Tom your insight into this has been consistent all the way through. Funny that the media here in the UK is really pushing the message that the missiles have been delivered, just as Blinken and Lammy visit Kiev, amid ‘talk’ that this moves the dial to being more in favour of the US lifting restrictions. I seem to have an itch in my little toe…….. must be something I ate…
If the story about Iranian missiles is true, that's not the problem - as long as it offers a good pretext for unlocking the use of western weapons inside Russia
...just how uncertain is the Trio Fantasticus about all the 'news about the Iranian ballistic missiles in Russia' - is obvious alone from the fact that it's not lifting such limits. Merely talking about talking...
Don't forget the traditional rivalry between the two, the Russian racism, and Putin's lack of far-sight.
He's clever, no doubt. But, not clever enough to enter the kind of cooperations with Iran, which the Iranians want: for him, Iranians are '2nd class citizens', 'cocroaches', 'camel riders' - no 'strategic partners'.
Yep, I know this Ruzzian chauvinism well. But when camel riders have something Russians really want, then they make a deal. Fath 360 has not such value to trade for Su-35, but maybe Putler traded something "smaller" e.g. some missile design, Israel intel, ...
BTW. about that Ruzzian chauvinism - Putler is not Hitler. Tuvans are even 3rd class citizens to many Ruzzians, but Putin made Shoigu a minister two times. Etc. with other nations in Russia.
You sure are right that Putin in power would never make a honest deal.
... but I think right now Russia is no longer recognized as that cold war capable monstrosity by their partners. I think they already took some lessons of the art of begging.
Anyway, if there will be missiles,then there will be pieces left and Ukraine is tediously sweeping the ground for everything related. We will see.
By the way, somebody else noticed that in the last few days the daily Russian losses contains far less tanks than usual. By any chance, do you have any comment on that? Just noise in data?
Ps.: accidentally, do you have any information about Russia still using S300 in ballistic mode?
Russians aren't using tanks as much, not because they don't have them but because they need to traverse large territories fast (especially in the Pokrovsk direction) and this is why they use fast moving motorcycles and troop transports before they can be seen by drones and be reacted upon.
My thought has been that while Iran's 'mid-range' missiles can't rach Israel from Iran that they are still a threat is deployed in allies closer to Israel and that Iran quite likely sees that as a greater priority.
After all Iran still has yet to fully retaliate for the assassination in Iran. And as a number of sources stated that Iran had not used is latest and best in its 'massive' strike that Israel (with significant help) handled so well sending missiles to Russia would potentially lessen a future strike.
One also wonders if in using their older stocks in that previous strike the Iranians were mapping and testing the capabilities of Israels missile and drone defences...
Thanks for this thread Tom (and the previous ones, also)
Do you think that all this is a US PR mission with the following goal : crying to media "what ? Iran is providing missils to Russia , we have to lift limits to our weapons and Russia can't threat about anything becoz it's a bad nation that is collecting missils from the ugliest countries in the world" ?
I think that Biden & Co are searching for a scapegoat.
While ignoring warnings from the CIA and SIS, they've delivered dozens of billions worth arms and ammo to Israel, supported (and are still supporting) the Zionist genocide on Palestinians, and then run that idiotic adventure in Yemen. And nothing worked.
Somebody now 'must pay' for their own mistakes. And Iran is such a perfect scapegoat.
Greatly grateful for your untired level of work, and all this master class on “ancient” history. They are not only informative, it lift the fog Media and RuZZian BS spreading groups had created about the real situation in Ukraine.
Since there probably were not Iranian ballistic missiles at the Ramenskoye air base, is there reason to think there is anything particularly special at Ramenskoye, or just a good opportunity blow up Russian munitions?
As this was a major thing during Soviet times, it is definitely a major thing today as well. Furthermore it is basically Moscow, so also where it matters politically in Russia.
So it puts pressure on the wall Tom described so nicely last time.
Tom: considering everything that you stated in pt.1 and now in pt.2 what do you think is the likelihood that all of the IRGC Ballistic Missile deliveries "BREWHAHA" is all 'Smoke-and-Mirrors' to create a situation in which the United States would be able to allow the near unrestricted use of ATACMS Missiles against targets inside of Russia???
I think that Biden & Co are searching for a scapegoat.
While ignoring warnings from the CIA and SIS, they've delivered dozens of billions worth arms and ammo to Israel, supported (and are still supporting) the Zionist genocide on Palestinians, and then run that idiotic adventure in Yemen. And nothing worked.
