I'm getting deja vu with Bakhmut. When there were many different battalions from the TRO there. The main combat brigades were there as fire brigades. I don't need to tell you how it ended.... Perhaps the General Staff is saving the combat brigades for some future counter-offensive..... Although with such interactions between combat units, I doubt it....
It's going to be 2.5 years and ZSU stil not have good interactions and command for corps or divisions.
I don't know uf the russians are better in this aspect, but they are playing with the book and at the end of the day, they are advancing and grinding terrain.
Well, that's foreign land. They went there only to kill more 'Z' troops.
Why do you expect them to hold it to the bitter end?
By their best dynamic units in a (by now) mostly static defense?
I don't know the numbers, but by the description alone in my books it's almost perfect score. Static units retreating, then some dynamic units rushing in to take the attackers by surprise. Good.
The question is at what cost? It's not one-sided. Even the UA reserves that are coming are under constant attacks. Saw at least 3 video of UA tanks destroyed on the border with Kursk region by Lancets and fpvs last days.
More importantly, RU troops are gaining ground (though very slowly) at the principal front - Donbass. My personal imho is that Pokrovsk is the main target. The reason is not only military but also economic. West of Pokrovsk there's the biggest mine of coke coal in Ukraine that meets the needs of UA steel industry. It's working in 3 shifts. Should it be captured, UA economy will face a serious blow.
All in, initially successful UA operation at Kursk is turning into PR useful but attrition dreadful adventure. A rough comparison with Ardennes. Don is happily posting dozens of RU armored vechicles destroyed, while fields of Kursk region are full of destroyed UA armour which was badly needed in Donbass.
Yes, the cost is the question. I hope - I trust they know their math.
Regarding other areas: the sad reality is, that as long as the stream of glide bombs is coming, they just can't put up any solid defenses. Russians send in a meat wave or two, then blast the exposed positions - with troops if they are still there. Then repeat.
At this point there is no cure for that, regardless the amount of tanks or troops sent in those lines.
I admit I can't assess the thoughts of politicians too much. If it was to bargain, then it's indeed an utter failure.
From military viewpoint, I see more sense in the events. I guess they planned to do that 'Wildschweinjagd' all the way in - and out too. What I see in this matches that.
If so, when they'll just repeat it somewhere else when the usefulness here expires (too much effort for not enough dead Russians).
I came to the conclusion that the conquest of some indisputably Russian territory was an anti-Trump protection measure. To put it simply, there is the fear that in the case of Trump election, he will try to pressure the Ukraine into an immediate armistice. An armistice can only be immediate if both armies can cease hostilities remaining in place, 11.11.1918 style, otherwise one has to start with negotiating territory exchange, which is a different kettle of fish altogether. Thus is the most dangerous scenario for the Ukraine possibly prevented, as the Russians will not agree for an in situ armistice.
Are there enough mines?, it seems that there are not enough mines. For example, the bodies of mines for anti-personnel PMD-6 are made in garages, other types of mines are made of plastic on 3D printers. Most likely, this operation is another way to show our Western partners that they should not be afraid of the red lines of the Russians. However, unfortunately, this operation did not affect our zombie idiots (Latest news Zelensky travels around Europe and asks to give him weapons, the war is in its third year... Damn
Theoretically Ukraine should not have any anti-personnel landmines at all as you signed that idiotic landmine ban convention. I hope it is being well and truly ignored at all levels of ZSU. Although even a couple of months ago I talked to some knuckleheads from Western countries who insisted that the Ukraine should fully comply with that cretinous piece of useless moral grandstanding to maintain the „moral high ground”. As if there was any contested moral high ground in this war against serial murderers of civilians and prisoners. Idiots, idiots everywhere.
Можливо ТРО використовують як наживку, або - аби кимсь закрити дірку, а добре озброєних і навчених бережуть, я розумію що це звучить цинічно і не гуманно:- але, не можеш перемогти чесно, переможи як можеш(((
Too nice to be true. Not a smallest evidence for it. If you were right, we would enjoy 100s of ru PoWed and 200/300 in that area. Instead of that we see slow but steady ru grinding through ZSU positions
Thank you for the update. A comment on sources. Of course you use Russian sources. You have explained that before, and also outline how they can be analyser andused to understand what is going on. Go on. I assume the analysis you did is reasonably correct. And regarding Syrsky I think it is clearly correct.
Those TROs were created back months before the invasion. They are already past their initial mission. Yet, the troops have been around since 2-3 years, so they have at least enough experience as the other “regular” ZSU formations IMHO
These units are a weak point for the Ukrainian Army. They receive little equipment and few experienced officers. Until now they were used in quiet sectors and were never în the news for anything.
They are now sent to hot sectors and can not hold major Russian pushes.
