Hello everybody! Still very busy, and also exhausted after a though week, thus ‘lagging behind’ with what I wanted to report, the last few days. And even now: sorry, barely enough time for another brief update, primarily focusing on southern Zaporizhzhya and south-western Donetsk.
So what I get from the Russians fanfare is that the gained(?) positions in the valley (Snikyvka) and TRIES to gain positions on the hills and ridges east of it, mainly to control the H-26 road. The claims is that there is a flat terrain where the VSRF can easily moves. I admit this can be whispering in the dark, but:
- a similar attempt happened a few weeks ago at Karmazhinivka. Russians advanced into a valley/low land and then in two weeks were blasted back into their starting positions.
- there was a very obvious revelation from some British tank commander when they left the hated bocage country in Normandy and finally started the first "by the book offensive": a "good tank country" (i.e: open fields without many obstacles) is always a "good anti-tank country" as well. And it was the time when drones were unheard...
All the best to the 14th Mech, I hope they have all the necessary hardware!
Thankyou Tom for the update. If this is really the state of the Russian army, then I suppose at some point we can expect a "Dam break" event when personnel levels reach a critical point. I also wonder what will happen to the decorated and awarded Russian commanders once they are no longer able to hide the truth.
I guess I was thinking when they lose the land bridge or supply routes thereof, how will Pudding react given that they have been saying they're holding out?
It is hard to predict his response... He doesn't have many loyal commanders to replace current ones, and he is much more afraid of disloyalty then anything else.
Butusov, editor-in-chief of "Censor.net", this morning published a video of Ukrainian troops entering Robotine. But our Genstab is silent still, as well as concerning Urozhaine that was also taken yesterday. Slava Ukraini!
...while the ZSU is well inside Robotyne for at least....well, actually, in my last report on this topic, back on 6 August, I wanted to mention this, but: had only one source claiming it, so wasn't sure.
Thank you for the update. It is Intersting that your analysis makes it possible to understand what is going on while a lot of media says it impossible. Of course no one can get every detail correct, but the overall picture is understandable.
Tom, the 14th Mechanised Brigade is not an inexperienced unit. They were formed from the good-performing core of the 51st Mechanised Brigade, which was disbanded in 2014 due to poor performance.
Yes, but the core of the group has experience from the Donbas War and the unit itself participated in the JFO/ATO. I do not know about their post 2022 experience though.
What I don't get is why there is an entire VDV regiment, that let themself get squandered in a really hopeless situation without giving up or going the other way. Do they really have no choice?
The 247th VDV is far from being complete. They lost about 50% of their troops already during the drive on Mykolaiv, the last year; were 're-built' (by mobiks), then sent into combat again etc. Lately, there were several protests and almost a mutiny within the unit: as such, they're 'black sheep' for their superiors.
Thank you Tom I sure liked reading this report, NE Kupyansk area is having a hard time of it but no serious Russian break thrus so hoping the UAF can hang in a manage. South area Staromaiorke - Robotyne are sounding very encouraging lets hope it keeps going good for the UAF boys
I know the russians are getting wacked but is a big breakthrough even possible and the offensive turn into a battle of manouver (which the russian would get even more wacked)? wouldnt the russians just pull some reservers out of their ass and man more trenches and mine even more the path of the AFU and delay them until the raining season and mud or they lose offensive capability?
A breakthrough seems impossible since it is so easy for Russia to lay mines. And combined maneuvers in a minefield has proven to be idiotic. Of course the press parrots complaints that Ukraine isn’t implementing combined maneuvers. The only way a big breakthrough could happen is if Russian artillery was completely destroyed and unable to lay mines. In which case combined maneuvers wouldn’t be necessary. So it seems Ukraine will just have to continue to slog it out. There are things that could be useful such as more air defenses and longer range misiles but the US doesn’t want to supply them.
1. There's a lot of bad maths about this war. The southern front, is at a bare minimum 10,000 km2 (grossly underestimated). The idea that there are mines everywhere is bollocks. There are a lot of mines in specific areas.
2. If every time the ZSU have to stop after breaking through the VSRF defences and wait for the counter attack then it means that the ZSU are incapable of following a breakthrough. Mines are irrelevant, artillery is irrelevant, airforce is irrelevant. If the ZSU are incapable of flooding any gap and pushing even 5km (which is 10 min even by tank) then it's their own fault. Unless you want to argue that the VSRF are constantly counter attacking through minefields.
