As long as Türkye grants them the overlfying rights - not as much as often assessed. They can still transship to Haftar-controlled part of Libya, and from there further around Africa.
Besides, lately, they are foremost transshipping via the sea. To Tunisia, for example.
Nothing. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is deeply embedded within the local population.
As they say, 'that train has left the station' - and that already in the 1980s, when nobody in the West even knew something like 'Shi'a Muslims exist'.
Well it looks like no one will like CMO for the lack of being puppies. And I wonder how soon Iran, Turkey, Israel and US would put their own foot on the ground in order for their agenda to get traction. And as for morning, it seems they (CMO) already started their SMO lol
Thanks for the update. I really look forward to the downfall of Assad. This Alawittstan they try to create is unlikely to last long. But then again somebody could always find them useful for something.
Imo the biggest question will how the US occupation will unfold from now own since it lost 2 of its public* justification points : "counter balance Assad" and "pressure the Iranian land link through Syria". Let's be honest, nobody care anymore about IS. Not even the Americans themselves. Will Trump be convinced again to stay just to "grab the oil [and the gas]" ?
I could see Israel pushing Washington to maintain the AANES (how the PKK administration likes to call itself since 2018 in a bid to BS Turkey) nonsense forever. In fact I expect the Israelis to support the Assadists remnants on the coast and encourage the Arab autocratic axis (UAE, KSA, Jordan, Egypt) to do so too.
Hopefully the PKK/YPG/Whatever will collapse by trying to swallow more lands than it can stomach. How many forces do they have ? 50K and growing ? They and the Americans used to claim a total force of 72k/75k before their assault on Raqqa. Arab majority of course.
In 2019 the Pentagon claimed an additional 25K of "Internal Security Force". The whole thing sounded like the Afghan National Army project : Pentagon genius spending so much effort to BS everybody else only to BS themselves and be the only one falling for their nonsensical lies.
As we say in France : "Plus c'est gros, plus ça passe". Meaning "The bigger the lie, the more people will believe it".
Did they drop their autonomous canton military councils organization they talked about after Peace Spring ? I have seen any of that recently. I admit I lost interest in their Matryoshka fake branding. Does it even matter ?
As I understand their fake Afrin HRE force were actually composed of hardcore Turkish/Iraqis veterans. In a developpement that will surprise absolutely no-one, that outfit disappeared as soon as Aleppo was taken. Not a single word since the 27th November. Even YPG chiller suddenly forgot about that.
Edit : Trump just made one of his angry tweet stating in capital letters the US should have nothing to do in Syria. If only he was a man of his words ...
The 'strength' of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF was 'obvious' already back during the battles of Ayn al-Arab, back in 2014-2015, and then again at Raqqa, in 2018. Their troops - the majority forcefully-recruited Arabs - simply refused to assault.
What was 'the solution' of PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-commanders? They would 'warn' the local population of air strikes, give them two days, and then guide US air strikes to smash the area - without even thinking about checking if the local population was ever informed it's supposed to evacuate. They didn't care, because these were 'worthless Arabs'.
And the CENTCOM's explanation was, ''oh, but we've warned, gave them ample time, and the civilians have evacuated'....
The way I know them, no Syrians who saw this are ever going to forget that. For them, that's the same the Assadists and the Russians were doing.
...and that's not to talk about SDF's ethnic cleansings of dozens of villages, its 'schooling system', its forceful recruitment of children, their 'trading' with forcefully-recruited Syrians with the UAE (so these go serving in Libya for Haftar, or in Russia for Putin), and many, many other things...
Trump flip-flopped on withdrawing from Syria already in his first term. He walked it back then with bravura nonsense about "but let's keep the oil." Stilicho asks a good question about the continuing pretext for occupation for the US if Assad is gone. But it is a pretext. Trump doesn't have to justify his actions but does have to return favours to certain AIPAC affiliated backers.
Yes, but he said "country", so it was written from the perspective of someone who does not see the difference.
------------
"Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad," the president-elect wrote.
He added: "Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid."
