Hello everybody! The following is likely to appear ‘extremely unusual’, and definitely ‘not related to Ukraine’. Please, be so kind and read before you think that way: as far as I am ready to say, it is very much related to enabling Putin on the international scene and thus also his war of extermination of Ukraine.
In 2016, when a coalition government of the ÖVP and the FPÖ came to power, the FPÖ-minister violated the law when ordering the house search of the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz und Terrorismusbekämpfung (BVT: the top security agency of Austria) - and that principally because the BVT was investigating against multiple top politicians of the FPÖ (usually because all are linked to the clandestine neo-Nazi scene... which in turn is primarily supported by 'private donnors' from the USA and Russia).
As a result, the BVT was de-facto destroyed. Related 'investigations' are still ongoing, while the ÖVP-dominated government was forced to establish an entirely new service (of course: all of its chieftains are at least ÖVP-favourites)...
....and ever since, none of foreign intelligence agencies is keen to cooperate with Austrian intelligence agencies. Except the NSA: this continued to 'quietly' maintain its two major bases in Vienna.
Some say that this is what resulted in the terrorist attack on 'the City' in Vienna, in November 2020: apparently, the Slovak intel services were aware of preparations, but because they refused to cooperate with Austrians, no warning could have been forwarded...
Yeah wait until next February, when the FBI is suddenly his best friend ever... once under his control.
Think of the USA as a funhouse mirror version of the USSR. Everyone is lying about everything, only you'd better toe capitalist dogma instead of fake socialist or outcast you be!
Sorry Tom, but that's not entirely true. The Austrian BVT was already known as unreliable long before FPÖ-Minister Kickl was appointed (spy Ott was suspended already during Sobotkas reign as IM). Therefore already all other foreign Intel Services didn't share sensible information with the Austrian BVT before Kickls appointment.
When Kickl was appointed he passed a "dossier" full of rumors and allegiations which was already circulation through several hands of journalists (but not published) for half a year to the justice department (WKStA - attorney for corruption and economic fraud). Unfortunately the WKStA is well known for a very poor performance and for shooting sparrows with cannons. That's what they did also in this case. It was the WKSTA (where the minister of Interior has no influence, since it's belonging to the minster of Justice who was at that time appointed by ÖVP) who raided the BVT with a razzia and found a judge stupid enough to give his approval for the razzia. The razzia was led by the WKStA, all data confiscated at the razzia were under sole control and disclosure of WKSTA. FPÖ minister Kickl didn't violate any law.
It was the WKStA messing the BVT up big time. But the BVT was already known as unreliable and full of Russian paid moles well before FPÖ-minister took over.
Wow Tom. At least You have a picture of what interest the intelligence services serve.
If You want to feel a little better, check about the intelligence services of Argentina, the former SIDE (Servicio de Inteligencia del Estado - intelligence Service of the State) and the now AFI (Agencia Federal de Inteligencia - Federal Intelligence Agencia) that seems to have their own agenda since the 70's at least.
I'm waiting for the second part of The Beagle Conflict and the Revolución Libertadora part 1 and 2 to be available in digital format.
Nice books. I Will check this one two, I have some of our dirty war by other writers, very nice books. I will recommend Ceferino Reato, his books are very well documented.
Fascinating. Austria since 1918 has been the strangest European country for sure, and not in a good way. Does any of this affect the Austrian public? Has it ever been an issue, in media, for investigative journalists, has there ever been a popular pressure against this? Or is there some quiet understanding that the country profits from this?
We do have 2-3 investigative Journalists in Austria, but, principally, they're conventiently ignored.
As mentioned above, the FPÖ is currently leading in the pools, and the ÖVP is quite certain to lead the next government, after elections in this autumn. The SPÖ is meanwhile in deep trouble, but that because of massive problems within its own leadership.
Bottom line: nope, while every single of affairs mentioned above has been trashed in the media up and down, nobody ever put them together, and this has no serious effects upon the Austrian public. Also, it is acknowledged, publicly, that corporations like OMV and/or RBI are extracting handsome profits from Russia, but is simply no topic here.
