You missed the simplest explanation for the lack of secondary (non -radar) information. EW and cyber. But let's say it was available.
The other simple explanation is that there's a big difference between a SAM battery in Kyiv having a radar track to work with all the way from the border and just knowing that "there are missiles coming from this general direction". The radar track is instantly transmitted to the IADS (hence the I for Integrated). Information from people being overflown by a cruise missile and reporting it has a strong lag, so the track is many minutes old by the time it gets into the IADS C4ISR system, so the reaction time for the IADS goes down vs not having a corridor.
Thanks for the analysis. It sounds not good. Further changes in production and mindset are needed that usually takes years, while another attack is due practically any time.
Meanwhile, the Russians have a rare opportunity to hit the opposing command hub real good, and they use it for a terror strike that doesn't help them militarily, but is bound to cause outrage and increase support for their enemy.
Not necessarily. If Ukraine is perceived to be squandering integrated air and missile defense assets, western countries will not be inclined to send more of these, irrespective of Russia’s barbarism. Rhetoric of unwavering support will continue, but that’s free; missiles not so much.
If i understand these matters correctly, 2 months ago in his article https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-18-may-2024-part-1-air?utm_source=publication-search Tom proposed a solution for the recon drones. I allow myself to quote the part from his article, relevant to your question: "... This is a problem I do not expect to be solved until somebody does something the Italians were offering already back in 1980s, but nobody was even thinking about paying attention about: launching a mass production of something in style of the Otomatic and/or Draco - a 76mm gun (or similar calibre) on the chassis of OF-40 or Leopard tank, or the Centauro armoured car. Such weapons have an effective engagement range of about 15,000m, which would enable them to target Russian reconnaissance UAVs that are meanwhile regularly operating at altitudes above 2,000-3,000 metres..." Further in the article, Tom explains that ".... the Italian-designed 76mm gun in question is in widespread service with dozens of navies around the world (including the US Navy). Multiple fire-control systems for it are available, as are large stocks of ammunition…"
The proposed solution does not sound so complicated, which makes me wonder: why nobody has paid attention to it so far? Dear Tom, may be this is another question for your Q&A? To me, it (i mean Russian recon drones above 2km) appears to be (one of the most if not) THE most significant issue to be solved asap. Last but not least, big thanks to Tom for his very long and detailed analysis of events on the 8th of July. Your work is hugely appreciated, even if many first reactions in case you start criticizing big style are unpleasant.
Ukraine still has this old thing. And it's good to 5 kilometers of altitude. Russians have them as well. But for some reason both sides are using them in a direct fire role against light armor instead of against air breathing threats. No answer as to why. Just what it is.
The 76mm gun is not the best for this task, as I explained multiple times. It's more like a huge revolver, where you have to stop operation and reload after 5-6 fast shots.
A 35mm gun like the Oerlikon in the Gepard and the incoming Skynex is much better for this task.
Not only this, but also in response to the OP question of why the 76mm is not put into production boils down to simple economics & procurement.
No company is going to sink millions into a project that may or may not sell. At some point this war will end and then the question becomes, 'how do we (the manufacturer) recoup investment and profit?'
While it may seem obvious that the future of warfare is drone/anti drone tech, this conflicts with modern realities of military budgets - never enough money so that "nice to have" takes a backseat to "need to have".
"If our opponent does not have Zara or equivalent drones, would it still be prudent to purchase said 76mm system?"
Common sense may scream 'yes' but realities about procurement - and realize unit purchase is only the beginning, sustainment, logistics, etc must be maintained - quickly run up cost estimates to where "let's wait and see" takes on important meaning. And all the while the manufacturer is left waiting until it becomes a case of, "well, we aren't seeing a line up of sales so park this project in the 'hold pending review' and we'll relook at it later.
OTOH off the shelf systems like the poster above mentioned (Oerlikon, etc) become stopgap measures instead.
Thank you again for your analysis of the situation in Ukraine. The central media of Ukraine often translate your reviews into Ukrainian and publish them. Will they publish this review? And then we will get an answer to the question of freedom of speech.
Depends on media. But generally it is possible. Tom's critique isn't even worse than Besugla posts Even very proZekevsky TSN published Bild article by scandal "expert" Repke about 8 July, where he actually said the same as Tom about a number of missiles that went through air defense (of course without analytics of reasons ). Only stop point could be President straight critique but I haven't found any except one sentence in first post in the series.
