A ‘quicky’ here, because this was really a memorable day: the way things are looking right now, the Kerch Bridge - the vital communication between south-western Russia and the occupied Crimea - was hit no less than eight times today:
I just wanted to ask it, 'cause it looked familiar. I hope some hits were serious, but anyhow, it showed that if there is enough attackers, the AD can't defend the bridge.
You mean the infra-red/thermographic camera used during the terminal phase?
Not sure the smoke would work against that, not only because modern-day thermographic cameras are much better than that, but because the data collected by the camera is still cross-checked with the DSMAC.
DSMAC - Unless they have an anti-radar EW installed at the bridge. And they installed multiple corner reflectors - possibly to blind the radar navigation by returning extremely strong signals.
Your careful evaluation and cross checking of sources in full display again.
You’re seriously burning a lot of credibility with your “reporting”. If you can publish complete nonsenses on UA, where they can be revealed in matter of days or sometimes minutes…why should I trust anything you write in your books about some 40 years old war in shithole in the middle of nowhere, which are nigh impossible to verify?
Still, most of the Tom's updates appear in ISW and other news after a couple of days, and his predictions usually fulfill. I would not be offended that much by a single old picture coming from a probably malicious information source.
It’s not just the train picture. Just in this post it’s alleging that there were 8 attacks, which has not real support and as many pointed out already it’s mostly smoke generators in pictures.
Also the burning train - if complete know-nothing about these matters like me immediately realized that there is something odd about burning train during sunset/sunrise while attacks happened in the afternoon, then it’s not asking too much to realize from supposed professional
At the very least Tom's updates are better than ISW. ISW very often makes wrong predictions, if not a straight disinformation. And they are 2-3 days late. On the other hand, Tom writes in real-time, and his analysis is good in 80% of cases.
There are 3 aspects, choose 2:
* Low latency (you find out about recent events)
* High correctness (you can be sure of the facts)
* Low cost (you don't invest your personal time in reading a hundred of online sources)
Tom is low latency, but his information is sometimes not cross-checked, which is the cost of the speed. ISW is mostly correct about past events, but they sacrifice speed of updates.
We got your opinion on this in your previous message. As for Therese of us? Personally I think its human to err and egen you wrote daily updates, shit happens. His credibility will be evaluate by all of us who reads his posts. But you dont get to make that judgement for me.
I'm making mistakes. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else.
Just admit you were at a rough party, or you were writing in excitement and got carried away. You generally have great posts - and this one is hopeless. And only you know why. So much for the topic. Not the readers' problem.
I'm making mistakes. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else.
I highly appreciate your updates and cannot wait till you post another one, but this one was so out of line and apparently wrong that I was wondering it was you writing.
Also your answer to my question looks rather from an hurt child than from the real Tom Cooper.
Nope. Too short, no spelling mistakes/typos and, by the time he posted this other outlets had specified what kind of missiles were used. No way Cooper spills any ink before he's geeked out on that kind of detail. The only way this is a legit post is if he's drunk on a beach somewhere on vacation, and if that's the case, somebody SHOULD be damned worried about what's about to happen next!
Yeah, sure: and they forced me to shave my legs and wear a miniskirt, too.... :rolleyes:
I'm making mistakes. This was one. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else.
You work too hard for us for too little in return to be criticized for your occasional mistakes. It was not my intention to be critical just to point out that it is uncharacteristic for you to post according to the mainstream media schedule and not on your usual metered and thoughtful pace. This has been a hectic time for you with a crushing burden of expectations (from not only consumers of your info, but, I think, from yourself as well). I hardly take in info on this conflict from other sources as your assessment I feel (in my ineptitude on the subject) is most reliable and the freeest of conjecture and speculation. I won't go away and read something else since nothing else is really worth reading! Sadly, you will be needed to convey the details of this conflict for longer than anyone should have to, and there are few out there to replace you that have the background and integrity you have displayed over the past year and a half.
The typo comment wasn't criticism, autocorrect couldn't work with so many names, acronyms and technical vernacular and I can only imagine the blur of your fingers furiously typing the content we all so eagerly await and cannot substitute.
Most of that are smoke generators (they stopped pretty fast and then restarted later, when the second attack came), there was 1 place where smoke went on for a bit more (and was black), doubt if that was a hit though. The last pic is the first ever attack from 2022.
Don't think so. The guidance is combining the terrain mapping (DSMAC) with GPS during the flight. Close to the target, the thermographic camera is activated: the guidance system is then comparing the DSMAC data with what the thermographic camera sees.
The latter might get disturbed by smoke (provided it's obsolete, which I doubt); the GPS can get jammed too (indeed, I doubt anybody can use GPS anywhere within 10km from the Kerch Bridge), but the DSMAC not.
All good, I am sure you have a lot on your plate, so highlighting those things for correction without any type of hyperventilation is just a matter of giving back a little from your followers. And for the others: My physic teacher used to say “Was kümmert sich eine Eiche darum, wenn sich ein Schwein an ihr reibt“…
We assuming if Kerch bridge ceases to exist it means russian logistics will be in shambles. Is there any available assessment about how much supply they require in the south and how much they provide without bridge? Mariupol, Berdyansk, some capacity of Crimean ports still exist. Some adjustments probably may be made. Does "no bridge" situation really untenable?
