I am a bit confused, IDF is not cuddling orcs in Gaza? Maybe that's the core of the problem, that they think they are cuddling orcs, but in fact, they are committing the genocide. What's a difference between cuddling orcs and committing a genocide? And how big this difference is, is a man able to recognize it?
- 'cuddling orcs' is related to killing servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, while
- mass-murdering dozens of thousands of Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, mass-murdering dozens, if not hundreds of own citizens, bombing out all the local hospitals, torturing UNRWA workers, bombing food- and water-distribution places in what one has first declared for 'safe areas' etc... and meanwhile leveling all of Gaza with the ground, is a genocide.
But then, of course, I understand - perfectly, indeed - that it's impossible that Israel is running a genocide on anybody. Not Israel. The country could never do that. And Palestinians are all Muslims, and one can't run a genocide on Muslims, anyway...
At least I can be sure I can count on you - or somebody else here - coming here to explain me the mistake in the way I think.
....because nothing else matters but that Israel is 'not, not, and not' conducting a genocide on Palestinians... 🙄
I bet some IDF soldiers (and Israelis politicians) think they are cuddling orcs. (Same for Hamas, I bet they also think they were cuddling orcs in On 7 October 2023).
Maybe the peace in that place would be more feasible, is both parties would stop thinking about "orcs" and start thinking about humans.
Wouldn't it be marvelous if Israelis and Palestinians stop killing each others and go kill Russians together instead? Sounds like a killing two birds with one stone.
I don't think that "killing each others" applies when you have 30 times more killed on one side than the other... It's a massacre or even a genocide. Not a war.
Massacre is OK. To have a genocide you have to demonstrate that is planned and the will to exterminate an entire population. Extreme vengeance for 7 October assault is enough to explain what is happening in Gaza and I agree with you that it is happening a massacre and not a war.
So, all the top Israeli politicians publicly announcing eradication of Gaza - including mass-murder of babies - is 'no intention', and that because you've missed all of their statements (some 20+ in total)...?
Alas, and unfortunately, Tom, you are completely and completely right - it seems that strategic decisions in Ukraine are not made by Ukrainian generals, but by someone from abroad - those who do not care about the people of Ukraine because they are at war with russia , and Ukraine for them is just a testing ground...
That might be the case. Just... ah, kill me: can't help it but wonder about the fact that those in charge in Ukraine - people, supposedly, having no bigger concerns but saving Ukrainian lives - are wasting Ukrainian lives, time, and money, to go fighting other people's wars, or with PR-stunts for the social media and Russian elections, instead of saving Ukrainian lives.
So I hope that the next “noise” in the Belgorod and Kursk regions is really part of a plan to destroy the enemy’s fighting force, and not a beautiful picture for propaganda in the West that there is supposedly an opposition in russia. Allegedly, because in reality the majority in russia supports putin and there is literally no real opposition there at all.
Third option: it's a convenient way to poke the enemy in an otherwise quiet sector with forces that can claim to be insurgents to avoid the diplomatic issues associated with Ukrainian forces invading russia.
Now Putin has to sacrifice forces to demonstrate control, probably killing a bunch of civilians in the process, or admit he can't protect his own borders. A war-winner? No. But a nice little op that pokes the bear's pain point. Note how Putin is yammering about nukes again? And every time he does, he looks more like Kim Jong Un.
Unfortunately Biden, Scholz, et al are Putin's most useful tools.
I think that is an important point. Russia is used to its big size being an assett. But now it actually is a drawback. Because there are so many points that needs defense. And if you dont defend it you risk it being hurt. You cannot ignore the attacks completly. So you need some air defense here, there and everywhere. And you dont have it.
Seems SBU is, like some air forces tend to do, running it's own war which, much like HUR shenanigans with sending White Rex and the gang into Kursk and Belgorod, isn't tied into an overall strategy for prosecuting, and hopefully winning the war.
So, they finally got their long-range UAVs in some numbers and are using them as they see fit without much wider consideration if a campaign against Russian refineries is what's needed at this stage of the war, or are there more pressing targets, like those neat rows of bombers at airfields you mention.
Your discussion about whether someone from abroad is running this campaign got me thinking a bit, in light of some recent developments, about why it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if someone competent is put in charge.
Let's look at a more successful SBU (and HUR) campaign with naval drones in the Black Sea. Footage of those first drone attacks on Sevastopol was spectacular no doubt, but the results of those and subsequent attacks were disappointing. So much so a lot of the watchers were convinced there was just nothing to be done until they figured out how to put at least a mini torpedo on those drones.
Then suddenly, really it's a pretty short timeframe when you look at the overall campaign, those drones were becoming so effective, so fast, and carried a large enough warhead that they not only knocked out a span of the Kerch bridge but forced the Black Sea fleet to rebase their Kalibre shooters all the way South to Novorossiysk. And as we can see those drones, now routinely used in wolfpacks, continue sinking individual Black Sea Fleet's ships.
But how did that come to pass? And isn't it bizarre that those drone programs are under SBU and HUR, and not the Navy, as would be usual in other countries?
Sure, there are competent people in the Ukrainian Navy, and the core was not so diluted in expansion or killed off during the war as was, sadly, the case with the ground forces. Sure, there are competent Ukrainian small boat builders. A huge part of success is on them, no doubt.
But why were Ukrainian intelligence services so adamant they control the naval drone program so much so the whole design and procurement process is in their own hands? Well, could be because some Western helpers didn't want to put their prototypes in the wrong hands?
"The Navy has been quietly experimenting in the Pacific with a lethal drone concept called “hellscape” that would disrupt an amphibious invasion of Taiwan with a combination of loitering munitions and lethal attack drones.
The lethal and autonomous mass would throw off a synchronized invasion, sow confusion and chaos in the strait and buy time for the U.S. and Taiwan to bring more forces, USNI News reported last year.
The program was inspired in part by the low-cost lethal surface drones developed by Ukraine and built with off-the-shelf components, USNI News understands."
For me, it kind of ties into the neurotic way U.S. and Western help was coming to Ukraine since the start of the war. A lot of it is due to the way the U.S. admin is crippled with the old clueless Obama admin officials, but also acting in the old-school ways of big power competition, as if they have people on the Russian side that are capable of reading and acting on such nuances, and not morons and retards, so they get tied up in imaginary red lines.
So, ballistic or other long-range missiles, even if it's just "expired" ATACMS with 300 km range? Out of the question! But what if someone said they've got this small drone project they could test in Ukraine? Sure, for the boomer president and his advisors that could be let to pass.
And so in all their wisdom they end up with Sea Babies and Maguras that are sinking Black Sea Fleet ships in the sea domain, and now ex-Google's Eric Schmidt working with Ukrainian companies on autonomous AI killer flying robots in the air domain. But God forbid they got those SRBMs or ALCMs they asked for! Everything to keep the admin happy with non-escalation nonsense.
And returning to the question of foreign-run campaigns, on the Black Sea front you have the crucial role Storm Shadows/SCALP EG played in debasing the BSF from Sevastopol. From recent Taurus leaks, we know that both the British and French have people programming the missiles in Ukraine. Brits recently announced that Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Tony Radakin is to remain in post for an extra year to retain continuity as the Ukraine war continues.
Crazy what a competent planner with the help of NATO AWACS, skilled Ukrainian pilots and drone operators, a couple of old SU-24s and some Storm Shadows, Sea Babies and Maguras can accomplish, right?
In the SBU's drone air campaign, we see that all the drones on H.I Sutton's graphic are indigenous Ukrainian designs. Will it remain so? Not necessarily. Look at this quote from US Assistant Secretary of Defense Celest Wallander that the "US has provided Ukraine with long-range strike capabilities in the form of UAVs and GLSDB." She also suggests that Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea with them. (https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1756020408782913781?s=20)
Which UAVs are those? They haven't been disclosed yet, but if those trinkets of info about the Western help with naval drones are suggesting what I tried to deduce here, there's a reason to think that a similar help will materialise for long-range UAVs. So is there someone from outside running the SBU air campaign on Russia? I would say no, or not yet. Wait for new designs to come up, could be in that domain we're still in the phase of those first Ukrainian naval drones striking Sevastopol. Hopefully, someone as competent as in the Black Sea area of operations will be running those ops in time. And fingers crossed they raid some airfields but also don't end up like Iraqis taking 8 years to finally strike the right targets in Iran's refineries.
