There is, as yet, zero evidence that Israel is penetrating Iranian airspace with manned aircraft. All targets struck this far within Iran appear to have been done so with missiles, drones, or glide bombs launched from the periphery or Iranian airspace. The preponderance of missile boost stages scattered across Iraq and Syria is evidence of this method.
Sorry to hear about your family's health problems. I believe the U.S./Iran issue IS the most important issue facing Ukraine. I don't believe all help from the U.S. to Ukraine is gone. In any case, the U.S. getting into it with Iran, should Americans get killed by Iranian actions, would lead to a long resource-exhausting war. Even if the U.S. redoubled efforts to help Ukraine it would be hard pressed to do so (as it already is).
This is one of my bugbears. The U.S. simply does not have the industrial capacity to win a war with anyone who can build more missiles and drones, every day, from Chinese components.
Iran can pay China with oil revenues indefinitely. What is Israel going to pay with? Spyware for phones? Exploding beepers? Blind Arrow 3?
The U.S. needs to focus on Ukraine. Israel/Iran is distraction that benefits no one but Russia.
First and most important at all. Hopefully the medical treatment helps your 2 personal 'hospital cases' and they recover quickly and completely.
Another excellent update, as usual with a lot of unbiased information (nowhere else seen).
Seems as if the AD of Israel gets leaky and yes it is clearly a sign of sheer desperation to use Iron Dome against ballistic missiles. Now even the mainstream (for example BILD) admits those 2 facts.
It could be that the 'bite' might get too big for Israel.
Nothing is decided yet, except that the devastation is constantly growing.
"One of the missiles has targeted the most sacred site in Israel. A true altar of worship. No, not the mythical David’s Temple (no trace of which was found even 75 years since Israeli archaeologists started digging for it, all over Jerusalem), but: the Israel’s Stock Exchange."
The report is great but this sarcastic part is the best.)))
BTW, two US destroyers with their SAMs have already joined Israel air-defense to counter Iranian strikes:
Thanks Tom. The latest media reports on this topic indicate that the negotiation process between Iran and the United States has begun, preceded by mutual threats from both sides with various types of military actions.
Regarding point 3), it can be assumed that Israel hopes to nullify Iran's military potential with the help of the US. The Americans, on the one hand, are pulling their aircraft carriers into the conflict zone, and on the other, are announcing a "two-week pause." https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/06/19/7214165/
Thank you for this. I wish your family a speedy health recovery. Regarding health: «In my books, hospitals are sanctuaries, no ‘collateral damage’, and anybody wearing a military uniform while targeting them – intentionally or not – is an unprofessional and incompetent jerk, and a war criminal. Such actions are making me furious and I find that there is absolutely no excuse for such actions.» Thank you for this as well.
Ok, I know what you're thinking - hitting a hospital looks pretty bad, right? But you have to remember these are human animals Iran is dealing with. Jews only understand force and the law of the jungle - after all they worship some 3000 year old desert god. If you have a problem with these attacks you're Iranophobic and simply hate all Iranians - no other explanation. Iran will continue its civilizing mission of these desert savages no matter what human rights groups, the UN, activists, world leaders, etc. say. Next time Israel will think twice before kidnapping Greta Thunberg.
So, you appear to justify October 7 massacre, Hamas, Hizbollah, Houthi terror attacks and to completely demolish Israel threats of so called peaceful Islamic States? Iran is civilizing it's own people since decades,- that sounds good?
I used to regard this blog as a reliable information source regarding Ukraine.
Being local though, and reading those posts about the Middle East- I can easily see such a big pile of mistakes and inaccuracies, that I cannot regard it as a reliable source regarding Ukraine either.
Just to point out some of the mistakes in this rather short blog post:
1. There is no way there was an official "no hits" message regarding that morning missile savlo. There are sometimes some initial unofficial reports a few minutes after the air-raids sirens sound (such as, "no hits were reported so far"), but these are, well, initial reports- and often change within 10-15 minutes as additional reports come in.
2. The Israeli stock exchange wasn't hit. That hit in Ramat Gan was near a building which supposedly houses the "diamond stock exchange". The TASE is about 3-4 kms from there.
3. Neither Holon nor Ramat Gan are "districts of Tel-Aviv". These are separate cities in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area- similar to NYC and New-Jersey for example.
4. I fail to understand what that map of the Soroka Medical Center is supposed to describe, as it looks nothing like the hospital's location. But neither the C4I HQ nor the Gav-Yam building are adjacent to the hospital- and Gav-Yam building for example is about 800m from the hospital and about 1km from the hospital's building that was hit. This can be easily verified by any interested reader by simply searching Google Maps. There are cases where hospitals in Israel are adjacent to military sites, mostly for historical reasons: for example the Shamir Medical Center was originally constructed by the British as a military hospital next to the adjacent military camp- both are still there, with the existing IDF base being slowly dismantled. This however is not the case with Beer Sheva's hospital.
