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October 6, 2023
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Do I have to make it even more complex? ;-)

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I was under the impression that Turkey was the receiver of it?

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Of oil extracted in north-eastern Syria?

Nope. The PKK is selling it to Israel.

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wow 🫣... unvorstellbar für einen unbeteiligten Otto-Normal bzw. für einen "der die Materie nicht kennt"

Danke Tom🤜🤛

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Leider kann nicht sagen, 'gern geschehen'.... 'Syrien', für mich = 'nur Schmerz'....

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Common thought here in the US is that Syria was just like Afghanistan, mud huts and primitive living. The Ukraine war is striking to westerners because Ukraine is very much like the rest of Europe, well developed and modern. I still have a hard time with people excusing wars in "primitive" areas, but aghast at war in "civilized" areas.

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What a mess

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Oh, this is just the 'bare basics'.

There are so many absurd stories in this 'war'...

The one I like very much is when Bulgarian, Serbian etc. press began complaining about USA buying arms from Bulgaria, Serbia etc. - and 'delivering our arms to terrorists'.

Absurdly: they were right.

Problem: they thought the USA would be delivering arms to terrorists of the Jabhat an-Nusra, former affiliate of al-Qaeda, but of Syrian origin and led by jerks extremised in Assadist prisons of the period 2008-2011.... though who meanwhile have distanced themselves from the AQ.

Actually, the USA were all the time buying arms from Bulgaria, Serbia etc. - for the PKK-terrorists...

(BTW, while in Assadist prisons, the 'glorious' jihadists that later created the Nusra - nowadays HTS - were lifting underwear from several friends of mine... all were released in the course of Assadist 'amnesty for political prisoners', in June 2011.... foremost with the aim to tarnish the reputation of genuine Syrian protesters and officers that created the FsyA. See: since having none, Assad created himself an 'extremist Islamist opposition'.... my friends went on fighting for FSyA, until the DIA turned their comms off, so that the HTS could come at night and slaughter them.... so, had to flee to Turkey... once there, they've found themselves on receiving end of several bombing attacks by the Daesh....until the MIT - the Turkish intel service - told them, it's better for them to flee to the EU....)

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Sweden has sharpened its anti-terrorist laws considerably. In most ways supporting a terrorist organisation (like PKK) is against the law. But Sweden has also very old laws allowing anyone to freely express their oppinion. Even if that is sympathy with PKK.

Now, it may seem that if sympathy for PKK is expressed in Sweden, Sweden becomes a terrorist country in mr Erdogans eyes. It may look like he does not understand the idea of free opinion or free speach..

This mr Erdogan uses as much as he can,

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... either for domestic use, or to wring more F-16 from the US.

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Indeed. The F-16s which "aren't gamechangers" in a peer conflict. Ironic. Or is it?

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This is BS

Try to "freely express" some IS like speech while claiming to not be IS just like the totally not PKK can hold PKK like speech and see how you end up.

This is tolerated, if not supported, simply because the former is identified as "The Muslims" while the latter "The Kurds" are (wrongly) identified as *Not Muslims. It is just the regular westerner racism/sectarism boosted by the so called "War on Terror".

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....yes, Tomas: all the 'anti-terrorist laws' in the EU/NATO have been 'sharpened to the teeth'....

So much so, neither the Swedish nor the Austrian security services can tell a Salafist from Wahhabist, and the PKK is 'simply non-existent here'.... :rolleyes:

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Aren't you asking a bit much of a country, where Neonazis with Hitler and SS tattoos openly displaying them in public baths, will only be persecuted by the police after a german tourist calls them? And then they couldn't find him?

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Blasphemy! Can't say such things about the lovely Swedes - in the public...

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Thank you, this topic is very complicated and your info gives a basic info. Not to long but enough for amateurs. Maybe you can sometimes write also points between 51 and 52. It is a hard to get this info because most of mainstream media is corrupted or doesn't have such infos and on alternative side it is the same if not worst.

