Well, with all of the publicity about his abduction and captivity if is a dead certainty that the IDf knows (knew?) he is (was?) a journalist and we all know how the IDF deals with journalists who aren't spokespersons for Israel...
Excellent update which leads me in connection with other sources to the following findings:
1) Stupidity never dies out and as a consequence gives the impression that history repeats itself, but that is just an impression, as it is stupidity repeating itself.
2) The western world is still sleeping and doesn't know to do with the change in Syria and is missing another opportunity for a lasting peace.
3) The USA in tradition of USS Liberty behavior is always looking away when the brat Israel does something it shouldn't have done.
4) Israel now uses the same textbook like the RF as pretext. In their case it is now the Druzes asking for annexation. They believe they are getting closer 'to Erez Israel', but in reality they are getting closer to the abyss. Believing in their illusion the warmonger will not stop. There is also a certain religious similiarity to ISIS.
5) The HTS leader attempts to play poker. We will see how well he can play. At least there is room for some surprises.
The consequences will be usually the same, graveyards will get bigger.
Thanks for the update. I find it absurd the no one, and I mean no one, in the west is saying a single word about what Israel is doing, which is indeed really similar to what Russia has done in Ukraine 2014. And even back then the west had just a little reaction and just a little late compared to the one they should have had.
Anyways, could you elaborate on the 'Battle of Kasham'? Weren't there Wagner fighters?
Never found any kind of serious evidence about some kind of 'large-scale' involvement of the Wagner PMC. On the contrary: although it was Prigozhin who started the entire affair (i.e. secured a contract for the exploitation of fields that were to be captured), main force consisted of IRGC-recruited (and, probably, UAE-paid) locals (see: 'Local Defence Forces', which was the IRGC's description for their attempts to organise something like 'Syrian Basiji').
Of course, when the Americans start shooting, then they request artillery support, and then air support, and orbital support and support from Mars and Jupiter... they were actually shooting so much, they continued killing the Syrians trying to recover bodies for days longer...
If that's the 'infamous' Wagner raid on Conoco refinery around Deyr ez-Zor, then the admin of Grey Zone telegram channel (he was a wagnerite killed in Africa by touregs) used to complain about that affair all the time and even used to post some kind of memoirs from another wagnerite detailing the whole operation from first person view.
Obviously new Syrian government needs support from at least some external parties. Turkey seems keen to build at least some partnership with them. Would it be enough to have Turkey as their main ally with potentially some financial support from Qatar but without getting in bed with ruzzian thugs who have been bombing them for X number of years?
Turkey is going to pivot towards the CMO as realpolitik sets in. The CMO will also need Turkey to act as a protector both politically and militarily. One can only hope that Bibi's trial removes him from politics, but probably don't hold your breath, given that justice and the rule of law in the democratic world are just for your average Joe and not your important Joe (Biden).
It is sad to assume that those evacuated S-300/400 will eventually bolster RF air defenses in vicinity of Ukraine... Were there a lot of them in Syria?
More than half of SDF members are Arabs and maybe few of them may have been enlisted involuntarily, but most of them not. Especially nowadays it's easy to defect to HTS controlled territory, and some of them did it, but no mass defection is reported. (Probably we will see more of them when SDF will be loosing, and they will loose, but's it's common to see defection from loosing militia.)
YPG/PKK are very left politically, many of them communists, Marxists etc. Although majority of population may disagree with them (especially about women rights :)), you cannot deny this attract similar minded non-Kurdish citizens, too, and they joined SDF voluntarily.
Erm, as mentioned yesterday, or the day before, an entire brigade of the 'SDF' switched sides. So, that with 'no mass defections' is rather a 'well-kept secret of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-conglomerate'.
And re. foreign volunteers serving with the YPG and YPJ: all nice and fine with me. Sadly, they're just going to end as naives who were there for the wrong purpose, at the wrong place and time.
