Dear Tom, thanks, however unpleasant are such developments. It seems to me that ZSU was relatively lacking HIMARS ammo, since around second half of August. And only a day or two it is back in stock or something.
I have my known explanation of decreasing Himars and Co. activities. Iskanders took out 10+Himars, M270s and other long range systems last weeks. The fact that ORYX is not reporting such losses does not mean they dod not take place.
Maybe, but unlikely. I would not go into all details, but if you mean supposed Kursk strikes, it instead had effects elsewhere. I would say a pattern similar to Nov-Dec 2023. We would see in the next few days how it will turn out. Also I did recently post a total list of US equipment deliveries, there were all Himars listed for all time, it was 40 if I remember well, as of Sep 6th. Surely, some were a replacement of losses.
Ah, so, you mean Oryx is the Ministry of Defence in Moscow?
Or could it be the the Keystone Cops in Moscow can't provide any kind of videos showing the destruction of as many M142s and/or M270s as you claim (and 99% of the few it has shown are either no M142/M270s, or decoys), although its targeting for Iskander-Ms (and BM-27s and BM-30s etc.) is depending on the Iskander's targeting system (see UAVs equipped with video-cameras) - which simply means there is no trace of evidence the VSRF did destroy as many as you claim?
....in between others, because the Russians can consider themselves lucky 'the West' is as plain stupid as to continue NOT supplying as many HIMARS and MLRS rounds as Ukraine needs. And thus, most of the time, the launchers simply lack ammo.
OK, there you are... corrected that too, and added an explanation... hope, that's making things dramatically different and everybody is feeling far better now.
Thanks. Nothing is making people happier during a war than the ability to change the world. Even if it's just the order of two letters somewhere on the internet.
Changing the letters does not change the essence. GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate). GUR (Main Directorate Intelligence). The essence of these departments is one and the same - intelligence. Also, their school is one still old Soviet. The same applies to the FSB and SBU.
Why has such a powerful organization as the GUR not destroyed a single person close to Putin in all these years and a whole decade? For example, Israel, together with the United States, killed the official terrorist Qassem Soleimani and the nuclear physicist responsible for Iran’s nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. They did it, but the Ukrainian special services did not. Why? Good question, isn't it? Think about it.
In a recent interview lavrov said, amost winking, "the West knows well where the red lines are". So (again exercising the simple reading between the lines) it means, what was happening up till now is not in any way crossing of those and not even close to that, including UA actions. Means also bombing oil plants or incursion into Kursk. And this means West indeed knows well and keeps to those lines very precisely. What could be that? Ballistic strikes? Fleet? F16? Nah, the only thing that was never touched is a personal safety of major P. gang members. So this is the only red line there. And it is logical, if you do not have illusions about major P. gang and its psychology. Never ever anything of country's destiny, people's lives or anything like that disturbed them. Besides their personal wealth and well-being and how those "circumstances" (including people) affect those. Minor temporary losses of profits do not count, as long as there are more profits in sight.
Many thanks again for a swift update, Tom. Even if no good news for Ukraine into it, is very welcome to be aware of all the latest developments. Seems that Kurks’ Bulge is going to dire straits from now on.
Thanks Tom for another clear update. So, VKRS is trying to regain initiative in Kursk sector?
The lack of activity of Bradleys and IFV on the ZSU side, could be a combination of the west not delivering them in the needed quantities and the VSRF finally hitting the right places of ammo and equipment stocks?
PSU, by their own reports, are intercepting always 90% of the drones and missiles that are launching at them.
What about Iskander production? It's seems to me that are more strikes now than in any period of time before.
What if the 144 drones the PSU launch against the internal oblast of Russia where instead lauched against suspected concentration of troops, command post and POL of the Tsentr group? Or the GUR attack against the sea platform, redirect all the special forces to counter the advances in prokhorovsk? GUR personel really take a toll in keeping the frontlines stable for months in 2023.
Why Ukraine are trying to do Hollywood style operations or seeking nice fist page "bold strikes" when it have urgent, field needs?