The country is comforting with a relatively high standard of living so there is no reason to get up. Furthermore, we have this Sissy like fairy tale about our neutrality. Something like Soviet Union/Russia would never touch Austrian soil even in case of a full scale invasion, because we are neutral. Basically like Switzerland even we have no army and militia like them, not talking about geography. Most people buy into this sleeping understanding of reality and don't want to be disturbed. Especially as the country profited from this status during the 1st Cold War. Having tons of spies here is also a form of tourism....
Have not read that article, but role of Helmut Zilk was not so simple. He was in contact with Czechoslovak agent Bittman who escaped in 1968 to U.S.A and gave C.I.A all contacts he had. So, C.I.A and allies were well aware about Zilk. It's probable he was a double agent. He helped to Czechoslovak emigrants, too. Vaclav Havel has apologized to Zilk and came to his funeral later, e.g. see https://www.idnes.cz/technet/vojenstvi/helmut-zilk-agent-stb-agent-cia-vyznamenani-zeman-havel-rakousko-cssr-viden.A191025_125722_vojenstvi_kuz (Note the remark about more probable double agents.)
Also, have read elsewhere, that Zilk was very chatty with Czechoslovak agents, but never gave them any "serious" information.
Just in case readers are still mystified why so many spies are in Vienna, it's because there is a smorsgasbord of intelligence gathering opportunities in the city. It is the HQ of OPEC, of the OSCE, of the IAEA, and many more international bodies. Pretty much every intelligence agency in the world is interested in operating there. Well, maybe not the Bhutanese, but everyone else, even Luxembourg.
Tom's hilarious yet terrifying roundup of Austro-Russian political espionage scandals didn't cover everything. That would take forever. For example, there's the 'Ibiza Villa Oligarch' farce of 2019 which led to the resignation of the FPÖ's leader and then Austrian deputy chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache.
Indeed, one can. When you register it with the Austrian authorities (town council, for example, and then the Minisrtry of Finances), you're sorted under a specific tax group with the official designation for that kind of profession being: 'acquisition and provision of information' (Informationsbeschaffung).
Oh, actually: since that clause of the law was actually meant for investigative journalists (just for example), one is paying less income tax - or at least having extra rights regarding tax deductions.
For me there is this somewhat interesting coincidence that a lot of the putin-friendly countries are in fact the remnants of the great Habsburgian Austro-Hungary. Obviously Austria and Orbanland, but also Slovakia, Czechia with Babiš and Zeman, and my wonderful Poland. Interestingly the biggest support for the right-wing populists in PL was and still is in Lesser Poland and Subcarpathia, both former parts of the Habsburgian state. And while Poland did support Ukraine military and took in a lot of refugees the former government was anti-EU and desperatly trying to build a clone od the putinist state as much as Orban did.
Anyway it feels like there's some nostalgia after failed empires here. Plus the 50+ years of USSR brainwashing on top. ;)
Wrong. The hatred started since 1939 after communist oppressions.
Before that, paradoxically, it was quite pro-Russian what made Austro-Hungarian authorities put Ruthenic elite right to ...Thalerhof concentration camp
I also often wondered about this and whether it’s just a coincidence, and if not, what the best explanation would be. But I don’t find the “nostalgia for an empire” a very plausible explanation, certainly not in Czechia or Slovakia. And I’m not even sure it’s really specific to these countries: after all, you have Putin-friendly populists in France (RN), Italy (Lega Nord and others), Netherlands (Wilders). In general, the parties that are Putin-friendly are parties that want to reduce EU’s oversight over their actions, because they are political opportunists and kleptocrats (like Orban, Babis and Fico) or because their policies are unacceptable to the EU values (like Le Pen, Lega, Wilders…). If not for the specific historical experience and geostraregic exposure of Poland, I wonder if PiS would otherwise also be Russia-friendly, just because they have the same goal in weak EU and corruptible states as Putin does. But nonetheless, it’s striking that in the AH countries, these populists are in power, while elsewhere, they remain in opposition (though this might change in France now).
