Actually, for F16, its much easier to engage cruise missile with the gun, than some UAV... because UAV flies a lot slower which reduces the time F16 gets the fire solution right....
Could be. I remember one UA Fulcrum colliding with Shaheed and going down. Have no doubts that F-16 (and Flanker or Fulcrum) can down 1-2 cruise missiles in one sortie. But 6....another PRBS for "local consumption".
F16 can technically carry 6 AMRAAMs or 6 AIM-9X at once (if no external fuel tanks are used) so it could shot down 6 cruise missile in one sortie.. both these missiles are more than capable doing so.. in target rich environment, its not that surprising... whats more surprising to me is that US pilots did not do such thing, when they were defending Israel against Iran barrage of drones few months back... after all, F15C can carry a lot more missiles...
Are you sure the F-16 can carry 6 AAMs only if not using external tanks? Are there only 4 capable internal pylons? Seems weird. And of course it´s easier for an F-16 to down 6 cruise missiles than 6 drones...
Report said pilot shot down two using AMRAAM missiles, two by using Sidewinders and two by using gun.. AMRAAM should be able to take down cruise missiles at 40-50km range.. AIM-9 at 10-15km... and F16s radar is capable tracking multiple targets. Technically, it is plausible.
Yes, it happened on 13 December and 6 cruise missiles were shot down. This quote from the official source of PSZSU
Під час масованої ракетно-дронової атаки у грудні 2024 року він зробив неймовірне! Вперше в історії застосування Fighting Falcon за один бойовий виліт винищувач F-16 знищує одразу шість крилатих ракет противника!
— Як це тобі вдалося? — питаю в льотчика.
— Усе щось вперше відбувається… Спробував, вийшло! Переконаний, цей досвід стане в нагоді колегам.
— ОК, поясни, як це чотирма ракетами можна збити шість «крилаток»?...
— Ну в мене ще секретна зброя на борту є, — сміється пілот.
Нагадаю, що ж відбувалося в небі України уранці 13 грудня 2024 року.
Дякую Том, написання тексту займає багато часу, а також час який ви приділяєте на прочитання наших коментарів та відповідей на них, одне питання будь ласка, пишуть українські засоби інформації що російські удари з літаків КАБ зменшилися? Чи це дійсно так? І як це вплине на бойові дії, я сподіваюсь що це правда, їм набагато важче буде руйнувати українську оборону, ну і зменшить наші втрати у живій силі.
I understand your point. And please don’t take my words like I push for separating concerns — the war and the politics. But in our case, politically-motivated operation I think is like shouting “wolfs!”. The day might come and all floc will be gone. The president of Ukraine could and should do better in comms with the public, far too many mistakes were done to neglect that. It’s one thing to do “operations” for Americans and Rammstein and another — what happens in the Ukrainian society who fights the war
Thanks, as ever. Re: Germany. I think that the widespread condemnation of their contribution is based on a) Scholz and b) non-Taurus. It would be nice to see both of these obstacles eliminated. Denys D. has posted some information about the development of rocket assistance for the UMPK'd glide bombs. This would make a big difference bringing, for example, Dnipro (where I have friends) into range. It would be appreciated if you could cover this at some point - assuming you haven't already and I have missed it.
"Pudding and Belusov into finding the way to intensify not only the war against Ukraine, but also the ‘shadow war’ against all of NATO. "
How else should they react in the light of massive NATO help that exceeds Soviet help to Vietnam in the 60s? I would say that the "shadow war" is shy and insufficient...
"Some 20 have been lost in combat meanwhile..." More than 40 Marders are already kaput...
"Germany has also delivered 52 Gepard and 15 Cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine by now.."
How else they should react is by withdrawing completely from the sovereign territory of Ukraine and all will be peace and calm. Except inside Russia, but whose fault is that?
The most sound aid Germany and anyone can give Ukraine is that which will hobble the Russian war machine the fastest and most effectively, including Taurus. They only need to count the cost and that is NOT military escalation but loss of ties with Russia, and China.
On NATO threats/expansion- the reason this topic gets thrashed to death, resurrected, and then thrashed to death again, countless times, is because it is at the end of the day................ partially true. But only partially.
And finally, you. Why not take this geopolitical misadventure as an opportunity to re-define what it means to be you, with less leaning on Russian statehood and greatness. Statehood is not a necessary part of being human.