5. Unlike the Iranian version of the events, which Tom seems to accept without much question- one of the hospital's structures seems to have been hit directly, with parts of the roof collapsing and catching fire. Luckily it was evacuated a couple of days prior- so no casualties. The rest of the hospital suffered more minor damage (e.g. broken windows, fallen ceilings) due to the shockwave- so it was forced to close down.
It is first info, so some things can be later adjusted and for point 3 for us not from israel it is the same district or cities in tel aviv area. It is important to read between lines as take it as wikipedia. Iran has huge problem with air defence but still there is same and is able to hit izrael with balistic. Izrael has also problem with protection but smaller as iran. And both have no problem to attack civil targets , maybe not as primary.
As for 'reliable information': why are people reading this blog so much, or considering 'me' for so highly reliable - simply no idea. I'm continuously advising everybody to stop reading and leave.
Indeed, whenever I read some of my old posts about developments in Ukraine (especially back in Feb-Mar 2022) - I get a very sinking feeling. Because, even though 'generally accurate', they were full of idiotic mistakes (especially in regards of geography, but also because back then I was so clueless about the ZSU).
The reason is that I'm posting here what I've got 'on the go'. De-facto, a 'write up'. Something I'm using for the start of further research.
...and should I then decide to, sometimes in the future, cover the same topic again: the result is going to be even more updated. Because the research never ends, and I'm constantly re-checking, cross-checking and updating. Should there be any doubts: check my books on, for example, Arab air forces, or Iran-Iraq War etc. ...or, thinking of it: pay attention at differences between books like War in Ukraine Volume 2 and War in Ukraine Volume 6 (the first significant update), not tot talk about War in Ukraine Volume 8 (Battle of Kyiv) - which is about to come out this week (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-8-the-battle-of-kyiv-february-april-2022.php - which is not mine, but I've helped make it).
Re. 'accepting Iranian version without much question': it so happens that in the last 3 years (in particular) the Israeli reporting (official or not) has proven as 90% lies, fantasies and PRBS. Arguably, it wasn't much better at earlier times. But, meanwhile, it's just awful. It began already with IDF's mass-murdering Israelis hijacked by Hamas (and others), on 7 October 2023... and then went on with 'bunkers under hospitals', 'UNRWA terrorists', 'Hamas stole relief aid' etc. Do I really need to tell more?
(In that sense: if half the Israeli reports are babbling about 'stock exchange'... what do you expect me to do? Deny them all?)
...actually, thinking of this brawl: you're now the first (apparently) Israeli to come up with anything useful at all.
On the contrary: almost 30 years of experience from working with them have taught me two things: that the few Iranian contacts I have are usually 'at least good enough for the start'. Moreover, I know to distinguish between their PRBS and what's useful.
BTW, don't worry: over the time, have tried to work with several Israeli academics, with 'enthusiast researchers', too. Really have given that a serious try. Turned out, they either have their dogmas (see, 'it happened like that, and in no other way' even when the evidence is obvious that 'it happened' in entirely different fashion), or 'my work has earned all the possible accolades and thus I know better'. Or, they're coming back with conclusions like, and that's a literal quote, that I'm disgusting because I'm considering them ((Arabs)) equal to us ((Israelis)). (This time, I'll abstain from counting how often, and by whom in Israel I've been called an 'Austrian, and everybody knows who was an Austrian', or simply 'anti-Semite'.)
Bottom line: avoid. Don't read. Trust me, you're going to feel much better. Is no lie.
When reading Tom's posts you have to take into account that he dislikes (hates ?) Israel and Russia very much. I like reading his posts about air warfare. Don's and Benjamin's posts, however are pure propaganda crap.
Most info out there is biased one way or the other, so I read both and try to find the common ground.
This is just a warmup phase. If Trump says he will make a decision in two weeks, that means the decision has already been made and the preparations are now in progress. Looks like the UK might join in on the action as well.
How much, if any, additional ordinance and launchers (in the form of e.g. shorter range ballistic missiles) have available to use if / when Trump ensures that potential targets for Iran expand to include US bases in the region rather than merely Israel?
One must keep in mind that up to 90% of the IRGC's missile projects is driven by the requirement to hit
a) Israel, and
b) US bases in the MIddle East.
So, when, for example, they're after a missile with a range of 1,300km, then because that's the distance from around Khorramshahr to Israel. When it's about a missile with a range of 2,000km, then they want the capability to strike Israel 'from safety' of central Iran, where Israel cannot reach. And, when they're after a missile with a range of 4,000km, then not 'in order to threaten Europe', as plentiful of idiots are claiming, but after the capability to strike the US-base of Diego Garcia.
