Operation Endless Wisdom

Hello everybody!

Woke up this morning to find out that, yes, at 02.35hrs this morning, local time, the USA launched an unprovoked aggression on Iran.

That is: according to official release by the Pentagon, seven Northrop-Grumman B-2A Spirit bombers of the US Air Force were deployed:

• 6 to strike the underground nuclear fuel-enrichment facility at Fordow (which, so far, was not attacked by Israel) with a total of 12 GBU-57B bombs calibre 13,607kg, and

• 1 to strike the underground nuclear fuel-enrichment facility at Natanz (claimed ‘destroyed’ by Israel, which actually knocked out only its power supply) with a total of 2 GBU-57B bombs. Additionally,

• USS Georgia (SSGN-729) - a former nuclear ballistic missile submarine, re-built to carry BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) - deployed 30 TLAMs to strike the (surface) nuclear-enrichment facilities in Esfahan (claimed ‘destroyed’ by Israel).

A B-2 bomber (left) about to in-flight refuel from a Boeing KC-46 tanker of the US Air Force.

The Iranians living and/or underway in the Fordrow area report that the strike caused a minor fire that was extinguished within 3 minutes. So much so, seems, nobody managed to capture a 'serious' video of the attacks: indeed, some were ridiculing that the related cheering from Israel was louder...

The ‘only’ column of smoke rising from the Fordow facility visible as of this morning.

Me thinks: this is little surprising considering GBU-57s were made to penetrate deep under the ground - depending on the type of soil at the targeted site: some 50-60 metres at least - before detonating. I.e. one is unlikely to see ‘their fuel-filled explosions’: more likely to feel the resulting ‘earthquakes’.

That might mean that the core of the Natanz facility - burried some 30 metres deep - was hit and destroyed. Whether anything similar is valid for the Fordow facility - usually assessed to be 80-90 metres deep, but Grossi (chief of the IAEA) said it’s 800 metres deep - … well, not so sure. Certainly enough, RUMINT has it the B-2s actually aimed their GBU-57s for the entrances to this complex (which sounds far more plausible to me).

As for Esfahan, the locals are reporting ‘nothing special’ was hit, nor happened. Sat-photos that became available in the meantime, are indicative of several ‘possible impacts’ by GBU-57s:

That much about Dumpf’s endless wisdom, his deal-making- and negotiating skills - and Obama’s lack of skill in negotiations with Iran.

**

Bibi was even wiser: Israel has violated its 'cease-fire' with ‘defeated’ Hezbollah, too, and flew additional air strikes against 'targets' in Lebanon...

In turn, this morning, the IRGCASF targeted Israel by (according to Israel), two waves with a total of 27 ballistic missiles (22 in the first and 5 in the second). Israel reported 'one impact in Haifa' and 11 wounded.

According to the IRGC, the 19th Wave of its Operation True Promise III, saw the deployment of a mix of old and new IRBMs, including Khorramshahr-4 (the heaviest IRBM in Iran’s arsenal), to strike

• Ben Gurion International,

• Israel’s biological & chemical research centre in Ness Ziona, and

• different command & control bases.

Of particular interest is that facility in Ness Ziona, some 20km outside downtown Tel Aviv. As far as is known (foremost from Iranian sources), this is... or was... (see attachments) a facility for development of biological and chemical weaponry,

Considering official Israel reported just one ‘impact’ and then ‘in Haifa’, and permitted the release of photographs and videos showing solely damage to civilian objects… but nothing about Ness Ziona… well, then this didn’t happen.

BTW, this IRGCASF’s ballistic missile strike was either combined with an UAV-strike, or the latter took place slightly earlier (simply not yet sure).

***

…and ‘that’s it’. I.e. this much is known to me by now. Of course, official Tehran - for example the Speaker of the Majlis - reacted with statements like, ‘The response to America is inevitable, and the first step is the destruction of Israel’. Other Iranian officials are talking about the legal angle of attacking nuclear facilities, and emphasising that the international law and nuclear treaties have completely failed to protect their program.

For example, Aragchi, the foreign Minister of the IRI concluded (between others):

• Everyone should know that we pursued diplomacy, but the US and the Zionist regime launched aggressive attacks on Iran and its people, and we will use all our capabilities to defend ourselves.

• It’s illogical to demand from Iran return to diplomacy

• The US is not diplomatic and only understands the language of force and threats. They have shown that they do not respect the international charter and international law and do not adhere to any of them.

• NPT has failed to protect us.

• For now, there’s no time for diplomatic solutions. When the aggression against Iran stops, we can talk about how to continue the diplomatic path.

‘Ayatollah’ Khamenei, however, issued no statements whatsoever (as of the noon local time).

***

Now, what I ‘know’ - or can assess with any reasonable dose of certainty - is what I’ve posted above. Because of this, I would like to politely request everybody not to send me questions like ‘what is your assessment’ and ‘what do you think about this and that’. Especially not in regards of different people hysterically announcing ‘Third World War’.

I've got no skills in online psychoanalysis, no super-natural capability in assessing things I haven't seen, no ability to predict future at all, and commenting other people's opinions about World War III is not my strongest point either.

Foremost: wars are extremely unpredictable affairs - which is why it's always better not to start one...

Be patient, take a deep breath… if necessary (and possible): get yourself something to drink before doing that - and wait for the things to develop.

***

Note for the end… just something that casually came to my mind: on 22 September 1980, Saddam Hussein launched his '3-days Special Military Operation' against Iran.

It took him eight years and the financial and economic ruin of Iraq, to drew a draw..

In the same year, the Christian Phalangists - Israel's allies in Lebanon - hijacked the Iranian ambassador to Beirut and bestially tortured him, before dumping his body next to some minor road.

Thus began a ‘secret’ war between Israel and Iran. 45 years later, this is still going on.

Thus, a part of me can’t avoid looking forward to see both how, and how ‘soon’ can Dumpf extract the USA out of the brawl into which he (and seven earlier presidents of the USA, ‘minus Carter’) has got the country entangled. Principally out of a mix of greed and blanc idiotism.