On top of that ZSU had lost couple positions in Zaporizhzhia region. Scounts and intel have reported “massive enemy troops concentration” about 2-2,5 weeks ago, but GSU geniously had fcked up another assault
Sirski can certainly do many things if he is lead correctly. He could fight a retreat and exhaust the Russians if ordered in clear words. I think that his instinct is for bloody pounding on any occasion. Zelenski also refuses to give any yard of land and is happy with him.
How can one avoid micromanaging if your army lacks corps and divisions? . . . and brigades that are not picked apart through re-assignment of battalions elsewhere in an uncoordinated fashion? Gawd, this is so depressing. The next thing you will tell me is that there is a forthcoming U.S. election wherein the choice for President is between the not-all-that-good and the absolutely horrible & dangerous. Sooooo depressing . . . .
He is the one putting brigades apart. So, he sets the precondition that micromanagement is necessary. Furthermore, he can create corps and divisions. Did he make any step into that direction?
I don't get the reference to the US election, sry.
The Presidential Election: Kamala Harris (Dems)--better than nothing. IMHO, not an impressive candidate at all. At least she won't threaten the viability of the U.S. Constitution.
Donald Trump (Reps)--inveterate liar, toxic narcissist, unable to look out of himself and appreciate the affect of his words and actions on the well-being of others. Threatened the stability of the U.S. Constitution when it came to the last election through his inveterate lying about "Stop the STEAL!" Complicity in the Capitol Hill riot/insurrection of Jan 6, 2021. A sociopath perhaps. A f***ing moron [a hat tip to Rex Tillerson]. Unfit for the Presidency. I could go on and on about him, but why bother?
I'm getting deja vu with Bakhmut. When there were many different battalions from the TRO there. The main combat brigades were there as fire brigades. I don't need to tell you how it ended.... Perhaps the General Staff is saving the combat brigades for some future counter-offensive..... Although with such interactions between combat units, I doubt it....
It has now all the chances to become worse then that.
Thanks Tom, Kursk looks like a mess this days.
It's going to be 2.5 years and ZSU stil not have good interactions and command for corps or divisions.
I don't know uf the russians are better in this aspect, but they are playing with the book and at the end of the day, they are advancing and grinding terrain.
ZSU top commandment is as bad as russians or even more incompetent. There are still no divisions/armies in ZSU: bigade and corpses are uneffective.
should be corps, not corpses
Ironically, corpses is the outcome of such command.
Sorry, bad english.
Sorry, Tom, but...
Well, that's foreign land. They went there only to kill more 'Z' troops.
Why do you expect them to hold it to the bitter end?
By their best dynamic units in a (by now) mostly static defense?
I don't know the numbers, but by the description alone in my books it's almost perfect score. Static units retreating, then some dynamic units rushing in to take the attackers by surprise. Good.
Was it 1300 or so yesterday? Good.
"They went there only to kill more 'Z' troops."
The question is at what cost? It's not one-sided. Even the UA reserves that are coming are under constant attacks. Saw at least 3 video of UA tanks destroyed on the border with Kursk region by Lancets and fpvs last days.
More importantly, RU troops are gaining ground (though very slowly) at the principal front - Donbass. My personal imho is that Pokrovsk is the main target. The reason is not only military but also economic. West of Pokrovsk there's the biggest mine of coke coal in Ukraine that meets the needs of UA steel industry. It's working in 3 shifts. Should it be captured, UA economy will face a serious blow.
All in, initially successful UA operation at Kursk is turning into PR useful but attrition dreadful adventure. A rough comparison with Ardennes. Don is happily posting dozens of RU armored vechicles destroyed, while fields of Kursk region are full of destroyed UA armour which was badly needed in Donbass.
Yes, the cost is the question. I hope - I trust they know their math.
Regarding other areas: the sad reality is, that as long as the stream of glide bombs is coming, they just can't put up any solid defenses. Russians send in a meat wave or two, then blast the exposed positions - with troops if they are still there. Then repeat.
At this point there is no cure for that, regardless the amount of tanks or troops sent in those lines.
I don’t see any relation to the battle of the bulge (Ardennes).
In the meaning that too much resources were spent.
If it was just a Wildschweinjagd, they've overstayed it by a wide margin. Should've heavily mined everything and withdrawn already in September.
However, gauging by what one gets to hear from Zelensky, it wasn't. It was a show operation, and also an attempt to grab some land as a bargain.
....which is why now it's going to become a failure.
I admit I can't assess the thoughts of politicians too much. If it was to bargain, then it's indeed an utter failure.
From military viewpoint, I see more sense in the events. I guess they planned to do that 'Wildschweinjagd' all the way in - and out too. What I see in this matches that.
If so, when they'll just repeat it somewhere else when the usefulness here expires (too much effort for not enough dead Russians).
