I also believe there is something to the speculation that Xi Jinping is no longer in control. So Israel had the perfect opportunity, Trump beating down Senators, China in disarray (buyer of most of Iranian oil). Like you say, we don't know what Iran will do but I believe it naive to count them out. Israel probably did Iran a favor by getting the younger guys into power ;)
Depends on the next Iranian actions. If they will attack ships in Persian gulf and Hutis would attack in the Red Sea ... But they must also count with China.
I guess Netanjahu does not mind if this war will be bloody and dragging on for years. I guess it just play into his cards. (Same with Hamas and other similar players there who benefits from violence and wars.) Not sure about Iranian regime - it may have round the flag effect for the short time. But may be causing shakes after it fades away.
Talk about putting all the eggs in one basket... and I'd think underground shelters for top brass meetings would be designed to prevent any sudden direct hits?
BTW, you mentioned Major-General Hossein Salami (CO IRGC) in two lists. Was he killed twice - at the meeting and at home, too?
Thanks as always Tom. I can't find a source for your claim about the Knesset vote today though. Looks like Netanyahu passed a vote of no confidence yesterday?
In the eyes of Western politicians, this is Israel - and them roped-in - vs Iran. In the eyes of the global public (with maybe the exception of India), it is increasingly a case of Israel vs the world. To pose the famous question of Lenin: What is to be done?
So if Iran's air force gets destroyed there's no way the current government in Iran is going to be willing to put the necessary resources in this branch to rebuild it right? That's the only outcome I'm seeing, but if Iran does not have a modern air force this result will just happen again so this doesn't look good for the future of Iran.
It's definitely so that the Israelis are aiming not only to destroy the Iran's nuclear infrastructure to the degree where it might prove 'prohibitive' to rebuild it, but also to at least shake, if not topple the regime.
As for Iran's air force: the IRGC took care to debilitate it into near-inoperationality, already years ago. Now it's no factor any more.
Just for example: out of 60+ operational F-14s as of 2012 (and they could play a crucial role now), only some 7-8 were operational the last 2-3 years, and only some 2-3 were FMC.
I was aware from your previous writings the derelict state of the air force, I was just thinking that any attempt at recovery without actually building up a modern air force is futile and I don't see Iran's current leadership doing that. A shame a country with such potential has such foolish leadership.
'The leadership' of Iran is not 'just' those killed by the Israelis, but lots of other 'members of different cliques/groups': they have very different - primarily 'economic' - interests.
And so, since nobody 'important' was likely to cash a deft bribe if Iran would've imported any kind of advanced fighter-interceptor, nor the associated ground equipment, none were bought. Instead, there were lots of 'important people' who were cashing deftly from different missile projects...
Usually it happens that some country that wants to sell its military products and get big contracts, then they give good bribes and kickbacks to the local leadership. Only then something according to these schemes starts to be supplied to the army. I wonder why the Iranians and the Chinese do not cooperate in the field of aviation, if the Chinese were not against helping the Iranian regime with ballistic missiles?
Damn, this is some work and a half. That strike on the leadership was something else. I'm not sure if this is good or bad (yeah, younger guys who are more aggressive can move up, but no promise they are any smarter or better, just different). I am thinking the point may have been to disrupt the Iranian C2 during the initial strikes and other than knocking out the communications entirely, this would do it. For at least 12 hours the Iranian Military and IRGC was leaderless, and that is when the IDF plowed them under.
Why India lost planes while trying to attack where Israel managed to attack so far without losing any planes. Is it better tech, better strategy/tactics or a weaker opponent?
One unofficial source in Indian airforce has mentioned that all the planes gone down are because of missile defence and SAM attacks and PL-15 is not in the equation. Any thoughts..?
At the risk of stating the obvious, Pakistan also has latest gen air to air missiles equivalent to the R-37M, whereas Iran has clearly been shafted by Putin on the Su-35 deal (what are they, in Algeria or something?), and their domestic industry has put all its eggs into the basket of IRBMs.
Impressive , @tom Cooper, as always... so both Pakistan and Iran were actually faking their Nuclear prgramme, the y couldn.t even buy a nuke from N Korea all these years? With command structure eeply penetrated by Mossad in the meantime as well (they knew averything but Oct 7 preps, of course)
Both Iran's nuclear program and its ballistic missile program - are outmatching those of Pakistan by WIDE margin.
The difference is the sophistication of Israel's attack in comparison to that of India: New Delhi 'didn't want to escalate' and thus, initially, targeted terror camps only. Israelis went all out right from the start.
Before the Israeli air strikes: yes, definitely so. By a wide margin.