3. More bad maths is the idea that the VSRF are constantly putting multiple brigades against a single ZSU one. We know that the VSRF do not have more troops than the ZSU overall. If the VSRF were really doing that, then there would be vast gaps everywhere. Unless of course, the ZSU are so incompetent that they are completely incapable of exploiting empty space.
4. What exactly do you need long range missiles for? The ZSU received storm shadow/scalp and have been using those a lot. They have gmlrs, they have jdams. What do you need long range missiles from the US for? Just cause it's nice to have more? Sure, it's always nice to have more, but what capability would that provide beyond what they already have?
Just on the point of the VSRF sending how many of who to plug up a gap located at where, aren't they using their secondary (reserve) forces for this, and thus isn't the issue to do with the rate at which they're being used up, rather than opening gaps
Yes, you are correct, that appears to be the case. However, the ZSU have at least the same number of troops overall. There is no reason for them to be outnumbered while on the attack, when they have the initiative and can attack when and where they choose. What's even more inexplicable is the idea that they are being counter attacked by larger forces completely within the range of their own, now superior, artillery and even mortars. That should never happen, the ZSU should flood the gaps and smash those counter attacks on the move like they did a few times during the kharkiv offensive. If the VSRF were fighting like this in early 2022 they would never have taken Izyum, or Kherson, or Mariupol. The professional VSRF army, that no longer exists, definitely knew how to conduct offensives. Fortunately, for all of us, they were destroyed from the inside through the decisions of their idiotic political leaders. This isn't a uniquely Russian thing, the US army has been losing wars left, right and centre purely due to their idiotic political leaders as well.
"There is no reason for them to be outnumbered while on the attack" - except for thermobaric (vacuum) MLRS, i.e. TOS-1 and TOS-1A, which can destroy hundreds of soldiers with a single salvo.
"What's even more inexplicable is the idea that they are being counter attacked by larger forces completely within the range of their own, now superior, artillery and even mortars." - 1) amassing troops make them extremely vulnerable to the Russian MLRS. 2) The Russians, for some reason, have the maps for their own mine fields, and can transfer large amounts of troops without much danger from the mines. For the very same strange reason the Ukrainians don't have maps for the Russian mine fields, and thus cannot transport troops at will.
"If the VSRF were fighting like this in early 2022 they would never have taken Izyum, or Kherson, or Mariupol." - Kherson was taken without a fight, while Mariupol was surrounded. Who and from where should have counterattacked the Russians in those cities?
Yes, the absolutely mighty TOS launchers with a terrifying range of 2-4 km. They are also so inconspicuous that it is impossible to ever find them. I guess if the mines are 15 km deep and the ZSU have managed less than 10km at most so far, then the tos launchers must have been placed literally in the middle of minefields. The VSRF also have thermobaric grenades, the ultimate weapon for which there is no solution.
According to you, amassing troops is only dangerous to the ZSU, despite having a significant artillery and mlrs advantage over the VSRF.
Can you start using numbers because every time you write, it sounds as if you thought that an attack by a brigade was conducted over a width of 50 metres. Do you realise that it's in fact many km? Just during the southern offensive, there were 6 axes of attack stretching over 100-200km. Each axis was many km wide.
Yes, the VSRF have the maps of some of their minefields but by now it should be pretty clear to the ZSU where the mine free lanes are, as they have been repelling counter attacks for 2 months now, more or less in the same area. Are the GUR and army recon so utterly hopeless they can't even see 10 km ahead of their front troops?
"The southern front, is at a bare minimum 10,000 km2 (grossly underestimated)." - Frontlines are measured in length (km), not in area (km2).
"The idea that there are mines everywhere is bollocks." - the mines are probably only on the foremost 10 to 15 km deep, hundreds of km wide. Lots of them. You probably underestimate the Soviet weapons stocks.
"Mines are irrelevant, artillery is irrelevant, airforce is irrelevant." - Please explain why.
"If the ZSU are incapable of flooding any gap and pushing even 5km (which is 10 min even by tank) then it's their own fault." - tanks tend to be immobilized by the very firtst anti-tank mines they ride on. And there are multiple mines per square meter on those fields now.
