.
As we see now Russia is fully unsucceptible to casualties. Is is the major problem of this war.
I think this is an excellent explanation. Most things consumed in excess (e.g. social media, TV, etc.) affects your brain in an unhealthy fashion and makes it difficult for others to comprehend the individual behavior. Same obviously here…
Because ruzzian soldiers "know" they will be tortured in Ukrainian's hands. Their officers prepare them with needed info like videos of castrations and other unimagined violence which is present in every war from both sides. But even that's not a norm it's enough to scare any usual soldier to death. Mind also that soldiers are very limited on info from "normal world", they mostly consume what are they proposed by their current environment, like rumors, scare stories and states propaganda.
Might be quite a few reasons. Desperation certainly part of it. But surrendering can be quite difficult practically. You need someone to accept your surrender and bring you out of the combat situation. It can take time and you might want to end this now. And you might of course fear your captors for a variety of good and not so good reasons. And maybe you are too proud to surrender in some way. Difficult to know of course, could be a host of different reasons.
It is really awful if the soldiers are so desperate as to commit suicide. But anyway I do not believe that Russian soldiers "are too proud to surrender". Even officers in the Russian army have no idea about honor andd pride. They are simply a mob of sadistic thieves and rapists.
I am very sure it is quite awfull. Reading Toms description of the figthing is enough, and there are countless of sources for its awfullness. So yes, I believe it can be awfull enough that death by suicide seems the best way out. Regarding being too proud to surrender, well maybe pride isnt the right term. I meant it more as a descrption of a stubborn conviction that there is something the person isnt willing to do. I am not denying that they are sadistic thieves an rapists, but in their own Minds (and they take the decision) they dont do something like surrender. But this is very much speculation, after all I have Neither data nor expertiencd to back my musings. So I might be totally wrong.
Here guys put it thoroughly : https://telegra.ph/Mify-osobistov-i-politrukov-CHem-promyvayut-mozg-rossijskim-mobilizovannym-i-kontraktnikam-08-17
Because of indoctrination. Putin's PRBS-machinery and their superiors are teaching them they're fighting 'Nazzo' (combination of NATO + Nazis) and are going to be tortured etc. if caught alive.
I suggest to rename every bilohorivka by numbering it, starting with "bilohorivka 1" to "bilohorivka 64337". Same with per(v/w)omajsk(kyi/e)
At least!
It's 'months' ago since I've issued an official demand for re-naming of all the 100+ Bilohorivkas in Ukraine. No matter in what way. Just rename them. Thanks a lot... :P
Isn't "New York" much better?
Thank you Tom.
Has Ukraine activated its operational reserves or are they still waiting?
Nope. The ZSU has about 35 brigades 'in strategic reserve'.
Sure, about a dozen of these are 'newly-established' and still undergoing training. Others are 'ready', but kept back. No matter what are Russians doing, nor where, the GenStab-U hasn't found it necessary to deploy them, yet. So, they're waiting for their turn.
Atop of that, every of 'Theatres of Operations' has 1, some even 2 brigades in operational reserve. These are regularly rotated with those in the line. For example, the 3rd Assault and 28th Mech are, presently, enjoying something like 'vacation'.
That's good to know!
Thanks for the powerful response!
Thanks Tom another good report, looks like the UAF's interdiction on the Russian supply lines is paying off, and its interesting with the bridge on the left bank
I have not seen videos or reports of the use of western battle tanks since the losses in the initial stages of the counter offensive. Bradleys, CV90s and other western armor seem to be in use, and also russian tanks are regularly seen active by the ukrainians. Have the Leopards and Challengers been concluded as unfit for the conditions on the front, or is their use just covered by OPSEC?
There should be two possible uses for them:
1) A mobile attack in the rear of the mine field. However, first the southern mine fields (+ anti-tank fortifications) should be penetrated.