The same is valid for shorter ranges: the mass of US bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman are some 300-800km away from Iran. This is why Iran has a huge number of shorter-ranged, but high-speed ballistic missiles (many of them with terminal guidance capability, too).
No specific ideas about the number of TELs for them, but these are available 'in thousands'.
Not that the attack on the hospital is justfied but seeing how close it is from IDF sites and seeing how much Israel screams about hamas human shields its a pretty good exemple of "Accuse your enemy of what you are doing"
Also a bunch of videos of the IDF using human shields:
I wonder how much he is in control. This is now becoming a full on, regime change operation that has been decades in the making. I doubt they will stop after just a few days.
I suspect that Trump is now being faced with a reality that may be controlling him rather than his own perceptions that Trump, the Big Guy, is calling the shots. Up until this critical decision of U.S. war vs no war with Iran in the form of a putative one-on strike on Fordow, Trump has been living in his own self-perceived reality TV series. Trump now exists in the real world with a vengeance. Play time is over. I can conceive of nothing more critical & stressfull for a President who alone must make the decision to attack or to defer military action against another nation-state. I am counting on TACO rather than the POV of Fox News, General Keane, et. al., who consider this moment to be an irresistible, strategic opportunity to deal with Iran decisively. I am no peacenik, but I see an attack by the U.S. on Iran as opening Pandora's Box. Who knows what will result? One thing I know, is that the rules based international order has been eroding for quite some time. A U.S. attack will drive the proverbial wooden stake into that very order and negate just about everything the U.S. supposedly stands for in dealing with sovereign nation-states, even shitty ones such as Iran ruled by a violent theocracy.
"I'm not prepared to look the other way while Israel tries to divert public attention from its genocide against the Palestinians by massacring people elsewhere in the Middle East."
I'm actually a little surprised by your level of idealism today, but I fully support it.
Although I, and I'm sure you too, know that it won't achieve anything in principle.
People need an evil person to condemn and a good person to support. It overwhelms many when you say "both are idiots." Then people just get confused and don't know who to support, and nobody wants to be confused. But I'm not a psychologist either...these are just my experiences.
Thanks for the update and your analysis. On Israel, I agree with your mentioning killing of civilians, both in Gaza and even Iran(mostly collateral), but these countries, including Iran, want to wipe out Israel from the world map. No other countries says or wishes so. Coming back to Palestine, don't you think Hamas used civilians as shield? Didn't it kill thousands on October 7, mercilessly irrespective of age and gender, while also taking hostages?
Re. 'wipping off the map': North Korea was promising to wipe off South Korea from the map. Then it was left to develop its nukes and... oh, see there: it didn't wipe off South Korea from the map.
...and nobody became hysteric about its nukes.
Re. other countries wishing to do so... ah come on: since 1967, not one Arab 'statesman' can remain in power without expressing his wish to 'wipe off Israel from the map'. The question is only
a) how much is that reported in 'the West'. Of course, when the regimes in question are bribing the Western media to 'at least not report anything critical' about them - like KSA, UAE, Qatar etc. are doing at least since 2015 (which is something like 'public secret', about which there were lots of publications, 10 years ago) - then 'ah no, nobody else but Iran' is expressing such threats.
b) Even more so, the question is that of military capability and having a serious plan to do so.
So far, saw no evidence for b, no matter where.
Thus, let me remind you: during the war of June 1967, when destroying the Egyptian army on the Sinai in what they're systematically therming a 'pre-emptive attack', the Israelis captured the complete documentation of all the Egyptian units deployed there (and that was nearly 90% of the Egyptian army, plus a significant contingent of the air force). And yet, they've found no plans for an 'invasion of Israel', nor for 'wiping Israel off the map'. Indeed, no other evidence - no other documentation - but for the air force to have planned a few luke-warm attacks on air bases in Israel, half of which didn't even exist (because the Egyptian intel was so piss-poor, they had no idea where is the Israeli air force actually based).
If one has no serious military plan to do so (not to talk about no capability to do so, even in theory), well, then that with 'wiping Israel of the map' is just PRBS.
Re. 'Hamas using civilians as human shields': that's an Israeli lie, based on the fact that it is the IDF that's using civilians as human shields all the time (see: 'blame the other side for what you're doing'). In detail: https://www.btselem.org/topic/human_shields
Pay attention at the fact that already in 2005, the Israeli judiciary attempted to stop that practice - and failed: the IDF complained and the ban was lifted.
