Actually, for F16, its much easier to engage cruise missile with the gun, than some UAV... because UAV flies a lot slower which reduces the time F16 gets the fire solution right....
Could be. I remember one UA Fulcrum colliding with Shaheed and going down. Have no doubts that F-16 (and Flanker or Fulcrum) can down 1-2 cruise missiles in one sortie. But 6....another PRBS for "local consumption".
F16 can technically carry 6 AMRAAMs or 6 AIM-9X at once (if no external fuel tanks are used) so it could shot down 6 cruise missile in one sortie.. both these missiles are more than capable doing so.. in target rich environment, its not that surprising... whats more surprising to me is that US pilots did not do such thing, when they were defending Israel against Iran barrage of drones few months back... after all, F15C can carry a lot more missiles...
Are you sure the F-16 can carry 6 AAMs only if not using external tanks? Are there only 4 capable internal pylons? Seems weird. And of course it´s easier for an F-16 to down 6 cruise missiles than 6 drones...
Report said pilot shot down two using AMRAAM missiles, two by using Sidewinders and two by using gun.. AMRAAM should be able to take down cruise missiles at 40-50km range.. AIM-9 at 10-15km... and F16s radar is capable tracking multiple targets. Technically, it is plausible.
Yes, it happened on 13 December and 6 cruise missiles were shot down. This quote from the official source of PSZSU
Під час масованої ракетно-дронової атаки у грудні 2024 року він зробив неймовірне! Вперше в історії застосування Fighting Falcon за один бойовий виліт винищувач F-16 знищує одразу шість крилатих ракет противника!
— Як це тобі вдалося? — питаю в льотчика.
— Усе щось вперше відбувається… Спробував, вийшло! Переконаний, цей досвід стане в нагоді колегам.
— ОК, поясни, як це чотирма ракетами можна збити шість «крилаток»?...
— Ну в мене ще секретна зброя на борту є, — сміється пілот.
Нагадаю, що ж відбувалося в небі України уранці 13 грудня 2024 року.
Дякую Том, написання тексту займає багато часу, а також час який ви приділяєте на прочитання наших коментарів та відповідей на них, одне питання будь ласка, пишуть українські засоби інформації що російські удари з літаків КАБ зменшилися? Чи це дійсно так? І як це вплине на бойові дії, я сподіваюсь що це правда, їм набагато важче буде руйнувати українську оборону, ну і зменшить наші втрати у живій силі.
I understand your point. And please don’t take my words like I push for separating concerns — the war and the politics. But in our case, politically-motivated operation I think is like shouting “wolfs!”. The day might come and all floc will be gone. The president of Ukraine could and should do better in comms with the public, far too many mistakes were done to neglect that. It’s one thing to do “operations” for Americans and Rammstein and another — what happens in the Ukrainian society who fights the war
Thanks, as ever. Re: Germany. I think that the widespread condemnation of their contribution is based on a) Scholz and b) non-Taurus. It would be nice to see both of these obstacles eliminated. Denys D. has posted some information about the development of rocket assistance for the UMPK'd glide bombs. This would make a big difference bringing, for example, Dnipro (where I have friends) into range. It would be appreciated if you could cover this at some point - assuming you haven't already and I have missed it.
Yes, I'm now wondering if Scholz didn't use Taurus to distract his political opponents whilst he pushed through the astonishing amount of effective aid Germany has delivered.
"Pudding and Belusov into finding the way to intensify not only the war against Ukraine, but also the ‘shadow war’ against all of NATO. "
How else should they react in the light of massive NATO help that exceeds Soviet help to Vietnam in the 60s? I would say that the "shadow war" is shy and insufficient...
"Some 20 have been lost in combat meanwhile..." More than 40 Marders are already kaput...
"Germany has also delivered 52 Gepard and 15 Cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine by now.."
It is not an option for orcs: any kind of withdrawal. They will manipulate Western help, NATO widening - whatever else shits, but they will definitely not mention:
- NK involvement and its role in the war
- CPR silent help
- Iranian supplies
- recrouting all kind of mercenaries (Kuba, Nepal, Asia, Africa)
The West is late for 1,5 years, unfortunately… if UA have had so much weaponry as it has now back in 2022, Kremlin would have been painted yellow-blue back in 2023…
Now South Korea is loosing time… they should have sent their special teams to UA in Oct 2024.