2) A counterattack against the Russian tanks in the northeast (the Kupiansk direction). However, the Russian were unable to break through the Ukrainian fortifications (yet), thus no need for tanks.
The basic issue is that the tanks are vulnerable to mines, infantry (ATGM), helicopters and drones, thus every operation with them is likely to result in losses which are difficult to compensate. Thus they are kept for the targets they are good against, namely Soviet tanks and (probably) concrete fortifications.
Saw fresh videos of 2 Leopard 2s with tracks blown off in Zaporizhzhia around the Robotyne area. So they are still being used and seems they've done a great job. Unfortunate Ukraine doesn't have air cover to take out Russian GBAD and ground artillery systems.
Yesterday there was a video about the destruction of two UAF S-300 launchers plus their radar. It was claimed to be a new one and up till this moment Geoconfirmed didn't find an older post about it. The nasty surprise to me is that it happened near Zelenyi Hai, which is more than 55 km from the nearest frontline (Oleshky). To me it's highly unlikely that the Russians place long range arty right into a contested sector, so the real distance is more likely some 65km+. AFAIK up till now they had neither this long range precision strike capabilities, nor long rage surveillance to cover the strike.
Did I miss something?
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1691113888207552513
Surveillance drones are often being reported as hit over Kyiv amongst Shaheds.
And once a target is found, it can be hit even with Shaheds. Smerch and Tornado are advertised as 90+ km MLRS that could likely have been modified with a GPS targeting. Even the old Tochka-U is 120 km and has anti-radar missiles.
I tend to agree with those who say this is from the last year.
Hi Tom, some recent news namely the situation about Robotine an Uzhoradne seems to me a bit similar to 1944. When certain places are defended well beyond what its advantagous for the defender. In both case it seems like the primary goal of this tactics is to make the dictator happy. Do you think there is indeed such similarity or the current situation is completely different?
Actually, warm (above 0C) winters are quite dry here. The worst mud comes when the temperature stays about 0C for a while, with a layer of wet snow accumulating and then slowly melting.
If the next months are warm and dry, the mud season will be limited to February. In the worst case it may start in October and end in April.
However, the fields around the front line were not cultivated for more than a year and are said to be covered in undergrowth, meaning the mud will not be as deep as with a cultivated land.
I've been to Mljet. A very peaceful and beautiful place.
If you want to share their experience, check the forest northwest of Sobra. It's a dense little oak bush interwoven with some vines that bear very sharp slicing thorns. I was stuck in it for a while, finally found out that the vines can be torn with a club, and thus I was able to get through 100 or 200 meters of it.
And at Babyno Polie the host told me that they had a tourist lost in the forest for 3 days, after which a helicopter found him barely alive.
Now there goes a main asphalt road through the entire island at its southern side, around it are villages and desolated olive gardens. North of the road is the mountain ridge, and there is a good hiking route north of the mountains. And the northernmost part along the seashore - I don't know. Probably those forests with thorns and goats.
I still want to return there, walk around Babyno Polie for several days, and also get to the eastern part of the island I missed on my previous trip. The westernmost part got too many tourists, while I dislike crowds.
I wonder how the difficult supply situation for the Russians will impact their motivation as the weather turns cold. I know they are well adapted to living in frigid conditions, will they be able to cope with nasty weather, scarce supplies, and war?
Very interesting. Thanks
Their economy is getting worse and worse… the Rubel is collapsing and the inflation skyrocketing. But they will probably endure in some way.
I'm trying to avoid 'drawing parallels' to earlier conflicts, because - actually - no two wars are the same. If I'm using them then in attempt to make things easier to understand.
That said, yes, there's plenty of 'not an inch back' and 'to the last bullet' in this war, like in certain of earlier conflicts.
Thanks for The update, interesting as always and with a pinch of hope of near future good news.
Interesting update.
I am a bit surprised by the numbers mentioned - 200+ battle tanks and artillery and no movement by the Russians? This would be a quite powerful spearhead (if there aren't too many mines ahead).