The only reason why the Ukrainian troops are not abandoning a severely degraded salient - is maybe related to the fact that their fortified defense Line ín the Sumi region rear area is not ready - this would mean again exchanging life of 4-6k troops to gain some time - if this is not the main driver but only Politics where then what can we say?
Spot on - my problem is that albeit slowly but Russian operative level is adapting - when they have some best practices they apply quite consistent way (I mean pareto consistent) - this is an area where Ukrainian army is lagging behind - way too many patching ad-hoc decisions on theatre command level
Of course they will! Why shouldn't they? They have concentrated army and logistics there, what could be the reason to stop? It's okay. There would be some more territory losses, but they don't matter.
What matters is the ratio of losses, and most important is the ratio of Ukrainian losses. Whole strategy should be targeting limiting Ukrainian human losses and replacing them with economic losses - spending lots of resources on force multipliers like fortified defence lines, protected logistics and so on.
No amount of fortified positions can stop Russians. What they could do is slow them down and force them to expend a lot more resources to kill a bit less Ukrainians. The grand strategy is to survive until Putin dies from natural causes, years down the line.
Now you mention it, I suppose its obvious they will try, but it should as you say be painful for them due to force multipliers, which Ukraine has no doubt prepared due to the obviously inevitable fall of the Kursk salient (gulp.......)
Well, obviously! Right from the start of the enterprise it was absolutely obvious that no matter how the things go, eventually Ukrainian forces would have to retreat and set up better defense line in a less vulnerable position. Even if that was not in the plans, the inevitable chaotic situation of any war mean that any force should be ready for sudden retreat and establishing a new defensive line.
It's not even military 101, it's the very basics. Even Russians know and implement it. First thing you do is establish the reserve and fall-back defensive lines, especially if you can do it where currently there is no actual fighting. Even a preschooler would plan and implement second and third lines of defensive position by that time in the operation.
It is most obvious and self-evident truth that defensive positions were planned, ordered to be built, built and checked. Likely multiple times, for you at first establish major points of defense and then revise and improve upon them multiple times if you have time. There is absolutely zero chance that Ukrainians didn't do it. Zero. It is absolutely done and I can't wait till we'll see on social networks praises for the newly built defensive lines.
It is often necessary when population evaluates the war as presented by media in terms of winning or losing grounds. Similarly, any surrender of territories lead to rating losses and morale losses. And Zelensky still worries about ratings. Oh, well.
On the Starlink question, I read a news story about Eutelsat ‘stepping up’ (see below). Do you think this is feasible as a Starlink replacement or actually a completely different capability that media has in implied is equivalent?
Eutelsat has more than 630 satellites moving in low-Earth orbit around the world, the company said, that offer the “same capacities” as Starlink for coverage and response time.
Eutelsat’s low-Earth satellites are already deployed in Ukraine to support “government and institutional communications,” the company said.
Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke told Bloomberg they would need a couple of months to supply 40,000 military-grade and standard terminals to Ukraine.
The company is also considering using its 35 geostationary satellites to provide “additional capacity” over Ukraine and “stronger resilience” for the country’s connectivity.
Eutelsat (oneweb really) has around 10% of Starlink's number of satellites. It does not offer same capacities unless you massage numbers very very hard. It's a troublesome enterprise. I would be sceptical about any claims - it has a history of claims not followed by results.
AFAIK, it's foremost the capacity that's fundamentaly different, and even the Eutelsat couldn't offer the similar quality of service before around 2030 or so.
As said: after three years of massive investment into the StarLink, Ukraine is a 'prisoner' of that system.
When you get right down to it, there has been no ‘lasting and stable peace’ in Syria since the British (i.e. Commonwealth) troops conquered the area in late 1918. /// If you look into it, it was never there. In 1860, Muslims in Syria massacred Christians. Thousands were killed, hundreds were sent into slavery to the Bedouins. But to understand this, we must get rid of the leftist fixation on the hated "imperialists", Israelis, etc.
Yeah, and in between of that, you've just 'forgotten' that Syria was a Sanjak in the Ottoman Empire (including Palestine), and thus the genocide on the Muslim population in the Ottoman-conquered parts of Europe...
Bottom line, cannot but recommend a suitable read:
What do you mean? If Europe from the Balkans to Mariupol was a part of the Ottoman Empire, then slaughtering millions of local Muslims is not worth mention?
Ha, I didn't expect such a simple leak of the topic. It is clear that everything happened in different places. Unlike you, I do not take sides, I remind you that there has never been peace in Syria. The fairy tale that it all began in the 20th century is convenient for your leftist mythology about the flourishing Ottoman Empire destroyed by Europeans, but does not correspond to reality. My eyes were popping out of my head when I once read your, mmm, very strange story about the economically prosperous Ottoman Empire before the First World War. In Russian, there is an author Fomenko, who created a delirious, absolutely unscientific alternative history of the world. This was from the same area. In general, you know, I have been reading you since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, I really liked your reviews (and they are still not bad). When you mentioned that you hold very leftist views, I immediately thought with a grin: "Surely he hates Israel." And I was stunned, how right on target, when I saw what you did after the absolutely unprecedented, incredibly cruel Palestinian terrorist attack with the slaughter of everyone in a row, right down to infants: one post about how terrorism is bad, followed by 100 posts justifying it and pouring all kinds of slander on Israel. It's a pity, because now I treat your texts about Ukraine with a certain caution. A person can be different on different topics. Somewhere very biased (like you with Israel), somewhere objective (like you probably are with Ukraine). But there is always a possibility that such nature is still sinful at least a little in all topics.
Thanks for the update. Per the US help, is there any system that the Europans can't try to give (even if lower quality) an ersatz to? On the positive side, it seems that Trump is the only force to move the unmovable, ie the EU leadership 🙄 i hope this time with more biting and less barking.
I don't think that Starlink is so crucial for the ZSU. The Ukrainian army uses Kymeta, an American-based company. Perhaps some difficulties will come if Musk bans Ukraine, but communication will work. If Kymeta is the satellite communications company, then Teltonika provides cell technology communications, and it's based in Europe. Teltonika can help military units in 20-40 km depth in the Ukranian territory.
Also, it should be noted, Andriy Biletsky in the interview said the 3rd Assault Brigade is using not only Starlink but some different channels of communication. He also admitted that other units are lazy and don't want to duplicate Starlink.
I did a little searching and found a credible source for me that describes the events in Syria quite differently than you do and documents it with photos and videos. And I certainly didn't find the photos to be from 2012, as you write. I quote in translation: The hell of civil war has been fully renewed in Syria.
HTS field fighters still believe that Syria should follow the path of a strictly Muslim state with strict Sharia law. And they are not happy with the policies of the Golani leader, who has reverted to his civilian name, Ahmad ash-Sharaa, shed his camouflage and donned a quidditch mask, and has begun to negotiate with politicians from many countries, including the EU, pushing for a multi-ethnic and multi-religious concept of a new Syria.