My explanation would be that the former AH countries have in common that their nation building was based on the idea of being ruled by someone else, not identifying with the ruling power, not feeling agency or ability to govern themselves. This applies also to Austria: its nation-building began only after 1918 and ever since then, the feeling that the victirious powers of Europe dictate its fate runs deep. All of these countries also don’t have long traditions of being sovereign democracies: their interwar democracy didn’t last very long (the longest was Czechia, which coincidentally appears more resistant to these Putin-friendly anti-EU populists than the others), and then they either had Moscow-ruled communism or (in Austria) utter shame, unprocessed fascist tendencies and perceived limited sovereignty. In all cases, the feeling of “someone else is telling us what to do” is deep in the cultural and national myths and easily capitalised on and used against the EU. It used to be directed against AH, USSR, now it’s against the EU, but it’s the same underlying story, deeply woven in the national myth. Which is why the populists/opportunists are all so successful with this message. And since their anti-EU (and anti-rule-of-law) message is exactly what Putin is aiming for, they naturally become opportunistic allies and they help each other. But I don’t believe there’s an ideological or some deeper conviction, and I think they just cynically believe Russia can’t actually threaten them as they would be shielded by NATO/Poland/Ukraine… A bit like some Ukrainian oligarchs were pretty Putin-friendly, until Putin destroyed their businesses.
I think you hit the nail on the head with the "being ruled by someone else", it is definitely a factor, although the southern part of Europe had the same with the Ottoman Empire. And it's interesting to look at the political support maps after the elections in Poland, where you still can see the approximate borders of the partitions 106 years later. All 3 parts ruled by someone else for 123 years, yet some parts are more pro-western and pro-EU, while others turn more towards PiS and the far-right.
Anyway my failed empire nostalgia was a bit tonge in cheek, but this A-H pattern is interesting. Not saying 100% A-H has the pro-russian leanings, as Vadim pointed out above for west Ukraine, also not true for Slovenia, but a huge chunk of it is and it's fascinating.
Indeed. There are interesting differences and specifics, the example of SE Poland is very interesting.
That said, big groups of people and many strong personalities in these countries are also very much pro-EU and pro-Ukraine and we often forget them. Slovakia gets a bad name due to Fico, but let’s not forget that it was Michal Šimečka from Slovakia’s PS party who heavily advocated for and helped pass through the candidate status for Ukraine in June 2022; his party was also the winner in the 2024 European elections and is the third strongest party in the Renew group (after Macron’s 13 and German FDP’s 8 seats, Progressive Slovakia has 6 seats, quite remarkable for such a small country); also Slovakia’s military assistance in 2022 was exemplary. We do these people disservice if we only focus on Fico and call entire Slovakia pro-Russian instead of recognising the fierce batte that is ongoing there.
Something similar takes places in my own Czechia: Babis has a consistent support of ~30% of the population (with a core in the left-behind regions and older people), and it appears that’s his ceiling and he is now careful with his pro-Russian messaging as he knows majority of the population is anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine. But he’s nonetheless able to capitalise on the anti-EU narrative, even among people who are anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine: sadly, Czech intellectuals catastrophically failed to make it clear how being anti-EU is actually pro-Putin and how EU is actually good for us. The anti-EU and everyone-against-us narrative is really strong in Czechia, left and right; it’s only the centre-left urban parties that are genuinely pro-European. Here, I really blame our national mythmaking as portraying the Czech nation as always ruled by others, betrayed by others, exploited by others (which is just stupid, especially when our neighbours are the Poles lol). “Against all” is a famous Czech motto ever since the Hussites, it’s also the name of Alois Jirásek’s super famous historical novel and Otakar Vávra’s super famous historical film; this idea has been abused by everyone from Masaryk to the communists and today’s populists; when Putin speaks to the Czechs, he always invokes Munich (irony number 345). I know that Slovaks and Hungarians have the same myths, except that Slovaks also add being ruled by the Czechs, and Hungarians being different than everyone else and misunderstood by everyone. I really like about Poles that you never developed this stupid victimhood belief about yourself, even though you suffered more than anyone.
Hungarian here. The myth is indeed similar, but with the added twist that we're constantly pushed down by others, because we are in fact _superior_ to everyone, and, I dunno, they are envious? It's surprisingly similar to the Russian narrative, just without the country size to make it even more ridiculous. In any case, Slovakia belongs to us, too, Czechs like to stab us in the back, but with Poles we're good friends, even though we didn't give a shit about them when they were partitioned.