"More bad maths is the idea that the VSRF are constantly putting multiple brigades against a single ZSU one. We know that the VSRF do not have more troops than the ZSU overall. If the VSRF were really doing that, then there would be vast gaps everywhere." - ZSU rotates units to and from the frontline, and need to protect the borders with RF and Belarus. VSRF does not do rotation in the South, and does not care about its borders as the West did not let ZSU use their weapons on Russian land.
"What exactly do you need long range missiles for?" - 1) There are weapon storage sites in Crimea. 2) The longer range airplane-launched missiles are, the safer are the airplanes that launch them. And Ukraine has no way to replace airplanes it loses.
This is honestly gibberish. I said front, not front line because a strategic offensive is measured in length and depth, that is in km2. The ZSU offensive had to penetrate only 30-40km and it would've been a complete success, as that would allow their tube artillery to have fire control over the entire VSRF rear. That is why the ZSU should have expected the VSRF to already contest the very first line. If they didn't then the whole planning was fubar.
The whole point of demining is that you dont just follow the first vehicle until it's immobilised. The ZSU are bad at doing it. You keep writing this nonsense about mines and atgms as if nobody has ever faced those or this was some incredible, previously unknown tactic. Kill boxes is the most generic, standard anti tank tactic taught in any decent army. The ZSU have been doing it themselves. If you are trying to defend the ZSU incompetence by painting them as retards, who could not possibly have known, then it's your choice but leave me out of it.
Nobody cares who is rotating what, that is the decision of command. There is 0 reasons to be outnumbered when conducting an attack. It is terrible planning, incompetent command, utterly stupid and destined to fail.
There are no US missiles that have a superior range to storm shadow that either exist or the US would ever transfer to Ukraine. Therefore this entire point is irrelevant.
"The whole point of demining is that you dont just follow the first vehicle until it's immobilised. The ZSU are bad at doing it." - Please explain in more details for people who did not have any practical experience of demining. Then we will be able to discuss your perfect plan under the current circumstances at the Southern front.
"You keep writing this nonsense about mines and atgms as if nobody has ever faced those or this was some incredible, previously unknown tactic." - Who has faced continuous line of mines 10-15 km deep with no air superiority, under ATGM and MLRS fire and kamikaze drone attacks? What were their casualties? How did they break through? You should know those operations as you state that this is more or less common kind of an armed operation.
"There is 0 reasons to be outnumbered when conducting an attack." - If the enemy amasses their soldiers, you should not amass yours unless you are ready for high casualties when your lines are struck with area damage weapons. Ukraine does not have those 8 millions of soldiers the USSR bought the WW2 victory with.
"There are no US missiles that have a superior range to storm shadow that either exist or the US would ever transfer to Ukraine. Therefore this entire point is irrelevant." - 1) Had you read the Tom's previous post https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/saints-thunders-and-lightnings-part-340 you would have noted that the Russian air defense covers the area behind the Ukrainian positions, and their air-to-air missiles hit Ukrainian aircraft far away from the front line. Thus the air-based missile cannot be fired anywhere close to the frontline. 2) Ukraine is very short on the combat aircraft with no way to obtain more planes anywhere soon. No aircraft = no Storm Shadow missile strikes. 3) Tom wrote that France promised to provide 15 pieces of SCALP EG. Do you think that is enough to counter the Russian logistics? Please consider the Russian air defenses, well described in the linked article.
"No amount of excuses will change the simple fact that the ZSU are incapable of coordinating multiple large units in offensive operations, at the same place and time." -- Did you already hint at the unmined place you know in the South front line? Or estimated the time needed for the sappers to clear the 15 km deep mine field for the armour to enter the assault? And which kind of forces is protecting the sappers at the 10 km range from other kinds of forces that stay back waiting for the sappers? And what protects the amassed assault from guided bombs, MLRS and thermobaric weapons?
You take pride in NATO forces beating up the Arab insurgents who don't have enough MLRS, not to say of air defense or vacuum bombs. Was NATO ever able to suppress a layered air defense featuring something like S400? Was it able to fight with zero air support and very limited artillery? Did it ever counter an enemy that used drones for 24/7 intelligence and guided attacks? Did they attack through kilometers deep continuous mine fields with no cover under all those conditions?