His old comrades-in-arms, on the other hand, think that strict Sharia law should be introduced, that women should be ordered to cover themselves and crawl into their houses and not stick their noses out, and that they do not like the celebration of Christian and Jewish festivals or other immoral innovations. Immediately after Golani came to power, unrest began to bubble up in Syria between populations of different religions and nationalities. And neighbouring states and world powers are also heating up their disgusting political soup.
This week, the unrest has escalated into massive armed clashes in which former HTS fighters, who have since been assigned to the police, have gone to quell protests in the Alawite regions in the west, in the mountains and on the Mediterranean coast. They immediately started shooting pretty brutally with live ammunition, and were joined by the most notorious foreign jihadists from Central Asia, including Chinese Uighurs (these are the good Uighurs who are so hurt by Communist China and just want to keep their traditions). Large groups of gunmen are raiding 'infidel dog' Alawite villages, executing men and raping women. Local observers estimate the death toll at 300-500 in two days, mostly men. The internet is awash with videos of jihadists first torturing the men, then letting them crawl to the execution site, where they shoot dozens of them and brag about it all on the internet.
Only the villagers in the vicinity of the Russian military bases of Tartus and Hmeimim are a bit lucky; the Russian command has allowed several thousand people to take refuge in the safe territory of the military bases. But there are no facilities for them there, although they have enough water and food for a few days.
Sure. Both Czechs at that base, and the Russians there - either those that were mass-murdering Syrian 'terrorists' for nearly a decade, or their dependants - are the best source for accurate and dependable information on developments in Syria. And, as everybody knows: all the Syrians are crazy head-choppers.
...only Assadists not, of course.
The only thing I'm surprised about is one: how comes none of dependable and authoritative sources in question can say a word about the Russian FSB 'allowing' dozens of thousands of Russian Muslims to go joining the Daesh, back in 2012-2015 (all in the name of 'keeping Olympic games in Sochi safe', of course)?
I'm not surprised, though, this came exactly a week after the Uygurs of the former HTS have issued a call for world-wide support, because they're fighting the Chinese communist regime...
You are taking things out of context. Russia is only mentioned at the end and has nothing to do with the essence of the message. I don't really understand why you're picking on those three sentences at the end.
Most likely, the lady in question is not getting her information from a Russian source either. And do you know that most Czechs are, on the contrary, very anti-Russian? And I didn't put it here with the idea that it must be the whole truth, but as a different version of events than the one you present. And you may well be right. I don't know. I am looking for the truth and I am interested in where the truth is. But you did not respond to my previous post, which would have helped me find the truth, where I asked how you came to know that the videos were from 2012.
Because I've seen exactly the same kind of rubbish when some nun there in one of Christian monasteries of western Syria was claiming that 'Nusra is massacring Christians', back in 2012.
Until today, about 95% of people who have seen her 'eyewitness accounts' are firmly convinced she's right. Primarily because she's a Christian nun (and 'white').
While, actually, it was Assadists that were massacring thousands of Sunnis, and she was serving Assad and spreading PRBS.
Of course, as somebody who's traveled all over Syria for years, and then followed the war in Syria, day-in-day out, with help of first-hand contacts, and all other available sources: who am I to say?
The answer is clear: nobody.
Even more for such, far more obvious reasons like: if somebody - whether Russian or working for the Russians (but, of course, in no way related to them) - would go claiming that Ukrainians are massacring women and children around Donbas, then, of course, that's lies. But, if somebody who is working for the Russians claims the 'Nusra Jihadists in Syria are massacring civilians', that's automatic truth. Even more so because 'most' of the Czechs are anti-Russian, which means that all of them are anti-Russian, and would never lie in favour of the Russians, especially not if paid to do so.
Bottom line: sorry, I'm fed up (to death) of jumping to conclusions (and then also getting excited about that, too). I first want to see evidence from somebody who isn't working at the Hmeymim AB, nor (gauging by content of her FB-account), an outspoken Dumpfist.
Otherwise, the trusted Politika Strany has been reporting similar things for me. here: https://t.me/stranaua/188453?single Time will tell who is right.
Yes, and back in 2016, the same trusted Politika Strany was reporting about 'USA buying arms for terrorists' - in Bulgaria, in Serbia etc. And that the USA are delivering these arms to 'Nusra'.
...ironically, the USA were buying arms from Bulgaria and Serbia - and delivering them to 'terrorists' - but those of the PKK.
Come on: give me something better but a sensationalist hungry media jumping for a FB-post by an outspoken Dumpfist (from Czechia, sure, but still: a Dumpfist).
Maybe they were right, maybe they weren't. I don't know. Nobody's infallible. But I well remember some Sarcastosaurus claiming about two years ago how the Ukrainians attacked and destroyed a bridge in Crimea and the truth was that it was just smoke masking by the Russians. And then he didn't even properly admit he made a mistake let alone apologize to the readers and just accused the rest of them of being mean to him.
"The only thing I'm surprised about is one: how comes none of dependable and authoritative sources in question can say a word about the Russian FSB 'allowing' dozens of thousands of Russian Muslims to go joining the Daesh, back in 2012-2015 (all in the name of 'keeping Olympic games in Sochi safe', of course)?"
They followed suit the best practices of Arab countries which let dozens of thousands of crazy jihadists to go to Afganistan to fight the Soviets back in 80s. And do not forget that hundreds of jihadist scum came to Daesh from EU and even US.
As per reasons for FSB - yes, safety of Sochi was a priority. You perfectly know that for the Russian rulers the show off for the West is of ultimate importance. Sochi Olympics were supposed to show the achievments of Putin-ruled Russia, but the shining of Olympics was immediately offset by Maidan in Kiev. This coup financed from abroad (now we know it for sure since a brave guy Elon Musk revealed all the "deeds" of USAID "faggots") became especially hated by Russian authorities for spoiling image of Olympics.
On second thought, I find it pretty smart from FSB to force jihadists from Russia to Daesh. Instead of catching them in vain in mountains of Caucasus or after acts of terror in Russian cites, FSB let them to Daesh, just to be later destroyed en masse by brave Syrian and Iraqi goverment forces, Shia paramilitaries, Russian army and US airforce/SOF.
Good to know it was Arab countries only... the 50,000 Russians shipped to Iraq and Syria by the FSB do not matter, then. Even more so considering the mass of them were no 'Jihadists', not even 'Islamists': just Muslims. Every decent white Christian knows the latter are no human beings. People renowned as peaceful, tolerant, and pluralists - like Zionists, just for example - know even better...
