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Researching Ukraine's avatar

What scares me out of all of this is the "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger" effect.

Russia was defeatable with what Ukraine had and quick issue of what the West had on hand and ready to send. They could have defeated Russia, or at least driven them out of mainland Ukraine and cut them off in Crimea-- any time from the first day of the full invasion to the completion of the Surovikin Line (100s of miles of defenses covered with 100,000s of mines.).

But no, Biden and Jake Sullivan were deterred by Putin's words.

So since then, even the idiots in Russia have begun to learn lessons. This is where a centralized system that is horrible on the battlefield pays dividends in the rear. They were able to ramp up war time production, change enough operationally and tactically, (While hiding behind the Surovikin Line) to stay in the fight. Long enough to change the calculus. Because a "man" in Russia is just as expendable as a mortar shell, they figured out that all they needed to do was be patient. Then they could also keep parts of Ukraine and test the west to see how they would react to another incursion, this time in a NATO country.

They confirmed that the west will act by committee. Deliberate, blame, talk tough, campaign, in-fight long enough for a bridge/beach head to be established in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. They will then stop Russia, allow Russia to keep its gains, and sue for peace in exchange to "save lives". In short, the west has given a master class in how to invite a future invasion. They have shown how slow they are in arming allies, how sanctions don't work, how to use our democratic systems against us.

If I were in the Baltics or in Taiwan, I would be scared. Very very scared. War by committee is what Putin was counting on. He was right.

Sure... he thought he would be in Kyiv in 3 days. But he also had played out other scenarios to make sure the invasion was a win-win even if it didn't meet its original objectives.

Just like a virus or bacterial infection you don't completely kill, it has grown stronger. The next time you have to face it, it will be stronger still. It will be the devil you don't know, instead of the devil you do.

The only thing good that is happened is the US DoD procurement system has been scrapped. A new crop of defense contractors has been born. They are leaner, faster, and better equipped to iterate.

Poland, militarily, has taken the Russian threat seriously. As has the Nords and the Baltics.

If they are smart, they will create a sub group of NATO, a defense alliance, that relies only on each other if NATO fails to act or deter. From Ukraine to Finland. Then, and only then, will I be sure that we are learning lessons at least as fast as Russia.

(Thank you Peter. I originally said Balkans instead of Baltics. )

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Vici81's avatar

I hope the Patriot elements hit were not from the Romanian battery recently sent over. It was the latest version with the latest missiles, new.

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