Russia inherited the largest part of the USSR military and added to it some modern capabilities. The USSR stocks were enough to keep the entire NATO block busy to counterbalance. And now you think Ukraine is to be blamed because it does not win against all that force after being granted some 1% of older NATO resources.
Mines and dealing with them is at least 100 years old. I do not have to prepare specific plans because I am not part of the genstab. There are many ways to deal with minefields and they have been done in many wars, least during ww2. The VSRF managed to push through many minefields in the East during this war as well. Start with not attacking along obvious areas, very slowly, with small units, without artillery support and anti air. Maybe that would help? If your argument is that they don't have those, then they shouldn't have conducted this operation in the first place. If you don't have the means to do something, don't do it.
Most VSRF drones can be easily jammed if you have the means. These are not some secret high tech systems. Even the VSRF has a variety of jammers. If the ZSU did not prepare to do it, then they planned badly.
This whole thing with drones is getting tiresome. These are loud, low tech crap, that can be shot down with small arms fire with a bit of luck, as has been filmed many times. If you are planning an offensive and you don't even have 50 cals in abundance in such a relatively small area, then you planned badly.
Your idiotic insistence on Ukrainians being born warriors and NATO armies somehow wanking through their military careers, is really starting to grate on me. The ZSU, especially today, is an army comprised of individual gems among a sea of shit. Tens of millions of dollars, if not more, in bribes in regional recruitment centres. Zelensky has just announced the firing of all heads of those. Brigades that cannot fight as brigades but have to fight as individual battalions because their command staff is untrained and incompetent. You are questioning militaries that are superior in every way. Compare Desert Storm to this crap. Entire tank divisions in combat. Even the invasion of Iraq, no comparison. After 1.5 years, the ZSU can't even get a brigade to fight using all of it's resources.
Everything about the southern offensive is a shitshow. Incompetently planned, incompetently led, incompetently fought. The ZSU used leo2s and bradleys as armoured taxis, like morons. May as well used shitty soviet tanks with exploding turrets. I would love to see the reports of how many leos have actually fired a round directly at a Russian fighting vehicle. I haven't seen any videos of that, so I hope it's because of opsec.
As far as casualties are concerned, this fairy tale of minimising losses, so fighting like idiots is a good story for propaganda. A successful breakthrough operation virtually always results in fewer casualties overall. There is no more costly way to fight wars then through attrition. What's more, from the scant information we do have, it is almost certain that the ZSU genstab itself planned a week or max 2 long strategic offensive. They did not want to conduct this attritional fight. However, I am sure you know better than them. They surely expected to make announcements to the world how the offensive was fubar.
This is what I was wondering as well but it seems they would need time and resources to do that. They're still using large sections of the rear for their operations so I dont think they can mine these areas. I also dont think the Ukrainians are letting them mine in the rear using mechanized equipment at least. But just before Tokmak there are still a lot of mined areas.
What do you think about explanation that poo-tin orders to stay put and defend lost positions are his attempt at delaying game - exchanging bodies for time? In hope that either West running out of shells and will to support Ukraine? While he is training new bodies for the front line.
Lagging behind or not, all your updates are very welcome, Tom.
Still waiting for the “Biiiiiiig” ruZZian offensive Putin-fanboys are speaking about in the past two weeks (Oh, my!)
Sadly not only them, but also our media - because those damn Ukrainians are keeping operational silence.
These pesky Ukrainians and his love for secrecy, security and smartness (all S words) ;-)
Not only SS, but SSS -> what proof do you need more to acknowledge, that they are all Nazis!
Zelensky--unmasked!!!
I raise the ante: Stealthy.
So we’re at SSSS now. The ruZZian PRBS farms may really having a good time reading this!
XD.
Thank you Tom.
Scratching together the last reserves of energy and writing down the above to inform your followers is sincerely appreciated!
Hope you have a good weekend and can get some rest!
Take care.
For the Kupyansk area: I finally bookmarked the online topography map of Ukraine
(if anybody is interested: https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-wmv51/Ukraine/?center=47.94211%2C36.68266&zoom=11&base=4), which makes understanding the actual developments much easier.
So what I get from the Russians fanfare is that the gained(?) positions in the valley (Snikyvka) and TRIES to gain positions on the hills and ridges east of it, mainly to control the H-26 road. The claims is that there is a flat terrain where the VSRF can easily moves. I admit this can be whispering in the dark, but:
- a similar attempt happened a few weeks ago at Karmazhinivka. Russians advanced into a valley/low land and then in two weeks were blasted back into their starting positions.