Looks like when the Boers lost their war against the british. Yeap, the history remember their courage and guerrilla táctics. But South África was british land for 60 more years... Or, more close to me, when we praise argentine pilots for their daring strikes on the Royal Navy... but Malvinas is still under british rule...
1. Tom wrote about it, starting from controffensive last year. Russian army is built to attack, so even their defense strategy includes permanent contr attacks to slow down the offensive. Now they just made more organized one. There is also info that they previously hitted some UA drone units
2. Main Bradley operator is 47th brigade that now is in the rear. I also don't understand how did you found it out, because Ukranians post IFV usage much rarer, whereas Russian show only their destruction. There are also plenty fpv near Pokrovsk too. Obviously there aren't enough ifv, but I don't see any reduction of total IFV activity
3. I wouldn't say so. They claim something similar for drones, but not for missiles, especially when there are ballistic missile. Some Russian drones don't even have warhead, so it is better to allow them fly longer and fall from fuel lack rather than spend precious SAM missile
4.likely it increased for last years, but not so much in comparison to cruise. It seems so because last half of year Russians film much more strikes with UAV, where Iskander is a main weapon. Like people remember strike in Poltava or some on airports, because there is verifiable proofs, rather than unfilmed ones on some bases in Ukraine, where they claimed 4 UA generals and Syrsky killed. Anyway, Ukraine works to reduce UAVs number
4. We should remember that the drones still cost money(about 40000 dollars in the cheapest estimation) , whereas warhead is smaller than the shell or missile with the same size. They are much easier to intersept, especially in the SAM dense front area, whereas to attack Moskov they fly through less dense border territories . Attacking troops is ineffective, big groups are hit with missiles and Himars, instantly kill many people without time to react. Drones fly longer and usually still are detected . Also they are not able to destroy significant part of big building, destroying basements instantly, so many drones will kill small amounts of Russian. Russians moved their big easy flammable depots away after Himars, covered with more SaMs and masked. Last big depot, hit in Voronez , was masked in the forests. Smaller are harder to detect, whereas it isn't the fact that drone warhead is enough to detonate depot, hidden in building with harder walls. Oil depots are hit quite regularly in the Russian area around the Donbas, even recently something was hit in Donetsk
5. Partially agree, that rise the flag in Kinburn is stupid idea. But, sending all GUR in Pokrovsk isn't much better. They aren't field troops to hold the line, whereas there is the biggest concentration of FPV, drones, aviation and troops there, so it is much harder to mess in their rear. There are high effective units like batalyon Skala or 3 brigade, but even they are used for contr attacks or as defensive troops to support organised retreat. GUR is good when skill of each soldier matterbs, not for the battle, dominated by artillery, drones and bombs, where effective contr attack includes coordination rather than close combat skills of each trooper
As was explained before, the plan is called "Black Hole", – "my dear supreme commander my former troops I sent to liberate Kursk oblast have liberated 10 villages, but lost somewhere in the process, and lost those 10 villages too, so I need fresh troops to liberate those again".
Almost one month passed on your bet on Pokrovsk, we agreed on two. At least you have not objected. I am still pondering what was actually the value of your bet.
Generally I find nothing funny in the wars, especially when one nation initiates full scale war to invade and eliminate another. But even less funny I find civil people supporting such agression, for in their sick fantasy it is somehow justified. It is akin to a maniac who would stab an unsuspecting person with a knife, and then do it 10 times, and then cut victim to pieces and throw into the river, and then say how funny it was. Please, it is not funny.
You know, sometimes it is better to keep mouth shut: funny and war in same sentece… omg
If you have seen footages of ru fortifications in Kursk, you would never have asked such “funny” question: 2-3 stored underground fortification full of soldiers, foods and ammo, located on a hill, can resist for months… especially if attackers cannot use bunker bombs and similar stuff.
