Hello everybody! To continue the story of how are Ukrainians deploying their Storm Shadows (and 15 SCALP-EG missiles supplied by France…. Hope, this didn’t prove too hard or too much for Mr. Macron and pooh li’l France….), and as next, let’s have a look at the Russian air defences.
Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Thanks. I was wondering why our planes, when looking at them from the ground, are conspicuously yellow and blue. Now I see that it definitely makes sense.
Thank you for this write up, I now have a better visual understanding of the amount(roughly) and placement of GBADS in the Southern occupied areas. I remember June last year Ukraine hit one radar called Podlyot-K1 somewhere in Kherson iirc. Also considering how less mobile the S-300 and S-400 systems(as well as radars connected to the BUKs and TORs) are, seems they would be very vulnerable to ATACMS considering the granularity and frequency of information provided by Western and Ukrainian Electronic reconnaissance. If you've given Western GMLRS rockets, why give the Russians a chance to adapt to intercepting Western guided rockets? Why not send ATACMS as well so you can thoroughly take out these GBADS before Russia even has a chance to adapt? There are alot of sites in Crimea and elsewhere with fairly static S-300/400 systems if I'm not mistaken. Otherwise thank you for this and looking forward to part 3.
Well, at least the four Russian S-400s systems deployed on the Crimea are well within the range of the Storm Shadow, just for example. They are 'no priority' - yet, though. This will be discussed in the 'Part 3'. ;-)
Hi Tom! Got a question, maybe you have an answer ;) why don't Ukrainians put HARMs on the trucks closer to the frontline, like they did with Brimstone? Would surely help with closer, more mobile SAM radars. Is the software/hardware integration problem or what? Or maybe ground launch loses most of the range?
Before blaming France & Macron I hope you realise that France like Italy for instance are not authorised by law to disclose the exact types and quantity of everything they are sending to Ukraine ? I understand it might be hard to grasp when you come from a culture bragging about every single nails sent there
Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
BS. I am from France and people here never say such thing.
The only excuse used by officials and fanboys is we should not give free intel to the Russians. A pathetic excuse nobody believes in anyway.
Meanwhile there are dozens of journalists and bloggers who keep tracks of all pledge delivery with precise numbers while officials brags about the exact numbers during public speech when they believe it makes them sound good.
Also your last sentence was hugely misplaced on the top of being disrespectful. French literally brag about everything even as they font do anything in international relations. Its a coping mechanic and a (quite stupid) strategy. Fact is, people are even straightforward about it in French.
For exemple the AMX-10 RC was a typical case : everybody realized those are not tanks but publicly pretend they were as we aim to pledge "tanks" before the Germans and before the Americans did. Now the same people are insulting Ukrainians in French for trying to use the AMX-10 RCs as ... tanks.
I'm from Austria. At most, we're sending humanitarian aid worth few dozens of million to Ukraine. 'Peanuts' in comparison to what others are doing - even more so considering Austrian oligarchy was (and partially still is) 'eyebrows-deep' into financing and enabling Putin....
From my POV, when it comes to foreign policy, Macron is one of dumbest (if not the dumbest) politicians anywhere, and that in the last 40-50 years. Except in Mali, he's screwed up (and is directly responsible) in Libya and Armenia, plus the Greco-Turkish conflict, and simply can't do one thing that's making any kind of sense.
...but, he's excelling in 'hiding behind Germany's skirt': instead of finding 3 trillion excuses for why not, France should be sending not only 'few Ceasars and AMX-10s, some shells and (literally) 15 SCALP-EGs', he could've sent dozens of LeClerc MBTs and Rafales - both of which are some of finest pieces of weapons systems available, no matter where.
Of course, he didn't - and is not going to do that.
Such 'acts' would be clever, while he's insistent on doing one stupidity after the other. Unsurprisingly, Macron is the last to come to any such ideas: rather happy everybody's focusing on blaming Scholz for 'not sending enough/more'.