On the contrary: already on 8-9 October 2023, the full Hamas documentation - entire sets of orders - were captured by the Israelis, all stressing 'capture civilians and military personnel for negotiations'. CAPTURE, not 'kill them'. I.e. the aim of the operation was to take hostages to exchange them for Palestinian captives held in Israel. This was also published by few media instances - and then quickly silenced, as always. For at least a few related details, see:
...what is also never published 'in the West' are investigations by the Israeli media about mass-murder of Israeli hostages by the IDF (see 'Hannibal Directive'). For example, an entire car column full of people fleeing the Nova festival was smashed by Israeli helicopters. Similarly, when it was about 'liberating' hostages in at least two Kibbutzim, the IDF went in and shoot these to pieces, without any care about 'collateral' damage.
Of course, all the related reporting was quickly suppressed even in Israel, the survivors secluded from the public, and prohibited from speaking out. Still, there are enough links to see things with own eyes:
...and other IASF pilots reporting (28 attack helicopters) having spent 'tremendous amounts of (30mm) ammunition' while firing at anybody attempting to cross the 'border' between Gaza and Israel, and back, on 7 October 2023?
Quote: "The frequency of fire at the thousands of terrorists was enormous at the start, and only at a certain point did the pilots begin to slow their attacks and carefully choose the targets."
Quote: "The IDF instructed all its fighting units in practice to follow the 'Hannibal Directive', although without clearly mentioning this explicit name," he said.
"The instruction is to stop 'at all costs' any attempt by Hamas terrorists to return to Gaza, using language very similar to the original 'Hannibal Directive', despite repeated assurances by the security establishment that the procedure has been cancelled."
Bergman's investigation found 70 vehicles were destroyed by Israeli aircraft and tanks to prevent them being driven into Gaza, killing everyone inside.
"It is not clear at this point how many of the abductees were killed due to the activation of this [Hannibal] order on October 7," he wrote.
There is, as yet, zero evidence that Israel is penetrating Iranian airspace with manned aircraft. All targets struck this far within Iran appear to have been done so with missiles, drones, or glide bombs launched from the periphery or Iranian airspace. The preponderance of missile boost stages scattered across Iraq and Syria is evidence of this method.
Of course not.
But, try to explain this to any of professional experts in 'the West'....
There, whatever Israel reports, is a dogma. Period.
Most importantly, Israeli best infiltrator jets, the F-35, have relatively short range, and Israel has very linited aerial tanker fleet...
"and Israel has very linited aerial tanker fleet.."
not for long though...
it seems at least 2 weeks... (rolls eyes)
gotta love president who delays decision 2 weeks in hope that problem goes away
Sorry to hear about your family's health problems. I believe the U.S./Iran issue IS the most important issue facing Ukraine. I don't believe all help from the U.S. to Ukraine is gone. In any case, the U.S. getting into it with Iran, should Americans get killed by Iranian actions, would lead to a long resource-exhausting war. Even if the U.S. redoubled efforts to help Ukraine it would be hard pressed to do so (as it already is).
This is one of my bugbears. The U.S. simply does not have the industrial capacity to win a war with anyone who can build more missiles and drones, every day, from Chinese components.
Iran can pay China with oil revenues indefinitely. What is Israel going to pay with? Spyware for phones? Exploding beepers? Blind Arrow 3?
The U.S. needs to focus on Ukraine. Israel/Iran is distraction that benefits no one but Russia.
True, but the religious-military-industrial complex will always put Israel first.
Nah it benefits Bibi and china too
First and most important at all. Hopefully the medical treatment helps your 2 personal 'hospital cases' and they recover quickly and completely.
Another excellent update, as usual with a lot of unbiased information (nowhere else seen).
Seems as if the AD of Israel gets leaky and yes it is clearly a sign of sheer desperation to use Iron Dome against ballistic missiles. Now even the mainstream (for example BILD) admits those 2 facts.
It could be that the 'bite' might get too big for Israel.
Nothing is decided yet, except that the devastation is constantly growing.
That's the sadest thing: the way I know these two 'parties', this is likely to go on 'forever'. Really, 'for years'.
If nothing else, they are already 'in a state of (secret) war' since around 1980s...
If one believes the story of Marc Rich there wasn't really a need for this to happen.
Of course not. The JPCOA was highly effective, and Iranians sticking to it (see the incomplete reactor in Arak).
Second that comment.
"One of the missiles has targeted the most sacred site in Israel. A true altar of worship. No, not the mythical David’s Temple (no trace of which was found even 75 years since Israeli archaeologists started digging for it, all over Jerusalem), but: the Israel’s Stock Exchange."
The report is great but this sarcastic part is the best.)))
BTW, two US destroyers with their SAMs have already joined Israel air-defense to counter Iranian strikes:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-warships-downed-iranian-missiles-massive-attack-on-israel-2024-10
Thx.
The two DDGs of the USN might be the reason why this afternoon's missile strike didn't get through.
Article from oktober 1st 2024?