Sorry I have missed that. I have seen this news https://syriadirect.org/protests-and-sdf-defections-discontent-simmers-in-eastern-deir-e-zor/ Point is, these guys were not complaining "oh that bloody SDF forced us to be commanders and spokespersons so we left now". They joined SDF voluntarily, like most of their Syrian Arab fellows who are there. (And I expect more of such defections because SDF future is not good and does not mater what we think about it.)
In regards of 'Arab armed militias that are elements of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF' conglomerate, there are two types: PKK's 'fronts', and - few (and ever less of them) - genuine formations. Just because two or three of militias joined the conglomerate voluntarily (back in 2015-2017 they were left with no other options), doesn't mean they all did so.
...and PKK's fronts are an entirely different story: primarily a PRBS-operation, aimed at discrediting Arab opposition to it.
Pay attention at the following: just like the Kurdish society is still a tribal society (of course, the PKK is doing its utmost to destroy this tradition), so also is the local Arab society of north/north-eastern Syria a traditionalist, conservative, tribal society.
So, when you start hearing about 'commanders defecting' - then that actually means that the mass of their units is defecting, too. That's so because 'commanders' are, usually, also local tribal leaders.
Yep, mass of the society is still tribal, which also divides the (already fragmented) society into "elite tribes" and "plebs tribes" with limited social mobility. For some tribes or just for some people, the revolution in 2011 was just that pre-assad elites wanted to replace Assad elites and they are left behind (again). And this is fertile soil for ideologies - communists in YPG/SDF, islamists in Daesh.
Sorry, but I've got no idea where are you getting your info about Syria: fact is, it would be wrong not only for 2011, but even for 1918.
Except you mean north/north-eastern Syria - no, the mass of the Syrian society is not tribal. Syrian population is rather urban (no surprise: places like Damascus are some of oldest continuously inhabitated cities ever). This is also why it's so pluralist (see: there are dozens of different political and religious ideologies even with the same sect, no matter which). At least before the Assadist- and IRGC's ethnic cleansings of 2012-2018, over 70% of Syrians used to live in cities of western Syria (foremost Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Idlib, Dera'a, etc.).
'Tribal' areas are are stretching from Palmyra in eastern and northern direction, and including Dayr az-Zawr, Raqqa, Hasaka, and Qamishli.
(BTW, except in Qamishli, most of the Kurds in Syria used to live in Afrin, north-western Aleppo (Sheikh Maqsood District), and Ayn al-Arab/Kobane regions - i.e. precisely 'along the northern fringes' of the 'tribal areas'.)
...which is why Syria was never fertile soil for any kind of foreign ideologies. Not only the SSNP (something like 'Arab Nazis', still quite popular in Lebanon), but neither pan-Arabists/Nasserists, nor the Communists or the Ba'ath ever found lots of sympathies, which is why the Ba'ath eventually had to organise itself the 'Defence Companies': to obtain capability to defend its regimes from coup-attempts (from within, from the armed forces, and from abroad). Indeed, this went so far that 'even' Syrian Salafists were disgusted by the Daesh, and the latter was not only aghast about them, but declared them for something like 'citizens 2nd class'.
And the revolution of 2011 was a pure grassroots affair. So much so, not only the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (all of which was living outside the country), but all the Western (plus the Israeli) intelligence services were wondering who is in charge (and they were so desperate to find out, that several ended asking such nobodies like me for advice, apparently because I have traveled around the country as much as I did).
It was lots of 'nobodies' that were in charge of the mass protests of 2011-2012 too: 5, 10, 15. 20 from one district, 2-4 from another etc... in total about 150,000 activists, the mass of them not even religious (even those coming from Salafist families didn't know how to pray, while at lest a third of 'first wave' Free Syrian Army units wore Christian names). Precisely that is why the Assadists went all out to destroy them, physically. why they incarcerated and murdered over 100,000 of them - while releasing such like Jowlani, and then several of future 'Emirs' of the Daesh from their prisons.
...and why, from 2012 to 2017, as long as there were liberated areas nominally controlled by the insurgents, Syrian civilians created over 400 civic authorites: over 200 of these used to be led by people elected in free elections.