What is a problem with isolated troops? Check Napoleon wars in Europe 1813-14: there were around 65-75k his troops blocked in Poland and Germany. Most of them were holding their cities for 8-10 months and Austrian/Ru troops had no probs with that
Oh yes, red lines... I wonder if Zelensky & Syrsky have a roadmap of Russian red lines to cross.. How many of these even remain? What would be the last one (of those potentially doable by Ukraine) - attacking Pudding?
UA has no red lines, but Russia has red lines and West is afraiding of crossing them and do it slowly. So if UA cross some, then West has more courage to cross another lines. Hopefully long range rocket to russia will be approved soon. Too late but better as never.
It is a sketch really, he hasn't lost his humor yet. And there were quite a few such mockings along the way. I think he really wants to make major P. mad about it.
Thanks for the update, though it was lacking good news. The Gen Stab U needs to get its act together thats for sure. Otherwise one would really hope for some use of whatever reserves exists. This seems to be some kind of fall offensive, but well the Russians are always on the offensive. Regarding bridges I distinctly remember you said Russia had lots of them. Case in point.
I dunno about the Seim crossings - the orc push south from Korenovo feels forced, as if they're desperate to re-establish a reliable logistics route. Be like the FSB to order troops into a pocket.
A counteroffensive was always inevitable, the question is how much it costs. 1,000 square kilometers in Kursk at a cost of 100 soldiers a day isn't going to be sustainable without boosting mobilization or sacrificing a lot of conscripts. Every seemingly big push is followed by weeks of grind.
Question on my mind right now is the feasibility of attaching an AMRAAM to a drone. If there's a technical means of getting a targeting signal to the missile from a Patriot radar, a drone might be able to lurk in orc airspace until a Sukhoi flies by and catch it by surprise. Maybe.
Is not AMRAAM to big for a dron? then it must be big dron, which means quite expensive and easily detect? Also biggest problem is not to put launchers to front they can be hide, but radars is bigger and when active easy detectable.
Drones can come in all sizes - including jets. Bigger does mean more visible to radar, but slow-flying drones are hard for Doppler systems to pick up. Some of Ukraine’s larger drones might, by taking on less fuel, be able to loft a missile.
Radars are clearly on enough to provide raid warning. A larger drone put-putting around at low altitude on Ukraine’s side of the lines could potentially, theoretically, enable a faster response time without risking a ground-based launcher - also get a bit more range.
Main goal is to threaten glide bombs with something, force the orcs to pull back or be more cautious. Might save lives at the margin.
Ukrainians even have a good engine for such concept, that is used in Kizilelma.
That by the way I think is a bit wrong concept, it is too slow and heavy.
The full weight of such UAV needs to be around 4-4.5 tonns. Length 11 meters. So its quite big, maybe half the size of F16, in terms of volume/weight.
So it would be expensive, and thus targeted with SAMs, and thus needs max stealth + supersonic capability + own radar + degree of autonomous capability + it may indeed need a connected fighter jet for control functions + this fighter jet may need to be a two seater to have weapon officer ready. This may be a good answer to R-37s, but ... at least two years of heavy focused development and production.
Just bear in mind the cost of each AMRAAM, you could not risk that to a low chance of whether or not your UAV will survive.
I’m aware of those concepts, and they’re set to be huge in the future.
For Ukraine in the short term, afull-on companion drone is overkill. Literally just need a low-cost, low-visibility booster for an AAM. Older Soviet models might work too. You send up the drone near the front as soon as a raid alert comes in, try to catch the bombers with a missile coming at them from out of nowhere right as they come into make the drop.
With luck, it looks like friendly fire…
How much does fuel weigh? I don’t know the weight tradeoff between warhead and gas, but a long-range attack drone might be able to tote a single missile. Or a propeller trainer converted into a drone.
Dear Andrew, you have to consider that SU-30 and SU-35 especially are very good planes, fast planes, maneurable. To get AMRAAM in range of "no-escape zone" for them could well require 30-40 km distance. They move in at high speed and move out. I do not see any combinations possible to reliably, at least 30% of time to be able to strike them with air to air. I was pondering on different concepts, including high altitude balloons with launch containers, one way long range hunter-killer drone that would follow jet even up to their home airfield, a kind of making kill inevitable. Maybe I am missing something. Maybe Tom has some different view of that.
