Please explain to me how do nincompoop become generals and lead army? Why is the general staff in Ukraine not learning any lessons or completely refusing to learn lessons? Why oh why? Even the incompetent Russian Soviet era mentality command has learned a few things and made adjustments but Ukraine zero adjustments to tactics. Isn't there a saying "insanity means doing the same thing again and again and again expecting different results?"
Oh, don't worry. Nothing's over yet. There is a concentration of Russian forces and logistics now, in that direction; they surely will continue the offence into Ukraine proper now.
I can't wait to see the marvellous defensive positions Ukraine has built in the region preparing for inevitable retreat and fighting in newly established front. They had plenty of time, after all. Marvellous, marvellous defensive positions, very smart, very scientific, some people, many people, say, the best. The best. Can't wait to see them.
While 47 is definitely capable of something like that, would rank and file US military go along with it, know fully well they're condemning Ukrainians to death and striking a blow to Ukraine while doing it? A lot of the people who have the access have probably worked closely with Ukrainians for a long time.
It seems far fetched to me, I think it is more likely that the russians were able to develop enough intelligence on their own, surveillance drones and humint, coupled with possibly a new commander with brains, who was able to put together a cohesive plan of action.
Another possibility is that Yermak gave it away, as a way to increase the chance of some sort of deal or please the Americans - wouldn't surprise me in the least, I've always wondered exactly what role he played in the Wagnergate debacle.
I don't think that Trump (and co) had any knowledge about any actual positions at that level.
_
Though, I suspect that Ukraine started to limit their supply usage at the very moment they got hints about the stopped deliveries. That could certainly play a role. Also, the timing of cutting the intelligence is really suspicious...
_
Furthermore - sadly, resuming of deliveries is just a cheap promise so far. I hope that I'll be wrong, but I think Trump will continue to play this game for a while, without actually providing anything (or, just minimal) physically.
_
The world needs to face it: the US is no longer a reliable ally => things needs to be adjusted, fast. First thing first: Ukraine needs reliable supply, fast.
There was no need. Russians had 24/7 observation of Ukrainian positions and logistics around Sudzha through drones, of which observation there are plenty videos. Meanwhile, Ukrainians had serious problems in sharing information either vertically - command had no idea what is happening - or horizontally - some Ukrainian troops were aware of demolished bridge in the photo, but the unit moving by that road had no access to that information.
If the orange clown did it, then not out of malice but sheer stupidity. It is well known that he is not the brightest candle on the cake with some wondering if that candle is burning at all.
That is: those troops that could do so. Dozens were killed while trying to escape; dozens captured during the withdrawal: many summarily executed... I am sure there are still several scattered groups inside Russia, trying to find a way back to own lines...
Just "dozens"? If the losses were that small, then that was a brilliantly successful fighting retreat. Which is not what it sounds like in your description. So, can you elaborate? I highly respect your evaluations of such situations, so all ears here.
Yeah, but Tom described as a "rout". Just dozens of casualties when getting thousands of troops out of a bad cauldron - that would be an exceptional feat of arms. Not a rout at all.
I don't think Tom's analysis is correct there. There are some photos and quick movement of the front and the first emotional response is to declare it to be a rout. Analytics I've listened to, on the contrary, think, that it was a kind of prepared evacuation, or so it seems. At least last week they were worried that it would be a lot worse, and what happened is better than what they've expected.
There was a significant number of videos (Russian mostly) where Russian forces, advancing to formerly defended positions, met no resistance or very small rear-guard actions and when they entered positions, there was no one there - at least local commanders didn't have orders to stand and fight till the end.
The most losses are suffered, it seems, based on what we can see for now, when retreating Ukrainian forces have encountered destroyed bridges - not just the column in the photo, but other columns too - it is not easy to get over a river with all your mechanical units without good bridges, so some machines were left, some units have suffered from artillery and drones, et cetera.
The number of captured Ukrainians, so far, based on Russian videos, is relatively small, not even dozens, I think - anything that can be called a "rout" would likely produce a lot more videos of captured troops.