Allow me to argue with you about "biggest concern for Ukrainians is life of their soldiers".
No, Ukraine is not fighting for life of its soldiers.
Its an existantial war between russia and Ukraine over the territory of Ukraine.
Russia wants to exchaust Ukraine, but it exchausing itself as well. Ukrainian goal is to exchaust Russia to the level they stop the war.
It might be physical impossibility ( when all russian tanks are destroyed or no oil ) or revolution in moscow - both are fine.
Hitting oil has a strategic exchaustment on russia as well as media effect: possibility to stop the war, more russians will see the damage, russian tanks will have no oil, no money for the budget
I'm in agreement with you and your theory; if Russia is paying for this war via oil sales, then why wouldn't you hit said infrastructure as often and as hard as possible. A further bonus is it pulls Russia's ADA assets away from the war zone.
It just seems to me a very realistic and and actually useful strategy.
Its also laverage on USA, which is already troubled about how its gonna influence prcies - give us weapons with which we can hit better targets, or dont talk into our strategy. Also Ukraine probably fighting the grain war. Russia needed to stop oil exports to harvest grain last year. Guess that this year it only gets worse. But its better to asume, that the commanders are just stupid...
Doesn't matter good or bad this exact decisions, you totally wrong in one key thing. Military or politicians or any structure in Ukraine perfectly capable to fail in any possible way, without any interference from abroad. So no need to create complex , near conspiracy theories to explain what is 99% chance to be local incompetency, internal power struggle or else
Or maybe the Occam's Razor explanation to the quandary implied in the article, about why the Ukrainians are striking POL infrastructure instead of airbases ("tail rather than teeth") is that Russian airbases are actually quite well defended.
Having said that, can I imagine the SBU acting with a view to a post-war role as "NATO's Wagner?" Yes, absolutely. I'm sure that after 2 years of this unprecedented peer-warfare they can kick every mercenary in the Pentagon's arse very very hard, and, much more importantly, with vastly better plausible deniability.
1. Activities in Africa & targeting POL are aimed at reducing Russia's long-term financial capacity to wage war. These are long-term strategic activities that have been underway for some time, and Ukraine is a big enough country to continue these activities at the same time as fighting on home soil. I agree that now is a good time to focus some of these capabilities on protecting troops from the growing air threat, but the UAF has its role and the SBU has theirs, and such a change in focus across organisational boundaries takes time.
2. I fully expect that the Ukrainians perceive political value in "bringing the war home to Russia" during the election period, another reason why I expect the POL attacks to continue. The timing of this week's incursions by Russian rebels is, I'm sure, related to this too.
Just, that itch in my small toe... must be something chronical, obviously... or... lets say, I'm asking for a friend. Really, nothing else. Asking for a friend:
- if the Russian UMPKs are killing - on average - some 20 ZSU troops a day, and wounding another 50...
....how many ZSU troops are going to be KIA/200 or WIA/300 by the time of Russian elections?
Not known is not the same as not existing. Drone shot down over forest during attempted attack on airbase is hardly news these days. Big fire on rafinery - different story.
I think it likely the airbases are much better protected than more numerous POL facilities. So there is every possibility attacks on the air bases have been run without success
3. Could it be that air bases are not targeted, because they are few and well protected from UAV attacks? At the same time, there are around 30 of oil refinery plants and they are less protected (some even less then the others).
I suspect that air bases are much better protected, indeed, so hitting oil and transportation infrastructure is much easier. You cannot protect every pipeline and bridge
Thanks Tom. I have no clue as to why the SBU are even sipping tea in Sudan, let alone fighting Wagner. The only, even remotely, rational reason I can think of is disrupting gold shipments to Russia.
However, I disagree with your assessment of the bombing campaign of Russian refineries. As you stated yourself, these long range drones are completely inadequate for conducting any shaping operations. Also, they do seem to target air bases, e.g. Taganrog, but they clearly have trouble catching VKS planes on the tarmac.
On the other hand, shutting down refineries is one more critical step to bringing this war to an end. This war will not end like WW2. It will end like WW1. Russia has already had to ban fuel exports (refined products, not crude oil) for 6 months. This is money, a lot of money, and most importantly, cash, in useful currencies, something they are desperate for. There are also pleasant side effects, e.g. the Lukoil Nizhny Novgorod refinery had a pipeline to Moscow. Now the fuel will have to be brought in by road or rail, putting significant pressure on the logistics. Also, it is important to hit refineries, rather than crude oil facilities, as this does not affect oil prices. In addition, it is possible that if the campaign continues, with as much success, then Russia will have to start importing fuel. Money, money, money.
Google says 6 month of refined oil products is 18 bln usd for russia.
Here is how its calculated.
Amount of refined oil export in 2021 - 146 mln ton.
1 ton is about 7.5 barrels. 1 crude barrel costs 70 usd, so 1 ton is about 500 usd.
146 mln ton is 36 bln usd. But thats crude oil. I dont know the price of "refined product" if its 2 or 3 times more then crude then its not 18 bln but 2, 3, 4 times more
Unfortunately, it is much more complicated and much of the data is not publically available. There are many taxes on oil products. The ban is for petrol and diesel, not all refined products, albeit these cover probably most of the value. Also, the exports to countries of the Eurasian Economic Union are still allowed. Of what is exported, I haven't found any data on the actual prices Russian companies sell them for and what the associated costs are, so have no idea about the profit. However, it certainly is a significant hit and most importantly, less hard currency to spend on imports.
I would tend to agree that this is going to end like WWI, and I would add that I hope it includes a change of government in the aggressor nation like WWI did.
Be careful what you wish for, the Bolsheviks replaced the Tsar, Hitler replaced the Kaiser (with the failed Weimar republic in between). Better the devil you know.
Maybe I am a little bit optimistic today and... what if Ukrainian are not Russian air bases because nowadays all that are in range of UAVs are protected enough and thus the rate of success of such attack is really low? At the same time the Russians can not protect also the POL sites that are a relatively easy target, as we saw in the last months.
I'm most probably wrong, I have no qualification to say, but I like to think that UAF are trying to push russians to redeploy their air defence systems closer to the oil refineries so it's easier to target military targets, but that's wishful thinking on my side.
P.S. Thanks for another piece of information that motivates me to look at things from a different angle.
Not only that. Refineries are an easier target, their damage has long lasting economic impact and are also very visible world wide. So while Tom (obviously!) has a point, these attacks make sense to me too.
I tend to think the aim of such strikes to lure out the orc jammers and AA from their airfields and the Frontline. As they cannot protect everything and we already tried their airfields. They are relatively good protected, at least for now. Oil is money for Russia and one of the primary means to feed this war. Let them try to protect that as well. Especially before the elections
Nah, you are too much focused on the military part of the war, while completely ignoring maybe even more important part of the war, than military - economics. russia do have almost unlimited amount of money, considering that western sanctions doing close to zero damage to russian economics and all this "western hell sanctions" is just a fart in the winds.
Just for comparison, russian military budget for 2024 is around 140-150 billion dollars, while ukrainian military budget for 2024, even if we add US 60$ billions that isn't voted yet, Ukraine still will have less than 100$ billions for 2024. If we compare everything else, like mobilisation potential, military production, weapons in warehouse and blablablablabla, Ukraine is losing in long run in all means, because russia have more of everything, while the West is still very busy with "unprecedentedly and decisively" wanking their dicks, instead of helping Ukraine to win the war asap.
But the funny thing is, that any country in the world can't wage a war on that scale for long time, if their money is limited. Simply because if there is no money, then state can't pay soldiers to continue war. It can't buy all this cool western stuff to produce more weapons. It can't even hold it's economics against very mild and useless western sanctions.
