What scares me out of all of this is the "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger" effect.
Russia was defeatable with what Ukraine had and quick issue of what the West had on hand and ready to send. They could have defeated Russia, or at least driven them out of mainland Ukraine and cut them off in Crimea-- any time from the first day o…
What scares me out of all of this is the "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger" effect.
Russia was defeatable with what Ukraine had and quick issue of what the West had on hand and ready to send. They could have defeated Russia, or at least driven them out of mainland Ukraine and cut them off in Crimea-- any time from the first day of the full invasion to the completion of the Surovikin Line (100s of miles of defenses covered with 100,000s of mines.).
But no, Biden and Jake Sullivan were deterred by Putin's words.
So since then, even the idiots in Russia have begun to learn lessons. This is where a centralized system that is horrible on the battlefield pays dividends in the rear. They were able to ramp up war time production, change enough operationally and tactically, (While hiding behind the Surovikin Line) to stay in the fight. Long enough to change the calculus. Because a "man" in Russia is just as expendable as a mortar shell, they figured out that all they needed to do was be patient. Then they could also keep parts of Ukraine and test the west to see how they would react to another incursion, this time in a NATO country.
They confirmed that the west will act by committee. Deliberate, blame, talk tough, campaign, in-fight long enough for a bridge/beach head to be established in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. They will then stop Russia, allow Russia to keep its gains, and sue for peace in exchange to "save lives". In short, the west has given a master class in how to invite a future invasion. They have shown how slow they are in arming allies, how sanctions don't work, how to use our democratic systems against us.
If I were in the Baltics or in Taiwan, I would be scared. Very very scared. War by committee is what Putin was counting on. He was right.
Sure... he thought he would be in Kyiv in 3 days. But he also had played out other scenarios to make sure the invasion was a win-win even if it didn't meet its original objectives.
Just like a virus or bacterial infection you don't completely kill, it has grown stronger. The next time you have to face it, it will be stronger still. It will be the devil you don't know, instead of the devil you do.
The only thing good that is happened is the US DoD procurement system has been scrapped. A new crop of defense contractors has been born. They are leaner, faster, and better equipped to iterate.
Poland, militarily, has taken the Russian threat seriously. As has the Nords and the Baltics.
If they are smart, they will create a sub group of NATO, a defense alliance, that relies only on each other if NATO fails to act or deter. From Ukraine to Finland. Then, and only then, will I be sure that we are learning lessons at least as fast as Russia.
(Thank you Peter. I originally said Balkans instead of Baltics. )
Now you begin to see why a catastrophic election in the USA that rips the country in half could ironically improve the situation.
Imagine the 60% of US GDP and military might controlled by the Blue States coupled to the power and will of the countries that are right next to russia and China. Unity is futile when it produces leadership by committee.
But hey, I'm from the West Coast, the part of the country that still innovates.
Andrew, I love your writing, but the prospect of th US splitting up is close to zero. It may be the best way to go, but it’s not happening. What will happen is paralysis from continuing political division due to a 240 year old, unchanging governmental structure. BTW, I live in Seattle. Let’s Go METS!
As was said of the USSR until it was suddenly gone. Structural kabooms happen, and the USA's institutions are outdated as hell. Paralysis in a federation eventually leads to separation.
A third of Americans already support their region seceding (brightlinewatch actually studied this), so give the current federal deadlock another decade or two to fester and *someone* is going to decide to play 1861 on some level. Even Americans dialects are diverging, and language increasingly correlates with politics. Add in The Big Sort, growing wealth imbalances between regions - might take until the Boomer generation is gone, but the USA is already in the process of dividing.
Could happen when political entropy creates political imagination as an answer. Already there’s talk in East of the Cascades Oregon joining Idaho, but where to buy pot if that occurs?!
This was never the case. The what if scenarios never include Russia moving to defensive and calling a mobilisation în March instead of September after NATO sends all its weapons to Ukraine.
This is an industrial war and battles are not decisive. Industrial production of weapons is the key to victory.
I think you're talking about the Baltics here, not the Balkans.
I think it's too late for Russia to learn its lessons. People are too trusting to take Russian statements about their military production and general economy at face value. It was never Russian military production that scared the world, it was their inherited USSR stockpiles. With those almost spent Russia can't outproduce Germany, let alone the entire EU. I only hope Ukraine holds out long enough to see the fruits of their disposal of said stockpiles.
Thank you for your correction! That's what I get for writing in between classes instead of at my desk.
I think you are right. But what worries me is Russia becoming China's proxy trouble maker. Oil revenue plus becoming a full client of China means they could rearm very quickly.
Remains to be seen. But during this war it became quite obvious quality and volumes of modern Russian military tech is not up to standard. They're predominantly using USSR-built T-72, planes and artillery, and producing USSR-designed T-90 and Iskanders and re-labeled Chinese drones. They already have a war economy, full employment and secret Chinese funding, and they still barely manage to arm 10-20% of their army with Soviet tech from 1990, the rest being older stuff pulled out of stockpiles. I don't see the case for rapid rearmament, they're building too few stuff and too old stuff to be taken seriously.
Still the Nordics, Baltics, Poland and the Balkans have everything to gain from Russian defeat as that would make Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and maybe even Belarus and Russia into proper trading partners. While a Russian victory will start a 2nd cold war where everyone outside the EU and NATO is too scared to confront Russia and can be strong-armed into being a Russian vassal. Russia will never have a fighting chance even agasints the EU, let alone NATO, but it's still capable of doing enough damage to make fighting them too costly to be worth it. And I imagine it has similar implications for Chinese neighbours being bullied even if not invaded.
