I wonder whether Luke Harding reads your information:
Russia says 10 settlements recaptured in Kursk counteroffensive
Ukrainian president says his country’s incursion still going to ‘plan’, as Russian forces make rapid advances
Luke Harding in Kyiv The Guardian
Thu 12 Sep 2024 18.51 CEST
Russia says its forces have recaptured 10 settlements after it launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region to push out Ukrainian troops who stormed across the border five weeks ago.
With fierce fighting continuing, Russia’s defence ministry listed the names of 10 settlements it said it had retaken, in a significant blow to Kyiv. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, acknowledged a Russian counteroffensive had begun.
It follows Ukraine’s surprise cross-border attack last month into western Russia. Zelenskiy said his armed forces had anticipated Russia’s assault this week and the operation was still going to plan.
A mechanised raid began on Tuesday, according to Russian military bloggers. Russian forces pushed forward from the village of Korenevo and quickly advanced south into Snagost.
They have regained a number of villages, with two more – Krasnooktyabrskoe and Komarovka – reportedly having been captured on Thursday. One objective was to “bisect” Ukraine’s 1,000 sq km salient within Russia, cutting off its western flank, observers suggested.
Unfortunately they vastly influence the general sentiment. In Germany you see how politicians only gradually got many things rolling ( and stalling again ) due to the general main stream headlines and obviously not going much deeper…but where are then all the intelligence departments ? 10crummy villages, if at all ….
Is it 10 villages? Is it 15? Is it 5? Does it matter? Is it surprising?
Sadly, collective lying to one-self is en vogue all over the world, nowadays. Particularly so in Germany and Austria.
Our entire oligarchy, politics, and especially media are wholeheartedly supporting a genocide on Palestinians, because we're systemically indoctrinated that this is some sort of 'compensation' for the Holocaust, and Israel is a 'happy end of Holocaust'.
And since we're supporting one genocide, why should we then care about another - by the Russians in Ukraine?
After all, we're so much 'Welt-offen' and 'tollerant' that we don't want to make our fingers dirty with any of these affairs: just please send us cheap gas from Russia, and silence the Palestinians, so we can have clear conscience and enjoy another vacation at Mallorca. Thanks a lot.
....and then we all can't figure out how comes the likes of AfD, BWS, and FPÖ are attracting so many voters?!?
While, actually, our own lies are sabotaging the entire system: the AfD, BWS, and the FPÖ are not lying. They are openly neo-Nazis, racist, and xenophobic. Just like, actually, much of our public. The only aspect where our neo-Nazis and populists are lying is that they're going to 'solve the problem of illegal immigration' - through 'stringent controls at the borders'...?
If this wouldn't be tragic enough, it would be a great joke...
More deeply, the Bible and the shame of so many Christians over anti-Semitism. Reinhold Niebuhr, author of the famous Serenity Prayer, is a good example. The Bible stories are very memorable and an extremely and mistakenly Zionist interpretation has taken hold
I do not know much about religion, especially not about Christianity (I'm better in distinguishing different sects of Islam simply because I've had to learn to do so due to my profession).
However, I do know one thing: the entire story of Zionism was started with an atheist (Theodor Herzl) convincing a bunch of followers HE - a person not believing in 'God' - is going to 'find the land promised by God's for hand-picked people'....
....and... kill me, can't recall if it was Shlomo Sand or Ilan Pappe (one of the two, and both are leading Izraeli historians), who concluded that over 85% of Zionists are faithfully along that line: not believing in 'God', not the least religious, but firmly convinced 'God promised that land' (Palestine) to them...
I think that the first book length argument that deserves to be called Zionist was published in 1621 by Sir Henry Finch MP. He called it The Great Restauration. James I was annoyed
The point has been made by a commenter on a couple of articles on Haaretz that there was no one rabbi present at the signing of Israel's declaration of independence.
And it was the fact that the Zionists were secular Jewish Socialists that led Stalin to have Czechoslovakia to supply them with arms in the '48 War of Independence.'