You see what i mean? russian GDP is approximately 30-50% made of from selling oil, gas, gasoline and blablablablabla. Hitting all this stuff in russia, means destroying russia's money. Literally. In insane amounts.
Destroying wagner in Sudan means that russia won't be able to steal gold there, which is another hit on their economics. No stolen gold - no money - war end faster. And it's done by some ±100 soldiers from SBU, it's not a significant number in this war like at all, but effect from their operations in Sudan is very....noticable and obvious.
So considering how hesitant the West in helping Ukraine to win the war, considering shitshow in US and that trump will most likely become the president, and considering that NATO is already shitting in its pants while not even participating in this war, the only real chance for Ukraine to win this war, is to break russian economics, so it become impossible for russia to continue the war. Another chance is some "black swan", but it should be way more significant, than just putin's death. If putin die like now, it will change absolutely nothing. They are fascist by their nature and they will find another fucker who will continue this war like nothing happened at all.
Hitting russian air bases is good decision in short term, but if Ukraine doesn't block russian "money veins" like oil/gas/gasoline trades and trades with stolen gold, in long term russia will find the way to recover all their lost aircrafts, but by that time Ukraine already will be with less resources to repeat that/will be just in worse position in war. Also all this air bases are protected with AA/EW systems even harder, than your girlfriend's father was protecting her panties back in the days when you was a teenager. While at the same time oil infrastructure in russia protected even less, than panties of this school chick that was hanging out with school football team back in the days when you was a teenager. So it's not big surprise that Ukraine is hitting russian oil infrastructure, instead of air bases.
But on more serious note, it's very interesting that even western military experts sometimes have some lack of context in this war, because of simply doesn't knowing language. I mean, all what I'm saying now, was revealed in ukrainian media like billion times, as well as by ukrainian military experts/officials/randoms/whoever. I think like everyone in Ukraine knows why Ukraine hits russian oil infrastructure and SBU doing hell party for wagner in Sudan.
In principle, I basically agree, but I disagree on the point that the sanctions hardly hurt Russia. It hurts a lot, and the oil industry is one of the points where it can meet beautifully - thanks to the sanctions, the Russians will not be able to repair the damage sufficiently. They will lack sanctioned technology, they will lack money. From the engine of the economy, oil is slowly turning into a burden.
Their oil trades now are bigger than ever, even bigger than pre-war lmao. They simply transport it via their shadow fleet to some neutral ports, pump oil to Chinese/Indian tankers and boom - it's not russian oil anymore, it's Chinese/Indian oil now that get sold to the West or whatever. Same with their gas, that they are transfer to Hungaria and then it sold to Europe as Hungarian gas or whatever. I might be not right on details, but they obviously avoid sanctions. And the thing is, until all trades with russia will be prohibited and until russia is claimed as terrorist state, they will find a way to avoid sanctions, which means they will still have unlimited money to wage a war.
Also shit tons of sanctions are just personal sanctions, like blocking bank accounts or some russian oligarchs, which means this sanctions are just nominal and useless, because it hits only some russian oligarchs, not russia as a state. Who cares if some bank account in western bank of some russian oligarch is blocked? He didn't kept his money in russia anyway, so there is no point in such sanctions at all.
Don't fool yourself with all this "hell sanctions". If it was true, russia would end this war a long time ago, due to destroyed economy. Nobody gives a single fuck in Ukraine if in 10-20-50 years russia won't be able to produce some shit, because right now russia is still able to outproduce whole fucking west artillery shells production in 3 fucking times. The whole fucking west that holds 45% of world's economy looks like a rookie in artillery shells production against russia which holds 1-3% of world's economy. Thats just ridiculous and actually a great example of how "useful" sanctions is.
This comment has lot of misconceptions, but sadly the braindead mainstream media is only reinforcing them so Im not suprised anymore.
First, about the shells - I know CNN talked about this, but they confuse all shells vs the main (152/155s ones). Russia outproduces the West 3x if you count all their produced calibres vs Western 155s - the difference is much more subdued if you count either all calibres or only 152 vs 155 (for the last the figure 1,5m vs 1,2m as of now). Still bad, but not *as* bad.
Second, regarding oil and gas - I dont think any gas reselling exists since the only operational pipeline, TurkStream is at max capacity and its just enough to supply Serbia, Hungary and some % of Austria's needs. Russian LNG does gets sold since *no sanctions exist on gas* (I can't believe how many people are not aware of this) but its volume far, far less than what they used to send through pipelines.
Russia also isn't selling more fossil fuels than prew-war , thats completely bogus, see https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/ for numbers. The Indian oil reselling story is also vastly overblown. Indian crude oil export *doesn't* exists. India does export refined petroleum products, and some of it ends up in the EU. Yes, but the EU also imports crude for its own refineries, meaning we dont really need all that much refined products. The main exception is diesel due to European favoritism of such engines, where there's a 10% gap between EU refinery output and consumption, which was traditionally covered by Russia. India did partially step in and right now Indian diesel supplies 3-4% of European consumption - so it's not completely irrevelant but also hardly the earth shaking story some news pieces sold it as. Its only impressive in terms of relative growth since it grew from basically nothing to couple hundred thousands of barrels a day - but the EU consumes 10 million barrels of diesel a day...
All what you said have sense if we were talking about how much EU is buying oil/gas from russia.
And it's completely doesn't have sense if we are talking about for how long russia can finance the war. Link that you posted is perfectly shows that regardless how much oil/gas/coal russia sells to the West, in still doing insane profit on it. Like i said, russian military budget for 2024 is ±140-150 billion dollars. For 2 years of war, russia made 619 billions euros selling their resources globally and 188 billion euros selling it only to EU. Thats enough to finance the war for over 4 years more.
For comparison only on global oil selling in 2021, russia has earned 110 billion euros. For two years of war, russia globally earned 429 billion euros only on oil, or 215 billion euros per year, which is in two times more profit than russia made in 2021.
I don't give a single fuck for how much fossil fuels russia sells per year in tonns. But i do give a fuck about how much money russia earn on it. And it's clear for everyone that sanctions work "so well", so now russia's profits in few times higher than pre-war, even considering there is a sanctions that limiting price of russian oil. And it's only "official stats", which doesn't include statistic of how much russian fossil fuels were sold by avoiding sanctions and using their shadow fleet. It's definitely in few times higher than "official stat" shows.
Exactly. And on the other side, the export of Western high-tech restricted goods to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Armenia and so on have increased like 1000 times or so. It's not hard to guess where is everything going. Everyone knows it, but not selling means the Western economies will get hurt. Nobody wants that. Recession in the West means no funding for Ukraine anyway. It's a vicious circle. IMHO, sanctions are working, but very slowly, as you said, and Ukraine doesn't have the time. It's not the cold War; people are dying every day :(
The export tracker shows payments, not profit, from which you have to deduct shipping and operational costs like maintanance, ammortisation and salaries (and taxes but in case of state owned companies its hardly relevant here). So I'd be cautious to assume all those hundreds of billions appeared in Russian state treasury - they couldn't, the operation isn't running for free. If you look at Russian finance mod statements regarding oil&gas revenues, for 2021, they reported an income of 9,1trn RUB, for 2022 11,6trn, for 2023 8,82trn (i refer to rubel values since in $/€ these vary due to exchange rate fluctuations). As such, its obvious that it is very much possible to eat into Russian finances with well targeted sanctions (8,8trn rub is aprx $99billion), consider the recent round of secondary ones targeting banks that caused considerable backup of Russian oil cargo ships, this is the kind of mechanisms the West must apply more of:
And keep in mind 2022 was an exceptionally good year for all fossil exporters due to high market prices, and the EU oil sanction only came into effect in December, refined product sanction months late.
So sorry, but no way in hell Russia is earning multiple times the money it did pre-war. It earnt perhaps 20-30% more in 2022 aided by high global prices, only for the figure to drop to lowest level in years for '23, see:
I agree with your evaluation. Attacking Russian oil industry will decrease their possibility to easily ship oil and gas to their current contracts (like Austria). To avoid breaking the terms of the contract they will have to divert oil from their business and war efforts, creating shortage for the internal market and gas prices going higher for russians. Thus, is also creates internal tension and potential for civil unrest.
