Chine has HQ-15 - they reversed engineered S-300 it and improved it. (Maybe with cooperation with Russian company Almaz-Antey, like they did they HQ-10).
You should take a careful look at the slow evolution of the western stuff. For example, the good old 'Tomahawk'. Or F16. Or practically _anything_.
It's always about replacing a thing or two and utilizing the new limits to squeeze in some new functions.
And only when the engineers has enough experience and the old stuff is finally out of steam is when it's time for pushing for a 'revolution' like F22 or F35.
That's what China does. They took the old Russian stuff (don't dream, Russia never, ever shared their newest stuff). It was reverse engineered, reconstructed, then subjected to an evolution like development. The development fuels the local industry (which is providing more and more developed components) and nurtures a group of qualified engineers who then can push the limits even further. Who can then push for 'revolution' when the time is ripe.
China is still decades behind the cutting edge western stuff, true. But they are already ahead of the slowly regressing Russian world - even if still not by a revolutionary step. But even that is not far away. By now, they have the engineers.
When that comes they still may not be able to catch up to the west. But the question is - is the 'west' itself able to catch up to the west?
China's electronics industry is orders of magnitude ahead of Russia's. Its not the 1980s anymore, the Soviet Union isnt around anymore. China is a manufacturing powerhouse with a solid consumer technology base that boosts their defence tech.
It does, there's been Western intel for about a decade pointing to Chinese AD radars having better performance than Russian ones even in large part because of Chinese boom in their electronics industry. China is technologically ahead of Russia even in military equipment. The only advantage Russia has is experience with building certain heavy military equipment, data on nuclear weapons and experimental Soviet military equipment. But China could steal it or get it from other post Soviet countries like Ukraine(at least before the 2022 invasion). Dont let the fact the Chinese dont always export products at the same quality level as the West get you into thinking Russia has anything on them.
Again, the latest Israeli attack on Iran--more political theater. Yes, there were casualties so the actions were a touch more than political, but the Israeli purpose allegedly was principally political. This in my perception is somewhat akin to gunboat diplomacy, but with firing a couple of shots across the bow.
While Iranian attacks are like massive bombardment, Israelis are like stings - not so big bangs, but the other side fells it hurts and understands what it means.
Fascinating and illuminating read. To answer your latest question. People can say it out of ignorance. But mostly because it is politically expedient for a lot of people. In this case including Israel. Who probably knew something of this, since they choose not to attack oil installations or similar. Rather low key that attack after all. And the claim victory.immediately. Thus not having to try to do serious damage.
But Tom.....the Israeli's did completely and utterly discombobulate the entirety to the Iranian Integrated Air Defense System. Of that there can be NO doubt.
Why??? Because BIBI said so....and when BIBI speaks....people stop listening.
I have to wonder if the IRGC kept theirs turned off and let the Iranian military bear the brunt of the hits. That would not surprise me, as the only other people the IRGC fears more than the Israelis is the Iranians(and minorities within Iran).
Keeping the army weak and not able to perform is more important than helping them. I suspect there is absolutely no coordination between the military and the IRGC. Also I suspect most of the internal IRGC has spent much of their careers being show pieces, intimidating locals and running a mafia operation with a focus on economic gain and control within Iran. That's not to say there are no dangerous and professional elements of the IRGC, but I suspect most of those are out of the country on missions.
Reports are that up to a 100 Israeli planes hit targets and made their way home. I suspect that if they really wanted to hurt Iran they could have taken out the power stations running Kharg Island, effectively stopping Iranian oil export for a period of time, without any long term damage or environmental issues causing a backlash in the West. Also limiting Iran's option to shut down the Persian Gulf.
You notice also that about a dozen security officials got ambushed and killed about the same time. I suspect that some of the insurgencies are going to take bites, while the Military and IRGC are occupied and likley are receiving a bit more cash and guns than before.
Another example: China right now doing more advanced space stuff than Russia.
Should I mention what did they started with?
Chine has HQ-15 - they reversed engineered S-300 it and improved it. (Maybe with cooperation with Russian company Almaz-Antey, like they did they HQ-10).
You should take a careful look at the slow evolution of the western stuff. For example, the good old 'Tomahawk'. Or F16. Or practically _anything_.
It's always about replacing a thing or two and utilizing the new limits to squeeze in some new functions.
And only when the engineers has enough experience and the old stuff is finally out of steam is when it's time for pushing for a 'revolution' like F22 or F35.