Generally, I have actually seen an opinion that this particular retreat was not done against orders or without any, but there was at least an attempt of organised and planned retreat. Based on available so far videos, it doesn't seem to be a "rout". Or catastrophe. One of the analysts even was relieved and hoped that it was a sign that high command have learned how to retreat. :)
May Dumpf ban of intel sharing be the reason of the fast collapse how some UA sources hints?
I suspect Dumpf&co may pressed UA to leave Kursk behind the scenes. Or "hinted" UA side that Kursk is "no-card" in their game, i.e. they would not accept any territory swap which is not in favour for Russia, only UA withdrawal.
Of course, 'time will tell'. But, right now - i.e. on basis of info that is currently available to me - I doubt that.
From what I know, the US intel was not good enough to provide tactical-level of assessments: even its operational-level intel, analysis and recommendations were miserable. It was excellent at the strategic-level, though. But, this was a tactical-level operation.
Much more than 'US treachery' this appears to be a well-planned operation based on lots of reconnaissance and exploiting weak spots in the Ukrainian deployment. At least the way it was run was 'classic' in terms of the Russian military arts.
As for claims about the Russians now precisely targeting StarLink terminals: sure, the Russians seem to have recently introduced to service electronic warfare systems enabling them to track down the StarLink. But, the ZSU was not really using the StarLink in the Kursk area. The service is not available inside Russia.
Highly unlikely. The problems with Kursk salient were discussed by analytics for the last 3 week, with nearly universal declaration of "situation is beyond critical" starting a week ago. Obviously, analytics couldn't know if anything is done about it, and everyone was hopeful.
Specifically lack of Russian movement in Pokrovsk and Toretsk were tied to likely transfer of troops, resources and supplies to Kursk region specifically for this operation. Russian bloggers' activity and videos' proliferation supported that theory.
everything is as usual, the russian attacks are repelled with losses of 10 to 1, everyone who crawled through the pipe was killed, victories everywhere, but then we see what we always see
That happens when idiots in the GenStab-U are misusing videos they think are going to 'bolster the morale of troops and population'.
Is the same like when they were releasing videos of 'Ukrainian tanks blowing up Russian APCs that are passing by', back in September - while these were showing scattered remnants of the destroyed mechanised battalion of the 128th Mountain-Assault brigade, cut off behind the Russian lines and fighting for their naked survival...
"everything is as usual, the russian attacks are repelled with losses of 10 to 1, everyone who crawled through the pipe was killed, victories everywhere, but then we see what we always see"
U forgot to mention poor 4 k North Koreans being killed now and then.....
Thanks Tom. Was worried about this, and good to find teh ground truth on this debacle.
Obvious question, though:
What role, if any, did the halt in US support play in this?
It seems very unlikely that a well-planned and executed op like this took place without weeks of preparation. Moreover, the trap was only sprung just when US support was withdrawn.
Also interesting that:
1) Vance tries to influence the German election shortly before--to favor the far right, and thus ham-string any European response.
2) Trump and Vance then fabricate an "incident" in the signing of the mineral deal, to try and create
American rage at Ukrainian intransigence.
3) Trump's tariff wars begin with just about everybody, further isolating the US from everyone but Russia.
Most of the Trump efforts were ham-handed at best, if not counter-productive. But do they still show a regime willing to go the extra mile to help Russia achieve its goals?
IOW, is this a new Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
With the German ultimately getting the shaft in this one...
All this is so, but puts too much emphasis on American agency. Given enough time the Russians can make a plan and execute it. The Ukrainian armed forces and government have had three years to learn how to fight more effectively, and now this.
"dozens captured during the withdrawal: many summarily executed..."
Any proofs of execution or it's a usual citing of "well-informed" UA sources?