...which is why the Russians made precisely such authorities the primary target of their bombing campaign, back in 2015-2016: they were the proof that the Syrians can organise themselves on their own, in perfectly pluralist fashion, without Assad, and without 'converting' into gangs of blood-thirsty head-choppers.
The mass of people who used to run such authorities is already in the process of returning to Syria, or about to commence doing that. Those that didn't flee have forced 'even' the HTS into becoming as pragmatic as it is nowadays. Precisely that is why I'm as confident that they'll not let any kind of extremism to dominate.
As to the Druze, it is often stated (and is likely true) that Palestinian-Israelis prefer living in Israel to the surrounding Arab states.
After all, even as 2nd/3rd class 'citizens' at least they aren't in the middle of shooting galleries with militias going around killing each others supporters and the Israeli economy <b>was</b> in better shape than those surrounding it.
Of course the screws are tightening on non-Jewish Israelis - as the Bedouin are finding with villages being erased and forced relocation to less desirable areas.
And, Israel is fast moving into a theocracy in which secular Jews are going to be left out in the cold.
Is there any room for American or Chinese companies to come in and help rebuild infrastructure? Or is this fluid situation too fluid? Turkish companies are probably interested.
Right now, it's simply too early for either of the two to 'feel safe' in the 'Syrian working environment'. Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are there a lot earlier than the Americans, though.
Thanks Tom. I hope the Austin Tice rumor isn’t true .
Well, with all of the publicity about his abduction and captivity if is a dead certainty that the IDf knows (knew?) he is (was?) a journalist and we all know how the IDF deals with journalists who aren't spokespersons for Israel...
Thank you
Excellent update which leads me in connection with other sources to the following findings:
1) Stupidity never dies out and as a consequence gives the impression that history repeats itself, but that is just an impression, as it is stupidity repeating itself.
2) The western world is still sleeping and doesn't know to do with the change in Syria and is missing another opportunity for a lasting peace.
3) The USA in tradition of USS Liberty behavior is always looking away when the brat Israel does something it shouldn't have done.
4) Israel now uses the same textbook like the RF as pretext. In their case it is now the Druzes asking for annexation. They believe they are getting closer 'to Erez Israel', but in reality they are getting closer to the abyss. Believing in their illusion the warmonger will not stop. There is also a certain religious similiarity to ISIS.
5) The HTS leader attempts to play poker. We will see how well he can play. At least there is room for some surprises.
The consequences will be usually the same, graveyards will get bigger.
Thanks for the update. I find it absurd the no one, and I mean no one, in the west is saying a single word about what Israel is doing, which is indeed really similar to what Russia has done in Ukraine 2014. And even back then the west had just a little reaction and just a little late compared to the one they should have had.
Anyways, could you elaborate on the 'Battle of Kasham'? Weren't there Wagner fighters?
Never found any kind of serious evidence about some kind of 'large-scale' involvement of the Wagner PMC. On the contrary: although it was Prigozhin who started the entire affair (i.e. secured a contract for the exploitation of fields that were to be captured), main force consisted of IRGC-recruited (and, probably, UAE-paid) locals (see: 'Local Defence Forces', which was the IRGC's description for their attempts to organise something like 'Syrian Basiji').
There were perhaps 14-20 Russians around, training one of IRGC's units, as described here: https://warisboring.com/the-u-s-military-bushwacked-iranian-troops-in-syria/
Of course, when the Americans start shooting, then they request artillery support, and then air support, and orbital support and support from Mars and Jupiter... they were actually shooting so much, they continued killing the Syrians trying to recover bodies for days longer...
If that's the 'infamous' Wagner raid on Conoco refinery around Deyr ez-Zor, then the admin of Grey Zone telegram channel (he was a wagnerite killed in Africa by touregs) used to complain about that affair all the time and even used to post some kind of memoirs from another wagnerite detailing the whole operation from first person view.
Yup. Just that there was no refinery but the Conoco oilfield, and they were no '200', no '400', and even less so '800' around.