Right, wrong ref:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-air-defense-systems-naval-destroyer-help-down-iranian-missiles-fired-at-israel/
https://defence-blog.com/u-s-warships-help-israel-counter-iranian-strikes/
Thanx for noting
Thanks Tom. The latest media reports on this topic indicate that the negotiation process between Iran and the United States has begun, preceded by mutual threats from both sides with various types of military actions.
https://ria-m.tv/ua/news/381519/ssha-ta-iran-proveli-pryami-peregovori-na-tli-eskalatsii-z-izrailem-reuters.html
Israel responded to this as follows
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2025/06/19/7517772/
It is indicated that in September 2024, Israeli special forces destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria in the same way.
Interesting but:
1) I know Israeli PR
2) Iran isn't Syria in September 2024.
3) If they can do it, why do they try to draw the USA into the war?
Regarding point 3), it can be assumed that Israel hopes to nullify Iran's military potential with the help of the US. The Americans, on the one hand, are pulling their aircraft carriers into the conflict zone, and on the other, are announcing a "two-week pause." https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/06/19/7214165/
So I guess they are just bluffing and the USA is just buying time to get additional forces to the aera.
If they need several carrier groups just for Iran also means they would have a real problem with China if China decides to attack Taiwan.
This two week psuse- is it to Buy time for Israel to destroy Iranian nuclear infra? Killing of more Iranian leadership- including Mr Khomenie?
Thank you for this. I wish your family a speedy health recovery. Regarding health: «In my books, hospitals are sanctuaries, no ‘collateral damage’, and anybody wearing a military uniform while targeting them – intentionally or not – is an unprofessional and incompetent jerk, and a war criminal. Such actions are making me furious and I find that there is absolutely no excuse for such actions.» Thank you for this as well.
Ok, I know what you're thinking - hitting a hospital looks pretty bad, right? But you have to remember these are human animals Iran is dealing with. Jews only understand force and the law of the jungle - after all they worship some 3000 year old desert god. If you have a problem with these attacks you're Iranophobic and simply hate all Iranians - no other explanation. Iran will continue its civilizing mission of these desert savages no matter what human rights groups, the UN, activists, world leaders, etc. say. Next time Israel will think twice before kidnapping Greta Thunberg.
#Freethehostages
No, no, that's the wrong script.
The right script is that Israel struck its own hospital with a failed interceptor. To say otherwise is blood libel against Persians.
So, you appear to justify October 7 massacre, Hamas, Hizbollah, Houthi terror attacks and to completely demolish Israel threats of so called peaceful Islamic States? Iran is civilizing it's own people since decades,- that sounds good?
He just inverted the pro-Israel talking points to show how inhuman they sound when you pay attention for a second.
Thanks for this Tom. Hope your situation be better as soon as posible.
Regarding Iran missiles, not the have more precise ones to not to get a hospital across the street?
I used to regard this blog as a reliable information source regarding Ukraine.
Being local though, and reading those posts about the Middle East- I can easily see such a big pile of mistakes and inaccuracies, that I cannot regard it as a reliable source regarding Ukraine either.
Just to point out some of the mistakes in this rather short blog post:
1. There is no way there was an official "no hits" message regarding that morning missile savlo. There are sometimes some initial unofficial reports a few minutes after the air-raids sirens sound (such as, "no hits were reported so far"), but these are, well, initial reports- and often change within 10-15 minutes as additional reports come in.
2. The Israeli stock exchange wasn't hit. That hit in Ramat Gan was near a building which supposedly houses the "diamond stock exchange". The TASE is about 3-4 kms from there.
3. Neither Holon nor Ramat Gan are "districts of Tel-Aviv". These are separate cities in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area- similar to NYC and New-Jersey for example.
4. I fail to understand what that map of the Soroka Medical Center is supposed to describe, as it looks nothing like the hospital's location. But neither the C4I HQ nor the Gav-Yam building are adjacent to the hospital- and Gav-Yam building for example is about 800m from the hospital and about 1km from the hospital's building that was hit. This can be easily verified by any interested reader by simply searching Google Maps. There are cases where hospitals in Israel are adjacent to military sites, mostly for historical reasons: for example the Shamir Medical Center was originally constructed by the British as a military hospital next to the adjacent military camp- both are still there, with the existing IDF base being slowly dismantled. This however is not the case with Beer Sheva's hospital.
5. Unlike the Iranian version of the events, which Tom seems to accept without much question- one of the hospital's structures seems to have been hit directly, with parts of the roof collapsing and catching fire. Luckily it was evacuated a couple of days prior- so no casualties. The rest of the hospital suffered more minor damage (e.g. broken windows, fallen ceilings) due to the shockwave- so it was forced to close down.
It is first info, so some things can be later adjusted and for point 3 for us not from israel it is the same district or cities in tel aviv area. It is important to read between lines as take it as wikipedia. Iran has huge problem with air defence but still there is same and is able to hit izrael with balistic. Izrael has also problem with protection but smaller as iran. And both have no problem to attack civil targets , maybe not as primary.
