Ukraine War, 12 October 2024: Hail to the Chief!
Hello everybody!
Just some analysis of few interesting thingies between latest developments…
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AIR/MISSILE WARFARE
Rather estranging but: once again, the VKS lost a fighter-bomber and once again, there are no such Ukrainian claims. Instead, and once again, it’s the ‘unofficial’ Russians who are reporting about this.
That said, they do not say anything about where or how: only that a Su-34 was shot down and the crew of two killed. Gauging by all the troubles this type is meanwhile known to have whenever facing PAC-2/3 Patriot SAMs… well, it’s quite likely ‘on hand’ what has got it…
And, because that is so cool, then this morning, another Su-34 was shot down – and this time 50km behind the frontline, reportedly by an F-16AM of the PSU. The Russians have meanwhile confirmed that loss: they are not talking about the reason, though…
Well, if truth, then perhaps somebody decided that the time is to take gloves off, and risk one of F-16s over the frontline, instead of letting them get shot down by PSU’s own SAMs. I do find this a sound solution. Was about the time.
This would also explain all the recent ZSU strikes on Russian SAM-positions behind the frontline (also well inside Russia). The only thing making me skeptical is the reported range: ‘50km’ would be something like ‘absolute max-max’ of the stuff like AIM-120B - the principal (medium range) air-to-air missile known to have been delivered to the PSU by now - under combat conditions preevalent in Ukraine. Perhaps somebody ‘rounded up a bit’? Can happen in excitement of the moment…
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Elsewhere as of this morning, and except for the Marine Oil Terminal in Feodosia, another Russian fuel dump is enthusiastically burning. This time, reportedly, the one in Rovenky, in the occupied Luhansk Oblast. That’s at least what the GenStab-U is claiming. According to Kyiv Independent, this is the 33rd facility of this kind hit since March this year.
Ah yes, and sat photos have revealed why Ukraine has recently targeted the Khanska/Khanskaya AB: because the VKS’ security is still so good that they’re still stacking huge piles of wooden crates with bombs right next to the tarmac of that air base.
Always comforting to see the Keystone Cops in Moscow continue to outmatch those of the GenStab-U - and that by a wide margin.
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GROUND WAR
…where, while I’m at the GenStab-U: newest RUMINT in this regards is that the principal reason for both the existence of these ‘Groups of Forces’ of the ZSU (the Ukrainians are abbreviating them with OSGs and OTGs: that’s the command level between brigades and the GenStab-U in Kyiv; see, instances like ‘Khortsya’, ‘Tavryia’ and ‘Odesa’ etc.), and for establishment of ever additional new brigades is….
(drums)
...(quote) ‘a large number of old, useless generals’ still serving in the ZSU. These need some place to work, so are ‘parked’ there. Is said to be the reason why the GenStab-U is not expanding headquarters of multiple large brigades into divisions: it knows the generals in question are incompetent, and could easily ruin the units in question. So, ‘better’ to sideline them where they’re of no importance – because these OSGs and OTGs are simply playing no role in command and control whatsoever, except for enabling Syrsky and the GenStab-U to continue micromanaging all the while…
What a sound solution for something that’s, actually, no problem at all. Whoever is incompetent and/or deemed unable to do his actual job: why not re-training him or her for some other purpose?
For example: for de-mining. Even if each one removes just one mine a day, that’s still 365 mines a year. Now multiply that number by number of ‘surplus generals’ – and keep in mind: de-miners in Kherson and eastern Kharkiv are regularly removing 80,000+ Russian mines from 2-3 hectares of fields there…
But, of course, I’m digressing and rambling…
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Kursk… for two days now, a pitched battle is fought for Lyubimovka. Essentially, the Russians are throwing everything they can into assaults on ZSU positions in and around that village. At least five ‘boxes’ (see: tanks or other armoured fighting vehicles, all ‘modified’ through addition of extensive cope cages) have been knocked out during just one of Russian assaults yesterday. As of this morning, another 22 were knocked out. The ZSU even managed to recover several positions lost the last few days.
There are no news from Zeleyonyi Shlyakh, but the situation is similar in the Novoivanovka: yesterday, a ‘severe crisis’ was reported from there, as the Russians entered the village. Meanwhile, the ZSU counterattacked, recovered the place and is mopping up. The battle is far from being over, of course.
