You wrote: « …because, obviously, this ‘war’ (the one instigated by Pakistan through the Pahalgam massacre) began only on 24 April 2025; because the man who can’t even spell ‘covfefer’ and the guy who is fighting his 3-days-special military operation for 3,5 years already (but never-ever deploying his strategic bombers to bombard Ukraine) – are correctly assessed as the masterminds capable of orchestrating a conspiracy of this scope, and handling international conflicts with ease, too…» I am unsure here, could this be sarcasm. Asking for a friend of course. You know I think it is.
Thanks for the information. Something we should really know here. And it was good to see your sarcasm again, after the section I quoted there were a few more.
Excellent report, and nicely written too. I don't understand why this isn't more widely recognized. Just because Modi isn't the world's greatest democrat, that shouldn't blind us to the appalling breakdown of government in Pakistan.
Tom, with Pakistan seemingly now being protected by China, Saudi Arabia, and the US, doesn’t it look like Modi’s hands are tied? Curious how you think that will affect the response.
Nope. Because, realistically, all of the 'powers' in question wouldn't even manage to fart before India could neutralise the Pakistan's armed forces.
The actual question is: can India disarm the Pakistani Armed Forces 'just' to such a level that these learn that continuing to instigate terror attacks into India is hurting them, first and foremost - without completely collapsing the same?
Because, the moment the Pakistani Armed Forces collapse - for example: because India has hurt them that badly - the country is converting into another Somalia. And, lets all be clear in that regards: NOBODY wants a 'super-Somalia' with a population of 250 million, some 40,000 crazed, armed terrorists, and nuclear bombs.
I perceive that for India to disarm the Pakistani Armed Forces even without collapsing them it will require more than Indian air power. This means Indian boots on the ground in Pakistan. This would portend an enormously uncertain political and mlitary situation of great risk, much more than a successful Indian equivalent of a Russian "special military operation." Once a nation puts boots on the ground in another nation, it is time to take out the dice and then play a few games of craps.
I think this actually depends on the IAF, IA's and the IN's arsenal of stuff like Brahmos, SCALP-EG, Rampage etc.
With 'disarming' I mean: blow up all the radar stations (mobile or not), then blow up whatever of SAM-sites are still around. While doing that, also blow up the C3-facilities (especially the underground ones, constructed in the last 15 or so years on about a dozen of different airbases). Crater the runways so the PAF can't take off: if the PAF attempts to repair, crater them again. And again. That way, the PAF can go bragging about its PL-15s as much as it likes, but without C3 centres and runways, it can't even take off. Exactly as it happened in May.
Indeed, this would be something like '10-fold more' than the IAF did in May. Theoretically, it's perfectly capable of repeating that performance. The only thing I'm not sure about is: if it has enough ammo for that... enough BrahMos, SCALP-EGs, Rampages and other, similar stuff.
....except it has really launched series production of the stuff like Rudram and those 1,000kg glide bombs with 100+km range (the latter would be handy for cratering many more runways than just one in Sargodha).
You are taking some stupid Indian tv personal views quite seriously as military analyst who has this weird fetish that Russia is absolutely dominating Ukraine war. Sadly you encountered one such clown earlier who was claiming Ukraine resistance is nothing without starlink.
These people are relics of the past and slowly vanish from the tv like a rancid smell once Indian media comes out of this anti colonial mindset.
My problem is (I'm just quoting you) these 'stupid Indian tv personal views' were expressed by a number of distinguished (retired) military officers.
As for the Indian media: I can live with its 'colourful style', no problem. Contrary to the mass of kids (or at least people nowadays under 30) I grew up at the time when our parents were teaching us both to 'read between the lines' and 'connect the dots'.
But, for a country with a population of 1.5 billion that media is really far from consciously realising its own power and in what direction it might want to develop.
...which is a part of the reason why New Delhi has such problems with maintaining control over the public narrative...
I am guessing you are talking about "general Bakshi" who was a retired military officer but sadly turned into a media personality. Claiming stupid things from last few years to catch some eyeballs.
Don't forget that The Establishment of Pakistan foremost excels at setting its own hair afire. Unsurprisingly, that one was by the TTP: the Pakistani Taliban. The same ones that overrun 20+ Pakistani border posts, about a month ago, killing and capturing over 50 PA troops.
...of course, Islamabad is now going to cry 'India, in cooperation with al-Qaeda', and all othe other of similar marvels...
An academic degree is not making one safe or untouchable from indoctrination and radicalisation. The Daesh (a.k.a. IS/ISIS/ISIL/IGIL) also included MDs, engineers, lawyers, etc. (and their ideology was - indirectly - based on that of a lawyer, Ibn Taymiyah).
Besides, if at least more than 5% of modern-day scientists would be of any use and actually actively exercise science: people like me would be entirely unnecessary. Instead, the majority of historians can't even properly research and publish about history...
Unfortunately, you are almost always right about these projections. Conflict between armed nuclear powers, led by religious extremist governments makes me very nervous.