Thx for clarifying all of this.
As for 'reliable information': why are people reading this blog so much, or considering 'me' for so highly reliable - simply no idea. I'm continuously advising everybody to stop reading and leave.
Indeed, whenever I read some of my old posts about developments in Ukraine (especially back in Feb-Mar 2022) - I get a very sinking feeling. Because, even though 'generally accurate', they were full of idiotic mistakes (especially in regards of geography, but also because back then I was so clueless about the ZSU).
The reason is that I'm posting here what I've got 'on the go'. De-facto, a 'write up'. Something I'm using for the start of further research.
When you compare that with, for example, what I'm then subsequently using in books like this one: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-7-air-and-missile-warfare-march-june-2022.php - the story' is 'frequently significantly different. Especially in regards of details like you've listed them above, plus backgrounds and context.
...and should I then decide to, sometimes in the future, cover the same topic again: the result is going to be even more updated. Because the research never ends, and I'm constantly re-checking, cross-checking and updating. Should there be any doubts: check my books on, for example, Arab air forces, or Iran-Iraq War etc. ...or, thinking of it: pay attention at differences between books like War in Ukraine Volume 2 and War in Ukraine Volume 6 (the first significant update), not tot talk about War in Ukraine Volume 8 (Battle of Kyiv) - which is about to come out this week (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-8-the-battle-of-kyiv-february-april-2022.php - which is not mine, but I've helped make it).
Re. 'accepting Iranian version without much question': it so happens that in the last 3 years (in particular) the Israeli reporting (official or not) has proven as 90% lies, fantasies and PRBS. Arguably, it wasn't much better at earlier times. But, meanwhile, it's just awful. It began already with IDF's mass-murdering Israelis hijacked by Hamas (and others), on 7 October 2023... and then went on with 'bunkers under hospitals', 'UNRWA terrorists', 'Hamas stole relief aid' etc. Do I really need to tell more?
(In that sense: if half the Israeli reports are babbling about 'stock exchange'... what do you expect me to do? Deny them all?)
...actually, thinking of this brawl: you're now the first (apparently) Israeli to come up with anything useful at all.
On the contrary: almost 30 years of experience from working with them have taught me two things: that the few Iranian contacts I have are usually 'at least good enough for the start'. Moreover, I know to distinguish between their PRBS and what's useful.
BTW, don't worry: over the time, have tried to work with several Israeli academics, with 'enthusiast researchers', too. Really have given that a serious try. Turned out, they either have their dogmas (see, 'it happened like that, and in no other way' even when the evidence is obvious that 'it happened' in entirely different fashion), or 'my work has earned all the possible accolades and thus I know better'. Or, they're coming back with conclusions like, and that's a literal quote, that I'm disgusting because I'm considering them ((Arabs)) equal to us ((Israelis)). (This time, I'll abstain from counting how often, and by whom in Israel I've been called an 'Austrian, and everybody knows who was an Austrian', or simply 'anti-Semite'.)
Bottom line: avoid. Don't read. Trust me, you're going to feel much better. Is no lie.
Thanks for the local clarification on impacts.
Despite a few minor details, your article is much more truthful and informative than anything else you can find on this subject.
We know you are clueless Tom but we like you.
When reading Tom's posts you have to take into account that he dislikes (hates ?) Israel and Russia very much. I like reading his posts about air warfare. Don's and Benjamin's posts, however are pure propaganda crap.
Most info out there is biased one way or the other, so I read both and try to find the common ground.
Looks like a bloody stalemate to me.
And the Prez said he would make a decision in 2 weeks to join in airstrikes.
heh
Somebody miscalculated. Guess who?
This is what I learned in my 71 years of standing on the sidelines watching stupid wars....FACT Mike Tyson stole this from me after we fought.
“Everybody has a game plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
This is just a warmup phase. If Trump says he will make a decision in two weeks, that means the decision has already been made and the preparations are now in progress. Looks like the UK might join in on the action as well.
Nah. Even he doesn't know.
The military just needs the word. It's all dialed in.
Dimly or something in this stupid, cruel man's mind may give him pause. This isn't like threatening to invade Greenland or Panama.
You do know a broken clock does tell the correct time twice-a-day. A headline(s) can throw him off track. We can hope
I will go out on a limb and say..... he will equivocate.
How much, if any, additional ordinance and launchers (in the form of e.g. shorter range ballistic missiles) have available to use if / when Trump ensures that potential targets for Iran expand to include US bases in the region rather than merely Israel?
One must keep in mind that up to 90% of the IRGC's missile projects is driven by the requirement to hit
a) Israel, and
b) US bases in the MIddle East.
