Until now Ukrainian officials are silent concerning the possible damage of the Kerch bridge. Usually in such cases Ukrainian media have some information from the Crimean Tatars or from intelligence. So we have to conclude that the result may be far from the desired. Yesterday Genstab informed about "partly successful" operation in Robotyne.
In some of the photos of the bridge (from yesterday) I believe we may see some black smoke, too. I guess that should not be a smoke screen generator. Any idea on the possible source? Maybe a hit or just a generator motor malfunction/fire?
I am surprised an old S200 is accurate enough to hit a bridge so far away but maybe it can. I read the war head is 200 Kg and travelling over 5,000 Km/h so I suppose it could sufficiently damage a bridge.
Anyway whether it hits or not it will certainly disrupt traffic over the bridge and such harassment is also useful.
I did post the smoke was a smoke screen in your 11th August "medals & money" thread, probably too late after everyone stopped reading those comments.
For Crimea, I find the Crimeanwind Telegram channel is quite reliable with useful photos.
The day before yesterday they had photos of petrol stations with no 95 or 98, hopefully related to the bridge logistics problems.
Today, they claim a drone attack on the logistics base in Novoozerne on the night of August 12, dozens of Russian soldiers were eliminated and wounded.
"while Russia declared it for ‘impossible’ the jet was felled by a SAM" - by their SAM, not by Ukrainian. The Russians insisted that the plane was downed by Ukrainian S-200, while the Ukrainian team insisted it's impossible and there must be some other cause. I've seen the materials, it was dirty and infamous struggle from the both sides.
Considering the amount of picture, video material and people riposting old information, it`s surprising how little mistakes you do. You should not apologist for this, navigating through the information jungle is not easy task, remembering every picture is impossible.
I don’t know about the accuracy of S-200 and certainly hope that the Ukrainians have worked to improve. I’m also aware of the importance of the bridge. But if the missile is not that accurate, why don’t they use them against at least the two refineries nearby!?
Because it is really hard to set stuff on fire in a refinery so that the fire spreads to other sectors and cause severe damage.
If you check all the previous attacks then you will see, that there was a lot of smoke going up but that was always just one reservoir. That brings you nice pictures but no results. Well explained by this video:
The story about who was shot down Tu 154 over the Black Sea in 2001 was unclear. When this accident happened Kuzmuk (the former minister of defence) collect a briefing. He revealed all circumstances and positions of the ukrainian troops in this games and said if I remember properly the ukrainian missile couldn't shoot down the plane. Then all ukrainian courts denied to satisfy the claims of the victims. Only backstage talks between Kuchma (the former president) and Pudding made Ukraine guilty. Why Kuchma took the russians guilty and what Pudding promised in return nobody knows.
Exactly. Just to add - neither RF authorities nor the air line ever tried to study the aircraft's wreckage. (Contrary to the popular belief, it was feasible despite the depth and the nature of Black Sea bottom).
"c) the contact sending the photo and claiming eight hits is no contact any more."
That seems too harsh. Why shouldn't "I'm making mistakes. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else." sarcasm redound to this individual too? Albeit I'm interested in knowing more of your general practices for navigating the limitations of sources of information.
Thanks for spare some time to update us. The full bridges affaire is more important than it seems superficiall: they’re the live link for occupied Crimea, so...
Minor quibble. All continental military forces for the past 150+ years rely on railways for bulk logistical support. Truck transport is effective for the 200 km past the last railhead. Trucking requires far more vehicles, personnel, hand loading, fuel, coordination and ultimately time than rail transport. The saving grace is more flexible distribution patterns and “not having all your eggs in one basket.” Since there is no current alternative to the advantage of rail transport, the Ukrainian, Russian, American etc. armies are dependent on that mode. Not overly dependent - that’s just the way it is.
"... All continental military forces for the past 150+ years rely on railways for bulk logistical support. Truck transport is effective for the 200 km past the last railhead...."
Have you ever heard of the Red Ball Highway Express??
The Red Ball Express did a great job for the 90 days it operated moving 12,500 tons of cargo per day in about 6,000 vehicles (each with 2 drivers).