...and yes, it was all in the name of 'keeping the Olympic games in Sochi safe': no problem if Christians are doing such things - especially because it was the CIA that toppled a Russian puppet in Kyiv: as is well known - particularly since 24 February 2022 - Ukrainians would never come to the idea to do so on their own.
Tom, commone, you perfectly know that lion's share of those 50K were "ready-to-act" jihadists, mainly from Caucasus. Just 50k out of 20+mln Russian Muslims. This is to indicate that it was not islamophobia but surgery to get rid of potential terrorists. And they were not forced out, they were given opportunity to go abroad (prone to wahhabi things people usually under certain governance in Russia and restricted from going abroad). They went abroad via Turkey, with final destination Daesh camps in Iraq. They went there deliberately otherwise could have stayed in Turkey or go to EU as "victims of cruel regime".
As per RU puppet in Kiev - he was never one but after Maidan. Yanukovich was a classical post-Soviet mafiosi taking power. He was rather popular for ability in finding certain compromises. As a person with a past criminal background, he was flexible. Hand on heart, if you ask about it most of commone Ukranians, they would be happy to return in pre-Maidan times.
Good to hear you know every single one of the 50,000. I do not.
BTW, the idea was not even new: the FSB simply copy-pasted Q Mukhbarat's Jihad-Import-Export scheme...
Ah yes, and: the only ones 'fleeing' to the EU as victims of cruel regime' - were Assadists. That's why so many of them were arrested, prosecuted and sentences here.
"Good to hear you know every single one of the 50,000. I do not." No need to know, a pure logic: if one deliberately joins Daesh, how could you label him?)
"BTW, the idea was not even new: the FSB simply copy-pasted Q Mukhbarat's Jihad-Import-Export scheme." I indicated it above. However, the main supplier of jihadists to Afganistan were not Q guys but Saudis.
"Ah yes, and: the only ones 'fleeing' to the EU as victims of cruel regime' - were Assadists" . Any sources to confim? Personally, never heard of Alawites stabbing and exploding anyone in EU.
Since tbe blog is sarcastic, need to send a little quest to Tom on absolutely horrible but matching the subject of discussion case about Assadists presumably doing crime in EU.
A young woman from the family of Syrian refugees was killed by relatives for being too "Western" in Holland. An interrogation then: was the family from Assadist side or from other camp of "freedom fighters"?
Despite whatever medelling the details of which i am not bothered about- big picture is: The USA tried to prevent the Maidan revolution which was ultimately grass roots driven, they tried to prevent the collapse of the USSR, BOTH Biden and Trump administrations have tried to prevent the collapse of Russia in their own ways. Tom is right. The Russian will to rule the eastern side of Europe must be broken. They have to stop *wanting* this. Will this solve all of Europe's problems? Not in the slightest. But I absolutely agree with him that this is the first thing that must be got out of the way before progress on other things can be made.
How do you square the anti woman sentiment you wrote about with the track record in areas under HTS rule prior to the fall of Assad?
I ask because all the reports I've seen suggest pragmatic leadership rather than fundamentalist, and that in one of the most conservative areas of Syria.
Israel, Iran, the US and Russia are all keen on destabilising the Sharaa government, for their own purposes, and seem to be actively working to foment strife.
They took "best practices" from the previous owners by bombing with hand-made bombs civilian villages from the hight altitude. But they do it, no doubts, in moderate, almost-democratic manner.)
The fact they were 'bombing with hand-made bombs' is why one can see trails of unguided rockets streaking away from that Mi-25 on the still I've posted?
I mean: I know you otherwise as a sane and sober person, with quite some analytical skill.
How comes you do not wonder, not for a second - this all is coming
- a week after the above mentioned meeting of top IRGC-QF and Assadist thugs;
- a week after the ex-Nusra/HTS-Uygurs demanded 'the World' to support them in their struggle against the Communist regime in the PRC; and
- a few days since the gov in Damascus began demanding reparations from Russia (for all the damage its years-long, systematic and intentional bombardment of civilians has caused) as a 'confidence-building' measure?
....or, would you like to say, you're 100000% confident we're simply back to - just for example - the times of September-October-November 2015, and in no way would Moscow ever, ever, ever come to the idea to stage some kind of maskirovka in favour of its Assadist friends?
I see no condratictions though. No doubts, former assadists elite want some power back, Iranian and Russian inteference is plausible but this does not contradict the fact that Syria "insected" by thousands of medieval Barbarians which do not care about orders of CIA asset Julani. Nowdays Syria reminds me pre-Taliban Afganistan of early 90s after pro-Soviet regime collapse.
Sad to admit, but the only way for Syrian minorities to survive is to get their territories desintegrated from Syria. Alternatively they will face the fate of Iraqi Christians - total exodus with partial holocaust.
Many ME countries have weird freaky borders (Syria, Iraq), now it's a good chance to make out the century back mistake of Entante.
“The usual DISCLAIMER: please mind that you’re reading the following blasphemies at your own discretion. It was not yet confirmed by clinical studies, but reports are indicating that the reading of this blog is causing feverish outbursts of upsetia, severe haterdia accompanied by headaches, acute moronia, cases of racistia resulting in sleepless nights, chauvinistia with big purulent pimples, trollia acuta accompanied by severe diarrhea, and few other, infectious social media diseases.”
You are too late! I have been exhibiting all of these symptoms long since, thanks to reading your posts herein on Substack and on your F@rcebook account (the “farce,” however is not due to you, but due to you and me, in other circumstances, being Zucked once too often).
The Syrian hoopla:
-----------------------------
I don’t recall seeing much additional information provided by the MSM lately, which I pretty much avoid habitually, but do you know how that impending tragedy of the underground prison with its so called almost impenetrable security system worked out? Were the “victorious” forces able to break into the prison and relieve those prisoners who otherwise would have died of thirst and starvation?
In addition to the other defects in the U.S. intelligence system for protecting classified information from unauthorized disclosure, I perceive that part of the problem is that the U.S. does not have an Official Secrets Act such as exists in the United Kingdom. Just saying ….
Something on Trump and MAGAfying the entire Republican Party
I don’t know if this is true, but it suggests why the entire Republican political representation in the Congress (House & Senate) is going along with Trump-ismo lock, stock, and barrel.
There's no Republican Party in the US anymore. A MAGA Party took its place (and misuses its name). Perhaps republicans will reappear someday, but it isn't going to be easy.
It's actually just a normal Workers Party, not mitigated by social democrats. Deep nationalism and mercantile socialist protective methods like tariffs, as opposed to free trade and globalism of neo-liberal capitalist economics. The eternal dream of every working man - true national-socialist party. MAGA.
It's really interesting how in two-party system of the USA those movements that in Europe would be separate parties unite under the umbrella of one of two parties. So, MAGA unites national-socialists ("the poors"), libertarians ("the rich") and religious right ("the ugly", as I call them. :) ) Former free-trade, neo-liberal, socially moderate Republicans moved to Dems as never-trumpers.
