It was very obvious even early on that the UAF has no effective coordination above the battalion level, and anything like a division or corps-level fires plan was beyond them.
The USA absolutely does have the tools to provide excellent tabletop command staff training, and spent tens of billions of dollars to develop these tools. But not a single person thought it was worthwhile to give the UAF this training?
Thank you Tom. The Ukrainian possessors of long-range weapons probably do not have a strategic level of cooperation because they do not have a strategy for their use. And this is already a claim to the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Now the Ukrainians see how the enemy regularly beats them with missiles and drones with impunity. And over time, the situation is only changing for the worse. At the same time, the Russians even in the immediate rear have both light and heat, and if here there are alarms every day for half a day, there they are only episodic (if they are announced at all) and do not affect the work process of enterprises and institutions.
The French press echoes the "partial dismantling" of the newly formed 155th Mechanized Brigade named Anne of kyiv; and "Also according to information from Mariana Bezuhla, the anti-aircraft defense battalion of the 155th Brigade, equipped with the French Mistral surface-to-air missile system, is no longer functioning, "due to a lack of specialists transferred to other units to work on (American systems) Stingers". The situation would be similar for the operators of the Milan anti-tank system."
The article says that Colonel Dmitry Ryumshin was replaced by Colonel Taras Maksimov on December 11, but without giving any reason. If he resigned, we can assume that it was to show his opposition to what the article describes as a huge waste of resources.
Well, according to a source in Ukraine, Bezuhla's story isn't true. That comes from Kriegsforscher, drone pilot in Ukrainian marines, he was an Oryx contributor at the start of the war and is usually reliable. https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1868169963577700445
"Do U know what’s funny? It’s 100% not true. Nothing at all.
Unfortunately, there are some other problems. But brigade is alive. They exist. They have problems with drones. That’s all you can know for now."
I guess they're probably just as mismanaged, with units parceled out across the front as with other brigades, but overall, it's still a shocking state of affairs.
The fact that such a high-profile unit doesn't have a good supply of drones shows how much the logistical system is still in shambles. If the unit doesn't have a social media presence and good contacts with volunteers, they can't rely on the system to get everything they need, even the basics.
Thank you for this update. I had noticed this lack of consistency in the Ukrainian attacks, but thought that there was some reason behind it. Well, I guess lack of coordination is a reason of course. But a stupid one. If Ukraine is to make the best use of its drones and long range systems it needs to have a plan and coordinate. Even us armchair generals get that.
Thanks for the update, been waiting for an explanation of the reason for the sharp decline in the use of glide bombs, the russian airframe degradation problems are a ray of sunshine at a bleak time. The lack of strategy in which objects are targeted in Russia is painfully obvious and seems to have little effect on Russia's military capabilities, perhaps if the refineries were a constant target without interruption things might be different but I'm not so sure, Siberia has refineries and the distance is very great. I've not understood why the railway network, locomotives and it's electrical infrastructure have not been a target at all, perhaps it's too great an objective?
Perhaps I am suggesting what would be considered a war crime (i.e., the direct targeting of civilian facilities), but does Ukraine have the ability (with long range UAVs for example) to attack Moscow's and maybe St. Petersberg's electrical utility industry? I know this sounds like tit-for-tat, but motivating the European Russian population into something more than mere acquiescence might affect negatively Putin's sense of personal equanimity.
I also noticed how quickly the Ukrainian air attacks lose focus. First, they were about refineries and ever was counting how much Russian gasoline production was down. Afterwards, they started targeting some power plants, afterwards were the airbases, then fuel depots - and so on but everything seemed to lack coordination and never actual shortages were the results (with the exception of the brief success with the attacks of several large ammo depots)
Netanyahu refused a visit by Zelensky but was very quick to welcome Elon Musk who actually was retweeting anti-Israeli attacks and seemed to enjoy the initial attack by Hamas until he realised that much more powerful business lobbies were with Israel.