Democracies always loose vs tyranny short-mid term. Long term - we will see
South Korea is embroiled in the situation with their president starting a coup, claiming military law etc, and trying to impeach him (the second case in a decade). Until they stabilize, I am not sure that that they can get involved in Ukraine
if I remember correctly, destroying fuel capability of Nazi Germany was the biggest impediment for them. They were producing Me-109 in large quantities up until the end of the war, but without fuel they had no way to train pilots or run missions
Yes, you can see the evidence of the continuous campaign against Russian munitions depots in NASA's FIRMS images. Where, two years ago, large sections of the frontline showed near continuous shelling, these days it is mostly very quiet. Even in Kursk. No one mentions Russia's artillery advantage any more. Funny that.
Ukraine has said long-range drone production could go up by an order of magnitude this year. They built 6,000 in 2024. Once they have built enough to conduct a continuous strategic bombing campaign (but with far more accuracy than the Allied campaigns in WWII), I'm sure they will. It may be their best way to end this war.
Thank you, Tom for the excellent update and i wish the hardship that you and your family went through the last three weeks had ended , and pardon my ignorance isn't the Gepard spaag and the cheetah the same thing, thanks on advance
Thanks, Tom. Neither you nor Stefan have mentioned 155th Ann of Kiev brigade in your posts today. Is there any update you could share with the rest of us? Thanks again.
I think that Putin's strategy is to burn through as many Russian troops as possible until Ukrainian defenses disintegrate. It doesn't seem like the latter will actually happen, but it also seems unlikely that he will ever accept that. He'll keep with the failing strategy until he is deposed.
Got a question on the UA Deep Strikes. You mentioned how the UA jumps all over in its targeting. It does seem that way a bit, but I'm curious about a couple things. One, RU ADA. UA hits target A, how does the RU react? Do they immediately pull ADA assets from somewhere else? Or not? If so, might not this be a plan to wear the RU ADA force out by constant movement? Two, how often do these strikes need to happen to keep something boned up? Is one strike on a Refinery (if it hits the right stuff) enough to keep it down and out for several weeks (about time for it to be hit again after the repairs?), or does this need be kept up more? I've done targeting, but not industrial targeting. I have had guidance from the Command that was literally "hit it until it is a smoking hole in the ground" (no lie), but I am wondering if this is more of timing issue or is it a "spread the love" so the RU is constantly trying to guess the next place hit or is it just the UA not having its strategic targeting game straight yet.
Jan 10. Ukraine launched its largest and widest-ranging drone assault of the war on Russian logistics and key facilities across Russia, attacking at least fifteen targets.
They said F16AM shot down 6 cruise missiles, not UAVs..
"They say" is the most proper description.
With UA great eagerness to show F-16 darings, we have no photos or videos.
Actually, for F16, its much easier to engage cruise missile with the gun, than some UAV... because UAV flies a lot slower which reduces the time F16 gets the fire solution right....
Could be. I remember one UA Fulcrum colliding with Shaheed and going down. Have no doubts that F-16 (and Flanker or Fulcrum) can down 1-2 cruise missiles in one sortie. But 6....another PRBS for "local consumption".
F16 can technically carry 6 AMRAAMs or 6 AIM-9X at once (if no external fuel tanks are used) so it could shot down 6 cruise missile in one sortie.. both these missiles are more than capable doing so.. in target rich environment, its not that surprising... whats more surprising to me is that US pilots did not do such thing, when they were defending Israel against Iran barrage of drones few months back... after all, F15C can carry a lot more missiles...
Are you sure the F-16 can carry 6 AAMs only if not using external tanks? Are there only 4 capable internal pylons? Seems weird. And of course it´s easier for an F-16 to down 6 cruise missiles than 6 drones...
I meant smth different. There is no way that 6 cruise missiles will fly simultaneously in one direction so that a fighter can engage them all.
Report said pilot shot down two using AMRAAM missiles, two by using Sidewinders and two by using gun.. AMRAAM should be able to take down cruise missiles at 40-50km range.. AIM-9 at 10-15km... and F16s radar is capable tracking multiple targets. Technically, it is plausible.
That's why there are no videos of entire 'streams' of Kh-101s flying along exactly the same course?