Besugla gets shit on by everyone who isn't lazy, sometimes I think they broadcast her opinion just to publicly show what "bad people say" and to demonstrate that criticism is punished. It would be a shame if Toms article gets the same treatment.
A bombed children's hospital is from a PR perspective the thing that is moving public acceptance and demand for such news to the highest points. Will see
There were found Shaheds without warhead. There is also information from Ukrainian drone bloggers that there more ones that fly on 2 and even 3 km altitudes. Russians don't even hide that their main purpose is to waste SAM missiles. Maybe this Shaheds could be simply ignored.
Catch-22. Ignore the shaheds and they will hit important targets at will. Don't ignore the shaheds, and light them up, thus wasting missiles, or at least revealing radar positions to be exploited by the more advanced follow on weapons (routed around them or coming to kill them).
It's classic military thinking: don't present the enemy with a problem to solve, problems have solutions. Present the enemy with a dilemma, where they have to choose between two options both of which are beneficial to you. Actually, that's how seduction in old movies works as well.
I have never been in the military, so excuse my ignorance or rudeness. But isn't the intrinsic issue due to the nature of all military organisations to one degree or another i.e. that all orders must be obeyed without question or looking at it another way the military is a top-down uber hierarchical management structure that discourages subordinates from challenging, discussing, offering alternative solutions etc.
To a degree, yes. Everyone is expected to follow orders from above in the heat of battle. However, there is a difference between
- setting an objective but leaving those below to figure out how to achieve it / micromanaging them all the way,
- welcoming feedback after the battle is over / telling everyone to keep shut up.
It's a matter of your army and doctrine, really. If you don't expect your subordinates to know what they are doing because you have levied / conscripted them en masse, and want to use most of them as cannon fodder anyway, it makes sense to go with the latter approach. If you have the culture established and also invested time in training them into trusty professionals, then go with the former.
I’ve never been in the military either, but I’ve worked for some outstanding leaders in a well run company. The good leaders work hard to make sure that they hear the bad news sooner, rather than later and never shoot the messenger. After a big event, like a maintenance turnaround, there was a review, “What went well, what went poorly, how do we get it right next time?” The leader has to drive the reviews and insist on honest feedback. No one but the person in charge can drive people to make honest evaluations. One boss in particular, who had a reputation as a hard ass, was fine if he asked a question and your answer was, “I don’t know. I’ll find out.” But woe to the fool who tried to BS the guy. That’s what got you raked over the coals.
No, you can execute that but will be overwhelmed with information management as battle conditions change.
Most extreme form was the prussian/German form, where you would end up in front of a military tribunal in case you follow orders and by that leaving out better opportunities. Just always remember that Frederick the Great won his first battle after he fled the battlefield.
To add to that excellent historical tidbit, a similar philosophy was applied in the British Navy during Nelson's times. A commander who missed an opportunity to aggressively attack the enemy and press their advantage had a very high chance of being courts martialed. Orders or no orders.
Modern computer games and also old Soviet commanders. The difference being that modern computer games discount the fog of war, or else the fog of war functions based on preset and understood rules. In real life, it's just fog.
Old Soviet commanders, given a drone video feed assume that they have the best Situational Awareness ever, and it reinforces their Soviet training, which focused on micromanagement through a very rigid chain of command
Well, last year, I mentioned, and even typed in this place, that the only way to counter drones is with other drones. I really expected that they would adapt this technology already since Israel has something similar, and it's a matter of funding. In my unprofessional opinion, this is the only solution that Ukraine could adopt without relying on the slow-moving Westerners.
Obviously, Ukraine has competent people who know how to create and deploy such technology, but they are receiving very little government support. Just imagine 2-3k drones taking out expensive Zala or Orlan drones. Beautiful
I have been wondering since more than a year - and that on both sides - where the hell are drone-based anti-drone systems. And ideally even multi-use drones for such purpose. It is either a lot more complicated than the types of drones already in use, or was simply not considered relevant by the authorities.
My guess is that's quite hard to have situational awareness around your drone visually.
Even HD cameras don't offer enough resolution when trying to hunt your enemy with your eyes, and you don't have a 360 degrees field of view, to watch around your craft while flying.