Well, you need to sell our population that we are a neutral country even we are basically in a defensive alliance within the EU since 1995. Disturbing Austrians Sissi&Franzl romanticism regarding our history and our current status is simply the best way for our politicians to keep the majority of the population depolitisised.
....yup, just like we're housing the biggest NSA-base in Central Europe, and also the biggest 'gathering' of GRU and FSB-operatives in the EU.... all at the same time... :P
I swear, i`m thinking for weeks to write on my facebook(not like someone read it), about the stupidity of EU policy and Macron is main focus, since the start of the conflict he is doing stupid things, one after other.
I don’t know if the Russian bastards are reading you so as not to give them information, but in the center of Ukraine I began to hear our planes much less often. There are probably very few left. (((
Tom has already made it clear, but I'm keen to cheer up a fellow countryman. I'm not from Central Ukraine and last month I saw more of our planes than for the previous one and a half year.
War fatigue has set in for me and I no longer note the daily damage assessments the way I did previously, though the announcement of an air-defense system being disabled still catches my attention.
A few questions, if you have the time"
1) Approximately how many of each class (short, medium, long range) do you estimate the Russians to have in use/available for deployment?
2) What is their monthly production for new systems?
3) What NATO or other weapons will be required to significantly alter the situation, locally or across the battlefield? What would be required to achieve bomber-altitude air "access"?
Best Regards and thanks for another interesting morning update.
If you , by «significantly alter the situation» mean Ukraine returning to the 1991 year borders, then answer is all weapon stocks which are existed in Europe before 2022 and tripple this amount. All of it (rifles included, nukesexcluded) And this will be valid only for the begining of dullscale invasion on 24 February 2022.
As for today. One aquaintance of mine asked one of US military officer (officer didn`t reveal his ID), how much will cost offensive opperations in Ukraine if US military would be doing it and how would look like?
Answer - massive air and artillery strikes with all kinds of conventional weaponery from current frontlines to operational deep. And he didn`t exclude russian territory as a target. Then strike by armored units mixed with infantry.
As for money cost? About trillion us dollars. But for sure more than 8 hundred billions us dollars for the planes, tanks, artillery and ammunition.
Didn't again stopped the heroical russian navy in a very heroical and successful way a ukrainian boat drone by putting a fully manned warship in its way? Like they so with bridges for storm shadows?
Finally, i was waiting two days for the second part and it`s still incomplete. Sir, how dare you not post it sooner, it`s like you don`t have time to do free articles in internet, but instead have a life and job.
Thank you Tom this is very interesting and informative, I learned something and it opened my eyes before when I read the UAF had taken out a Russian air defense unit I was very happy thinking the UAF was really hurting the Russians ( and it does hurt some) its not as much as I was hoping, I can see now that achieving air superiority is not as simple as many think
Same for me: The more I read Tom's essays, the more I understand the complexity and difficulty of the matter. Of course I'm thankful for this overload of reality - but sometimes I'm yearning for my naive old foolishness.
On your maps, it seems that many Pantsyr and Buks are quite close to the frontline. Aren't they close enough to be as seriously disrupted by Ukr. counter-battery fire, just as for Ruzz. artillery? I know reports of Ruzz. losses regularly include such AD systems, but in case these are not taking as heavy a toll as their artillery, why is that?
Thanks. I was wondering why our planes, when looking at them from the ground, are conspicuously yellow and blue. Now I see that it definitely makes sense.
I've heard it called "full anti-Mykola camouflage" Mykola being an overeager bumpkin with a MANPAD.
but why are the Russian planes not painted ?
Very insightful! Thank you!
Soviet and post-Soviet aircraft IFF systems is a pain itself...
