Syria War, 7 December 2024 (UPDATED)

Hello everybody!

This is going to be another long, long day…

In grand total, by now it’s clear that both the IRGC and Russia are evacuating Syria. They have called their citizens to leave; they are flying out their officials and military personnel; they are moving their ground forces towards Damascus - though even more so: towards the ports of Tartous and Latakia. Yesterday afternoon, the Russians have evacuated their helicopters from the T-4/Tiyas AB, east of Homs: these were flown towards the coast (probably to the Hmeymim AB). Columns of vehicles with ground personnel have followed shortly after.

Reportedly, Assad was in Tehran yesterday, but is meanwhile back to Damascus.

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Area-wise, from north towards south…

About 30 minutes ago (noon local time), the Türkye-supported SNA has launched its offensive on the Manbij area, held by the US-supported PKK/YPG/SDF. Before that, it spent the day yesterday by widening the area under its control from al-Khafsa in the north, in direction of Maskanah (westsern side of the Euphrates River): reports having liberated additional villages from the US-supported PKK/YPG/SDF-conglomerate.

This morning, they have liberated the village of Tel Aswad, east of the Jirah AB. In the Manbij area - now comes the best part - held by the US-supported PKK/YPG/SDF, the Russian and Asadist forces initiated their withdrawal as well. Where exactly do they plan to go is unclear, because from this part of Syria they can’t reach even Damascus any more, not to talk about the coast.

For its part, the PKK/YPG/SDF (aka PYD… gosh, they have a ‘branch’ for every second village; of course, that’s a joke: PYD is the ‘political party’ of the PKK in Syria; YPG is its ‘armed forces’), is ‘stressing’ that they are prepared and want to ‘solve problems’ with Türkye through negotiations..

Hm… we’re going to see if they really are. One should not forget that the entire leadership of the PKK/YPG/PYD/SDF is from Türkye, and not welcome even for Kurds of northern Syria. The fact it’s got 30+ brigades is growingly irrelevant considering at least 50% (some say up to 80%) of their troops are forcefully recruited Syrian Arabs.

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In Dayr az-Zawr, the uprising of local Arab tribes (foremost the al-Busraya Revolutionaries) against the US-supported PKK/YPG/SDF is spreading: they have announced their allegiance to the CMO and have secured a large area west of the city (stretching, at least, from Shumaytiyah to Ayash). South of Dayr az-Zawr, there is an armed uprising in Sabikhan against the PKK/YPG/SDF (on the Euphrates River), too.

Through the morning, the anti-PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-uprising spread to Muhasan, a town south of Dayr az-Zawr, famous for its anti-Assadist uprising of 2011 (they were also the first to shot down one of Assadist MiGs there).

For your easier orientation, here a map of Syria - without ‘territorial control’, rather with ‘rough directions of advance/withdrawal’ - and of anti-PKK/PDY/YPG/SDF-uprisings.

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Further south…

The Assadists are withdrawing nearly everywhere - except in the Homs area. There, they seem to be standing a rear-guard to buy time for other units to either fall back towards Damascus, or towards the coast. About two hours ago, the CMO launched its all-out attack on Homs. As meanwhile usual, the CMO's Shaheen unit opened this attack by striking Assadist positions in south-western Aleppo, plus the Shayrat AB. They have already secured some positions in Shahmi, Zhakf, and Gharab. Heavy fighting is reported from the Homs Military Academy. The Assadist 34th Brigade is said to have abandoned its positions and started to withdraw towards the coast. In turn, the Assadist air force is heavily bombing Rastan and Talbiseh (to no effect, though: killing yet more civilians is quite pointless where the actual target should be columns of ever additional CMO and some SNA units streaming towards Homs).

By the afternoon, the CMO insurgents have secured the Qosour District of northern Homs and were advancing into the centre of the city.

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In central Syria the last night, the Assadists have evacuated Palmyra/Tadmor: the local military bases (including the Tadmor AB) have all been abandoned. It’s unclear if anybody is taking over: must hope, the USA are going to let the Free Syrian Army to advance further from the Tanf pocket and secure the place (they have already secured Jabal al-Gharab).

Indeed, around the noon ‘rebels’ reportedly entered Palmyra. Clashes with Assadists left behind were reported from the northern districts of the city (which is interesting because the well-fortified Tadmor AB is in its south-east, and I would have expected the die-hard fans of God Assad to entrench themselves there).

Further west, around 15.00hrs local time the US-supported Free Syrian Army liberated Quryatayn and Farqalis. Quaryatayn is of particular importance: it’s only 50-55km east of the M5 highway, connecting Homs with Damascus. Moreover, the FSyA also approached the T-4/Tiyas AB: is the home-base of one of Assadist air force’s squadrons equipped with Sukhoi Su-24 fighter-bombers.

Mind, the US-supported FSyA (the branch ‘garrisoned’ in the Tanf area since 2015) is not going to be welcome if it moves further west: for many of Syrians in Damascus, Dera’a and Suwayda, they’re ‘traitors, trying to steal our revolution’.

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In the Dera’a Province, the Ahrar Horan OR declared its allegiance with the CMO. After securing Dera’a (city) it announced ‘advance on Damascus’. A column of the Assadist 52nd Brigade, which was left to evacuate the city in direction of the Thaleh AB, was then stopped short of the later and disarmed. Meanwhiel, the insurgents then moved to secure the Thaleh AB, followed by the al-Kam warehouses (largest military depot in southern Syria). As of this morning, its forces have liberated Izra, Inkhil and Ghabaghib, before reaching Qunaitra.

Inside of the Russian base in Mothbeen, a

Another prong of advance on Damascus was opened from as-Suwayda in northern direction: there, the insurgents - the Suwayda Operations Room, which pledged allegiance to the CMO - have already liberated Shahba and are in the process of doing the same with Umm az-Zaytun. Assadist air force reacted by air strikes on Harak and Dael, also with shelling of few other places.

In this part of Syria, serious fighting is to be expected only once the insurgents reach the Kisweh area and the Damascus IAP, where there are major military bases protecting southern Damascus. …where I was too fast: as of this morning, the Assadist 90th Brigade fled from Shawkatiyah, and then from Kisweh, and from ar-Rahiba, too.

As of around 16.00hrs local time, the insurgents of the Ahrar Horan OR (advancing from the direction of Qunaitra) were thus only 12km outside Damascus (BTW, usual car-drive from Damascus to Qunaitra lasted about 1 hour or so).

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As said: is going to be a long day. Thus, please check again and again, and expect several updates of this feature.