Thank for such an informative material. Such a news are the worst, because it can't be solved by anything else than personal change of top leadership who ignore the majority of critique. Honestly there were always signs of it since 2022. How many articles I've read about government's almost absent support for drones industry and absence of strategic vision as well as a plethora of "super commanders" who decide that sending antitank,drone and anti drone teams into assault infantry is awesome idea. Last example is a shorting of Russian Zalas,that is usually a private initiative of local brigades FPV teams or civil aviation pilots. It would be much more effective to spread such a method through vertical communication and standardization, but it occurs that only Syrsky has legal rights to do such a things, so only horizontal communication left.
Of course, there are innovations in technology and tactics, but almost always they are done without any help from top command in time or even with prevention from some geniuses in the same command.
Honestly, I really don't understand why do they keep commanders like Sodol so long despite public opinion and hate. . I don't hope that he will be under investigation, only that he will sit somewhere beyond military and don't spoil a situation more(fortunately he was replaced by the commander of Marines as I remember, so at least less USSR style). But is Sodol as close friend to Zalyshny and Syrsky to listen public hate during years?.
Anyway, it simply sad, that many lives and equipment are lost due to personal traits of leaders and organizations structural flaws(ministry of defence in particular). Only hoe is for horizontal communication and more innovative leaders(like Ministry of digital transformation and little bit better leader of UkrOboronProm)
> I really don't understand why do they keep commanders like Sodol so long
It's like hoplites - first to fall breaks the phalanx and things go downhill from there (in this case downhill for the incompetents and the corrupt), so they fight for each other like their own career depends on it, because it does.
And for the same reason I strongly object to your "I don't hope that he will be under investigation" -- it's absolutely necessary to keep pushing until we get a first true, real investigation with actual deserved consequences. When we get one we'll get more. So the first one is worth putting a lot of effort in. Don't give up before starting, we can do this.
Incredible. Let me rephrase that without the zradoyobstvo: we need to be watchful and make sure these investigations aren't abused by the corrupt against their enemies.
"[T}he political-, military-, and security decision-makers were systematically lying about Afghanistan and Iraq for 20 years?" Don't forget the mother of all modern (western) military incompetence, Vietnam, where the US public was for over a decade promised that there was a light at the end of the tunnel and investigated (punished) any officers who disagreed. See Col. David Hackworth.
But for the info on hospital's hit, all the rest could be a perfect material for the Konashenkov releases!
Jokes apart, great reasearch! One small correction, most of P-18s and its Lithuanian derivatives were taken out by Lancets, while Iskanders took out a couple at best.
P.S. Tom, your article "bore" another potential inquiry for your Questions&Answers part. Namely, lack of Manpads in UA forces. Ukraine received thousands of Stingers, certain supplies of Starstreaks and Martlets from UK, RBS-70 from Sweden, Peruns from Poland, to say nothing about huge stock of Soviet-era Iglas inherited from USSR by Ukraine. Ok, the stock was depleted during the war, but surely not in such numbers. What happened to UA manpads?
Manpads belong to the infantry, but for a successful engagement they need to be in the path of a recon bird, and also well warned bc the window to engage is very small. So, to be systematically successful against targets at 2km altitude, you need hundreds of manpads in a sector that's covered by one recon orbit. It's not that they are all out, it's that the density of them is not high enough to close the sky.
And ya, we are close to 900 days of war, and manpads have been used prolifically, while Western stocks are not increasing at anything like the rate that they are being fired (stinger was out of production and afaik, still not back in production). So, it feels like UA has received the bulk of what NATO and allies considered "extra stock" two years ago, and replacements have been trickling in at a very low rate ever since.
Love the three parts. I sadly think that all the western society is with this síndrome. And all the people who are out of the system, even full countries, are left with three options: go with the flow and expect to get better alone (or doing nothing), embrace someting different (BRICS or any other promise), or do something and get a stand. But the western society is living a much harder time to the latters than if they embrace another option.
Mobutu Syndrome in private sector is nothing new. In a competitive environment, Mobutu Syndrome companies decline and new companies emerges, that's ok, that's the nature of capitalism. Problem is when competition is limited, like in the defense sector.
It's simply stupid to try shooting down all russians missiles: we must hit them before they are launched.
We must do it or admit "ok, please russians kill 'em all'.
I'd appreciate a politician who sincerely says that rather than the ones who say "we Support ukraine against russians, but we don't want them to shoot russians." It's a no sense.
Do you suggest hundreds need to throw their lives away in an "uprising" to prove to you that the territories are occupied and not "occupied"? You're a disgusting human being.