So, when, for example, they're after a missile with a range of 1,300km, then because that's the distance from around Khorramshahr to Israel. When it's about a missile with a range of 2,000km, then they want the capability to strike Israel 'from safety' of central Iran, where Israel cannot reach. And, when they're after a missile with a range of 4,000km, then not 'in order to threaten Europe', as plentiful of idiots are claiming, but after the capability to strike the US-base of Diego Garcia.
The same is valid for shorter ranges: the mass of US bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman are some 300-800km away from Iran. This is why Iran has a huge number of shorter-ranged, but high-speed ballistic missiles (many of them with terminal guidance capability, too).
No specific ideas about the number of TELs for them, but these are available 'in thousands'.
Not that the attack on the hospital is justfied but seeing how close it is from IDF sites and seeing how much Israel screams about hamas human shields its a pretty good exemple of "Accuse your enemy of what you are doing"
Also a bunch of videos of the IDF using human shields:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QEXe5nEVMM0
https://youtu.be/v8rrfys-Fgc?si=RpjSZgbLDyBHW0PM&t=14
https://youtu.be/yLmxLhp0PtU?si=rn9VomTQPjo8jPGY&t=38
https://youtu.be/-yVHLrIpXwo?si=AsroywQ1K9vWRd3e&t=16
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Cuuh40eqC20
TACO == Trump Always Chickens Out.
Let's hope in regard to the potential use of B-1s to bomb Fordow that it will not happen due to TACO.
My best wishes and thoughts for your family undergoing those medical issues in hospital.
I wonder how much he is in control. This is now becoming a full on, regime change operation that has been decades in the making. I doubt they will stop after just a few days.
I suspect that Trump is now being faced with a reality that may be controlling him rather than his own perceptions that Trump, the Big Guy, is calling the shots. Up until this critical decision of U.S. war vs no war with Iran in the form of a putative one-on strike on Fordow, Trump has been living in his own self-perceived reality TV series. Trump now exists in the real world with a vengeance. Play time is over. I can conceive of nothing more critical & stressfull for a President who alone must make the decision to attack or to defer military action against another nation-state. I am counting on TACO rather than the POV of Fox News, General Keane, et. al., who consider this moment to be an irresistible, strategic opportunity to deal with Iran decisively. I am no peacenik, but I see an attack by the U.S. on Iran as opening Pandora's Box. Who knows what will result? One thing I know, is that the rules based international order has been eroding for quite some time. A U.S. attack will drive the proverbial wooden stake into that very order and negate just about everything the U.S. supposedly stands for in dealing with sovereign nation-states, even shitty ones such as Iran ruled by a violent theocracy.
One note, the Iranians did a poor job posting that map of the Soroka medical center... the major streets are incorrect.
Yup, sorry: was not at home when finishing and posting this feature, so had limited capability to create illus.
Not your fault, it was straight from the Iranian tweet! ;)
"I'm not prepared to look the other way while Israel tries to divert public attention from its genocide against the Palestinians by massacring people elsewhere in the Middle East."
I'm actually a little surprised by your level of idealism today, but I fully support it.
Although I, and I'm sure you too, know that it won't achieve anything in principle.
People need an evil person to condemn and a good person to support. It overwhelms many when you say "both are idiots." Then people just get confused and don't know who to support, and nobody wants to be confused. But I'm not a psychologist either...these are just my experiences.
Get well soon to your family. 🤞🏻
Thanks for the update and your analysis. On Israel, I agree with your mentioning killing of civilians, both in Gaza and even Iran(mostly collateral), but these countries, including Iran, want to wipe out Israel from the world map. No other countries says or wishes so. Coming back to Palestine, don't you think Hamas used civilians as shield? Didn't it kill thousands on October 7, mercilessly irrespective of age and gender, while also taking hostages?
Re. 'wipping off the map': North Korea was promising to wipe off South Korea from the map. Then it was left to develop its nukes and... oh, see there: it didn't wipe off South Korea from the map.
...and nobody became hysteric about its nukes.
Re. other countries wishing to do so... ah come on: since 1967, not one Arab 'statesman' can remain in power without expressing his wish to 'wipe off Israel from the map'. The question is only
a) how much is that reported in 'the West'. Of course, when the regimes in question are bribing the Western media to 'at least not report anything critical' about them - like KSA, UAE, Qatar etc. are doing at least since 2015 (which is something like 'public secret', about which there were lots of publications, 10 years ago) - then 'ah no, nobody else but Iran' is expressing such threats.
b) Even more so, the question is that of military capability and having a serious plan to do so.
So far, saw no evidence for b, no matter where.