While initially it indeed looked like excellently planned and implemented RU attack, now I am more and more sure that in parallel there was a kind of collusion for UA troops to leave Russia. UA losses high but not deadly, most of soldiers left positions unscrached. A rough comparison with RU retreat from Kherson back in 2022 when 30k best RU troops crossed Dnepr in the daylight without a single shot from UA side.
As usual you turn on a blind eye when it is about war crimes from the RF. Just watch the videos of the Russian war bloggers, they are proud about their crimes.
My dear Latvian ashkenasi. Crimes are done by both sides, I never confronted that. What I challenge is the idea of serial or goverment's authorised executions (at least, in Russian case).
Sorry, the sort of ethnic wars Russians are in love with killed 60 million+ last century. Any attempts to change borders thru force have to be dealt with harshly & decisively.
We were just too weak in our response. Many more Russians should have died up til now.
And the distinction is rather more like Canadians & Americans. We have far more in common with Canada than Russia has with Ukraine.
Am proud to be an American. But after two unsuccessful invasions of Canada know better than to try a third.
"We have far more in common with Canada than Russia has with Ukraine." Who told U this? ))) Zelensky? CNN?)
RU and UA were a part of the same country for more than 300+ years. Ukraine is very different in its parts. Western Ukraine and Estern Ulraine it's two different worlds.
I am a quarter Ukranian myself, amd I know what I say.
The International Jewish Conspiracy is behind this war too?! Like Erdogan is from Thessalonika? My limited sources have his family having roots in Georgia. The good news for Kremlin is that the Russian army can plan and coordinate a successful attack, even with Koreans.
Tom is good. Frankly, I am ready to forgive him anything for his Iran-Iraq researches. It was a lightning strike to me back in early 2000 when I first read it. I still happily and stupidly smile of admiration for the collossal amount of info I read about it. Ok, Tomcats kills are 3 or 4 times inflated, 300 AS-4s presumably launched were never there, and etc. Still, Tom caused a enormous interest for the subject that is still underrated, and only by this he came to the history.
As per Ukraine, he is too emotional. He is for UA case, that hurts his objectiveness, bit I can live with this.
If it was a collusion then I don't think it went exactly as agreed; too many losses on the UA side. I think the evidence supports RU just pushing Ukraine out, the result of a months-long effort
It goes in parallel. RU troops go serious, while UA troops retreat under collusion. Both sides are happy. After Khersongate in 2022, when Russian troops left the city without a single loss, I do not buy any official PRBS.
Now it's a fine time for Putin to declare victory and peace. This was doomed when Ukrainians in a summary were not able to reach Korenevo and Rylsk. Quite unfortunate, but it is what it is. Overall it feels like Ukrainians were too little too late in their efforts at various stages of the war.
Just a small question - when we know that the Russians are deliberately shifting the CoG /center of gravity/ ín their main theatres then I do not know why should we relax when we see that they even let Ukrainian reentering Toretsk or they let Ukrainian forces to commit more resources for defending western blocks of Csasziv Jar - ín a severely degraded defensive position - somehow I see that Bahmut was strategically necessary to pulverize the city tying up the Ukrainian brigades but from last year they operate through a reoccuring pattern - like Aavdivka style - and they actively shift focus - this mesns that I do not know if that is a real Ukrainian feat or just the Russian theatre command shifting their focus - which is eventually coming back - if Ukrainian troops cannot build defense or cannot eliminate the Oskol salient on the right bank then I think we cannot speak of improved situation.
Thanks for the update, the previous maps before of others about the Russian infiltration of Sudzha points to such need for ZSU units to retrograde themselves, more confirmation of the that withdrawal under fire is costly for the side that is in retrograde.
Hoping that the ZSU units/or sub units still in withdrawal from Russia be able to reach safe lines, or for the ZSU to launch limited offensives to provide relief points for said personnel. The window for solidification of the VSRF front lines might still be open.
I hope that was a sarcastic comment. Otherwise, you need to get out of your informational bubble. Start with subscribing to a news feed from the 'other side' and watch / read it every day. Along with whatever absolute unbiased top quality stuff you're currently consuming.