I have heard of third of population of Kherson that ran to Russia before liberation/"liberation" of Kherson by UA troops. I guees you understood my point.
As per uprising under Stalin, there were a lot, they just little known to the public
And I know a woman who fled Luhansk for Kyiv in 2014, rent an apartment in Irpin, hid in a basement while her house was shot at by a Russian tank, then fled to Poland.
That does not look like a civil war - there is no fight in the civil society. Just an ordinary invasion, occupation and suppression of any opposition by force.
Yes, that's right, we want to hit ships in the Caspian sea, bombers hosted 2000km away and much, much more. And if there's an initiative in this regard to donate to, I'd be queueing up
If we applied Occam's Razor to the set of hypotheticals - which one would be the simplest to explain the failures ?
You missed the simplest explanation for the lack of secondary (non -radar) information. EW and cyber. But let's say it was available.
The other simple explanation is that there's a big difference between a SAM battery in Kyiv having a radar track to work with all the way from the border and just knowing that "there are missiles coming from this general direction". The radar track is instantly transmitted to the IADS (hence the I for Integrated). Information from people being overflown by a cruise missile and reporting it has a strong lag, so the track is many minutes old by the time it gets into the IADS C4ISR system, so the reaction time for the IADS goes down vs not having a corridor.
Thanks for the analysis. It sounds not good. Further changes in production and mindset are needed that usually takes years, while another attack is due practically any time.
Meanwhile, the Russians have a rare opportunity to hit the opposing command hub real good, and they use it for a terror strike that doesn't help them militarily, but is bound to cause outrage and increase support for their enemy.
Not necessarily. If Ukraine is perceived to be squandering integrated air and missile defense assets, western countries will not be inclined to send more of these, irrespective of Russia’s barbarism. Rhetoric of unwavering support will continue, but that’s free; missiles not so much.
Not necessarily, but still posdibly, I think
Thanks Tom - what solution would you have for the Russian recon drones?
for detection can be used this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slinger_(weapon_system)
if it works( will be working) or something similar with better range
for destruction: drones( guided by radars) , yaks, everything else is too expensive or has to small range
If i understand these matters correctly, 2 months ago in his article https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-18-may-2024-part-1-air?utm_source=publication-search Tom proposed a solution for the recon drones. I allow myself to quote the part from his article, relevant to your question: "... This is a problem I do not expect to be solved until somebody does something the Italians were offering already back in 1980s, but nobody was even thinking about paying attention about: launching a mass production of something in style of the Otomatic and/or Draco - a 76mm gun (or similar calibre) on the chassis of OF-40 or Leopard tank, or the Centauro armoured car. Such weapons have an effective engagement range of about 15,000m, which would enable them to target Russian reconnaissance UAVs that are meanwhile regularly operating at altitudes above 2,000-3,000 metres..." Further in the article, Tom explains that ".... the Italian-designed 76mm gun in question is in widespread service with dozens of navies around the world (including the US Navy). Multiple fire-control systems for it are available, as are large stocks of ammunition…"
The proposed solution does not sound so complicated, which makes me wonder: why nobody has paid attention to it so far? Dear Tom, may be this is another question for your Q&A? To me, it (i mean Russian recon drones above 2km) appears to be (one of the most if not) THE most significant issue to be solved asap. Last but not least, big thanks to Tom for his very long and detailed analysis of events on the 8th of July. Your work is hugely appreciated, even if many first reactions in case you start criticizing big style are unpleasant.
Ukraine still has this old thing. And it's good to 5 kilometers of altitude. Russians have them as well. But for some reason both sides are using them in a direct fire role against light armor instead of against air breathing threats. No answer as to why. Just what it is.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AZP_S-60
The 76mm gun is not the best for this task, as I explained multiple times. It's more like a huge revolver, where you have to stop operation and reload after 5-6 fast shots.
A 35mm gun like the Oerlikon in the Gepard and the incoming Skynex is much better for this task.
Not only this, but also in response to the OP question of why the 76mm is not put into production boils down to simple economics & procurement.
No company is going to sink millions into a project that may or may not sell. At some point this war will end and then the question becomes, 'how do we (the manufacturer) recoup investment and profit?'
While it may seem obvious that the future of warfare is drone/anti drone tech, this conflicts with modern realities of military budgets - never enough money so that "nice to have" takes a backseat to "need to have".