Thus, let me remind you: during the war of June 1967, when destroying the Egyptian army on the Sinai in what they're systematically therming a 'pre-emptive attack', the Israelis captured the complete documentation of all the Egyptian units deployed there (and that was nearly 90% of the Egyptian army, plus a significant contingent of the air force). And yet, they've found no plans for an 'invasion of Israel', nor for 'wiping Israel off the map'. Indeed, no other evidence - no other documentation - but for the air force to have planned a few luke-warm attacks on air bases in Israel, half of which didn't even exist (because the Egyptian intel was so piss-poor, they had no idea where is the Israeli air force actually based).
If one has no serious military plan to do so (not to talk about no capability to do so, even in theory), well, then that with 'wiping Israel of the map' is just PRBS.
Re. 'Hamas using civilians as human shields': that's an Israeli lie, based on the fact that it is the IDF that's using civilians as human shields all the time (see: 'blame the other side for what you're doing'). In detail: https://www.btselem.org/topic/human_shields
Pay attention at the fact that already in 2005, the Israeli judiciary attempted to stop that practice - and failed: the IDF complained and the ban was lifted.
On the contrary: already on 8-9 October 2023, the full Hamas documentation - entire sets of orders - were captured by the Israelis, all stressing 'capture civilians and military personnel for negotiations'. CAPTURE, not 'kill them'. I.e. the aim of the operation was to take hostages to exchange them for Palestinian captives held in Israel. This was also published by few media instances - and then quickly silenced, as always. For at least a few related details, see:
https://t.me/southfirstresponders/172
...what is also never published 'in the West' are investigations by the Israeli media about mass-murder of Israeli hostages by the IDF (see 'Hannibal Directive'). For example, an entire car column full of people fleeing the Nova festival was smashed by Israeli helicopters. Similarly, when it was about 'liberating' hostages in at least two Kibbutzim, the IDF went in and shoot these to pieces, without any care about 'collateral' damage.
Of course, all the related reporting was quickly suppressed even in Israel, the survivors secluded from the public, and prohibited from speaking out. Still, there are enough links to see things with own eyes:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-30/ty-article/.premium/families-of-killed-hostages-meet-with-idf-officer-who-ordered-tank-fire-on-kibbutz-home/00000191-045b-d117-abd9-8d7f73700000
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-07/ty-article-magazine/.premium/idf-ordered-hannibal-directive-on-october-7-to-prevent-hamas-taking-soldiers-captive/00000190-89a2-d776-a3b1-fdbe45520000
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231211-another-israel-witness-confirms-israeli-tanks-killed-own-citizens-on-7-october/
https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-hostages-investigation-friendly-fire-3b6fdd4592957340b32a8ee71505b8e9
https://www.timesofisrael.com/efrat-katz-likely-killed-by-iaf-helicopter-fire-during-oct-7-abduction-attempt-probe/
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/israeli-helicopter-shot-civilians-7-october-rave-police-find
https://thecradle.co/articles/israeli-apache-helicopters-killed-own-soldiers-civilians-on-7-october-report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFxrl8nUb7Q
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/10/27/israels-military-shelled-burning-tanks-helicopters/
https://electronicintifada.net/content/israeli-forces-shot-their-own-civilians-kibbutz-survivor-says/38861
Further stories about this tragedy: Colonel Nof Erez, Israeli Air-Space Force, telling about crews applying the Hannibal Directive:
https://www.haaretz.co.il/digital/podcast/weekly/2023-11-09/ty-article-podcast/0000018b-b3a5-d3c1-a39b-bfe55acb0000
...and other IASF pilots reporting (28 attack helicopters) having spent 'tremendous amounts of (30mm) ammunition' while firing at anybody attempting to cross the 'border' between Gaza and Israel, and back, on 7 October 2023?
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/b111niukzt
Quote: "The frequency of fire at the thousands of terrorists was enormous at the start, and only at a certain point did the pilots begin to slow their attacks and carefully choose the targets."
How about tank-officers reporting the same?
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=804214374885452
Quote: Captain Zonshein is asked: "So you might be killing them with that action? They are your soldiers."
"Right," he replied, "but I decided that this is the right decision, that it's better to stop the kidnapping, that they won't be taken."
How about Ronen Bergman reporting the same?
https://z.ynet.co.il/long/content/specials/time-of-darkness/
Quote: "The IDF instructed all its fighting units in practice to follow the 'Hannibal Directive', although without clearly mentioning this explicit name," he said.
"The instruction is to stop 'at all costs' any attempt by Hamas terrorists to return to Gaza, using language very similar to the original 'Hannibal Directive', despite repeated assurances by the security establishment that the procedure has been cancelled."
Bergman's investigation found 70 vehicles were destroyed by Israeli aircraft and tanks to prevent them being driven into Gaza, killing everyone inside.
"It is not clear at this point how many of the abductees were killed due to the activation of this [Hannibal] order on October 7," he wrote.
....etc., etc., etc...
Thanks, I kind of agree with that.
Wow, this gets worse and worse.