Hello everybody! For today, and a little bit ‘overdue’, something like a ‘review’ of the state of this war as of mid-January 2024. Once again, and because that ‘campaign’ is not letting up, I’ll start with a few words for a growing army of all those – especially in the USA – still (or: ‘now even more’) demanding, insisting etc. on ‘negotiations’ (with Russia) to end this war.
Everything is fine, the main thing is that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. I am sure that if she had refused it, under the guarantees of Russia, the States and Great Britain, then now Ukraine would have received everything it needed, as long as it did not fire a nuclear missile. A good signal for everyone in this world. Good in quotes
Ukraine is running nuclear stations, it can - and should - build nukes. Maybe this will force to wake up our lethargic President who is shitless scared of "escalations" which corrupt coward morons like Samuel Sharap and Jake Sullivan whispering in his ears.
From what I read on the topic it's not as clear-cut, as with most things related to the fall of the USSR. Apparently while Ukraine had nuclear weapons on its territory, they were in bases staffed by Russian soldiers. So in practice there wasn't much Ukraine could do to take control of those weapons.
Only partially true with respect to strategic nukes (and ICBM), but completely false with respect to tactical nukes (which was the bulk of them, ca. 1000). Ukraine fully owed and operated them.
I'm following a couple of "Russia-understanding" folks in the English and Polish (my mother tongue) social media, and try to read some "not-for-export" propaganda (Julia Davis has a great Twitter account for it), and the propaganda line is sth like "Ukrainians failed in their most recent offensive, which means they will never be able to conduct one in the future, which means they cannot defend", ie. two huge leap-of-faith non sequiturs. I'm wondering if the political leadership in Kremlin hasn't bought into this as well.
The second theme is that it's the dastardly West that pushes Ukrainians to continue fighting, and the moment the weapon deliveries stop, Ukrainian army will magically crumble or realize they are in fact Russians or sth. I have some friends from Ukraine (anecdotal evidence), but also saw polling -- it's an illusion, Ukrainians will keep fighting even if left alone. The way they speak about Russians reminds me what we in Poland thought about Germans in the 2WW -- such an existential threat, that death is preferable over giving up. And for a reason, everyone has a dead friend or family member, everyone remembers what the "separatists" were doing in the Donbas prior to 2022 and what was found in mass graves all over liberated territories (among my friends, Izyum is actually more spoken of than Bucha).
I think it's important to explain to our glorious leaders that either the West gets its stuff together and delivers the help Ukraine needs, or we will see a very long conflict with many more dead on both sides. You just can't make a negotiated peace with someone, who lives in fantasy world like the crazy people in Kremlin.
As a Pole I agree 100% with the above. Fact is: russian imperialism is persistent for centuries, no matter who ruled Russia/USSR. We have this bitter joke here: With whom Russia has a border? With whomever it wants. And with whom does it want? With nobody.
The only way to stop them is to beat the living shit out of them. We did that in 1920, the Finns did in 1940-41. There is no other option as they will stop at nothing else, the methods they use to conquer and russify the populations did not change from the tsarist times.
The Romanovs were really good at empire building. The Russian empire grew, on average, 55 sq.miles (142 sq.km ) per day, or 20.000 square miles per year since 1613 when the first Romanov came to the throne.
The steppe is full of the bones of the people who resisted Russian empire expansion.
Who are your friends? Are they male 25-60 who are yet not in the army?
If so , why arent they in the army yet. (the same logic is true to the pole results. ) If not, what right do they have to demand war till victory and 1991 borders? This is complete bulshit that ukraine will keep fighting.
Really? And you know it because ? Lets assume its true that 70% of population is willing to fight till the borders of 1991. Then I have one simple question, how come there are no volunteers in enlistment office as far as from late spring 2022. And one more question how come enlistment office representatives are conducting raids all over Ukraine including Kyiv (which did not happen before)?
Everyone I spoke with seems to agree, including some people who are in the army and some who are not, that Ukraine will not surrender and will kick the shit of Russians, either with West’s help, or without. Suck on that.
Putin's Russia is imploding and taking Ukraine down with them. Ukraine will likely
not be crushed, but badly mauled, with PTSD a life long affliction for so many of those that survive. No win here, just survival. Sorrow and rage and bitterness for so, so many.
The institutions and countries we have relied on to stop intolerable aggression have proved to be so weak or compromised, while Li continues to create economic dependencies, waiting to make his move for world dominance.
Thanks Tom for realistic informations. Ukraine claims 30000 ru looses in december. You have said that RU is able to get 20000 or 25000 new soldier. If this looses are KIA or KIA + WIA in both cases it should be greater than hiring. Has RU increase recruiting process, skipping training or are UA number very far from reality? Have you got an estimate about RU looses? There is a lot of diffrent information, some says together 250000 KIA+ WOU but on other side there are reports that wounded are sending to fight, mobilisation in DOnbas, wagners., first wave of mobilization , recruitng whole 2023.... For me it looks that cca 1milion soldies must be send to UA and at least half of them is not fight ready now.
Please mind that my estimate for the VSRF being able to press 20,000-25,000 fresh troop into combat per month - is from the spring 2023. That's now almost a year ago. It would be foolish to think they didn't increase that capacity, ever since.
...as foolish as to blindly trust Ukrainian claims for the number of the Russians KIA, WIA, MIA etc...
The big problem with railway connection to Romania (and the West) is the different track gauge.
Most of Europe runs on 1435mm tracks, while Russia (and Ukraine) run on 1520mm tracks (originally, 1524mm, like in today's Finland).
That makes it impossible to build a seamless connection to the rail network of Ukraine, and it would necessitate a large transloading facility at the border (like in Brest near the Polish/Belorussian border), which then would be targeted by missiles
Like that "Rail Baltica" project being pushed by the EU, such projects take a long time and money. And it's not only the track width, there are different couplers (SA-3 instead of the UIC screw coupler), different loading gauge and air brakes, etc. - such a change would mean also a wholesale fleet replacement (locomotives, wagons, etc.) for UZ.
Not a simple task at all.
Funnily enough, the 1524mm width was not selected for defense reasons as the rumours say, but because each country in the 19th century was building their national rail system to serve their internal transportation needs, compatibility with neighboring networks wasn't a prime consideration. So, because the czar had employed a famous American engineer (George Washington Whistler), he selected the southern USA track gauge of five feet (yes, even USA had not a standard gauge then). Yes, five feet equals 1524mm.
I think a *wholesale* fleet replacement won't be required, since usually this "hybrid-track" is implemented as a three-rail solution, so that wagons of both widths can run on the same track.
Unfortunately, the 1520mm tracks aren't wide enough to work with a 3-track solution. You need four tracks and special sleepers if you want to run both European and Russian trains over the same route (and quite special, and costly, switches).
Like the border between Hungary and Ukraine below, these tracks can coexist for some distance:
Yeah, the PKP LHS is the only Polish route compatible with Soviet era tracks and infrastructure. It's mostly used for heavy haul traffic, and it would need to be optimized for container/fuel traffic, I don't know if there's a will for making major changes
From what I know there were passenger trains using this route, in 2022, for example a special train with the refugees used it, so I guess it can also be adapted for other uses like hauling military cargo. The company governing the line says they do haul 'dangerous' cargo, and there is a station that has the infrastructure to transfer the cars to the cars/platforms to the standard european gauge wheels so they should be able to handle containers there.