Balfour and the fact of the British Mandate for Palestine probably had as much to do with the fact that Israel was established in the historic Jewish Homeland.
Russia listed ten villages they now controlled? You believe it? They might believe it themselves. And it might of course be a success Even for 5. But who control what there will change. Lets wait a little.
Dear Tom, had no idea about Khomutovka, but if this was success, it is big, ooh.. It is a second, and the only remaining relatively clear, supply route for the whole Rylsk group of forces
This cross-road is well known as there you are "turning to Moscow" .
I mean, this Bachivsk - Troebortnoe border crossing point was very popular years ago for ones, who was travelling UA-RU and vice-versa.
I'm trying to explain, that any hint on our ZSU appearance at this cross road would immediately result into the clickbait news - "We are approaching Moscow!".
But, the only silence.
Just curious, how did you come to state that, what is your source? )
Yep, I read thoroughly the explanation on how you mine your information. But me is stupid enough to ask the question)
If the UKR can take khumutovka and also Lgov (is that a possibility?), then it looks like the Russian forces in and around Korenova and in the Glushkvovo area will be cut of from supplies.
Thank you for your daily commentary on the conflict(s). As an old long retired USAF member, I have to wonder if the US/NATO members are providing just enough weapons/ammo and info to keep the combat going. Both sides seem to be losing hundreds if not thousands of troops daily, with the Russians numbers being higher. It is to the West's advantage for the war to be more costly for the Russians in losing troops/equipment in the long run as they are slowly being bleed dry. Is this an observation of you and others or am I way off track. As a side note, the U.S. and Allies, seem to be reenergizing their weapons/ammunition manufactures as our present stocks (and of older munitions) are being replaced with newer stock. Thanks again for the good work and carry on.
For 'the West' (see: our super-rich) it's of advantage to continue this war for a while longer, because long wars are securing handsome profits for years in advance. But, it's not of advantage for Russia to lose, because it might fall apart if it does, and then they have to create a separate branch for each of follow-up states. Which would decrease their profits, because extra branch = extra offices & extra employees...
Therefore, it's a 'higher national interest' to keep Puding happy, and alive... and if that costs a few Ukrainian lives... who and why should people earning 20+ billion a year care?
Important is that, for example and about a week after the war is over... in some 10-15-20 years, Amazon Prime, or StarLink, or ExxonMobile, or Deutsche Bank and Raiffeisen International (and a few dozens of other, similar corporations) can return to Russia and to business as usual.
...and since the same super-rich are owning anywhere between 80% and 95% of what is to own (depends on the country in question), including political parties and the media, that's also how our politicians are 'administering' the situation. While keeping their taxation low, too.
That's why Ukraine is receiving plenty of pledges and hot air, but overall: 'too little to survive, and too much to die'...
Don't think so. Beijing is foremost interested in stability, so it can continue expanding its economy at a rate of 500% every 20 years.
But, if the West is dumb enough to think it can win more market shares through modelling a never-ending war in Ukraine.... and remains distracted that way for another 15-20 years, plus dismantles its own pluralism: that's great for the Chinese Communist Party and thus the PRC too.
Offers more time to gain and secure footholds elsewhere around the World and is a proof that dictatorship works better.
Without Chinese support, the war would be over already. E.g. winter gear in November 2022 (hundreds of Russian soldiers died by hypothermia before that), bearings, spare parts, chips and even old chip printing machines from ASML.
Yes, you may say, similar stuff is sold to Russia by some Western companies, too. But without direct Chinese support even that export would be much lower and certainly without some high-tech goodies. It's not like Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan - if these stop resell banned goods, nothing much happens (it would go via China). When China decides to stop support Russia, then they are screwed.
If by support you mean just selling products, China supported Ukraine just as much as it did Russia by selling "banned" goods (banned by whom ?) until Ukrainians decided to focus on building their domestic sector of weaponized drone.