It is not an option for orcs: any kind of withdrawal. They will manipulate Western help, NATO widening - whatever else shits, but they will definitely not mention:
- NK involvement and its role in the war
- CPR silent help
- Iranian supplies
- recrouting all kind of mercenaries (Kuba, Nepal, Asia, Africa)
The West is late for 1,5 years, unfortunately… if UA have had so much weaponry as it has now back in 2022, Kremlin would have been painted yellow-blue back in 2023…
Now South Korea is loosing time… they should have sent their special teams to UA in Oct 2024.
Democracies always loose vs tyranny short-mid term. Long term - we will see
The answer to "what went wrong" is nearly universally human factor. There is a lack of troops, especially trained and motivated troops. Once you withdraw some units that are the most experienced, motivated, capable and willing to organise the combat not just for yourself but for neighbours and put pressure on neighbours and command to improve general theatre of combat, you have across-the-field degradation in all combat efforts on that direction.
I even don't like Azov and consider it at best half as capable militarily as it is likely to be depicted, apparently even that is more than the rest of battle units in Toretsk area.
Although I have to say that I never thought Toretsk could be held for a very long time, or especially the situation reversed, but I have hoped for a bit more time. Oh, well. The loss of any point on the map is not very important in this war.
It is better in the sense that you are more successful in your hits. It is worse in a sense that it doesn't influence war effort. Example: you have destroyed 50% of artillery shells - the front feels it, all operations are affected, losses are increased. You have destroyed 10% shells - logistics reshuffle them a bit, in the end no serious effect on the war effort.
There are some arguments to be made on both sides of the argument, but so far we see that destruction of different Russian stuff in different areas don't influence war effort significantly. It's like strategic bombing in WWII - for a long time it was not really influencing German war machine, until eventually Allies have learned to do it properly. Eventually. Years down the line...
Thank you, Tom for the excellent update and i wish the hardship that you and your family went through the last three weeks had ended , and pardon my ignorance isn't the Gepard spaag and the cheetah the same thing, thanks on advance
Thanks Tom. Yes, Germany in spite of its economic head winds, has in many ways shown the way in terms of building up a military industrial head of steam in support of Ukraine. We can't yet know what is stopping the release of Taurus, and it's tempting to grab for easy answers, but it seems there's a big back story to this
Thanks, Tom. Neither you nor Stefan have mentioned 155th Ann of Kiev brigade in your posts today. Is there any update you could share with the rest of us? Thanks again.
I think that Putin's strategy is to burn through as many Russian troops as possible until Ukrainian defenses disintegrate. It doesn't seem like the latter will actually happen, but it also seems unlikely that he will ever accept that. He'll keep with the failing strategy until he is deposed.
Well, yeah, of course. Any war can be won or lost only if at least one side will lose the will to fight. So far, it didn't happen to Ukraine, but what will happen in a year, three more years, ten years? Putin does see a possible win for his strategy, he doesn't see a possible loss. There are 1.3 million babies born each year, around 700k males. He don't see a downside to using 300k in the war yearly for the next decade.
And there is absolutely nobody in Russia capable to depose him. It simply will not happen. Well, rather, unlikely to happen. Eventually Beria have killed Stalin (that's the version I believe is true, without real evidence), but modern Russia doesn't even have berias anymore. We'll have to fight till his natural death.
The West will not allow Ukraine to fall; its just a matter of how damaged they are cynically willing to let Ukraine become in the process (how long they will draw this out for)
They said F16AM shot down 6 cruise missiles, not UAVs..
"They say" is the most proper description.
With UA great eagerness to show F-16 darings, we have no photos or videos.
Actually, for F16, its much easier to engage cruise missile with the gun, than some UAV... because UAV flies a lot slower which reduces the time F16 gets the fire solution right....
Could be. I remember one UA Fulcrum colliding with Shaheed and going down. Have no doubts that F-16 (and Flanker or Fulcrum) can down 1-2 cruise missiles in one sortie. But 6....another PRBS for "local consumption".
F16 can technically carry 6 AMRAAMs or 6 AIM-9X at once (if no external fuel tanks are used) so it could shot down 6 cruise missile in one sortie.. both these missiles are more than capable doing so.. in target rich environment, its not that surprising... whats more surprising to me is that US pilots did not do such thing, when they were defending Israel against Iran barrage of drones few months back... after all, F15C can carry a lot more missiles...
Are you sure the F-16 can carry 6 AAMs only if not using external tanks? Are there only 4 capable internal pylons? Seems weird. And of course it´s easier for an F-16 to down 6 cruise missiles than 6 drones...
I meant smth different. There is no way that 6 cruise missiles will fly simultaneously in one direction so that a fighter can engage them all.