You have some valid points but maybe this statement doesnt help the discourse"than your girlfriend's father was protecting her panties back in the days when you was a teenager. "
"Destroying wagner in Sudan means that russia won't be able to steal gold there, which is another hit on their economics. No stolen gold - no money - war end faster. And it's done by some ±100 soldiers from SBU, it's not a significant number in this war like at all, but effect from their operations in Sudan is very....noticable and obvious."
It's also possible demonstrating their special ops value to the US (or, perish the thought, Israel) could shore up utterly crucial Congressional support for funding the war. We know America fucks over its allies (Kurdistan?), but America has also tended to like allies who fight for it on the side like Roman auxilliaries or Nazi "HiWis". Cf. all the Visegrad group countries doing fealty to Dubya in Afghanistan...
I doubt that, because US specops is still kinda mad at ukrainian specops after its successful evacuation operation in Afghanistan, when ukrainians evacuated US allies and staff. On the one hand it's good thing, on the other hand it pictured US specops as fucking clowns. I mean like come on, it's US and it shit its own pants big time by leaving it's own people behind, hesitating to do some small urban fights against some bearded religious dudes in flip-flops, armed with ak47.
I bet some high ranks in US are lost their stars after Afghanistan, as well as keep loosing it looking at SBU success in Sudan.
Someone needs to write a potted history of Ukrainians in the PMC industry since 1991, especially with reference to the Ukranian "geostrategy" if one can speak of such. I'm sure it would be thrilling and horrifying in equal measure.
Do we know the targets of drones that are shot down every night by Russian air defenses? What if it is the case that for the Russians those airports with beautifully arranged planes are a priority and Ukraine cannot therefore hit them, while the Russians simply cannot protect all the refineries? And that's why we see refineries hit (which is a good strategic goal in the long run) but we don't see airports hit? Just a thought...
What if VKS just gets it Su-34 up in the air in case of air alert, just like UAF did in the first days of the war? It's a bit more difficult to move POL out of the UAVs' way.
This is not an FVP drone. It doesn't have precise guidance. And oil industry facilities begin to burn themselves. From the slightest leakage of light fractions. I ASSUME that this is the basis of the strategy.
I think you underestimate their precision. Just check the video of second drone hitting exactly same column at oil refinery in Ryazan like previous one. And size this column is not really big. So as for now they look quite precise to hit same object few times over 800 km distance.
In order to hit multiple airplanes and helicopters in a base, you need cluster munitions. Using unitary munitions means that you have to use a large number of drones trying to hit multiple airplanes.
Instead, a single hit on an oil fuel tank has the possibility of huge damage in a large area, as these fires are self sustained and can cause secondary problems
"However, it – obviously – has the means to strike Russian air bases." Why do you think so? my understanding that it's virtually impossible to damage any of them with the means UA has. Currently it takes a lot of intel to route the painfully slow UAVs to avoid the russian air defense and yet 90% of them intercepted. Going for the airbases will just make it 100%.
Had Ukraine had SCAD or some other ballistic means (let's say from Pakistan, maybe) that would have been a different story.
Ukraine was striking Russian air bases - like Millerovo - already back on 25 February 2022.
It has hit Taganrog AB, few days ago, too.
Perhaps yes, 50%+ of deployed drones were shot down over Taganrog, but those that did get through have caused damage.
....and the experience form this war is clear: if one kills enough Russians, then they stop assaulting.
So, why should that be 'impossible' or 'too complex' to strike Russian air bases? Destroying the enemy air power on the ground, before it can take off, is something like 1x1 of air warfare at least since 1918...
But the density of the air defense in russia is way to high. there's more chance in sending a strong message by striking oil depots.
BTW, list night (Wednesday, March 13), the SBU, together with other branches of the Defense Forces, attacked with drones the air base of the Russian Air Force in Buturlinivka and the military airfield in Voronezh. Not sure if there was any result, though.
I'm a bit frustrated with the apparent strategic authonomy of the SBU too, yet it's possible they don't strike on RU airbases not because they think it's not important but because the drones they have aren't capable to breakthrough. Airbases are obviously one of the most GBAD- and EW-cowered places, and the strike drones UA has in any kind of numbers are just slightly modified agricultural and surveyour ones, not very capable of avoiding SHORAD or weathering EW. That's why, I think, they are still hitting civilian oil infractructure mostly - that's the thing they can hit hard, while airbases... well, these they can just drop around in numbers only, except of some rare cases like the 1st A-50 hit in Bielorussia (possibly because of it was in Bielorussia indeed and so the local airbase had no proper GBAD and EW coverage).
I actually think there's a lot of sense in this targeting.
In Iraq's example - yes, there would be no point in hitting Iraq industry because Iraq had no time or opportunity to convert oil to military equipment. Russia, on the other hand, has a clear way to do so, and the time to execute it:
1. Sell oil for money
2. Spend money for non-sanctioned goods or pay on black market for sanctioned goods, including:
- components for refurbishing old USSR equipment
- production of new equipment or ammo
- import of equipment
3. Provide military equipment to the troops
So the value of the oil destroyed directly translates towards reduction in the value of military equipment Russia can field.
Thanks Tom for good questions. I am amateur and know fast nothing about war.
I have no idea about Sudan, but some points to POL. Drones can destroy weak defend targets and maybe this attacks on POL will push RU to move air defence from airports to POL.. Decreasing russia oil product export for 20% means 200 milions dollars less every week and that means 200 shaheds every week less.
Thanks for the interesting reflection Tom. Regarding the way of waging war in Ukraine, the truth is that it is exhausting to see the number of daily videos showing the death of people due to FPV drones instead of attacking logistics, strategic places, roads, plants, etc. . .
I would wager that Russian air bases are far better protected against drone attacks. It might be that Ukrainians are simply going after what they can. Its better than doing nothing and Russia would have to disperse some of its air defence to defend refineries as well. Maybe this leaves gaps presenting some further options for drones.
But yes the 1500kg glides bombs that Russia is using are far more pressing problem as no defensive line can protect against those.
So far I havent seen no counter for that. Not even something that could theoretically neutralise this threat.
Fully agree here, they are doing the best they can, airbases are heavily protected, and drone attacks are too slow, they will be able to take the planes in air well before the drones arrive. So they attack other targets which are available. Also I think those attacks is the maximum allowed by West, more like the demonstration of abilities which West thinks should scare Putin (plot twist: it will not, and we know it, but West is too afraid to admit this).
Re glide bombs - I am actually not sure even West has the proper answer for those, except air domination with long range AA missiles. I guess there will be some asymmetric response, like GUR killing pilots or such. So, West better provide Ukraine with proper weapons or the things will get very very ugly behind the ru front line.
I am a bit confused, IDF is not cuddling orcs in Gaza? Maybe that's the core of the problem, that they think they are cuddling orcs, but in fact, they are committing the genocide. What's a difference between cuddling orcs and committing a genocide? And how big this difference is, is a man able to recognize it?
Well, it could be that
- 'cuddling orcs' is related to killing servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, while
- mass-murdering dozens of thousands of Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, mass-murdering dozens, if not hundreds of own citizens, bombing out all the local hospitals, torturing UNRWA workers, bombing food- and water-distribution places in what one has first declared for 'safe areas' etc... and meanwhile leveling all of Gaza with the ground, is a genocide.
But then, of course, I understand - perfectly, indeed - that it's impossible that Israel is running a genocide on anybody. Not Israel. The country could never do that. And Palestinians are all Muslims, and one can't run a genocide on Muslims, anyway...
At least I can be sure I can count on you - or somebody else here - coming here to explain me the mistake in the way I think.
....because nothing else matters but that Israel is 'not, not, and not' conducting a genocide on Palestinians... 🙄
I bet some IDF soldiers (and Israelis politicians) think they are cuddling orcs. (Same for Hamas, I bet they also think they were cuddling orcs in On 7 October 2023).
Maybe the peace in that place would be more feasible, is both parties would stop thinking about "orcs" and start thinking about humans.