Currently China is merely selling goods to customers. If Russians are paying for soldiers' winter clothes, Chinese compagnies will sell them. If Putin stopped the war this weekend and decided to spend the military budget to boost household demand, Chinese companies would sell them whatever Russian households want.
It is fundamentally different from the Western states who do "support" Ukraine from their own pocket ... mainly to divest their public funding toward the western oligarchy through military contract. Ence why military production has barely been boosted : all of it goes straight to generate ever bigger profits.
The latter is why there is such a discrepancy between Ukraine's need in weapons types, in quantity and in timing vs the "support" Western states offer. The "support" is only meant to enrich further our oligarchy. It would only be a positive externality if this "support" actually enabled Ukraine to win. An indirect & inadvertent consequence.
Yes, Western support to Ukraine is open, Chinese support to Russia is covert, but it's not about the business only. If they would want to stop the war, they could do it in the November 2022, that winter gear sale was a penny for them. Political and military consequences were more important.
Yes, because it's good business: because Beijing can demand 4-10 times the usual price, and Pudding is as stupid as to pay for it.
You can be sure, Xi & Co KG GesmbH AG are having great times - even more so because without all these sales to Russia, there would be a major economic crisis in the PRC.
So, no 'support', and nothing personal: just business. If China would want to support Pudding, the Russians would still (or again) be in the suburbs of Kyiv.
Of course, Xi would like very much to support Russia, so as they are in Lviv already and war is over. Then Xi with Putler would persuade EU to accept that as fait accompli and make business as usual with them. And next in the line would be Taiwan. (Beside that China would make money from selling arms and ammo to Russia, too.) Xi just worry EU and US would not accept that, make total sanction and impact on their economy. And because Xi worry to support Russia openly to win, he support it to prolong the war, which is also good for him. China do not want "peace and stability" always, they want whatever make them overcome USA.
If they would want to stop the war, they could do it in the November 2022, that winter gear sale was a penny for them. Political and military consequences were more important.
China may no longer be much interested in prolonging the war, but I believe their support for Russia until now was due to their desire for stability. Support = Putin remains in power = stability (at least so far). That 3 hour (180 minute!!) "Robust" meeting between Yi and Kuleba was an eye-opener for me. The Middle Kingdom doesn't do things like that all the time. It spoke to me of China realizing Russia's stability is no longer something they have too much control over.
Doubt it. The war creates unstability, disrupts trade and threathens all Belt and Silkroad initiatives. There are of course some benefits, but also the risk of an economic conflict with West that China doesnt need. Its economy has enough problems. I guess they want to end the war, but as peacemakers. Dont know how to do it. (Asking Putin to Go home might or might not work.)
China has definetly benefitted from the war and supporting Putin. To what degree do they now want it to continue? Continued war means continued risk. Benefits have largly been reaped. A Nice weakening of Russia. What more is really to be gained? I am not saying they will do much to end it, but I doubt they care so much. USA is first and foremost interessed in avoiding Russian collapse, while at the same time avoiding Ukraines total loss, thus effectively a prolongation.
China hopes the war will weaken the Western economies and will destabilise the Western establishment (via far-right or far left movements, societal division, migration etc) to a high extent. The Chinese goal is to replace the USA as first global economy (and power). They stated that goal already back at the congress when Xi was reelected as party head and they still hope they can achieve it and they still consider the war is eroding the West in their benefit. Putin is only a tool for China now. The West still holds. We will see.
Really, just look at the Russian gas and oil still flowing to Europe through the Ukraine.
In early August, Ukraine imposed its own sanctions on Russian privately held oil producer Lukoil. What happened? Lukoil simply sold its oil to another Russian oil company who shipped it through Ukraine.
I am not denying lots of strange and stupid things happen in a war. It also creates opportunities. Still I stand by my original statement of disruption, your example nothwith standing.