Thanks Tom either way to me its good news but would be wonderful if the RR bridge is damaged! Its totally amazing just before I got to your report I read on MSM that the Russians shoot down all the missiles of course they were relying on the Russians and it was amazing that the accompanying photos showed large smoke columns
Very Interesting, it seems Ukraine has now made it a priority to damage/destroy the bridge. If they really used S-200 missiles for this attack like some are reporting, I wonder how many Ukraine has at the minimum and how many if any it can produce. Considering its their longest range AD missile, it has range advantages when used for surface to surface roles. Or this could even be another missile. I remember hearing they started S-125 missile production sometime last year which was surprising, not sure how true or even possible this is. I really wonder about Ukraine's ability to produce such missiles before the full invasion and even now during the invasion.
It was closed for traffic, and few photos of another resulting traffic jam have been released - though it's unclear for how long. The Russians are busy explaining that 'everything's OK'.
Sorry, but I'm pretty sure the second pic is from October 2022 :/
Yeah, unfortunately the photo is from 2022. It's from TASS: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-crimean-bridge-arrests-ukraine/32076815.html
Absolutely https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-crimean-bridge-arrests-ukraine/32076815.html
I just wanted to ask it, 'cause it looked familiar. I hope some hits were serious, but anyhow, it showed that if there is enough attackers, the AD can't defend the bridge.
Yes, have removed it, meanwhile.
Have posted an update in this regards now. Most of smoke was caused by Russian smoke generators.
Even nicer than previous update 😉
Yup, though - and sadly - any hits remain unconfirmed. Indeed, the second photo was from the last year's attack: thus, have removed it meanwhile.
At least the majority of smokes were from their screening smoke generators. The Russians definitely crapped their pants, yet there weren't 8 hits.
Are you serious? The second pic (train) is from 2022, and the "smokes" are in part (white) generated by smoke's screens. Hmm, You surprised me.
Yes, have removed the photo, and smoke can't disturb guided- nor ballistic missiles.
It can disturb Storm Shadows which rely on computer vision instead of GPS coordinates
You mean the infra-red/thermographic camera used during the terminal phase?
Not sure the smoke would work against that, not only because modern-day thermographic cameras are much better than that, but because the data collected by the camera is still cross-checked with the DSMAC.
DSMAC - Unless they have an anti-radar EW installed at the bridge. And they installed multiple corner reflectors - possibly to blind the radar navigation by returning extremely strong signals.
Train on fire is the photo from Oct 8 2022
Your careful evaluation and cross checking of sources in full display again.
You’re seriously burning a lot of credibility with your “reporting”. If you can publish complete nonsenses on UA, where they can be revealed in matter of days or sometimes minutes…why should I trust anything you write in your books about some 40 years old war in shithole in the middle of nowhere, which are nigh impossible to verify?
Still, most of the Tom's updates appear in ISW and other news after a couple of days, and his predictions usually fulfill. I would not be offended that much by a single old picture coming from a probably malicious information source.
It’s not just the train picture. Just in this post it’s alleging that there were 8 attacks, which has not real support and as many pointed out already it’s mostly smoke generators in pictures.
Also the burning train - if complete know-nothing about these matters like me immediately realized that there is something odd about burning train during sunset/sunrise while attacks happened in the afternoon, then it’s not asking too much to realize from supposed professional
At the very least Tom's updates are better than ISW. ISW very often makes wrong predictions, if not a straight disinformation. And they are 2-3 days late. On the other hand, Tom writes in real-time, and his analysis is good in 80% of cases.
There are 3 aspects, choose 2:
* Low latency (you find out about recent events)
* High correctness (you can be sure of the facts)
* Low cost (you don't invest your personal time in reading a hundred of online sources)
Tom is low latency, but his information is sometimes not cross-checked, which is the cost of the speed. ISW is mostly correct about past events, but they sacrifice speed of updates.
That might be fair, but I would argue that someone who makes a living out of writing about history should err on side of correctness.
Blunders like this post are in my opinion really threatening his credibility in his main occupation
We got your opinion on this in your previous message. As for Therese of us? Personally I think its human to err and egen you wrote daily updates, shit happens. His credibility will be evaluate by all of us who reads his posts. But you dont get to make that judgement for me.
Nobody is interested in your opinion., Hungarianowl.
Chose any two… reminds me about the saying in project management: time, quality, cost… chose any two.
I'm making mistakes. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else.
Just admit you were at a rough party, or you were writing in excitement and got carried away. You generally have great posts - and this one is hopeless. And only you know why. So much for the topic. Not the readers' problem.
Again: I'm making mistakes. Better avoid: you can never know where I might make one.
I'm even warning you - and all the others - not to read. Do yourself a favour: stay away.
....though: if you come up with more of online-psychoanalysis, I'll do the same I'm always doing with all the online-psychoanalysts.
train on fire - photo by 8 Oct. 2022
Your info is seriously contradicted ....please explain
I'm making mistakes. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else.
