Ukraine War, 10 May 2023: Ministry of Intrigue

Hello everybody!

As announced yesterday, here are few details on one of latest Ukrainian counterattacks in Bakhmut.

Guess, you’ve ‘heard‘ it in the social media, meanwhile: essentially, Prigorzhin is complaining about ‘some 72^nd Brigade’ and this running away; losing kilometres of frontline; he’s fiercely complaining about the Keystone Cops in Moscow, and that Wagner had to save the day….and you might have heard about the 3^rd Assault Brigade defeating the 72^nd and making ‘significant advances’…

So, what has happened, when and where…?

Settings

Essentially, after months of critical shortages on artillery ammo and heavy infantry weapons, Ukrainians have – finally – received both. Plenty of both. So much so, the last 4-5 days they’re shooting ‘at will’: as much as necessary and whenever necessary, without any kind of limits in expenditure.

Moreover, they were in the process of rotating some of their units in and out of Bakhmut. As explained earlier, ZSU is trying to keep its units inside Bakhmut for only limited periods of time. Nevertheless, such assets like the 93^rd Mech and the 3^rd Assault are fighting there for four- and three months already: they were only able to rotate single their battalions (or elements of these) in- and out of the town.

On the contrary, the last five months, the Russians were not really ‘rotating’ their units in- and out of Bakhmut: depleted units were left inside the town, convicts were spent by dozens of thousands, and ever additional units were brought in. As a consequence, numerous of their ‘regiments’ and ‘brigades’ are down to company-size (200-300 troops), and completely exhausted. Nevertheless, their generals kept pushing – until realising available troops can’t go on any more. Thus, something like about a week ago, and in the light of a growing number of panicky withdrawals of different of exhausted units, they did replace a few of exausted VDV and VSRF units.

Now, in and immediately around Bakhmut, there are three primary combat zones, meanwhile:

-          Road 0506 north of Hromove; ZSU has a battalion each of the 92^nd Mech there; the Russians are assaulting with three regiments of the VDV;

-          The complex in western outskirts of what’s left of Bakhmut, including the Children Hospital, Postal Office No.1, and the quarter with private homes north of them (plus what the Russians call ‘Citadel’, the hill further west), and the area north-east of it; ZSU has a battalion each of the 125^th and 241^st TD Brigades, plus one from the Presidential Guards Brigade there (the 93^rd Mech was meanwhile withdrawn); the Russians are primarily attacking with Wagner;

-          South-western outskirts of Bakhmut, including the Road 0504, that hill over Klishchivka, and the Siverskyi-Donets – Donbass Canal; ZSU has elements of the 3^rd and 5^th Assault, plus the 80^th Airborne there; the Russians have something like a full division of VDV in total, plus what’s left of two motor rifle brigades.  

Action

Both sides were aiming to hit the other as this was rotating exhausted units out and bringing in new ones. Problem (for the Russians) was that the ‘sudden re-activation’ of Ukrainian artillery came as a very nasty surprise (was that a new Russian Army record in turret tossing?): after all the months of Ukrainians holding back with their artillery fire, they are simply not used to find themselves on the receiving end of so many shells deployed as precisely.

Just how nasty became obvious when the 3^rd Assault was sent to clear the Russian-controlled bridgehead west of the Siversky Donets – Donbass Canal. This was held by the 72^nd Motor Rifle Brigade (VSRF). Ukrainians attacked from two sides (approx. west to east and south to north). As first, they blew up one or two of its BMPs carrying elements of a newly-arrived Russian battalion and panicked its infantry to flee. The commander of the Russian brigade rushed his second battalion to the frontline, but this panicked when hit by artillery and infantry attacks - and run away over the Canal. A 2,000-metres-wide and 500-metres-deep sector of the Russian frontline collapsed.