Wouldn't it be marvelous if Israelis and Palestinians stop killing each others and go kill Russians together instead? Sounds like a killing two birds with one stone.
I don't think that "killing each others" applies when you have 30 times more killed on one side than the other... It's a massacre or even a genocide. Not a war.
Massacre is OK. To have a genocide you have to demonstrate that is planned and the will to exterminate an entire population. Extreme vengeance for 7 October assault is enough to explain what is happening in Gaza and I agree with you that it is happening a massacre and not a war.
So, all the top Israeli politicians publicly announcing eradication of Gaza - including mass-murder of babies - is 'no intention', and that because you've missed all of their statements (some 20+ in total)...?
Enjoy: https://youtu.be/9hRs8-1N9j4?si=c1bmSL3HFOwjUemg
Alas, and unfortunately, Tom, you are completely and completely right - it seems that strategic decisions in Ukraine are not made by Ukrainian generals, but by someone from abroad - those who do not care about the people of Ukraine because they are at war with russia , and Ukraine for them is just a testing ground...
That might be the case. Just... ah, kill me: can't help it but wonder about the fact that those in charge in Ukraine - people, supposedly, having no bigger concerns but saving Ukrainian lives - are wasting Ukrainian lives, time, and money, to go fighting other people's wars, or with PR-stunts for the social media and Russian elections, instead of saving Ukrainian lives.
So I hope that the next “noise” in the Belgorod and Kursk regions is really part of a plan to destroy the enemy’s fighting force, and not a beautiful picture for propaganda in the West that there is supposedly an opposition in russia. Allegedly, because in reality the majority in russia supports putin and there is literally no real opposition there at all.
Third option: it's a convenient way to poke the enemy in an otherwise quiet sector with forces that can claim to be insurgents to avoid the diplomatic issues associated with Ukrainian forces invading russia.
Now Putin has to sacrifice forces to demonstrate control, probably killing a bunch of civilians in the process, or admit he can't protect his own borders. A war-winner? No. But a nice little op that pokes the bear's pain point. Note how Putin is yammering about nukes again? And every time he does, he looks more like Kim Jong Un.
Unfortunately Biden, Scholz, et al are Putin's most useful tools.
I think that is an important point. Russia is used to its big size being an assett. But now it actually is a drawback. Because there are so many points that needs defense. And if you dont defend it you risk it being hurt. You cannot ignore the attacks completly. So you need some air defense here, there and everywhere. And you dont have it.
Seems SBU is, like some air forces tend to do, running it's own war which, much like HUR shenanigans with sending White Rex and the gang into Kursk and Belgorod, isn't tied into an overall strategy for prosecuting, and hopefully winning the war.
So, they finally got their long-range UAVs in some numbers and are using them as they see fit without much wider consideration if a campaign against Russian refineries is what's needed at this stage of the war, or are there more pressing targets, like those neat rows of bombers at airfields you mention.
Your discussion about whether someone from abroad is running this campaign got me thinking a bit, in light of some recent developments, about why it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if someone competent is put in charge.
Let's look at a more successful SBU (and HUR) campaign with naval drones in the Black Sea. Footage of those first drone attacks on Sevastopol was spectacular no doubt, but the results of those and subsequent attacks were disappointing. So much so a lot of the watchers were convinced there was just nothing to be done until they figured out how to put at least a mini torpedo on those drones.
Then suddenly, really it's a pretty short timeframe when you look at the overall campaign, those drones were becoming so effective, so fast, and carried a large enough warhead that they not only knocked out a span of the Kerch bridge but forced the Black Sea fleet to rebase their Kalibre shooters all the way South to Novorossiysk. And as we can see those drones, now routinely used in wolfpacks, continue sinking individual Black Sea Fleet's ships.
But how did that come to pass? And isn't it bizarre that those drone programs are under SBU and HUR, and not the Navy, as would be usual in other countries?
Sure, there are competent people in the Ukrainian Navy, and the core was not so diluted in expansion or killed off during the war as was, sadly, the case with the ground forces. Sure, there are competent Ukrainian small boat builders. A huge part of success is on them, no doubt.
But why were Ukrainian intelligence services so adamant they control the naval drone program so much so the whole design and procurement process is in their own hands? Well, could be because some Western helpers didn't want to put their prototypes in the wrong hands?
Consider this on USNI News: (https://news.usni.org/2024/01/30/pentagon-puts-out-call-for-swarming-attack-drones-that-could-blunt-a-taiwan-invasion)
"The Navy has been quietly experimenting in the Pacific with a lethal drone concept called “hellscape” that would disrupt an amphibious invasion of Taiwan with a combination of loitering munitions and lethal attack drones.
The lethal and autonomous mass would throw off a synchronized invasion, sow confusion and chaos in the strait and buy time for the U.S. and Taiwan to bring more forces, USNI News reported last year.
The program was inspired in part by the low-cost lethal surface drones developed by Ukraine and built with off-the-shelf components, USNI News understands."
For me, it kind of ties into the neurotic way U.S. and Western help was coming to Ukraine since the start of the war. A lot of it is due to the way the U.S. admin is crippled with the old clueless Obama admin officials, but also acting in the old-school ways of big power competition, as if they have people on the Russian side that are capable of reading and acting on such nuances, and not morons and retards, so they get tied up in imaginary red lines.
So, ballistic or other long-range missiles, even if it's just "expired" ATACMS with 300 km range? Out of the question! But what if someone said they've got this small drone project they could test in Ukraine? Sure, for the boomer president and his advisors that could be let to pass.
And so in all their wisdom they end up with Sea Babies and Maguras that are sinking Black Sea Fleet ships in the sea domain, and now ex-Google's Eric Schmidt working with Ukrainian companies on autonomous AI killer flying robots in the air domain. But God forbid they got those SRBMs or ALCMs they asked for! Everything to keep the admin happy with non-escalation nonsense.
And returning to the question of foreign-run campaigns, on the Black Sea front you have the crucial role Storm Shadows/SCALP EG played in debasing the BSF from Sevastopol. From recent Taurus leaks, we know that both the British and French have people programming the missiles in Ukraine. Brits recently announced that Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Tony Radakin is to remain in post for an extra year to retain continuity as the Ukraine war continues.
"Radakin understood to have helped the Ukrainians with the strategy to destroy Russian Black Sea fleet." (https://x.com/NavyLookout/status/1763143328806174895?s=20)
Crazy what a competent planner with the help of NATO AWACS, skilled Ukrainian pilots and drone operators, a couple of old SU-24s and some Storm Shadows, Sea Babies and Maguras can accomplish, right?
In the SBU's drone air campaign, we see that all the drones on H.I Sutton's graphic are indigenous Ukrainian designs. Will it remain so? Not necessarily. Look at this quote from US Assistant Secretary of Defense Celest Wallander that the "US has provided Ukraine with long-range strike capabilities in the form of UAVs and GLSDB." She also suggests that Ukraine has hit targets in Crimea with them. (https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1756020408782913781?s=20)
Which UAVs are those? They haven't been disclosed yet, but if those trinkets of info about the Western help with naval drones are suggesting what I tried to deduce here, there's a reason to think that a similar help will materialise for long-range UAVs. So is there someone from outside running the SBU air campaign on Russia? I would say no, or not yet. Wait for new designs to come up, could be in that domain we're still in the phase of those first Ukrainian naval drones striking Sevastopol. Hopefully, someone as competent as in the Black Sea area of operations will be running those ops in time. And fingers crossed they raid some airfields but also don't end up like Iraqis taking 8 years to finally strike the right targets in Iran's refineries.
Allow me to argue with you about "biggest concern for Ukrainians is life of their soldiers".
No, Ukraine is not fighting for life of its soldiers.
Its an existantial war between russia and Ukraine over the territory of Ukraine.
Russia wants to exchaust Ukraine, but it exchausing itself as well. Ukrainian goal is to exchaust Russia to the level they stop the war.
It might be physical impossibility ( when all russian tanks are destroyed or no oil ) or revolution in moscow - both are fine.