By the way, of these four countries, Poland is the only former great power, and the single one with a history of never-ending, stubborn resistance against frequently genocidal invaders. This may give them a sense of dignity which is above cheap shows of victimhood.
Actually it's a bit more complicated, because we have nice PR with all that "Poland first to fight" etc, but we have this huge martyrology going on inside with all the failed uprisings (19th cent, but also the Warsaw uprising), the Katyń, how we got sold to Stalin in Yalta, all of that supported by the Catholic Church still pumping the romantic 19th cent myth of "Poland being the Christ of the nations" all the time sacrificed to the tougher players.
So I guess we can all join hands as we're all played the same way, swinging between the former greatness and being the helpess victim. That's a really powerful mix.
Tom, thanks. Just wanted to mention that after reading this report from you, as I usually do, I get an email from Sofix Report and guess what the subject is? “Russian Espionage Thrives in Vienna Amid Increased Diplomatic Presence”.
Thanks, Tom, I very much appreciate your efforts in various directions, because they assist with putting together the jigsaw pieces of the bigger picture.
In principle, I am a friend of many things Austrian, especially when they are sweet and edible, but the political soul of the nation seems suspect to me, not to say crooked.
Of course, Austria is a relatively small country that has to adapt; everyone wants to be as successful and rich as possible without exhausting themselves; the complex political manoeuvring on the international stage rarely gives an opportunity for flawless performances; and a brief introspection makes it clear that greed, arrogance, lust and laziness are human, all too human.
But what amazes me is the familiar reaction in the long term: when you catch yourself engaging in such behaviour, you should be ashamed and try to hide it; but 'Austria' seems - after the mandatory initial turmoil - to be downright proud of its attitude, as if everything else would be hypocritical and narrow-minded.
I cannot condemn this because I do not understand the inner logic of this self-conception. I'm more concerned with a vague feeling while observing the spectacle: do they long for the 'Russki Mir à l'autrichien'? Only cosier, less evil, but similarly autistic and unscrupulous? And how could we still convince them to associate themselves with the liberation of Ukraine wholeheartedly? What is the decisive criterion?
Fun fact - off-topic- after Austria refusal of Romania access to Schengen space, there was a saying in Romanian roughly translated "f..k theirs kangaroos "
Hey, you didn't happen to play the board game Diplomacy by email years ago, did you, Tom? I could swear I've had a similar description of Austrian politics with a dude from the Salzburg area. :D
Nice overview. I also thought that Kyiv Independent piece was kinda odd. They're big into the US market, which explains a lot of their general editorial bent.
I want to understand how other European and US work around the Austrian 'reality'
In 2016, when a coalition government of the ÖVP and the FPÖ came to power, the FPÖ-minister violated the law when ordering the house search of the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz und Terrorismusbekämpfung (BVT: the top security agency of Austria) - and that principally because the BVT was investigating against multiple top politicians of the FPÖ (usually because all are linked to the clandestine neo-Nazi scene... which in turn is primarily supported by 'private donnors' from the USA and Russia).
As a result, the BVT was de-facto destroyed. Related 'investigations' are still ongoing, while the ÖVP-dominated government was forced to establish an entirely new service (of course: all of its chieftains are at least ÖVP-favourites)...
....and ever since, none of foreign intelligence agencies is keen to cooperate with Austrian intelligence agencies. Except the NSA: this continued to 'quietly' maintain its two major bases in Vienna.
Some say that this is what resulted in the terrorist attack on 'the City' in Vienna, in November 2020: apparently, the Slovak intel services were aware of preparations, but because they refused to cooperate with Austrians, no warning could have been forwarded...
What a mess!! Thanks
My pleasure.
And thanks for being so kind to describe this with 'mess' - only (instead with some much worse expressions).
Hm, sort of like how Trump wants to get rid of the FBI.
Exactly the same way Trump wants to get rid of the FBI.
Yeah wait until next February, when the FBI is suddenly his best friend ever... once under his control.