"If our opponent does not have Zara or equivalent drones, would it still be prudent to purchase said 76mm system?"
Common sense may scream 'yes' but realities about procurement - and realize unit purchase is only the beginning, sustainment, logistics, etc must be maintained - quickly run up cost estimates to where "let's wait and see" takes on important meaning. And all the while the manufacturer is left waiting until it becomes a case of, "well, we aren't seeing a line up of sales so park this project in the 'hold pending review' and we'll relook at it later.
OTOH off the shelf systems like the poster above mentioned (Oerlikon, etc) become stopgap measures instead.
Thank you again for your analysis of the situation in Ukraine. The central media of Ukraine often translate your reviews into Ukrainian and publish them. Will they publish this review? And then we will get an answer to the question of freedom of speech.
Depends on media. But generally it is possible. Tom's critique isn't even worse than Besugla posts Even very proZekevsky TSN published Bild article by scandal "expert" Repke about 8 July, where he actually said the same as Tom about a number of missiles that went through air defense (of course without analytics of reasons ). Only stop point could be President straight critique but I haven't found any except one sentence in first post in the series.
Besugla gets shit on by everyone who isn't lazy, sometimes I think they broadcast her opinion just to publicly show what "bad people say" and to demonstrate that criticism is punished. It would be a shame if Toms article gets the same treatment.
"None love the messenger who brings bad news." - Sophocles (496 BC-406 BC)
A bombed children's hospital is from a PR perspective the thing that is moving public acceptance and demand for such news to the highest points. Will see
What it may mean that "8 Shahed drones were lost from radar, likely to overload air defense" ? They flew in and out of Ukraine? See https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1811635486152081760
There were found Shaheds without warhead. There is also information from Ukrainian drone bloggers that there more ones that fly on 2 and even 3 km altitudes. Russians don't even hide that their main purpose is to waste SAM missiles. Maybe this Shaheds could be simply ignored.
Catch-22. Ignore the shaheds and they will hit important targets at will. Don't ignore the shaheds, and light them up, thus wasting missiles, or at least revealing radar positions to be exploited by the more advanced follow on weapons (routed around them or coming to kill them).
It's classic military thinking: don't present the enemy with a problem to solve, problems have solutions. Present the enemy with a dilemma, where they have to choose between two options both of which are beneficial to you. Actually, that's how seduction in old movies works as well.
I have never been in the military, so excuse my ignorance or rudeness. But isn't the intrinsic issue due to the nature of all military organisations to one degree or another i.e. that all orders must be obeyed without question or looking at it another way the military is a top-down uber hierarchical management structure that discourages subordinates from challenging, discussing, offering alternative solutions etc.
To a degree, yes. Everyone is expected to follow orders from above in the heat of battle. However, there is a difference between
- setting an objective but leaving those below to figure out how to achieve it / micromanaging them all the way,
- welcoming feedback after the battle is over / telling everyone to keep shut up.
It's a matter of your army and doctrine, really. If you don't expect your subordinates to know what they are doing because you have levied / conscripted them en masse, and want to use most of them as cannon fodder anyway, it makes sense to go with the latter approach. If you have the culture established and also invested time in training them into trusty professionals, then go with the former.
I’ve never been in the military either, but I’ve worked for some outstanding leaders in a well run company. The good leaders work hard to make sure that they hear the bad news sooner, rather than later and never shoot the messenger. After a big event, like a maintenance turnaround, there was a review, “What went well, what went poorly, how do we get it right next time?” The leader has to drive the reviews and insist on honest feedback. No one but the person in charge can drive people to make honest evaluations. One boss in particular, who had a reputation as a hard ass, was fine if he asked a question and your answer was, “I don’t know. I’ll find out.” But woe to the fool who tried to BS the guy. That’s what got you raked over the coals.
NATO model allows commanders to interpret orders and figures out how to carry them in most effective manner.
Soviet model that both Ukraine and Russia use are extremely rigid and prescriptive.
No, you can execute that but will be overwhelmed with information management as battle conditions change.
Most extreme form was the prussian/German form, where you would end up in front of a military tribunal in case you follow orders and by that leaving out better opportunities. Just always remember that Frederick the Great won his first battle after he fled the battlefield.
https://youtu.be/eqvMaDt9h9o?si=p4_kEJTf1hjpZLuO
To add to that excellent historical tidbit, a similar philosophy was applied in the British Navy during Nelson's times. A commander who missed an opportunity to aggressively attack the enemy and press their advantage had a very high chance of being courts martialed. Orders or no orders.