On this particular topic, the retreat from Kursk, I’m interested in the subtle difference in reporting between yourself and Andrew Tanner from Rogue Systems. His most recent update suggested that the retreat was more timely and orderly than you have suggested. Am I reading this right? And if so, why do you think there is a difference here?
I also read Andrew Tanner's update and wondered about it. I really appreciate his contributions, but I found him a little too optimistic. I think Tom Cooper has more recent and accurate information. Given Russian actions in the area over the past two weeks, this was unfortunately a predictable outcome. The Ukrainian position was becoming untenable. Nothing was done to strengthen it. An orderly and controlled retreat should have been made long ago. I have the impression that it was only a matter of maintaining a "thorn in the side" of Russia for political purposes. And as always, the military pays dearly for the political.
I've got no idea why somebody else is reporting something else. Can only say why am I reporting what I do.
And videos showing an entire road full of smouldering hulks of ZSU's Bradleys, VABs, MT-LBs, Strykers, different MRAPs and dozens of corpses.... well, that doesn't look like an 'orderly withdrawal' to me, but as just another rout.
...of which we've seen far too many in Ukraine since 2014...
Moreover, the fact Syrsky has already found himself a scapegoat, is telling me that the 'official' Ukrainian explanation is a pile of BS.
That stupid only didn't expect it to become known that Brigadier-General Krasylnikov has left the OG North already in November, and lately commanded a mere battalion.
BTW, Krasylnikov - the man who led such a successful defence of places like Rubizhne, Kremina, Terny and (less successfully) Lyman - back in 2022, was 'dismissed' by Syrsky on 7 March, and this despite complaints from Drapaty... but this was kept secret until Mariana Bezuhla revealed it in one of her posts.
So, if anybody now comes with 'shock' or tries using words like 'sudden' because of 'bad news' from Kursk: wake up, finally.
"And videos showing an entire road full of smouldering hulks of ZSU's Bradleys, VABs, MT-LBs, Strykers, different MRAPs and dozens of corpses.... well, that doesn't look like an 'orderly withdrawal' to me, but as just another rout."
They were destroyed within last 6 months....not 3 last days
Thanks Tom.
It was inevitable, at what point does Zelenskyi and Yermak get tired of Syrskyy's bullshit and fire him?
This 'hold hold hold - run for your lives and leave people/equipment behind' tactic has to stop.
Well, actually, around this point it should be Zelensky growing tired of Yermak, just for the start.
....but, that's not going to happen...
We can dream..
Please explain to me how do nincompoop become generals and lead army? Why is the general staff in Ukraine not learning any lessons or completely refusing to learn lessons? Why oh why? Even the incompetent Russian Soviet era mentality command has learned a few things and made adjustments but Ukraine zero adjustments to tactics. Isn't there a saying "insanity means doing the same thing again and again and again expecting different results?"
Oh, don't worry. Nothing's over yet. There is a concentration of Russian forces and logistics now, in that direction; they surely will continue the offence into Ukraine proper now.
I can't wait to see the marvellous defensive positions Ukraine has built in the region preparing for inevitable retreat and fighting in newly established front. They had plenty of time, after all. Marvellous, marvellous defensive positions, very smart, very scientific, some people, many people, say, the best. The best. Can't wait to see them.
No chance Trump and co shared intel on Ukie positions with Russans... right?
While 47 is definitely capable of something like that, would rank and file US military go along with it, know fully well they're condemning Ukrainians to death and striking a blow to Ukraine while doing it? A lot of the people who have the access have probably worked closely with Ukrainians for a long time.
It seems far fetched to me, I think it is more likely that the russians were able to develop enough intelligence on their own, surveillance drones and humint, coupled with possibly a new commander with brains, who was able to put together a cohesive plan of action.
Another possibility is that Yermak gave it away, as a way to increase the chance of some sort of deal or please the Americans - wouldn't surprise me in the least, I've always wondered exactly what role he played in the Wagnergate debacle.
