Sep 14, 2023·edited Sep 14, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Very interesting read, excited for the rest. If the yevpatoria area has 2 S-400 batteries is it possible the other four locations(Sevastopol, Feodosia, Dzhankoi) have 2 as well or its simply because of its proximity to saki air base and other crucial installations that requires an extra battery? 4-8 S-400 batteries to cover Crimea is a good number, hope the Ukrainian military takes them all out.
Mind: even 'two direct hits on one S-400 system' aren't enough to completely disable the SAM-site/battalion in question. Because of 'redundant' radars, much more would be necessary to knock just one of them out.
But.... well... for reasons I do not feel free to discuss in the open, it's 'enough' to cause a major disruption. Even if 'just of temporary nature'.
The question is also, if ZSU is able to hit S-400, why VSFR is not able to hit Patriots? Maybe because ZSU plays hide and seek game while overconfident VSFR just thinks their S-400 cannot be hit so they do not move them?
There are certain weaknesses in the Russian IADS which I do not feel at free to discuss in the open. Sufficient to say: while considered 'mobile', systems like S-400 aren't really 'very mobile'. At least not in sense of 'can shoot while on move or stop and open fire at short notice'.
It's definitely an interesting situation with their air defenses in Crimea. That first site was smashed some 3 weeks ago. Must expect that they didn't destroy the whole site with that Neptune strike, yet there must have been quite a hole left in their AD bubble it enabled the massive strike on the Sevastopol dry dock. A layman like me would think that 3 weeks is sufficient time to get it back online, unless they had some radars fried as well.
Let's not forget there was a commando landing nearby, they hopefuly achieved something else beside planting the flag there. And some days later GUR operatives managed to take control of the oil rigs.
Anyway your parting question at the end of the article still stands, it's a great series and looking forward to the next installment. Thanks Tom!
Elevation may be involved. The S400 is placed on a high ground many meters above the sea level, and at some distance from the seashore cliffs. If the attacking missiles fly low over the sea, the cliffs will stand in the way of the radio waves and the radar will not see anything till the missiles raise above the cliffs in close proximity to the S400 site. Which is already too late to fire the interceptor missiles.
Question: the map shows 4 S-400 systems in the Crimea, of which two sites has been attacked and at least partially damaged in a month. On the different OSINT geolocated pictures two launcher position was damaged at Mayak and now maybe another two launchers at Yevpatoriya. Do we have any info about how many launchers they actually had in the Crimea?
Thank you! probably not much more if any, mainly after it was easier to find a day when Vnukovo was closed than when it was opertional.
There are videos about the detonations (thankfully Russians even now don't have a clue about OSINT), it seems at least four big blasts beside two or three smaller ones which might have been missed the juicy targets.
Also: do you have any info about the Ukrainian drone programs? In case of naval-drones they showed a pretty fast evolution course and production of Shahed-like ones doesn't looks too complicated.
I think a part of the reason for greater evolution of naval drones is they had a number of small boat builders before the war that know how to build in at least small series (which seems to be a problem in a number of industries in Ukraine, - great prototypes but over the years something's always botched when they need to start serial production).
The guidance system can probably be contracted out. But also remember how ineffective first generation was, then they quickly managed to produce USVs capable of damaging the Kerch bridge even. Also think some programmes are directly under SBU the others under GRU, who probably can easily cut through the red tape when needed if someone competent is put to running the show.
As far as I know, many smaller IT companies concur about getting their drone programs financed. Never heard of SBU or GUR programs. There are many programmers who do something in ZSU as well, probably also related to drones.
This does not get much attention considering Elon has already been accused once of switching off Starlink in 2022 to help the Russians
A large-scale failure in Starlink occurred during the ship yard attack on Crimea
On the night of September 12-13, analysts at the NetBlocks platform recorded a strong international failure in the operation of satellite Internet from SpaceX."
I heard on a podcast recently that Musk transferred some of the satellites to the US military so that he wouldn’t be involved with the war. So either the Ukrainians still had satellite access or they figured out a way to work without it.
Neither Storm Shadows nor Neptun missiles use Starlink.
Storm Shadows have pre-loaded elevation map and rely on image recognition of landscape features to navigate.
There is next to no information about Neptuns, but they are said to be based on older Soviet missiles. Probably also some kind of GPS/GLONASS + image recognition or aiming at the source of radar or heat radiation. Using some markers previously placed be the guerillas is also possible.
The Russians are said to have means of suppressing space satellite signals, thus the yesterday's Starlink failures could have been caused by their "star wars" tech.
I think even if he knows or have good good guess, Tom will not provide any information, that could help Russians, before it get reviled It`s pretty annoying for us observers, but it`s pretty logical. Information from sources like Visegrad that claims they send 2 drones and 2 Neptune rockets seem crazy, because such thing should not work.
I wonder how Israeli Air Force can repeately work inside syrian airspace to intercept weapons supply for the Hezbollah when it is supposed to be a no go? Especially in the south around Damascus, where the air defense should be the strongest?
