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Oct 6, 2023
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Nick Fotis's avatar

Heavy droughts, made worse by population pressure (I think), and a bad dispute with Turkey about the waters in Mesopotamia.

I would think that the huge rise in population in Syria in recent decades was a contributing factor (approximately 40% growth per decade for many decades)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Syria

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

This is a widespread theory, distributed by different of Syria Experten - usually influenced by Assadists paying multiple PR-agencies in the West to present them in good light (here an article in Der Spiegel, from the times there was still serious journalism in that magazine:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/syrien-assad-liess-image-in-medien-in-usa-mit-pr-agentur-aufpolieren-a-838356.html).

See: 'it was something else, just not the Assadist regime'...

Now, of course, demography and economy are playing a crucial role. Especially considering how many refugees from Iraq fled to Syria in 2003-2004, and how many from Lebanon in 2006 (especially the Israeli onslaught on Lebanon in 2006 has badly damaged the Syrian economy - alone because there were no tourists in the country for the next two years).

However, such theories are unsubstantiated simply because of the fact that they're based on dubious guessing about the size of Syrian population, or the fact they're leaving out the part about who is responsible for the state of the Syrian economy.

The Syrian economy as of 2011 was under Assadist control for 40 years already. And it was in the state of an economic crisis for all of these 40 years....indeed, even before that (duringthe times of the 'pure Ba'ath' regime, by Jadid & Co KG GesmbH AG). It hasn't seen a single 'good year' since the Ba'ath took over, in 1963, after 'two happy years' under civilian government.

Thus, it's not like it was 'oh my bad, there was a drought and economic crisis', but 'Assadists have screwed up the country and looted it for 40 years', while doing NOTHING for its future - and that already well before the 'drought and economic crisis of 2008-2011'.

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Oct 7, 2023
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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Be sure: if you would be getting telephone calls in the middle of night, threatening your family and yourself... you would be very supportive for Assad, too.

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Oct 6, 2023
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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Do I have to make it even more complex? ;-)

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Nick Fotis's avatar

I was under the impression that Turkey was the receiver of it?

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Of oil extracted in north-eastern Syria?

Nope. The PKK is selling it to Israel.

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Holster's avatar

wow 🫣... unvorstellbar für einen unbeteiligten Otto-Normal bzw. für einen "der die Materie nicht kennt"

Danke Tom🤜🤛

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Leider kann nicht sagen, 'gern geschehen'.... 'Syrien', für mich = 'nur Schmerz'....

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Tom's avatar

Common thought here in the US is that Syria was just like Afghanistan, mud huts and primitive living. The Ukraine war is striking to westerners because Ukraine is very much like the rest of Europe, well developed and modern. I still have a hard time with people excusing wars in "primitive" areas, but aghast at war in "civilized" areas.

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Roland Davis's avatar

What a mess

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Oh, this is just the 'bare basics'.

There are so many absurd stories in this 'war'...

The one I like very much is when Bulgarian, Serbian etc. press began complaining about USA buying arms from Bulgaria, Serbia etc. - and 'delivering our arms to terrorists'.

Absurdly: they were right.

Problem: they thought the USA would be delivering arms to terrorists of the Jabhat an-Nusra, former affiliate of al-Qaeda, but of Syrian origin and led by jerks extremised in Assadist prisons of the period 2008-2011.... though who meanwhile have distanced themselves from the AQ.

Actually, the USA were all the time buying arms from Bulgaria, Serbia etc. - for the PKK-terrorists...

(BTW, while in Assadist prisons, the 'glorious' jihadists that later created the Nusra - nowadays HTS - were lifting underwear from several friends of mine... all were released in the course of Assadist 'amnesty for political prisoners', in June 2011.... foremost with the aim to tarnish the reputation of genuine Syrian protesters and officers that created the FsyA. See: since having none, Assad created himself an 'extremist Islamist opposition'.... my friends went on fighting for FSyA, until the DIA turned their comms off, so that the HTS could come at night and slaughter them.... so, had to flee to Turkey... once there, they've found themselves on receiving end of several bombing attacks by the Daesh....until the MIT - the Turkish intel service - told them, it's better for them to flee to the EU....)

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Tomas Enerdal's avatar

Sweden has sharpened its anti-terrorist laws considerably. In most ways supporting a terrorist organisation (like PKK) is against the law. But Sweden has also very old laws allowing anyone to freely express their oppinion. Even if that is sympathy with PKK.

Now, it may seem that if sympathy for PKK is expressed in Sweden, Sweden becomes a terrorist country in mr Erdogans eyes. It may look like he does not understand the idea of free opinion or free speach..

This mr Erdogan uses as much as he can,

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Tomas Enerdal's avatar

... either for domestic use, or to wring more F-16 from the US.