Funny how three main parts of MAGA hate each other. The only thing they hate more is well-off, internationalist, moralist, godless, globalist, educated elites of social-democratic movement - Dems, or "the Left". :) Funny, but not unusual - at the start of the 20th century workers' movements similarly rejected internationalist social-democratic parties and formed national-socialist parties. Well, then, as we all know, one bad apple gave all national-socialists a bad rep, and the workers were shackled by soc-dems, but they are back, they are back.
Not only that, but you can maybe see the assassination of the medical insurance CEO in NY as an echo of the anarchist movement or those times. Propaganda of the Deed they called it. The fact that the assassin is of Italian heritage was entirely coincidental.
"The eternal dream of every working man - true national-socialist party" - actually nightmare.
But anyone who considers "internationalist, moralist, godless, globalist, educated' to be insults is obviously beyond redemption.
We only have one planet, so "globalism" is essential, not optional. The choice is globalism or extinction.
"Moralist" can, of course, be a problem, depending on the specific "morals" which are often mixed up with the specific god delusion of the person defining the morality and using their specific sky-fairy to control the masses.
Ethics, of course, are better defined - and obviously also an essential - and completely lacking in "MAGA" and those who lead it.
"Godless" is also an essential quality - nothing causes more harm in the world than all the damn gods and the eternal conflict between their adherents and those promoting god delusions to gain power. A pox on all their houses.
And then we get "educated". It is obvious why those promoting evils such as nationalism are opposed to education. Encouraging thinking is deadly to the pursuit of power, and indeed, to the very concept of nationalism. It also effectively inoculates against theism.
There have been reports in the Israeli press that Israel is lobbying the US to support the retention of Russian bases in Syria as a counterweight to Turkey. I can only assume that means the IRGC / Russian alliance in Syria is completely and irrevocably kaput. And in spite of this, the aviation press is hinting at the final unveiling of Iranian Su-35s on the 19th of this month.
I don't think Russia sees any connection between Syria and Iran. You have to understand that Putin has no understanding of middle-east politics. None. Zero. For him whomever in the middle east is against US is an ally of Russia. Israel he sees as a parasite sucking money and military strength from US, as Jews naturally do, since it's their natural state (in Putin's opinion, not mine. He isn't an antisemite per se, but he is Russian), and thus kind of an ally of Russia, too. Kind of.
So, I'm pretty sure Russia is happy to give Su-35s to Iran and doesn't see any problem with that.
Hm. You certainly have a point that Putin sees Israel, ultimately, and correctly, as weakening the US. But he is well aware that Russian air support and Iranian insurgent strategy were what kept Assad in power, and that, if he is to have any active stake left in the composition of the Syrian government the IRGC would be his natural allies in securing that.
I think the truth is, and Putin correctly perceives this, that Israel's weakening of the US is owing to domestic factors (AIPAC etc.) which are entirely beyond the scope of anyone except the US electorate to change.
No offense, but sounds like a joke. Turkey elites are absolutely pro-Israeli, for example petrol goes to Israel from Turkish refineries. And all these pseudo anti-Israel rhetorics are for the low-level villagers in central part of the country.
Anyway, even Atatürk himself was a Jew from Thessaloniki.
Yeah. There is a very weird frenemy thing going on between Netanyahu and Erdogan. Erdogan most likely doesn't give a shit about Gazans, but does deeply mistrust Israel's proxification of the Kurds. Supporting Israel under the table vis a vis Palestine is something he can do to find common ground with both Netanyahu and the US; the CIA would probably try to destabilize Turkey if it were to become a threat to Israel.
I can’t dispute any of these points TU-16 & Josh, but 77 years of efforts by Arabs and Iran to contain Zionism resulted in a deadly farce. Turkey in Syria could be the counter.
Thanks Tom for the dynamic, very entertaining Saturday morning read. I have one small piece of HUMINT to throw out on trump’s freeze. There are 246 APC’s built in Canada stuck on the dock in Gdansk.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights report some 500 civilian Alawites, and 250 SAA(?) soldiers, killed. These soldiers must have committed fratricide in their lust for Alawite blood, apparently.
Also, Turkey have announced that they are concerned regarding the situation in Latakia. Any chance for a Turkish land grab? All in the best interest of the civilians, of course.
Collecting info on Syria. Especially about who actually did what. There will be an update in the Part 2, of course.
Re. Turkish land-grab: no way. They're no Israel. Read: they could've, but didn't, grab land already years ago. If at all, they're after the PKK. If the PKK disarms, they'll withdraw.
"Any chance for a Turkish land grab?" Nowdays only Russia and, potentially, MAGA stick to old 19th century style of grabbing territories. More advanced players (like Turkey) will act via proxies.
It's like southern Montenegro, nominally it is part of the country, effectively Albanian territory with nothing Slavic.
Of course, there are a lot of Turkish SOF and intel operatives. But it will not lead to annex of territory. Proxy is more convenient, anyway thousands of Syrian Turkomans are getting Turkish passports.
The only reason why the Ukrainian troops are not abandoning a severely degraded salient - is maybe related to the fact that their fortified defense Line ín the Sumi region rear area is not ready - this would mean again exchanging life of 4-6k troops to gain some time - if this is not the main driver but only Politics where then what can we say?
As usually, if there is still no fortified defence line in Sumy, then somebody up there in Kyiv is not doing his job.
...which is nothing new...
BTW, 'exchanging the lives of 4-6,000 best ZSU troops for time' is no option at all. Should there be any doubts, see the ZSU's losses in Bakhmut.
Spot on - my problem is that albeit slowly but Russian operative level is adapting - when they have some best practices they apply quite consistent way (I mean pareto consistent) - this is an area where Ukrainian army is lagging behind - way too many patching ad-hoc decisions on theatre command level
If Russians continue into Sumy due to lack of defenses then... oh dear, I don't know what to say
Of course they will! Why shouldn't they? They have concentrated army and logistics there, what could be the reason to stop? It's okay. There would be some more territory losses, but they don't matter.
What matters is the ratio of losses, and most important is the ratio of Ukrainian losses. Whole strategy should be targeting limiting Ukrainian human losses and replacing them with economic losses - spending lots of resources on force multipliers like fortified defence lines, protected logistics and so on.
No amount of fortified positions can stop Russians. What they could do is slow them down and force them to expend a lot more resources to kill a bit less Ukrainians. The grand strategy is to survive until Putin dies from natural causes, years down the line.
Now you mention it, I suppose its obvious they will try, but it should as you say be painful for them due to force multipliers, which Ukraine has no doubt prepared due to the obviously inevitable fall of the Kursk salient (gulp.......)