The problem is that you need a much larger scale of transshipment between 1435mm and 1520mm trains (at least as large as in Brest), if you want to transport a serious amount of freight over PKP LHS into Ukraine. So, if you want to move lots of containers, you would need gantry cranes, long sidings of Russian and European gauge running for at least 750 meters long, etc.
And exchanging bogies is no fun either, you need a large stock of these on hand if you want to keep a fast tempo (eg, a 40-wagon grain train needs 80 bogies on each side, and it may take 5-6 days before reaching its destination, unload the grain and return to the interchange terminal). Never mind air brake systems and couplers, which are very different.
Many of western citizens WANT to believe that putin really wants peace and WANT to believe that his request of "demilitarized Ukraine" is a good deal. The safety of Ukraine will be assured by UN. (Ahahahahah)
Yes they know the reality but they just care of their business, Ukrainian people's future is not important.
And they are so ipocrict that on next Shoah memorial day they will scream loudly "this mess shall not happen again!"
Regardless of where the final border between Ukraine and Russia ends up, he only way to insure a lasting peace is for Ukraine to be in NATO. Putin will only be deterred from future aggression stationing a couple of NATO divisions and air wings inside Ukraine.
Trouble is, NATO cannot accept a new member before they have settled any border disputes (that's why Romania had settled with Ukraine their dispute about Snake island before entering NATO - Ukraine kept the island, while Romania kept a part of the water).
And entering NATO requires a unanimous vote of approval by the members - because they are tied by their agreement to support each member in case it gets attacked. So, Ukraine still has a long way before entering NATO...
True, but should Ukraine decide to give up some Russian held territory in exchange for an armistice, they need NATO membership to make the armistice hold.
Even if Ukraine achieved an armistice with Russia (which hasn't given up their target of the elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty) with a large amount of territory (which is extremely hot potato for any Ukrainian government), how do you guarantee that Russians won't renege on their deal while Ukraine tries frantically to become a NATO member?
And I am pretty certain that Russia wouldn't accept such an armistice term (letting Ukraine join NATO), except if all their military power is destroyed.
Never mind that the majority of Ukraine population would be terribly angered by such a decision, which would be the downfall of any government which dared to decide that.
This is mostly hypothetical. As you say, Russia will not accept a peace that includes Ukraine joining NATO, unless Russia is defeated and has no choice. And for Ukraine to agree to an armistice without a guaranteed invitation to join NATO after an armistice is in place would only invite future Russian aggression. The upshot is that there is no path to peace with Putin. The US should give Ukraine everything the need or could use until Russia is driven from Ukraine.
I agree with your conclusion, the problem is that politics in Washington are so polarized and easy to malfunction thanks to a determined MAGA Republican group stance that we cannot depend too much on a sustained USA pipeline of equipment and ammunition.
Political bickering and showmanship are deemed more important in Washington, D.C. than destroying most Russian military power and helping Ukraine stay free and independent (and fiercely American-friendly)
It doesnt make any sense to give up any territory in return for NATO membership as well. Just look at Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhzia Oblasts. With these Russia will always have a very convenient Southern axis to attack Ukraine from. As well, Russia getting to keep the current part of the Donbas it occupies would lead to a frozen conflict over the Donbas no matter how future leaders spin it. The only resolution to this is actually Russia leaving Ukraine. Otherwise I think in our lifetime we'll eventually see a nuclear exchange between the two countries.
I cannot see this war (of attrition, no doubt) ending from a change of facts on the battlefield. The West seems focused on making Russia's war effort fall apart gradually from the inside - i mean, ATACMS just as the counter offensive winds up - come on! Perhaps we start to see this internal process in Russia -fuel strikes, eggs, poultry, high interest rates, mothers&wives clubs forming, etc. But is it realistic? I have heard from Russians that everything is a facade and one could see rapid change at any moment. It seems to me though that they could also succeed in transforming themselves into a society going through an invented 'existential struggle' on the magnitude of what we saw in WWII.
We shall know that Russia has entered this stage if/when Putin starts mobilizing Moscow and St.Petersburg residents instead of the poor devils in Yakutsk and other marginalized places...
Well, it is a total war for both UA and RF, so it will be long, it will be fought in every way and in every field, it is a marathon. The one with the stronger economy and trained human resources will prevail. Fortunately for Ukraine, it doesn't take much of NATO's GDP to make its economy competitive.
That is the problem: the mass of Western policy-makers 'can't see' this war ending from a change on the battlefields either - primarily because neither them, nor their advisors, have an idea how to effect such a change. And the oligarchy paying them is not even interested in 'decisive victories' - but in ascertaining 'profit over years (better: decades), like in Afghanistan and Iraq'.
Thus, they're not even trying.
....and the Russians are already 'eyebrows deep' into 'existential struggle'.
I read Helion's series on the fall of South Vietnam last year followed by Stephen Green's "Living by the Sword." I feel dark parallels between how the West abandoned South Vietnam to supply Israel in the Yom Kippur War to what's going on now with Ukraine.
As far as I know was the population of South Vietnam far less backing their government compared to the Ukrainians now. Furthermore were the South Vietnamese only threatened with living under a communist dictatorship compared to the corrupt capitalistic one they were living in. Ukrainians are facing genozid.
Well, this report is not so sarcastic as usual. I do not think that all the news from Russia are of no importance. The conditions in Russian army seem to be terrible having in mind also the absurdity of the war. So the aim must be to kill and mutilate as many Russian soldiers as possible. When this war began in 2014 it was presumed that the losses of 50000 would be unsupportable for Russia, the same estimation was maid by Putler himself according to some publications. Now we are quite sure that Russian casualties exceed 200000 and nothing serious happens in Russia. I wonder if the collective West can draw adequate conclusions from such insensibility to human losses and feel the danger of it.
That's nothing new. Russians were traditionally indifferent to human losses (Marshal Zhukov was infamous for this attitude, even between Soviet military leaders, from what I remember).
Western societies became more peaceful maybe as a result of well-being of the Western citizens. Western culture though militaristic in its nature became more human. Last decades of the USSR were also not so cruel as Stalin's period. But Putler's Russia degraded to war-mongering state. Maybe the people as a whole are prone to aggression and domineering.
Note that the cataclysm of 1945 was a big loss for Prussian militarism.
As the people in Berlin experienced first hand the horrors of the war (besides air bombing campaign), destruction etc., they got a lesson they didn't receive at the end of World War I (the armistice of 1918 happened while Germany was still occupying territories outside Germany).
So, Germans were ripe for a change and decided "never again", then became merchants and peaceful people (while Israeli people were forced to become eternal soldiers during the same time, reversing centuries of stereotypes). Of course, the nuclear umbrella of USA helped western Europe to spend less on defense and more on rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure and raise the quality of life quite fast.
Well, from this 200.000 soldiers you have to substract
- DNR and LNR forces as they are not Russian soldiers
- PMC like Wagner, Storm Z, Redhood and what not - those are also no Russian soldiers as they are not within the Russian army chorus
- the point above includes also the prisoners, which are part of some non army whatever agreement if not directly engaged in an PMC
- the conscripted migrants into the army, as they are no Russian citizens
- the chechznians, burjats, dagestani and other minorities count also not in a Russian nationalist perspective
Compare that to the British statistics regarding the distribution of confirmed death and you most likely can put the Ukrainians account regarding KIA down to Puddings 50K number.