Think of the USA as a funhouse mirror version of the USSR. Everyone is lying about everything, only you'd better toe capitalist dogma instead of fake socialist or outcast you be!
How can you say such things about the USA, you Marxist, you.... :P
Ssssh, you can't *say* that here! It's 'Murica, even if the Blue half.
I'm just a cynical critical systems theorist who draws no influence whatsoever from anyone like Kropotkin, Mao, or Ho Chi Minh. ;)
Lived in Vienna at the time and had plans to go to the restaurant, but the kids got sick. Too close for my likeing...
Well they warned about the guy that he tried buying ammunition. However, nobody was there to process this information.
Sorry Tom, but that's not entirely true. The Austrian BVT was already known as unreliable long before FPÖ-Minister Kickl was appointed (spy Ott was suspended already during Sobotkas reign as IM). Therefore already all other foreign Intel Services didn't share sensible information with the Austrian BVT before Kickls appointment.
When Kickl was appointed he passed a "dossier" full of rumors and allegiations which was already circulation through several hands of journalists (but not published) for half a year to the justice department (WKStA - attorney for corruption and economic fraud). Unfortunately the WKStA is well known for a very poor performance and for shooting sparrows with cannons. That's what they did also in this case. It was the WKSTA (where the minister of Interior has no influence, since it's belonging to the minster of Justice who was at that time appointed by ÖVP) who raided the BVT with a razzia and found a judge stupid enough to give his approval for the razzia. The razzia was led by the WKStA, all data confiscated at the razzia were under sole control and disclosure of WKSTA. FPÖ minister Kickl didn't violate any law.
It was the WKStA messing the BVT up big time. But the BVT was already known as unreliable and full of Russian paid moles well before FPÖ-minister took over.
Oh, thanks for this 'update' on all of this: seems, I've missed the 'best' (ÖVP-related) -parts... ;-)
Wow Tom. At least You have a picture of what interest the intelligence services serve.
If You want to feel a little better, check about the intelligence services of Argentina, the former SIDE (Servicio de Inteligencia del Estado - intelligence Service of the State) and the now AFI (Agencia Federal de Inteligencia - Federal Intelligence Agencia) that seems to have their own agenda since the 70's at least.
Oh yes. Was the reason why I've asked Tony Sapienza to write us a book about that topic. The Volume 1 is out since a few days:
https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/operativo-independencia-volume-1-armed-insurgency-in-argentina-1955-1974.php
I'm waiting for the second part of The Beagle Conflict and the Revolución Libertadora part 1 and 2 to be available in digital format.
Nice books. I Will check this one two, I have some of our dirty war by other writers, very nice books. I will recommend Ceferino Reato, his books are very well documented.
Fascinating. Austria since 1918 has been the strangest European country for sure, and not in a good way. Does any of this affect the Austrian public? Has it ever been an issue, in media, for investigative journalists, has there ever been a popular pressure against this? Or is there some quiet understanding that the country profits from this?
'Investigative Journalisten'....was is'n des....?
We do have 2-3 investigative Journalists in Austria, but, principally, they're conventiently ignored.
As mentioned above, the FPÖ is currently leading in the pools, and the ÖVP is quite certain to lead the next government, after elections in this autumn. The SPÖ is meanwhile in deep trouble, but that because of massive problems within its own leadership.
Bottom line: nope, while every single of affairs mentioned above has been trashed in the media up and down, nobody ever put them together, and this has no serious effects upon the Austrian public. Also, it is acknowledged, publicly, that corporations like OMV and/or RBI are extracting handsome profits from Russia, but is simply no topic here.
The country is comforting with a relatively high standard of living so there is no reason to get up. Furthermore, we have this Sissy like fairy tale about our neutrality. Something like Soviet Union/Russia would never touch Austrian soil even in case of a full scale invasion, because we are neutral. Basically like Switzerland even we have no army and militia like them, not talking about geography. Most people buy into this sleeping understanding of reality and don't want to be disturbed. Especially as the country profited from this status during the 1st Cold War. Having tons of spies here is also a form of tourism....