Well, obviously! Right from the start of the enterprise it was absolutely obvious that no matter how the things go, eventually Ukrainian forces would have to retreat and set up better defense line in a less vulnerable position. Even if that was not in the plans, the inevitable chaotic situation of any war mean that any force should be ready for sudden retreat and establishing a new defensive line.
It's not even military 101, it's the very basics. Even Russians know and implement it. First thing you do is establish the reserve and fall-back defensive lines, especially if you can do it where currently there is no actual fighting. Even a preschooler would plan and implement second and third lines of defensive position by that time in the operation.
It is most obvious and self-evident truth that defensive positions were planned, ordered to be built, built and checked. Likely multiple times, for you at first establish major points of defense and then revise and improve upon them multiple times if you have time. There is absolutely zero chance that Ukrainians didn't do it. Zero. It is absolutely done and I can't wait till we'll see on social networks praises for the newly built defensive lines.
Once again, gulp........
Thanks, I've been worried for the Kurks troops for a long while now.
This focus on holding positions for political or pr reasons is unhealthy, but Syrskyy is in command.. for now.
It is often necessary when population evaluates the war as presented by media in terms of winning or losing grounds. Similarly, any surrender of territories lead to rating losses and morale losses. And Zelensky still worries about ratings. Oh, well.
You're right, unfortunately.
Let's hope that as with some other battles, the units on the ground take matters into their own hands... and their leaders don't get fired for it!
thoughts on cutting of all Maxar imagery in Ukraine, even if bought by private individuals?
On the Starlink question, I read a news story about Eutelsat ‘stepping up’ (see below). Do you think this is feasible as a Starlink replacement or actually a completely different capability that media has in implied is equivalent?
Eutelsat has more than 630 satellites moving in low-Earth orbit around the world, the company said, that offer the “same capacities” as Starlink for coverage and response time.
Eutelsat’s low-Earth satellites are already deployed in Ukraine to support “government and institutional communications,” the company said.
Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke told Bloomberg they would need a couple of months to supply 40,000 military-grade and standard terminals to Ukraine.
The company is also considering using its 35 geostationary satellites to provide “additional capacity” over Ukraine and “stronger resilience” for the country’s connectivity.
Eutelsat (oneweb really) has around 10% of Starlink's number of satellites. It does not offer same capacities unless you massage numbers very very hard. It's a troublesome enterprise. I would be sceptical about any claims - it has a history of claims not followed by results.
AFAIK, it's foremost the capacity that's fundamentaly different, and even the Eutelsat couldn't offer the similar quality of service before around 2030 or so.
As said: after three years of massive investment into the StarLink, Ukraine is a 'prisoner' of that system.
When you get right down to it, there has been no ‘lasting and stable peace’ in Syria since the British (i.e. Commonwealth) troops conquered the area in late 1918. /// If you look into it, it was never there. In 1860, Muslims in Syria massacred Christians. Thousands were killed, hundreds were sent into slavery to the Bedouins. But to understand this, we must get rid of the leftist fixation on the hated "imperialists", Israelis, etc.
Yeah, and in between of that, you've just 'forgotten' that Syria was a Sanjak in the Ottoman Empire (including Palestine), and thus the genocide on the Muslim population in the Ottoman-conquered parts of Europe...
Bottom line, cannot but recommend a suitable read:
https://www.morawa.at/detail/ISBN-9780521747516/Provence-Michael/The-Last-Ottoman-Generation-and-the-Making-of-the-Modern-Middle-------------East
What do you mean? If Syria was part of the Ottoman Empire, then slaughtering local Christians is normal?
What do you mean? If Europe from the Balkans to Mariupol was a part of the Ottoman Empire, then slaughtering millions of local Muslims is not worth mention?
Ha, I didn't expect such a simple leak of the topic. It is clear that everything happened in different places. Unlike you, I do not take sides, I remind you that there has never been peace in Syria. The fairy tale that it all began in the 20th century is convenient for your leftist mythology about the flourishing Ottoman Empire destroyed by Europeans, but does not correspond to reality. My eyes were popping out of my head when I once read your, mmm, very strange story about the economically prosperous Ottoman Empire before the First World War. In Russian, there is an author Fomenko, who created a delirious, absolutely unscientific alternative history of the world. This was from the same area. In general, you know, I have been reading you since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, I really liked your reviews (and they are still not bad). When you mentioned that you hold very leftist views, I immediately thought with a grin: "Surely he hates Israel." And I was stunned, how right on target, when I saw what you did after the absolutely unprecedented, incredibly cruel Palestinian terrorist attack with the slaughter of everyone in a row, right down to infants: one post about how terrorism is bad, followed by 100 posts justifying it and pouring all kinds of slander on Israel. It's a pity, because now I treat your texts about Ukraine with a certain caution. A person can be different on different topics. Somewhere very biased (like you with Israel), somewhere objective (like you probably are with Ukraine). But there is always a possibility that such nature is still sinful at least a little in all topics.
But I am taking sides, and of course, I'm a Marxist Sissi and anti-Semitic, too.
Now don your white hood and ride into the expanses of the social media: trash those leftist snowflakes with BS into oblivion!
As a non-leftie pro western humanist I thought everything Tom wrote about the Gaza situation was reasonable and unbiased.
You and I clearly have different understandings of the term unbiasedness.
Thanks for the update. Per the US help, is there any system that the Europans can't try to give (even if lower quality) an ersatz to? On the positive side, it seems that Trump is the only force to move the unmovable, ie the EU leadership 🙄 i hope this time with more biting and less barking.
OneWeb is an adequate substitute for Starlink, obviously not as fast/high bandwidth, but workable.
The geostationary satellites have high latency, but these offer an alternative channel of communication (best for data distribution from central HQ)
I don't think that Starlink is so crucial for the ZSU. The Ukrainian army uses Kymeta, an American-based company. Perhaps some difficulties will come if Musk bans Ukraine, but communication will work. If Kymeta is the satellite communications company, then Teltonika provides cell technology communications, and it's based in Europe. Teltonika can help military units in 20-40 km depth in the Ukranian territory.
Also, it should be noted, Andriy Biletsky in the interview said the 3rd Assault Brigade is using not only Starlink but some different channels of communication. He also admitted that other units are lazy and don't want to duplicate Starlink.
https://www.dw.com/uk/vidsutnist-rozviddanih-ssa-prizvela-do-velikih-vtrat-zsu-time/a-71867645?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
Thanks Tom. These are the latest complaints from the Ukrainian side regarding the cessation of access to American intelligence.
Hm... the situation in Kursk is critical for two weeks now (at least since around 20-23 February).
US intel personnel has left two days ago...
So, something's not fitting there.
I did a little searching and found a credible source for me that describes the events in Syria quite differently than you do and documents it with photos and videos. And I certainly didn't find the photos to be from 2012, as you write. I quote in translation: The hell of civil war has been fully renewed in Syria.