Report said pilot shot down two using AMRAAM missiles, two by using Sidewinders and two by using gun.. AMRAAM should be able to take down cruise missiles at 40-50km range.. AIM-9 at 10-15km... and F16s radar is capable tracking multiple targets. Technically, it is plausible.
Yes and they also said the ghost of kyiv shot down many russian jets in just one day
Yes, it happened on 13 December and 6 cruise missiles were shot down. This quote from the official source of PSZSU
Під час масованої ракетно-дронової атаки у грудні 2024 року він зробив неймовірне! Вперше в історії застосування Fighting Falcon за один бойовий виліт винищувач F-16 знищує одразу шість крилатих ракет противника!
— Як це тобі вдалося? — питаю в льотчика.
— Усе щось вперше відбувається… Спробував, вийшло! Переконаний, цей досвід стане в нагоді колегам.
— ОК, поясни, як це чотирма ракетами можна збити шість «крилаток»?...
— Ну в мене ще секретна зброя на борту є, — сміється пілот.
Нагадаю, що ж відбувалося в небі України уранці 13 грудня 2024 року.
https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/%EF%B8%8Ff-16-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D1%96-%D0%BF%D1%96%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8-%D0%B1%D1%8E%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82-%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B6%D1%83%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%86%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BB/1021609760006972/
Дякую Том, написання тексту займає багато часу, а також час який ви приділяєте на прочитання наших коментарів та відповідей на них, одне питання будь ласка, пишуть українські засоби інформації що російські удари з літаків КАБ зменшилися? Чи це дійсно так? І як це вплине на бойові дії, я сподіваюсь що це правда, їм набагато важче буде руйнувати українську оборону, ну і зменшить наші втрати у живій силі.
f*ck politically-motivated operations
it´s a complicated matter.The people providing arms and ammo are politicians.
I understand your point. And please don’t take my words like I push for separating concerns — the war and the politics. But in our case, politically-motivated operation I think is like shouting “wolfs!”. The day might come and all floc will be gone. The president of Ukraine could and should do better in comms with the public, far too many mistakes were done to neglect that. It’s one thing to do “operations” for Americans and Rammstein and another — what happens in the Ukrainian society who fights the war
I agree but we are but observers which know nothing. Even the comment from Tom that that was a politically motivated operation can be wrong.
Thanks for your time Tom. Eager for more updates.
Thanks, as ever. Re: Germany. I think that the widespread condemnation of their contribution is based on a) Scholz and b) non-Taurus. It would be nice to see both of these obstacles eliminated. Denys D. has posted some information about the development of rocket assistance for the UMPK'd glide bombs. This would make a big difference bringing, for example, Dnipro (where I have friends) into range. It would be appreciated if you could cover this at some point - assuming you haven't already and I have missed it.
"Pudding and Belusov into finding the way to intensify not only the war against Ukraine, but also the ‘shadow war’ against all of NATO. "
How else should they react in the light of massive NATO help that exceeds Soviet help to Vietnam in the 60s? I would say that the "shadow war" is shy and insufficient...
"Some 20 have been lost in combat meanwhile..." More than 40 Marders are already kaput...
"Germany has also delivered 52 Gepard and 15 Cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine by now.."
This is the most sound German aid.
How else they should react is by withdrawing completely from the sovereign territory of Ukraine and all will be peace and calm. Except inside Russia, but whose fault is that?
The most sound aid Germany and anyone can give Ukraine is that which will hobble the Russian war machine the fastest and most effectively, including Taurus. They only need to count the cost and that is NOT military escalation but loss of ties with Russia, and China.
On NATO threats/expansion- the reason this topic gets thrashed to death, resurrected, and then thrashed to death again, countless times, is because it is at the end of the day................ partially true. But only partially.
And finally, you. Why not take this geopolitical misadventure as an opportunity to re-define what it means to be you, with less leaning on Russian statehood and greatness. Statehood is not a necessary part of being human.
It is not an option for orcs: any kind of withdrawal. They will manipulate Western help, NATO widening - whatever else shits, but they will definitely not mention:
- NK involvement and its role in the war
- CPR silent help
- Iranian supplies
- recrouting all kind of mercenaries (Kuba, Nepal, Asia, Africa)
All of those things you mentioned, the west is calmly and rationally responding to!
The West is late for 1,5 years, unfortunately… if UA have had so much weaponry as it has now back in 2022, Kremlin would have been painted yellow-blue back in 2023…
Now South Korea is loosing time… they should have sent their special teams to UA in Oct 2024.
