Intersting, shows the problem of selling equipment to unstable allies like Persia under the shah. Oh well, everybody does sell and then we get into strange possibilities. We shall see or not I guess.
I'm of the opinion that Iran should have applied to have the Tomcats recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site years ago.
But seriously, I would be objectively disappointed if Israel had hit even one fully operational Iranian jet on the ground. Like Ukraine, Iran should have at least relocated everything that could fly at the first sign of an attack. You don't have to be an officer to know that Israel would quickly gain (most of) air supremacy and that all air bases would be targets.
I wonder what the Israelis' next goals are. They've bombed everything they can find, Iran hasn't collapsed, what now? You can't win a war from the air alone. I'm just waiting for Netanyahu's "mission accomplished" speech, then the whole world will know that the opposite is true.
Think, one should keep in mind that Iran is no insurgency (like Hamas) nor parastate (like Hezbollah): it's the first nation/country Israel is fighting since 1973.
Moreover, the ideology of the IRI is that of the Twelver Shi'a. Means: they're convinced that the more they try, the harder they try, the more losses they suffer, the more evidence are they providing to Allah that they are worth, have deserved, being granted success.
As obvious already from Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, that's a combination Israelis do not know how to counter.
The IRGC are a strange mixture of piety and calculating outside-the-box thinking when it comes to asymmetric warfare. As I understand it, they put their faith in drones, ballistic missiles and asymmetric naval forces from the late 1980s onwards. (The film "Immigrant" (Mohajer) was a really interesting insight into their mind-state.) To me it looks like the inter-service rivalry with the IRIAF seems to have become more of a matter of a genuine argument about tactics than a revolutionary struggle.
But one wonders if their monomania at pursuing asymmetric capabilities at the expense of conventional ones will be their Achilles heel in the end. If they totally cede Iranian airspace to Israel/US, maybe they can still degrade the IAF with enough missile strikes on airbases, but it's doubtful they could do that to the US.
Was the opportunity cost of developing hypersonics and missile cities instead of a 5th gen fighter worth it? Hmm...
No, Israel has already started hitting oil/fuel facilities.
I remember when Sadaam was condemned for destroying wells and production facilities in Kuwait for creating an environmental catastrophe - Israel will do the same in Iran. One wonder how much blame they will receive???
And there are always 'infrastructure' targets to hit - water and sanitation, airports, harbors, power plants, schools, hospitals... As with the US Isreal is quite good at claiming that their opponents military can't properly function without the exsact same 'infrastructure' that any population needs to survive - in their world every thing is 'dual use' and there fore can be targeted in their interpretation of the rules of war.
It is rather ironic that in the 10th Century the Peace of God was promulgated to limit combat to the actual participants and ban the killing of non-combatants and 12 centuries later we have millitaries justifying the mass slaughter of civilians as mere collateral damage in violation of modern attempts to do the same.
I saw that quite recently the IRIAF unveiled a new F-14 full cockpit simulator. (I also heard it was not based on the well-known Heatblur module. Therefore, Iranian aviation accounts on Instagram were panning it as a waste of money.) Those folks also told me Tomcats were flying CAP over Natanz, typically at night. Maybe the new simulator was for an aerospace museum, or maybe they really wanted to keep their crews current without stressing the airframes.
PS Re. the F-4D/Es -- I expect those from Bandar Abbas, and possibly elsewhere, may have dispersed to tunnel complexes like "Oghab 44." Some of them seem to be being used as "Ghadr" cruise missile launchers.
The F-14, my favourite interceptor. When I was a kid I dream about the Argentine Air Force getting some of them as they were taken out of service. A pure defensive jet, nothing the RAF need to be afraid.
Thanks Tom. This is very interesting work. I wonder where Iran gets the resources (parts, missiles) to operate and upgrade these aircraft, which have long been decommissioned in the US.
Iran bought not only fighters, but also most of the necessary support infarastructure. Means: every air base housing F-14s, has had its own depot with spares (worth 10 years of intensive operations) and the necessary workshops. Moreover, the Iranian Aircraft Industries at Mehrabad (established with help from Northrop) was constructed and its personnel qualified, to undertake overhauls - of the airframe, of most of avionics, and of the engines.
Only AWG-9-radars were to be overhauled and/or repaired in the USA.
Similar was valid for AIM-54As: they were delivered sealed in their transport containers. These were OK for 10 years. Then (if not yet spent in training or combat) the missiles had to be unpacked, checked and repaired as necessary.
With the mass of tools, machinery, spares and weaponry being delivered between 1974 and 1976, Iran was able to maintain its F-14s in operational service without any problems until 1983, and - despite a growing number of problems, but with some help of smuggling from abroad - by 1985. By 1986, it was already manufacturing most of spares at home.
...except for AWG-9s... and for specific parts of AIM-54As (like thermal batteries). Problems in regards of these were solved (again: through a combination of smuggling and domestic production) only during the 1990s.
Once the USN retired its F-14s, of course, lots of additional parts were clandestinelly acquired in the USA.
Intersting, shows the problem of selling equipment to unstable allies like Persia under the shah. Oh well, everybody does sell and then we get into strange possibilities. We shall see or not I guess.