When hearing about this, Wagner commanders in Bakhmut – already nervous because of Prigozhin’s constant complaints about the ‘Ministry of Intrigue’ (Keystone Cops in Moscow), lack of ammunition, and warning about ‘Ukrainian counteroffensive on the flanks of their advance into Bakhmut’ – assessed that Ukrainians were about to advance all the way to Klishchivka. Obviously, there was no option but to stop assaults into western Bakhmut and rush at least one of Wagner’s assault groups – reinforced by at least one of the VDV – to the Canal with the aim of stopping Ukrainian advance and re-establishing the frontline.

Obviously, when troops are on the move, they are exposed in the open. Moreover, after securing positions of the 72^nd Motor Rifle, the 3^rd Assault stopped and entrenched itself. Thus, this Wagner and VDV assault groups run straight into an ambush. Result?

To quote one of involved Ukrainian troops: ‘Wagner has shown a masterclass in running’.

While some Ukrainian sources are claiming as many as 500 Russians for killed, the 3^rd Assault collected at least 64, possibly 87 Russian killed and 5 prisoners, knocked out or captured one or two BMPs, several mortars and the main forward ammunition depot of the 72^nd Motor Rifle, and reached the Canal.

Not sure this still from a video is shown the ‘trail of retreat’ of the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade, but: gauging by reports from troops of the 3rd Assault, it is ‘closely reminiscent’ to what the battlefield there is looking like.

Lessons Learned

Whoever wants to ask me a questions like ‘is this Ukrainian counteroffensive’ or – and worst of all – ‘is that offensive going to end the war’…: oh dear… please, give me a break. This is a mere ‘spoiling counterattack’ that ended particularly well.

Sure, it exposed multiple Russian weaknesses. It has shown that their ‘regular’ units can barely hold – or not hold at all – the line when assaulted by well-supported, well-commanded, and well-trained Ukrainian troops. It has shown how nervous are the Russian commanders in the Bakhmut area, too.

However, it has also shown just how quickly can the Russians ‘move their reserves behind the frontline’. Foremost, in grand total, this one clash matters next to nothing. All that matters in the ‘black box’ I’m naming the ‘System Putin’, are two things:

a) that Putin remains in power and

b) ‘commanders (whether VDV, VSRF, Wagner or else) follow procedures’.

The former is obvious because, all that matters – in grand total – in Russia is who is in charge in Moscow and ‘Pieter’ (St. Petersburg). The latter is related to the requirement commanders to act according to their orders, regardless the consequences. If they do, they’re celebrated and decorated, regardless of results. How many Russians get killed: doesn’t matter. Not the least. At most, ‘plenty of killed Russians’ is ‘proof’ that commanders and their units are ‘fighting’, ‘trying’, that they are following orders.

As should be crystal clear by now, this attack changed absolutely nothing in this regards - just like all the Ukrainian defence successes and earlier successful offensives changed nothing. For that to happen, Russians must suffer much more massive defeats.

Finally, please everybody – no matter if journalists, presences in the social media and the public, or the idiotic talking-heads in Washington DC and similar places – stop all the daydreaming about ‘Ukrainian counteroffensive’, this being anything like ‘decisive’, ‘winning the war’ and whatever other pipe-dreams are coming to your minds. The outcome of this one Ukrainian attack is ‘nicely’ showing the consequences of frenzying people into all sorts of pipe-dreams about ‘counteroffensive’.  

Please, realise, finally: this is no football match, and surely no Superbowl where ‘the entire season is decided by a single game’ – and no availability of the internet (nor ‘other sorts of presence in the mass-media’) is granting anybody the right to wet him/herself (in public) while fantasising about the sports and cooking, ‘tactics’ and places of attack, outlooks and results – all before anything happens.

This is a war.

A damn serious affair in which lots of people are getting killed, maimed, or damaged in other fashion, forever, every single day. Thus, stuff your sensationalism, and boasting, and the ‘likes’ in the social media where the Sun never shines: learn to be patient, to shut up, and let the ‘f…. generals’ of the ZSU do their job, as they prefer, as and when they find suitable.