Hitting oil has a strategic exchaustment on russia as well as media effect: possibility to stop the war, more russians will see the damage, russian tanks will have no oil, no money for the budget
I'm in agreement with you and your theory; if Russia is paying for this war via oil sales, then why wouldn't you hit said infrastructure as often and as hard as possible. A further bonus is it pulls Russia's ADA assets away from the war zone.
It just seems to me a very realistic and and actually useful strategy.
Its also laverage on USA, which is already troubled about how its gonna influence prcies - give us weapons with which we can hit better targets, or dont talk into our strategy. Also Ukraine probably fighting the grain war. Russia needed to stop oil exports to harvest grain last year. Guess that this year it only gets worse. But its better to asume, that the commanders are just stupid...
Doesn't matter good or bad this exact decisions, you totally wrong in one key thing. Military or politicians or any structure in Ukraine perfectly capable to fail in any possible way, without any interference from abroad. So no need to create complex , near conspiracy theories to explain what is 99% chance to be local incompetency, internal power struggle or else
By someone from abroad - only from kremlin in ruzzia. It's always been like that in Ukraine
Or maybe the Occam's Razor explanation to the quandary implied in the article, about why the Ukrainians are striking POL infrastructure instead of airbases ("tail rather than teeth") is that Russian airbases are actually quite well defended.
Having said that, can I imagine the SBU acting with a view to a post-war role as "NATO's Wagner?" Yes, absolutely. I'm sure that after 2 years of this unprecedented peer-warfare they can kick every mercenary in the Pentagon's arse very very hard, and, much more importantly, with vastly better plausible deniability.
Two thoughts:
1. Activities in Africa & targeting POL are aimed at reducing Russia's long-term financial capacity to wage war. These are long-term strategic activities that have been underway for some time, and Ukraine is a big enough country to continue these activities at the same time as fighting on home soil. I agree that now is a good time to focus some of these capabilities on protecting troops from the growing air threat, but the UAF has its role and the SBU has theirs, and such a change in focus across organisational boundaries takes time.
2. I fully expect that the Ukrainians perceive political value in "bringing the war home to Russia" during the election period, another reason why I expect the POL attacks to continue. The timing of this week's incursions by Russian rebels is, I'm sure, related to this too.
I see. Thanks a lot.
Just, that itch in my small toe... must be something chronical, obviously... or... lets say, I'm asking for a friend. Really, nothing else. Asking for a friend:
- if the Russian UMPKs are killing - on average - some 20 ZSU troops a day, and wounding another 50...
....how many ZSU troops are going to be KIA/200 or WIA/300 by the time of Russian elections?
Are we sure that the Ukrainians haven't been trying to hit those airbases recently?
Fact is: except for the UAV-strike on Taganrog AB, not one other such attack is known.
Reporting From Ukraine's latest YouTube report states that two airfields were targeted, but doesn't mention any results:
https://youtu.be/2Fp9A3xx_I8?t=300
Not known is not the same as not existing. Drone shot down over forest during attempted attack on airbase is hardly news these days. Big fire on rafinery - different story.
France24 also reporting that an airbase was targeted:
https://youtu.be/IcMCNM-pNd0?t=71
I think it likely the airbases are much better protected than more numerous POL facilities. So there is every possibility attacks on the air bases have been run without success
Or the Ukrainians are going where the air defenses aren’t.
When you are fighting war that heavily depends on external help that is influenced by social media - like it or not-
Infinite, as you cam hardly call that an election what is coming up and under the current regime there won't be one.
To add to this:
3. Could it be that air bases are not targeted, because they are few and well protected from UAV attacks? At the same time, there are around 30 of oil refinery plants and they are less protected (some even less then the others).
I suspect that air bases are much better protected, indeed, so hitting oil and transportation infrastructure is much easier. You cannot protect every pipeline and bridge
This in turn will force Russia to move their SAM and ECM assets to non military sites such as oil refineries.
Which, in turn, could make an opening of airfield defenses ripe for exploitation and destruction of Russian air force assets
Thanks Tom. I have no clue as to why the SBU are even sipping tea in Sudan, let alone fighting Wagner. The only, even remotely, rational reason I can think of is disrupting gold shipments to Russia.
However, I disagree with your assessment of the bombing campaign of Russian refineries. As you stated yourself, these long range drones are completely inadequate for conducting any shaping operations. Also, they do seem to target air bases, e.g. Taganrog, but they clearly have trouble catching VKS planes on the tarmac.
On the other hand, shutting down refineries is one more critical step to bringing this war to an end. This war will not end like WW2. It will end like WW1. Russia has already had to ban fuel exports (refined products, not crude oil) for 6 months. This is money, a lot of money, and most importantly, cash, in useful currencies, something they are desperate for. There are also pleasant side effects, e.g. the Lukoil Nizhny Novgorod refinery had a pipeline to Moscow. Now the fuel will have to be brought in by road or rail, putting significant pressure on the logistics. Also, it is important to hit refineries, rather than crude oil facilities, as this does not affect oil prices. In addition, it is possible that if the campaign continues, with as much success, then Russia will have to start importing fuel. Money, money, money.
Google says 6 month of refined oil products is 18 bln usd for russia.
Here is how its calculated.
Amount of refined oil export in 2021 - 146 mln ton.
1 ton is about 7.5 barrels. 1 crude barrel costs 70 usd, so 1 ton is about 500 usd.
146 mln ton is 36 bln usd. But thats crude oil. I dont know the price of "refined product" if its 2 or 3 times more then crude then its not 18 bln but 2, 3, 4 times more
Unfortunately, it is much more complicated and much of the data is not publically available. There are many taxes on oil products. The ban is for petrol and diesel, not all refined products, albeit these cover probably most of the value. Also, the exports to countries of the Eurasian Economic Union are still allowed. Of what is exported, I haven't found any data on the actual prices Russian companies sell them for and what the associated costs are, so have no idea about the profit. However, it certainly is a significant hit and most importantly, less hard currency to spend on imports.
I would tend to agree that this is going to end like WWI, and I would add that I hope it includes a change of government in the aggressor nation like WWI did.
Be careful what you wish for, the Bolsheviks replaced the Tsar, Hitler replaced the Kaiser (with the failed Weimar republic in between). Better the devil you know.
Spot on. A better phrase would be "changes *in the* government"
Maybe I am a little bit optimistic today and... what if Ukrainian are not Russian air bases because nowadays all that are in range of UAVs are protected enough and thus the rate of success of such attack is really low? At the same time the Russians can not protect also the POL sites that are a relatively easy target, as we saw in the last months.
I'm most probably wrong, I have no qualification to say, but I like to think that UAF are trying to push russians to redeploy their air defence systems closer to the oil refineries so it's easier to target military targets, but that's wishful thinking on my side.
P.S. Thanks for another piece of information that motivates me to look at things from a different angle.
Not only that. Refineries are an easier target, their damage has long lasting economic impact and are also very visible world wide. So while Tom (obviously!) has a point, these attacks make sense to me too.
I tend to think the aim of such strikes to lure out the orc jammers and AA from their airfields and the Frontline. As they cannot protect everything and we already tried their airfields. They are relatively good protected, at least for now. Oil is money for Russia and one of the primary means to feed this war. Let them try to protect that as well. Especially before the elections
Nah, you are too much focused on the military part of the war, while completely ignoring maybe even more important part of the war, than military - economics. russia do have almost unlimited amount of money, considering that western sanctions doing close to zero damage to russian economics and all this "western hell sanctions" is just a fart in the winds.
Just for comparison, russian military budget for 2024 is around 140-150 billion dollars, while ukrainian military budget for 2024, even if we add US 60$ billions that isn't voted yet, Ukraine still will have less than 100$ billions for 2024. If we compare everything else, like mobilisation potential, military production, weapons in warehouse and blablablablabla, Ukraine is losing in long run in all means, because russia have more of everything, while the West is still very busy with "unprecedentedly and decisively" wanking their dicks, instead of helping Ukraine to win the war asap.