The media, huxleys tools for lambs in teh western world
Obviously new Syrian government needs support from at least some external parties. Turkey seems keen to build at least some partnership with them. Would it be enough to have Turkey as their main ally with potentially some financial support from Qatar but without getting in bed with ruzzian thugs who have been bombing them for X number of years?
Yes, it would. Except the Israelis keep on pushing the Syrians even more towards Russia - or, and even more likely: the PRC.
Turkey is going to pivot towards the CMO as realpolitik sets in. The CMO will also need Turkey to act as a protector both politically and militarily. One can only hope that Bibi's trial removes him from politics, but probably don't hold your breath, given that justice and the rule of law in the democratic world are just for your average Joe and not your important Joe (Biden).
Not just Biden and his crowd. iL Duce too (w/the orange hair on his head).
Agreed, I just held the Democrats and Joe Biden to a higher standard (foolishly).
It is sad to assume that those evacuated S-300/400 will eventually bolster RF air defenses in vicinity of Ukraine... Were there a lot of them in Syria?
AFAIK, 1x S-300 and 1x S-400.
People in Israel are already talking about settlements in Syria: https://www.972mag.com/israeli-settlers-syria-lebanon/
There are members of the Israeli cabinet that want a 'Greater Israel'. https://mepei.com/greater-israel-an-ongoing-expansion-plan-for-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/
Does Turkie still have HTS on terrorist list?
AFAIK, no HTS, but some of groups making the HTS (as said: that's a coalition that, in turn, is a member of the CMO coalition).
More than half of SDF members are Arabs and maybe few of them may have been enlisted involuntarily, but most of them not. Especially nowadays it's easy to defect to HTS controlled territory, and some of them did it, but no mass defection is reported. (Probably we will see more of them when SDF will be loosing, and they will loose, but's it's common to see defection from loosing militia.)
YPG/PKK are very left politically, many of them communists, Marxists etc. Although majority of population may disagree with them (especially about women rights :)), you cannot deny this attract similar minded non-Kurdish citizens, too, and they joined SDF voluntarily.
Erm, as mentioned yesterday, or the day before, an entire brigade of the 'SDF' switched sides. So, that with 'no mass defections' is rather a 'well-kept secret of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-conglomerate'.
And re. foreign volunteers serving with the YPG and YPJ: all nice and fine with me. Sadly, they're just going to end as naives who were there for the wrong purpose, at the wrong place and time.
Sorry I have missed that. I have seen this news https://syriadirect.org/protests-and-sdf-defections-discontent-simmers-in-eastern-deir-e-zor/ Point is, these guys were not complaining "oh that bloody SDF forced us to be commanders and spokespersons so we left now". They joined SDF voluntarily, like most of their Syrian Arab fellows who are there. (And I expect more of such defections because SDF future is not good and does not mater what we think about it.)
In regards of 'Arab armed militias that are elements of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF' conglomerate, there are two types: PKK's 'fronts', and - few (and ever less of them) - genuine formations. Just because two or three of militias joined the conglomerate voluntarily (back in 2015-2017 they were left with no other options), doesn't mean they all did so.
...and PKK's fronts are an entirely different story: primarily a PRBS-operation, aimed at discrediting Arab opposition to it.
Pay attention at the following: just like the Kurdish society is still a tribal society (of course, the PKK is doing its utmost to destroy this tradition), so also is the local Arab society of north/north-eastern Syria a traditionalist, conservative, tribal society.
So, when you start hearing about 'commanders defecting' - then that actually means that the mass of their units is defecting, too. That's so because 'commanders' are, usually, also local tribal leaders.
Yep, mass of the society is still tribal, which also divides the (already fragmented) society into "elite tribes" and "plebs tribes" with limited social mobility. For some tribes or just for some people, the revolution in 2011 was just that pre-assad elites wanted to replace Assad elites and they are left behind (again). And this is fertile soil for ideologies - communists in YPG/SDF, islamists in Daesh.
Sorry, but I've got no idea where are you getting your info about Syria: fact is, it would be wrong not only for 2011, but even for 1918.