«For 'the West' (see: our super-rich) it's of advantage to continue this war for a while longer, because long wars are securing handsome profits for years in advance. But, it's not of advantage for Russia to lose, because it might fall apart if it does, and then they have to create a separate branch for each of follow-up states. Which would decrease their profits, because extra branch = extra offices & extra employees...» – Indeed, one of the reasons why the oligarchy is dragging out this war is excess profits. But you never have to think linearly. Oligarchs think multitasking to squeeze the maximum out of the situation. That is why they are elite. Another reason may be the use of the Ukrainian card in the elections, so that the oligarchs can push their advantageous candidates. Also, the distraction of the own population from internal problems in the country. These reasons can be many. The main one, of course, is profit. Yes, it is profitable for the oligarchs to keep Russia intact and seize it from China, but without Putin. I think everything will come to the point that they will just poison him like Stalin, or kill their financial circles. Putin interferes with doing business. In the West, there is already some kind of Russian "opposition" that is connected with specific oligarchic clans or under the Kremlin clans. They, in turn, will find a way to negotiate with other financial circles of the Kremlin. And at the expense of human lives, no one ever counts them. The coordinate system in which the oligarchy lives, when they realize themselves in life at someone else's expense, does not allow them to look at the situation from the point of view of ordinary mortals, from the point of view of the ordinary plebs. They consider themselves no less than gods, and everyone else is dirt under their nails. Therefore, for them, it is all a game of numbers and zeros on their account. I'm not talking about the fact that these people, who have an incredible amount of resources in their hands, who are practically gods above the law, on whom so much depends, that in this struggle with each other they can get mental disorders from old resentments and failures. A vivid example of this is the person of Elon Musk. He has been taking antidepressants for years and has many old grudges against other oligarchs.
Yeah, trying to keep an updated map of this fight is an exercise in futility. I am liking how that southern attack is looking though, nice location to do a lot of damage.
Let's give credit to all our sovereignistic, truth-seeking, christianly conservative parties bankrolled by Putin - they've been claiming for over two years now that Russia absolutely had to launch a preemptive strike, because Ukraine was going to attack. And lo, they are!
This is why I mostly stick with a weekly sampling frame. It's kind of impossible to have any real idea of what's happening below the battalion level because people are literally making the future with their blood sacrifice.
My take so far remains that Ukraine has been conserving its strength in Kursk by not pressing too far in anticipation of exactly this. If Moscow committed to a major punch, but Ukraine has enough reserves available, the orcs just walked into an operational ambush. The road south from Korenovo to Snagost is an awfully thin lifeline to rely on...
Tom, your updates and books on Ukraine are greatly appreciated! However, do you still have time to work on different projects like “Lebanese Cvil War” and “The June 1967 Arab-Israeli War” or we will have to wait for them?
Thanks, I do still have the time for other projects. Lebanese Civil War 4 will be out by the end of the year. Just not sure about 1967 Vol. 2: that's not on me, though.
Otherwise, Ukraine 7 is short of heading into the print; 8, 9, and 10 are under construction and, I hope, are all going to out by the end of the year.
Thanks Tom! This new attack maybe was unexpected by the Russians, full North africana vibes here!
I wonder whether Luke Harding reads your information:
Russia says 10 settlements recaptured in Kursk counteroffensive
Ukrainian president says his country’s incursion still going to ‘plan’, as Russian forces make rapid advances
Luke Harding in Kyiv The Guardian
Thu 12 Sep 2024 18.51 CEST
Russia says its forces have recaptured 10 settlements after it launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region to push out Ukrainian troops who stormed across the border five weeks ago.
With fierce fighting continuing, Russia’s defence ministry listed the names of 10 settlements it said it had retaken, in a significant blow to Kyiv. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, acknowledged a Russian counteroffensive had begun.
It follows Ukraine’s surprise cross-border attack last month into western Russia. Zelenskiy said his armed forces had anticipated Russia’s assault this week and the operation was still going to plan.
A mechanised raid began on Tuesday, according to Russian military bloggers. Russian forces pushed forward from the village of Korenevo and quickly advanced south into Snagost.