But the funny thing is, that any country in the world can't wage a war on that scale for long time, if their money is limited. Simply because if there is no money, then state can't pay soldiers to continue war. It can't buy all this cool western stuff to produce more weapons. It can't even hold it's economics against very mild and useless western sanctions.
You see what i mean? russian GDP is approximately 30-50% made of from selling oil, gas, gasoline and blablablablabla. Hitting all this stuff in russia, means destroying russia's money. Literally. In insane amounts.
Destroying wagner in Sudan means that russia won't be able to steal gold there, which is another hit on their economics. No stolen gold - no money - war end faster. And it's done by some ±100 soldiers from SBU, it's not a significant number in this war like at all, but effect from their operations in Sudan is very....noticable and obvious.
So considering how hesitant the West in helping Ukraine to win the war, considering shitshow in US and that trump will most likely become the president, and considering that NATO is already shitting in its pants while not even participating in this war, the only real chance for Ukraine to win this war, is to break russian economics, so it become impossible for russia to continue the war. Another chance is some "black swan", but it should be way more significant, than just putin's death. If putin die like now, it will change absolutely nothing. They are fascist by their nature and they will find another fucker who will continue this war like nothing happened at all.
Hitting russian air bases is good decision in short term, but if Ukraine doesn't block russian "money veins" like oil/gas/gasoline trades and trades with stolen gold, in long term russia will find the way to recover all their lost aircrafts, but by that time Ukraine already will be with less resources to repeat that/will be just in worse position in war. Also all this air bases are protected with AA/EW systems even harder, than your girlfriend's father was protecting her panties back in the days when you was a teenager. While at the same time oil infrastructure in russia protected even less, than panties of this school chick that was hanging out with school football team back in the days when you was a teenager. So it's not big surprise that Ukraine is hitting russian oil infrastructure, instead of air bases.
But on more serious note, it's very interesting that even western military experts sometimes have some lack of context in this war, because of simply doesn't knowing language. I mean, all what I'm saying now, was revealed in ukrainian media like billion times, as well as by ukrainian military experts/officials/randoms/whoever. I think like everyone in Ukraine knows why Ukraine hits russian oil infrastructure and SBU doing hell party for wagner in Sudan.
In principle, I basically agree, but I disagree on the point that the sanctions hardly hurt Russia. It hurts a lot, and the oil industry is one of the points where it can meet beautifully - thanks to the sanctions, the Russians will not be able to repair the damage sufficiently. They will lack sanctioned technology, they will lack money. From the engine of the economy, oil is slowly turning into a burden.
Their oil trades now are bigger than ever, even bigger than pre-war lmao. They simply transport it via their shadow fleet to some neutral ports, pump oil to Chinese/Indian tankers and boom - it's not russian oil anymore, it's Chinese/Indian oil now that get sold to the West or whatever. Same with their gas, that they are transfer to Hungaria and then it sold to Europe as Hungarian gas or whatever. I might be not right on details, but they obviously avoid sanctions. And the thing is, until all trades with russia will be prohibited and until russia is claimed as terrorist state, they will find a way to avoid sanctions, which means they will still have unlimited money to wage a war.
Also shit tons of sanctions are just personal sanctions, like blocking bank accounts or some russian oligarchs, which means this sanctions are just nominal and useless, because it hits only some russian oligarchs, not russia as a state. Who cares if some bank account in western bank of some russian oligarch is blocked? He didn't kept his money in russia anyway, so there is no point in such sanctions at all.
Don't fool yourself with all this "hell sanctions". If it was true, russia would end this war a long time ago, due to destroyed economy. Nobody gives a single fuck in Ukraine if in 10-20-50 years russia won't be able to produce some shit, because right now russia is still able to outproduce whole fucking west artillery shells production in 3 fucking times. The whole fucking west that holds 45% of world's economy looks like a rookie in artillery shells production against russia which holds 1-3% of world's economy. Thats just ridiculous and actually a great example of how "useful" sanctions is.
This comment has lot of misconceptions, but sadly the braindead mainstream media is only reinforcing them so Im not suprised anymore.
First, about the shells - I know CNN talked about this, but they confuse all shells vs the main (152/155s ones). Russia outproduces the West 3x if you count all their produced calibres vs Western 155s - the difference is much more subdued if you count either all calibres or only 152 vs 155 (for the last the figure 1,5m vs 1,2m as of now). Still bad, but not *as* bad.
Second, regarding oil and gas - I dont think any gas reselling exists since the only operational pipeline, TurkStream is at max capacity and its just enough to supply Serbia, Hungary and some % of Austria's needs. Russian LNG does gets sold since *no sanctions exist on gas* (I can't believe how many people are not aware of this) but its volume far, far less than what they used to send through pipelines.
Russia also isn't selling more fossil fuels than prew-war , thats completely bogus, see https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/ for numbers. The Indian oil reselling story is also vastly overblown. Indian crude oil export *doesn't* exists. India does export refined petroleum products, and some of it ends up in the EU. Yes, but the EU also imports crude for its own refineries, meaning we dont really need all that much refined products. The main exception is diesel due to European favoritism of such engines, where there's a 10% gap between EU refinery output and consumption, which was traditionally covered by Russia. India did partially step in and right now Indian diesel supplies 3-4% of European consumption - so it's not completely irrevelant but also hardly the earth shaking story some news pieces sold it as. Its only impressive in terms of relative growth since it grew from basically nothing to couple hundred thousands of barrels a day - but the EU consumes 10 million barrels of diesel a day...
All what you said have sense if we were talking about how much EU is buying oil/gas from russia.
And it's completely doesn't have sense if we are talking about for how long russia can finance the war. Link that you posted is perfectly shows that regardless how much oil/gas/coal russia sells to the West, in still doing insane profit on it. Like i said, russian military budget for 2024 is ±140-150 billion dollars. For 2 years of war, russia made 619 billions euros selling their resources globally and 188 billion euros selling it only to EU. Thats enough to finance the war for over 4 years more.
For comparison only on global oil selling in 2021, russia has earned 110 billion euros. For two years of war, russia globally earned 429 billion euros only on oil, or 215 billion euros per year, which is in two times more profit than russia made in 2021.
I don't give a single fuck for how much fossil fuels russia sells per year in tonns. But i do give a fuck about how much money russia earn on it. And it's clear for everyone that sanctions work "so well", so now russia's profits in few times higher than pre-war, even considering there is a sanctions that limiting price of russian oil. And it's only "official stats", which doesn't include statistic of how much russian fossil fuels were sold by avoiding sanctions and using their shadow fleet. It's definitely in few times higher than "official stat" shows.
Exactly. And on the other side, the export of Western high-tech restricted goods to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Armenia and so on have increased like 1000 times or so. It's not hard to guess where is everything going. Everyone knows it, but not selling means the Western economies will get hurt. Nobody wants that. Recession in the West means no funding for Ukraine anyway. It's a vicious circle. IMHO, sanctions are working, but very slowly, as you said, and Ukraine doesn't have the time. It's not the cold War; people are dying every day :(
The export tracker shows payments, not profit, from which you have to deduct shipping and operational costs like maintanance, ammortisation and salaries (and taxes but in case of state owned companies its hardly relevant here). So I'd be cautious to assume all those hundreds of billions appeared in Russian state treasury - they couldn't, the operation isn't running for free. If you look at Russian finance mod statements regarding oil&gas revenues, for 2021, they reported an income of 9,1trn RUB, for 2022 11,6trn, for 2023 8,82trn (i refer to rubel values since in $/€ these vary due to exchange rate fluctuations). As such, its obvious that it is very much possible to eat into Russian finances with well targeted sanctions (8,8trn rub is aprx $99billion), consider the recent round of secondary ones targeting banks that caused considerable backup of Russian oil cargo ships, this is the kind of mechanisms the West must apply more of:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/tankers-tied-to-the-russian-oil-trade-grind-to-a-halt-following-us-sanctions
And keep in mind 2022 was an exceptionally good year for all fossil exporters due to high market prices, and the EU oil sanction only came into effect in December, refined product sanction months late.
So sorry, but no way in hell Russia is earning multiple times the money it did pre-war. It earnt perhaps 20-30% more in 2022 aided by high global prices, only for the figure to drop to lowest level in years for '23, see:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/011124-russias-2023-oil-and-gas-revenues-falls-to-three-year-low
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-11/russian-government-s-2023-oil-and-gas-revenue-curbed-by-sanctions-cheaper-crude
Sanctions were almost completely useless.
I agree with your evaluation. Attacking Russian oil industry will decrease their possibility to easily ship oil and gas to their current contracts (like Austria). To avoid breaking the terms of the contract they will have to divert oil from their business and war efforts, creating shortage for the internal market and gas prices going higher for russians. Thus, is also creates internal tension and potential for civil unrest.
If i remember correctly, russia banner gasoline export for 6 months. So yeah, hits on russian oil/gas/gasoline infrastructure is working.
You have some valid points but maybe this statement doesnt help the discourse"than your girlfriend's father was protecting her panties back in the days when you was a teenager. "
Well, i do like silly jokes like that. Helps to not get insane, while being in the middle of the war. Ever heard about Joe?
"Destroying wagner in Sudan means that russia won't be able to steal gold there, which is another hit on their economics. No stolen gold - no money - war end faster. And it's done by some ±100 soldiers from SBU, it's not a significant number in this war like at all, but effect from their operations in Sudan is very....noticable and obvious."
It's also possible demonstrating their special ops value to the US (or, perish the thought, Israel) could shore up utterly crucial Congressional support for funding the war. We know America fucks over its allies (Kurdistan?), but America has also tended to like allies who fight for it on the side like Roman auxilliaries or Nazi "HiWis". Cf. all the Visegrad group countries doing fealty to Dubya in Afghanistan...
I doubt that, because US specops is still kinda mad at ukrainian specops after its successful evacuation operation in Afghanistan, when ukrainians evacuated US allies and staff. On the one hand it's good thing, on the other hand it pictured US specops as fucking clowns. I mean like come on, it's US and it shit its own pants big time by leaving it's own people behind, hesitating to do some small urban fights against some bearded religious dudes in flip-flops, armed with ak47.
I bet some high ranks in US are lost their stars after Afghanistan, as well as keep loosing it looking at SBU success in Sudan.
Interesting and germane.
Someone needs to write a potted history of Ukrainians in the PMC industry since 1991, especially with reference to the Ukranian "geostrategy" if one can speak of such. I'm sure it would be thrilling and horrifying in equal measure.
Do we know the targets of drones that are shot down every night by Russian air defenses? What if it is the case that for the Russians those airports with beautifully arranged planes are a priority and Ukraine cannot therefore hit them, while the Russians simply cannot protect all the refineries? And that's why we see refineries hit (which is a good strategic goal in the long run) but we don't see airports hit? Just a thought...
The weak warhead of the UAV allows it to attack only oil facilities where there are flammable fractions.
Ah, the 5mm thick aluminium skin of Su-34 is harder to penetrate than 10cm thick stell walls of a POL-dump?
Seriously: is that making sense to you?
What if VKS just gets it Su-34 up in the air in case of air alert, just like UAF did in the first days of the war? It's a bit more difficult to move POL out of the UAVs' way.
This is not an FVP drone. It doesn't have precise guidance. And oil industry facilities begin to burn themselves. From the slightest leakage of light fractions. I ASSUME that this is the basis of the strategy.
I think you underestimate their precision. Just check the video of second drone hitting exactly same column at oil refinery in Ryazan like previous one. And size this column is not really big. So as for now they look quite precise to hit same object few times over 800 km distance.
In order to hit multiple airplanes and helicopters in a base, you need cluster munitions. Using unitary munitions means that you have to use a large number of drones trying to hit multiple airplanes.
Instead, a single hit on an oil fuel tank has the possibility of huge damage in a large area, as these fires are self sustained and can cause secondary problems
So also when these airplanes are tidily lined-up on the tarmac?
These satellite photos are probably out of date. Nothing guarantees that these aren't dispersed at this moment
SU-34 is movable and here is main difference
"However, it – obviously – has the means to strike Russian air bases." Why do you think so? my understanding that it's virtually impossible to damage any of them with the means UA has. Currently it takes a lot of intel to route the painfully slow UAVs to avoid the russian air defense and yet 90% of them intercepted. Going for the airbases will just make it 100%.
Had Ukraine had SCAD or some other ballistic means (let's say from Pakistan, maybe) that would have been a different story.
Ukraine was striking Russian air bases - like Millerovo - already back on 25 February 2022.
It has hit Taganrog AB, few days ago, too.
Perhaps yes, 50%+ of deployed drones were shot down over Taganrog, but those that did get through have caused damage.
....and the experience form this war is clear: if one kills enough Russians, then they stop assaulting.
So, why should that be 'impossible' or 'too complex' to strike Russian air bases? Destroying the enemy air power on the ground, before it can take off, is something like 1x1 of air warfare at least since 1918...
But the density of the air defense in russia is way to high. there's more chance in sending a strong message by striking oil depots.
BTW, list night (Wednesday, March 13), the SBU, together with other branches of the Defense Forces, attacked with drones the air base of the Russian Air Force in Buturlinivka and the military airfield in Voronezh. Not sure if there was any result, though.
I'm a bit frustrated with the apparent strategic authonomy of the SBU too, yet it's possible they don't strike on RU airbases not because they think it's not important but because the drones they have aren't capable to breakthrough. Airbases are obviously one of the most GBAD- and EW-cowered places, and the strike drones UA has in any kind of numbers are just slightly modified agricultural and surveyour ones, not very capable of avoiding SHORAD or weathering EW. That's why, I think, they are still hitting civilian oil infractructure mostly - that's the thing they can hit hard, while airbases... well, these they can just drop around in numbers only, except of some rare cases like the 1st A-50 hit in Bielorussia (possibly because of it was in Bielorussia indeed and so the local airbase had no proper GBAD and EW coverage).
I actually think there's a lot of sense in this targeting.
In Iraq's example - yes, there would be no point in hitting Iraq industry because Iraq had no time or opportunity to convert oil to military equipment. Russia, on the other hand, has a clear way to do so, and the time to execute it:
1. Sell oil for money
2. Spend money for non-sanctioned goods or pay on black market for sanctioned goods, including:
- components for refurbishing old USSR equipment
- production of new equipment or ammo
- import of equipment
3. Provide military equipment to the troops
So the value of the oil destroyed directly translates towards reduction in the value of military equipment Russia can field.
Thanks Tom for good questions. I am amateur and know fast nothing about war.
I have no idea about Sudan, but some points to POL. Drones can destroy weak defend targets and maybe this attacks on POL will push RU to move air defence from airports to POL.. Decreasing russia oil product export for 20% means 200 milions dollars less every week and that means 200 shaheds every week less.
Thanks for the interesting reflection Tom. Regarding the way of waging war in Ukraine, the truth is that it is exhausting to see the number of daily videos showing the death of people due to FPV drones instead of attacking logistics, strategic places, roads, plants, etc. . .
I would wager that Russian air bases are far better protected against drone attacks. It might be that Ukrainians are simply going after what they can. Its better than doing nothing and Russia would have to disperse some of its air defence to defend refineries as well. Maybe this leaves gaps presenting some further options for drones.
But yes the 1500kg glides bombs that Russia is using are far more pressing problem as no defensive line can protect against those.
So far I havent seen no counter for that. Not even something that could theoretically neutralise this threat.
Fully agree here, they are doing the best they can, airbases are heavily protected, and drone attacks are too slow, they will be able to take the planes in air well before the drones arrive. So they attack other targets which are available. Also I think those attacks is the maximum allowed by West, more like the demonstration of abilities which West thinks should scare Putin (plot twist: it will not, and we know it, but West is too afraid to admit this).
Re glide bombs - I am actually not sure even West has the proper answer for those, except air domination with long range AA missiles. I guess there will be some asymmetric response, like GUR killing pilots or such. So, West better provide Ukraine with proper weapons or the things will get very very ugly behind the ru front line.