What scares me out of all of this is the "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger" effect.
Russia was defeatable with what Ukraine had and quick issue of what the West had on hand and ready to send. They could have defeated Russia, or at least driven them out of mainland Ukraine and cut them off in Crimea-- any time from the first day of the full invasion to the completion of the Surovikin Line (100s of miles of defenses covered with 100,000s of mines.).
But no, Biden and Jake Sullivan were deterred by Putin's words.
So since then, even the idiots in Russia have begun to learn lessons. This is where a centralized system that is horrible on the battlefield pays dividends in the rear. They were able to ramp up war time production, change enough operationally and tactically, (While hiding behind the Surovikin Line) to stay in the fight. Long enough to change the calculus. Because a "man" in Russia is just as expendable as a mortar shell, they figured out that all they needed to do was be patient. Then they could also keep parts of Ukraine and test the west to see how they would react to another incursion, this time in a NATO country.
They confirmed that the west will act by committee. Deliberate, blame, talk tough, campaign, in-fight long enough for a bridge/beach head to be established in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. They will then stop Russia, allow Russia to keep its gains, and sue for peace in exchange to "save lives". In short, the west has given a master class in how to invite a future invasion. They have shown how slow they are in arming allies, how sanctions don't work, how to use our democratic systems against us.
If I were in the Baltics or in Taiwan, I would be scared. Very very scared. War by committee is what Putin was counting on. He was right.
Sure... he thought he would be in Kyiv in 3 days. But he also had played out other scenarios to make sure the invasion was a win-win even if it didn't meet its original objectives.
Just like a virus or bacterial infection you don't completely kill, it has grown stronger. The next time you have to face it, it will be stronger still. It will be the devil you don't know, instead of the devil you do.
The only thing good that is happened is the US DoD procurement system has been scrapped. A new crop of defense contractors has been born. They are leaner, faster, and better equipped to iterate.
Poland, militarily, has taken the Russian threat seriously. As has the Nords and the Baltics.
If they are smart, they will create a sub group of NATO, a defense alliance, that relies only on each other if NATO fails to act or deter. From Ukraine to Finland. Then, and only then, will I be sure that we are learning lessons at least as fast as Russia.
(Thank you Peter. I originally said Balkans instead of Baltics. )
Now you begin to see why a catastrophic election in the USA that rips the country in half could ironically improve the situation.
Imagine the 60% of US GDP and military might controlled by the Blue States coupled to the power and will of the countries that are right next to russia and China. Unity is futile when it produces leadership by committee.
But hey, I'm from the West Coast, the part of the country that still innovates.
Andrew, I love your writing, but the prospect of th US splitting up is close to zero. It may be the best way to go, but it’s not happening. What will happen is paralysis from continuing political division due to a 240 year old, unchanging governmental structure. BTW, I live in Seattle. Let’s Go METS!
As was said of the USSR until it was suddenly gone. Structural kabooms happen, and the USA's institutions are outdated as hell. Paralysis in a federation eventually leads to separation.
A third of Americans already support their region seceding (brightlinewatch actually studied this), so give the current federal deadlock another decade or two to fester and *someone* is going to decide to play 1861 on some level. Even Americans dialects are diverging, and language increasingly correlates with politics. Add in The Big Sort, growing wealth imbalances between regions - might take until the Boomer generation is gone, but the USA is already in the process of dividing.
Could happen when political entropy creates political imagination as an answer. Already there’s talk in East of the Cascades Oregon joining Idaho, but where to buy pot if that occurs?!
This was never the case. The what if scenarios never include Russia moving to defensive and calling a mobilisation în March instead of September after NATO sends all its weapons to Ukraine.
This is an industrial war and battles are not decisive. Industrial production of weapons is the key to victory.
I think you're talking about the Baltics here, not the Balkans.
I think it's too late for Russia to learn its lessons. People are too trusting to take Russian statements about their military production and general economy at face value. It was never Russian military production that scared the world, it was their inherited USSR stockpiles. With those almost spent Russia can't outproduce Germany, let alone the entire EU. I only hope Ukraine holds out long enough to see the fruits of their disposal of said stockpiles.
Thank you for your correction! That's what I get for writing in between classes instead of at my desk.
I think you are right. But what worries me is Russia becoming China's proxy trouble maker. Oil revenue plus becoming a full client of China means they could rearm very quickly.
Remains to be seen. But during this war it became quite obvious quality and volumes of modern Russian military tech is not up to standard. They're predominantly using USSR-built T-72, planes and artillery, and producing USSR-designed T-90 and Iskanders and re-labeled Chinese drones. They already have a war economy, full employment and secret Chinese funding, and they still barely manage to arm 10-20% of their army with Soviet tech from 1990, the rest being older stuff pulled out of stockpiles. I don't see the case for rapid rearmament, they're building too few stuff and too old stuff to be taken seriously.
Still the Nordics, Baltics, Poland and the Balkans have everything to gain from Russian defeat as that would make Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and maybe even Belarus and Russia into proper trading partners. While a Russian victory will start a 2nd cold war where everyone outside the EU and NATO is too scared to confront Russia and can be strong-armed into being a Russian vassal. Russia will never have a fighting chance even agasints the EU, let alone NATO, but it's still capable of doing enough damage to make fighting them too costly to be worth it. And I imagine it has similar implications for Chinese neighbours being bullied even if not invaded.