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I can’t help myself if don’t recommend you Tom books on Syrian Civil War and “Russia’s Poker game”, both in Helion Middle East@War series. Deeply interesting and informative about so a convoluted conflict.

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Damn, I miss the simpler, older times. When there could be the "Union for Liberation of Ruritania" supported by the USA and the "Ruritanian Liberation Union" supported by the USSR (both of them would be supported by Israel and/or China). Now we have eternal fractal 6D proxy warfare.

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The Tale of Turkey and the Patriots from the first hand: https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/the-tale-of-turkey-and-the-patriots/

TLDR; Turkey could get Patriots, if they really wanted to have them.

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...but yes, sure: Oblablah and Dump were ah-so-horny about selling them Patriots, that the latter cancelled their involvement in F-35 - although they've paid billions for it...

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Any idea who did yesterday drone strike on Assadists and how ? It seems a tad too big for HTS.

I have seen some NAFO folks (who are nearly all PKK loving thus supporting Russia in Syria) hint at their beloved Budanov. Yet the only time Ukrainian possible involvement in Syria was discussed in the media months ago, the Ukrainians were said intending to work with YPG/PKK and thus Assad and ... Russia. They just seems as confused as the Americans. Without doubt too much self inflicted War on Terror propaganda.

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Sadly, no idea - yet.

Since you ask, would recommend following this Twitter-account: if anybody might know soon, it's him.

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq

....and Ukrainians are intending to work with the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF...?

Oh dear.... shall I guess what a brilliant mind brought them to that idea....?

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I follow QalaatAlMudiq since 2015 but thanks :)

Yeah such a stupid idea. The idea was to work with YPG/PKK to target Russians in Syria. Apparently, the Ukrainians had trouble catching up that after the US, Russia is the primary supporter of the PKK and the only reason why YPG/PKK can still operate West of the Euphrates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/

Tbh I am becoming ever more circumspect about Budanov and the Ukrainian intelligence services since you brought up how they messed up their core mission (intelligence) prior to the Ukrainian southern offensive. That is beyond the Kherson affair. For sure they are aggressive, daring and all, but sometimes they seem completely clueless or un-interested about collecting intelligence. Quite the irony for "intelligence" services.

Btw in case this interest you. Allegedly footage of Ukrainians operating in Sudan alongside Sudanese Armed Forces against RSF and Wagner has emerged. Not sure wtf they are doing there.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1710241167751671844?s=20

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Likely were hired to hunt Wagner which lost several airplanes there a couple of weeks ago.

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It was a manner of speech. I get this is all about the "hunting invaders no matter where they are" speeches. But dont they have already their hands full in Ukraine proper ? It sounds a bit like an ego project more than a sensible action. But that's just my two cents.

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Undefended Russian military planes in Africa are much easier to down than those in Ukraine. It's the same pool of planes, and they will need to remove planes from Ukraine to use in Africa now.

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Thank you for your articel Tom. It made me understand the backgrounds of the "13 hours" so much better, and yes I know that was about Bengazhi which is in Lybia.

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FSyA was an unsuccessful try to unite people and forces which didn't want to be united. They would split apart even with NATO, Turkey (and whole universe) support anyway. U.S.A., NATO influence on local events is overestimated often.

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Yeah. No way for bribes to be of any use in a piss-poor country...

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Bribes were not the main reason. Bribes may make problem worse, but they do not tear a coalition apart if people do not want to. Russia has been (and still is) spending a lot in bribes in a piss-poor country Ukraine ... and what?

I've met a western analyst in 2006 who told me Syria (and Iran, too) are like powder kegs - just a proper spark and they explode in civil wars. (Yes, there were western analysts before 2011 who predicted that.) The problem is that many of opposition leaders want to replace Assad by themself, they do not want to share power with others. And if they cannot rule whole country, they want to rule at least a part of it. (Similarly for the Russian opposition, unfortunately.)

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1) The Russian bribes enabled the blitz offensive in the South of Ukraine.

2) Ukraine was not *that* poor, with average salary around $400/mo and pensions around $100/mo.