They have regained a number of villages, with two more – Krasnooktyabrskoe and Komarovka – reportedly having been captured on Thursday. One objective was to “bisect” Ukraine’s 1,000 sq km salient within Russia, cutting off its western flank, observers suggested.
When it's raining outside, Oliver, one's got two options:
a) listen to the weather forecast and keep on guessing whether it's raining, or
b) one goes outside to check...or contacts somebody who is outside and can tell whether it's raining or not.
The same is valid for 'journalists', too.
Unfortunately they vastly influence the general sentiment. In Germany you see how politicians only gradually got many things rolling ( and stalling again ) due to the general main stream headlines and obviously not going much deeper…but where are then all the intelligence departments ? 10crummy villages, if at all ….
Is it 10 villages? Is it 15? Is it 5? Does it matter? Is it surprising?
Sadly, collective lying to one-self is en vogue all over the world, nowadays. Particularly so in Germany and Austria.
Our entire oligarchy, politics, and especially media are wholeheartedly supporting a genocide on Palestinians, because we're systemically indoctrinated that this is some sort of 'compensation' for the Holocaust, and Israel is a 'happy end of Holocaust'.
And since we're supporting one genocide, why should we then care about another - by the Russians in Ukraine?
After all, we're so much 'Welt-offen' and 'tollerant' that we don't want to make our fingers dirty with any of these affairs: just please send us cheap gas from Russia, and silence the Palestinians, so we can have clear conscience and enjoy another vacation at Mallorca. Thanks a lot.
....and then we all can't figure out how comes the likes of AfD, BWS, and FPÖ are attracting so many voters?!?
While, actually, our own lies are sabotaging the entire system: the AfD, BWS, and the FPÖ are not lying. They are openly neo-Nazis, racist, and xenophobic. Just like, actually, much of our public. The only aspect where our neo-Nazis and populists are lying is that they're going to 'solve the problem of illegal immigration' - through 'stringent controls at the borders'...?
If this wouldn't be tragic enough, it would be a great joke...
More deeply, the Bible and the shame of so many Christians over anti-Semitism. Reinhold Niebuhr, author of the famous Serenity Prayer, is a good example. The Bible stories are very memorable and an extremely and mistakenly Zionist interpretation has taken hold
I do not know much about religion, especially not about Christianity (I'm better in distinguishing different sects of Islam simply because I've had to learn to do so due to my profession).
However, I do know one thing: the entire story of Zionism was started with an atheist (Theodor Herzl) convincing a bunch of followers HE - a person not believing in 'God' - is going to 'find the land promised by God's for hand-picked people'....
....and... kill me, can't recall if it was Shlomo Sand or Ilan Pappe (one of the two, and both are leading Izraeli historians), who concluded that over 85% of Zionists are faithfully along that line: not believing in 'God', not the least religious, but firmly convinced 'God promised that land' (Palestine) to them...
I think that the first book length argument that deserves to be called Zionist was published in 1621 by Sir Henry Finch MP. He called it The Great Restauration. James I was annoyed
The point has been made by a commenter on a couple of articles on Haaretz that there was no one rabbi present at the signing of Israel's declaration of independence.
And it was the fact that the Zionists were secular Jewish Socialists that led Stalin to have Czechoslovakia to supply them with arms in the '48 War of Independence.'
Balfour and the fact of the British Mandate for Palestine probably had as much to do with the fact that Israel was established in the historic Jewish Homeland.
Russia listed ten villages they now controlled? You believe it? They might believe it themselves. And it might of course be a success Even for 5. But who control what there will change. Lets wait a little.
My guess is that these villages were in no man's land, that the RF had abandoned them but the UAF hadn't occupied and defended them.
Dear Tom, had no idea about Khomutovka, but if this was success, it is big, ooh.. It is a second, and the only remaining relatively clear, supply route for the whole Rylsk group of forces
Not yet inside Khomutovka: the highway-crossing is about 60% of the way from the border to there.
Even getting through the border there is a great success.
At least the minefields are not as thick as in southern Zaporizhzhya.
Hm, the only silence here in Ukraine about it....