HTS field fighters still believe that Syria should follow the path of a strictly Muslim state with strict Sharia law. And they are not happy with the policies of the Golani leader, who has reverted to his civilian name, Ahmad ash-Sharaa, shed his camouflage and donned a quidditch mask, and has begun to negotiate with politicians from many countries, including the EU, pushing for a multi-ethnic and multi-religious concept of a new Syria.
His old comrades-in-arms, on the other hand, think that strict Sharia law should be introduced, that women should be ordered to cover themselves and crawl into their houses and not stick their noses out, and that they do not like the celebration of Christian and Jewish festivals or other immoral innovations. Immediately after Golani came to power, unrest began to bubble up in Syria between populations of different religions and nationalities. And neighbouring states and world powers are also heating up their disgusting political soup.
This week, the unrest has escalated into massive armed clashes in which former HTS fighters, who have since been assigned to the police, have gone to quell protests in the Alawite regions in the west, in the mountains and on the Mediterranean coast. They immediately started shooting pretty brutally with live ammunition, and were joined by the most notorious foreign jihadists from Central Asia, including Chinese Uighurs (these are the good Uighurs who are so hurt by Communist China and just want to keep their traditions). Large groups of gunmen are raiding 'infidel dog' Alawite villages, executing men and raping women. Local observers estimate the death toll at 300-500 in two days, mostly men. The internet is awash with videos of jihadists first torturing the men, then letting them crawl to the execution site, where they shoot dozens of them and brag about it all on the internet.
Only the villagers in the vicinity of the Russian military bases of Tartus and Hmeimim are a bit lucky; the Russian command has allowed several thousand people to take refuge in the safe territory of the military bases. But there are no facilities for them there, although they have enough water and food for a few days.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/marie.divisova.731/posts/pfbid02LhRZZuvfZf1XnuVFCRavsQzrksiv78EebKa1AHRgjT2tXBhUzg3MS25iVXS4jcs7l
Sure. Both Czechs at that base, and the Russians there - either those that were mass-murdering Syrian 'terrorists' for nearly a decade, or their dependants - are the best source for accurate and dependable information on developments in Syria. And, as everybody knows: all the Syrians are crazy head-choppers.
...only Assadists not, of course.
The only thing I'm surprised about is one: how comes none of dependable and authoritative sources in question can say a word about the Russian FSB 'allowing' dozens of thousands of Russian Muslims to go joining the Daesh, back in 2012-2015 (all in the name of 'keeping Olympic games in Sochi safe', of course)?
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/fsb-defectors-claims-about-moscows-ties.html?m=1
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/russia-militants/
I'm not surprised, though, this came exactly a week after the Uygurs of the former HTS have issued a call for world-wide support, because they're fighting the Chinese communist regime...
You are taking things out of context. Russia is only mentioned at the end and has nothing to do with the essence of the message. I don't really understand why you're picking on those three sentences at the end.
Most likely, the lady in question is not getting her information from a Russian source either. And do you know that most Czechs are, on the contrary, very anti-Russian? And I didn't put it here with the idea that it must be the whole truth, but as a different version of events than the one you present. And you may well be right. I don't know. I am looking for the truth and I am interested in where the truth is. But you did not respond to my previous post, which would have helped me find the truth, where I asked how you came to know that the videos were from 2012.
Because I've seen exactly the same kind of rubbish when some nun there in one of Christian monasteries of western Syria was claiming that 'Nusra is massacring Christians', back in 2012.
Until today, about 95% of people who have seen her 'eyewitness accounts' are firmly convinced she's right. Primarily because she's a Christian nun (and 'white').
While, actually, it was Assadists that were massacring thousands of Sunnis, and she was serving Assad and spreading PRBS.
Of course, as somebody who's traveled all over Syria for years, and then followed the war in Syria, day-in-day out, with help of first-hand contacts, and all other available sources: who am I to say?
The answer is clear: nobody.
Even more for such, far more obvious reasons like: if somebody - whether Russian or working for the Russians (but, of course, in no way related to them) - would go claiming that Ukrainians are massacring women and children around Donbas, then, of course, that's lies. But, if somebody who is working for the Russians claims the 'Nusra Jihadists in Syria are massacring civilians', that's automatic truth. Even more so because 'most' of the Czechs are anti-Russian, which means that all of them are anti-Russian, and would never lie in favour of the Russians, especially not if paid to do so.
Bottom line: sorry, I'm fed up (to death) of jumping to conclusions (and then also getting excited about that, too). I first want to see evidence from somebody who isn't working at the Hmeymim AB, nor (gauging by content of her FB-account), an outspoken Dumpfist.
Otherwise, the trusted Politika Strany has been reporting similar things for me. here: https://t.me/stranaua/188453?single Time will tell who is right.
Yes, and back in 2016, the same trusted Politika Strany was reporting about 'USA buying arms for terrorists' - in Bulgaria, in Serbia etc. And that the USA are delivering these arms to 'Nusra'.
...ironically, the USA were buying arms from Bulgaria and Serbia - and delivering them to 'terrorists' - but those of the PKK.
Come on: give me something better but a sensationalist hungry media jumping for a FB-post by an outspoken Dumpfist (from Czechia, sure, but still: a Dumpfist).
Maybe they were right, maybe they weren't. I don't know. Nobody's infallible. But I well remember some Sarcastosaurus claiming about two years ago how the Ukrainians attacked and destroyed a bridge in Crimea and the truth was that it was just smoke masking by the Russians. And then he didn't even properly admit he made a mistake let alone apologize to the readers and just accused the rest of them of being mean to him.
"The only thing I'm surprised about is one: how comes none of dependable and authoritative sources in question can say a word about the Russian FSB 'allowing' dozens of thousands of Russian Muslims to go joining the Daesh, back in 2012-2015 (all in the name of 'keeping Olympic games in Sochi safe', of course)?"
They followed suit the best practices of Arab countries which let dozens of thousands of crazy jihadists to go to Afganistan to fight the Soviets back in 80s. And do not forget that hundreds of jihadist scum came to Daesh from EU and even US.
As per reasons for FSB - yes, safety of Sochi was a priority. You perfectly know that for the Russian rulers the show off for the West is of ultimate importance. Sochi Olympics were supposed to show the achievments of Putin-ruled Russia, but the shining of Olympics was immediately offset by Maidan in Kiev. This coup financed from abroad (now we know it for sure since a brave guy Elon Musk revealed all the "deeds" of USAID "faggots") became especially hated by Russian authorities for spoiling image of Olympics.
On second thought, I find it pretty smart from FSB to force jihadists from Russia to Daesh. Instead of catching them in vain in mountains of Caucasus or after acts of terror in Russian cites, FSB let them to Daesh, just to be later destroyed en masse by brave Syrian and Iraqi goverment forces, Shia paramilitaries, Russian army and US airforce/SOF.
