Hello everybody! Yes, I can get gleeful. On Monday the last week (24 July) I caught myself struggling to suppress a wide grin while reading a report by one of top (or is that, literally, ‘bottom’ in their case…?) Russian PRBS-industrialists. The character in question must’ve lost several pounds of weight and few litres of sweat while trying to fabricate a story that could eloquently explain how comes Ukrainians have deployed ‘UAVs/drones’ to decoy the Russian air defences, and then four Storm Shadows to blow up four different of VSRF’s ammo depots in the occupied Crimea. And all four hit, too.
Tom is an Austrian, thus German is his native language. I think you confused it with Dutch (wonderwapen). In German it's Wunderwaffen and Waffen the term for weapon/arms
Could you explain please the missile weight discrepancy on the RAF diagram - 1300 pounds - vs 1300 kg in text and sources? Length and range are correct.
The first image that says 1,300kg was taken from the official MBDA website and it is available as a PDF on the Storm Shadow page. I believe the other image just had an error and didn't convert kg to pounds
May the good God give us more such serene days. Thank you for your effort and "crooked smile". Messengers bringing good news had a chance to continue their work? Or were they rewarded like those delivering "slightly worse" news?!
Re. Henichesk Bridge: haven't heard about any attacks on it.
One way or the other: that bridge is on the road/railway from Chongar to Melitopol. Thus, if the Chongar Bridges are down, it's 'useless' (at least for the time being).
The news about the destruction of the Russian logistics chain in Crimea is something that makes me extremely happy.
I hope Ukraine has the necessary means to continue attacking these targets, they are, in my view, the key points at the moment.
If the Russians manage to repair the bridge in a week, the Ukrainians must destroy it again soon after the repair is completed. And I imagine that's their goal. I hope from the bottom of my heart that they have some Storm Shadows stocks reserved for these bridges in crimea
thank you very much for the update and the background info.
Question: Arty and its ammo are the most crucial "tools of the trade" for the UAF, no doubt. However, considering the limitations of the platforms (both by weight and electronics) wouldn't be the F-16 a significant improvement of the PSU's capabilities? Even a dozen of them (I think this number was rumored) would/could double the launch platforms for the Storm Shadows and as they can launch the HARMs as well. It could be easier to organize the missions too according to the possible targets.
I don't think they would change the tide of the war, but the aerial warfare perhaps could be more effective with them.
Indeed: I'm actually reluctant to use 'SS' as abbreviation for Storm Shadow. Doing so only when replying in hurry - and then because I've seen lots of others using this abbreviation.
Many thanks for your work (and for bringing good news, indeed!).
Seems that we may expect a “series” about Air-to-ground warfare, and I’m delighted with that.
And regarding “saints making miracles with words” (I.e.: plagiarism) is as old as the world is, and very difficult to solve (lawyers are expensive, so only expose the culprit to the public).
According to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6EJ5m9xpXQ that is the picture from the other side of the bridge and the bridge got hit two times. The other hit was more severe. Let's hope this is true but satelite images normally lie less than Russian pictures.
Thanks Tom! Ukraine is also back to “striking” Moscow with drones. Do you have any insight into them? And yet, while I understand the wow effect of striking “targets” in Moscow (and that priobably we are talking about prototypes and flight tests ) , I don’t understand why Ukraine is not going after some more flammable targets like refineries or chemical plants
Several were hit during the past month, but next to no strong fires or blasts followed, except in the occupied territories (where something heavier could have been used). Either the drones are too light for serious damage, or the sites are protected with AD.
Yep, the ones near Ukraine were protected. But there are refineries closer to Moscow which I guess will be much less protected. Or they can hit some powder/ammo production facility (the forest fires several months ago near Ekaterinburg caused a lot of panic after engulfing several powder sites) or an ammo depo of which there are plenty across Russia and I guess the locations are the same as in the good days of the Soviet Union.
Hitting skycrapers in the middle of Moscows key district is doing more damage to Putins credibility than hitting depots somewhere. If the Ukrainians want to win the peace, Putin must leave and that's what this attacks are for. Because Putin promised them of making them great again and with those attacks he gets proven, that he didn't.
So why keep Putin as president? - in 6,5 month there is the first round of Russian elections going on. The home front is more important for him than Ukraine. So that is a sober distraction + to prevent that from happening he needs to pull out air defence units from Ukraine.
To my mind: Hopefully they are hitting the same skyscraper for the third time.