This cross-road is well known as there you are "turning to Moscow" .
I mean, this Bachivsk - Troebortnoe border crossing point was very popular years ago for ones, who was travelling UA-RU and vice-versa.
I'm trying to explain, that any hint on our ZSU appearance at this cross road would immediately result into the clickbait news - "We are approaching Moscow!".
But, the only silence.
Just curious, how did you come to state that, what is your source? )
Yep, I read thoroughly the explanation on how you mine your information. But me is stupid enough to ask the question)
If the UKR can take khumutovka and also Lgov (is that a possibility?), then it looks like the Russian forces in and around Korenova and in the Glushkvovo area will be cut of from supplies.
Let's see, I would not pump expectations there, it is still very big group of forces. But of course that would complicate their lives significantly.
Thank you for your daily commentary on the conflict(s). As an old long retired USAF member, I have to wonder if the US/NATO members are providing just enough weapons/ammo and info to keep the combat going. Both sides seem to be losing hundreds if not thousands of troops daily, with the Russians numbers being higher. It is to the West's advantage for the war to be more costly for the Russians in losing troops/equipment in the long run as they are slowly being bleed dry. Is this an observation of you and others or am I way off track. As a side note, the U.S. and Allies, seem to be reenergizing their weapons/ammunition manufactures as our present stocks (and of older munitions) are being replaced with newer stock. Thanks again for the good work and carry on.
For 'the West' (see: our super-rich) it's of advantage to continue this war for a while longer, because long wars are securing handsome profits for years in advance. But, it's not of advantage for Russia to lose, because it might fall apart if it does, and then they have to create a separate branch for each of follow-up states. Which would decrease their profits, because extra branch = extra offices & extra employees...
Therefore, it's a 'higher national interest' to keep Puding happy, and alive... and if that costs a few Ukrainian lives... who and why should people earning 20+ billion a year care?
Important is that, for example and about a week after the war is over... in some 10-15-20 years, Amazon Prime, or StarLink, or ExxonMobile, or Deutsche Bank and Raiffeisen International (and a few dozens of other, similar corporations) can return to Russia and to business as usual.
...and since the same super-rich are owning anywhere between 80% and 95% of what is to own (depends on the country in question), including political parties and the media, that's also how our politicians are 'administering' the situation. While keeping their taxation low, too.
That's why Ukraine is receiving plenty of pledges and hot air, but overall: 'too little to survive, and too much to die'...
The one most interested in prolonging the war is China.
Don't think so. Beijing is foremost interested in stability, so it can continue expanding its economy at a rate of 500% every 20 years.
But, if the West is dumb enough to think it can win more market shares through modelling a never-ending war in Ukraine.... and remains distracted that way for another 15-20 years, plus dismantles its own pluralism: that's great for the Chinese Communist Party and thus the PRC too.
Offers more time to gain and secure footholds elsewhere around the World and is a proof that dictatorship works better.
Without Chinese support, the war would be over already. E.g. winter gear in November 2022 (hundreds of Russian soldiers died by hypothermia before that), bearings, spare parts, chips and even old chip printing machines from ASML.
Yes, you may say, similar stuff is sold to Russia by some Western companies, too. But without direct Chinese support even that export would be much lower and certainly without some high-tech goodies. It's not like Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan - if these stop resell banned goods, nothing much happens (it would go via China). When China decides to stop support Russia, then they are screwed.
Define "support"
If by support you mean just selling products, China supported Ukraine just as much as it did Russia by selling "banned" goods (banned by whom ?) until Ukrainians decided to focus on building their domestic sector of weaponized drone.
Currently China is merely selling goods to customers. If Russians are paying for soldiers' winter clothes, Chinese compagnies will sell them. If Putin stopped the war this weekend and decided to spend the military budget to boost household demand, Chinese companies would sell them whatever Russian households want.
It is fundamentally different from the Western states who do "support" Ukraine from their own pocket ... mainly to divest their public funding toward the western oligarchy through military contract. Ence why military production has barely been boosted : all of it goes straight to generate ever bigger profits.