Trump concluded his Truth Social post: "In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
I saw that trump comment from the link posted by Марченко Сергей posted below. Part that stands out to me is "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” (sorry for the all caps, copy/paste). This though is not official US policy unfortunately, either current or future, only the ramblings of a pol. for his audience of like.
My take on it is though - yes and Türkiye, Russia, Iran, Israel to boot. Can’t see any of these parties really having any interest in Syria outside a crutch for their own strategic machinations.
I think that tweet is "committee-written" in that it has the on-brand "do not get involved" but also chastising Obama for not getting involved (as per tweet). Multiple people in the room were quipping as the secretary was typing.
I don't often comment because I have little to contribute. That said, your posts are usually the most informative out there and way ahead of most other commentators. A someone with a visceral loathing of Islamists/Jihadis/Fanatics, your observations about the structure and motivations of the CMO are making me hold off on judgement until we see whether their current pronouncements are just intelligent PR - disguising the same old, same old, primitive intolerance - or a profound change. Cautiously hoping for the latter.
In the end of the day ru army is same army of fanatics as others, Islamists/Jihadists and all. The root of it is that people/nations, even small ones want to be respected, to be taken into account. And when they are dismissed as cripples, some may go ways to prove otherwise. Unfortunately.
So whenever someone looks down at someone, expect troubles sooner or later.
Eh? I didn't even mention the word "Russian" anywhere. I was referring to the collective "rebels". Your assumption that I am in favour of the Assad/Russia/Iran nexus is baseless.
Why do you think it is my assumption? I just made an example. My only assumption is that we can all have negative emotions towards certain groups of people, without realising bigger picture and consequences. Including me, so I am not arguing in any way, just sharing.
Hi Tom. First of all, thank you for your updates, and your insight on the situation, whether it's in Ukraine, Gaza or Syria. You mention that Assadists will most likely retreat to the coast and from there mount a resistance to the bitter end. My questions is, who would the Alawite community support in this scenario? Is an scenario in which the alawites reach an agreement with the CMO and the war ends in that part of the country possible, even if unlikely?
Even more so because Syrian Alawites are anything else than some sort of 'monolithic bloc'. Actually, the Assad clan regularly experienced fierce competition from several rivaling clans.
For example, back in summer 2012, there was a little-known uprising by three Alawi clans. Assadists were forced to send their 76th Armoured Brigade into the Qardaha area, to fight them down. The unit went in and summarily massacred hundreds, if not thousands.
Ever since, 'they' are silent. But, I doubt the survivors have forgotten...
In that case let's hope that the alawites and the CMO manage to reach an agreement. Al-Julani is portraying himself and his people as being relatively tolerant of the different minorities in Syria, so I remain cautiously optimistic. Of course they would still have to deal with the remains of Assad's regime, and I don't see either the rebels being quick to forgiveness or the hardcore Assadists as wanting to surrender without a fight. And there's still the SNA, the kurds, Daesh and others. Difficult to see an end to the war after Assad's fall, but not impossible
But... well, he's one of perhaps two (if as many can come to my mind) 'Arab leaders' of the last 70 years, clearly demonstrating he can soberly and objectively analyse, learn lessons, re-think, and re-form.
And so, one of things he did learn was to tolerate not only different opinions, but also other religious and ethnic groups.
Considering Syria’s multiethnic nature, the most sensible outcome would be for the CMO to reach an agreement with the Alawites in the West, Kurds in the East, and other minorities scattered across the country to implement a federal or consociational system—provided external powers allow it. My hope is that this doesn’t become yet another case study of how Israeli, Iranian, Turkish, US, or Russian external pressure royally fucks up the democratic institution-building process. But yes, we can only be cautiously optimistic.
He system created partially to cement the French domination, partially because the French 3rd Republic was not just a regular colonial power but also a highly sectarian one.
The problem with this sort of model ethnic/sectarian system is it would precisely open the door to foreign influences.
Arguably it already happened during this war. Iran found its way through the Alawis and Shias. Russia through the Alawis and the Christians. The US through "The Kurds" (doom quotes since contrary to the others, it did not really find its support with actual Syrians natives, ironically the handful of small Syrian Kurds political actors had to place their hope to TR to free their homeland of the PKK). To a lesser extent and in a far less successful manner, Turkey with the Turkmens.