Superb article- thank you. The ricin was an absolute shocker. The fact that the lamentable powers that be in Islamabad call an organisation with Ricin a liberation movement is deeply despicable. I have a feeling that the ultimate protectors of murderous clowns in Islamabad aren’t in Washington but ultimately in Riyadh. Washington seems to be the organ grinders monkey in this case of Saudi petro-dollar sock-puppetry. Their recent squalid little defence pact seems to indicate that.
1. the bomb in Delhi was not a gas cylinder exploding, media reports ammonium nitrate residue but importantly no shrapnel. (indicating some sort of panicked detonation before the bomb could be properly assembled - use it or lose it). The car(i20) was spotted just previously undergoing a pollution check which is both indicative of a petrol engine and no immediate intent to blow itself up.
2. The Ricin was yet to be refined, there are conflicting reports of the doctor being found with 4kg castor oil (from which you cannot extract) and 4kg castor beans (from which you can). Nevertheless they did find an underground lab equipped to do this and so the intent was clearly there. That volume of castor anything is super improbable for a single human consumption anyway.
The US used to have a huge advantage over China; they were China's biggest customer. China was not going to start a war with the country that was buying most of their manufacturing output. When you look at it that way, you can see the political advantage.
Trump has completely obliterated that advantage. China, in a 4D chess move, ignored the tariffs and opened their markets to other customers. I don't know what the real numbers are, but it's easy to see in the boldness of their political moves recently that they don't care what the US does.
Thanks Tom for a report of world changing events almost totally ignored in the West. I have to say that the Pakistan problem comes from there being a Pakistan in the first place. Like the creation of Israel out of Palestine, the creation of Pakistan out of India was a very bad idea embraced by London, and we have to live and die with those decisions today.
You wrote: « …because, obviously, this ‘war’ (the one instigated by Pakistan through the Pahalgam massacre) began only on 24 April 2025; because the man who can’t even spell ‘covfefer’ and the guy who is fighting his 3-days-special military operation for 3,5 years already (but never-ever deploying his strategic bombers to bombard Ukraine) – are correctly assessed as the masterminds capable of orchestrating a conspiracy of this scope, and handling international conflicts with ease, too…» I am unsure here, could this be sarcasm. Asking for a friend of course. You know I think it is.
Thanks for the information. Something we should really know here. And it was good to see your sarcasm again, after the section I quoted there were a few more.
Excellent report, and nicely written too. I don't understand why this isn't more widely recognized. Just because Modi isn't the world's greatest democrat, that shouldn't blind us to the appalling breakdown of government in Pakistan.
"Breakdown of government in Pakistan". That made me laugh.
Watch interviews of Muslims in India living under Modi. They love him and India.
Tom, with Pakistan seemingly now being protected by China, Saudi Arabia, and the US, doesn’t it look like Modi’s hands are tied? Curious how you think that will affect the response.
Nope. Because, realistically, all of the 'powers' in question wouldn't even manage to fart before India could neutralise the Pakistan's armed forces.
The actual question is: can India disarm the Pakistani Armed Forces 'just' to such a level that these learn that continuing to instigate terror attacks into India is hurting them, first and foremost - without completely collapsing the same?
Because, the moment the Pakistani Armed Forces collapse - for example: because India has hurt them that badly - the country is converting into another Somalia. And, lets all be clear in that regards: NOBODY wants a 'super-Somalia' with a population of 250 million, some 40,000 crazed, armed terrorists, and nuclear bombs.
I perceive that for India to disarm the Pakistani Armed Forces even without collapsing them it will require more than Indian air power. This means Indian boots on the ground in Pakistan. This would portend an enormously uncertain political and mlitary situation of great risk, much more than a successful Indian equivalent of a Russian "special military operation." Once a nation puts boots on the ground in another nation, it is time to take out the dice and then play a few games of craps.
Not sure.
I think this actually depends on the IAF, IA's and the IN's arsenal of stuff like Brahmos, SCALP-EG, Rampage etc.
With 'disarming' I mean: blow up all the radar stations (mobile or not), then blow up whatever of SAM-sites are still around. While doing that, also blow up the C3-facilities (especially the underground ones, constructed in the last 15 or so years on about a dozen of different airbases). Crater the runways so the PAF can't take off: if the PAF attempts to repair, crater them again. And again. That way, the PAF can go bragging about its PL-15s as much as it likes, but without C3 centres and runways, it can't even take off. Exactly as it happened in May.
Indeed, this would be something like '10-fold more' than the IAF did in May. Theoretically, it's perfectly capable of repeating that performance. The only thing I'm not sure about is: if it has enough ammo for that... enough BrahMos, SCALP-EGs, Rampages and other, similar stuff.
....except it has really launched series production of the stuff like Rudram and those 1,000kg glide bombs with 100+km range (the latter would be handy for cratering many more runways than just one in Sargodha).