Here's why not:
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/why_ukraines_f_16s_take_only_four_missiles_with_nine_hardpoints_available-13125.html
It's down to optimising fuel and ECW pylons.
Yes and they also said the ghost of kyiv shot down many russian jets in just one day
Yes, it happened on 13 December and 6 cruise missiles were shot down. This quote from the official source of PSZSU
Під час масованої ракетно-дронової атаки у грудні 2024 року він зробив неймовірне! Вперше в історії застосування Fighting Falcon за один бойовий виліт винищувач F-16 знищує одразу шість крилатих ракет противника!
— Як це тобі вдалося? — питаю в льотчика.
— Усе щось вперше відбувається… Спробував, вийшло! Переконаний, цей досвід стане в нагоді колегам.
— ОК, поясни, як це чотирма ракетами можна збити шість «крилаток»?...
— Ну в мене ще секретна зброя на борту є, — сміється пілот.
Нагадаю, що ж відбувалося в небі України уранці 13 грудня 2024 року.
https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/%EF%B8%8Ff-16-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D1%96-%D0%BF%D1%96%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8-%D0%B1%D1%8E%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82-%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B6%D1%83%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%86%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BB/1021609760006972/
Дякую Том, написання тексту займає багато часу, а також час який ви приділяєте на прочитання наших коментарів та відповідей на них, одне питання будь ласка, пишуть українські засоби інформації що російські удари з літаків КАБ зменшилися? Чи це дійсно так? І як це вплине на бойові дії, я сподіваюсь що це правда, їм набагато важче буде руйнувати українську оборону, ну і зменшить наші втрати у живій силі.
f*ck politically-motivated operations
it´s a complicated matter.The people providing arms and ammo are politicians.
I understand your point. And please don’t take my words like I push for separating concerns — the war and the politics. But in our case, politically-motivated operation I think is like shouting “wolfs!”. The day might come and all floc will be gone. The president of Ukraine could and should do better in comms with the public, far too many mistakes were done to neglect that. It’s one thing to do “operations” for Americans and Rammstein and another — what happens in the Ukrainian society who fights the war
I agree but we are but observers which know nothing. Even the comment from Tom that that was a politically motivated operation can be wrong.
Thanks for your time Tom. Eager for more updates.
Thanks, as ever. Re: Germany. I think that the widespread condemnation of their contribution is based on a) Scholz and b) non-Taurus. It would be nice to see both of these obstacles eliminated. Denys D. has posted some information about the development of rocket assistance for the UMPK'd glide bombs. This would make a big difference bringing, for example, Dnipro (where I have friends) into range. It would be appreciated if you could cover this at some point - assuming you haven't already and I have missed it.
Yes, I'm now wondering if Scholz didn't use Taurus to distract his political opponents whilst he pushed through the astonishing amount of effective aid Germany has delivered.
"Pudding and Belusov into finding the way to intensify not only the war against Ukraine, but also the ‘shadow war’ against all of NATO. "
How else should they react in the light of massive NATO help that exceeds Soviet help to Vietnam in the 60s? I would say that the "shadow war" is shy and insufficient...
"Some 20 have been lost in combat meanwhile..." More than 40 Marders are already kaput...
"Germany has also delivered 52 Gepard and 15 Cheetah self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine by now.."
This is the most sound German aid.
It is not an option for orcs: any kind of withdrawal. They will manipulate Western help, NATO widening - whatever else shits, but they will definitely not mention:
- NK involvement and its role in the war
- CPR silent help
- Iranian supplies
- recrouting all kind of mercenaries (Kuba, Nepal, Asia, Africa)
The West is late for 1,5 years, unfortunately… if UA have had so much weaponry as it has now back in 2022, Kremlin would have been painted yellow-blue back in 2023…
Now South Korea is loosing time… they should have sent their special teams to UA in Oct 2024.
Democracies always loose vs tyranny short-mid term. Long term - we will see
South Korea is embroiled in the situation with their president starting a coup, claiming military law etc, and trying to impeach him (the second case in a decade). Until they stabilize, I am not sure that that they can get involved in Ukraine
Hope they will find their stability before Kims will come to them with 1,5kk army equipped with FPVs and trained for moder combat warfare
Now they are simply loosing time, wasting it for internal probs. as said, democracies loose vs dictatorships
What do you think about recent sanctions against russian oil industry?