And as Lebanon & Iraq showed, it paves the way for highly corrupt oligarchy who exacerbates the sectarian fault lines to divert their powerbase from their own misgovernance. Assad himself has done it up to the systemic collapse we are witnessing.
I wonder if there’s any scenario where Syria could act as a buffer state for all the surrounding regional powers, with the actors incentivized to maintain rather than destabilize the newly established status quo.
Someone else has probably already asked this question, but am I right in assuming that the whole thing is a disaster for Hezbollah? None of the rebel groups are friendly to Hezbollah, are they? If Assad falls, that would mean that Iran would no longer be able to supply Hezbollah by land. That would be a disaster for them, wouldn't it?
Despite all the suffering in Syria, I have to smile when I think that what we have seen in recent days is exactly the "three-day war" that Putin dreamed of in Ukraine 😂
How all of this affect Russian operations in Africa?
As long as Türkye grants them the overlfying rights - not as much as often assessed. They can still transship to Haftar-controlled part of Libya, and from there further around Africa.
Besides, lately, they are foremost transshipping via the sea. To Tunisia, for example.
Invoque a ccoperpedia, i have a geografical problem. How the russian wraships can retourn to russia? Bosforoust??
Is the finish for russian mediterranean fleet?
Inremenbert a book from a soviet almirant about his importance for russian/soviet power
Conglatulations Tom. You are at least 5 days ahead of the NYT and WAPO coverage. They should just fire their Middle East staffs and pay you!
Tom, buen dia, que pasara con Hezbolla en Libano, si pierde todo contacto terrestre con Iran?
Nothing. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is deeply embedded within the local population.
As they say, 'that train has left the station' - and that already in the 1980s, when nobody in the West even knew something like 'Shi'a Muslims exist'.
Well it looks like no one will like CMO for the lack of being puppies. And I wonder how soon Iran, Turkey, Israel and US would put their own foot on the ground in order for their agenda to get traction. And as for morning, it seems they (CMO) already started their SMO lol
So let see now a masterclass in SMOs https://x.com/NEDAAPOST/status/1865367049750335840
Informative, immediate, accurate updates unavailable anywhere else. Thank you for this, and for the same powerful posts about Ukraine.
Second that.
I second that second.
Thanks for the update. I really look forward to the downfall of Assad. This Alawittstan they try to create is unlikely to last long. But then again somebody could always find them useful for something.
Regardless of the outcome, this is how a 10 day SMO looks like. Hello Kremlin?
Ouch! Take that Putin, you fucking amateur!
Imo the biggest question will how the US occupation will unfold from now own since it lost 2 of its public* justification points : "counter balance Assad" and "pressure the Iranian land link through Syria". Let's be honest, nobody care anymore about IS. Not even the Americans themselves. Will Trump be convinced again to stay just to "grab the oil [and the gas]" ?
I could see Israel pushing Washington to maintain the AANES (how the PKK administration likes to call itself since 2018 in a bid to BS Turkey) nonsense forever. In fact I expect the Israelis to support the Assadists remnants on the coast and encourage the Arab autocratic axis (UAE, KSA, Jordan, Egypt) to do so too.
Hopefully the PKK/YPG/Whatever will collapse by trying to swallow more lands than it can stomach. How many forces do they have ? 50K and growing ? They and the Americans used to claim a total force of 72k/75k before their assault on Raqqa. Arab majority of course.
In 2019 the Pentagon claimed an additional 25K of "Internal Security Force". The whole thing sounded like the Afghan National Army project : Pentagon genius spending so much effort to BS everybody else only to BS themselves and be the only one falling for their nonsensical lies.
As we say in France : "Plus c'est gros, plus ça passe". Meaning "The bigger the lie, the more people will believe it".
Did they drop their autonomous canton military councils organization they talked about after Peace Spring ? I have seen any of that recently. I admit I lost interest in their Matryoshka fake branding. Does it even matter ?
As I understand their fake Afrin HRE force were actually composed of hardcore Turkish/Iraqis veterans. In a developpement that will surprise absolutely no-one, that outfit disappeared as soon as Aleppo was taken. Not a single word since the 27th November. Even YPG chiller suddenly forgot about that.