The latter is why there is such a discrepancy between Ukraine's need in weapons types, in quantity and in timing vs the "support" Western states offer. The "support" is only meant to enrich further our oligarchy. It would only be a positive externality if this "support" actually enabled Ukraine to win. An indirect & inadvertent consequence.
Yes, Western support to Ukraine is open, Chinese support to Russia is covert, but it's not about the business only. If they would want to stop the war, they could do it in the November 2022, that winter gear sale was a penny for them. Political and military consequences were more important.
Ukraine decided to make even small drones domestically, because China has stopped to sell them to UA directly (they still received them via EU), e.g. see https://www.eurasiantimes.com/header-chinese-drones-in-ukraine-russian/ Unlike Russians receive support directly https://x.com/RALee85/status/1834672687005696465 - and these are big drones with gasoline engines.
Yes, because it's good business: because Beijing can demand 4-10 times the usual price, and Pudding is as stupid as to pay for it.
You can be sure, Xi & Co KG GesmbH AG are having great times - even more so because without all these sales to Russia, there would be a major economic crisis in the PRC.
So, no 'support', and nothing personal: just business. If China would want to support Pudding, the Russians would still (or again) be in the suburbs of Kyiv.
Of course, Xi would like very much to support Russia, so as they are in Lviv already and war is over. Then Xi with Putler would persuade EU to accept that as fait accompli and make business as usual with them. And next in the line would be Taiwan. (Beside that China would make money from selling arms and ammo to Russia, too.) Xi just worry EU and US would not accept that, make total sanction and impact on their economy. And because Xi worry to support Russia openly to win, he support it to prolong the war, which is also good for him. China do not want "peace and stability" always, they want whatever make them overcome USA.
If they would want to stop the war, they could do it in the November 2022, that winter gear sale was a penny for them. Political and military consequences were more important.
China may no longer be much interested in prolonging the war, but I believe their support for Russia until now was due to their desire for stability. Support = Putin remains in power = stability (at least so far). That 3 hour (180 minute!!) "Robust" meeting between Yi and Kuleba was an eye-opener for me. The Middle Kingdom doesn't do things like that all the time. It spoke to me of China realizing Russia's stability is no longer something they have too much control over.
Doubt it. The war creates unstability, disrupts trade and threathens all Belt and Silkroad initiatives. There are of course some benefits, but also the risk of an economic conflict with West that China doesnt need. Its economy has enough problems. I guess they want to end the war, but as peacemakers. Dont know how to do it. (Asking Putin to Go home might or might not work.)
Yes, Xi Jinping didn't want to start the war, but when it started already, he decided to fuel Russia to keep the war going, see my answer above.
China has definetly benefitted from the war and supporting Putin. To what degree do they now want it to continue? Continued war means continued risk. Benefits have largly been reaped. A Nice weakening of Russia. What more is really to be gained? I am not saying they will do much to end it, but I doubt they care so much. USA is first and foremost interessed in avoiding Russian collapse, while at the same time avoiding Ukraines total loss, thus effectively a prolongation.
China hopes the war will weaken the Western economies and will destabilise the Western establishment (via far-right or far left movements, societal division, migration etc) to a high extent. The Chinese goal is to replace the USA as first global economy (and power). They stated that goal already back at the congress when Xi was reelected as party head and they still hope they can achieve it and they still consider the war is eroding the West in their benefit. Putin is only a tool for China now. The West still holds. We will see.
" The war creates unstability, disrupts trade"
Really, just look at the Russian gas and oil still flowing to Europe through the Ukraine.
In early August, Ukraine imposed its own sanctions on Russian privately held oil producer Lukoil. What happened? Lukoil simply sold its oil to another Russian oil company who shipped it through Ukraine.
I am not denying lots of strange and stupid things happen in a war. It also creates opportunities. Still I stand by my original statement of disruption, your example nothwith standing.