Thank you for this write up, I now have a better visual understanding of the amount(roughly) and placement of GBADS in the Southern occupied areas. I remember June last year Ukraine hit one radar called Podlyot-K1 somewhere in Kherson iirc. Also considering how less mobile the S-300 and S-400 systems(as well as radars connected to the BUKs and TORs) are, seems they would be very vulnerable to ATACMS considering the granularity and frequency of information provided by Western and Ukrainian Electronic reconnaissance. If you've given Western GMLRS rockets, why give the Russians a chance to adapt to intercepting Western guided rockets? Why not send ATACMS as well so you can thoroughly take out these GBADS before Russia even has a chance to adapt? There are alot of sites in Crimea and elsewhere with fairly static S-300/400 systems if I'm not mistaken. Otherwise thank you for this and looking forward to part 3.
Well, at least the four Russian S-400s systems deployed on the Crimea are well within the range of the Storm Shadow, just for example. They are 'no priority' - yet, though. This will be discussed in the 'Part 3'. ;-)
Great looking forward to part 3.
Hi Tom! Got a question, maybe you have an answer ;) why don't Ukrainians put HARMs on the trucks closer to the frontline, like they did with Brimstone? Would surely help with closer, more mobile SAM radars. Is the software/hardware integration problem or what? Or maybe ground launch loses most of the range?
No idea, mate. I guess it's a combination of the number of rounds supplied (which is: too low) and the loss of range.
Before blaming France & Macron I hope you realise that France like Italy for instance are not authorised by law to disclose the exact types and quantity of everything they are sending to Ukraine ? I understand it might be hard to grasp when you come from a culture bragging about every single nails sent there
BS. I am from France and people here never say such thing.
The only excuse used by officials and fanboys is we should not give free intel to the Russians. A pathetic excuse nobody believes in anyway.
Meanwhile there are dozens of journalists and bloggers who keep tracks of all pledge delivery with precise numbers while officials brags about the exact numbers during public speech when they believe it makes them sound good.
Also your last sentence was hugely misplaced on the top of being disrespectful. French literally brag about everything even as they font do anything in international relations. Its a coping mechanic and a (quite stupid) strategy. Fact is, people are even straightforward about it in French.
For exemple the AMX-10 RC was a typical case : everybody realized those are not tanks but publicly pretend they were as we aim to pledge "tanks" before the Germans and before the Americans did. Now the same people are insulting Ukrainians in French for trying to use the AMX-10 RCs as ... tanks.
It's all about the paraître.
I'm from Austria. At most, we're sending humanitarian aid worth few dozens of million to Ukraine. 'Peanuts' in comparison to what others are doing - even more so considering Austrian oligarchy was (and partially still is) 'eyebrows-deep' into financing and enabling Putin....
From my POV, when it comes to foreign policy, Macron is one of dumbest (if not the dumbest) politicians anywhere, and that in the last 40-50 years. Except in Mali, he's screwed up (and is directly responsible) in Libya and Armenia, plus the Greco-Turkish conflict, and simply can't do one thing that's making any kind of sense.
...but, he's excelling in 'hiding behind Germany's skirt': instead of finding 3 trillion excuses for why not, France should be sending not only 'few Ceasars and AMX-10s, some shells and (literally) 15 SCALP-EGs', he could've sent dozens of LeClerc MBTs and Rafales - both of which are some of finest pieces of weapons systems available, no matter where.
Of course, he didn't - and is not going to do that.
Such 'acts' would be clever, while he's insistent on doing one stupidity after the other. Unsurprisingly, Macron is the last to come to any such ideas: rather happy everybody's focusing on blaming Scholz for 'not sending enough/more'.
Well, you need to sell our population that we are a neutral country even we are basically in a defensive alliance within the EU since 1995. Disturbing Austrians Sissi&Franzl romanticism regarding our history and our current status is simply the best way for our politicians to keep the majority of the population depolitisised.
....yup, just like we're housing the biggest NSA-base in Central Europe, and also the biggest 'gathering' of GRU and FSB-operatives in the EU.... all at the same time... :P
seriously, that are all jobs, and every job within this country is secure due to our politicians...