Somebody now 'must pay' for their own mistakes. And Iran is such a perfect scapegoat.
Reasons for their mutual differences are usually little else but such like, 'and, who's going to sell TV-sets and refridgerators to what part of Iraq?'
In this regards, there's 0 difference between the Iranian, US, EU oligarchy.
Usually (though not always), this is depending on geographic area in question (see 'Gangs of Tehran, Esfahan, Shiraz, Qom etc.) and then on the economic branch the clique in question is controlling (banks, insurances, oil industry, defence sector, real estate etc., etc., etc.).
They are also not part of the government in Italy. That shifts possibilities. As far as I get it, the Mullah regime needs those to stay in power, much like Putin needs his Siloviki infights.
If the PRC is desperate for combat data then from that perspective they'll be very happy to see their designs tried in the real world.
If no missiles were actually delivered but the idea of them is good for Ukraine politically, it would make 100% sense for Ukraine to claim that they destroyed the imported missiles in a drone attack. Then there is no need to explain why no wreckage ever gets found in Ukraine.
The PRC is much too clever for that. Just much harder to read - usually because people busying themselves with Beijing (I'm none of that: actually, and like everybody else, I'm depending on 'third parties' for 'reliable' assessments about what is Beijing after) simply ignore that part of their job: damning 'the Chinese' for 'aggression' is earning much bigger bucks.
The International Monetary Fund's decision looks like a kick in the ass for the official West, or a signal that the world's financial bigwigs think it's time to make peace with Russia.
Wasn't the October Surprise that ended Carter's presidency contingent on back-channel Republican plotting with the Mullahs to supply replacement engines for the F4s after Carter lost and the hostages were released?
Carter was US president 1976-1981... during his administration, the US sales of arms to Iran have reached their peak. But also: in 1978-1979, the Shah was overthrown because Carter refused to 'permit' him to smash the popular protesting that then led to his overthrow (in the so-called 'Islamic Revolution'). And the IRGC then occupied the US embassy in Tehran, and then 'Carter's' rescue operation failed, contributing to his failure to get re-elected...
Reagan took over in 1981, but became active in Iran already earlier: it was because of him that the hostages in the US embassy were released only in that year, instead already earlier. As next, early during his presidency, his administration was 'looking the other way' while Iran continued 'clandestinely' purchasing arms and spares from USA, UK, and Israel. Then, in 1984-1985, he changed his policy and the USA began supporting Iraq. Finally, in 1986, the Reagan admin attempted to finance its 'clandestine' adventures in Nicaragua through 'clandestine' arms deliveries to Iran (partially via Israel). That's what became known as the 'Iran-Gate'.
Eventually, Reagan left Iraq drag the USA into the Iran-Iraq War - through providing credits and helicopters, and then escorting tankers for Kuwait (which were hauling crude paying for Iraqi war effort). This resulted in the Iraqi strike on USS Stark (FFG-31), then the massive deployment of the US Navy in the Persian Gulf, and US-Iranian clashes of August 1987 - June 1988....
Tom your insight into this has been consistent all the way through. Funny that the media here in the UK is really pushing the message that the missiles have been delivered, just as Blinken and Lammy visit Kiev, amid ‘talk’ that this moves the dial to being more in favour of the US lifting restrictions. I seem to have an itch in my little toe…….. must be something I ate…
That's the problem with the media nowadays (and for decades already): 0 research, only copy-pasting.
Ah well... lets wait and see if they're all right with being upset, or if there's just another shipment of cars and tyres from Iran...
If the story about Iranian missiles is true, that's not the problem - as long as it offers a good pretext for unlocking the use of western weapons inside Russia
...just how uncertain is the Trio Fantasticus about all the 'news about the Iranian ballistic missiles in Russia' - is obvious alone from the fact that it's not lifting such limits. Merely talking about talking...
Currently Russia is the big villain. So there is quite an interest in the back sharing and transferring this status to Iran.
May become handy in case you need to explain why you spent half a billion on defending Israel to the taxpayer.
That's precisely the way this entire affair appears to me: 'make Iranians the scapegoats' - foremost for all the own failures.
Additionally a war for distraction gets higher public approval. Iran was on the list of the neocons according to Wesly Clark.
Need to keep this on standby, just in case.