I don't think that Trump (and co) had any knowledge about any actual positions at that level.
_
Though, I suspect that Ukraine started to limit their supply usage at the very moment they got hints about the stopped deliveries. That could certainly play a role. Also, the timing of cutting the intelligence is really suspicious...
_
Furthermore - sadly, resuming of deliveries is just a cheap promise so far. I hope that I'll be wrong, but I think Trump will continue to play this game for a while, without actually providing anything (or, just minimal) physically.
_
The world needs to face it: the US is no longer a reliable ally => things needs to be adjusted, fast. First thing first: Ukraine needs reliable supply, fast.
There was no need. Russians had 24/7 observation of Ukrainian positions and logistics around Sudzha through drones, of which observation there are plenty videos. Meanwhile, Ukrainians had serious problems in sharing information either vertically - command had no idea what is happening - or horizontally - some Ukrainian troops were aware of demolished bridge in the photo, but the unit moving by that road had no access to that information.
x10.
And there's supposedly a battle management system capable of sharing information about these things...
If the orange clown did it, then not out of malice but sheer stupidity. It is well known that he is not the brightest candle on the cake with some wondering if that candle is burning at all.
Я не повірив *генералу який не приносить поганих новин, що загрози оточення немає.
Слава богу що вивели людей, техніку замінити можна, а людей тільки нових набрати.
Подивимось, можливо все це було під припинення вогню.
So do I understand right that the Ukrainians have left all of the ruzzian territory of Kursk ?
Yes.
That is: those troops that could do so. Dozens were killed while trying to escape; dozens captured during the withdrawal: many summarily executed... I am sure there are still several scattered groups inside Russia, trying to find a way back to own lines...
Devastating. Thank you so much.
Just "dozens"? If the losses were that small, then that was a brilliantly successful fighting retreat. Which is not what it sounds like in your description. So, can you elaborate? I highly respect your evaluations of such situations, so all ears here.
"Dozens" is a lot in modern day fighting. Dozens also easily add up to hundreds. Like a dozen dozens is 150 dead.
Yeah, but Tom described as a "rout". Just dozens of casualties when getting thousands of troops out of a bad cauldron - that would be an exceptional feat of arms. Not a rout at all.
I don't think Tom's analysis is correct there. There are some photos and quick movement of the front and the first emotional response is to declare it to be a rout. Analytics I've listened to, on the contrary, think, that it was a kind of prepared evacuation, or so it seems. At least last week they were worried that it would be a lot worse, and what happened is better than what they've expected.
There was a significant number of videos (Russian mostly) where Russian forces, advancing to formerly defended positions, met no resistance or very small rear-guard actions and when they entered positions, there was no one there - at least local commanders didn't have orders to stand and fight till the end.
The most losses are suffered, it seems, based on what we can see for now, when retreating Ukrainian forces have encountered destroyed bridges - not just the column in the photo, but other columns too - it is not easy to get over a river with all your mechanical units without good bridges, so some machines were left, some units have suffered from artillery and drones, et cetera.
The number of captured Ukrainians, so far, based on Russian videos, is relatively small, not even dozens, I think - anything that can be called a "rout" would likely produce a lot more videos of captured troops.
Generally, I have actually seen an opinion that this particular retreat was not done against orders or without any, but there was at least an attempt of organised and planned retreat. Based on available so far videos, it doesn't seem to be a "rout". Or catastrophe. One of the analysts even was relieved and hoped that it was a sign that high command have learned how to retreat. :)
And thank you very much.
May Dumpf ban of intel sharing be the reason of the fast collapse how some UA sources hints?
I suspect Dumpf&co may pressed UA to leave Kursk behind the scenes. Or "hinted" UA side that Kursk is "no-card" in their game, i.e. they would not accept any territory swap which is not in favour for Russia, only UA withdrawal.
Of course, 'time will tell'. But, right now - i.e. on basis of info that is currently available to me - I doubt that.