They are indeed - an old dream of mine is a Flanker type with fully modern avionics. Beautiful aircraft.
But any large aircraft approaching an ordnance release point at high speed - 1,200km/h minimum - with a load of bombs isn't turning quickly. They release bombs from about 60km behind the front.
Say a drone is detected by a search radar 250km out, just enough to estimate the target area. a drone launched near the front, flying low at just 300km/h, can fly 50km in the time the Sukhois go 200km. That could, in theory, put a drone almost underneath the jet as it is preparing to drop bombs, flying straight and level. Even if it drops and turns, the missile may be too close.
Can't waste AMRAAMs, but could set a trap: create a target too juicy for the enemy to pass up, and have a couple drones already moving into enemy airspace. It only has to work once or twice before enemy jets have to shift their routine.
I'm also 100% behind long-range hunter-killer drones chasing jets back to their base. I wondered about balloons, too, but would like to be able to essentially imitate a SAMbush. Is there a sweet spot with drone size where it's survivable but can loft a load? Maybe an AIM-9 would serve better?
I totally agree. This is a question I have been asking myself for a while, probably naively, but is it not possible to equip drones, such as the Baba Yaga for example, with Manpads? They must be able to support the weight, 16 to 20 kg? For more autonomy and discretion they could also mix it with a drivable balloon... Same for drone hunting, we see the Israeli smash-Dragon equipped with a high-precision rifle, but it should be possible to replace it with a shotgun, or even two.
That definitely ought to be an option, I’d think. Kind of like making an aerial mine.
I’ve also been wondering why old out of service jets in US boneyards aren’t being converted to drones. They’ve only got to make one flight, acting as a booster for some air to air missiles. If they only eat an S-300, that’s one less SAM in the inventory.
It's a bit of science fiction but that's kind of the idea I had. I think the technology exists today, armed balloon drones used to "mine" the air corridors most frequented by bombers, or helicopters near the front lines.
Tom: any word or movement of the remaining $6.1 Billion in unspent American aid money for Ukraine??? I mean DAMN....WTF!!!!! There are 18 days left. Take the fracking money and give them 200 Artillery, 120 M1 Abrams, 200 M2/3 Bradleys and all the spares and ammo they could use for the next year or two. That would be progress.......
Sorry, unable to follow everything. Have heard something like 'they're trying to re-arrange' and 'don't worry'...but, sincerely: it doesn't matter who sits in the White House, it's all the same incompetence, and I'm giving up.
Dear Tom, thanks, however unpleasant are such developments. It seems to me that ZSU was relatively lacking HIMARS ammo, since around second half of August. And only a day or two it is back in stock or something.
I have my known explanation of decreasing Himars and Co. activities. Iskanders took out 10+Himars, M270s and other long range systems last weeks. The fact that ORYX is not reporting such losses does not mean they dod not take place.
Maybe, but unlikely. I would not go into all details, but if you mean supposed Kursk strikes, it instead had effects elsewhere. I would say a pattern similar to Nov-Dec 2023. We would see in the next few days how it will turn out. Also I did recently post a total list of US equipment deliveries, there were all Himars listed for all time, it was 40 if I remember well, as of Sep 6th. Surely, some were a replacement of losses.
Ah, so, you mean Oryx is the Ministry of Defence in Moscow?
Or could it be the the Keystone Cops in Moscow can't provide any kind of videos showing the destruction of as many M142s and/or M270s as you claim (and 99% of the few it has shown are either no M142/M270s, or decoys), although its targeting for Iskander-Ms (and BM-27s and BM-30s etc.) is depending on the Iskander's targeting system (see UAVs equipped with video-cameras) - which simply means there is no trace of evidence the VSRF did destroy as many as you claim?