I came to the conclusion that the conquest of some indisputably Russian territory was an anti-Trump protection measure. To put it simply, there is the fear that in the case of Trump election, he will try to pressure the Ukraine into an immediate armistice. An armistice can only be immediate if both armies can cease hostilities remaining in place, 11.11.1918 style, otherwise one has to start with negotiating territory exchange, which is a different kettle of fish altogether. Thus is the most dangerous scenario for the Ukraine possibly prevented, as the Russians will not agree for an in situ armistice.
Are there enough mines?, it seems that there are not enough mines. For example, the bodies of mines for anti-personnel PMD-6 are made in garages, other types of mines are made of plastic on 3D printers. Most likely, this operation is another way to show our Western partners that they should not be afraid of the red lines of the Russians. However, unfortunately, this operation did not affect our zombie idiots (Latest news Zelensky travels around Europe and asks to give him weapons, the war is in its third year... Damn
Theoretically Ukraine should not have any anti-personnel landmines at all as you signed that idiotic landmine ban convention. I hope it is being well and truly ignored at all levels of ZSU. Although even a couple of months ago I talked to some knuckleheads from Western countries who insisted that the Ukraine should fully comply with that cretinous piece of useless moral grandstanding to maintain the „moral high ground”. As if there was any contested moral high ground in this war against serial murderers of civilians and prisoners. Idiots, idiots everywhere.
We call these mines training mines))). They teach these mines to the Russians so that they don't climb where they shouldn't.
Можливо ТРО використовують як наживку, або - аби кимсь закрити дірку, а добре озброєних і навчених бережуть, я розумію що це звучить цинічно і не гуманно:- але, не можеш перемогти чесно, переможи як можеш(((
Too nice to be true. Not a smallest evidence for it. If you were right, we would enjoy 100s of ru PoWed and 200/300 in that area. Instead of that we see slow but steady ru grinding through ZSU positions
Thank you for the update. A comment on sources. Of course you use Russian sources. You have explained that before, and also outline how they can be analyser andused to understand what is going on. Go on. I assume the analysis you did is reasonably correct. And regarding Syrsky I think it is clearly correct.
Thanks Tom.
Those TROs were created back months before the invasion. They are already past their initial mission. Yet, the troops have been around since 2-3 years, so they have at least enough experience as the other “regular” ZSU formations IMHO
These units are a weak point for the Ukrainian Army. They receive little equipment and few experienced officers. Until now they were used in quiet sectors and were never în the news for anything.
They are now sent to hot sectors and can not hold major Russian pushes.
On top of that ZSU had lost couple positions in Zaporizhzhia region. Scounts and intel have reported “massive enemy troops concentration” about 2-2,5 weeks ago, but GSU geniously had fcked up another assault
Real depressive period at frontlines. Maybe in such way Ze team is preparing “peace plan realuzation”, idk
And unfortunately the drone operators that entered the battle were not only captured but executed afterwards.
Exactly like in the Pokrovsk sector, lately: almost anybody who surrendered was executed... dozens of troops are 'missing'...
Seems like these war crimes are systematic terror to make people in UA reluctant to join the army.
Sirski can certainly do many things if he is lead correctly. He could fight a retreat and exhaust the Russians if ordered in clear words. I think that his instinct is for bloody pounding on any occasion. Zelenski also refuses to give any yard of land and is happy with him.
If you are micromanaging on that level of command, you have either not chosen the right people under you or you should work on your trust issues.
I think it's rejection of what people tell him: "I'll show how it's done"x10 and here we are.
Or working on your self-esteem issues...
How can one avoid micromanaging if your army lacks corps and divisions? . . . and brigades that are not picked apart through re-assignment of battalions elsewhere in an uncoordinated fashion? Gawd, this is so depressing. The next thing you will tell me is that there is a forthcoming U.S. election wherein the choice for President is between the not-all-that-good and the absolutely horrible & dangerous. Sooooo depressing . . . .
He is the one putting brigades apart. So, he sets the precondition that micromanagement is necessary. Furthermore, he can create corps and divisions. Did he make any step into that direction?
I don't get the reference to the US election, sry.
The Presidential Election: Kamala Harris (Dems)--better than nothing. IMHO, not an impressive candidate at all. At least she won't threaten the viability of the U.S. Constitution.
Donald Trump (Reps)--inveterate liar, toxic narcissist, unable to look out of himself and appreciate the affect of his words and actions on the well-being of others. Threatened the stability of the U.S. Constitution when it came to the last election through his inveterate lying about "Stop the STEAL!" Complicity in the Capitol Hill riot/insurrection of Jan 6, 2021. A sociopath perhaps. A f***ing moron [a hat tip to Rex Tillerson]. Unfit for the Presidency. I could go on and on about him, but why bother?
I do understand, that the choices in the US election are, to put it mildly, frustrating and won't argue against it.
The link to micromanaging Syrski is what I don't get.
I keep ringing the bell.....why won't the bus stop??????