A standard rail car holds 70-100 tons of cargo. Let’s call it 50 tons/car due to inefficiency (you seldom max out a car and some cargo is “fluffy”). A train of 100 cars can move 5,000 tons. Three trains a day can carry more than the Red Ball Express managed at its peak (with far fewer personnel).
You still have to trans load at the final railhead to trucks to deliver to the end user but the efficiency of rail for long haul logistics is only exceeded by ocean carriers
I dont disagree on the fact that trains are by far more efficient for long haul logistics over land, but I was triggered by the sentence "All continental..." which is just not true. We have to keep to the facts ;-)
The US enjoyed air supremacy in DS/DS and GWOT which made logistical resupply easier, safer and more reliable. There are still challenges relying on CRAF contracted carriers to haul freight down range (example only 2 wide body parking spots in Kandahar, it’s no fun to refuel a 747 from bladders at Al Assad, traffic rights for the most direct routes can be problematic, etc). I had many years experience with the US supply chain in all modes.
Re “ continental” I was trying to parse it a little closely. If you fight within Asia, Europe or Africa you use, need and protect your railways. The US/Canada have always had to incorporate ocean legs in the supply chain initially.
Again - this was a minor quibble over the word “overly”. I’m happy to leave it at that. Otherwise an insightful article by an analyst I follow regularly
Thanks for the update Tom its still good to read that some damage was done and it has to have the Russians pooping tacks worrying about how long the bridge will be usable
Sure, because Tom has *so* much free time.
Until now Ukrainian officials are silent concerning the possible damage of the Kerch bridge. Usually in such cases Ukrainian media have some information from the Crimean Tatars or from intelligence. So we have to conclude that the result may be far from the desired. Yesterday Genstab informed about "partly successful" operation in Robotyne.
In some of the photos of the bridge (from yesterday) I believe we may see some black smoke, too. I guess that should not be a smoke screen generator. Any idea on the possible source? Maybe a hit or just a generator motor malfunction/fire?
Any ideas?
On a bridge of this kind, there's very little to actually 'burn' - and thus emit black smoke.
Thus, sorry: simply not sure.
Traffic burns :)
It was a daylight attack.
I am surprised an old S200 is accurate enough to hit a bridge so far away but maybe it can. I read the war head is 200 Kg and travelling over 5,000 Km/h so I suppose it could sufficiently damage a bridge.
Anyway whether it hits or not it will certainly disrupt traffic over the bridge and such harassment is also useful.
I did post the smoke was a smoke screen in your 11th August "medals & money" thread, probably too late after everyone stopped reading those comments.
For Crimea, I find the Crimeanwind Telegram channel is quite reliable with useful photos.
The day before yesterday they had photos of petrol stations with no 95 or 98, hopefully related to the bridge logistics problems.
Today, they claim a drone attack on the logistics base in Novoozerne on the night of August 12, dozens of Russian soldiers were eliminated and wounded.
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/39300
Dear Tom, what do you mean by captioning second photo from the bottom with words „missile strike on a sawmill outside Berdyansk, in western Russia“?
Berdyansk is Ukraine! Although temporarily occupied by russia...
Belgorod area. Another typo. Is corrected now.
"missile strike on a sawmill outside Berdyansk, in western Russia"..well Berdyansk is in "western Russia" only if we accept Russia's anexation
Belgorod area....
Tom back on track 👍
"while Russia declared it for ‘impossible’ the jet was felled by a SAM" - by their SAM, not by Ukrainian. The Russians insisted that the plane was downed by Ukrainian S-200, while the Ukrainian team insisted it's impossible and there must be some other cause. I've seen the materials, it was dirty and infamous struggle from the both sides.
Considering the amount of picture, video material and people riposting old information, it`s surprising how little mistakes you do. You should not apologist for this, navigating through the information jungle is not easy task, remembering every picture is impossible.
He made a mistake, he apologized: nothing´s better.
When I made a mistake, I made a mistake. As far as possible, and as soon as possible, it's corrected and that's it.
Thank you Tom.
Waiting for the satellite images and holding breath...
I don’t know about the accuracy of S-200 and certainly hope that the Ukrainians have worked to improve. I’m also aware of the importance of the bridge. But if the missile is not that accurate, why don’t they use them against at least the two refineries nearby!?