....in between others, because the Russians can consider themselves lucky 'the West' is as plain stupid as to continue NOT supplying as many HIMARS and MLRS rounds as Ukraine needs. And thus, most of the time, the launchers simply lack ammo.
>> GRU
- GUR
Thx for heads-up on this: have already corrected (seems, my auto-correct is correcting any of my 'GUR' inputs to 'GRU').
That said....is, actually, 'still the same' (so also in regards of 'efficiency').
One (first) instance is still not corrected.
OK, there you are... corrected that too, and added an explanation... hope, that's making things dramatically different and everybody is feeling far better now.
Thanks. Nothing is making people happier during a war than the ability to change the world. Even if it's just the order of two letters somewhere on the internet.
Changing the letters does not change the essence. GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate). GUR (Main Directorate Intelligence). The essence of these departments is one and the same - intelligence. Also, their school is one still old Soviet. The same applies to the FSB and SBU.
The letters are just making it easier to remember who's who. GRU is RU. GUR is UkR. :)
Why has such a powerful organization as the GUR not destroyed a single person close to Putin in all these years and a whole decade? For example, Israel, together with the United States, killed the official terrorist Qassem Soleimani and the nuclear physicist responsible for Iran’s nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. They did it, but the Ukrainian special services did not. Why? Good question, isn't it? Think about it.
Yes, there is a very simple answer.
In a recent interview lavrov said, amost winking, "the West knows well where the red lines are". So (again exercising the simple reading between the lines) it means, what was happening up till now is not in any way crossing of those and not even close to that, including UA actions. Means also bombing oil plants or incursion into Kursk. And this means West indeed knows well and keeps to those lines very precisely. What could be that? Ballistic strikes? Fleet? F16? Nah, the only thing that was never touched is a personal safety of major P. gang members. So this is the only red line there. And it is logical, if you do not have illusions about major P. gang and its psychology. Never ever anything of country's destiny, people's lives or anything like that disturbed them. Besides their personal wealth and well-being and how those "circumstances" (including people) affect those. Minor temporary losses of profits do not count, as long as there are more profits in sight.
Quite disappointed with the news, I have to admit (regarding Glushkovo area). Not many bright spots in this report, I see
Many thanks again for a swift update, Tom. Even if no good news for Ukraine into it, is very welcome to be aware of all the latest developments. Seems that Kurks’ Bulge is going to dire straits from now on.
Excellent report. Lack of lessons learnt this late in the war; not good 🙁.
Hoping somehow, sometime, someone finally gets it into their head "hey, we could totally learn from this!"
Institutional inertia is a real problem, even during the conduct of a war
Thanks Tom for another clear update. So, VKRS is trying to regain initiative in Kursk sector?
The lack of activity of Bradleys and IFV on the ZSU side, could be a combination of the west not delivering them in the needed quantities and the VSRF finally hitting the right places of ammo and equipment stocks?
PSU, by their own reports, are intercepting always 90% of the drones and missiles that are launching at them.
What about Iskander production? It's seems to me that are more strikes now than in any period of time before.
What if the 144 drones the PSU launch against the internal oblast of Russia where instead lauched against suspected concentration of troops, command post and POL of the Tsentr group? Or the GUR attack against the sea platform, redirect all the special forces to counter the advances in prokhorovsk? GUR personel really take a toll in keeping the frontlines stable for months in 2023.
Why Ukraine are trying to do Hollywood style operations or seeking nice fist page "bold strikes" when it have urgent, field needs?
Looks like when the Boers lost their war against the british. Yeap, the history remember their courage and guerrilla táctics. But South África was british land for 60 more years... Or, more close to me, when we praise argentine pilots for their daring strikes on the Royal Navy... but Malvinas is still under british rule...