The idea to execute everything according to one hand is an idea out of modern computer games. That has nothing to do with reality
Modern computer games and also old Soviet commanders. The difference being that modern computer games discount the fog of war, or else the fog of war functions based on preset and understood rules. In real life, it's just fog.
Old Soviet commanders, given a drone video feed assume that they have the best Situational Awareness ever, and it reinforces their Soviet training, which focused on micromanagement through a very rigid chain of command
Well, last year, I mentioned, and even typed in this place, that the only way to counter drones is with other drones. I really expected that they would adapt this technology already since Israel has something similar, and it's a matter of funding. In my unprofessional opinion, this is the only solution that Ukraine could adopt without relying on the slow-moving Westerners.
Obviously, Ukraine has competent people who know how to create and deploy such technology, but they are receiving very little government support. Just imagine 2-3k drones taking out expensive Zala or Orlan drones. Beautiful
I thonk you missed the point which is Ukraine's commanders are generally not very good and somewhat delusional.
No amount of tech defeats crap command (eg Saudi Arabia in Yemen).
Actually i did not, the both things are connected.
Incompetent commanders are forcing smart people to become assault infantry.
There was even story, that some Australian guy designed system, that could have helped UA intercept RF communications.
Instead his commander decided to send him to the 0 line.
I have been wondering since more than a year - and that on both sides - where the hell are drone-based anti-drone systems. And ideally even multi-use drones for such purpose. It is either a lot more complicated than the types of drones already in use, or was simply not considered relevant by the authorities.
My guess is that's quite hard to have situational awareness around your drone visually.
Even HD cameras don't offer enough resolution when trying to hunt your enemy with your eyes, and you don't have a 360 degrees field of view, to watch around your craft while flying.
Thank for such an informative material. Such a news are the worst, because it can't be solved by anything else than personal change of top leadership who ignore the majority of critique. Honestly there were always signs of it since 2022. How many articles I've read about government's almost absent support for drones industry and absence of strategic vision as well as a plethora of "super commanders" who decide that sending antitank,drone and anti drone teams into assault infantry is awesome idea. Last example is a shorting of Russian Zalas,that is usually a private initiative of local brigades FPV teams or civil aviation pilots. It would be much more effective to spread such a method through vertical communication and standardization, but it occurs that only Syrsky has legal rights to do such a things, so only horizontal communication left.
Of course, there are innovations in technology and tactics, but almost always they are done without any help from top command in time or even with prevention from some geniuses in the same command.
Honestly, I really don't understand why do they keep commanders like Sodol so long despite public opinion and hate. . I don't hope that he will be under investigation, only that he will sit somewhere beyond military and don't spoil a situation more(fortunately he was replaced by the commander of Marines as I remember, so at least less USSR style). But is Sodol as close friend to Zalyshny and Syrsky to listen public hate during years?.
Anyway, it simply sad, that many lives and equipment are lost due to personal traits of leaders and organizations structural flaws(ministry of defence in particular). Only hoe is for horizontal communication and more innovative leaders(like Ministry of digital transformation and little bit better leader of UkrOboronProm)
> I really don't understand why do they keep commanders like Sodol so long
It's like hoplites - first to fall breaks the phalanx and things go downhill from there (in this case downhill for the incompetents and the corrupt), so they fight for each other like their own career depends on it, because it does.
And for the same reason I strongly object to your "I don't hope that he will be under investigation" -- it's absolutely necessary to keep pushing until we get a first true, real investigation with actual deserved consequences. When we get one we'll get more. So the first one is worth putting a lot of effort in. Don't give up before starting, we can do this.
You may get even more investigations against the better people - like the one which imprisoned Nadiia Savchenko.
Incredible. Let me rephrase that without the zradoyobstvo: we need to be watchful and make sure these investigations aren't abused by the corrupt against their enemies.
"[T}he political-, military-, and security decision-makers were systematically lying about Afghanistan and Iraq for 20 years?" Don't forget the mother of all modern (western) military incompetence, Vietnam, where the US public was for over a decade promised that there was a light at the end of the tunnel and investigated (punished) any officers who disagreed. See Col. David Hackworth.