Have not read that article, but role of Helmut Zilk was not so simple. He was in contact with Czechoslovak agent Bittman who escaped in 1968 to U.S.A and gave C.I.A all contacts he had. So, C.I.A and allies were well aware about Zilk. It's probable he was a double agent. He helped to Czechoslovak emigrants, too. Vaclav Havel has apologized to Zilk and came to his funeral later, e.g. see https://www.idnes.cz/technet/vojenstvi/helmut-zilk-agent-stb-agent-cia-vyznamenani-zeman-havel-rakousko-cssr-viden.A191025_125722_vojenstvi_kuz (Note the remark about more probable double agents.)
Also, have read elsewhere, that Zilk was very chatty with Czechoslovak agents, but never gave them any "serious" information.
You seriously think Zilk was the only one?
Just in case readers are still mystified why so many spies are in Vienna, it's because there is a smorsgasbord of intelligence gathering opportunities in the city. It is the HQ of OPEC, of the OSCE, of the IAEA, and many more international bodies. Pretty much every intelligence agency in the world is interested in operating there. Well, maybe not the Bhutanese, but everyone else, even Luxembourg.
Tom's hilarious yet terrifying roundup of Austro-Russian political espionage scandals didn't cover everything. That would take forever. For example, there's the 'Ibiza Villa Oligarch' farce of 2019 which led to the resignation of the FPÖ's leader and then Austrian deputy chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/20/austria-ibiza-scandal-sting-operation-what-happened-why-does-it-matter
(Btw, in this link there's an astonishing photo of—as Tom mentioned—Foreign Minister Karin Kneiss dancing with Putin at her wedding).
And here's a good link that summarises pretty much everything else Tom said.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2022/04/austria-is-russias-tunnel-into-the-heart-of-europe
And then there’s the grotesque fact that espionage in Austria isn’t illegal as long as Austria isn’t spied on.
That explains a lot. Sounds like one can legally register a private entrepreneurship in Austria with "Spying" as a primary activity.
Indeed, one can. When you register it with the Austrian authorities (town council, for example, and then the Minisrtry of Finances), you're sorted under a specific tax group with the official designation for that kind of profession being: 'acquisition and provision of information' (Informationsbeschaffung).
Hmm, it would be funny if in this tax group you were obliged to give 20% of the collected information as "taxes" to the government.
Oh, actually: since that clause of the law was actually meant for investigative journalists (just for example), one is paying less income tax - or at least having extra rights regarding tax deductions.
What a inusual topic, but not only interesting in an academic way, but in Security issues.
I had a small idea about spying “wiener szene”, but you are opening more doors to look into. Thanks for all!
For me there is this somewhat interesting coincidence that a lot of the putin-friendly countries are in fact the remnants of the great Habsburgian Austro-Hungary. Obviously Austria and Orbanland, but also Slovakia, Czechia with Babiš and Zeman, and my wonderful Poland. Interestingly the biggest support for the right-wing populists in PL was and still is in Lesser Poland and Subcarpathia, both former parts of the Habsburgian state. And while Poland did support Ukraine military and took in a lot of refugees the former government was anti-EU and desperatly trying to build a clone od the putinist state as much as Orban did.
Anyway it feels like there's some nostalgia after failed empires here. Plus the 50+ years of USSR brainwashing on top. ;)
On the other hand, in Western Ukraine (which used to be a part of Habsburg empire), Russia has been traditionally hated long before 2014.
Wrong. The hatred started since 1939 after communist oppressions.
Before that, paradoxically, it was quite pro-Russian what made Austro-Hungarian authorities put Ruthenic elite right to ...Thalerhof concentration camp
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalerhof_internment_camp
Indeed, but still - 1939 was long before 2014.
I also often wondered about this and whether it’s just a coincidence, and if not, what the best explanation would be. But I don’t find the “nostalgia for an empire” a very plausible explanation, certainly not in Czechia or Slovakia. And I’m not even sure it’s really specific to these countries: after all, you have Putin-friendly populists in France (RN), Italy (Lega Nord and others), Netherlands (Wilders). In general, the parties that are Putin-friendly are parties that want to reduce EU’s oversight over their actions, because they are political opportunists and kleptocrats (like Orban, Babis and Fico) or because their policies are unacceptable to the EU values (like Le Pen, Lega, Wilders…). If not for the specific historical experience and geostraregic exposure of Poland, I wonder if PiS would otherwise also be Russia-friendly, just because they have the same goal in weak EU and corruptible states as Putin does. But nonetheless, it’s striking that in the AH countries, these populists are in power, while elsewhere, they remain in opposition (though this might change in France now).