I am not Tom, but I can answer some questions
1. Tom wrote about it, starting from controffensive last year. Russian army is built to attack, so even their defense strategy includes permanent contr attacks to slow down the offensive. Now they just made more organized one. There is also info that they previously hitted some UA drone units
2. Main Bradley operator is 47th brigade that now is in the rear. I also don't understand how did you found it out, because Ukranians post IFV usage much rarer, whereas Russian show only their destruction. There are also plenty fpv near Pokrovsk too. Obviously there aren't enough ifv, but I don't see any reduction of total IFV activity
3. I wouldn't say so. They claim something similar for drones, but not for missiles, especially when there are ballistic missile. Some Russian drones don't even have warhead, so it is better to allow them fly longer and fall from fuel lack rather than spend precious SAM missile
4.likely it increased for last years, but not so much in comparison to cruise. It seems so because last half of year Russians film much more strikes with UAV, where Iskander is a main weapon. Like people remember strike in Poltava or some on airports, because there is verifiable proofs, rather than unfilmed ones on some bases in Ukraine, where they claimed 4 UA generals and Syrsky killed. Anyway, Ukraine works to reduce UAVs number
4. We should remember that the drones still cost money(about 40000 dollars in the cheapest estimation) , whereas warhead is smaller than the shell or missile with the same size. They are much easier to intersept, especially in the SAM dense front area, whereas to attack Moskov they fly through less dense border territories . Attacking troops is ineffective, big groups are hit with missiles and Himars, instantly kill many people without time to react. Drones fly longer and usually still are detected . Also they are not able to destroy significant part of big building, destroying basements instantly, so many drones will kill small amounts of Russian. Russians moved their big easy flammable depots away after Himars, covered with more SaMs and masked. Last big depot, hit in Voronez , was masked in the forests. Smaller are harder to detect, whereas it isn't the fact that drone warhead is enough to detonate depot, hidden in building with harder walls. Oil depots are hit quite regularly in the Russian area around the Donbas, even recently something was hit in Donetsk
5. Partially agree, that rise the flag in Kinburn is stupid idea. But, sending all GUR in Pokrovsk isn't much better. They aren't field troops to hold the line, whereas there is the biggest concentration of FPV, drones, aviation and troops there, so it is much harder to mess in their rear. There are high effective units like batalyon Skala or 3 brigade, but even they are used for contr attacks or as defensive troops to support organised retreat. GUR is good when skill of each soldier matterbs, not for the battle, dominated by artillery, drones and bombs, where effective contr attack includes coordination rather than close combat skills of each trooper
Please, grab them by the collar and shake them hard. Thank you so very much.
Also ask Sirski what was the military plan for Kursk. Like what he was expecting to do after the first 2 weeks.
As was explained before, the plan is called "Black Hole", – "my dear supreme commander my former troops I sent to liberate Kursk oblast have liberated 10 villages, but lost somewhere in the process, and lost those 10 villages too, so I need fresh troops to liberate those again".
Almost one month passed on your bet on Pokrovsk, we agreed on two. At least you have not objected. I am still pondering what was actually the value of your bet.
The bet was for Pokrovsk not being reinforced. I have mentioned that it can be kept if Ukraine sends 2 brigades.
Ukraine has sent elements of 3 brigades ( not sure of total numbers) and the russian progres has moved from West to South and East.
Funy how the Russian units are still present inside the Kursk perimeter and being rescued after 3 weeks.
Or how the Ukrainian perimeter is being compressed.
That's quite a nice plan to capture an area and not clean it or fortify it.
Generally I find nothing funny in the wars, especially when one nation initiates full scale war to invade and eliminate another. But even less funny I find civil people supporting such agression, for in their sick fantasy it is somehow justified. It is akin to a maniac who would stab an unsuspecting person with a knife, and then do it 10 times, and then cut victim to pieces and throw into the river, and then say how funny it was. Please, it is not funny.
You know, sometimes it is better to keep mouth shut: funny and war in same sentece… omg
If you have seen footages of ru fortifications in Kursk, you would never have asked such “funny” question: 2-3 stored underground fortification full of soldiers, foods and ammo, located on a hill, can resist for months… especially if attackers cannot use bunker bombs and similar stuff.
I make fun of PR war plans not about actual fighting or the soldiers.