Thanks for the article. Just one correction: Poles hateUkraine for ages, and this hatred is not a Ukrainian gov's achievement at all. They hate us on genetic level. They played 'big brothers/friends forever' game in the beginning until they got all they needed: slaves,wifes, got re-armed, got HUGE market to sell their products because access to most of the other markets is blocked... After that, they shut 'iron curtain'. So, nothing to do with UA officials. Slovakia - no comments 🙄
Maybe, but if it still exists, then only in the Pole's mentality. Ukrainians had zero negative towards Poland and its people - until they started 'misbehave' last year all of a sudden'. Which came as quite a shock and huge disappointment to Ukrainians.
You are replying to someone who is either a russian troll or retarded. You really think there are Ukrainian slaves in Poland or any other eastern European country?
I know they are, and I know them personally. It started in Poland ages ago, and growing now.
Unfortunately. It's a well known fact btw. You can find lots of people's stories in appropriate groups. A few of my friends couldn't even come back to Ukraine - didn't have any money for tickets: didn't get paid enough (after slaving for months on the fields, agricultural business). That was ages ago. Today,girls suffer more than males (guess why, or read, or think - not too complicated to figure out the reason).
No, I'm not a troll - just familiar with situation, with country Poland (used to live there), and it's government policy. Still, there are plenty of great Polish people.
What well known fact? Almost all eastern european EU countries provided almost all actual support in arms, heavy equipment, munitions (especially soviet calibre), logistics, alternative trade routes, fuel, shelter for millions of refugees etc. On top of each and every government support, about as much if not more, in monetary terms, has been provided by individual citizens. From Bulgaria, all the way up to Estonia.
The level of stupidity, to say that any of those nations genetically hate Ukrainians, despite half of the ZSU currently driving Polish tanks and most of the air force flying Polish planes, is off the scale. To top it all, according to you they did it for slaves and wives. Yes, the entirety of eastern europe is one big criminal organisation desperately looking for ukrainian hookers. There are probably more ukrainian "slaves" in italy and germany than in any of those countries. I guess if you're Ukrainian, it would make some sense that you are unable to distinguish between organised crime and the government, in Ukraine it's one and the same.
Please educate me. Poland on its own has provided 350 tanks, including a dozen leopard 2s. Hundreds of IFVs, about 70 modern SPGs plus dozens soviet era howitzers. That is just Poland, Bulgaria essentially kept Ukraine in the fight in the first months of the war. The only reason why Ukraine still exists is because of the combined effort of eastern european EU countries. Unless you believe that the ZSU has been fighting every day with M777s HIMARS and MRAPs.
Yes, there are a few hundred sincere people in a nation of 37M. You are royally fucked in the head.
He's right, while you seem to be absolutely clueless about the topic - UA-PL relationship and, indeed, the well known polish government's ukrainophobia (any government), their real plans and motivation for any 'help' they provided, and what they get in return. If I could be bothered to argue with you, I wouldn't know where to start. Really, please familiarize yourself before lecturing people. At least, find and read what Ukrainian people say from their personal experience, and what Poles say these days about Ukrainians. BTW, did you know about borders blockage (supported by polish people in full)? About 'forever' embargo on Ukrainian exports to the EU initiated by Poland? About demographic crisis in Poland (30% birth decrease)? About renewing Army & arms as a result of giving old Soviet garbage to Ukraine? All that IS well known, at least in Poland and Ukraine .
Yes, about 1M Ukrainians living and working in Poland before the war did it because Poles hate them. Many more Ukrainians living and working there now are also there because Poles hate them. You're mixing domestic politics, election campaign, social media and real life. You are probably among idiots who claim poland was anti semitic before WW2. People like you just can never explain why there were more than 3M jews living in Poland and fighting for it, while 225k in tolerant France and 300k in the UK. Ukrainians must be the dumbest people in the world, to be able to travel to any country, yet they choose the one that deeply, genetically hates them. Or maybe it's you who's a complete tool.
Also, within a week of the invasion basically a town was set up at the border by ngos, volunteers and local government. All these people, all the people that gave refugees homes to stay, they all did it because they hate Ukrainians and wanted to steal people. How fucking stupid can you be? You are clearly incapable of reading data, cannot distinguish signal from noise and consider social media as a barometer for truth.
Last but not least, what a great insight into international politics you have. No country makes decisions based on feelings. They do it because it's in their interest to do so.
Dear Ruzzian friend, it seems that some Pole stole your wife, and you relatives are now slaves in Poland. Sorry to hear that but please don't drag Ukraine into this. Thanks in advance
I am worried by the frost. The Dnieper's surface may freeze, locking the ZSU personnel on the Eastern bank and islands with no supplies or evacuation routes.
I don't think it is probable For freeze it should be 20 days with temperature lower than 0. There is South where temperature is in average higher. I would more worried about FPV with tracking that can attack target during last 50-100 m even without operator, being jammed. It appeared on front just a few days ago and can be jammed only by jamming beyond range of lock
Dnipro never freezes through. The ice is thin first, later it can be walked on, but I don't think it would hold a vehicle.
When I was a child we used to look how the cracked ice flows down the Dnieper every spring. Now the winters are warmer, and there are years with no ice.
Hmm, if ice can stand people for fishing, then you could transport injured Marines on sleds, plus some supplies (gun rounds, food, medicine, etc). Of course, river ice would be attacked by artillery as soon as they detected any movements, incidentally opening the water route again :-)
1) Sleds require an engine, and any kind of engine + sleds + a human weigh much more than a single fisherman.
2) The ice becomes strong enough to hold a person after a week or two of frost. And it is not uniform - the fishermen know safe places and know how to tell safe ice from unsafe. Nevertheless, few of them fall under ice and drown every year.
They still require an engine that weighs about 70 kg without protection or 100 kg with a body armor. The entire vehicle would be 200 kg and may easily break the ice.
Artillery shelling can break the ice on maybe 50 or 100 meters. Dnieper is much wider. The shelling or drone attacks would just turn the continuous ice cover into a mixture of ice board, large (1-2 meters) ice fragments and water - an impassable mess.
Thanks Tom, glad to read that Avdiivka is holding. It should be clear by now that Ukraine cannot win an attritional war. Therefore, the focus should be on ignoring territory and focusing solely on enabling maneuver and destroying large unit groupings. If the ZSU has to drive to Belgorod, then drive to Belgorod. At the moment, there is no indication that either the ZSU or Zelenskyy have any clue as to what they should be doing. 2023 was a great example of a weak people, governed by an even weaker state, at war. Ukraine is still putting less effort in every way than all countries did in WW2 and WW1, let alone older history. Ukraine didn't exist before 1991, it doesn't have to exist in 2025. It's beggars belief that Zelenskyy is publicly debating whether to authorise the ZSU request for mobilising 500k recruits. Another ridiculous debate is about whether people should be conscripted, i.e. forced, instead of relying on volunteers. Yes, people should be forced into the army like in every army during an existential war, in history. Making unwilling people fight is literally the entire point of having an organised military.