Democracies always loose vs tyranny short-mid term. Long term - we will see
The answer to "what went wrong" is nearly universally human factor. There is a lack of troops, especially trained and motivated troops. Once you withdraw some units that are the most experienced, motivated, capable and willing to organise the combat not just for yourself but for neighbours and put pressure on neighbours and command to improve general theatre of combat, you have across-the-field degradation in all combat efforts on that direction.
I even don't like Azov and consider it at best half as capable militarily as it is likely to be depicted, apparently even that is more than the rest of battle units in Toretsk area.
Although I have to say that I never thought Toretsk could be held for a very long time, or especially the situation reversed, but I have hoped for a bit more time. Oh, well. The loss of any point on the map is not very important in this war.
What do you think about recent sanctions against russian oil industry?
Surely random attacks on Russian targets work better than targeting the same stuff as the Russians have to keeps all their assets covered by SAMs etc
It is better in the sense that you are more successful in your hits. It is worse in a sense that it doesn't influence war effort. Example: you have destroyed 50% of artillery shells - the front feels it, all operations are affected, losses are increased. You have destroyed 10% shells - logistics reshuffle them a bit, in the end no serious effect on the war effort.
There are some arguments to be made on both sides of the argument, but so far we see that destruction of different Russian stuff in different areas don't influence war effort significantly. It's like strategic bombing in WWII - for a long time it was not really influencing German war machine, until eventually Allies have learned to do it properly. Eventually. Years down the line...
Thank you, Tom for the excellent update and i wish the hardship that you and your family went through the last three weeks had ended , and pardon my ignorance isn't the Gepard spaag and the cheetah the same thing, thanks on advance
A big 'Thank you' to Tom Cooper for this update.
So finally Germany started to move. We will see in the near future, how this develops after the election in February.
So the situation in the air (and sea) gets better for Ukraine (great job at Engels 👍), but the situation on the ground gives a lot of headache:
1) The situation in the Kursk oblast takes it's 'natural' development, after Syrsky blundered the best opportunities in the first few weeks.
2) Particularly those bridgeheads over the Oskil north of Kupyansk.
There is hopefully still some time left to make some changes regarding point 2) with the biggest problem still Syrsky & buddies.
Thanks Tom. Yes, Germany in spite of its economic head winds, has in many ways shown the way in terms of building up a military industrial head of steam in support of Ukraine. We can't yet know what is stopping the release of Taurus, and it's tempting to grab for easy answers, but it seems there's a big back story to this
Thanks, Tom. Neither you nor Stefan have mentioned 155th Ann of Kiev brigade in your posts today. Is there any update you could share with the rest of us? Thanks again.
Which kind of updates are waiting for?
1. Huge political fck up of GSU
2. 155th - at least certain units - are serving and combating in Pokrovsk area
3. All СЗЧ - men on high heels - have time to come back to their units without any sanctions till jan 15th (if i am not mistaken)
4. The unit has a new chief… let him take some time and to bring the order back
5. Idiotic policy of creating new units instead of filling in battered ones -> huge fckups
6. No sense to blame West for non-supplying with ammos and vehicles. We have to work on own production
PS: 2025 should be the year of drones again (AI, swarms, extra-long range). Fingers crossed, it becomes true.
№3 - Until March 1, 2025
The most dredfull sights for a Ukrainian garrison are Zelenski coming for a photo-op and Azov leaving for another mission.
I think that Putin's strategy is to burn through as many Russian troops as possible until Ukrainian defenses disintegrate. It doesn't seem like the latter will actually happen, but it also seems unlikely that he will ever accept that. He'll keep with the failing strategy until he is deposed.
Well, yeah, of course. Any war can be won or lost only if at least one side will lose the will to fight. So far, it didn't happen to Ukraine, but what will happen in a year, three more years, ten years? Putin does see a possible win for his strategy, he doesn't see a possible loss. There are 1.3 million babies born each year, around 700k males. He don't see a downside to using 300k in the war yearly for the next decade.
And there is absolutely nobody in Russia capable to depose him. It simply will not happen. Well, rather, unlikely to happen. Eventually Beria have killed Stalin (that's the version I believe is true, without real evidence), but modern Russia doesn't even have berias anymore. We'll have to fight till his natural death.
The West will not allow Ukraine to fall; its just a matter of how damaged they are cynically willing to let Ukraine become in the process (how long they will draw this out for)
I feel your frustration's Tom. The war continues 🤷🏼♂️. Piece by piece, little by little. It's early days in 2025.
To quote Tolkien. "Yet hope remains while all the Company is true."