A good planner should have been accustomed to the Russian force size and its practice of fortifying.
What is a problem with isolated troops? Check Napoleon wars in Europe 1813-14: there were around 65-75k his troops blocked in Poland and Germany. Most of them were holding their cities for 8-10 months and Austrian/Ru troops had no probs with that
Zelensky: everything is going according to Ukraine's plan https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1834201907285414044
Déjà vu ?
Well, the Kursk offensive is technically a special military operation, so how can it go anything else than according to plan?
Especially, if it is a secret plan :)))
Plan was
cross anther red line(s)
force russia to send unit to Kursk instead of UA
force Russia to use glide bombs in Kursk
make some econimical shame to RU
kuddle RU Unit in big numbers
From this list at least first 4 are more or less done. 5 can maybe Tom says if it was achieved or not.
Oh yes, red lines... I wonder if Zelensky & Syrsky have a roadmap of Russian red lines to cross.. How many of these even remain? What would be the last one (of those potentially doable by Ukraine) - attacking Pudding?
UA has no red lines, but Russia has red lines and West is afraiding of crossing them and do it slowly. So if UA cross some, then West has more courage to cross another lines. Hopefully long range rocket to russia will be approved soon. Too late but better as never.
Really, what idiot there is advising him any more?
Haven't we had enough of 'everything is going according to plan' - from Putin, already?
It is a sketch really, he hasn't lost his humor yet. And there were quite a few such mockings along the way. I think he really wants to make major P. mad about it.
The war has descended to the level of deadly farce, so here’s this: “I Am GRU!”
Thanks for the update, though it was lacking good news. The Gen Stab U needs to get its act together thats for sure. Otherwise one would really hope for some use of whatever reserves exists. This seems to be some kind of fall offensive, but well the Russians are always on the offensive. Regarding bridges I distinctly remember you said Russia had lots of them. Case in point.
I dunno about the Seim crossings - the orc push south from Korenovo feels forced, as if they're desperate to re-establish a reliable logistics route. Be like the FSB to order troops into a pocket.
A counteroffensive was always inevitable, the question is how much it costs. 1,000 square kilometers in Kursk at a cost of 100 soldiers a day isn't going to be sustainable without boosting mobilization or sacrificing a lot of conscripts. Every seemingly big push is followed by weeks of grind.
Question on my mind right now is the feasibility of attaching an AMRAAM to a drone. If there's a technical means of getting a targeting signal to the missile from a Patriot radar, a drone might be able to lurk in orc airspace until a Sukhoi flies by and catch it by surprise. Maybe.
Is not AMRAAM to big for a dron? then it must be big dron, which means quite expensive and easily detect? Also biggest problem is not to put launchers to front they can be hide, but radars is bigger and when active easy detectable.
Drones can come in all sizes - including jets. Bigger does mean more visible to radar, but slow-flying drones are hard for Doppler systems to pick up. Some of Ukraine’s larger drones might, by taking on less fuel, be able to loft a missile.
Radars are clearly on enough to provide raid warning. A larger drone put-putting around at low altitude on Ukraine’s side of the lines could potentially, theoretically, enable a faster response time without risking a ground-based launcher - also get a bit more range.
Main goal is to threaten glide bombs with something, force the orcs to pull back or be more cautious. Might save lives at the margin.
At the moment I do not think it is possible, espesially because there are many ingridients missing. However, Saab was developing a concept for exactly this idea, within internal bays for two AMRAAMs or Meteors for that matter. https://www.twz.com/air/this-is-saabs-concept-for-a-supersonic-stealthy-loyal-wingman-drone
Ukrainians even have a good engine for such concept, that is used in Kizilelma.
That by the way I think is a bit wrong concept, it is too slow and heavy.
The full weight of such UAV needs to be around 4-4.5 tonns. Length 11 meters. So its quite big, maybe half the size of F16, in terms of volume/weight.