This should have been enough for most of the Ukrainians to realise what is Bibi’s stance
After Elon's little trip to visit the fake crying wall and look at piles of shoes he came back and started censoring anti-zio content on X. So clearly, Bibi the Polish immigrant made the right call here.
When reading your books about Iran-Iraq war I always wondered how the Iraqi air force had to waste 8 years to finally hit enough strategic targets in quick succession to enable the end of the war. Sadly, seems PSU will need it's own 8 years, before getting things together
Thanks for the report and no thanks for making me shake my head again about the Ukrainian commanders because of your report.
I found the part about the UMPKs quite surprising though and that naturally leads me to the question of how the Russian arms industry is doing?
The country will not run out of material of course, but it is an important indicator of Russia's general resilience how the arms industry is doing. This is not just about production, but also about maintenance and repair of all military equipment and vehicles.
Can you perhaps say a few words about this?
Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain such figures because Putin promptly classifies any statistics that do not report new records as top secret.
Just a few days ago, the statistics on purchasing behavior were classified as top secret, which supposedly means that not even the Russian central bank has access to this data, which is essential for determining inflation and interest rates. In other words, if all this is true, the Russian central bank really cannot do anything other than roll the dice on interest rates in the future.
I think that the map shows only ballistic missiles (the sixth point of the legend) and no X-22/X-32.
The X-22/X-32 has a slightly different color and shape.
Щось мені підказує що ваш мізинець: Аналітичний мудрець, це з повагою було сказано, не в іронічному чи саркастичному контексті!
Yup, my little toe and its itches... :P
You should have that checked out. Could be fungus. :D
Intelligent fungi?
It was very obvious even early on that the UAF has no effective coordination above the battalion level, and anything like a division or corps-level fires plan was beyond them.
The USA absolutely does have the tools to provide excellent tabletop command staff training, and spent tens of billions of dollars to develop these tools. But not a single person thought it was worthwhile to give the UAF this training?
Thank you
Thank you Tom. The Ukrainian possessors of long-range weapons probably do not have a strategic level of cooperation because they do not have a strategy for their use. And this is already a claim to the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Now the Ukrainians see how the enemy regularly beats them with missiles and drones with impunity. And over time, the situation is only changing for the worse. At the same time, the Russians even in the immediate rear have both light and heat, and if here there are alarms every day for half a day, there they are only episodic (if they are announced at all) and do not affect the work process of enterprises and institutions.
The French press echoes the "partial dismantling" of the newly formed 155th Mechanized Brigade named Anne of kyiv; and "Also according to information from Mariana Bezuhla, the anti-aircraft defense battalion of the 155th Brigade, equipped with the French Mistral surface-to-air missile system, is no longer functioning, "due to a lack of specialists transferred to other units to work on (American systems) Stingers". The situation would be similar for the operators of the Milan anti-tank system."
https://www.lavoixdunord.fr/1533644/article/2024-12-14/comme-un-donneur-d-organes-la-155e-brigade-mecanisee-formee-en-france-en-partie
Not a good sign, if true.
Such battalions need to function as integrated units for maximum effect
The commander has quit after the unit returned. Not encouraging.
The article says that Colonel Dmitry Ryumshin was replaced by Colonel Taras Maksimov on December 11, but without giving any reason. If he resigned, we can assume that it was to show his opposition to what the article describes as a huge waste of resources.
This is just shocking, good luck getting another brigade trained and equipped similarly, after what happened to them
Well, according to a source in Ukraine, Bezuhla's story isn't true. That comes from Kriegsforscher, drone pilot in Ukrainian marines, he was an Oryx contributor at the start of the war and is usually reliable. https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1868169963577700445
"Do U know what’s funny? It’s 100% not true. Nothing at all.
Unfortunately, there are some other problems. But brigade is alive. They exist. They have problems with drones. That’s all you can know for now."
I guess they're probably just as mismanaged, with units parceled out across the front as with other brigades, but overall, it's still a shocking state of affairs.