That's what China does. They took the old Russian stuff (don't dream, Russia never, ever shared their newest stuff). It was reverse engineered, reconstructed, then subjected to an evolution like development. The development fuels the local industry (which is providing more and more developed components) and nurtures a group of qualified engineers who then can push the limits even further. Who can then push for 'revolution' when the time is ripe.
China is still decades behind the cutting edge western stuff, true. But they are already ahead of the slowly regressing Russian world - even if still not by a revolutionary step. But even that is not far away. By now, they have the engineers.
When that comes they still may not be able to catch up to the west. But the question is - is the 'west' itself able to catch up to the west?
China's electronics industry is orders of magnitude ahead of Russia's. Its not the 1980s anymore, the Soviet Union isnt around anymore. China is a manufacturing powerhouse with a solid consumer technology base that boosts their defence tech.
It does, there's been Western intel for about a decade pointing to Chinese AD radars having better performance than Russian ones even in large part because of Chinese boom in their electronics industry. China is technologically ahead of Russia even in military equipment. The only advantage Russia has is experience with building certain heavy military equipment, data on nuclear weapons and experimental Soviet military equipment. But China could steal it or get it from other post Soviet countries like Ukraine(at least before the 2022 invasion). Dont let the fact the Chinese dont always export products at the same quality level as the West get you into thinking Russia has anything on them.
Fascinating read!!!
Good for you taking some time off! Hope you have a nice vacation!
Again, the latest Israeli attack on Iran--more political theater. Yes, there were casualties so the actions were a touch more than political, but the Israeli purpose allegedly was principally political. This in my perception is somewhat akin to gunboat diplomacy, but with firing a couple of shots across the bow.
While Iranian attacks are like massive bombardment, Israelis are like stings - not so big bangs, but the other side fells it hurts and understands what it means.
Thanks Tom, enjoy your off time.
There is a reason you are calling it soap opera episodes. What is that without supporting surprising drama.
Well, the opposite question would be “how come that none of F-15 were shot down? No major show offs of incomming missile’s intervention either.
That’s why I have asked the other day about “Unbelieveable easiness of flying to Iran comparison to Ukraine :-)
Because the Israelis were firing ALBMs from 75-90km within the Iraqi airspace, and thus well outside the range of the Iranian air defences.
Ok. So they do not deploy anything serious in Syria… Some US media reported that at least some airplanes penetrated Iranian aerospace.
Basically I am trying to figure how easy is to west to enable their friends- if they want to.
Without clear evidence, I'm not buying stories about any kind of Israeli jets flying over Iran.
UAVs: yes, perfectly possible.
Fascinating! And have a well deserved break… although Tom’s vacations usually coincide with some world crisis or other… 😜
Fascinating and illuminating read. To answer your latest question. People can say it out of ignorance. But mostly because it is politically expedient for a lot of people. In this case including Israel. Who probably knew something of this, since they choose not to attack oil installations or similar. Rather low key that attack after all. And the claim victory.immediately. Thus not having to try to do serious damage.
That the Russians wouldn’t work with the Iranians shows they really are dumber than stumps.
Enjoy your vacations Tom, thanks for this.
Great write up Tom. I wonder as well. From whats been available online, its hard to believe this as well.
But Tom.....the Israeli's did completely and utterly discombobulate the entirety to the Iranian Integrated Air Defense System. Of that there can be NO doubt.
Why??? Because BIBI said so....and when BIBI speaks....people stop listening.
:o)
Deconflicting two IADS and four flying branches must be a nightmare. And how many different IFF systems in operation.
I have to wonder if the IRGC kept theirs turned off and let the Iranian military bear the brunt of the hits. That would not surprise me, as the only other people the IRGC fears more than the Israelis is the Iranians(and minorities within Iran).
Keeping the army weak and not able to perform is more important than helping them. I suspect there is absolutely no coordination between the military and the IRGC. Also I suspect most of the internal IRGC has spent much of their careers being show pieces, intimidating locals and running a mafia operation with a focus on economic gain and control within Iran. That's not to say there are no dangerous and professional elements of the IRGC, but I suspect most of those are out of the country on missions.
Reports are that up to a 100 Israeli planes hit targets and made their way home. I suspect that if they really wanted to hurt Iran they could have taken out the power stations running Kharg Island, effectively stopping Iranian oil export for a period of time, without any long term damage or environmental issues causing a backlash in the West. Also limiting Iran's option to shut down the Persian Gulf.
You notice also that about a dozen security officials got ambushed and killed about the same time. I suspect that some of the insurgencies are going to take bites, while the Military and IRGC are occupied and likley are receiving a bit more cash and guns than before.
So, China is not only developing itself but also helping US enemies. Interesting.