From what I know, the US intel was not good enough to provide tactical-level of assessments: even its operational-level intel, analysis and recommendations were miserable. It was excellent at the strategic-level, though. But, this was a tactical-level operation.
Much more than 'US treachery' this appears to be a well-planned operation based on lots of reconnaissance and exploiting weak spots in the Ukrainian deployment. At least the way it was run was 'classic' in terms of the Russian military arts.
As for claims about the Russians now precisely targeting StarLink terminals: sure, the Russians seem to have recently introduced to service electronic warfare systems enabling them to track down the StarLink. But, the ZSU was not really using the StarLink in the Kursk area. The service is not available inside Russia.
Highly unlikely. The problems with Kursk salient were discussed by analytics for the last 3 week, with nearly universal declaration of "situation is beyond critical" starting a week ago. Obviously, analytics couldn't know if anything is done about it, and everyone was hopeful.
Specifically lack of Russian movement in Pokrovsk and Toretsk were tied to likely transfer of troops, resources and supplies to Kursk region specifically for this operation. Russian bloggers' activity and videos' proliferation supported that theory.
everything is as usual, the russian attacks are repelled with losses of 10 to 1, everyone who crawled through the pipe was killed, victories everywhere, but then we see what we always see
That happens when idiots in the GenStab-U are misusing videos they think are going to 'bolster the morale of troops and population'.
Is the same like when they were releasing videos of 'Ukrainian tanks blowing up Russian APCs that are passing by', back in September - while these were showing scattered remnants of the destroyed mechanised battalion of the 128th Mountain-Assault brigade, cut off behind the Russian lines and fighting for their naked survival...
"everything is as usual, the russian attacks are repelled with losses of 10 to 1, everyone who crawled through the pipe was killed, victories everywhere, but then we see what we always see"
U forgot to mention poor 4 k North Koreans being killed now and then.....
All trained by the Russians, aren't they?
Nope, they are good by themselves since 1950....)))
4,000 Koreans killed every day, from what I hear.
Thanks Tom. Was worried about this, and good to find teh ground truth on this debacle.
Obvious question, though:
What role, if any, did the halt in US support play in this?
It seems very unlikely that a well-planned and executed op like this took place without weeks of preparation. Moreover, the trap was only sprung just when US support was withdrawn.
Also interesting that:
1) Vance tries to influence the German election shortly before--to favor the far right, and thus ham-string any European response.
2) Trump and Vance then fabricate an "incident" in the signing of the mineral deal, to try and create
American rage at Ukrainian intransigence.
3) Trump's tariff wars begin with just about everybody, further isolating the US from everyone but Russia.
Most of the Trump efforts were ham-handed at best, if not counter-productive. But do they still show a regime willing to go the extra mile to help Russia achieve its goals?
IOW, is this a new Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
With the German ultimately getting the shaft in this one...
Germany has the strength to overcome it
All this is so, but puts too much emphasis on American agency. Given enough time the Russians can make a plan and execute it. The Ukrainian armed forces and government have had three years to learn how to fight more effectively, and now this.
I have no doubt the result would have been almost the same. Looks like a very well-planned op, finally.
The point, however, is the timing. It's far too coincidental. Indeed, one might fear that this was a suggestion from Putin's to Trump:
"Don't you have the guts to keep your vassals in line, the way I do?!"
Syrsky may have read too much about WW2 - especially that Paulus hasn't surrendered, but got captured.
More a politician than a general.
"dozens captured during the withdrawal: many summarily executed..."
Any proofs of execution or it's a usual citing of "well-informed" UA sources?
While initially it indeed looked like excellently planned and implemented RU attack, now I am more and more sure that in parallel there was a kind of collusion for UA troops to leave Russia. UA losses high but not deadly, most of soldiers left positions unscrached. A rough comparison with RU retreat from Kherson back in 2022 when 30k best RU troops crossed Dnepr in the daylight without a single shot from UA side.
Looks like the truce is indeed coming
As usual you turn on a blind eye when it is about war crimes from the RF. Just watch the videos of the Russian war bloggers, they are proud about their crimes.