The fact that such a high-profile unit doesn't have a good supply of drones shows how much the logistical system is still in shambles. If the unit doesn't have a social media presence and good contacts with volunteers, they can't rely on the system to get everything they need, even the basics.
Any thoughts on Lutsenko's replacement with Tarnavskyi ?
Israel Russia , best buddies... not for nothing Israel said that its retired MIM-23 Hawks were just junk and could not be transferred to Ukraine - https://www.jns.org/israeli-hawk-missiles-and-the-war-in-ukraine/
And hundreds of artillery, armor vehicles and another stuff can give to ukranie years ago
Thank you for this update. I had noticed this lack of consistency in the Ukrainian attacks, but thought that there was some reason behind it. Well, I guess lack of coordination is a reason of course. But a stupid one. If Ukraine is to make the best use of its drones and long range systems it needs to have a plan and coordinate. Even us armchair generals get that.
Thanks for the update, been waiting for an explanation of the reason for the sharp decline in the use of glide bombs, the russian airframe degradation problems are a ray of sunshine at a bleak time. The lack of strategy in which objects are targeted in Russia is painfully obvious and seems to have little effect on Russia's military capabilities, perhaps if the refineries were a constant target without interruption things might be different but I'm not so sure, Siberia has refineries and the distance is very great. I've not understood why the railway network, locomotives and it's electrical infrastructure have not been a target at all, perhaps it's too great an objective?
Perhaps I am suggesting what would be considered a war crime (i.e., the direct targeting of civilian facilities), but does Ukraine have the ability (with long range UAVs for example) to attack Moscow's and maybe St. Petersberg's electrical utility industry? I know this sounds like tit-for-tat, but motivating the European Russian population into something more than mere acquiescence might affect negatively Putin's sense of personal equanimity.
Thanks Tom.
I also noticed how quickly the Ukrainian air attacks lose focus. First, they were about refineries and ever was counting how much Russian gasoline production was down. Afterwards, they started targeting some power plants, afterwards were the airbases, then fuel depots - and so on but everything seemed to lack coordination and never actual shortages were the results (with the exception of the brief success with the attacks of several large ammo depots)
Thanks to Tom, I can see the strategic plan I was looking for going on three years now doesn't exist. The Big Bridge should have come down long ago.
Netanyahu refused a visit by Zelensky but was very quick to welcome Elon Musk who actually was retweeting anti-Israeli attacks and seemed to enjoy the initial attack by Hamas until he realised that much more powerful business lobbies were with Israel.
This should have been enough for most of the Ukrainians to realise what is Bibi’s stance
After Elon's little trip to visit the fake crying wall and look at piles of shoes he came back and started censoring anti-zio content on X. So clearly, Bibi the Polish immigrant made the right call here.
I finished all my difficult presents for christmas today, with some help from St. Mykolaj, so from today i am all into the updates again :-)
I apologize, but seems 'X22' is the only a part of the legend of that slide - no track for this missile type is exposed.
Tu-22 are always detected and recognized properly by the PSU - there were no notifications that ones participated in that air strike.
When reading your books about Iran-Iraq war I always wondered how the Iraqi air force had to waste 8 years to finally hit enough strategic targets in quick succession to enable the end of the war. Sadly, seems PSU will need it's own 8 years, before getting things together
They had more than a decade already (since 2014) to learn
Thanks for the report and no thanks for making me shake my head again about the Ukrainian commanders because of your report.
I found the part about the UMPKs quite surprising though and that naturally leads me to the question of how the Russian arms industry is doing?
The country will not run out of material of course, but it is an important indicator of Russia's general resilience how the arms industry is doing. This is not just about production, but also about maintenance and repair of all military equipment and vehicles.
Can you perhaps say a few words about this?
Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain such figures because Putin promptly classifies any statistics that do not report new records as top secret.
Just a few days ago, the statistics on purchasing behavior were classified as top secret, which supposedly means that not even the Russian central bank has access to this data, which is essential for determining inflation and interest rates. In other words, if all this is true, the Russian central bank really cannot do anything other than roll the dice on interest rates in the future.