My explanation would be that the former AH countries have in common that their nation building was based on the idea of being ruled by someone else, not identifying with the ruling power, not feeling agency or ability to govern themselves. This applies also to Austria: its nation-building began only after 1918 and ever since then, the feeling that the victirious powers of Europe dictate its fate runs deep. All of these countries also don’t have long traditions of being sovereign democracies: their interwar democracy didn’t last very long (the longest was Czechia, which coincidentally appears more resistant to these Putin-friendly anti-EU populists than the others), and then they either had Moscow-ruled communism or (in Austria) utter shame, unprocessed fascist tendencies and perceived limited sovereignty. In all cases, the feeling of “someone else is telling us what to do” is deep in the cultural and national myths and easily capitalised on and used against the EU. It used to be directed against AH, USSR, now it’s against the EU, but it’s the same underlying story, deeply woven in the national myth. Which is why the populists/opportunists are all so successful with this message. And since their anti-EU (and anti-rule-of-law) message is exactly what Putin is aiming for, they naturally become opportunistic allies and they help each other. But I don’t believe there’s an ideological or some deeper conviction, and I think they just cynically believe Russia can’t actually threaten them as they would be shielded by NATO/Poland/Ukraine… A bit like some Ukrainian oligarchs were pretty Putin-friendly, until Putin destroyed their businesses.
I think you hit the nail on the head with the "being ruled by someone else", it is definitely a factor, although the southern part of Europe had the same with the Ottoman Empire. And it's interesting to look at the political support maps after the elections in Poland, where you still can see the approximate borders of the partitions 106 years later. All 3 parts ruled by someone else for 123 years, yet some parts are more pro-western and pro-EU, while others turn more towards PiS and the far-right.
Anyway my failed empire nostalgia was a bit tonge in cheek, but this A-H pattern is interesting. Not saying 100% A-H has the pro-russian leanings, as Vadim pointed out above for west Ukraine, also not true for Slovenia, but a huge chunk of it is and it's fascinating.
Indeed. There are interesting differences and specifics, the example of SE Poland is very interesting.
That said, big groups of people and many strong personalities in these countries are also very much pro-EU and pro-Ukraine and we often forget them. Slovakia gets a bad name due to Fico, but let’s not forget that it was Michal Šimečka from Slovakia’s PS party who heavily advocated for and helped pass through the candidate status for Ukraine in June 2022; his party was also the winner in the 2024 European elections and is the third strongest party in the Renew group (after Macron’s 13 and German FDP’s 8 seats, Progressive Slovakia has 6 seats, quite remarkable for such a small country); also Slovakia’s military assistance in 2022 was exemplary. We do these people disservice if we only focus on Fico and call entire Slovakia pro-Russian instead of recognising the fierce batte that is ongoing there.
Something similar takes places in my own Czechia: Babis has a consistent support of ~30% of the population (with a core in the left-behind regions and older people), and it appears that’s his ceiling and he is now careful with his pro-Russian messaging as he knows majority of the population is anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine. But he’s nonetheless able to capitalise on the anti-EU narrative, even among people who are anti-Putin and pro-Ukraine: sadly, Czech intellectuals catastrophically failed to make it clear how being anti-EU is actually pro-Putin and how EU is actually good for us. The anti-EU and everyone-against-us narrative is really strong in Czechia, left and right; it’s only the centre-left urban parties that are genuinely pro-European. Here, I really blame our national mythmaking as portraying the Czech nation as always ruled by others, betrayed by others, exploited by others (which is just stupid, especially when our neighbours are the Poles lol). “Against all” is a famous Czech motto ever since the Hussites, it’s also the name of Alois Jirásek’s super famous historical novel and Otakar Vávra’s super famous historical film; this idea has been abused by everyone from Masaryk to the communists and today’s populists; when Putin speaks to the Czechs, he always invokes Munich (irony number 345). I know that Slovaks and Hungarians have the same myths, except that Slovaks also add being ruled by the Czechs, and Hungarians being different than everyone else and misunderstood by everyone. I really like about Poles that you never developed this stupid victimhood belief about yourself, even though you suffered more than anyone.