I am not holding my breath to see Putin voted out. Hitting a chemical facility here, a refinery there or an ammo factory (which are not that fortified) in Tula (for example) and forcing the nearby population to evacuate briefly will do much more damage to Putin’s credibility that poking a hole in a high-rise (yeah we shot down the drone but it exploded upon contact). And if there is also some economic impact ...
He won't be, but it is trouble. Factories have normally roofs and this drones I guess will penetrate it but won't cause an explosion inside.
Furthermore it has an economic impact, cause all that fency stuff is insured and insurance companies are normally not Russian. That will raise the premiums. Additionally, if they have to stop air traffic at Moscow airport, it creates a factor of unsecurity which foreign investors won't ignore, what they can do with the moral apsect.
"Sure, in comparison, the latest strike on the Krim/Kerch Bridge (...) was not as successful as it appeared on the first sight: knocked out ‘just’ the road part of the construction."
But, isn't that the point? Leaving the Kerch railway intact so the Ruzzians keep pouring stuff into Crimea, AND ONLY THEN cutting off the Chongar railway bridges so that the stuff remains stuck in Crimea?
Don't think so: at war, bridges are either dropped, or they are not dropped. Don't know anybody seriously considering (mis)using attacks on them for any other purposes but to blow them up.
Claimed to be photos showing damage to the rail part of the Kerch bridge. I do not see it myself but maybe somebody with more experience of studying such photos?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wunderwaffe
Tom is an Austrian, thus German is his native language. I think you confused it with Dutch (wonderwapen). In German it's Wunderwaffen and Waffen the term for weapon/arms
Could you explain please the missile weight discrepancy on the RAF diagram - 1300 pounds - vs 1300 kg in text and sources? Length and range are correct.
The first image that says 1,300kg was taken from the official MBDA website and it is available as a PDF on the Storm Shadow page. I believe the other image just had an error and didn't convert kg to pounds
AFAIK, '1,300 pounds' is somebody's error. Officially declared weight is 1,300kg.
May the good God give us more such serene days. Thank you for your effort and "crooked smile". Messengers bringing good news had a chance to continue their work? Or were they rewarded like those delivering "slightly worse" news?!
First of all congratulations on your coverage and on your several books that grace my shelves.
One question: You do not mention the bridges at Heniches'k. Are they also down or do you consider them too light to carry much logistic traffic?
Regards,
Helmoed Heitman, heitman@iafrica.com
Thx! Got a few of your books, too. ;-)
Re. Henichesk Bridge: haven't heard about any attacks on it.
One way or the other: that bridge is on the road/railway from Chongar to Melitopol. Thus, if the Chongar Bridges are down, it's 'useless' (at least for the time being).
The news about the destruction of the Russian logistics chain in Crimea is something that makes me extremely happy.
I hope Ukraine has the necessary means to continue attacking these targets, they are, in my view, the key points at the moment.
If the Russians manage to repair the bridge in a week, the Ukrainians must destroy it again soon after the repair is completed. And I imagine that's their goal. I hope from the bottom of my heart that they have some Storm Shadows stocks reserved for these bridges in crimea
Yup.
That is: the railway bridge. Rebuilding the two road bridges is going to take 'months'.
AFAIK, S-200s deployed as ballistic missiles are not precise enough for that job.
Yes, Taurus or JASSM.
Or hit it while the work is still going on. Russian engineering is a legitimate target.
thank you very much for the update and the background info.
Question: Arty and its ammo are the most crucial "tools of the trade" for the UAF, no doubt. However, considering the limitations of the platforms (both by weight and electronics) wouldn't be the F-16 a significant improvement of the PSU's capabilities? Even a dozen of them (I think this number was rumored) would/could double the launch platforms for the Storm Shadows and as they can launch the HARMs as well. It could be easier to organize the missions too according to the possible targets.
I don't think they would change the tide of the war, but the aerial warfare perhaps could be more effective with them.
F-16s aren't compatible with Storm Shadows.
Indeed, at 1,300kg apiece, SS' might be too heavy even for their inboard underwing pylons.
Moreover, I doubt any F-16 could accelerate to 1,200km/h (plus) if loaded with two SS and underway at a very low altitutde....
Essentially, F-16s would be useful to release MALDs and HARMs. But, more about this in the Part 2....
Just a lighthearted comment. I know SS means storm shadow but it gives mixed feelings given who the Ukrainians are fighting :)
"The ZSU used SS to kill an entire battalion of SS" would be a perfectly appropriate statement in this war :)
Indeed: I'm actually reluctant to use 'SS' as abbreviation for Storm Shadow. Doing so only when replying in hurry - and then because I've seen lots of others using this abbreviation.
Thank you (I was in a middle of a job and had no time to google the F-16 datasheet).