At least equipment-wise: they were operating stuff specially designed to local requirements, partially based on experiences form the war with Iraq, partially on experiences from Lebanon and Syria.
Pakistan has got whatever the Chinese were ready to share, surely not their 'best'.
One more question. Pakistan already have around 150 nuclear warheads while Iran has none . While I agree that local R&D would be better in Iran case. But do not understand your deduction.
Only indirectly, because the Middle East is very complicated. But numerous requests for Israel to send things to Ukraine were either denied or slow rolled when those requests would have had 0.0 impact upon Israel's ability to defend itself.
If this war result in the removal of Islamic regime in Iran then it should continue. Apart from this regime Iran has the best human capital in Middle East. They should stop opposing Israel for their own sake .Arabs are no match for Iranians.
As an English speaker, I think you might want edit that for clarity then? You might be thought to say that the Iranians should quit opposing Israel, Arabs are no match for Israelis as this was written. Which is wrong in several ways...
I also believe there is something to the speculation that Xi Jinping is no longer in control. So Israel had the perfect opportunity, Trump beating down Senators, China in disarray (buyer of most of Iranian oil). Like you say, we don't know what Iran will do but I believe it naive to count them out. Israel probably did Iran a favor by getting the younger guys into power ;)
Not that Israel cares, but this strike gave a boost to Russia by causing the price of oil to skyrocket.
Depends on the next Iranian actions. If they will attack ships in Persian gulf and Hutis would attack in the Red Sea ... But they must also count with China.
Maybe they won't be so generous with the drone supply though.
Iran ceased supplying drones to Russia already back in 2023.
I guess Netanjahu does not mind if this war will be bloody and dragging on for years. I guess it just play into his cards. (Same with Hamas and other similar players there who benefits from violence and wars.) Not sure about Iranian regime - it may have round the flag effect for the short time. But may be causing shakes after it fades away.
Yup. Both the Zionists and the IRGC are equally fanatical, obsessed, and stubborn to fight this one 'to the last Iranian and Israeli' left...
Talk about putting all the eggs in one basket... and I'd think underground shelters for top brass meetings would be designed to prevent any sudden direct hits?
BTW, you mentioned Major-General Hossein Salami (CO IRGC) in two lists. Was he killed twice - at the meeting and at home, too?
Death is not sufficient excuse not to go to work
Kafkaesque
Ah sorry: Salami was hit in his residence. Have forgotten to remove him from the 'original list' in my notes - to 'place below'. Corrected now.
Thanks as always Tom. I can't find a source for your claim about the Knesset vote today though. Looks like Netanyahu passed a vote of no confidence yesterday?
In the eyes of Western politicians, this is Israel - and them roped-in - vs Iran. In the eyes of the global public (with maybe the exception of India), it is increasingly a case of Israel vs the world. To pose the famous question of Lenin: What is to be done?
Fordow is being attacked right know. Guess they are going all in.
Yup. Have added a related 'PS' just a few minutes ago.
So if Iran's air force gets destroyed there's no way the current government in Iran is going to be willing to put the necessary resources in this branch to rebuild it right? That's the only outcome I'm seeing, but if Iran does not have a modern air force this result will just happen again so this doesn't look good for the future of Iran.
It's definitely so that the Israelis are aiming not only to destroy the Iran's nuclear infrastructure to the degree where it might prove 'prohibitive' to rebuild it, but also to at least shake, if not topple the regime.
As for Iran's air force: the IRGC took care to debilitate it into near-inoperationality, already years ago. Now it's no factor any more.
Just for example: out of 60+ operational F-14s as of 2012 (and they could play a crucial role now), only some 7-8 were operational the last 2-3 years, and only some 2-3 were FMC.
I was aware from your previous writings the derelict state of the air force, I was just thinking that any attempt at recovery without actually building up a modern air force is futile and I don't see Iran's current leadership doing that. A shame a country with such potential has such foolish leadership.
'The leadership' of Iran is not 'just' those killed by the Israelis, but lots of other 'members of different cliques/groups': they have very different - primarily 'economic' - interests.
And so, since nobody 'important' was likely to cash a deft bribe if Iran would've imported any kind of advanced fighter-interceptor, nor the associated ground equipment, none were bought. Instead, there were lots of 'important people' who were cashing deftly from different missile projects...
Usually it happens that some country that wants to sell its military products and get big contracts, then they give good bribes and kickbacks to the local leadership. Only then something according to these schemes starts to be supplied to the army. I wonder why the Iranians and the Chinese do not cooperate in the field of aviation, if the Chinese were not against helping the Iranian regime with ballistic missiles?