- there was a very obvious revelation from some British tank commander when they left the hated bocage country in Normandy and finally started the first "by the book offensive": a "good tank country" (i.e: open fields without many obstacles) is always a "good anti-tank country" as well. And it was the time when drones were unheard...
All the best to the 14th Mech, I hope they have all the necessary hardware!
Thanks, Laszlo,
that's making sense.
Thankyou Tom for the update. If this is really the state of the Russian army, then I suppose at some point we can expect a "Dam break" event when personnel levels reach a critical point. I also wonder what will happen to the decorated and awarded Russian commanders once they are no longer able to hide the truth.
Nothing will happen to them. They have fulfilled Putler's wish to hear good news.
I guess I was thinking when they lose the land bridge or supply routes thereof, how will Pudding react given that they have been saying they're holding out?
It is hard to predict his response... He doesn't have many loyal commanders to replace current ones, and he is much more afraid of disloyalty then anything else.
Butusov, editor-in-chief of "Censor.net", this morning published a video of Ukrainian troops entering Robotine. But our Genstab is silent still, as well as concerning Urozhaine that was also taken yesterday. Slava Ukraini!
...while the ZSU is well inside Robotyne for at least....well, actually, in my last report on this topic, back on 6 August, I wanted to mention this, but: had only one source claiming it, so wasn't sure.
As a rule Ukrainian officials are silent for a good while concerning ongoing military operations. Foreign sources are much quicker.
Elena,
The reason for quite is OPSEC.
As they should be. Ruzzian commanders do not report up their losses - so the longer higher ups in ruzzia in the dark - the better for Ukraine
Thank you for the update. It is Intersting that your analysis makes it possible to understand what is going on while a lot of media says it impossible. Of course no one can get every detail correct, but the overall picture is understandable.
Since there was discussion of the Angolan Bush War the other day:
"A close encounter between a SADF Ratel 90 IFV and an Angolan T-55A MBT deep in the bush, 1980s."
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1689562429481476096
Tom, the 14th Mechanised Brigade is not an inexperienced unit. They were formed from the good-performing core of the 51st Mechanised Brigade, which was disbanded in 2014 due to poor performance.
They're also one of the units that represented Ukraine in NATO exercises in 2017 and 2018.
Not really 'gauging' as forwarding what do I get to hear.
Please mind: a unit can be 100+ years old. Its performance depends on combat experience.
Yes, but the core of the group has experience from the Donbas War and the unit itself participated in the JFO/ATO. I do not know about their post 2022 experience though.
Those of you who speak Russian might view this interview to get a grasp of analyst Michael Kofman's observations in Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=refM5Zt3_zM
Thank you! As always it's a pleasure to read
Thank you for your update Tom.
What I don't get is why there is an entire VDV regiment, that let themself get squandered in a really hopeless situation without giving up or going the other way. Do they really have no choice?
Their commander was given order to hold on.
The 247th VDV is far from being complete. They lost about 50% of their troops already during the drive on Mykolaiv, the last year; were 're-built' (by mobiks), then sent into combat again etc. Lately, there were several protests and almost a mutiny within the unit: as such, they're 'black sheep' for their superiors.
Thank you Tom. I've been following you since last February. The work you do to inform us is invaluable. I deeply respect you for it. Thank you.
Thank you Tom I sure liked reading this report, NE Kupyansk area is having a hard time of it but no serious Russian break thrus so hoping the UAF can hang in a manage. South area Staromaiorke - Robotyne are sounding very encouraging lets hope it keeps going good for the UAF boys
I know the russians are getting wacked but is a big breakthrough even possible and the offensive turn into a battle of manouver (which the russian would get even more wacked)? wouldnt the russians just pull some reservers out of their ass and man more trenches and mine even more the path of the AFU and delay them until the raining season and mud or they lose offensive capability?
A breakthrough seems impossible since it is so easy for Russia to lay mines. And combined maneuvers in a minefield has proven to be idiotic. Of course the press parrots complaints that Ukraine isn’t implementing combined maneuvers. The only way a big breakthrough could happen is if Russian artillery was completely destroyed and unable to lay mines. In which case combined maneuvers wouldn’t be necessary. So it seems Ukraine will just have to continue to slog it out. There are things that could be useful such as more air defenses and longer range misiles but the US doesn’t want to supply them.