Edit : Trump just made one of his angry tweet stating in capital letters the US should have nothing to do in Syria. If only he was a man of his words ...
The 'strength' of the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF was 'obvious' already back during the battles of Ayn al-Arab, back in 2014-2015, and then again at Raqqa, in 2018. Their troops - the majority forcefully-recruited Arabs - simply refused to assault.
What was 'the solution' of PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF-commanders? They would 'warn' the local population of air strikes, give them two days, and then guide US air strikes to smash the area - without even thinking about checking if the local population was ever informed it's supposed to evacuate. They didn't care, because these were 'worthless Arabs'.
And the CENTCOM's explanation was, ''oh, but we've warned, gave them ample time, and the civilians have evacuated'....
The way I know them, no Syrians who saw this are ever going to forget that. For them, that's the same the Assadists and the Russians were doing.
...and that's not to talk about SDF's ethnic cleansings of dozens of villages, its 'schooling system', its forceful recruitment of children, their 'trading' with forcefully-recruited Syrians with the UAE (so these go serving in Libya for Haftar, or in Russia for Putin), and many, many other things...
Trump also said Syria is a country "Russia has protected for years". Was that Tulsi Gabbard input?
Trump flip-flopped on withdrawing from Syria already in his first term. He walked it back then with bravura nonsense about "but let's keep the oil." Stilicho asks a good question about the continuing pretext for occupation for the US if Assad is gone. But it is a pretext. Trump doesn't have to justify his actions but does have to return favours to certain AIPAC affiliated backers.
If he meant Assad' state, that is the truth. Russia saved it from military defeat in 2015 and gave it an additional decade.
Yes, but he said "country", so it was written from the perspective of someone who does not see the difference.
------------
"Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad," the president-elect wrote.
He added: "Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid."
Trump concluded his Truth Social post: "In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
I saw that trump comment from the link posted by Марченко Сергей posted below. Part that stands out to me is "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” (sorry for the all caps, copy/paste). This though is not official US policy unfortunately, either current or future, only the ramblings of a pol. for his audience of like.
My take on it is though - yes and Türkiye, Russia, Iran, Israel to boot. Can’t see any of these parties really having any interest in Syria outside a crutch for their own strategic machinations.
I think that tweet is "committee-written" in that it has the on-brand "do not get involved" but also chastising Obama for not getting involved (as per tweet). Multiple people in the room were quipping as the secretary was typing.
I don’t disagree. What is meant by the word “them” is anyone guess as in context of the sentence, it could imply Bashar al-Assad.
I don't often comment because I have little to contribute. That said, your posts are usually the most informative out there and way ahead of most other commentators. A someone with a visceral loathing of Islamists/Jihadis/Fanatics, your observations about the structure and motivations of the CMO are making me hold off on judgement until we see whether their current pronouncements are just intelligent PR - disguising the same old, same old, primitive intolerance - or a profound change. Cautiously hoping for the latter.
In the end of the day ru army is same army of fanatics as others, Islamists/Jihadists and all. The root of it is that people/nations, even small ones want to be respected, to be taken into account. And when they are dismissed as cripples, some may go ways to prove otherwise. Unfortunately.
So whenever someone looks down at someone, expect troubles sooner or later.
Eh? I didn't even mention the word "Russian" anywhere. I was referring to the collective "rebels". Your assumption that I am in favour of the Assad/Russia/Iran nexus is baseless.
Why do you think it is my assumption? I just made an example. My only assumption is that we can all have negative emotions towards certain groups of people, without realising bigger picture and consequences. Including me, so I am not arguing in any way, just sharing.
Welcome to commenting!
Looks like we are going to find out in the not too distant future
Hi Tom. First of all, thank you for your updates, and your insight on the situation, whether it's in Ukraine, Gaza or Syria. You mention that Assadists will most likely retreat to the coast and from there mount a resistance to the bitter end. My questions is, who would the Alawite community support in this scenario? Is an scenario in which the alawites reach an agreement with the CMO and the war ends in that part of the country possible, even if unlikely?