Presumably once Ukraine have weapons, new brigades will form overnight, staffed with fully trained officers, ncos and soldiers? No, the mobilisation is for having a pool of people to churn through training centres. The ZSU training capacity is abysmal anyway, multiple times worse the the VSRF's. It would probably take years for the ZSU to conduct even basic training within Ukraine for 500k. Start now or surrender.
Ukraine cant invade Russia without a nuclear deterrent of its own. So the only way to capture Belgorod would be using the ruse of a "Russian break away" like Bodanov had started doing sometime this year if IIRC. Unfortunately Ukriane doesnt have enough equipment to do that at the moment to hold such a territory while still persecuting a war on its territory. But once they get a nuclear deterrent and weapons production is streamlined, it makes a lot of sense of creating Break away regions in Russia and mining them densely just as the Russians mined Ukraine. In such a case Russia wouldnt use its nukes because of the threat of Ukraine using theres as well. And the goal of making Russians feel the war would be achieved fully.
Russia wouldn't use nuclear weapons if the ZSU raided Belgorod to destroy the logistical hub and infrastructure, any more than now. In any case, Belgorod is just an example. The biggest nuclear deterrent for Russia is China. If Russia uses nuclear weapons on Ukraine, with impunity, China can say goodbye to taking Taiwan. Let's leave nuclear weapons out of it, as it's theory and philosophy, rather than reality. The ZSU must stop its attritional warfare or they will lose. Either lower the intensity and wait for the economic collapse, or bring back maneuver.
So you're talking about raids not actually going into Belgorod to capture and hold territory, Budanov's aim wasnt to raid Belgorod but to create breakaway regions i.e to capture and hold Russian territory using proxies. Otherwise Ukraine is already raiding Belgorod every now and then. On the other end, the fact of the matter is Ukraine will have to restart some sort of nuclear rearmament program. I honestly doubt there isnt one at the moment. Western security guarantees mean nothing unless Ukraine is in NATO. The only other option for Ukraine at the moment is to rearm with nukes. This can be done clandestinely. The Ukrainians have stated clearly that the only option they'll take is NATO membership and have refused anything else including security guarantees. So its up to the smart person to understand what this means with regards to what deterrent Ukraine would need in the event this isnt fulfilled.
I see, no I didn't mean hold Belgorod. The ZSU will never have the required resources for that. No, the ZSU aren't raiding anything, anywhere near it. It would require a large force with boots on the ground.
There will be no nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It's fantasy, not going to happen. It will also not become part of NATO before this war is over and the borders are settled.
No, Ukraine must fight. It will either win and survive or die, as has happened to all Ukrainian states in history.
Someone told me in 2015 there would be no Javelins in Ukraine, and then someone told me in Jan 2022 that Russian air craft would take out all Ukrainian ADs in a few days, after I tried explaining to them that Ukraine had the densest SAM network in Europe and Eurasia due to their large stock of Soviet systems. Then in March 2022 a fellow American told me HIMARS were too advanced for Ukraine. When I was advocating for such systems to be sent. I have followed comments made by Ukrainian security personnel since 2014 and I can guarantee you they're looking at a nuclear deterrent and for good reason. Off the top of my head I remember Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko mentioning this back in 2019 as well as others all the way back to 2015.
I realized a lot of people dont understand just how much technical know how the country has interms of developing military equipment for both nuclear and conventional warfare. A lot of people dont know this but its a country that was the primary developer of the Soviet Union's best nuclear delivery systems and platforms. Clandestinely restarting some sort of nuclear weapons program is not off the table for serious security minds in Ukraine. If anything the missiles they're developing now(Neptune, HRIM 2, Bliskavka) will double as delivery systems for eventual nuclear warheads if they need them. They dont need nor have the capabality to produce all these dual purpose missiles in 1000s over the course of a year but over the course of a decade such a figure is possible, if they can produce 100 such missiles a year.
You're right that it may not reach the point where they rearm with nukes. Especially if the West commits significant military aid. But for certain they have already started slowly building delivery systems that can serve a dual purpose of conventional and nuclear warheads.
Ukraine building nuclear weapons is so far into fantasy land that it's not worth spending time talking about it. It isn't possible to hide production of large quantities of weapons grade fissile materials. The issue with nuclear weapons is not technological, it's a 1950s tech, it's political and financial (they are unbelievably expensive). Also, what exactly do you want them to drop it on? They have no delivery systems beyond a few hundred km. Do you expect them to win the war by dropping a nuke on Donetsk, or Belgorod? Do you expect them to launch a drone with a nuclear bomb at Moscow? How would they test it? Or you expect a first time prototype to be mission ready?
Let's not jump the shark here, because this will become 4chan. If anyone in charge in Ukraine decides to spend even a single hryvna on developing a nuclear warhead, they should be immediately fired and prohibited indefinitely from serving in any public capacity.
Define proper support. I disagree, Russia had 3 times the population before the invasion, now it's more than 5 times larger. More importantly, Russia has multiple times higher training capacity, possibly the single most important parameter in any war, especially war of attrition.
2 things happening side by side are often confused as one and the same. If most of the fighting stopped, the Russian economy would still eventually collapse. Casualties suffered by the VSRF are below their replenishment level. Big enough to prevent the VSRF from growing, significantly too small, to start depleting it.
Most importantly, even if the ZSU had all the equipment they wanted, they have shown to be completely incapable of conducting large unit, combined arms operations. That is training and military education, cannot be fixed with bradleys and abrams. Equipment is vital, but it's the quality of the personnel that makes the difference. Today, the ZSU and the VSRF personnel are the closest, in quality, they have been since Feb '22.
Everything is fine, the main thing is that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. I am sure that if she had refused it, under the guarantees of Russia, the States and Great Britain, then now Ukraine would have received everything it needed, as long as it did not fire a nuclear missile. A good signal for everyone in this world. Good in quotes
Ukraine is running nuclear stations, it can - and should - build nukes. Maybe this will force to wake up our lethargic President who is shitless scared of "escalations" which corrupt coward morons like Samuel Sharap and Jake Sullivan whispering in his ears.
From what I read on the topic it's not as clear-cut, as with most things related to the fall of the USSR. Apparently while Ukraine had nuclear weapons on its territory, they were in bases staffed by Russian soldiers. So in practice there wasn't much Ukraine could do to take control of those weapons.
Yes, I read the same. But still, they gave then back in exchange for some protection. Which didn't happen.
Only partially true with respect to strategic nukes (and ICBM), but completely false with respect to tactical nukes (which was the bulk of them, ca. 1000). Ukraine fully owed and operated them.
Спасибо, Том.
I'm following a couple of "Russia-understanding" folks in the English and Polish (my mother tongue) social media, and try to read some "not-for-export" propaganda (Julia Davis has a great Twitter account for it), and the propaganda line is sth like "Ukrainians failed in their most recent offensive, which means they will never be able to conduct one in the future, which means they cannot defend", ie. two huge leap-of-faith non sequiturs. I'm wondering if the political leadership in Kremlin hasn't bought into this as well.
The second theme is that it's the dastardly West that pushes Ukrainians to continue fighting, and the moment the weapon deliveries stop, Ukrainian army will magically crumble or realize they are in fact Russians or sth. I have some friends from Ukraine (anecdotal evidence), but also saw polling -- it's an illusion, Ukrainians will keep fighting even if left alone. The way they speak about Russians reminds me what we in Poland thought about Germans in the 2WW -- such an existential threat, that death is preferable over giving up. And for a reason, everyone has a dead friend or family member, everyone remembers what the "separatists" were doing in the Donbas prior to 2022 and what was found in mass graves all over liberated territories (among my friends, Izyum is actually more spoken of than Bucha).
I think it's important to explain to our glorious leaders that either the West gets its stuff together and delivers the help Ukraine needs, or we will see a very long conflict with many more dead on both sides. You just can't make a negotiated peace with someone, who lives in fantasy world like the crazy people in Kremlin.
excellently put!!
As a Pole I agree 100% with the above. Fact is: russian imperialism is persistent for centuries, no matter who ruled Russia/USSR. We have this bitter joke here: With whom Russia has a border? With whomever it wants. And with whom does it want? With nobody.
The only way to stop them is to beat the living shit out of them. We did that in 1920, the Finns did in 1940-41. There is no other option as they will stop at nothing else, the methods they use to conquer and russify the populations did not change from the tsarist times.
There is this nice substack that tries to show our pespective with a bit of historical background: https://eastsplaining.substack.com/
I always send this to folks that call me a rusophobe.
The Romanovs were really good at empire building. The Russian empire grew, on average, 55 sq.miles (142 sq.km ) per day, or 20.000 square miles per year since 1613 when the first Romanov came to the throne.
The steppe is full of the bones of the people who resisted Russian empire expansion.
Who are your friends? Are they male 25-60 who are yet not in the army?
If so , why arent they in the army yet. (the same logic is true to the pole results. ) If not, what right do they have to demand war till victory and 1991 borders? This is complete bulshit that ukraine will keep fighting.
In the December 4-10, 2023,Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KMIS) survey 96 percent of respondents supported the Ukrainian armed forces.
https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1338&page=1
Ok. How does it answer my question or correlates with my statement?
I am not a teacher who can help you improve your reading comprehension skills, sorry!
Your statement lacks applicable relevance to what is happening in UA!
Really? And you know it because ? Lets assume its true that 70% of population is willing to fight till the borders of 1991. Then I have one simple question, how come there are no volunteers in enlistment office as far as from late spring 2022. And one more question how come enlistment office representatives are conducting raids all over Ukraine including Kyiv (which did not happen before)?
Everyone I spoke with seems to agree, including some people who are in the army and some who are not, that Ukraine will not surrender and will kick the shit of Russians, either with West’s help, or without. Suck on that.
What region is that? What is their age and sex?
Some are in Kiev, some are in Odessa. Age varies but, all are military aged.
All are men.
Putin's Russia is imploding and taking Ukraine down with them. Ukraine will likely
not be crushed, but badly mauled, with PTSD a life long affliction for so many of those that survive. No win here, just survival. Sorrow and rage and bitterness for so, so many.
The institutions and countries we have relied on to stop intolerable aggression have proved to be so weak or compromised, while Li continues to create economic dependencies, waiting to make his move for world dominance.
Thanks Tom for realistic informations. Ukraine claims 30000 ru looses in december. You have said that RU is able to get 20000 or 25000 new soldier. If this looses are KIA or KIA + WIA in both cases it should be greater than hiring. Has RU increase recruiting process, skipping training or are UA number very far from reality? Have you got an estimate about RU looses? There is a lot of diffrent information, some says together 250000 KIA+ WOU but on other side there are reports that wounded are sending to fight, mobilisation in DOnbas, wagners., first wave of mobilization , recruitng whole 2023.... For me it looks that cca 1milion soldies must be send to UA and at least half of them is not fight ready now.
Please mind that my estimate for the VSRF being able to press 20,000-25,000 fresh troop into combat per month - is from the spring 2023. That's now almost a year ago. It would be foolish to think they didn't increase that capacity, ever since.
...as foolish as to blindly trust Ukrainian claims for the number of the Russians KIA, WIA, MIA etc...
What do you think Ukraine/West needs to do now in order to win this war in future?
The big problem with railway connection to Romania (and the West) is the different track gauge.
Most of Europe runs on 1435mm tracks, while Russia (and Ukraine) run on 1520mm tracks (originally, 1524mm, like in today's Finland).
That makes it impossible to build a seamless connection to the rail network of Ukraine, and it would necessitate a large transloading facility at the border (like in Brest near the Polish/Belorussian border), which then would be targeted by missiles
There were plans to put 1435mm tracks from the border to large existing railway stations, like Lviv or Kovel. Not sure when would that happen, though.
Like that "Rail Baltica" project being pushed by the EU, such projects take a long time and money. And it's not only the track width, there are different couplers (SA-3 instead of the UIC screw coupler), different loading gauge and air brakes, etc. - such a change would mean also a wholesale fleet replacement (locomotives, wagons, etc.) for UZ.
Not a simple task at all.
Funnily enough, the 1524mm width was not selected for defense reasons as the rumours say, but because each country in the 19th century was building their national rail system to serve their internal transportation needs, compatibility with neighboring networks wasn't a prime consideration. So, because the czar had employed a famous American engineer (George Washington Whistler), he selected the southern USA track gauge of five feet (yes, even USA had not a standard gauge then). Yes, five feet equals 1524mm.
I think a *wholesale* fleet replacement won't be required, since usually this "hybrid-track" is implemented as a three-rail solution, so that wagons of both widths can run on the same track.
Unfortunately, the 1520mm tracks aren't wide enough to work with a 3-track solution. You need four tracks and special sleepers if you want to run both European and Russian trains over the same route (and quite special, and costly, switches).
Like the border between Hungary and Ukraine below, these tracks can coexist for some distance:
https://www.inventingeurope.eu/governance/a-port-in-the-hungarian-hinterland&object
Makes sense. My bad, there are 4 rails, not 3.
Can you explain why 3 tracks won't work but 4 will?
If you subtract 1435mm from 1520mm, you get 85mm (or 3.34 inches).
Within that room you will have to fit the rail base (150+ mm, not including rail fasteners etc) for the inner track
There is also this line: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linia_Hutnicza_Szerokotorowa which could be used to deliver stuff from deep into Poland, far from Russian missiles. I wonder if it's not used already to deliver stuff to Ukraine.
Yeah, the PKP LHS is the only Polish route compatible with Soviet era tracks and infrastructure. It's mostly used for heavy haul traffic, and it would need to be optimized for container/fuel traffic, I don't know if there's a will for making major changes
From what I know there were passenger trains using this route, in 2022, for example a special train with the refugees used it, so I guess it can also be adapted for other uses like hauling military cargo. The company governing the line says they do haul 'dangerous' cargo, and there is a station that has the infrastructure to transfer the cars to the cars/platforms to the standard european gauge wheels so they should be able to handle containers there.
The problem is that you need a much larger scale of transshipment between 1435mm and 1520mm trains (at least as large as in Brest), if you want to transport a serious amount of freight over PKP LHS into Ukraine. So, if you want to move lots of containers, you would need gantry cranes, long sidings of Russian and European gauge running for at least 750 meters long, etc.
And exchanging bogies is no fun either, you need a large stock of these on hand if you want to keep a fast tempo (eg, a 40-wagon grain train needs 80 bogies on each side, and it may take 5-6 days before reaching its destination, unload the grain and return to the interchange terminal). Never mind air brake systems and couplers, which are very different.
Sniff. Thank you.
Many of western citizens WANT to believe that putin really wants peace and WANT to believe that his request of "demilitarized Ukraine" is a good deal. The safety of Ukraine will be assured by UN. (Ahahahahah)
Yes they know the reality but they just care of their business, Ukrainian people's future is not important.
And they are so ipocrict that on next Shoah memorial day they will scream loudly "this mess shall not happen again!"
Tom - you refer to Putin as ‘Pudding’. In the UK Pudding is a nice desert. It’s also the name of my cat !!!
Please consider changing his moniker to Putrid. Or Putler (Hitler/Putin)
Good update. Thanks
Also in the UK to call someone 'Pudding headed' is a good old fashioned derogatory remark. Pudding Putin is just fine😁
Ever heard of 'Pudding head'? 😉
Regardless of where the final border between Ukraine and Russia ends up, he only way to insure a lasting peace is for Ukraine to be in NATO. Putin will only be deterred from future aggression stationing a couple of NATO divisions and air wings inside Ukraine.
Trouble is, NATO cannot accept a new member before they have settled any border disputes (that's why Romania had settled with Ukraine their dispute about Snake island before entering NATO - Ukraine kept the island, while Romania kept a part of the water).
And entering NATO requires a unanimous vote of approval by the members - because they are tied by their agreement to support each member in case it gets attacked. So, Ukraine still has a long way before entering NATO...
True, but should Ukraine decide to give up some Russian held territory in exchange for an armistice, they need NATO membership to make the armistice hold.
Even if Ukraine achieved an armistice with Russia (which hasn't given up their target of the elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty) with a large amount of territory (which is extremely hot potato for any Ukrainian government), how do you guarantee that Russians won't renege on their deal while Ukraine tries frantically to become a NATO member?
And I am pretty certain that Russia wouldn't accept such an armistice term (letting Ukraine join NATO), except if all their military power is destroyed.
Never mind that the majority of Ukraine population would be terribly angered by such a decision, which would be the downfall of any government which dared to decide that.
This is mostly hypothetical. As you say, Russia will not accept a peace that includes Ukraine joining NATO, unless Russia is defeated and has no choice. And for Ukraine to agree to an armistice without a guaranteed invitation to join NATO after an armistice is in place would only invite future Russian aggression. The upshot is that there is no path to peace with Putin. The US should give Ukraine everything the need or could use until Russia is driven from Ukraine.
I agree with your conclusion, the problem is that politics in Washington are so polarized and easy to malfunction thanks to a determined MAGA Republican group stance that we cannot depend too much on a sustained USA pipeline of equipment and ammunition.
Political bickering and showmanship are deemed more important in Washington, D.C. than destroying most Russian military power and helping Ukraine stay free and independent (and fiercely American-friendly)
It doesnt make any sense to give up any territory in return for NATO membership as well. Just look at Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhzia Oblasts. With these Russia will always have a very convenient Southern axis to attack Ukraine from. As well, Russia getting to keep the current part of the Donbas it occupies would lead to a frozen conflict over the Donbas no matter how future leaders spin it. The only resolution to this is actually Russia leaving Ukraine. Otherwise I think in our lifetime we'll eventually see a nuclear exchange between the two countries.
Personally I agree with you, but I’ll leave that decision to the Ukrainians.
I cannot see this war (of attrition, no doubt) ending from a change of facts on the battlefield. The West seems focused on making Russia's war effort fall apart gradually from the inside - i mean, ATACMS just as the counter offensive winds up - come on! Perhaps we start to see this internal process in Russia -fuel strikes, eggs, poultry, high interest rates, mothers&wives clubs forming, etc. But is it realistic? I have heard from Russians that everything is a facade and one could see rapid change at any moment. It seems to me though that they could also succeed in transforming themselves into a society going through an invented 'existential struggle' on the magnitude of what we saw in WWII.
We shall know that Russia has entered this stage if/when Putin starts mobilizing Moscow and St.Petersburg residents instead of the poor devils in Yakutsk and other marginalized places...
Yes, that would be a good indicator
Well, it is a total war for both UA and RF, so it will be long, it will be fought in every way and in every field, it is a marathon. The one with the stronger economy and trained human resources will prevail. Fortunately for Ukraine, it doesn't take much of NATO's GDP to make its economy competitive.
That is the problem: the mass of Western policy-makers 'can't see' this war ending from a change on the battlefields either - primarily because neither them, nor their advisors, have an idea how to effect such a change. And the oligarchy paying them is not even interested in 'decisive victories' - but in ascertaining 'profit over years (better: decades), like in Afghanistan and Iraq'.
Thus, they're not even trying.
....and the Russians are already 'eyebrows deep' into 'existential struggle'.
I read Helion's series on the fall of South Vietnam last year followed by Stephen Green's "Living by the Sword." I feel dark parallels between how the West abandoned South Vietnam to supply Israel in the Yom Kippur War to what's going on now with Ukraine.
As far as I know was the population of South Vietnam far less backing their government compared to the Ukrainians now. Furthermore were the South Vietnamese only threatened with living under a communist dictatorship compared to the corrupt capitalistic one they were living in. Ukrainians are facing genozid.
So that comparison is hard to make.
I think you should read same books like Chris. Perhaps add 'Target Saigon' series to it, too: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/target-saigon-1973-75-volume-1-the-pretence-of-peace.php
Well, this report is not so sarcastic as usual. I do not think that all the news from Russia are of no importance. The conditions in Russian army seem to be terrible having in mind also the absurdity of the war. So the aim must be to kill and mutilate as many Russian soldiers as possible. When this war began in 2014 it was presumed that the losses of 50000 would be unsupportable for Russia, the same estimation was maid by Putler himself according to some publications. Now we are quite sure that Russian casualties exceed 200000 and nothing serious happens in Russia. I wonder if the collective West can draw adequate conclusions from such insensibility to human losses and feel the danger of it.
That's nothing new. Russians were traditionally indifferent to human losses (Marshal Zhukov was infamous for this attitude, even between Soviet military leaders, from what I remember).
Western societies became more peaceful maybe as a result of well-being of the Western citizens. Western culture though militaristic in its nature became more human. Last decades of the USSR were also not so cruel as Stalin's period. But Putler's Russia degraded to war-mongering state. Maybe the people as a whole are prone to aggression and domineering.
Note that the cataclysm of 1945 was a big loss for Prussian militarism.
As the people in Berlin experienced first hand the horrors of the war (besides air bombing campaign), destruction etc., they got a lesson they didn't receive at the end of World War I (the armistice of 1918 happened while Germany was still occupying territories outside Germany).
So, Germans were ripe for a change and decided "never again", then became merchants and peaceful people (while Israeli people were forced to become eternal soldiers during the same time, reversing centuries of stereotypes). Of course, the nuclear umbrella of USA helped western Europe to spend less on defense and more on rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure and raise the quality of life quite fast.
All this can change in the future, of course.
The poor conditions in Russia trenches are not news in this war.
Well, from this 200.000 soldiers you have to substract
- DNR and LNR forces as they are not Russian soldiers
- PMC like Wagner, Storm Z, Redhood and what not - those are also no Russian soldiers as they are not within the Russian army chorus
- the point above includes also the prisoners, which are part of some non army whatever agreement if not directly engaged in an PMC
- the conscripted migrants into the army, as they are no Russian citizens
- the chechznians, burjats, dagestani and other minorities count also not in a Russian nationalist perspective
Compare that to the British statistics regarding the distribution of confirmed death and you most likely can put the Ukrainians account regarding KIA down to Puddings 50K number.
Whose lives matter to you as casualties, I wonder?
Thanks for the article. Just one correction: Poles hateUkraine for ages, and this hatred is not a Ukrainian gov's achievement at all. They hate us on genetic level. They played 'big brothers/friends forever' game in the beginning until they got all they needed: slaves,wifes, got re-armed, got HUGE market to sell their products because access to most of the other markets is blocked... After that, they shut 'iron curtain'. So, nothing to do with UA officials. Slovakia - no comments 🙄
I think that the historical antagonism between the Polish/Lithuanian commonwealth and Ukraine/Muscovy has colored the relevant perspectives?
Maybe, but if it still exists, then only in the Pole's mentality. Ukrainians had zero negative towards Poland and its people - until they started 'misbehave' last year all of a sudden'. Which came as quite a shock and huge disappointment to Ukrainians.
You are replying to someone who is either a russian troll or retarded. You really think there are Ukrainian slaves in Poland or any other eastern European country?
I know they are, and I know them personally. It started in Poland ages ago, and growing now.
Unfortunately. It's a well known fact btw. You can find lots of people's stories in appropriate groups. A few of my friends couldn't even come back to Ukraine - didn't have any money for tickets: didn't get paid enough (after slaving for months on the fields, agricultural business). That was ages ago. Today,girls suffer more than males (guess why, or read, or think - not too complicated to figure out the reason).
No, I'm not a troll - just familiar with situation, with country Poland (used to live there), and it's government policy. Still, there are plenty of great Polish people.
What well known fact? Almost all eastern european EU countries provided almost all actual support in arms, heavy equipment, munitions (especially soviet calibre), logistics, alternative trade routes, fuel, shelter for millions of refugees etc. On top of each and every government support, about as much if not more, in monetary terms, has been provided by individual citizens. From Bulgaria, all the way up to Estonia.
The level of stupidity, to say that any of those nations genetically hate Ukrainians, despite half of the ZSU currently driving Polish tanks and most of the air force flying Polish planes, is off the scale. To top it all, according to you they did it for slaves and wives. Yes, the entirety of eastern europe is one big criminal organisation desperately looking for ukrainian hookers. There are probably more ukrainian "slaves" in italy and germany than in any of those countries. I guess if you're Ukrainian, it would make some sense that you are unable to distinguish between organised crime and the government, in Ukraine it's one and the same.
"Polish tanks" and "polish planes" says it all, not to mention the rest of your charity list. Educate yourself.
NB. Sure, there are a few hundred of great, sincere individuals, and I guess I know most of them since 80s.
Have a great night.
Please educate me. Poland on its own has provided 350 tanks, including a dozen leopard 2s. Hundreds of IFVs, about 70 modern SPGs plus dozens soviet era howitzers. That is just Poland, Bulgaria essentially kept Ukraine in the fight in the first months of the war. The only reason why Ukraine still exists is because of the combined effort of eastern european EU countries. Unless you believe that the ZSU has been fighting every day with M777s HIMARS and MRAPs.
Yes, there are a few hundred sincere people in a nation of 37M. You are royally fucked in the head.
He's right, while you seem to be absolutely clueless about the topic - UA-PL relationship and, indeed, the well known polish government's ukrainophobia (any government), their real plans and motivation for any 'help' they provided, and what they get in return. If I could be bothered to argue with you, I wouldn't know where to start. Really, please familiarize yourself before lecturing people. At least, find and read what Ukrainian people say from their personal experience, and what Poles say these days about Ukrainians. BTW, did you know about borders blockage (supported by polish people in full)? About 'forever' embargo on Ukrainian exports to the EU initiated by Poland? About demographic crisis in Poland (30% birth decrease)? About renewing Army & arms as a result of giving old Soviet garbage to Ukraine? All that IS well known, at least in Poland and Ukraine .
Yes, about 1M Ukrainians living and working in Poland before the war did it because Poles hate them. Many more Ukrainians living and working there now are also there because Poles hate them. You're mixing domestic politics, election campaign, social media and real life. You are probably among idiots who claim poland was anti semitic before WW2. People like you just can never explain why there were more than 3M jews living in Poland and fighting for it, while 225k in tolerant France and 300k in the UK. Ukrainians must be the dumbest people in the world, to be able to travel to any country, yet they choose the one that deeply, genetically hates them. Or maybe it's you who's a complete tool.
Also, within a week of the invasion basically a town was set up at the border by ngos, volunteers and local government. All these people, all the people that gave refugees homes to stay, they all did it because they hate Ukrainians and wanted to steal people. How fucking stupid can you be? You are clearly incapable of reading data, cannot distinguish signal from noise and consider social media as a barometer for truth.
Last but not least, what a great insight into international politics you have. No country makes decisions based on feelings. They do it because it's in their interest to do so.
Dear Ruzzian friend, it seems that some Pole stole your wife, and you relatives are now slaves in Poland. Sorry to hear that but please don't drag Ukraine into this. Thanks in advance
Yeah, it appears that only Poles paid by Kremlin hate Ukrainians.
Very stupid reaction. You seem to be absolutely unaware of what's going on.
8 January Zaporizhzhia was hit with Iskander-M and S-400
https://unn.ua/en/news/russians-allegedly-used-iskander-m-and-s-400-in-zaporizhzhia-head-of-the-jma
I am worried by the frost. The Dnieper's surface may freeze, locking the ZSU personnel on the Eastern bank and islands with no supplies or evacuation routes.
I don't think it is probable For freeze it should be 20 days with temperature lower than 0. There is South where temperature is in average higher. I would more worried about FPV with tracking that can attack target during last 50-100 m even without operator, being jammed. It appeared on front just a few days ago and can be jammed only by jamming beyond range of lock
Autonomous drones will be a MAJOR change on the war.
If both sides achieve that, then the drone lethality will be without precedent, and this will influence the whole front, not only Dnipro
As long as Dripro water runs, it'll be harder to freeze.
On the other hand, having a frozen river could mean easier movement of vehicles on it (and evacuation of wounded troops, rotation, etc)
Dnipro never freezes through. The ice is thin first, later it can be walked on, but I don't think it would hold a vehicle.
When I was a child we used to look how the cracked ice flows down the Dnieper every spring. Now the winters are warmer, and there are years with no ice.
Anyway, Dnieper tends to freeze, notwithstanding its current, and the ice is not thick as people fish through it https://img.tsn.ua/cached/468/tsn-87394d020f46df1bdfb04b5785c6f4e0/thumbs/1036x648/8b/3a/a0adb4769592c39911c2e99c43683a8b.png
Hmm, if ice can stand people for fishing, then you could transport injured Marines on sleds, plus some supplies (gun rounds, food, medicine, etc). Of course, river ice would be attacked by artillery as soon as they detected any movements, incidentally opening the water route again :-)
1) Sleds require an engine, and any kind of engine + sleds + a human weigh much more than a single fisherman.
2) The ice becomes strong enough to hold a person after a week or two of frost. And it is not uniform - the fishermen know safe places and know how to tell safe ice from unsafe. Nevertheless, few of them fall under ice and drown every year.
I was meaning sleds without engine, like this (a bit enlarged, of course):
https://openclipart.org/image/800px/326199
They still require an engine that weighs about 70 kg without protection or 100 kg with a body armor. The entire vehicle would be 200 kg and may easily break the ice.
Artillery shelling can break the ice on maybe 50 or 100 meters. Dnieper is much wider. The shelling or drone attacks would just turn the continuous ice cover into a mixture of ice board, large (1-2 meters) ice fragments and water - an impassable mess.
The only way to negotiate with Russians is from a position of power.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Power is the only thing they respect.
Not a signed paper (eg the Budapest memorandum)
Thanks Tom, glad to read that Avdiivka is holding. It should be clear by now that Ukraine cannot win an attritional war. Therefore, the focus should be on ignoring territory and focusing solely on enabling maneuver and destroying large unit groupings. If the ZSU has to drive to Belgorod, then drive to Belgorod. At the moment, there is no indication that either the ZSU or Zelenskyy have any clue as to what they should be doing. 2023 was a great example of a weak people, governed by an even weaker state, at war. Ukraine is still putting less effort in every way than all countries did in WW2 and WW1, let alone older history. Ukraine didn't exist before 1991, it doesn't have to exist in 2025. It's beggars belief that Zelenskyy is publicly debating whether to authorise the ZSU request for mobilising 500k recruits. Another ridiculous debate is about whether people should be conscripted, i.e. forced, instead of relying on volunteers. Yes, people should be forced into the army like in every army during an existential war, in history. Making unwilling people fight is literally the entire point of having an organised military.
First weapons, then people. It’s not a matter of 500k troops
Presumably once Ukraine have weapons, new brigades will form overnight, staffed with fully trained officers, ncos and soldiers? No, the mobilisation is for having a pool of people to churn through training centres. The ZSU training capacity is abysmal anyway, multiple times worse the the VSRF's. It would probably take years for the ZSU to conduct even basic training within Ukraine for 500k. Start now or surrender.
Ukraine cant invade Russia without a nuclear deterrent of its own. So the only way to capture Belgorod would be using the ruse of a "Russian break away" like Bodanov had started doing sometime this year if IIRC. Unfortunately Ukriane doesnt have enough equipment to do that at the moment to hold such a territory while still persecuting a war on its territory. But once they get a nuclear deterrent and weapons production is streamlined, it makes a lot of sense of creating Break away regions in Russia and mining them densely just as the Russians mined Ukraine. In such a case Russia wouldnt use its nukes because of the threat of Ukraine using theres as well. And the goal of making Russians feel the war would be achieved fully.
Russia wouldn't use nuclear weapons if the ZSU raided Belgorod to destroy the logistical hub and infrastructure, any more than now. In any case, Belgorod is just an example. The biggest nuclear deterrent for Russia is China. If Russia uses nuclear weapons on Ukraine, with impunity, China can say goodbye to taking Taiwan. Let's leave nuclear weapons out of it, as it's theory and philosophy, rather than reality. The ZSU must stop its attritional warfare or they will lose. Either lower the intensity and wait for the economic collapse, or bring back maneuver.
So you're talking about raids not actually going into Belgorod to capture and hold territory, Budanov's aim wasnt to raid Belgorod but to create breakaway regions i.e to capture and hold Russian territory using proxies. Otherwise Ukraine is already raiding Belgorod every now and then. On the other end, the fact of the matter is Ukraine will have to restart some sort of nuclear rearmament program. I honestly doubt there isnt one at the moment. Western security guarantees mean nothing unless Ukraine is in NATO. The only other option for Ukraine at the moment is to rearm with nukes. This can be done clandestinely. The Ukrainians have stated clearly that the only option they'll take is NATO membership and have refused anything else including security guarantees. So its up to the smart person to understand what this means with regards to what deterrent Ukraine would need in the event this isnt fulfilled.
I see, no I didn't mean hold Belgorod. The ZSU will never have the required resources for that. No, the ZSU aren't raiding anything, anywhere near it. It would require a large force with boots on the ground.
There will be no nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It's fantasy, not going to happen. It will also not become part of NATO before this war is over and the borders are settled.
No, Ukraine must fight. It will either win and survive or die, as has happened to all Ukrainian states in history.
Someone told me in 2015 there would be no Javelins in Ukraine, and then someone told me in Jan 2022 that Russian air craft would take out all Ukrainian ADs in a few days, after I tried explaining to them that Ukraine had the densest SAM network in Europe and Eurasia due to their large stock of Soviet systems. Then in March 2022 a fellow American told me HIMARS were too advanced for Ukraine. When I was advocating for such systems to be sent. I have followed comments made by Ukrainian security personnel since 2014 and I can guarantee you they're looking at a nuclear deterrent and for good reason. Off the top of my head I remember Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko mentioning this back in 2019 as well as others all the way back to 2015.
I realized a lot of people dont understand just how much technical know how the country has interms of developing military equipment for both nuclear and conventional warfare. A lot of people dont know this but its a country that was the primary developer of the Soviet Union's best nuclear delivery systems and platforms. Clandestinely restarting some sort of nuclear weapons program is not off the table for serious security minds in Ukraine. If anything the missiles they're developing now(Neptune, HRIM 2, Bliskavka) will double as delivery systems for eventual nuclear warheads if they need them. They dont need nor have the capabality to produce all these dual purpose missiles in 1000s over the course of a year but over the course of a decade such a figure is possible, if they can produce 100 such missiles a year.
You're right that it may not reach the point where they rearm with nukes. Especially if the West commits significant military aid. But for certain they have already started slowly building delivery systems that can serve a dual purpose of conventional and nuclear warheads.
Ukraine building nuclear weapons is so far into fantasy land that it's not worth spending time talking about it. It isn't possible to hide production of large quantities of weapons grade fissile materials. The issue with nuclear weapons is not technological, it's a 1950s tech, it's political and financial (they are unbelievably expensive). Also, what exactly do you want them to drop it on? They have no delivery systems beyond a few hundred km. Do you expect them to win the war by dropping a nuke on Donetsk, or Belgorod? Do you expect them to launch a drone with a nuclear bomb at Moscow? How would they test it? Or you expect a first time prototype to be mission ready?
Let's not jump the shark here, because this will become 4chan. If anyone in charge in Ukraine decides to spend even a single hryvna on developing a nuclear warhead, they should be immediately fired and prohibited indefinitely from serving in any public capacity.
Ukraine can win the war of attrition with proper support from the West.
See also https://ridl.io/the-russian-army-in-2024/
Define proper support. I disagree, Russia had 3 times the population before the invasion, now it's more than 5 times larger. More importantly, Russia has multiple times higher training capacity, possibly the single most important parameter in any war, especially war of attrition.
2 things happening side by side are often confused as one and the same. If most of the fighting stopped, the Russian economy would still eventually collapse. Casualties suffered by the VSRF are below their replenishment level. Big enough to prevent the VSRF from growing, significantly too small, to start depleting it.
Most importantly, even if the ZSU had all the equipment they wanted, they have shown to be completely incapable of conducting large unit, combined arms operations. That is training and military education, cannot be fixed with bradleys and abrams. Equipment is vital, but it's the quality of the personnel that makes the difference. Today, the ZSU and the VSRF personnel are the closest, in quality, they have been since Feb '22.