But for the info on hospital's hit, all the rest could be a perfect material for the Konashenkov releases!
Jokes apart, great reasearch! One small correction, most of P-18s and its Lithuanian derivatives were taken out by Lancets, while Iskanders took out a couple at best.
P.S. Tom, your article "bore" another potential inquiry for your Questions&Answers part. Namely, lack of Manpads in UA forces. Ukraine received thousands of Stingers, certain supplies of Starstreaks and Martlets from UK, RBS-70 from Sweden, Peruns from Poland, to say nothing about huge stock of Soviet-era Iglas inherited from USSR by Ukraine. Ok, the stock was depleted during the war, but surely not in such numbers. What happened to UA manpads?
Great question - what happened to Ukraine's thousands of MANPADs. Did they really go through them already?
Manpads belong to the infantry, but for a successful engagement they need to be in the path of a recon bird, and also well warned bc the window to engage is very small. So, to be systematically successful against targets at 2km altitude, you need hundreds of manpads in a sector that's covered by one recon orbit. It's not that they are all out, it's that the density of them is not high enough to close the sky.
And ya, we are close to 900 days of war, and manpads have been used prolifically, while Western stocks are not increasing at anything like the rate that they are being fired (stinger was out of production and afaik, still not back in production). So, it feels like UA has received the bulk of what NATO and allies considered "extra stock" two years ago, and replacements have been trickling in at a very low rate ever since.
Love the three parts. I sadly think that all the western society is with this síndrome. And all the people who are out of the system, even full countries, are left with three options: go with the flow and expect to get better alone (or doing nothing), embrace someting different (BRICS or any other promise), or do something and get a stand. But the western society is living a much harder time to the latters than if they embrace another option.
This is, sadly, goung to end in a very grim way.
Mobutu Syndrome in private sector is nothing new. In a competitive environment, Mobutu Syndrome companies decline and new companies emerges, that's ok, that's the nature of capitalism. Problem is when competition is limited, like in the defense sector.
thank you!
Tom, you are right. Some commanders don't want to learn the lessons of the war. The Russians dig again and it works. https://x.com/raging545/status/1810405677040308376
It's simply stupid to try shooting down all russians missiles: we must hit them before they are launched.
We must do it or admit "ok, please russians kill 'em all'.
I'd appreciate a politician who sincerely says that rather than the ones who say "we Support ukraine against russians, but we don't want them to shoot russians." It's a no sense.
"hit them before they are launched." What precisely do you want to hit? Ships in the Caspian Sea or airfield hosting bombers 2k km away from Ukraine?
"We must do it or admit "ok, please russians kill 'em all'."
Let me play devil's advocate: have you ever heard of uprisings (or at least attempts) in occupied/"occupied" Crimea, Donetsk, Melitopol, and etc?
Do you suggest hundreds need to throw their lives away in an "uprising" to prove to you that the territories are occupied and not "occupied"? You're a disgusting human being.
I have heard of refugees.
And I have not heard of uprisings under Stalin, whom Putin follows.
I have heard of third of population of Kherson that ran to Russia before liberation/"liberation" of Kherson by UA troops. I guees you understood my point.
As per uprising under Stalin, there were a lot, they just little known to the public
And I know a woman who fled Luhansk for Kyiv in 2014, rent an apartment in Irpin, hid in a basement while her house was shot at by a Russian tank, then fled to Poland.
Have no doubts about that. It's just a matter of choosing side in a weird type of the civil war.
That does not look like a civil war - there is no fight in the civil society. Just an ordinary invasion, occupation and suppression of any opposition by force.
The Chechens did, for example. They were deported.
Ukrainian, Lithuanian and Polish guerillas were also active for years after WWII. It was of lower scale, so they didn't get deported.
On the other hand, Crimean Tatars and Kurds were deported even though they didn't revolt. Pretty much like Ukrainian children these days.
Right. There were uprising of Russians as well. Most structured was, alas, with the German help:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lokot_Autonomy
I thought about Tambov uprising as a good example.
It was before Stalin, "granpa" Lenin reign with T(St)ukachevskiy in chief using chemical weapon against revolted pesants.
Yes, that's right, we want to hit ships in the Caspian sea, bombers hosted 2000km away and much, much more. And if there's an initiative in this regard to donate to, I'd be queueing up
Thank you, Tom, for your objective critique. Yes, failures can be converted into experience much faster once analyzed without fear.