So it would be expensive, and thus targeted with SAMs, and thus needs max stealth + supersonic capability + own radar + degree of autonomous capability + it may indeed need a connected fighter jet for control functions + this fighter jet may need to be a two seater to have weapon officer ready. This may be a good answer to R-37s, but ... at least two years of heavy focused development and production.
Just bear in mind the cost of each AMRAAM, you could not risk that to a low chance of whether or not your UAV will survive.
I’m aware of those concepts, and they’re set to be huge in the future.
For Ukraine in the short term, afull-on companion drone is overkill. Literally just need a low-cost, low-visibility booster for an AAM. Older Soviet models might work too. You send up the drone near the front as soon as a raid alert comes in, try to catch the bombers with a missile coming at them from out of nowhere right as they come into make the drop.
With luck, it looks like friendly fire…
How much does fuel weigh? I don’t know the weight tradeoff between warhead and gas, but a long-range attack drone might be able to tote a single missile. Or a propeller trainer converted into a drone.
Dear Andrew, you have to consider that SU-30 and SU-35 especially are very good planes, fast planes, maneurable. To get AMRAAM in range of "no-escape zone" for them could well require 30-40 km distance. They move in at high speed and move out. I do not see any combinations possible to reliably, at least 30% of time to be able to strike them with air to air. I was pondering on different concepts, including high altitude balloons with launch containers, one way long range hunter-killer drone that would follow jet even up to their home airfield, a kind of making kill inevitable. Maybe I am missing something. Maybe Tom has some different view of that.
They are indeed - an old dream of mine is a Flanker type with fully modern avionics. Beautiful aircraft.
But any large aircraft approaching an ordnance release point at high speed - 1,200km/h minimum - with a load of bombs isn't turning quickly. They release bombs from about 60km behind the front.
Say a drone is detected by a search radar 250km out, just enough to estimate the target area. a drone launched near the front, flying low at just 300km/h, can fly 50km in the time the Sukhois go 200km. That could, in theory, put a drone almost underneath the jet as it is preparing to drop bombs, flying straight and level. Even if it drops and turns, the missile may be too close.
Can't waste AMRAAMs, but could set a trap: create a target too juicy for the enemy to pass up, and have a couple drones already moving into enemy airspace. It only has to work once or twice before enemy jets have to shift their routine.
I'm also 100% behind long-range hunter-killer drones chasing jets back to their base. I wondered about balloons, too, but would like to be able to essentially imitate a SAMbush. Is there a sweet spot with drone size where it's survivable but can loft a load? Maybe an AIM-9 would serve better?
I totally agree. This is a question I have been asking myself for a while, probably naively, but is it not possible to equip drones, such as the Baba Yaga for example, with Manpads? They must be able to support the weight, 16 to 20 kg? For more autonomy and discretion they could also mix it with a drivable balloon... Same for drone hunting, we see the Israeli smash-Dragon equipped with a high-precision rifle, but it should be possible to replace it with a shotgun, or even two.
That definitely ought to be an option, I’d think. Kind of like making an aerial mine.
I’ve also been wondering why old out of service jets in US boneyards aren’t being converted to drones. They’ve only got to make one flight, acting as a booster for some air to air missiles. If they only eat an S-300, that’s one less SAM in the inventory.
It's a bit of science fiction but that's kind of the idea I had. I think the technology exists today, armed balloon drones used to "mine" the air corridors most frequented by bombers, or helicopters near the front lines.
Victory has many parents, but defeat is always an orphan.
Tom: any word or movement of the remaining $6.1 Billion in unspent American aid money for Ukraine??? I mean DAMN....WTF!!!!! There are 18 days left. Take the fracking money and give them 200 Artillery, 120 M1 Abrams, 200 M2/3 Bradleys and all the spares and ammo they could use for the next year or two. That would be progress.......
Sorry, unable to follow everything. Have heard something like 'they're trying to re-arrange' and 'don't worry'...but, sincerely: it doesn't matter who sits in the White House, it's all the same incompetence, and I'm giving up.
Typical bureaucracy and inefficient mechanisms without a sense of urgency, I would guess
Thanks for this report Tom not the best