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Joshu's Dog's avatar

Indeed. The F-16s which "aren't gamechangers" in a peer conflict. Ironic. Or is it?

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Stilicho's avatar

This is BS

Try to "freely express" some IS like speech while claiming to not be IS just like the totally not PKK can hold PKK like speech and see how you end up.

This is tolerated, if not supported, simply because the former is identified as "The Muslims" while the latter "The Kurds" are (wrongly) identified as *Not Muslims. It is just the regular westerner racism/sectarism boosted by the so called "War on Terror".

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

....yes, Tomas: all the 'anti-terrorist laws' in the EU/NATO have been 'sharpened to the teeth'....

So much so, neither the Swedish nor the Austrian security services can tell a Salafist from Wahhabist, and the PKK is 'simply non-existent here'.... :rolleyes:

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D4vE_48's avatar

Aren't you asking a bit much of a country, where Neonazis with Hitler and SS tattoos openly displaying them in public baths, will only be persecuted by the police after a german tourist calls them? And then they couldn't find him?

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Blasphemy! Can't say such things about the lovely Swedes - in the public...

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Sreto's avatar

Thank you, this topic is very complicated and your info gives a basic info. Not to long but enough for amateurs. Maybe you can sometimes write also points between 51 and 52. It is a hard to get this info because most of mainstream media is corrupted or doesn't have such infos and on alternative side it is the same if not worst.

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Edu Lopez's avatar

I can’t help myself if don’t recommend you Tom books on Syrian Civil War and “Russia’s Poker game”, both in Helion Middle East@War series. Deeply interesting and informative about so a convoluted conflict.

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Ivan's avatar

Damn, I miss the simpler, older times. When there could be the "Union for Liberation of Ruritania" supported by the USA and the "Ruritanian Liberation Union" supported by the USSR (both of them would be supported by Israel and/or China). Now we have eternal fractal 6D proxy warfare.

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Marmot's avatar

The Tale of Turkey and the Patriots from the first hand: https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/the-tale-of-turkey-and-the-patriots/

TLDR; Turkey could get Patriots, if they really wanted to have them.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

...but yes, sure: Oblablah and Dump were ah-so-horny about selling them Patriots, that the latter cancelled their involvement in F-35 - although they've paid billions for it...

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Stilicho's avatar

Any idea who did yesterday drone strike on Assadists and how ? It seems a tad too big for HTS.

I have seen some NAFO folks (who are nearly all PKK loving thus supporting Russia in Syria) hint at their beloved Budanov. Yet the only time Ukrainian possible involvement in Syria was discussed in the media months ago, the Ukrainians were said intending to work with YPG/PKK and thus Assad and ... Russia. They just seems as confused as the Americans. Without doubt too much self inflicted War on Terror propaganda.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Sadly, no idea - yet.

Since you ask, would recommend following this Twitter-account: if anybody might know soon, it's him.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq

....and Ukrainians are intending to work with the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF...?

Oh dear.... shall I guess what a brilliant mind brought them to that idea....?

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Stilicho's avatar

I follow QalaatAlMudiq since 2015 but thanks :)

Yeah such a stupid idea. The idea was to work with YPG/PKK to target Russians in Syria. Apparently, the Ukrainians had trouble catching up that after the US, Russia is the primary supporter of the PKK and the only reason why YPG/PKK can still operate West of the Euphrates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/

Tbh I am becoming ever more circumspect about Budanov and the Ukrainian intelligence services since you brought up how they messed up their core mission (intelligence) prior to the Ukrainian southern offensive. That is beyond the Kherson affair. For sure they are aggressive, daring and all, but sometimes they seem completely clueless or un-interested about collecting intelligence. Quite the irony for "intelligence" services.

Btw in case this interest you. Allegedly footage of Ukrainians operating in Sudan alongside Sudanese Armed Forces against RSF and Wagner has emerged. Not sure wtf they are doing there.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1710241167751671844?s=20

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Denys's avatar

Likely were hired to hunt Wagner which lost several airplanes there a couple of weeks ago.

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Stilicho's avatar

It was a manner of speech. I get this is all about the "hunting invaders no matter where they are" speeches. But dont they have already their hands full in Ukraine proper ? It sounds a bit like an ego project more than a sensible action. But that's just my two cents.

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Denys's avatar

Undefended Russian military planes in Africa are much easier to down than those in Ukraine. It's the same pool of planes, and they will need to remove planes from Ukraine to use in Africa now.

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Spike's avatar

Thank you for your articel Tom. It made me understand the backgrounds of the "13 hours" so much better, and yes I know that was about Bengazhi which is in Lybia.