Because it is really hard to set stuff on fire in a refinery so that the fire spreads to other sectors and cause severe damage.
If you check all the previous attacks then you will see, that there was a lot of smoke going up but that was always just one reservoir. That brings you nice pictures but no results. Well explained by this video:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q9w17Ne1S0M&feature=share8
Yes, it’s hard with a small drone, but now we are talking about missiles.
A better example might be the Ukrainian refinery in Kremenchuk
Still, you are talking about a facility which has lots of processes in place to prevent fire from spreading. It is too much effort for the effect.
The story about who was shot down Tu 154 over the Black Sea in 2001 was unclear. When this accident happened Kuzmuk (the former minister of defence) collect a briefing. He revealed all circumstances and positions of the ukrainian troops in this games and said if I remember properly the ukrainian missile couldn't shoot down the plane. Then all ukrainian courts denied to satisfy the claims of the victims. Only backstage talks between Kuchma (the former president) and Pudding made Ukraine guilty. Why Kuchma took the russians guilty and what Pudding promised in return nobody knows.
Exactly. Just to add - neither RF authorities nor the air line ever tried to study the aircraft's wreckage. (Contrary to the popular belief, it was feasible despite the depth and the nature of Black Sea bottom).
Tom wrote, "c) the contact sending the photo and claiming eight hits is no contact any more."
He should probably also avoid open windows, eh? :-)
"c) the contact sending the photo and claiming eight hits is no contact any more."
That seems too harsh. Why shouldn't "I'm making mistakes. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else." sarcasm redound to this individual too? Albeit I'm interested in knowing more of your general practices for navigating the limitations of sources of information.
Thanks for spare some time to update us. The full bridges affaire is more important than it seems superficiall: they’re the live link for occupied Crimea, so...
Minor quibble. All continental military forces for the past 150+ years rely on railways for bulk logistical support. Truck transport is effective for the 200 km past the last railhead. Trucking requires far more vehicles, personnel, hand loading, fuel, coordination and ultimately time than rail transport. The saving grace is more flexible distribution patterns and “not having all your eggs in one basket.” Since there is no current alternative to the advantage of rail transport, the Ukrainian, Russian, American etc. armies are dependent on that mode. Not overly dependent - that’s just the way it is.
"... All continental military forces for the past 150+ years rely on railways for bulk logistical support. Truck transport is effective for the 200 km past the last railhead...."
Have you ever heard of the Red Ball Highway Express??
The Red Ball Express did a great job for the 90 days it operated moving 12,500 tons of cargo per day in about 6,000 vehicles (each with 2 drivers).
A standard rail car holds 70-100 tons of cargo. Let’s call it 50 tons/car due to inefficiency (you seldom max out a car and some cargo is “fluffy”). A train of 100 cars can move 5,000 tons. Three trains a day can carry more than the Red Ball Express managed at its peak (with far fewer personnel).
You still have to trans load at the final railhead to trucks to deliver to the end user but the efficiency of rail for long haul logistics is only exceeded by ocean carriers
I dont disagree on the fact that trains are by far more efficient for long haul logistics over land, but I was triggered by the sentence "All continental..." which is just not true. We have to keep to the facts ;-)
Did you miss the past 30 years of conflicts ?
And that's generous.
Wtf "continental military forces" is supposed to mean beside RU anyway ?
The US enjoyed air supremacy in DS/DS and GWOT which made logistical resupply easier, safer and more reliable. There are still challenges relying on CRAF contracted carriers to haul freight down range (example only 2 wide body parking spots in Kandahar, it’s no fun to refuel a 747 from bladders at Al Assad, traffic rights for the most direct routes can be problematic, etc). I had many years experience with the US supply chain in all modes.
Re “ continental” I was trying to parse it a little closely. If you fight within Asia, Europe or Africa you use, need and protect your railways. The US/Canada have always had to incorporate ocean legs in the supply chain initially.
Again - this was a minor quibble over the word “overly”. I’m happy to leave it at that. Otherwise an insightful article by an analyst I follow regularly
Thanks for the update Tom its still good to read that some damage was done and it has to have the Russians pooping tacks worrying about how long the bridge will be usable