"During the night from 9 to 10 October"
surely you mean September
Well, you know what they say about first signs of lunacy? :P
https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/667673-yak-iran-peredav-rosiji-raketi-sky-news-diznavsya-marshrut-dati-i-kilkist-suputnikovi-znimki
This is the latest information in the media.
Yup.
The last time I recall they have shown such sat-photos, the ship in question carried a load of Western cars for Russia.
Tom, it is all about emotions nowadays. It doesn't need to be real as long as you can feel it and hence you identify cars as rockets.
Don't be so attached to reality please.
Thanks. I am very much attached to reality: can't any other way.
Well, then you have to live with the side effects of that precious drug.
Perhaps this was a pretext for introducing additional sanctions against Iran or a precautionary measure.
Rather: 'search for a scapegoat' for own failures (of the West).
....and Iran is such an excellent scapegoat for everything bad...
Thank you for delivering fact-based analysis instead of the standard "hair on fire" variety.
IMO Puttler is white mad to destroy Ukraine, so is more keen to sell Su-35 with everything if other party has something he thinks make Ukraine cry.
Don't forget the traditional rivalry between the two, the Russian racism, and Putin's lack of far-sight.
He's clever, no doubt. But, not clever enough to enter the kind of cooperations with Iran, which the Iranians want: for him, Iranians are '2nd class citizens', 'cocroaches', 'camel riders' - no 'strategic partners'.
Yep, I know this Ruzzian chauvinism well. But when camel riders have something Russians really want, then they make a deal. Fath 360 has not such value to trade for Su-35, but maybe Putler traded something "smaller" e.g. some missile design, Israel intel, ...
BTW. about that Ruzzian chauvinism - Putler is not Hitler. Tuvans are even 3rd class citizens to many Ruzzians, but Putin made Shoigu a minister two times. Etc. with other nations in Russia.
BTW 2. Iranians are such chauvinist, too. :D
You sure are right that Putin in power would never make a honest deal.
... but I think right now Russia is no longer recognized as that cold war capable monstrosity by their partners. I think they already took some lessons of the art of begging.
Anyway, if there will be missiles,then there will be pieces left and Ukraine is tediously sweeping the ground for everything related. We will see.
By the way, somebody else noticed that in the last few days the daily Russian losses contains far less tanks than usual. By any chance, do you have any comment on that? Just noise in data?
Ps.: accidentally, do you have any information about Russia still using S300 in ballistic mode?
Russians aren't using tanks as much, not because they don't have them but because they need to traverse large territories fast (especially in the Pokrovsk direction) and this is why they use fast moving motorcycles and troop transports before they can be seen by drones and be reacted upon.
My thought has been that while Iran's 'mid-range' missiles can't rach Israel from Iran that they are still a threat is deployed in allies closer to Israel and that Iran quite likely sees that as a greater priority.
After all Iran still has yet to fully retaliate for the assassination in Iran. And as a number of sources stated that Iran had not used is latest and best in its 'massive' strike that Israel (with significant help) handled so well sending missiles to Russia would potentially lessen a future strike.
One also wonders if in using their older stocks in that previous strike the Iranians were mapping and testing the capabilities of Israels missile and drone defences...
Thanks for this thread Tom (and the previous ones, also)
Do you think that all this is a US PR mission with the following goal : crying to media "what ? Iran is providing missils to Russia , we have to lift limits to our weapons and Russia can't threat about anything becoz it's a bad nation that is collecting missils from the ugliest countries in the world" ?
Too consistent plan.
I think that Biden & Co are searching for a scapegoat.
While ignoring warnings from the CIA and SIS, they've delivered dozens of billions worth arms and ammo to Israel, supported (and are still supporting) the Zionist genocide on Palestinians, and then run that idiotic adventure in Yemen. And nothing worked.
Somebody now 'must pay' for their own mistakes. And Iran is such a perfect scapegoat.
Greatly grateful for your untired level of work, and all this master class on “ancient” history. They are not only informative, it lift the fog Media and RuZZian BS spreading groups had created about the real situation in Ukraine.
Many thanks and keep on!
That was very interesting indeed, thank you 👍.
Those crazy Russians. With their bad business practices and tendancy to invade other countries 🤷🏼♂️.
....plus racism.
Is never a good advisor.
Since there probably were not Iranian ballistic missiles at the Ramenskoye air base, is there reason to think there is anything particularly special at Ramenskoye, or just a good opportunity blow up Russian munitions?
As this was a major thing during Soviet times, it is definitely a major thing today as well. Furthermore it is basically Moscow, so also where it matters politically in Russia.