I highly appreciate your updates and cannot wait till you post another one, but this one was so out of line and apparently wrong that I was wondering it was you writing.
Also your answer to my question looks rather from an hurt child than from the real Tom Cooper.
Likely Tom's account hacked. Not nearly enough sarcasm to have been be written by him!
The writing style was his
Nope. Too short, no spelling mistakes/typos and, by the time he posted this other outlets had specified what kind of missiles were used. No way Cooper spills any ink before he's geeked out on that kind of detail. The only way this is a legit post is if he's drunk on a beach somewhere on vacation, and if that's the case, somebody SHOULD be damned worried about what's about to happen next!
Or he was captured by the Russians and made to discredit himself.
Yeah, sure: and they forced me to shave my legs and wear a miniskirt, too.... :rolleyes:
I'm making mistakes. This was one. Therefore: do yourself a huge favour and don't read. Avoid me: the internet is huge, and you can obviously inform yourself much better somewhere else.
You work too hard for us for too little in return to be criticized for your occasional mistakes. It was not my intention to be critical just to point out that it is uncharacteristic for you to post according to the mainstream media schedule and not on your usual metered and thoughtful pace. This has been a hectic time for you with a crushing burden of expectations (from not only consumers of your info, but, I think, from yourself as well). I hardly take in info on this conflict from other sources as your assessment I feel (in my ineptitude on the subject) is most reliable and the freeest of conjecture and speculation. I won't go away and read something else since nothing else is really worth reading! Sadly, you will be needed to convey the details of this conflict for longer than anyone should have to, and there are few out there to replace you that have the background and integrity you have displayed over the past year and a half.
The typo comment wasn't criticism, autocorrect couldn't work with so many names, acronyms and technical vernacular and I can only imagine the blur of your fingers furiously typing the content we all so eagerly await and cannot substitute.
-Forever Grateful.
I do not mind being criticised: when I make a mistake, I make a mistake. No problem to admit one.
But, explaining whatever sorts of stories about me....that's going too far.
Fair. Thank you for making me a better person, I will take that advice to heart.
Most of that are smoke generators (they stopped pretty fast and then restarted later, when the second attack came), there was 1 place where smoke went on for a bit more (and was black), doubt if that was a hit though. The last pic is the first ever attack from 2022.
Here might be the generators — https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1690321666444816384
Thx!
Don't understand why the smoke, though: it can't disrupt ballistic missiles, nor such missiles like Storm Shadow, for example...
It will disrupt Storm Shadows as they rely on computer vision (IR camera) to find their way around and for targeting.
Don't think so. The guidance is combining the terrain mapping (DSMAC) with GPS during the flight. Close to the target, the thermographic camera is activated: the guidance system is then comparing the DSMAC data with what the thermographic camera sees.
The latter might get disturbed by smoke (provided it's obsolete, which I doubt); the GPS can get jammed too (indeed, I doubt anybody can use GPS anywhere within 10km from the Kerch Bridge), but the DSMAC not.
Radars (DSMAC) are blinded by EW and the installed corner reflectors (and possibly the metallic chaff in the smoke cloud) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_jamming_and_deception
IR is blinded by the smoke and chaff (and possibly by lasers)
GPS is known to be vulnerable to EW.
OK. Lets say that's all that way.
What is blinding a V.860 or V.880 fired in ballistic mode?
"Ports of Berdyansk and Melitopol" - you probably meant Mariupol. Melitopol isn't even quite on the shore. :)
Yup. Mariupol. Dumb mistake.
All good, I am sure you have a lot on your plate, so highlighting those things for correction without any type of hyperventilation is just a matter of giving back a little from your followers. And for the others: My physic teacher used to say “Was kümmert sich eine Eiche darum, wenn sich ein Schwein an ihr reibt“…
We assuming if Kerch bridge ceases to exist it means russian logistics will be in shambles. Is there any available assessment about how much supply they require in the south and how much they provide without bridge? Mariupol, Berdyansk, some capacity of Crimean ports still exist. Some adjustments probably may be made. Does "no bridge" situation really untenable?
One miss does not make any difference. Tom is and remains the best source of information about this dreadful business..
Thanks Tom either way to me its good news but would be wonderful if the RR bridge is damaged! Its totally amazing just before I got to your report I read on MSM that the Russians shoot down all the missiles of course they were relying on the Russians and it was amazing that the accompanying photos showed large smoke columns
Very Interesting, it seems Ukraine has now made it a priority to damage/destroy the bridge. If they really used S-200 missiles for this attack like some are reporting, I wonder how many Ukraine has at the minimum and how many if any it can produce. Considering its their longest range AD missile, it has range advantages when used for surface to surface roles. Or this could even be another missile. I remember hearing they started S-125 missile production sometime last year which was surprising, not sure how true or even possible this is. I really wonder about Ukraine's ability to produce such missiles before the full invasion and even now during the invasion.
Thanks Tom.
Now that a night has passed, and I don’t see any updates in the media on the attack, do you have any? Is the bridge at least closed for traffic?
It was closed for traffic, and few photos of another resulting traffic jam have been released - though it's unclear for how long. The Russians are busy explaining that 'everything's OK'.
Thanks!