The Israeli air force is next to never flying inside the Syrian airspace (at least its manned aircraft are rarely venturing there: UAVs are a different topic). It's shooting/releasing stand-off weapons from within the Lebanese airspace, from over the Mediterranean Sea, and from within the Jordanian airspace.
I dont doubt that, but it works, and apparently they hit what they want in most cases despite syrian AD ist shooting at "something". Bet the USAF could have done the same.
Oh, this happens everywhere, to some large or small extent
(from another link about the drone effort, it seems that Kiev is also suffering from its share of fraud, incompetence etc - but actual war tends to cut the bullshit quite effectively)
Very good that you continue this thread. I think we in general does not understand the air war of Ukraine, we still are thinking in terms of Fog Fights from WW1 and WW2. I also want to learn more of that Saintly bok buyer you wrote about. So keep up these more rambling threats.
Tom, thank you for continuing this interesting topic! I'm looking forward to the continuation
Ouch, that cliffhanger hurt! Nice article anyway!
Very interesting read, excited for the rest. If the yevpatoria area has 2 S-400 batteries is it possible the other four locations(Sevastopol, Feodosia, Dzhankoi) have 2 as well or its simply because of its proximity to saki air base and other crucial installations that requires an extra battery? 4-8 S-400 batteries to cover Crimea is a good number, hope the Ukrainian military takes them all out.
Mind: even 'two direct hits on one S-400 system' aren't enough to completely disable the SAM-site/battalion in question. Because of 'redundant' radars, much more would be necessary to knock just one of them out.
But.... well... for reasons I do not feel free to discuss in the open, it's 'enough' to cause a major disruption. Even if 'just of temporary nature'.
Okay gotcha, thank you!!
The question is also, if ZSU is able to hit S-400, why VSFR is not able to hit Patriots? Maybe because ZSU plays hide and seek game while overconfident VSFR just thinks their S-400 cannot be hit so they do not move them?
You are comparing apples and oranges :)
There are certain weaknesses in the Russian IADS which I do not feel at free to discuss in the open. Sufficient to say: while considered 'mobile', systems like S-400 aren't really 'very mobile'. At least not in sense of 'can shoot while on move or stop and open fire at short notice'.
It's definitely an interesting situation with their air defenses in Crimea. That first site was smashed some 3 weeks ago. Must expect that they didn't destroy the whole site with that Neptune strike, yet there must have been quite a hole left in their AD bubble it enabled the massive strike on the Sevastopol dry dock. A layman like me would think that 3 weeks is sufficient time to get it back online, unless they had some radars fried as well.
Let's not forget there was a commando landing nearby, they hopefuly achieved something else beside planting the flag there. And some days later GUR operatives managed to take control of the oil rigs.
Anyway your parting question at the end of the article still stands, it's a great series and looking forward to the next installment. Thanks Tom!
Elevation may be involved. The S400 is placed on a high ground many meters above the sea level, and at some distance from the seashore cliffs. If the attacking missiles fly low over the sea, the cliffs will stand in the way of the radio waves and the radar will not see anything till the missiles raise above the cliffs in close proximity to the S400 site. Which is already too late to fire the interceptor missiles.
Possibly, but not in Yevpatoria... That area is very, very flat (I've been there many times)
I think the above mentioned Tolkachev effect might have a lot to do with it
Thank you for the update!
Question: the map shows 4 S-400 systems in the Crimea, of which two sites has been attacked and at least partially damaged in a month. On the different OSINT geolocated pictures two launcher position was damaged at Mayak and now maybe another two launchers at Yevpatoriya. Do we have any info about how many launchers they actually had in the Crimea?
AFAIK, there were 40 S-400 launchers at the start of the war. No idea how many are around nowadays.
Thank you! probably not much more if any, mainly after it was easier to find a day when Vnukovo was closed than when it was opertional.
There are videos about the detonations (thankfully Russians even now don't have a clue about OSINT), it seems at least four big blasts beside two or three smaller ones which might have been missed the juicy targets.
Also: do you have any info about the Ukrainian drone programs? In case of naval-drones they showed a pretty fast evolution course and production of Shahed-like ones doesn't looks too complicated.
I think a part of the reason for greater evolution of naval drones is they had a number of small boat builders before the war that know how to build in at least small series (which seems to be a problem in a number of industries in Ukraine, - great prototypes but over the years something's always botched when they need to start serial production).
The guidance system can probably be contracted out. But also remember how ineffective first generation was, then they quickly managed to produce USVs capable of damaging the Kerch bridge even. Also think some programmes are directly under SBU the others under GRU, who probably can easily cut through the red tape when needed if someone competent is put to running the show.
For the troubles of their drone industry by chance I read this piece just today, think it helps explain some of the problems: https://kyivindependent.com/head-first-into-the-future-inside-the-race-to-win-the-drone-war-in-ukraine/
GUR sorry, not GRU
Thank you for the link, very interesting.