Surely random attacks on Russian targets work better than targeting the same stuff as the Russians have to keeps all their assets covered by SAMs etc
if I remember correctly, destroying fuel capability of Nazi Germany was the biggest impediment for them. They were producing Me-109 in large quantities up until the end of the war, but without fuel they had no way to train pilots or run missions
Yes, you can see the evidence of the continuous campaign against Russian munitions depots in NASA's FIRMS images. Where, two years ago, large sections of the frontline showed near continuous shelling, these days it is mostly very quiet. Even in Kursk. No one mentions Russia's artillery advantage any more. Funny that.
Ukraine has said long-range drone production could go up by an order of magnitude this year. They built 6,000 in 2024. Once they have built enough to conduct a continuous strategic bombing campaign (but with far more accuracy than the Allied campaigns in WWII), I'm sure they will. It may be their best way to end this war.
Thank you, Tom for the excellent update and i wish the hardship that you and your family went through the last three weeks had ended , and pardon my ignorance isn't the Gepard spaag and the cheetah the same thing, thanks on advance
A big 'Thank you' to Tom Cooper for this update.
So finally Germany started to move. We will see in the near future, how this develops after the election in February.
So the situation in the air (and sea) gets better for Ukraine (great job at Engels 👍), but the situation on the ground gives a lot of headache:
1) The situation in the Kursk oblast takes it's 'natural' development, after Syrsky blundered the best opportunities in the first few weeks.
2) Particularly those bridgeheads over the Oskil north of Kupyansk.
There is hopefully still some time left to make some changes regarding point 2) with the biggest problem still Syrsky & buddies.
Thanks, Tom. Neither you nor Stefan have mentioned 155th Ann of Kiev brigade in your posts today. Is there any update you could share with the rest of us? Thanks again.
Which kind of updates are waiting for?
1. Huge political fck up of GSU
2. 155th - at least certain units - are serving and combating in Pokrovsk area
3. All СЗЧ - men on high heels - have time to come back to their units without any sanctions till jan 15th (if i am not mistaken)
4. The unit has a new chief… let him take some time and to bring the order back
5. Idiotic policy of creating new units instead of filling in battered ones -> huge fckups
6. No sense to blame West for non-supplying with ammos and vehicles. We have to work on own production
PS: 2025 should be the year of drones again (AI, swarms, extra-long range). Fingers crossed, it becomes true.
№3 - Until March 1, 2025
The most dredfull sights for a Ukrainian garrison are Zelenski coming for a photo-op and Azov leaving for another mission.
I think that Putin's strategy is to burn through as many Russian troops as possible until Ukrainian defenses disintegrate. It doesn't seem like the latter will actually happen, but it also seems unlikely that he will ever accept that. He'll keep with the failing strategy until he is deposed.
I think you mean 'morale' degradation not 'moral'? :)
The moral degradation of the German army stayed pretty much at rock bottom throughout that conflict.
I feel your frustration's Tom. The war continues 🤷🏼♂️. Piece by piece, little by little. It's early days in 2025.
To quote Tolkien. "Yet hope remains while all the Company is true."
F-16 is useful nevertheless.
Got a question on the UA Deep Strikes. You mentioned how the UA jumps all over in its targeting. It does seem that way a bit, but I'm curious about a couple things. One, RU ADA. UA hits target A, how does the RU react? Do they immediately pull ADA assets from somewhere else? Or not? If so, might not this be a plan to wear the RU ADA force out by constant movement? Two, how often do these strikes need to happen to keep something boned up? Is one strike on a Refinery (if it hits the right stuff) enough to keep it down and out for several weeks (about time for it to be hit again after the repairs?), or does this need be kept up more? I've done targeting, but not industrial targeting. I have had guidance from the Command that was literally "hit it until it is a smoking hole in the ground" (no lie), but I am wondering if this is more of timing issue or is it a "spread the love" so the RU is constantly trying to guess the next place hit or is it just the UA not having its strategic targeting game straight yet.
I think the Ukrainians read your post.
Jan 10. Ukraine launched its largest and widest-ranging drone assault of the war on Russian logistics and key facilities across Russia, attacking at least fifteen targets.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_faces_its_largest_coordinated_drone_attack_key_hubs_from_krasnodar_to_kerch_are_targeted-13157.html