Good question...
Even more so because Syrian Alawites are anything else than some sort of 'monolithic bloc'. Actually, the Assad clan regularly experienced fierce competition from several rivaling clans.
For example, back in summer 2012, there was a little-known uprising by three Alawi clans. Assadists were forced to send their 76th Armoured Brigade into the Qardaha area, to fight them down. The unit went in and summarily massacred hundreds, if not thousands.
Ever since, 'they' are silent. But, I doubt the survivors have forgotten...
In that case let's hope that the alawites and the CMO manage to reach an agreement. Al-Julani is portraying himself and his people as being relatively tolerant of the different minorities in Syria, so I remain cautiously optimistic. Of course they would still have to deal with the remains of Assad's regime, and I don't see either the rebels being quick to forgiveness or the hardcore Assadists as wanting to surrender without a fight. And there's still the SNA, the kurds, Daesh and others. Difficult to see an end to the war after Assad's fall, but not impossible
I'm no fan of Jowlani.
But... well, he's one of perhaps two (if as many can come to my mind) 'Arab leaders' of the last 70 years, clearly demonstrating he can soberly and objectively analyse, learn lessons, re-think, and re-form.
And so, one of things he did learn was to tolerate not only different opinions, but also other religious and ethnic groups.
Who's the other one?
Gamal Abdel Nasser.
Hope, Jowlani is not going to end the same way.
Jowlani's father was a Nasserist. The son is from the opposite band.
"he can soberly and objectively analyse, learn lessons, re-think, and re-form." After 5 years in US prisons one can change his views dramatically....
Considering Syria’s multiethnic nature, the most sensible outcome would be for the CMO to reach an agreement with the Alawites in the West, Kurds in the East, and other minorities scattered across the country to implement a federal or consociational system—provided external powers allow it. My hope is that this doesn’t become yet another case study of how Israeli, Iranian, Turkish, US, or Russian external pressure royally fucks up the democratic institution-building process. But yes, we can only be cautiously optimistic.
Sounds much like the "confessional" system the French tried to install in Lebanon and which fell to bits in the 1980s.
He system created partially to cement the French domination, partially because the French 3rd Republic was not just a regular colonial power but also a highly sectarian one.
The problem with this sort of model ethnic/sectarian system is it would precisely open the door to foreign influences.
Arguably it already happened during this war. Iran found its way through the Alawis and Shias. Russia through the Alawis and the Christians. The US through "The Kurds" (doom quotes since contrary to the others, it did not really find its support with actual Syrians natives, ironically the handful of small Syrian Kurds political actors had to place their hope to TR to free their homeland of the PKK). To a lesser extent and in a far less successful manner, Turkey with the Turkmens.
And as Lebanon & Iraq showed, it paves the way for highly corrupt oligarchy who exacerbates the sectarian fault lines to divert their powerbase from their own misgovernance. Assad himself has done it up to the systemic collapse we are witnessing.
I wonder if there’s any scenario where Syria could act as a buffer state for all the surrounding regional powers, with the actors incentivized to maintain rather than destabilize the newly established status quo.
If US, Turkey, Israel, etc all are opposed to CMO, it will be a far tougher time ahead for them.
Thank you for the frequent and high-quality updates.
Trump's comment on recent events in Syria:
https://24tv.ua/siriya-viyna-tramp-prokomentuvav-podiyi-nastupom-opozitsiyi-skazav_n2702377
Thank you (as always) Tom for incisive and in depth analysis of an otherwise frankly confusing situation!
Someone else has probably already asked this question, but am I right in assuming that the whole thing is a disaster for Hezbollah? None of the rebel groups are friendly to Hezbollah, are they? If Assad falls, that would mean that Iran would no longer be able to supply Hezbollah by land. That would be a disaster for them, wouldn't it?
Despite all the suffering in Syria, I have to smile when I think that what we have seen in recent days is exactly the "three-day war" that Putin dreamed of in Ukraine 😂
Yesno. The IRGC is going to continue supporting Hezbollah - per aircraft and per ship.
And yes... that is: Syrians hate Hezbollah to their bones.