Ukraine War, 13 December, 2023: Battle for Stepove, Part 3

Hello everybody!

This is the third- and concluding part of Donald Hill’s detailed recapitulation of the Battle of Stepove, the major show-down on the northern side of the Avidiivka Campaign, the biggest and most ferocious battle in Ukraine of the last few months - probably also an affair decisive for the outcome of this winter’s campaign.

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Over the following days, the grim battle might have lost some of pace, but nothing in intensity. Because they were having difficulty making progress against the railroad, the Russians began to increase the width of the attack by using wave assaults north of Krasnohorivka. A wider front would allow Russia to bring more pressure to bear on the Ukrainian defenses and their artillery and drone responses wouldn’t be as concentrated.

Contrary to the times during the first 12-14 months of war, one of the things the Russians meanwhile do very well - indeed: better than the Ukrainians - is to dig. They start digging when they take new positions in order to hold them. Given enough time, they dig connecting trenches (called ‘communication trenches’), between the front lines and the rear areas to safely bring up supplies and replacements. Sometimes these communication trenches become tunnels. A Ukrainian soldier explains that those that dig live longer:

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1726219807769457036

And at Avidiivka the Russians started digging tunnels that terminated under the Ukrainian positions. They set off explosives under those positions: called mining, this is an ancient tactics, well known from many sieges of the last thousand years, and then from the American Civil War and the First World War too.

After ‘mining’ - or blowing up - a sector of Ukrainian frontline, the Russians are promptly rushing troops down the tunnel until they reach the spot where the explosion had collapsed it: there they dug a hole to the surface, then pour out and clear what is left of the Ukrainian position. This is a video of Russians using that tactic in the industrial part at the southeast end of Avdiivka:

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Further north, along the rail line, constant pounding by Russian artillery on Ukrainian defenses caused some of them to collapse. Russian assaults would then force Ukrainians to withdraw from their positions. Prior to counter-attacking, Ukrainian artillery bombard the same positions, now occupied by the Russians, and the trenches would degrade even further. There was at least one occasion where Ukrainians brought shovels to dig in and hold the position relatively safely, but the constant Russian waves didn’t give them enough time to dig in. Sometimes the waves were only 15 minutes apart, and Ukrainian commanders are refusing to accept the higher casualties rates certain to occur if they do not have well-established field-fortifications. Therefore, they are regularly withdrawing to the defenses that are still intact.

The Russians fight in a simple, brutal way that wears down the Ukrainians over time. If Ukraine can sustain its forces with replacements and ammunition, and repair its defences quickly enough, its lines are usually holding. If not, Ukrainians withdraw. Such methods worked well at Bakhmut and had some success at Avidiivka and all it costs Russia thousands of men and hundreds of vehicles.

Cold fact is: this is the price not only ‘System Putin’, but - apparently - most of Russia is willing and able to pay.

At this point, Russia suffered over 10,000 casualties. Ukrainian casualties haven’t been posted but if they are in the 2-3,000 range, that’s a lot.

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During the next week, the Russians were able to continue broadening the frontage by a huge 1.5 km advance up the rail line. This sector was guarded by a territorial defense unit, the 116th Brigade, not the 47th Brigade. The advance was stopped with the help of a lot of artillery and the 116th was able to stabilize the line with new defenses on a treeline.

One factor that helped the 116th out was a large counter-attack by the 47th Mech Brigade, that drove into the middle of the Russian advance and seized over 200m of treeline along the railroad. This is unlikely to sound as much, but it took a lots of guts and skill. More importantly: at a crucial point in time, it forced the Russians to divert forces to counter-counter-attack and recover the crucial section of the treeline. In this fashion, the strike by the 47th achieved its purpose. It bought the time for the 116th to withdraw in good order, and re-establish new defence line, further to the rear.

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With the front widened and the rail line secured, the Russians then re-focused on advancing along the three treelines perpendicular to Stepove. It’s the same tactic like before: push forward, get pushed back. Keep pushing forward until a reasonable defense is no longer possible. Then secure the position, accepting the casualties while doing so, and convert new positions into a new front line.

Then repeat the cycle.

Several times the Russians were able to reach the last three houses on the east end of Stepove - only to be pushed out. As they advanced up the three treelines, there’s less flanking fire from Ukrainians and the distance they had to advance over open fields was reduced. And every time Russia advances and gets pushed back, Ukrainian defenses are degraded.

Even if they can’t take and hold the railroad treeline, Ukraine will conduct infantry attacks and direct fire attacks by Bradleys to cause Russian casualties and disrupt future assaults, like here:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1728197379973894276

Over the last three weeks, Ukraine’s 116th Brigade consolidated its position, but the Russians were able to secure another 1.5 km of the western treeline along the railroad. This is a part of Russia’s effort to widen the front: the further they can advance westward from there, the less flanking fire the Stepove attack will receive from the north. Sometimes the flanking fire can be a few snipers from 500-1500 m away:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730525545274757172

Russia is also trying to widen the front by attacking south on the northern flank. This sector is 2-4 km east of the coke factory. So far, Ukraine is holding firm. This video is 2 km east of the coke factory:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733252629843620021

The main Russian effort remains Stepove and the coke factory. In earlier efforts Russia was contained to the very east end Stepove before being repeatedly pushed out. Recently, they’ve been able to reach the middle of the village. The Ukrainians pushed them back but the Russians are now holding the eastern third of the village. The endless waves of Russians keep washing against the Ukrainian defenses and the blood of Russians is slowly eroding them away. Here is a video of the fighting in the village:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1731618928504328267

Lately, the Russians have been attacking the coke factory on a narrow-, one kilometer front without any success. If the Russians continue to advance along the Stepove axis they will create a wider front along the coke factory to its north.

One important change is that Ukraine brought in additional EW assets to combat the Russian air superiority in drones. It’s had an effect. Russian drone attacks have been reduced and Russian artillery has been impacted because there are few Russian drones to spot for them. That said, Russia is skilled in electronic warfare and they invested heavily in it. There’s no guarantee Ukraine will be able to maintain this advantage. Moves and countermoves are always available in the electronic battlespace.

Russia still has a long way to go before Andiivka is no longer tenable for Ukraine to hold. It will cost Russia a lot to keep advancing but they have 40,000 troops in the area, they’re mobilizing over 20,000 men a month. They have the initiative but Ukraine has shown they can launch a successful assault if they are willing to pay the price.

As an example, it was reported two soldiers from the 47th Brigade were shot as they surrendered…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730928387458289687

When they found out, the 47th organized an assault and they didn’t take any prisoners..

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1730288646568173600

In the meantime, the Ukrainians need to improve their methods of digging in: they have to learn to dig in like the Russians nowadays do.