I'm of the opinion that Iran should have applied to have the Tomcats recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site years ago.
But seriously, I would be objectively disappointed if Israel had hit even one fully operational Iranian jet on the ground. Like Ukraine, Iran should have at least relocated everything that could fly at the first sign of an attack. You don't have to be an officer to know that Israel would quickly gain (most of) air supremacy and that all air bases would be targets.
I wonder what the Israelis' next goals are. They've bombed everything they can find, Iran hasn't collapsed, what now? You can't win a war from the air alone. I'm just waiting for Netanyahu's "mission accomplished" speech, then the whole world will know that the opposite is true.
Think, one should keep in mind that Iran is no insurgency (like Hamas) nor parastate (like Hezbollah): it's the first nation/country Israel is fighting since 1973.
Moreover, the ideology of the IRI is that of the Twelver Shi'a. Means: they're convinced that the more they try, the harder they try, the more losses they suffer, the more evidence are they providing to Allah that they are worth, have deserved, being granted success.
As obvious already from Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, that's a combination Israelis do not know how to counter.
Yes, both sides thrive on sacrifice and being victims, making it hard for the higher power to choose which is more deserving of success.
The IRGC are a strange mixture of piety and calculating outside-the-box thinking when it comes to asymmetric warfare. As I understand it, they put their faith in drones, ballistic missiles and asymmetric naval forces from the late 1980s onwards. (The film "Immigrant" (Mohajer) was a really interesting insight into their mind-state.) To me it looks like the inter-service rivalry with the IRIAF seems to have become more of a matter of a genuine argument about tactics than a revolutionary struggle.
But one wonders if their monomania at pursuing asymmetric capabilities at the expense of conventional ones will be their Achilles heel in the end. If they totally cede Iranian airspace to Israel/US, maybe they can still degrade the IAF with enough missile strikes on airbases, but it's doubtful they could do that to the US.
Was the opportunity cost of developing hypersonics and missile cities instead of a 5th gen fighter worth it? Hmm...
No, Israel has already started hitting oil/fuel facilities.
I remember when Sadaam was condemned for destroying wells and production facilities in Kuwait for creating an environmental catastrophe - Israel will do the same in Iran. One wonder how much blame they will receive???
And there are always 'infrastructure' targets to hit - water and sanitation, airports, harbors, power plants, schools, hospitals... As with the US Isreal is quite good at claiming that their opponents military can't properly function without the exsact same 'infrastructure' that any population needs to survive - in their world every thing is 'dual use' and there fore can be targeted in their interpretation of the rules of war.
It is rather ironic that in the 10th Century the Peace of God was promulgated to limit combat to the actual participants and ban the killing of non-combatants and 12 centuries later we have millitaries justifying the mass slaughter of civilians as mere collateral damage in violation of modern attempts to do the same.
I saw that quite recently the IRIAF unveiled a new F-14 full cockpit simulator. (I also heard it was not based on the well-known Heatblur module. Therefore, Iranian aviation accounts on Instagram were panning it as a waste of money.) Those folks also told me Tomcats were flying CAP over Natanz, typically at night. Maybe the new simulator was for an aerospace museum, or maybe they really wanted to keep their crews current without stressing the airframes.
PS Re. the F-4D/Es -- I expect those from Bandar Abbas, and possibly elsewhere, may have dispersed to tunnel complexes like "Oghab 44." Some of them seem to be being used as "Ghadr" cruise missile launchers.
The F-14, my favourite interceptor. When I was a kid I dream about the Argentine Air Force getting some of them as they were taken out of service. A pure defensive jet, nothing the RAF need to be afraid.
We are getting F-16 instead, 30 years later.
Thanks Tom. This is very interesting work. I wonder where Iran gets the resources (parts, missiles) to operate and upgrade these aircraft, which have long been decommissioned in the US.
Iran bought not only fighters, but also most of the necessary support infarastructure. Means: every air base housing F-14s, has had its own depot with spares (worth 10 years of intensive operations) and the necessary workshops. Moreover, the Iranian Aircraft Industries at Mehrabad (established with help from Northrop) was constructed and its personnel qualified, to undertake overhauls - of the airframe, of most of avionics, and of the engines.
Only AWG-9-radars were to be overhauled and/or repaired in the USA.
Similar was valid for AIM-54As: they were delivered sealed in their transport containers. These were OK for 10 years. Then (if not yet spent in training or combat) the missiles had to be unpacked, checked and repaired as necessary.
With the mass of tools, machinery, spares and weaponry being delivered between 1974 and 1976, Iran was able to maintain its F-14s in operational service without any problems until 1983, and - despite a growing number of problems, but with some help of smuggling from abroad - by 1985. By 1986, it was already manufacturing most of spares at home.
...except for AWG-9s... and for specific parts of AIM-54As (like thermal batteries). Problems in regards of these were solved (again: through a combination of smuggling and domestic production) only during the 1990s.
Once the USN retired its F-14s, of course, lots of additional parts were clandestinelly acquired in the USA.
Tom, what's your favourite Soviet aircraft?
Got to be TU-16!
...not really sure if I like the MiG-23 or the MiG-25 more. I do like the design of the Su-15, too.
I prefert su27, is like a tomcatsty, for poor people