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1) Comparing to Syria is better example DPR and LPR in 2014 - Pushilin & co. got bribes from Russia for that. But the bribes were not the only reason, they wanted to grab the the power for themself in the first place.

2) Comparing to Syria? GDP per capita Ukraine in 2010: $3,078 in 2021: $4,863. Syria in 2010: $11,305. Yes, I know about many problems of such measures, just saying that Syria was not so poor (and Ukraine is not so not-poor).

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War is like business, it will not work without finance and a$$ load of money , people tend to seek high paying jobs for successful companies in booming sectors , not many would work for free and actually expend their personal savings to build a company from zero in a none profit charities sector , and certainly no one would do that when there are ten other companies with an astronomical bank accounts offer employment under the only condition of strictly following the company policy.

You can cry all day and night that those other companies are unethical and acts against our common interest and we should create our own company and make our own policies but no one cares.

You'd be surprised how many Ukrainians factions would rise tommorow if the west cuts off all financial and military support all of sudden and you'd be surprised how many of them would pressure for a deal with Putin.

To have clear picture about what is going on Syria , imagine if Western military and financial support went to NeoNazis , Gangsters of the pro-Russian Ukrainian Oligarchs and L-DPR militias on the eve of the Russian invasiom and you'll get the idea.

It is really fortunate that Ukraine does not have border with Israel

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If the support is cut off, there'd be no time for the factions to rise.

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LPR and DPR had money & arms form Russia and almost lost - Russia has to sent their army to "save" these separatists. Russia bribed other people from other parts of Ukraine - and that failed. E.g. Putin has tried to stir Rusyns to split from Ukraine, but has failed. Many Russian speaking UA citizens fight for UA.

So, I dare to say Ukraine today is not like Syria. (But Ukraine let's say 100 years ago - well that's another story, read Timothy Snyder's Bloodlands.)

Local situation is underestimated and influence from outside overestimated often. That mistake has been made from Putin in regards of Ukraine, U.S.A in regards of Iraq and Afganistan ... and many other examples in history.

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....gosh, I must've had discussions of this kind only some 10,451 times.... I should start to charge whenever somebody starts it again....

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A very interesting pace change for your updates, Tom. Hope everybody around here are as interested in Syria’s conflict as myself.

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BTW, Clever & Smart are the creations of (sadly) recently pass away Francisco Ibáñez, a Spanish comic master. Know here as “Mortadelo y Filemón”, they‘re (terrific) spies at the TIA; just like real agents at real agencies can be...

A funny reading, I only may suggest it to everybody.

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Infinitely better reporting than the mainstream media, but I can't help but think there is more to the Pentagon "Prussian"/primitive vs State Department "Arabist" story, than Islamophobia vs "right to protect" thinking. I've heard talk of a pipeline deal with Assad that fell through, Israel's geopolitical concept of an independent Kurdistan (and what Israel wants, many in Washington probably want).. and as for the Qatari/Saudi rivalry, that's immensely opaque. Then later you've got splits in the US establishment over the JCPOA, the MBS faction in the House of Saud/"Khashoggi" and the Saudi-Israel rapprochement. Just an immense whirling geopolitical kaleidoscope of factors with Syria getting ravaged in the middle like Germany in the 30 Years War.

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Thanks so much for that , Tom. I had tried (half-heartedly) so many times to read and understand the Syrian War and had never had any success. This is the first time that I feel informed about what actually happened for the conflict to arrive at such a state of affairs.

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Could You write another one about Libya? That one is pretty nasty as well.

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<== evil grin.... ;-)

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Thank you so much for this, I didn't expect to learn so much about this conflict like you've presented. I now completely get Turkey's position because I had been a strong supporter of the PKK thinking its a genuine representation of the Kurds. Personally I would welcome more such writings about the Syrian conflict. This sentence here alone you wrote deserves you endless awards because my people the Baganda have faced it first hand in Uganda. "and because it’s a centuries-old tradition of the Western powers to (mis)use different local ‘war-like’ minorities in the Middle East (and elsewhere) to fight against local majorities…" The West arming minorities to kill majorities in Africa(eg arming minority maoist groups against the Western leaning Baganda people in Uganda is one such example as well as creating armed Sudanic-Nilotic minorities to subjugate the larger Bantu populations in East Africa) I knew of but not in the Middle East.