You are taking some stupid Indian tv personal views quite seriously as military analyst who has this weird fetish that Russia is absolutely dominating Ukraine war. Sadly you encountered one such clown earlier who was claiming Ukraine resistance is nothing without starlink.
These people are relics of the past and slowly vanish from the tv like a rancid smell once Indian media comes out of this anti colonial mindset.
Perhaps.
My problem is (I'm just quoting you) these 'stupid Indian tv personal views' were expressed by a number of distinguished (retired) military officers.
As for the Indian media: I can live with its 'colourful style', no problem. Contrary to the mass of kids (or at least people nowadays under 30) I grew up at the time when our parents were teaching us both to 'read between the lines' and 'connect the dots'.
But, for a country with a population of 1.5 billion that media is really far from consciously realising its own power and in what direction it might want to develop.
...which is a part of the reason why New Delhi has such problems with maintaining control over the public narrative...
I am guessing you are talking about "general Bakshi" who was a retired military officer but sadly turned into a media personality. Claiming stupid things from last few years to catch some eyeballs.
Except it's about officials currently in service: please, no names here.
Thank you!
And now a car bomb in Islamabad, have anyone claimed the responsibility there yet?
Don't forget that The Establishment of Pakistan foremost excels at setting its own hair afire. Unsurprisingly, that one was by the TTP: the Pakistani Taliban. The same ones that overrun 20+ Pakistani border posts, about a month ago, killing and capturing over 50 PA troops.
...of course, Islamabad is now going to cry 'India, in cooperation with al-Qaeda', and all othe other of similar marvels...
Yeah, it is about as surprising as to find Swiss Cheese in Switzerland...
So, all in all, fortunate timing for the Pakistani PR conglomerate!
One of those days the powers involved will miscalculate and nukes will start flying all over subcontinent. Lets pray it will be not this week...
Dumb question...lots o' Doctors in the bunch...all PhD's in Islamic Studies?
Medical doctors.
An academic degree is not making one safe or untouchable from indoctrination and radicalisation. The Daesh (a.k.a. IS/ISIS/ISIL/IGIL) also included MDs, engineers, lawyers, etc. (and their ideology was - indirectly - based on that of a lawyer, Ibn Taymiyah).
Besides, if at least more than 5% of modern-day scientists would be of any use and actually actively exercise science: people like me would be entirely unnecessary. Instead, the majority of historians can't even properly research and publish about history...
Thank you. I had to ask. Islam. Why am I not surprised (rhetorical)?
What about Asclepius Oath? I guess values are definitely a thing of the past
Whether secular or Islamic, I don't give a shit. Any and all jihadi groups in Kashmir must be exterminated asap.
Unfortunately, you are almost always right about these projections. Conflict between armed nuclear powers, led by religious extremist governments makes me very nervous.
Superb article- thank you. The ricin was an absolute shocker. The fact that the lamentable powers that be in Islamabad call an organisation with Ricin a liberation movement is deeply despicable. I have a feeling that the ultimate protectors of murderous clowns in Islamabad aren’t in Washington but ultimately in Riyadh. Washington seems to be the organ grinders monkey in this case of Saudi petro-dollar sock-puppetry. Their recent squalid little defence pact seems to indicate that.
I just want to clear up a few niggles.
1. the bomb in Delhi was not a gas cylinder exploding, media reports ammonium nitrate residue but importantly no shrapnel. (indicating some sort of panicked detonation before the bomb could be properly assembled - use it or lose it). The car(i20) was spotted just previously undergoing a pollution check which is both indicative of a petrol engine and no immediate intent to blow itself up.
2. The Ricin was yet to be refined, there are conflicting reports of the doctor being found with 4kg castor oil (from which you cannot extract) and 4kg castor beans (from which you can). Nevertheless they did find an underground lab equipped to do this and so the intent was clearly there. That volume of castor anything is super improbable for a single human consumption anyway.
The 'car bomb' was probably an accident caused by panic as accomplices were already arrested and the other members of the group were on the run.
💯, some reports indicating there were multiple people in the car, improbable, but it would be a suicide bomber first.
The US used to have a huge advantage over China; they were China's biggest customer. China was not going to start a war with the country that was buying most of their manufacturing output. When you look at it that way, you can see the political advantage.
Trump has completely obliterated that advantage. China, in a 4D chess move, ignored the tariffs and opened their markets to other customers. I don't know what the real numbers are, but it's easy to see in the boldness of their political moves recently that they don't care what the US does.
This is damage that the US may never overcome.
¿quién iba a pensar que un miembro de una conocida organización terrorista pudiera participar en un ataque terrorista? Es simplemente inconcebible.
Buenísimo tu sarcasmo.
Thanks Tom for a report of world changing events almost totally ignored in the West. I have to say that the Pakistan problem comes from there being a Pakistan in the first place. Like the creation of Israel out of Palestine, the creation of Pakistan out of India was a very bad idea embraced by London, and we have to live and die with those decisions today.