Damn, this is some work and a half. That strike on the leadership was something else. I'm not sure if this is good or bad (yeah, younger guys who are more aggressive can move up, but no promise they are any smarter or better, just different). I am thinking the point may have been to disrupt the Iranian C2 during the initial strikes and other than knocking out the communications entirely, this would do it. For at least 12 hours the Iranian Military and IRGC was leaderless, and that is when the IDF plowed them under.
It's similar in the IRGC like in Ukraine, i.e. the ZSU: the last few years, the 'old farts' were foremost braking the 'young guard'.
The lower ranks are 'an entirely different quality'.
Why India lost planes while trying to attack where Israel managed to attack so far without losing any planes. Is it better tech, better strategy/tactics or a weaker opponent?
Because India originally went 'after terror camps only', instead of disabling the Pakistani IADS as first.
The Israelis know no such 'procedures': they demolish the IADS first before striking the actual target.
One unofficial source in Indian airforce has mentioned that all the planes gone down are because of missile defence and SAM attacks and PL-15 is not in the equation. Any thoughts..?
Yes, have heard that. And not convinced because there's no evidence for either.
All that's 'confirmed' (visually) are four IAF jets and 4 PAF jets shot down. What has got any of them remains unknown/unclear.
At the risk of stating the obvious, Pakistan also has latest gen air to air missiles equivalent to the R-37M, whereas Iran has clearly been shafted by Putin on the Su-35 deal (what are they, in Algeria or something?), and their domestic industry has put all its eggs into the basket of IRBMs.
The Su-35s in question are - despite all the reports on the contrary - still in Russia.
And Iran has its own variant/locally upgraded AIM-54 in service.
Impressive , @tom Cooper, as always... so both Pakistan and Iran were actually faking their Nuclear prgramme, the y couldn.t even buy a nuke from N Korea all these years? With command structure eeply penetrated by Mossad in the meantime as well (they knew averything but Oct 7 preps, of course)
Both Iran's nuclear program and its ballistic missile program - are outmatching those of Pakistan by WIDE margin.
The difference is the sophistication of Israel's attack in comparison to that of India: New Delhi 'didn't want to escalate' and thus, initially, targeted terror camps only. Israelis went all out right from the start.
So you consider Iran air defence better than Pakistan..?
Before the Israeli air strikes: yes, definitely so. By a wide margin.
At least equipment-wise: they were operating stuff specially designed to local requirements, partially based on experiences form the war with Iraq, partially on experiences from Lebanon and Syria.
Pakistan has got whatever the Chinese were ready to share, surely not their 'best'.
One more question. Pakistan already have around 150 nuclear warheads while Iran has none . While I agree that local R&D would be better in Iran case. But do not understand your deduction.
Would this mean Iran already has a number of nukes?
Russia's allies butchering each other. Not a great time for Putin.
Has israel helped Russia militarily in any way..?
Only indirectly, because the Middle East is very complicated. But numerous requests for Israel to send things to Ukraine were either denied or slow rolled when those requests would have had 0.0 impact upon Israel's ability to defend itself.
Yes.
It has wasted a HUGE amount of artillery ammunition flattening Gaza and killing its population.
The Ukrainians could have put that ammo to good use.
Israel also got Trump elected. So many people, disgusted at Biden's sycophantic support for Netanyahu, stayed away from the polling booths.
Trump is a worse choice
How can Iran retaliate?
Check videos of IRGCASF's ballistic missiles striking the HQ of Israeli Ministry of Defence and of Mossad in Tel Aviv, this evening...
If this war result in the removal of Islamic regime in Iran then it should continue. Apart from this regime Iran has the best human capital in Middle East. They should stop opposing Israel for their own sake .Arabs are no match for Iranians.
Iranians aren't Arabs.
That's what I have said Arabs are no match for Iranian. Iran have much better Human capital than Arabs.
As an English speaker, I think you might want edit that for clarity then? You might be thought to say that the Iranians should quit opposing Israel, Arabs are no match for Israelis as this was written. Which is wrong in several ways...
My point is Iranians will prevail in Middle East if they stop poking Israel since Arabs cannot compete against them.
Will incapacitating Iran have any influence on Russia's Shahed production or is it completely independent already?
Meanwhile, absolutely unrelated.
Will incapacitating Iran have any influence on Russia's Shahed production or is it completely independent already?
Not the least. I.e. yes, this is entirely independent.
Thanks for the quick summary of the attacks. I’m very surprised by the IRGCAF defunding the manned aircraft, it makes no sense!
From their POV, the only thing making sense. And they know better....