Couldn't put that better, thanks.
1. There's a lot of bad maths about this war. The southern front, is at a bare minimum 10,000 km2 (grossly underestimated). The idea that there are mines everywhere is bollocks. There are a lot of mines in specific areas.
2. If every time the ZSU have to stop after breaking through the VSRF defences and wait for the counter attack then it means that the ZSU are incapable of following a breakthrough. Mines are irrelevant, artillery is irrelevant, airforce is irrelevant. If the ZSU are incapable of flooding any gap and pushing even 5km (which is 10 min even by tank) then it's their own fault. Unless you want to argue that the VSRF are constantly counter attacking through minefields.
3. More bad maths is the idea that the VSRF are constantly putting multiple brigades against a single ZSU one. We know that the VSRF do not have more troops than the ZSU overall. If the VSRF were really doing that, then there would be vast gaps everywhere. Unless of course, the ZSU are so incompetent that they are completely incapable of exploiting empty space.
4. What exactly do you need long range missiles for? The ZSU received storm shadow/scalp and have been using those a lot. They have gmlrs, they have jdams. What do you need long range missiles from the US for? Just cause it's nice to have more? Sure, it's always nice to have more, but what capability would that provide beyond what they already have?
Just on the point of the VSRF sending how many of who to plug up a gap located at where, aren't they using their secondary (reserve) forces for this, and thus isn't the issue to do with the rate at which they're being used up, rather than opening gaps
Yes, you are correct, that appears to be the case. However, the ZSU have at least the same number of troops overall. There is no reason for them to be outnumbered while on the attack, when they have the initiative and can attack when and where they choose. What's even more inexplicable is the idea that they are being counter attacked by larger forces completely within the range of their own, now superior, artillery and even mortars. That should never happen, the ZSU should flood the gaps and smash those counter attacks on the move like they did a few times during the kharkiv offensive. If the VSRF were fighting like this in early 2022 they would never have taken Izyum, or Kherson, or Mariupol. The professional VSRF army, that no longer exists, definitely knew how to conduct offensives. Fortunately, for all of us, they were destroyed from the inside through the decisions of their idiotic political leaders. This isn't a uniquely Russian thing, the US army has been losing wars left, right and centre purely due to their idiotic political leaders as well.
"There is no reason for them to be outnumbered while on the attack" - except for thermobaric (vacuum) MLRS, i.e. TOS-1 and TOS-1A, which can destroy hundreds of soldiers with a single salvo.
"What's even more inexplicable is the idea that they are being counter attacked by larger forces completely within the range of their own, now superior, artillery and even mortars." - 1) amassing troops make them extremely vulnerable to the Russian MLRS. 2) The Russians, for some reason, have the maps for their own mine fields, and can transfer large amounts of troops without much danger from the mines. For the very same strange reason the Ukrainians don't have maps for the Russian mine fields, and thus cannot transport troops at will.
"If the VSRF were fighting like this in early 2022 they would never have taken Izyum, or Kherson, or Mariupol." - Kherson was taken without a fight, while Mariupol was surrounded. Who and from where should have counterattacked the Russians in those cities?
Yes, the absolutely mighty TOS launchers with a terrifying range of 2-4 km. They are also so inconspicuous that it is impossible to ever find them. I guess if the mines are 15 km deep and the ZSU have managed less than 10km at most so far, then the tos launchers must have been placed literally in the middle of minefields. The VSRF also have thermobaric grenades, the ultimate weapon for which there is no solution.
According to you, amassing troops is only dangerous to the ZSU, despite having a significant artillery and mlrs advantage over the VSRF.
Can you start using numbers because every time you write, it sounds as if you thought that an attack by a brigade was conducted over a width of 50 metres. Do you realise that it's in fact many km? Just during the southern offensive, there were 6 axes of attack stretching over 100-200km. Each axis was many km wide.
Yes, the VSRF have the maps of some of their minefields but by now it should be pretty clear to the ZSU where the mine free lanes are, as they have been repelling counter attacks for 2 months now, more or less in the same area. Are the GUR and army recon so utterly hopeless they can't even see 10 km ahead of their front troops?