My dear Latvian ashkenasi. Crimes are done by both sides, I never confronted that. What I challenge is the idea of serial or goverment's authorised executions (at least, in Russian case).
Sorry, the difference between a decent civilization and one that is not.
Not investigating or controlling war crimes is a crime in itself.
But why worry about one category of crime, when Russia has so many others...
Have you ever heard about Alley of Angels in Donetsk?
Solo in Italiano, English version is destroyed in Wiki:
https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viale_degli_angeli
It's a monument in Donetsk dedicated to the kids killed by UA bombardements before (!!!) 2022.
Sorry, it's a civil war between Russians and "wonna be different" Ukranian Russian. And, of course, ashkenasi from both sides pull the strings.
Sorry, the sort of ethnic wars Russians are in love with killed 60 million+ last century. Any attempts to change borders thru force have to be dealt with harshly & decisively.
We were just too weak in our response. Many more Russians should have died up til now.
And the distinction is rather more like Canadians & Americans. We have far more in common with Canada than Russia has with Ukraine.
Am proud to be an American. But after two unsuccessful invasions of Canada know better than to try a third.
Canadians will never be Americans.
And Ukrainians will never be Russians.
The last 300 years is proof...
"We have far more in common with Canada than Russia has with Ukraine." Who told U this? ))) Zelensky? CNN?)
RU and UA were a part of the same country for more than 300+ years. Ukraine is very different in its parts. Western Ukraine and Estern Ulraine it's two different worlds.
I am a quarter Ukranian myself, amd I know what I say.
The International Jewish Conspiracy is behind this war too?! Like Erdogan is from Thessalonika? My limited sources have his family having roots in Georgia. The good news for Kremlin is that the Russian army can plan and coordinate a successful attack, even with Koreans.
You do not have to be jewish to be a zionist.
Famous last words of Joe Biden , former US president
https://youtu.be/DDR-tWM2zzU?si=_uSu002yxsEfVr8Z
Did you consume some strange stuff or why do you think I am a Latvian ashkenasi?
Or is your confusion your standard attitude. I have absolutely no connection to Latvia. Till now I was never there, but I am sure it is worth a visit.
My man, you really expect from Tom anything rational? He still sticks to most BS propaganda about North Korean soldiers..
Tom is good. Frankly, I am ready to forgive him anything for his Iran-Iraq researches. It was a lightning strike to me back in early 2000 when I first read it. I still happily and stupidly smile of admiration for the collossal amount of info I read about it. Ok, Tomcats kills are 3 or 4 times inflated, 300 AS-4s presumably launched were never there, and etc. Still, Tom caused a enormous interest for the subject that is still underrated, and only by this he came to the history.
As per Ukraine, he is too emotional. He is for UA case, that hurts his objectiveness, bit I can live with this.
If it was a collusion then I don't think it went exactly as agreed; too many losses on the UA side. I think the evidence supports RU just pushing Ukraine out, the result of a months-long effort
It goes in parallel. RU troops go serious, while UA troops retreat under collusion. Both sides are happy. After Khersongate in 2022, when Russian troops left the city without a single loss, I do not buy any official PRBS.
I must give it to you are good too and get lots of points right even though you understandably get emotional.
But Putin said so from Kursk while wearing a military suit today:
"Russia will treat Ukrainian soldiers captured in Kursk region as terrorists.
Foreign mercenaries are not covered by the Geneva Convention.”
Now it's a fine time for Putin to declare victory and peace. This was doomed when Ukrainians in a summary were not able to reach Korenevo and Rylsk. Quite unfortunate, but it is what it is. Overall it feels like Ukrainians were too little too late in their efforts at various stages of the war.
No, it is not. He's recovered Kursk - months after the original pledge to do so, but still.
But, he's lost half of Toretsk and the advance on Pokrovsk is over.
At least it seems he's preparing for this: https://m.censor.net/ua/videonews/3540831/dyktator-rf-putin-pryyihav-u-kursku-oblast
For Toretsk and Pokrovsk no one from his target audience knows this probably.