Its this duality of feelings I have to live with as someone living in the West, despite being the best representation of the free world, they've royally screwed up other countries and regions in the world including my native country. My people paid the ultimate price and still do to this day, despite most of us being Western leaning, they killed our best people(Patrice Lumumba, Robert Serumaga, etc) who would have led the creation of tolerant multi ethnic democratic societies. Yet they(the West) were behind creating people like Idi Amin and Obote(who obviously turned against the West and killed a lot of people) all in a plot to use minorities to subjugate majorities. Whats always missing is the fact the West actually played major roles in creating a lot of these mass murderers. I just cant believe this folly and how it sets up perpetual conflict in the Middle East and Africa. Surely in this day and age they should have learned from their past mistakes. Anyways thank you.

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No idea what to tell you..... perhaps that I've studied the history of Uganda carefully enough to know what are you talking about. And to say: yes, it was the same in Rwanda, and in Angola, and in the Congo..... and, and, and....few other places around the continent.

....and that nowadays 'that's all history' and thus nobody cares any more (at least not in the West).... but, 'strangely enough', 'nobody can understand' when there's another war caused by such bestialities....

It's like the EU complaining about all the African refugees - while ignoring the fact that it was the EU oligarchy that created them (for example: by completely destroying the poultry industry of Western Africa, thus creating millions of jobless people).

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Honestly you've done your part and a great job with your books and it shows you understand the nuances of the societies you write about, which is not an easy feat. Thank you.

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It is sadly the most efficient way to keep entire regions in a state that they can never become a threat to the "west".

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I wish the people that hold this view would understand we're all humans and capable and through innovation we can solve our challenges. Its not a zero sum game where one group should be disadvantaged/disenfranchised to benefit the other.

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Read Wallerstein about the Core (Rich, high technology) and Periphery (resources extraction) countries. West, in order to remain Rich and liberał, needs Periphery, which must be por and barbaric.

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thank you I will add it to my list.

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This could be understandable ( though in no wau justifiable) for people to seek their interests on the expense of other , what is mind boggling is for the core to further the interests of the opposite core and push the periphery to the other direction and even pave the road that would end of them becoming a periphery themselves!

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In Wallerstein's terminology China is Semiperiphery - less advanced industry with low profit margin, trying to upgrade to Core with strong dictatorial state and military. XVIII century Prussia was semiperiphery, Poland was Periphery. The American policy makes more sense, when you consider that according to Wallerstein an united universal empire is incompatible with capitalism- since it makes this core-periphery division impossible. The extraction of profits and resources from the periphery is necessary. Therefore other functioning states which partially balance America are necessary. USA keeps high margin tech industry for itself, China invests madly, extracts wealth from its population and transfers it to USA.

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That's the old economists' talk of what is more important: trade or workforce productivity.

If trade is the main booster for well-being, then there is a need for a periphery to extract resources from.

If workforce productivity is a stronger factor, then it makes sense to boost technology throughout the world.

Moreover, there are such extra factors as worldwide ecology (including the global warming) and migration (which provides cheap workforce if accepted).

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Certainly. But capitalism works in a different way. Equal development of an economic world (ie an area which trades in things other than luxuries, which can move between worlds eg silk from China to Rome) requires a quite different organisation. That would be an universal empire, and USA does not want one, at present.

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The theory of economics also comes from the capitalists. Moreover, there is neither pure capitalism (meaning no social services and no taxes) as poor people would revolt immediately nor pure socialism (very high taxes and low inequality) as there is no sense to work and invent if one gets everything for free.

I believe you have here the "geopolitics" much loved by Moscow, and probably less loudly loved by Washington. It's not about capitalism or even communism, it's about power.

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