Good to know it was Arab countries only... the 50,000 Russians shipped to Iraq and Syria by the FSB do not matter, then. Even more so considering the mass of them were no 'Jihadists', not even 'Islamists': just Muslims. Every decent white Christian knows the latter are no human beings. People renowned as peaceful, tolerant, and pluralists - like Zionists, just for example - know even better...
...and yes, it was all in the name of 'keeping the Olympic games in Sochi safe': no problem if Christians are doing such things - especially because it was the CIA that toppled a Russian puppet in Kyiv: as is well known - particularly since 24 February 2022 - Ukrainians would never come to the idea to do so on their own.
Tom, commone, you perfectly know that lion's share of those 50K were "ready-to-act" jihadists, mainly from Caucasus. Just 50k out of 20+mln Russian Muslims. This is to indicate that it was not islamophobia but surgery to get rid of potential terrorists. And they were not forced out, they were given opportunity to go abroad (prone to wahhabi things people usually under certain governance in Russia and restricted from going abroad). They went abroad via Turkey, with final destination Daesh camps in Iraq. They went there deliberately otherwise could have stayed in Turkey or go to EU as "victims of cruel regime".
As per RU puppet in Kiev - he was never one but after Maidan. Yanukovich was a classical post-Soviet mafiosi taking power. He was rather popular for ability in finding certain compromises. As a person with a past criminal background, he was flexible. Hand on heart, if you ask about it most of commone Ukranians, they would be happy to return in pre-Maidan times.
Good to hear you know every single one of the 50,000. I do not.
BTW, the idea was not even new: the FSB simply copy-pasted Q Mukhbarat's Jihad-Import-Export scheme...
Ah yes, and: the only ones 'fleeing' to the EU as victims of cruel regime' - were Assadists. That's why so many of them were arrested, prosecuted and sentences here.
"Good to hear you know every single one of the 50,000. I do not." No need to know, a pure logic: if one deliberately joins Daesh, how could you label him?)
"BTW, the idea was not even new: the FSB simply copy-pasted Q Mukhbarat's Jihad-Import-Export scheme." I indicated it above. However, the main supplier of jihadists to Afganistan were not Q guys but Saudis.
"Ah yes, and: the only ones 'fleeing' to the EU as victims of cruel regime' - were Assadists" . Any sources to confim? Personally, never heard of Alawites stabbing and exploding anyone in EU.
Since tbe blog is sarcastic, need to send a little quest to Tom on absolutely horrible but matching the subject of discussion case about Assadists presumably doing crime in EU.
https://raillynews.com/2024/09/hollandada-namus-cinayeti-ryan-al-najjarin-trajik-hikayesi/
A young woman from the family of Syrian refugees was killed by relatives for being too "Western" in Holland. An interrogation then: was the family from Assadist side or from other camp of "freedom fighters"?
Despite whatever medelling the details of which i am not bothered about- big picture is: The USA tried to prevent the Maidan revolution which was ultimately grass roots driven, they tried to prevent the collapse of the USSR, BOTH Biden and Trump administrations have tried to prevent the collapse of Russia in their own ways. Tom is right. The Russian will to rule the eastern side of Europe must be broken. They have to stop *wanting* this. Will this solve all of Europe's problems? Not in the slightest. But I absolutely agree with him that this is the first thing that must be got out of the way before progress on other things can be made.
How do you square the anti woman sentiment you wrote about with the track record in areas under HTS rule prior to the fall of Assad?
I ask because all the reports I've seen suggest pragmatic leadership rather than fundamentalist, and that in one of the most conservative areas of Syria.
Israel, Iran, the US and Russia are all keen on destabilising the Sharaa government, for their own purposes, and seem to be actively working to foment strife.
"Syrian Arab Army hit back with full force - including a deployment of ground forces, supported by air strikes by Mil Mi-8 and Mi-25 helicopters"
https://t.me/anna_news/77080
They took "best practices" from the previous owners by bombing with hand-made bombs civilian villages from the hight altitude. But they do it, no doubts, in moderate, almost-democratic manner.)
The fact they were 'bombing with hand-made bombs' is why one can see trails of unguided rockets streaking away from that Mi-25 on the still I've posted?
I mean: I know you otherwise as a sane and sober person, with quite some analytical skill.
How comes you do not wonder, not for a second - this all is coming
- a week after the above mentioned meeting of top IRGC-QF and Assadist thugs;
- a week after the ex-Nusra/HTS-Uygurs demanded 'the World' to support them in their struggle against the Communist regime in the PRC; and
- a few days since the gov in Damascus began demanding reparations from Russia (for all the damage its years-long, systematic and intentional bombardment of civilians has caused) as a 'confidence-building' measure?
....or, would you like to say, you're 100000% confident we're simply back to - just for example - the times of September-October-November 2015, and in no way would Moscow ever, ever, ever come to the idea to stage some kind of maskirovka in favour of its Assadist friends?
I see no condratictions though. No doubts, former assadists elite want some power back, Iranian and Russian inteference is plausible but this does not contradict the fact that Syria "insected" by thousands of medieval Barbarians which do not care about orders of CIA asset Julani. Nowdays Syria reminds me pre-Taliban Afganistan of early 90s after pro-Soviet regime collapse.
Sad to admit, but the only way for Syrian minorities to survive is to get their territories desintegrated from Syria. Alternatively they will face the fate of Iraqi Christians - total exodus with partial holocaust.
Many ME countries have weird freaky borders (Syria, Iraq), now it's a good chance to make out the century back mistake of Entante.
“The usual DISCLAIMER: please mind that you’re reading the following blasphemies at your own discretion. It was not yet confirmed by clinical studies, but reports are indicating that the reading of this blog is causing feverish outbursts of upsetia, severe haterdia accompanied by headaches, acute moronia, cases of racistia resulting in sleepless nights, chauvinistia with big purulent pimples, trollia acuta accompanied by severe diarrhea, and few other, infectious social media diseases.”
********************************************************************
You are too late! I have been exhibiting all of these symptoms long since, thanks to reading your posts herein on Substack and on your F@rcebook account (the “farce,” however is not due to you, but due to you and me, in other circumstances, being Zucked once too often).
The Syrian hoopla:
-----------------------------
I don’t recall seeing much additional information provided by the MSM lately, which I pretty much avoid habitually, but do you know how that impending tragedy of the underground prison with its so called almost impenetrable security system worked out? Were the “victorious” forces able to break into the prison and relieve those prisoners who otherwise would have died of thirst and starvation?
U.S. Intelligence Information “Leaks:”
---------------------------------------------------------
In addition to the other defects in the U.S. intelligence system for protecting classified information from unauthorized disclosure, I perceive that part of the problem is that the U.S. does not have an Official Secrets Act such as exists in the United Kingdom. Just saying ….