Just a small question - when we know that the Russians are deliberately shifting the CoG /center of gravity/ ín their main theatres then I do not know why should we relax when we see that they even let Ukrainian reentering Toretsk or they let Ukrainian forces to commit more resources for defending western blocks of Csasziv Jar - ín a severely degraded defensive position - somehow I see that Bahmut was strategically necessary to pulverize the city tying up the Ukrainian brigades but from last year they operate through a reoccuring pattern - like Aavdivka style - and they actively shift focus - this mesns that I do not know if that is a real Ukrainian feat or just the Russian theatre command shifting their focus - which is eventually coming back - if Ukrainian troops cannot build defense or cannot eliminate the Oskol salient on the right bank then I think we cannot speak of improved situation.
Thanks for the update, the previous maps before of others about the Russian infiltration of Sudzha points to such need for ZSU units to retrograde themselves, more confirmation of the that withdrawal under fire is costly for the side that is in retrograde.
Hoping that the ZSU units/or sub units still in withdrawal from Russia be able to reach safe lines, or for the ZSU to launch limited offensives to provide relief points for said personnel. The window for solidification of the VSRF front lines might still be open.
What a tragedy, especially at this critical moment too!
Actually, it couldn`t have come in a better time! Go Russia, GO!
I hope that was a sarcastic comment. Otherwise, you need to get out of your informational bubble. Start with subscribing to a news feed from the 'other side' and watch / read it every day. Along with whatever absolute unbiased top quality stuff you're currently consuming.
Thanks Tom,
On this particular topic, the retreat from Kursk, I’m interested in the subtle difference in reporting between yourself and Andrew Tanner from Rogue Systems. His most recent update suggested that the retreat was more timely and orderly than you have suggested. Am I reading this right? And if so, why do you think there is a difference here?
Appreciative as always.
Many thanks
I also read Andrew Tanner's update and wondered about it. I really appreciate his contributions, but I found him a little too optimistic. I think Tom Cooper has more recent and accurate information. Given Russian actions in the area over the past two weeks, this was unfortunately a predictable outcome. The Ukrainian position was becoming untenable. Nothing was done to strengthen it. An orderly and controlled retreat should have been made long ago. I have the impression that it was only a matter of maintaining a "thorn in the side" of Russia for political purposes. And as always, the military pays dearly for the political.
I've got no idea why somebody else is reporting something else. Can only say why am I reporting what I do.
And videos showing an entire road full of smouldering hulks of ZSU's Bradleys, VABs, MT-LBs, Strykers, different MRAPs and dozens of corpses.... well, that doesn't look like an 'orderly withdrawal' to me, but as just another rout.
...of which we've seen far too many in Ukraine since 2014...
Moreover, the fact Syrsky has already found himself a scapegoat, is telling me that the 'official' Ukrainian explanation is a pile of BS.
https://rubryka.com/2025/03/12/zmi-zvilnyly-z-posady-komanduvacha-ok-pivnich-krasylnykova/
That stupid only didn't expect it to become known that Brigadier-General Krasylnikov has left the OG North already in November, and lately commanded a mere battalion.
BTW, Krasylnikov - the man who led such a successful defence of places like Rubizhne, Kremina, Terny and (less successfully) Lyman - back in 2022, was 'dismissed' by Syrsky on 7 March, and this despite complaints from Drapaty... but this was kept secret until Mariana Bezuhla revealed it in one of her posts.
So, if anybody now comes with 'shock' or tries using words like 'sudden' because of 'bad news' from Kursk: wake up, finally.
"And videos showing an entire road full of smouldering hulks of ZSU's Bradleys, VABs, MT-LBs, Strykers, different MRAPs and dozens of corpses.... well, that doesn't look like an 'orderly withdrawal' to me, but as just another rout."
They were destroyed within last 6 months....not 3 last days
Sure. And I need videos from the social media to know what's going on...