"The southern front, is at a bare minimum 10,000 km2 (grossly underestimated)." - Frontlines are measured in length (km), not in area (km2).
"The idea that there are mines everywhere is bollocks." - the mines are probably only on the foremost 10 to 15 km deep, hundreds of km wide. Lots of them. You probably underestimate the Soviet weapons stocks.
"Mines are irrelevant, artillery is irrelevant, airforce is irrelevant." - Please explain why.
"If the ZSU are incapable of flooding any gap and pushing even 5km (which is 10 min even by tank) then it's their own fault." - tanks tend to be immobilized by the very firtst anti-tank mines they ride on. And there are multiple mines per square meter on those fields now.
"More bad maths is the idea that the VSRF are constantly putting multiple brigades against a single ZSU one. We know that the VSRF do not have more troops than the ZSU overall. If the VSRF were really doing that, then there would be vast gaps everywhere." - ZSU rotates units to and from the frontline, and need to protect the borders with RF and Belarus. VSRF does not do rotation in the South, and does not care about its borders as the West did not let ZSU use their weapons on Russian land.
"What exactly do you need long range missiles for?" - 1) There are weapon storage sites in Crimea. 2) The longer range airplane-launched missiles are, the safer are the airplanes that launch them. And Ukraine has no way to replace airplanes it loses.
This is honestly gibberish. I said front, not front line because a strategic offensive is measured in length and depth, that is in km2. The ZSU offensive had to penetrate only 30-40km and it would've been a complete success, as that would allow their tube artillery to have fire control over the entire VSRF rear. That is why the ZSU should have expected the VSRF to already contest the very first line. If they didn't then the whole planning was fubar.
The whole point of demining is that you dont just follow the first vehicle until it's immobilised. The ZSU are bad at doing it. You keep writing this nonsense about mines and atgms as if nobody has ever faced those or this was some incredible, previously unknown tactic. Kill boxes is the most generic, standard anti tank tactic taught in any decent army. The ZSU have been doing it themselves. If you are trying to defend the ZSU incompetence by painting them as retards, who could not possibly have known, then it's your choice but leave me out of it.
Nobody cares who is rotating what, that is the decision of command. There is 0 reasons to be outnumbered when conducting an attack. It is terrible planning, incompetent command, utterly stupid and destined to fail.
There are no US missiles that have a superior range to storm shadow that either exist or the US would ever transfer to Ukraine. Therefore this entire point is irrelevant.
"The whole point of demining is that you dont just follow the first vehicle until it's immobilised. The ZSU are bad at doing it." - Please explain in more details for people who did not have any practical experience of demining. Then we will be able to discuss your perfect plan under the current circumstances at the Southern front.
"You keep writing this nonsense about mines and atgms as if nobody has ever faced those or this was some incredible, previously unknown tactic." - Who has faced continuous line of mines 10-15 km deep with no air superiority, under ATGM and MLRS fire and kamikaze drone attacks? What were their casualties? How did they break through? You should know those operations as you state that this is more or less common kind of an armed operation.
"There is 0 reasons to be outnumbered when conducting an attack." - If the enemy amasses their soldiers, you should not amass yours unless you are ready for high casualties when your lines are struck with area damage weapons. Ukraine does not have those 8 millions of soldiers the USSR bought the WW2 victory with.
"There are no US missiles that have a superior range to storm shadow that either exist or the US would ever transfer to Ukraine. Therefore this entire point is irrelevant." - 1) Had you read the Tom's previous post https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/saints-thunders-and-lightnings-part-340 you would have noted that the Russian air defense covers the area behind the Ukrainian positions, and their air-to-air missiles hit Ukrainian aircraft far away from the front line. Thus the air-based missile cannot be fired anywhere close to the frontline. 2) Ukraine is very short on the combat aircraft with no way to obtain more planes anywhere soon. No aircraft = no Storm Shadow missile strikes. 3) Tom wrote that France promised to provide 15 pieces of SCALP EG. Do you think that is enough to counter the Russian logistics? Please consider the Russian air defenses, well described in the linked article.