Hungarian here. The myth is indeed similar, but with the added twist that we're constantly pushed down by others, because we are in fact _superior_ to everyone, and, I dunno, they are envious? It's surprisingly similar to the Russian narrative, just without the country size to make it even more ridiculous. In any case, Slovakia belongs to us, too, Czechs like to stab us in the back, but with Poles we're good friends, even though we didn't give a shit about them when they were partitioned.
By the way, of these four countries, Poland is the only former great power, and the single one with a history of never-ending, stubborn resistance against frequently genocidal invaders. This may give them a sense of dignity which is above cheap shows of victimhood.
Actually it's a bit more complicated, because we have nice PR with all that "Poland first to fight" etc, but we have this huge martyrology going on inside with all the failed uprisings (19th cent, but also the Warsaw uprising), the Katyń, how we got sold to Stalin in Yalta, all of that supported by the Catholic Church still pumping the romantic 19th cent myth of "Poland being the Christ of the nations" all the time sacrificed to the tougher players.
So I guess we can all join hands as we're all played the same way, swinging between the former greatness and being the helpess victim. That's a really powerful mix.
This is a fantastic discussion, thanks to everyone who participated!
Excellent comment
It is the same in France.
Nostalgia of the failed empires and revisionism through proxy.
Spot on. Also in Germany, AfD is stronger in the former DDR lands. It looks strange. Something between nostalgia and Stockholm syndrome.
Tom, thanks. Just wanted to mention that after reading this report from you, as I usually do, I get an email from Sofix Report and guess what the subject is? “Russian Espionage Thrives in Vienna Amid Increased Diplomatic Presence”.
Hahaha feels.like you described romanian politics . Its the same in most places just the scales are different
Thanks, Tom, I very much appreciate your efforts in various directions, because they assist with putting together the jigsaw pieces of the bigger picture.
In principle, I am a friend of many things Austrian, especially when they are sweet and edible, but the political soul of the nation seems suspect to me, not to say crooked.
Of course, Austria is a relatively small country that has to adapt; everyone wants to be as successful and rich as possible without exhausting themselves; the complex political manoeuvring on the international stage rarely gives an opportunity for flawless performances; and a brief introspection makes it clear that greed, arrogance, lust and laziness are human, all too human.
But what amazes me is the familiar reaction in the long term: when you catch yourself engaging in such behaviour, you should be ashamed and try to hide it; but 'Austria' seems - after the mandatory initial turmoil - to be downright proud of its attitude, as if everything else would be hypocritical and narrow-minded.
I cannot condemn this because I do not understand the inner logic of this self-conception. I'm more concerned with a vague feeling while observing the spectacle: do they long for the 'Russki Mir à l'autrichien'? Only cosier, less evil, but similarly autistic and unscrupulous? And how could we still convince them to associate themselves with the liberation of Ukraine wholeheartedly? What is the decisive criterion?
Thanks for the information. Learned a lot.
Wow. Colonel Alfred Redl has a long shadow indeed.
all because there are no kangaroos in Austria
Yes, if there were, the spies could be brought before a kangaroo court.
https://www.meinbezirk.at/tulln/c-lokales/kaenguru-hoppelt-durch-niederoesterreich_a6609096
I knew, I knew!
actually there are more ;)
https://noe.orf.at/stories/3203528/
Fun fact - off-topic- after Austria refusal of Romania access to Schengen space, there was a saying in Romanian roughly translated "f..k theirs kangaroos "
Hey, you didn't happen to play the board game Diplomacy by email years ago, did you, Tom? I could swear I've had a similar description of Austrian politics with a dude from the Salzburg area. :D
Nice overview. I also thought that Kyiv Independent piece was kinda odd. They're big into the US market, which explains a lot of their general editorial bent.
My fellow Yanks have a very, very hard time wrapping their heads around just how complex this part of the world is.
Or any, including our own.
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM/