This is a very valid concern. I can think of how defence against drones can be achieved though. Every system has a counter, its just a cycle of developing something and a counter. But its going to be a headache for sure
Yes, ru puts into operation like 3-4 pieces of IL76md90A in 3-5 years. So, 1 strike=5years digression
And yes, 100+ pieces, but how many are fully operational, how many are limited operational, how many are “donors” and how many are “just on paper” or in statistics.
One fact is clear: Pskov is one of main VDV-ru centers, they do operate about 30 IL76, highly probably-25% of them are outed. It pains
You're in the delusional zone here, they're making 3-5 a year and have taken delivery of over a dozen of the Il-76MD-90A. Really don't know what the point of this nonsense is.
Yup. I'm delusional, and that's why it's since 15 years that the FSB would like to know where have I got my info on the UAC, which is of such quality that its CEOs were shocked when seeing it....
Rumint is a too strong term for the paragraph describing the interaction between Shoiguuuuuu, Putin and Gerasimov. Poetic license would be more appropriate. Gerasimov called and asked, Milli denied and they all lived hapily every after., in a galaxy far, far away.
Recently Alexei Danilov announced that Ukraine began the production of the missiles capable to hit aims at a distance 1000 km. So we hope to see them in action.
Great news Tom. Also, I hope you managed to get some rest. Fighting in Verbove was confirmed by multiple sources over the last 2 days or so, great to have it confirmed by you.
1. Assuming Verbove will fall very soon, what do you think the ZSU are planning next? Are they going to attack hill 166 from behind?
2. What is behind the 2nd line that was breached at Verbove? How far are the next significant fortifications?
3. What's the current state of the two VSRF armies in the South? Do they have any reserves? Any undamaged units? Is that VDV division being brought from the East all they have left in the form of fresh units?
Regarding Verbove: the village lies in a long west-east valley in about 8 km long. UAF troops were seen west of the village, that's where the 2nd firtified line (the Surovikin-line) reaches the settlement.
About halfway in the valley (so cc. 4km from the west end) starts the 2 1/2 fortified line, this is a shorter section between Verbove and Pshenychne (Pshenychne is about 3 km south of Novoprokopivka). Finally, after eastern end of Verbove there is the 3rd (and at this moment the last) fortified line, again in a southwestern direction. The problem is that north of Verbove there is a ridgeline parallel to the village from which everything can be kept under fire, which enters the village and wants to move through it.
Thanks, that's very interesting, Verbove being a sort of gateway. The ZSU appear to find it easier to fight inside and along the trenches. Could that be a way to capture either hill 166 or that ridge above Verbove?
Gauging by the last two months, I do not expect the ZSU to go for any kind of 'villages'. They're taken only 'as a last resort', when everything else is clear, and the situation favourable (see Robotyne, see Klishchivka, see Andriivka etc.). Instead, they're going 'in between', where it's easier to find and destroy Russian field positions (essentially: every hedgerow contains 2-3).
....though, and since the Russians are as 'municipalities-obsessed' as their NATO-counterparts.... OK, let's say: yes, the ZSU is going to go for Pshenychne.... or Ocheretuvate... or Romanivs'ke...or Tokmak.... or any other municipality coming to your mind. ;-)
Muchas gracias. It does make sense to me, given that there isn't anything really left of these villages anyway. The only issue is that roads lead there so there's a question of logistics.
What.a interesting update, Tom, and many thanks for it. Hope you may catch some rest as well. Your sarcasm in full throttle is a balsam for my health issues at the moment, but much better for the brave Ukrainians.
Funny to see that not only Putin -lovers live in a a marshmallow sky of faked numbers, but the Keystone Cops even in a acute manner. The, reality crash with you and another notch in the “errors list”.
in the past two weeks there were two videos about succesful russian attacks on ammo/supply trains while they were stopped/unloaded at stations. Both happened well behind, 50-80 km from the frontline, in the Pokrovsk area.
Do you think the Russians managed to apply a more advanced recon system (higher uptime and faster reactions, connections to the long range artillery), or these were local info sources on the ground?
Yesno. 'Two ammo trains in two weeks' - is not enough to conclude there is a clear pattern. That, for example, 'yes they've improved their targeting procedures'.
....especially not when compared to the fact that every day there are dozens of examples clearly showing they did not.
Hey Tom thanks for the update, any news about the status of RU artillery on the Tokmak-Verbove axis? there were some rumour that it was strangely silent either because of lack of ammunition or because of losses incurred by counter battery fire
This is not only entertaining but it greatly cheers me up to see that progress continues, although slowly. The outcome of this war is critical for all of our futures. It is probably the most important piece of history to happen in our lifetimes. I think about it many times every day and pray for lots of bad things to happen to Russia and Russian forces and the opposite for Ukraine. ("Pray" metaphorically of course - no God is going to help).
My deepest regards, sympathy and support for all Ukraine people on this channel.
Thank you Tom very good report its good that the UAF it putting the squeeze on the Rats, and its a little all over, their big idea of a counter-counter-counter offensive in the NE etc isn't working out so well
Thanks for the update. Overall positive, Thats also good. But Ai am getting worried beacause now some positive reports about the Ukrainian counter offensive is beginning to enter more main stream media. Cant help but feeling afraid that will backfire and hurt. But at least some of the arguments you and others are making are beginning to get through.
That's why one should never start wars: becasue one can really never predict their outcome.
That said, should that become necessary, I'm going to post a disclaimer explicitly prohibiting 're-use/quoting' by different US media platforms. Seems, they can't even copy-paste properly, not to talk about understanding what I write...
This is a very valid concern. I can think of how defence against drones can be achieved though. Every system has a counter, its just a cycle of developing something and a counter. But its going to be a headache for sure
Thanks for your articles - much appreciated.
I believe that the IL-76 is still in production.
Best wishes.
Yeap. And ru has 100+ of them. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ил-76
Good article here on the IL-76 status, written by Sofiia Syngaivska - I do not know if she is a relaible source.
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/how_many_il_76_aircraft_are_destroyed_and_what_does_it_mean_for_russia-7786.html#:~:text=Their%20production%20is%20carried%20out,SP%20aviation%20plant%20in%20Ulyanovsk.&text=As%20of%20the%20beginning%20of,year%20over%20the%20previous%20year.
"a significant portion of the Il-76 fleet manufactured during the Soviet era has reached the end of its operational life and requires replacement."
Requires replacement does not need to be adhered to. Use til it break down is another option.
Yes, ru puts into operation like 3-4 pieces of IL76md90A in 3-5 years. So, 1 strike=5years digression
And yes, 100+ pieces, but how many are fully operational, how many are limited operational, how many are “donors” and how many are “just on paper” or in statistics.
One fact is clear: Pskov is one of main VDV-ru centers, they do operate about 30 IL76, highly probably-25% of them are outed. It pains
....or so the Keystone Cops claim. And, hope, I do not need to explain the difference between their claims and something called 'reality'.
In that sense:
https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ambitsiji_ta_realnist_scho_vidbuvajetsja_v_rf_z_virobnitstvom_litakiv_il-240.htm
Keystone Cops also claim they can build 1600 shiny brand new modern MBTs a year, soooo...
The link did not work for me.
I found the page and this is the link
Looks identical to your link ???
https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ambitsiji_ta_realnist_scho_vidbuvajetsja_v_rf_z_virobnitstvom_litakiv_il-240.html
Just noticed, your link ends .htm, mine .html :)
There is an "l" missing at the end. May got lost during copying
It's in production, the article you linked confirms that.
Well, if assembling 2 jets (principally from spare parts collected around) - is 'production': yes, you're right beyond any trace of doubt....
You're in the delusional zone here, they're making 3-5 a year and have taken delivery of over a dozen of the Il-76MD-90A. Really don't know what the point of this nonsense is.
Yup. I'm delusional, and that's why it's since 15 years that the FSB would like to know where have I got my info on the UAC, which is of such quality that its CEOs were shocked when seeing it....
This sarcasm is just lovely 😉
Rumint is a too strong term for the paragraph describing the interaction between Shoiguuuuuu, Putin and Gerasimov. Poetic license would be more appropriate. Gerasimov called and asked, Milli denied and they all lived hapily every after., in a galaxy far, far away.
Recently Alexei Danilov announced that Ukraine began the production of the missiles capable to hit aims at a distance 1000 km. So we hope to see them in action.
Great news Tom. Also, I hope you managed to get some rest. Fighting in Verbove was confirmed by multiple sources over the last 2 days or so, great to have it confirmed by you.
1. Assuming Verbove will fall very soon, what do you think the ZSU are planning next? Are they going to attack hill 166 from behind?
2. What is behind the 2nd line that was breached at Verbove? How far are the next significant fortifications?
3. What's the current state of the two VSRF armies in the South? Do they have any reserves? Any undamaged units? Is that VDV division being brought from the East all they have left in the form of fresh units?
Regarding Verbove: the village lies in a long west-east valley in about 8 km long. UAF troops were seen west of the village, that's where the 2nd firtified line (the Surovikin-line) reaches the settlement.
About halfway in the valley (so cc. 4km from the west end) starts the 2 1/2 fortified line, this is a shorter section between Verbove and Pshenychne (Pshenychne is about 3 km south of Novoprokopivka). Finally, after eastern end of Verbove there is the 3rd (and at this moment the last) fortified line, again in a southwestern direction. The problem is that north of Verbove there is a ridgeline parallel to the village from which everything can be kept under fire, which enters the village and wants to move through it.
Many thanks.
Does your comment in other words mean?
“Verbove is very difficult to liberate, but once that is achieved, it has the benefit of “access” to the “last” fortified line”?
Technically yes, but IMHO there will be easier nuts to crack than Verbove.
Thanks, that's very interesting, Verbove being a sort of gateway. The ZSU appear to find it easier to fight inside and along the trenches. Could that be a way to capture either hill 166 or that ridge above Verbove?
Gauging by the last two months, I do not expect the ZSU to go for any kind of 'villages'. They're taken only 'as a last resort', when everything else is clear, and the situation favourable (see Robotyne, see Klishchivka, see Andriivka etc.). Instead, they're going 'in between', where it's easier to find and destroy Russian field positions (essentially: every hedgerow contains 2-3).
....though, and since the Russians are as 'municipalities-obsessed' as their NATO-counterparts.... OK, let's say: yes, the ZSU is going to go for Pshenychne.... or Ocheretuvate... or Romanivs'ke...or Tokmak.... or any other municipality coming to your mind. ;-)
Muchas gracias. It does make sense to me, given that there isn't anything really left of these villages anyway. The only issue is that roads lead there so there's a question of logistics.
Holiday seems to have worked. That was some very refreshing sarcasm in the beginning.
What.a interesting update, Tom, and many thanks for it. Hope you may catch some rest as well. Your sarcasm in full throttle is a balsam for my health issues at the moment, but much better for the brave Ukrainians.
Funny to see that not only Putin -lovers live in a a marshmallow sky of faked numbers, but the Keystone Cops even in a acute manner. The, reality crash with you and another notch in the “errors list”.
Wish you a quick and full recovery.
Vielen Danke!!!
Any word on how the challengers are performing
'Snipers'.
in the past two weeks there were two videos about succesful russian attacks on ammo/supply trains while they were stopped/unloaded at stations. Both happened well behind, 50-80 km from the frontline, in the Pokrovsk area.
Do you think the Russians managed to apply a more advanced recon system (higher uptime and faster reactions, connections to the long range artillery), or these were local info sources on the ground?
Yesno. 'Two ammo trains in two weeks' - is not enough to conclude there is a clear pattern. That, for example, 'yes they've improved their targeting procedures'.
....especially not when compared to the fact that every day there are dozens of examples clearly showing they did not.
Thanks
Two mi8 were from Croatia donation.
....gosh....these have seen a lots of action....
Thay were not hit by russians, 22 and 24 years old pilots. I just find out. Inexperience.
Still sad...
Hey Tom thanks for the update, any news about the status of RU artillery on the Tokmak-Verbove axis? there were some rumour that it was strangely silent either because of lack of ammunition or because of losses incurred by counter battery fire
Not really 'silent'. Rather 'down to 9 shells a day', 'outranged by Ukrainian' and 'blasted as soon as it opens fire'.
This is not only entertaining but it greatly cheers me up to see that progress continues, although slowly. The outcome of this war is critical for all of our futures. It is probably the most important piece of history to happen in our lifetimes. I think about it many times every day and pray for lots of bad things to happen to Russia and Russian forces and the opposite for Ukraine. ("Pray" metaphorically of course - no God is going to help).
My deepest regards, sympathy and support for all Ukraine people on this channel.
Thank you Tom very good report its good that the UAF it putting the squeeze on the Rats, and its a little all over, their big idea of a counter-counter-counter offensive in the NE etc isn't working out so well
Thanks for the update. Overall positive, Thats also good. But Ai am getting worried beacause now some positive reports about the Ukrainian counter offensive is beginning to enter more main stream media. Cant help but feeling afraid that will backfire and hurt. But at least some of the arguments you and others are making are beginning to get through.
That's why one should never start wars: becasue one can really never predict their outcome.
That said, should that become necessary, I'm going to post a disclaimer explicitly prohibiting 're-use/quoting' by different US media platforms. Seems, they can't even copy-paste properly, not to talk about understanding what I write...