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In other news… today, I’ll focus on the Pokrovsk Sector, because I think I’ve under-analysed that one by quite a wide margin…
Seems, many of Ukrainians are agreeing with each other in regards of one conclusion: the Russians have re-focused all their attention on the Kurakhove sector, and are attacking there with everything they’ve got.
Somehow, all the related chatter still failed to reach the GenStab-U and so it happened this was taken so much by surprise, the 15th and 30th Motor-Rifle Brigades, VSRF have not only managed to cross both the Zhuravka and Kazeny Torets Rivers, but the ZSU left them create a bridgehead each, which now must be expected to enable them to continue via Promin and Moskovske for Myrnohrad.
Really, I’m so surprised, can’t say. There’s simply nothing better but for just one person in Kyiv to be responsible for all of this. Forget all the babbling about ‘team’, and ‘delegating tasks’: that’s not how a military service is supposed to work!
Of course, those of us aware of consequence of such a (mis)organisation might wonder how should one person in Kyiv find out what of developments somewhere out there in the….what was the name again? ….ah yes, the Kurakhove area ….is important and what is not. Especially when one patches up a frontline with disparate battalions from multiple different brigades that never even trained together, and thus creates a situation where the battalion-commanders in question are too busy just commanding their troops and coordinating with neighbours to their left and right, but to report up the entire chain of command? …while, as described above, the HQ Khortsya – the instance actually supposed to be responsible for reporting such developments is, essentially, consisting of ‘parked’ generals that can’t do more but watch TV?
But hey: never mind. There’s nothing matching ideal solutions by the GenStab-U (registered trademark)…
Instead, I cannot but observe that I do find something else about the situation in this sector ‘ironic’. It’s that about whenever left to operate as compact brigades, ZSU units are really smashing the Russians in huge numbers. While, if patched up by single battalions from diverse brigades – then not.
And so, except for the 46th Airborne, which has delivered some really spectacular videos, the last two weeks or so, just for example, check the battle fought by the 15th NG Kara-Dag against the 27th Motor-Rifle Division in Selydove. Over the last week alone, this brigade alone must’ve smashed about two dozens of major Russian assaults. Pay attention: a single brigade against a reinforced division, and still successful.
…it’s just a theory of mine, nothing substantiated, but: considering circumstances in the GenStab-U in Kyiv, only one conclusion about reasons for these successes is coming to my mind.
Because Syrsky hasn’t got any opportunity to become involved…
Which reminds me that, actually, I’m almost in tears and cannot but emphasise that the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deserves nothing else but all our empathy and sympathies. Mind that he’s so busy micromanaging battles in corners of Ukraine nobody can find on a map, that he has also missed his opportunity when the State Procurement Agency messed up with every single acquisition of artillery ammunition; then he didn’t know there was an opportunity to get a cut when a general of the same Agency pocketed a bribe of US$750,000, was dismissed and arrested (though… thinking of it… what a bloody amateur: just 750,000?!? …why not rounding that up to 1 million?!?); and, he is still doing nothing against the HQ Ground Forces ZSU blocking every single ‘unauthorised’ (read: nobody was bribed) acquisition of UAV-parts.
….which reminds me that it’s great that under Syrsky the UAVs are actually supposed to be operated by a separate branch of the armed forces, so the HQ Ground Forces cannot mess around with such processes…
Really, nothing is matching situations where there is one, super-responsible and hyper-competent general at the top, the great leader – and thus in charge of this bardak abbreviated with ZSU…
Hail to the Chief!
There are some variables in the narrative of the possible kill of the SU-30 by an Ukrainian F-16, which I like to address.
There is he report that it was behind the frontline, which is an undefined term in this conflict. Once it was easy, it was the contact line of ground forces, what is it now with long range air defence systems, drones and a variable contact line? Not more than a guess on the map, depending which side takes this guess.
The effective envelope of a missile depends on many variable, the speed of the launch aircraft, the pressure altitude it is launched, the pressure altitude of the target and its speed, and even the wind aloft can influence the range. It all breaks down to the two extreme scenarios: Unfavorable is low altitude of shooter and target , the target moving the same direction as the shooter having lower speed than the target, resulting in a bad tail chase. The most range will result from target and shooter at high altitude and high speed in a pure head on.
Now we can guess on what parameters published max and min ranges depend on.
Thanks for your work!
Thanks for the update. You wrote: «Always comforting to see the Keystone Cops in Moscow continue to outmatch those of the GenStab-U - and that by a wide margin.»… I think this is the closest thing to praise I of the GenStab U I have seen from you in the last months…