Many thanks for your work (and for bringing good news, indeed!).
Seems that we may expect a “series” about Air-to-ground warfare, and I’m delighted with that.
And regarding “saints making miracles with words” (I.e.: plagiarism) is as old as the world is, and very difficult to solve (lawyers are expensive, so only expose the culprit to the public).
Judging from the photo of the Chongar railway bridge, it seems that the missile hit a few meters before the bridge, on solid ground.
This means a quick repair is possible, because there seems to be no structural damage on the bridge per se?
Well, repairing the fundament is going to take a few days.
As said, my assessment is: 'about one week'.
According to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6EJ5m9xpXQ that is the picture from the other side of the bridge and the bridge got hit two times. The other hit was more severe. Let's hope this is true but satelite images normally lie less than Russian pictures.
Thanks Tom! Ukraine is also back to “striking” Moscow with drones. Do you have any insight into them? And yet, while I understand the wow effect of striking “targets” in Moscow (and that priobably we are talking about prototypes and flight tests ) , I don’t understand why Ukraine is not going after some more flammable targets like refineries or chemical plants
Several were hit during the past month, but next to no strong fires or blasts followed, except in the occupied territories (where something heavier could have been used). Either the drones are too light for serious damage, or the sites are protected with AD.
Yep, the ones near Ukraine were protected. But there are refineries closer to Moscow which I guess will be much less protected. Or they can hit some powder/ammo production facility (the forest fires several months ago near Ekaterinburg caused a lot of panic after engulfing several powder sites) or an ammo depo of which there are plenty across Russia and I guess the locations are the same as in the good days of the Soviet Union.
Ammo depots should have thick walls while the Ukrainian drones are too light.
But a lightweight roof designed to send any blast upward so drones are useful.
Hitting skycrapers in the middle of Moscows key district is doing more damage to Putins credibility than hitting depots somewhere. If the Ukrainians want to win the peace, Putin must leave and that's what this attacks are for. Because Putin promised them of making them great again and with those attacks he gets proven, that he didn't.
So why keep Putin as president? - in 6,5 month there is the first round of Russian elections going on. The home front is more important for him than Ukraine. So that is a sober distraction + to prevent that from happening he needs to pull out air defence units from Ukraine.
To my mind: Hopefully they are hitting the same skyscraper for the third time.
I am not holding my breath to see Putin voted out. Hitting a chemical facility here, a refinery there or an ammo factory (which are not that fortified) in Tula (for example) and forcing the nearby population to evacuate briefly will do much more damage to Putin’s credibility that poking a hole in a high-rise (yeah we shot down the drone but it exploded upon contact). And if there is also some economic impact ...
He won't be, but it is trouble. Factories have normally roofs and this drones I guess will penetrate it but won't cause an explosion inside.
Furthermore it has an economic impact, cause all that fency stuff is insured and insurance companies are normally not Russian. That will raise the premiums. Additionally, if they have to stop air traffic at Moscow airport, it creates a factor of unsecurity which foreign investors won't ignore, what they can do with the moral apsect.
"Sure, in comparison, the latest strike on the Krim/Kerch Bridge (...) was not as successful as it appeared on the first sight: knocked out ‘just’ the road part of the construction."
But, isn't that the point? Leaving the Kerch railway intact so the Ruzzians keep pouring stuff into Crimea, AND ONLY THEN cutting off the Chongar railway bridges so that the stuff remains stuck in Crimea?
Don't think so: at war, bridges are either dropped, or they are not dropped. Don't know anybody seriously considering (mis)using attacks on them for any other purposes but to blow them up.
Claimed to be photos showing damage to the rail part of the Kerch bridge. I do not see it myself but maybe somebody with more experience of studying such photos?
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/38237
Or maybe I am just time wasting
Larger photo here, I still do not see rail damage
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1686093118519889920?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Here is another photo claiming to show rail damage, upper left corner.
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/38347
It's obvious: the 'wider' bridge - is the road bridge. This is undergoing repairs (needs an entirely new section).
The railway bridge = not damaged.
'Doesn't matter', though, as long as the Chongar Railway Bridge is out of service.
Thank you so very much. How very nice to see you gleeful.
Good article, i would personally would like to see SS and Kinzhal technical details, as far as they are available.
What a wonderful and detailed column, yet again, Tom. I'm in awe of your sources and your ability to see "the big picture."
Thanks Tom very good article looking forward to part II
Thank you. When you put numbers of targets in the air... that put things in perspective!
Looking forward to the next article.
Slow but steady wins the race. thanks for the write up and looking forward to part 2.