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Marmot's avatar

FSyA was an unsuccessful try to unite people and forces which didn't want to be united. They would split apart even with NATO, Turkey (and whole universe) support anyway. U.S.A., NATO influence on local events is overestimated often.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Yeah. No way for bribes to be of any use in a piss-poor country...

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Marmot's avatar

Bribes were not the main reason. Bribes may make problem worse, but they do not tear a coalition apart if people do not want to. Russia has been (and still is) spending a lot in bribes in a piss-poor country Ukraine ... and what?

I've met a western analyst in 2006 who told me Syria (and Iran, too) are like powder kegs - just a proper spark and they explode in civil wars. (Yes, there were western analysts before 2011 who predicted that.) The problem is that many of opposition leaders want to replace Assad by themself, they do not want to share power with others. And if they cannot rule whole country, they want to rule at least a part of it. (Similarly for the Russian opposition, unfortunately.)

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Denys's avatar

1) The Russian bribes enabled the blitz offensive in the South of Ukraine.

2) Ukraine was not *that* poor, with average salary around $400/mo and pensions around $100/mo.

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Marmot's avatar

1) Comparing to Syria is better example DPR and LPR in 2014 - Pushilin & co. got bribes from Russia for that. But the bribes were not the only reason, they wanted to grab the the power for themself in the first place.

2) Comparing to Syria? GDP per capita Ukraine in 2010: $3,078 in 2021: $4,863. Syria in 2010: $11,305. Yes, I know about many problems of such measures, just saying that Syria was not so poor (and Ukraine is not so not-poor).

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Simonjakob's avatar

War is like business, it will not work without finance and a$$ load of money , people tend to seek high paying jobs for successful companies in booming sectors , not many would work for free and actually expend their personal savings to build a company from zero in a none profit charities sector , and certainly no one would do that when there are ten other companies with an astronomical bank accounts offer employment under the only condition of strictly following the company policy.

You can cry all day and night that those other companies are unethical and acts against our common interest and we should create our own company and make our own policies but no one cares.

You'd be surprised how many Ukrainians factions would rise tommorow if the west cuts off all financial and military support all of sudden and you'd be surprised how many of them would pressure for a deal with Putin.

To have clear picture about what is going on Syria , imagine if Western military and financial support went to NeoNazis , Gangsters of the pro-Russian Ukrainian Oligarchs and L-DPR militias on the eve of the Russian invasiom and you'll get the idea.

It is really fortunate that Ukraine does not have border with Israel

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Denys's avatar

If the support is cut off, there'd be no time for the factions to rise.

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Marmot's avatar

LPR and DPR had money & arms form Russia and almost lost - Russia has to sent their army to "save" these separatists. Russia bribed other people from other parts of Ukraine - and that failed. E.g. Putin has tried to stir Rusyns to split from Ukraine, but has failed. Many Russian speaking UA citizens fight for UA.

So, I dare to say Ukraine today is not like Syria. (But Ukraine let's say 100 years ago - well that's another story, read Timothy Snyder's Bloodlands.)

Local situation is underestimated and influence from outside overestimated often. That mistake has been made from Putin in regards of Ukraine, U.S.A in regards of Iraq and Afganistan ... and many other examples in history.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

....gosh, I must've had discussions of this kind only some 10,451 times.... I should start to charge whenever somebody starts it again....

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Edu Lopez's avatar

A very interesting pace change for your updates, Tom. Hope everybody around here are as interested in Syria’s conflict as myself.

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Edu Lopez's avatar

BTW, Clever & Smart are the creations of (sadly) recently pass away Francisco Ibáñez, a Spanish comic master. Know here as “Mortadelo y Filemón”, they‘re (terrific) spies at the TIA; just like real agents at real agencies can be...

A funny reading, I only may suggest it to everybody.

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Joshu's Dog's avatar

Infinitely better reporting than the mainstream media, but I can't help but think there is more to the Pentagon "Prussian"/primitive vs State Department "Arabist" story, than Islamophobia vs "right to protect" thinking. I've heard talk of a pipeline deal with Assad that fell through, Israel's geopolitical concept of an independent Kurdistan (and what Israel wants, many in Washington probably want).. and as for the Qatari/Saudi rivalry, that's immensely opaque. Then later you've got splits in the US establishment over the JCPOA, the MBS faction in the House of Saud/"Khashoggi" and the Saudi-Israel rapprochement. Just an immense whirling geopolitical kaleidoscope of factors with Syria getting ravaged in the middle like Germany in the 30 Years War.

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Carlos Del Valle's avatar

Thanks so much for that , Tom. I had tried (half-heartedly) so many times to read and understand the Syrian War and had never had any success. This is the first time that I feel informed about what actually happened for the conflict to arrive at such a state of affairs.

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Peter's avatar

Could You write another one about Libya? That one is pretty nasty as well.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

<== evil grin.... ;-)

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