Something on Trump and MAGAfying the entire Republican Party
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t know if this is true, but it suggests why the entire Republican political representation in the Congress (House & Senate) is going along with Trump-ismo lock, stock, and barrel.
FYI:
https://www.vox.com/23899688/2024-election-republican-primary-death-threats-trump
There's no Republican Party in the US anymore. A MAGA Party took its place (and misuses its name). Perhaps republicans will reappear someday, but it isn't going to be easy.
It is looking a lot like a Putinist party at present. The oligarchy is in place and the machinery of government is being destroyed or absorbed.
It's actually just a normal Workers Party, not mitigated by social democrats. Deep nationalism and mercantile socialist protective methods like tariffs, as opposed to free trade and globalism of neo-liberal capitalist economics. The eternal dream of every working man - true national-socialist party. MAGA.
It's really interesting how in two-party system of the USA those movements that in Europe would be separate parties unite under the umbrella of one of two parties. So, MAGA unites national-socialists ("the poors"), libertarians ("the rich") and religious right ("the ugly", as I call them. :) ) Former free-trade, neo-liberal, socially moderate Republicans moved to Dems as never-trumpers.
Funny how three main parts of MAGA hate each other. The only thing they hate more is well-off, internationalist, moralist, godless, globalist, educated elites of social-democratic movement - Dems, or "the Left". :) Funny, but not unusual - at the start of the 20th century workers' movements similarly rejected internationalist social-democratic parties and formed national-socialist parties. Well, then, as we all know, one bad apple gave all national-socialists a bad rep, and the workers were shackled by soc-dems, but they are back, they are back.
Not only that, but you can maybe see the assassination of the medical insurance CEO in NY as an echo of the anarchist movement or those times. Propaganda of the Deed they called it. The fact that the assassin is of Italian heritage was entirely coincidental.
"The eternal dream of every working man - true national-socialist party" - actually nightmare.
But anyone who considers "internationalist, moralist, godless, globalist, educated' to be insults is obviously beyond redemption.
We only have one planet, so "globalism" is essential, not optional. The choice is globalism or extinction.
"Moralist" can, of course, be a problem, depending on the specific "morals" which are often mixed up with the specific god delusion of the person defining the morality and using their specific sky-fairy to control the masses.
Ethics, of course, are better defined - and obviously also an essential - and completely lacking in "MAGA" and those who lead it.
"Godless" is also an essential quality - nothing causes more harm in the world than all the damn gods and the eternal conflict between their adherents and those promoting god delusions to gain power. A pox on all their houses.
And then we get "educated". It is obvious why those promoting evils such as nationalism are opposed to education. Encouraging thinking is deadly to the pursuit of power, and indeed, to the very concept of nationalism. It also effectively inoculates against theism.
Poor syria, i even think, perhaps the persians and asadist are in the past, but no... I hope the best, but perhaps is not tomorrow.
And yes, very impresive the offset of the missile launch, the cuality of the pics, the pilots is and artist! Dassault is happy! The best poster ever!
There have been reports in the Israeli press that Israel is lobbying the US to support the retention of Russian bases in Syria as a counterweight to Turkey. I can only assume that means the IRGC / Russian alliance in Syria is completely and irrevocably kaput. And in spite of this, the aviation press is hinting at the final unveiling of Iranian Su-35s on the 19th of this month.
I don't think Russia sees any connection between Syria and Iran. You have to understand that Putin has no understanding of middle-east politics. None. Zero. For him whomever in the middle east is against US is an ally of Russia. Israel he sees as a parasite sucking money and military strength from US, as Jews naturally do, since it's their natural state (in Putin's opinion, not mine. He isn't an antisemite per se, but he is Russian), and thus kind of an ally of Russia, too. Kind of.
So, I'm pretty sure Russia is happy to give Su-35s to Iran and doesn't see any problem with that.
Hm. You certainly have a point that Putin sees Israel, ultimately, and correctly, as weakening the US. But he is well aware that Russian air support and Iranian insurgent strategy were what kept Assad in power, and that, if he is to have any active stake left in the composition of the Syrian government the IRGC would be his natural allies in securing that.
I think the truth is, and Putin correctly perceives this, that Israel's weakening of the US is owing to domestic factors (AIPAC etc.) which are entirely beyond the scope of anyone except the US electorate to change.
Makes sense, Turkey has the means to challenge Israel if Big E wants to.
No offense, but sounds like a joke. Turkey elites are absolutely pro-Israeli, for example petrol goes to Israel from Turkish refineries. And all these pseudo anti-Israel rhetorics are for the low-level villagers in central part of the country.
Anyway, even Atatürk himself was a Jew from Thessaloniki.
Yeah. There is a very weird frenemy thing going on between Netanyahu and Erdogan. Erdogan most likely doesn't give a shit about Gazans, but does deeply mistrust Israel's proxification of the Kurds. Supporting Israel under the table vis a vis Palestine is something he can do to find common ground with both Netanyahu and the US; the CIA would probably try to destabilize Turkey if it were to become a threat to Israel.
I can’t dispute any of these points TU-16 & Josh, but 77 years of efforts by Arabs and Iran to contain Zionism resulted in a deadly farce. Turkey in Syria could be the counter.
Thanks Tom for the dynamic, very entertaining Saturday morning read. I have one small piece of HUMINT to throw out on trump’s freeze. There are 246 APC’s built in Canada stuck on the dock in Gdansk.
Why would these be stuck if USA is the one halting their material move?
I think the US is buying them and paying for the transportation, and they froze everything in transit.
Thanks Tom, for the good and the bad new.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights report some 500 civilian Alawites, and 250 SAA(?) soldiers, killed. These soldiers must have committed fratricide in their lust for Alawite blood, apparently.
Also, Turkey have announced that they are concerned regarding the situation in Latakia. Any chance for a Turkish land grab? All in the best interest of the civilians, of course.
Collecting info on Syria. Especially about who actually did what. There will be an update in the Part 2, of course.
Re. Turkish land-grab: no way. They're no Israel. Read: they could've, but didn't, grab land already years ago. If at all, they're after the PKK. If the PKK disarms, they'll withdraw.
Looking forward to that!
Where do you think the PKK will go? Any chance that they will join the new army?
"Any chance for a Turkish land grab?" Nowdays only Russia and, potentially, MAGA stick to old 19th century style of grabbing territories. More advanced players (like Turkey) will act via proxies.
It's like southern Montenegro, nominally it is part of the country, effectively Albanian territory with nothing Slavic.
Gotta add Israel to that list, I believe.
So there are no Turkish soldiers in Syria right now?
Of course, there are a lot of Turkish SOF and intel operatives. But it will not lead to annex of territory. Proxy is more convenient, anyway thousands of Syrian Turkomans are getting Turkish passports.