I swear, i`m thinking for weeks to write on my facebook(not like someone read it), about the stupidity of EU policy and Macron is main focus, since the start of the conflict he is doing stupid things, one after other.
If you want for more people to read it, write here.
I don’t know if the Russian bastards are reading you so as not to give them information, but in the center of Ukraine I began to hear our planes much less often. There are probably very few left. (((
NATO should give us the F-16 as soon as possible
There are two reasons for this:
- attrition (combat losses, accidents, overhauls necessary by intensive use) and
- they're not in central Ukraine.
Tom has already made it clear, but I'm keen to cheer up a fellow countryman. I'm not from Central Ukraine and last month I saw more of our planes than for the previous one and a half year.
Thank you Tom. I am all anticipation for the next part.
Hi, Tom! I have a question. If Ukraine lacks of planes capable to use Storm Shadow or AGM 88, is it possible to mount and fire them from UAVs?
Storm Shadow is one heavy baby, so UAV to carry it must be also a big one - much bigger than Bayraktars TB2 that Ukraine possesses.
It is possible, BUT:
- that would need big UAVs, of the kind Ukraine currently has none, and
- that would require complex interface, which in turn would be vulnerable to the Russian jamming (electronic warfare).
War fatigue has set in for me and I no longer note the daily damage assessments the way I did previously, though the announcement of an air-defense system being disabled still catches my attention.
A few questions, if you have the time"
1) Approximately how many of each class (short, medium, long range) do you estimate the Russians to have in use/available for deployment?
2) What is their monthly production for new systems?
3) What NATO or other weapons will be required to significantly alter the situation, locally or across the battlefield? What would be required to achieve bomber-altitude air "access"?
Best Regards and thanks for another interesting morning update.
If you , by «significantly alter the situation» mean Ukraine returning to the 1991 year borders, then answer is all weapon stocks which are existed in Europe before 2022 and tripple this amount. All of it (rifles included, nukesexcluded) And this will be valid only for the begining of dullscale invasion on 24 February 2022.
As for today. One aquaintance of mine asked one of US military officer (officer didn`t reveal his ID), how much will cost offensive opperations in Ukraine if US military would be doing it and how would look like?
Answer - massive air and artillery strikes with all kinds of conventional weaponery from current frontlines to operational deep. And he didn`t exclude russian territory as a target. Then strike by armored units mixed with infantry.
As for money cost? About trillion us dollars. But for sure more than 8 hundred billions us dollars for the planes, tanks, artillery and ammunition.
And for those who can translate from russian or use auto translate subs in Y-tube.
Interview with one of ukrainian generals (not Zaluzhniy).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHrgr1-b_DU
Didn't again stopped the heroical russian navy in a very heroical and successful way a ukrainian boat drone by putting a fully manned warship in its way? Like they so with bridges for storm shadows?
'No surprise' the German MOD concluded 'there's no need' to send any TAURUS missiles. to Ukraine... :rolleyes:
Finally, i was waiting two days for the second part and it`s still incomplete. Sir, how dare you not post it sooner, it`s like you don`t have time to do free articles in internet, but instead have a life and job.
Thank you Tom this is very interesting and informative, I learned something and it opened my eyes before when I read the UAF had taken out a Russian air defense unit I was very happy thinking the UAF was really hurting the Russians ( and it does hurt some) its not as much as I was hoping, I can see now that achieving air superiority is not as simple as many think
Same for me: The more I read Tom's essays, the more I understand the complexity and difficulty of the matter. Of course I'm thankful for this overload of reality - but sometimes I'm yearning for my naive old foolishness.
Thanks for this yet-another great explanation.
On your maps, it seems that many Pantsyr and Buks are quite close to the frontline. Aren't they close enough to be as seriously disrupted by Ukr. counter-battery fire, just as for Ruzz. artillery? I know reports of Ruzz. losses regularly include such AD systems, but in case these are not taking as heavy a toll as their artillery, why is that?