I am no military expert, but possibly it is a domino effect - if the air defense is tight and covers the whole line, almost nothing goes through. If there are holes, more and more drones can pick out individual sites and isolate them even more.
Moreover, there is the asymmetry of cost: the means of attack are much cheaper and faster to produce than the means of defense.
1. By developing and manufacturing a variety of their own drones "en masse". 2. By successfully using russia's lack of air defense systems which are being used mainly along the front lines (1000+ km) and in central Moskow - to protect its center (so called "ring") and a couple of putin's nests.
Much as JM described it. The more gaps, the less mutual coverage. The most important component is the loss of radars, which provide detection.
The Russian or Western air defenses were not designed to combat something as small as a drone. The larger the drone, the easier it is to shoot down. Even so, there were several misses caught on video during the Moscow attacks on the 18 June. I saw one video were a drone was shot down. The smaller mid-strike drones are harder to shoot down. The FPV drones are almost impossible to shoot down with conventional air defenses. FPV drones transported on naval drones were able to take advantage of that and destroy a lot of air defense components in Crimea.
Yup. In regards of knocking out the Russian air defences, and also because the industry can't keep up (primarily because it's lacking the capability to manufacture the necessary electronics at home), the losses of the last three years are beginning to show. So much so, the VKS is forced to replace modern systems by old, less capable ones. And experienced operators by inexperienced ones. That in then creating a vicious circle, because older systems operated by inexperienced crews are simply less effective...
Additionally, the Russians are making similar experiences like Israelis, Americans, and Iranians in the recent war: big air defence systems = not good. Small, highly mobile/flexible systems = not ideal, but better.
And ammo expenditure is simply insane, because one is not really shooting at aircraft, but at hundreds of UAVs, mini-cruise missiles, and similar weaponry, and that 'the whole day (and night)'.
There is almost no water in the North Crimean canal. Here's an image of a bridge when the canal was completely dry in 2019 at Krasnoperekopsk, 20 km south of Armiansk.
If you use the StreetView icon on Google Maps, there are small blue circles along the canal at various locations. You can click on each of them to see the canal at different locations. That date of the image is at the bottom of the view.
There are also a lot of other canals that were fed by the North Crimean canal. They also have bridges. Here's one at Preobrazhenka, about 15 km from the North Crimean canal.
Thanks Tom and Don, the ZSU maintaining an UAS air superiority/DEAD campaign against the VSRF for 250 km from the FLOT looks good, hope it will overcome any Russian countermeasures.
Thank you very much for the great read.
A bit off topic, but there's one thing i'm wondering about.
According to the zsu, it seems like russia is loosing Air defense systems at a much higher rate now. What did change? how did they achieve this?
I am no military expert, but possibly it is a domino effect - if the air defense is tight and covers the whole line, almost nothing goes through. If there are holes, more and more drones can pick out individual sites and isolate them even more.
Moreover, there is the asymmetry of cost: the means of attack are much cheaper and faster to produce than the means of defense.
1. By developing and manufacturing a variety of their own drones "en masse". 2. By successfully using russia's lack of air defense systems which are being used mainly along the front lines (1000+ km) and in central Moskow - to protect its center (so called "ring") and a couple of putin's nests.
Much as JM described it. The more gaps, the less mutual coverage. The most important component is the loss of radars, which provide detection.
The Russian or Western air defenses were not designed to combat something as small as a drone. The larger the drone, the easier it is to shoot down. Even so, there were several misses caught on video during the Moscow attacks on the 18 June. I saw one video were a drone was shot down. The smaller mid-strike drones are harder to shoot down. The FPV drones are almost impossible to shoot down with conventional air defenses. FPV drones transported on naval drones were able to take advantage of that and destroy a lot of air defense components in Crimea.
Yup. In regards of knocking out the Russian air defences, and also because the industry can't keep up (primarily because it's lacking the capability to manufacture the necessary electronics at home), the losses of the last three years are beginning to show. So much so, the VKS is forced to replace modern systems by old, less capable ones. And experienced operators by inexperienced ones. That in then creating a vicious circle, because older systems operated by inexperienced crews are simply less effective...
Additionally, the Russians are making similar experiences like Israelis, Americans, and Iranians in the recent war: big air defence systems = not good. Small, highly mobile/flexible systems = not ideal, but better.
And ammo expenditure is simply insane, because one is not really shooting at aircraft, but at hundreds of UAVs, mini-cruise missiles, and similar weaponry, and that 'the whole day (and night)'.
I will bookmark this to see how it ages in a few months.
Assuming you are stil alive.
Ukraine targets civilians? 🤔
No, but your Fuehrer in his Kremlin Bunker does not care too much, be it his own subdues or inhabitants of civilized countries.
I think you need to type what you were trying to say into ChatGPT and get the correct translation 🤔
take my advice and keep your windows closed.
I will do what I want. Have fun coughing up that $300 billion to Iran 😂
what's worse than a Russian Vatnik? a European Vatnik
I'm not European and I'm not sure why bookmarking this thread to refer to in a few months is offensive to you.
Probably just a reaction to your traditional pro-Russian remarks.
We knew
Good analysis!
Is there still any water in the canal after the Kakhovka dam destruction? Do they really need proper bridges?
There is almost no water in the North Crimean canal. Here's an image of a bridge when the canal was completely dry in 2019 at Krasnoperekopsk, 20 km south of Armiansk.
https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/city-krasnoperekopsk-crimea-crimean-peninsula-0731-2374975481?trackingId=b3fc3c50-ccfe-49f6-88e7-f27565cfba41&listId=searchResults
Here's numerous other images from the same source:
https://www.shutterstock.com/search/north-crimean-canal
A GoogleMaps image of one of the two Kalanchak bridges in 2014 when it still had water:
https://www.google.com/maps/@46.2822971,33.273422,3a,75y,181.69h,86.36t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sCIHM0ogKEICAgIC6zaKTYw!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fgpms-cs-s%2FABJJf50CHVUIV-iefop1DaTnERRfDEW4KgQ3DjUcn7gbDWUYsboGbbKXGeYm-rPUoG5mL1lvC6-pAzEp4254ujz1CZRAqoUZftNAy9iC__YgzlzybYU2XEFlfDYiLQe1rdDHIbDpZVi8%3Dw900-h600-k-no-pi3.6443478028758136-ya293.6874955441486-ro0-fo100!7i4000!8i2000?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDYxMy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
If you use the StreetView icon on Google Maps, there are small blue circles along the canal at various locations. You can click on each of them to see the canal at different locations. That date of the image is at the bottom of the view.
There are also a lot of other canals that were fed by the North Crimean canal. They also have bridges. Here's one at Preobrazhenka, about 15 km from the North Crimean canal.
https://www.google.com/maps/@46.38273,33.4927899,3a,75y,11.03h,75.77t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sCIHM0ogKEICAgIC4rc_iIg!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fgpms-cs-s%2FABJJf50pBEn2LAoYisihersn_4TdMsCExEXUdxhX_nRPfDeTtFk6TC5TdLaPU8E6Y11Y0MDo7AhhMYP_JhL7vVPRM7HJiURMDj2OwP8P6Y-qpoJ_Ip8xM95mtsnU1o6MaZvIy8ggjxY%3Dw900-h600-k-no-pi14.225401235911832-ya72.03490076490311-ro0-fo100!7i6144!8i3072?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDYxMy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
Thanks Tom and Don, the ZSU maintaining an UAS air superiority/DEAD campaign against the VSRF for 250 km from the FLOT looks good, hope it will overcome any Russian countermeasures.
I don’t see a way the Russians can get out of this mess successfully. Thanks Don!