«For 'the West' (see: our super-rich) it's of advantage to continue this war for a while longer, because long wars are securing handsome profits for years in advance. But, it's not of advantage for Russia to lose, because it might fall apart if it does, and then they have to create a separate branch for each of follow-up states. Which would decrease their profits, because extra branch = extra offices & extra employees...» – Indeed, one of the reasons why the oligarchy is dragging out this war is excess profits. But you never have to think linearly. Oligarchs think multitasking to squeeze the maximum out of the situation. That is why they are elite. Another reason may be the use of the Ukrainian card in the elections, so that the oligarchs can push their advantageous candidates. Also, the distraction of the own population from internal problems in the country. These reasons can be many. The main one, of course, is profit. Yes, it is profitable for the oligarchs to keep Russia intact and seize it from China, but without Putin. I think everything will come to the point that they will just poison him like Stalin, or kill their financial circles. Putin interferes with doing business. In the West, there is already some kind of Russian "opposition" that is connected with specific oligarchic clans or under the Kremlin clans. They, in turn, will find a way to negotiate with other financial circles of the Kremlin. And at the expense of human lives, no one ever counts them. The coordinate system in which the oligarchy lives, when they realize themselves in life at someone else's expense, does not allow them to look at the situation from the point of view of ordinary mortals, from the point of view of the ordinary plebs. They consider themselves no less than gods, and everyone else is dirt under their nails. Therefore, for them, it is all a game of numbers and zeros on their account. I'm not talking about the fact that these people, who have an incredible amount of resources in their hands, who are practically gods above the law, on whom so much depends, that in this struggle with each other they can get mental disorders from old resentments and failures. A vivid example of this is the person of Elon Musk. He has been taking antidepressants for years and has many old grudges against other oligarchs.
That's right.
Just that you're talking about the Russian oligarchy. Me about the Western.
It’s a damn maneuver war by golly. That’s a melee right there no doubt. Ty for the updates Tom.
Yeah, trying to keep an updated map of this fight is an exercise in futility. I am liking how that southern attack is looking though, nice location to do a lot of damage.
Let's give credit to all our sovereignistic, truth-seeking, christianly conservative parties bankrolled by Putin - they've been claiming for over two years now that Russia absolutely had to launch a preemptive strike, because Ukraine was going to attack. And lo, they are!
lmao!!
This is why I mostly stick with a weekly sampling frame. It's kind of impossible to have any real idea of what's happening below the battalion level because people are literally making the future with their blood sacrifice.
My take so far remains that Ukraine has been conserving its strength in Kursk by not pressing too far in anticipation of exactly this. If Moscow committed to a major punch, but Ukraine has enough reserves available, the orcs just walked into an operational ambush. The road south from Korenovo to Snagost is an awfully thin lifeline to rely on...
Not such bad news today, then!
Some O/T.
Tom, your updates and books on Ukraine are greatly appreciated! However, do you still have time to work on different projects like “Lebanese Cvil War” and “The June 1967 Arab-Israeli War” or we will have to wait for them?
Thanks, I do still have the time for other projects. Lebanese Civil War 4 will be out by the end of the year. Just not sure about 1967 Vol. 2: that's not on me, though.
Otherwise, Ukraine 7 is short of heading into the print; 8, 9, and 10 are under construction and, I hope, are all going to out by the end of the year.
Thanks a lot! That´s a lot of work!
" ZSU then launched an attack over the border into the southern Glushkovsky District - straight into the rear of the 155th NIB."
Good news, I hopwe this continues with success.
Thanks Tom.
I myself am not interested in the units involved - for me these are just numbers.
Anyway, Kursk is getting interesting again.
And how many Obukhovkas in Kursk!?
Thanks for the update. A lot is obviously happening fast. And we should obviously be a little careful in our interpretation.
Hmm, nice time for UA probing all along the border. Get that DMZ established on the RZ side in as many places as possible.
Thanks for the update Tom! Much better news than yesterday. Amazing that we have WWII going on in Kursk, and WWI in Donbas.