By the way, you did not propose any plan for demining during out previous discussion https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-6-august-2023-robotyne/comment/22074860 I will add below the questions from that thread, just to provide more context:
"No amount of excuses will change the simple fact that the ZSU are incapable of coordinating multiple large units in offensive operations, at the same place and time." -- Did you already hint at the unmined place you know in the South front line? Or estimated the time needed for the sappers to clear the 15 km deep mine field for the armour to enter the assault? And which kind of forces is protecting the sappers at the 10 km range from other kinds of forces that stay back waiting for the sappers? And what protects the amassed assault from guided bombs, MLRS and thermobaric weapons?
You take pride in NATO forces beating up the Arab insurgents who don't have enough MLRS, not to say of air defense or vacuum bombs. Was NATO ever able to suppress a layered air defense featuring something like S400? Was it able to fight with zero air support and very limited artillery? Did it ever counter an enemy that used drones for 24/7 intelligence and guided attacks? Did they attack through kilometers deep continuous mine fields with no cover under all those conditions?
Russia inherited the largest part of the USSR military and added to it some modern capabilities. The USSR stocks were enough to keep the entire NATO block busy to counterbalance. And now you think Ukraine is to be blamed because it does not win against all that force after being granted some 1% of older NATO resources.
Mines and dealing with them is at least 100 years old. I do not have to prepare specific plans because I am not part of the genstab. There are many ways to deal with minefields and they have been done in many wars, least during ww2. The VSRF managed to push through many minefields in the East during this war as well. Start with not attacking along obvious areas, very slowly, with small units, without artillery support and anti air. Maybe that would help? If your argument is that they don't have those, then they shouldn't have conducted this operation in the first place. If you don't have the means to do something, don't do it.
Most VSRF drones can be easily jammed if you have the means. These are not some secret high tech systems. Even the VSRF has a variety of jammers. If the ZSU did not prepare to do it, then they planned badly.
This whole thing with drones is getting tiresome. These are loud, low tech crap, that can be shot down with small arms fire with a bit of luck, as has been filmed many times. If you are planning an offensive and you don't even have 50 cals in abundance in such a relatively small area, then you planned badly.
Your idiotic insistence on Ukrainians being born warriors and NATO armies somehow wanking through their military careers, is really starting to grate on me. The ZSU, especially today, is an army comprised of individual gems among a sea of shit. Tens of millions of dollars, if not more, in bribes in regional recruitment centres. Zelensky has just announced the firing of all heads of those. Brigades that cannot fight as brigades but have to fight as individual battalions because their command staff is untrained and incompetent. You are questioning militaries that are superior in every way. Compare Desert Storm to this crap. Entire tank divisions in combat. Even the invasion of Iraq, no comparison. After 1.5 years, the ZSU can't even get a brigade to fight using all of it's resources.
Everything about the southern offensive is a shitshow. Incompetently planned, incompetently led, incompetently fought. The ZSU used leo2s and bradleys as armoured taxis, like morons. May as well used shitty soviet tanks with exploding turrets. I would love to see the reports of how many leos have actually fired a round directly at a Russian fighting vehicle. I haven't seen any videos of that, so I hope it's because of opsec.
As far as casualties are concerned, this fairy tale of minimising losses, so fighting like idiots is a good story for propaganda. A successful breakthrough operation virtually always results in fewer casualties overall. There is no more costly way to fight wars then through attrition. What's more, from the scant information we do have, it is almost certain that the ZSU genstab itself planned a week or max 2 long strategic offensive. They did not want to conduct this attritional fight. However, I am sure you know better than them. They surely expected to make announcements to the world how the offensive was fubar.
This is what I was wondering as well but it seems they would need time and resources to do that. They're still using large sections of the rear for their operations so I dont think they can mine these areas. I also dont think the Ukrainians are letting them mine in the rear using mechanized equipment at least. But just before Tokmak there are still a lot of mined areas.
"Plus, some say that there are still lots of Pudding-fans between the locals."
Yep, you're absolutely right. Some people still believe in good Pudding "and nothing else matters"© Sad, but true :(
Probably didn’t want them reporting Ukrainian positions.
Thank you Tom.
What do you think about explanation that poo-tin orders to stay put and defend lost positions are his attempt at delaying game - exchanging bodies for time? In hope that either West running out of shells and will to support Ukraine? While he is training new bodies for the front line.
I do think he's waiting for US elections in November next year, hoping the FSB-asset might win again.
'Russians' - not. But, the FSB and GRU - yes. And they know how the US oligarchy works.
....while Republicans who do not dare challenging the FSB-asset 'have the spine'....?