As far as I know, many smaller IT companies concur about getting their drone programs financed. Never heard of SBU or GUR programs. There are many programmers who do something in ZSU as well, probably also related to drones.
For the GUR and SBU programs I've seen it mentioned in a New Lines Mag article about Ukrainian long range strikes here: https://newlinesmag.com/argument/ukraines-strikes-behind-enemy-lines-are-paying-off/
And I mixed it up a bit, specifically it was the Beaver drone mentioned it was built for the GUR, and Sea Baby USVs for SBU
Now can't wait to this "to be continued")))
This does not get much attention considering Elon has already been accused once of switching off Starlink in 2022 to help the Russians
A large-scale failure in Starlink occurred during the ship yard attack on Crimea
On the night of September 12-13, analysts at the NetBlocks platform recorded a strong international failure in the operation of satellite Internet from SpaceX."
https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1701755125600010328?s=52&t=c4Q4Sn31U0F4qVY-N_MtFw:eek:
Claims today that Ukraine destroys Russian air defense systems worth $1.2 bln in Yevpatoria on Crimea west coast with Neptunes
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-destroys-russian-air-defense-systems-1694682631.html
I heard on a podcast recently that Musk transferred some of the satellites to the US military so that he wouldn’t be involved with the war. So either the Ukrainians still had satellite access or they figured out a way to work without it.
The Journal podcast (Wall Street Journal), Tuesday Sept 12, around 16 minute mark.
Neither Storm Shadows nor Neptun missiles use Starlink.
Storm Shadows have pre-loaded elevation map and rely on image recognition of landscape features to navigate.
There is next to no information about Neptuns, but they are said to be based on older Soviet missiles. Probably also some kind of GPS/GLONASS + image recognition or aiming at the source of radar or heat radiation. Using some markers previously placed be the guerillas is also possible.
The Russians are said to have means of suppressing space satellite signals, thus the yesterday's Starlink failures could have been caused by their "star wars" tech.
That same podcast said that Russia has not been able to jam Starlink.
Common, not other part again :-( I just started reading and it ended with so many unanswered question.
I think even if he knows or have good good guess, Tom will not provide any information, that could help Russians, before it get reviled It`s pretty annoying for us observers, but it`s pretty logical. Information from sources like Visegrad that claims they send 2 drones and 2 Neptune rockets seem crazy, because such thing should not work.
Part of that was a reason for 'postponement' of Parts 3 and 4 of this feature.
I wonder how Israeli Air Force can repeately work inside syrian airspace to intercept weapons supply for the Hezbollah when it is supposed to be a no go? Especially in the south around Damascus, where the air defense should be the strongest?
The Israeli air force is next to never flying inside the Syrian airspace (at least its manned aircraft are rarely venturing there: UAVs are a different topic). It's shooting/releasing stand-off weapons from within the Lebanese airspace, from over the Mediterranean Sea, and from within the Jordanian airspace.
I dont doubt that, but it works, and apparently they hit what they want in most cases despite syrian AD ist shooting at "something". Bet the USAF could have done the same.
Couldn’t they they use this method to hit the Syrian AD if they wanted?
Israelis? They're hitting it all the time.
Dumb questions: how many of the current muscovite systems still suffer of the Tolkachev Effect?
That's a damn good question!
you know how to teaser...
Once again, thanks for your superb and extensively-researched articles. Best on the internet!
Oh, thanks a lot!
Interesting read. It might be that stories about ruzzian ability to link up air defence systems is an exaggeration.
Almaz reported (and get paid for) the capability , but no one tested it properly before this war.
Indeed, precisely something about 'linking' different elements of SAM-sites and then them into IADS - is the 'Achiles heel' of the entire system.
There is no testing like an actual war, to be honest...
Yes. But there is also a history of what is called in Russian language очковтирательство.
Oh, this happens everywhere, to some large or small extent
(from another link about the drone effort, it seems that Kiev is also suffering from its share of fraud, incompetence etc - but actual war tends to cut the bullshit quite effectively)
Link to part 2 links to part 1. FYI
And the text has "1x 92N6E (‘Grave Stone’)" while there are 4 of them on the S400 diagram.
Drew that diagram for the 1st Edition of the book Moscow's Game of Poker (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/moscows-game-of-poker-revised-edition-russian-military-intervention-in-syria-2015-2017.php), some 6-7 years ago. Didn't use it, though, because the configuration of S-400 SAM-sites there was different - at least in regards of early warning radars (they used old Soviet stuff from Assadist arsenals).
But, indeed, in Syria, they were deploying one 92N6E per 4 launchers.
Thx. Corrected.
Very good that you continue this thread. I think we in general does not understand the air war of Ukraine, we still are thinking in terms of Fog Fights from WW1 and WW2. I also want to learn more of that Saintly bok buyer you wrote about. So keep up these more rambling threats.
Thanks Tom