Except you mean north/north-eastern Syria - no, the mass of the Syrian society is not tribal. Syrian population is rather urban (no surprise: places like Damascus are some of oldest continuously inhabitated cities ever). This is also why it's so pluralist (see: there are dozens of different political and religious ideologies even with the same sect, no matter which). At least before the Assadist- and IRGC's ethnic cleansings of 2012-2018, over 70% of Syrians used to live in cities of western Syria (foremost Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Idlib, Dera'a, etc.).
'Tribal' areas are are stretching from Palmyra in eastern and northern direction, and including Dayr az-Zawr, Raqqa, Hasaka, and Qamishli.
(BTW, except in Qamishli, most of the Kurds in Syria used to live in Afrin, north-western Aleppo (Sheikh Maqsood District), and Ayn al-Arab/Kobane regions - i.e. precisely 'along the northern fringes' of the 'tribal areas'.)
...which is why Syria was never fertile soil for any kind of foreign ideologies. Not only the SSNP (something like 'Arab Nazis', still quite popular in Lebanon), but neither pan-Arabists/Nasserists, nor the Communists or the Ba'ath ever found lots of sympathies, which is why the Ba'ath eventually had to organise itself the 'Defence Companies': to obtain capability to defend its regimes from coup-attempts (from within, from the armed forces, and from abroad). Indeed, this went so far that 'even' Syrian Salafists were disgusted by the Daesh, and the latter was not only aghast about them, but declared them for something like 'citizens 2nd class'.
And the revolution of 2011 was a pure grassroots affair. So much so, not only the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (all of which was living outside the country), but all the Western (plus the Israeli) intelligence services were wondering who is in charge (and they were so desperate to find out, that several ended asking such nobodies like me for advice, apparently because I have traveled around the country as much as I did).
It was lots of 'nobodies' that were in charge of the mass protests of 2011-2012 too: 5, 10, 15. 20 from one district, 2-4 from another etc... in total about 150,000 activists, the mass of them not even religious (even those coming from Salafist families didn't know how to pray, while at lest a third of 'first wave' Free Syrian Army units wore Christian names). Precisely that is why the Assadists went all out to destroy them, physically. why they incarcerated and murdered over 100,000 of them - while releasing such like Jowlani, and then several of future 'Emirs' of the Daesh from their prisons.
...and why, from 2012 to 2017, as long as there were liberated areas nominally controlled by the insurgents, Syrian civilians created over 400 civic authorites: over 200 of these used to be led by people elected in free elections.
...which is why the Russians made precisely such authorities the primary target of their bombing campaign, back in 2015-2016: they were the proof that the Syrians can organise themselves on their own, in perfectly pluralist fashion, without Assad, and without 'converting' into gangs of blood-thirsty head-choppers.
The mass of people who used to run such authorities is already in the process of returning to Syria, or about to commence doing that. Those that didn't flee have forced 'even' the HTS into becoming as pragmatic as it is nowadays. Precisely that is why I'm as confident that they'll not let any kind of extremism to dominate.
As to the Druze, it is often stated (and is likely true) that Palestinian-Israelis prefer living in Israel to the surrounding Arab states.
After all, even as 2nd/3rd class 'citizens' at least they aren't in the middle of shooting galleries with militias going around killing each others supporters and the Israeli economy <b>was</b> in better shape than those surrounding it.
Of course the screws are tightening on non-Jewish Israelis - as the Bedouin are finding with villages being erased and forced relocation to less desirable areas.
And, Israel is fast moving into a theocracy in which secular Jews are going to be left out in the cold.
Is there any room for American or Chinese companies to come in and help rebuild infrastructure? Or is this fluid situation too fluid? Turkish companies are probably interested.
Right now, it's simply too early for either of the two to 'feel safe' in the 'Syrian working environment'. Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are there a lot earlier than the Americans, though.
Would be interested to know when it changes
Who is Zelensky groveling before this time?
https://gazeta.ua/articles/world-life/_zelenskij-doruchiv-ministram-dostaviti-prodovolstvo-do-siriyi/1202375