So it puts pressure on the wall Tom described so nicely last time.
Tom: considering everything that you stated in pt.1 and now in pt.2 what do you think is the likelihood that all of the IRGC Ballistic Missile deliveries "BREWHAHA" is all 'Smoke-and-Mirrors' to create a situation in which the United States would be able to allow the near unrestricted use of ATACMS Missiles against targets inside of Russia???
Just a thought..... (o:
Exactly my feeling…..seems very crude and obvious but………
That's a possibility, indeed, to use the story as a pretext for unlocking the western weapons for use inside Russia
I think that Biden & Co are searching for a scapegoat.
While ignoring warnings from the CIA and SIS, they've delivered dozens of billions worth arms and ammo to Israel, supported (and are still supporting) the Zionist genocide on Palestinians, and then run that idiotic adventure in Yemen. And nothing worked.
Somebody now 'must pay' for their own mistakes. And Iran is such a perfect scapegoat.
ok
Thanks Tom.
Are those cliques in the IRGC of ideological or more regional, tribal nature?
They're foremost greedy.
Reasons for their mutual differences are usually little else but such like, 'and, who's going to sell TV-sets and refridgerators to what part of Iraq?'
In this regards, there's 0 difference between the Iranian, US, EU oligarchy.
Yes, but how do they differentiate to which clique you belong?
Usually (though not always), this is depending on geographic area in question (see 'Gangs of Tehran, Esfahan, Shiraz, Qom etc.) and then on the economic branch the clique in question is controlling (banks, insurances, oil industry, defence sector, real estate etc., etc., etc.).
Thanks, sounds like the Italian mafia or the drug cartels to me.
Trust me, they (Cosa Nostra) are bloody amateurs in comparison.
They are also not part of the government in Italy. That shifts possibilities. As far as I get it, the Mullah regime needs those to stay in power, much like Putin needs his Siloviki infights.
If the PRC is desperate for combat data then from that perspective they'll be very happy to see their designs tried in the real world.
If no missiles were actually delivered but the idea of them is good for Ukraine politically, it would make 100% sense for Ukraine to claim that they destroyed the imported missiles in a drone attack. Then there is no need to explain why no wreckage ever gets found in Ukraine.
The PRC is much too clever for that. Just much harder to read - usually because people busying themselves with Beijing (I'm none of that: actually, and like everybody else, I'm depending on 'third parties' for 'reliable' assessments about what is Beijing after) simply ignore that part of their job: damning 'the Chinese' for 'aggression' is earning much bigger bucks.
Hi Tom.
How can you comment on this information:
https://hromadske.ua/ru/mir/231207-strany-es-udivleny-i-ozabocheny-planami-mvf-vozobnovit-sotrudnichestvo-s-rf
The International Monetary Fund's decision looks like a kick in the ass for the official West, or a signal that the world's financial bigwigs think it's time to make peace with Russia.
Wasn't the October Surprise that ended Carter's presidency contingent on back-channel Republican plotting with the Mullahs to supply replacement engines for the F4s after Carter lost and the hostages were released?
Sorry, not sure I understand your question.
Carter was US president 1976-1981... during his administration, the US sales of arms to Iran have reached their peak. But also: in 1978-1979, the Shah was overthrown because Carter refused to 'permit' him to smash the popular protesting that then led to his overthrow (in the so-called 'Islamic Revolution'). And the IRGC then occupied the US embassy in Tehran, and then 'Carter's' rescue operation failed, contributing to his failure to get re-elected...
Reagan took over in 1981, but became active in Iran already earlier: it was because of him that the hostages in the US embassy were released only in that year, instead already earlier. As next, early during his presidency, his administration was 'looking the other way' while Iran continued 'clandestinely' purchasing arms and spares from USA, UK, and Israel. Then, in 1984-1985, he changed his policy and the USA began supporting Iraq. Finally, in 1986, the Reagan admin attempted to finance its 'clandestine' adventures in Nicaragua through 'clandestine' arms deliveries to Iran (partially via Israel). That's what became known as the 'Iran-Gate'.
Eventually, Reagan left Iraq drag the USA into the Iran-Iraq War - through providing credits and helicopters, and then escorting tankers for Kuwait (which were hauling crude paying for Iraqi war effort). This resulted in the Iraqi strike on USS Stark (FFG-31), then the massive deployment of the US Navy in the Persian Gulf, and US-Iranian clashes of August 1987 - June 1988....