Hello everybody! By all accounts it is meanwhile obvious: the Ukrainian armed forces (ZSU) have fought another ‘biiiiiiiiiiiig’ Russian winter offensive to a literal standstill. Caused them so many losses that the Russians cannot continue feeding similar amounts of troops and equipment into the battlefield like they did since October. Sure, the Russians are still assaulting ‘here and there’, but nowhere near as ferociously as the last five months.
I am a bit confused, IDF is not cuddling orcs in Gaza? Maybe that's the core of the problem, that they think they are cuddling orcs, but in fact, they are committing the genocide. What's a difference between cuddling orcs and committing a genocide? And how big this difference is, is a man able to recognize it?
Alas, and unfortunately, Tom, you are completely and completely right - it seems that strategic decisions in Ukraine are not made by Ukrainian generals, but by someone from abroad - those who do not care about the people of Ukraine because they are at war with russia , and Ukraine for them is just a testing ground...
1. Activities in Africa & targeting POL are aimed at reducing Russia's long-term financial capacity to wage war. These are long-term strategic activities that have been underway for some time, and Ukraine is a big enough country to continue these activities at the same time as fighting on home soil. I agree that now is a good time to focus some of these capabilities on protecting troops from the growing air threat, but the UAF has its role and the SBU has theirs, and such a change in focus across organisational boundaries takes time.
2. I fully expect that the Ukrainians perceive political value in "bringing the war home to Russia" during the election period, another reason why I expect the POL attacks to continue. The timing of this week's incursions by Russian rebels is, I'm sure, related to this too.
Thanks Tom. I have no clue as to why the SBU are even sipping tea in Sudan, let alone fighting Wagner. The only, even remotely, rational reason I can think of is disrupting gold shipments to Russia.
However, I disagree with your assessment of the bombing campaign of Russian refineries. As you stated yourself, these long range drones are completely inadequate for conducting any shaping operations. Also, they do seem to target air bases, e.g. Taganrog, but they clearly have trouble catching VKS planes on the tarmac.
On the other hand, shutting down refineries is one more critical step to bringing this war to an end. This war will not end like WW2. It will end like WW1. Russia has already had to ban fuel exports (refined products, not crude oil) for 6 months. This is money, a lot of money, and most importantly, cash, in useful currencies, something they are desperate for. There are also pleasant side effects, e.g. the Lukoil Nizhny Novgorod refinery had a pipeline to Moscow. Now the fuel will have to be brought in by road or rail, putting significant pressure on the logistics. Also, it is important to hit refineries, rather than crude oil facilities, as this does not affect oil prices. In addition, it is possible that if the campaign continues, with as much success, then Russia will have to start importing fuel. Money, money, money.
Maybe I am a little bit optimistic today and... what if Ukrainian are not Russian air bases because nowadays all that are in range of UAVs are protected enough and thus the rate of success of such attack is really low? At the same time the Russians can not protect also the POL sites that are a relatively easy target, as we saw in the last months.
I'm most probably wrong, I have no qualification to say, but I like to think that UAF are trying to push russians to redeploy their air defence systems closer to the oil refineries so it's easier to target military targets, but that's wishful thinking on my side.
P.S. Thanks for another piece of information that motivates me to look at things from a different angle.
I tend to think the aim of such strikes to lure out the orc jammers and AA from their airfields and the Frontline. As they cannot protect everything and we already tried their airfields. They are relatively good protected, at least for now. Oil is money for Russia and one of the primary means to feed this war. Let them try to protect that as well. Especially before the elections
Nah, you are too much focused on the military part of the war, while completely ignoring maybe even more important part of the war, than military - economics. russia do have almost unlimited amount of money, considering that western sanctions doing close to zero damage to russian economics and all this "western hell sanctions" is just a fart in the winds.
Just for comparison, russian military budget for 2024 is around 140-150 billion dollars, while ukrainian military budget for 2024, even if we add US 60$ billions that isn't voted yet, Ukraine still will have less than 100$ billions for 2024. If we compare everything else, like mobilisation potential, military production, weapons in warehouse and blablablablabla, Ukraine is losing in long run in all means, because russia have more of everything, while the West is still very busy with "unprecedentedly and decisively" wanking their dicks, instead of helping Ukraine to win the war asap.
But the funny thing is, that any country in the world can't wage a war on that scale for long time, if their money is limited. Simply because if there is no money, then state can't pay soldiers to continue war. It can't buy all this cool western stuff to produce more weapons. It can't even hold it's economics against very mild and useless western sanctions.
You see what i mean? russian GDP is approximately 30-50% made of from selling oil, gas, gasoline and blablablablabla. Hitting all this stuff in russia, means destroying russia's money. Literally. In insane amounts.
Destroying wagner in Sudan means that russia won't be able to steal gold there, which is another hit on their economics. No stolen gold - no money - war end faster. And it's done by some ±100 soldiers from SBU, it's not a significant number in this war like at all, but effect from their operations in Sudan is very....noticable and obvious.
So considering how hesitant the West in helping Ukraine to win the war, considering shitshow in US and that trump will most likely become the president, and considering that NATO is already shitting in its pants while not even participating in this war, the only real chance for Ukraine to win this war, is to break russian economics, so it become impossible for russia to continue the war. Another chance is some "black swan", but it should be way more significant, than just putin's death. If putin die like now, it will change absolutely nothing. They are fascist by their nature and they will find another fucker who will continue this war like nothing happened at all.
Hitting russian air bases is good decision in short term, but if Ukraine doesn't block russian "money veins" like oil/gas/gasoline trades and trades with stolen gold, in long term russia will find the way to recover all their lost aircrafts, but by that time Ukraine already will be with less resources to repeat that/will be just in worse position in war. Also all this air bases are protected with AA/EW systems even harder, than your girlfriend's father was protecting her panties back in the days when you was a teenager. While at the same time oil infrastructure in russia protected even less, than panties of this school chick that was hanging out with school football team back in the days when you was a teenager. So it's not big surprise that Ukraine is hitting russian oil infrastructure, instead of air bases.
But on more serious note, it's very interesting that even western military experts sometimes have some lack of context in this war, because of simply doesn't knowing language. I mean, all what I'm saying now, was revealed in ukrainian media like billion times, as well as by ukrainian military experts/officials/randoms/whoever. I think like everyone in Ukraine knows why Ukraine hits russian oil infrastructure and SBU doing hell party for wagner in Sudan.
Do we know the targets of drones that are shot down every night by Russian air defenses? What if it is the case that for the Russians those airports with beautifully arranged planes are a priority and Ukraine cannot therefore hit them, while the Russians simply cannot protect all the refineries? And that's why we see refineries hit (which is a good strategic goal in the long run) but we don't see airports hit? Just a thought...
"However, it – obviously – has the means to strike Russian air bases." Why do you think so? my understanding that it's virtually impossible to damage any of them with the means UA has. Currently it takes a lot of intel to route the painfully slow UAVs to avoid the russian air defense and yet 90% of them intercepted. Going for the airbases will just make it 100%.
Had Ukraine had SCAD or some other ballistic means (let's say from Pakistan, maybe) that would have been a different story.
I'm a bit frustrated with the apparent strategic authonomy of the SBU too, yet it's possible they don't strike on RU airbases not because they think it's not important but because the drones they have aren't capable to breakthrough. Airbases are obviously one of the most GBAD- and EW-cowered places, and the strike drones UA has in any kind of numbers are just slightly modified agricultural and surveyour ones, not very capable of avoiding SHORAD or weathering EW. That's why, I think, they are still hitting civilian oil infractructure mostly - that's the thing they can hit hard, while airbases... well, these they can just drop around in numbers only, except of some rare cases like the 1st A-50 hit in Bielorussia (possibly because of it was in Bielorussia indeed and so the local airbase had no proper GBAD and EW coverage).
I actually think there's a lot of sense in this targeting.
In Iraq's example - yes, there would be no point in hitting Iraq industry because Iraq had no time or opportunity to convert oil to military equipment. Russia, on the other hand, has a clear way to do so, and the time to execute it:
1. Sell oil for money
2. Spend money for non-sanctioned goods or pay on black market for sanctioned goods, including:
- components for refurbishing old USSR equipment
- production of new equipment or ammo
- import of equipment
3. Provide military equipment to the troops
So the value of the oil destroyed directly translates towards reduction in the value of military equipment Russia can field.
Thanks Tom for good questions. I am amateur and know fast nothing about war.
I have no idea about Sudan, but some points to POL. Drones can destroy weak defend targets and maybe this attacks on POL will push RU to move air defence from airports to POL.. Decreasing russia oil product export for 20% means 200 milions dollars less every week and that means 200 shaheds every week less.
Thanks for the interesting reflection Tom. Regarding the way of waging war in Ukraine, the truth is that it is exhausting to see the number of daily videos showing the death of people due to FPV drones instead of attacking logistics, strategic places, roads, plants, etc. . .
I would wager that Russian air bases are far better protected against drone attacks. It might be that Ukrainians are simply going after what they can. Its better than doing nothing and Russia would have to disperse some of its air defence to defend refineries as well. Maybe this leaves gaps presenting some further options for drones.
But yes the 1500kg glides bombs that Russia is using are far more pressing problem as no defensive line can protect against those.
So far I havent seen no counter for that. Not even something that could theoretically neutralise this threat.
I am a bit confused, IDF is not cuddling orcs in Gaza? Maybe that's the core of the problem, that they think they are cuddling orcs, but in fact, they are committing the genocide. What's a difference between cuddling orcs and committing a genocide? And how big this difference is, is a man able to recognize it?
Alas, and unfortunately, Tom, you are completely and completely right - it seems that strategic decisions in Ukraine are not made by Ukrainian generals, but by someone from abroad - those who do not care about the people of Ukraine because they are at war with russia , and Ukraine for them is just a testing ground...
Two thoughts:
1. Activities in Africa & targeting POL are aimed at reducing Russia's long-term financial capacity to wage war. These are long-term strategic activities that have been underway for some time, and Ukraine is a big enough country to continue these activities at the same time as fighting on home soil. I agree that now is a good time to focus some of these capabilities on protecting troops from the growing air threat, but the UAF has its role and the SBU has theirs, and such a change in focus across organisational boundaries takes time.
2. I fully expect that the Ukrainians perceive political value in "bringing the war home to Russia" during the election period, another reason why I expect the POL attacks to continue. The timing of this week's incursions by Russian rebels is, I'm sure, related to this too.
Thanks Tom. I have no clue as to why the SBU are even sipping tea in Sudan, let alone fighting Wagner. The only, even remotely, rational reason I can think of is disrupting gold shipments to Russia.
However, I disagree with your assessment of the bombing campaign of Russian refineries. As you stated yourself, these long range drones are completely inadequate for conducting any shaping operations. Also, they do seem to target air bases, e.g. Taganrog, but they clearly have trouble catching VKS planes on the tarmac.
On the other hand, shutting down refineries is one more critical step to bringing this war to an end. This war will not end like WW2. It will end like WW1. Russia has already had to ban fuel exports (refined products, not crude oil) for 6 months. This is money, a lot of money, and most importantly, cash, in useful currencies, something they are desperate for. There are also pleasant side effects, e.g. the Lukoil Nizhny Novgorod refinery had a pipeline to Moscow. Now the fuel will have to be brought in by road or rail, putting significant pressure on the logistics. Also, it is important to hit refineries, rather than crude oil facilities, as this does not affect oil prices. In addition, it is possible that if the campaign continues, with as much success, then Russia will have to start importing fuel. Money, money, money.
Maybe I am a little bit optimistic today and... what if Ukrainian are not Russian air bases because nowadays all that are in range of UAVs are protected enough and thus the rate of success of such attack is really low? At the same time the Russians can not protect also the POL sites that are a relatively easy target, as we saw in the last months.
I'm most probably wrong, I have no qualification to say, but I like to think that UAF are trying to push russians to redeploy their air defence systems closer to the oil refineries so it's easier to target military targets, but that's wishful thinking on my side.
P.S. Thanks for another piece of information that motivates me to look at things from a different angle.
I tend to think the aim of such strikes to lure out the orc jammers and AA from their airfields and the Frontline. As they cannot protect everything and we already tried their airfields. They are relatively good protected, at least for now. Oil is money for Russia and one of the primary means to feed this war. Let them try to protect that as well. Especially before the elections
Nah, you are too much focused on the military part of the war, while completely ignoring maybe even more important part of the war, than military - economics. russia do have almost unlimited amount of money, considering that western sanctions doing close to zero damage to russian economics and all this "western hell sanctions" is just a fart in the winds.
Just for comparison, russian military budget for 2024 is around 140-150 billion dollars, while ukrainian military budget for 2024, even if we add US 60$ billions that isn't voted yet, Ukraine still will have less than 100$ billions for 2024. If we compare everything else, like mobilisation potential, military production, weapons in warehouse and blablablablabla, Ukraine is losing in long run in all means, because russia have more of everything, while the West is still very busy with "unprecedentedly and decisively" wanking their dicks, instead of helping Ukraine to win the war asap.
But the funny thing is, that any country in the world can't wage a war on that scale for long time, if their money is limited. Simply because if there is no money, then state can't pay soldiers to continue war. It can't buy all this cool western stuff to produce more weapons. It can't even hold it's economics against very mild and useless western sanctions.
You see what i mean? russian GDP is approximately 30-50% made of from selling oil, gas, gasoline and blablablablabla. Hitting all this stuff in russia, means destroying russia's money. Literally. In insane amounts.
Destroying wagner in Sudan means that russia won't be able to steal gold there, which is another hit on their economics. No stolen gold - no money - war end faster. And it's done by some ±100 soldiers from SBU, it's not a significant number in this war like at all, but effect from their operations in Sudan is very....noticable and obvious.
So considering how hesitant the West in helping Ukraine to win the war, considering shitshow in US and that trump will most likely become the president, and considering that NATO is already shitting in its pants while not even participating in this war, the only real chance for Ukraine to win this war, is to break russian economics, so it become impossible for russia to continue the war. Another chance is some "black swan", but it should be way more significant, than just putin's death. If putin die like now, it will change absolutely nothing. They are fascist by their nature and they will find another fucker who will continue this war like nothing happened at all.
Hitting russian air bases is good decision in short term, but if Ukraine doesn't block russian "money veins" like oil/gas/gasoline trades and trades with stolen gold, in long term russia will find the way to recover all their lost aircrafts, but by that time Ukraine already will be with less resources to repeat that/will be just in worse position in war. Also all this air bases are protected with AA/EW systems even harder, than your girlfriend's father was protecting her panties back in the days when you was a teenager. While at the same time oil infrastructure in russia protected even less, than panties of this school chick that was hanging out with school football team back in the days when you was a teenager. So it's not big surprise that Ukraine is hitting russian oil infrastructure, instead of air bases.
But on more serious note, it's very interesting that even western military experts sometimes have some lack of context in this war, because of simply doesn't knowing language. I mean, all what I'm saying now, was revealed in ukrainian media like billion times, as well as by ukrainian military experts/officials/randoms/whoever. I think like everyone in Ukraine knows why Ukraine hits russian oil infrastructure and SBU doing hell party for wagner in Sudan.
Do we know the targets of drones that are shot down every night by Russian air defenses? What if it is the case that for the Russians those airports with beautifully arranged planes are a priority and Ukraine cannot therefore hit them, while the Russians simply cannot protect all the refineries? And that's why we see refineries hit (which is a good strategic goal in the long run) but we don't see airports hit? Just a thought...
The weak warhead of the UAV allows it to attack only oil facilities where there are flammable fractions.
"However, it – obviously – has the means to strike Russian air bases." Why do you think so? my understanding that it's virtually impossible to damage any of them with the means UA has. Currently it takes a lot of intel to route the painfully slow UAVs to avoid the russian air defense and yet 90% of them intercepted. Going for the airbases will just make it 100%.
Had Ukraine had SCAD or some other ballistic means (let's say from Pakistan, maybe) that would have been a different story.
I'm a bit frustrated with the apparent strategic authonomy of the SBU too, yet it's possible they don't strike on RU airbases not because they think it's not important but because the drones they have aren't capable to breakthrough. Airbases are obviously one of the most GBAD- and EW-cowered places, and the strike drones UA has in any kind of numbers are just slightly modified agricultural and surveyour ones, not very capable of avoiding SHORAD or weathering EW. That's why, I think, they are still hitting civilian oil infractructure mostly - that's the thing they can hit hard, while airbases... well, these they can just drop around in numbers only, except of some rare cases like the 1st A-50 hit in Bielorussia (possibly because of it was in Bielorussia indeed and so the local airbase had no proper GBAD and EW coverage).
I actually think there's a lot of sense in this targeting.
In Iraq's example - yes, there would be no point in hitting Iraq industry because Iraq had no time or opportunity to convert oil to military equipment. Russia, on the other hand, has a clear way to do so, and the time to execute it:
1. Sell oil for money
2. Spend money for non-sanctioned goods or pay on black market for sanctioned goods, including:
- components for refurbishing old USSR equipment
- production of new equipment or ammo
- import of equipment
3. Provide military equipment to the troops
So the value of the oil destroyed directly translates towards reduction in the value of military equipment Russia can field.
Thanks Tom for good questions. I am amateur and know fast nothing about war.
I have no idea about Sudan, but some points to POL. Drones can destroy weak defend targets and maybe this attacks on POL will push RU to move air defence from airports to POL.. Decreasing russia oil product export for 20% means 200 milions dollars less every week and that means 200 shaheds every week less.
Thanks for the interesting reflection Tom. Regarding the way of waging war in Ukraine, the truth is that it is exhausting to see the number of daily videos showing the death of people due to FPV drones instead of attacking logistics, strategic places, roads, plants, etc. . .
I would wager that Russian air bases are far better protected against drone attacks. It might be that Ukrainians are simply going after what they can. Its better than doing nothing and Russia would have to disperse some of its air defence to defend refineries as well. Maybe this leaves gaps presenting some further options for drones.
But yes the 1500kg glides bombs that Russia is using are far more pressing problem as no defensive line can protect against those.
So far I havent seen no counter for that. Not even something that could theoretically neutralise this threat.