In fact, it cannot be other way round. If, e.g. Hizballah would elect more moderate leaders now, then Hizballah extremists would left Hizballah and make or join other more radical organization and swallow/defeat Hizballah later. E.g. similarly when PLO went moderate and Hamas took power in Gaza instead. (So, Hamas cannot become moderate for the same reason, too.)
Israel has killed leaders of opposing organisations for years. They do succed in killing. Maybe they weaken their oponents in the short term. The long term effects are of course hardened opposition and leaders that figths because they have no alternative. The Israel kilos those too. But they dont get peace that way, and they alway up the ante. Every hands a looser, every hands a winner. But Israel never compromise, so the other side cannot.
Sadly, many people turn to religion in times of hardship.
For most Palestinians this is Islam. And Islam (on the later half of the Quran) has a very militaristic, intolerant side. Particularly with its promises of rewards in the afterlife for those who die fighting for it.
Of course for observant Israeli Jews, the Old Testament has plenty of exhortations to kill the unbelievers as well. It is rather sad that the significant percentage of non-observant population of Israel seems to have taken those exhortations to heart as well.
Sry, but I do remember neutralising of one person in a specific role and even on top. What I don't remember is neutralising number one and the suspected number two in one go.
Especially the first strike, that also killed an Iranian general, most likely killed quite other leading personell as well. Hence, it may occur, like with the drug cartels for example, that you get plenty of groups that are fighting for attention through more and extremer attacks on Israel.
Can also be mistaken and Iran just takes full control over all of those...
I can see your point that having an older/wiser patriarchy offers a cooling effect on the younger more fanatical generation, and now that the “old guys” with the most experience gone, means the youngsters are able to rise up in force. However, I think the brands “Hamas” and “Hezbollah” are now not able to recover as before and that the Iranian regime is now the de-facto controller of these brands. I have seen these two groups as “separate” entities, they are not national/legal entities and so Iran can quite easily refrain from escalating as it still has a largely untouched militant base of senior age. If Israel were to flatten the Iranian embassy in Beirut however, Iran being a sovereign country, is almost OBLIGATED to respond, but when its little side-hustle of supporting a militant group is cut down to size, it may have a dented ego but still possesses an excuse not to interfere too much due to the full knowledge it will lose a full scale war. Iran did officially hold back this year, it obviously supported behind the scenes, but I am not convinced this current hunt by the IDF against the terrorist organisations will escalate into a full war. I agree though, the desire to see Israel suffer, has grown and if you look at the footage of scenes of supporters who cheer on Nasrallah during a speech, they look pretty fired up and it will take a little more than a sofa and a hug to soften these lads down.
Sure, Hezbollah has imposed itself upon the Shi'a of Lebanon (just like the IRGC imposed itself upon all of Iranians and much of their neighborhood), BUT: they do not act like some sort of 'established political party' in the West.
The essence of their ideology is religion, and then that of the 'Twelver Shi'a', where the more they suffer, the more 'martyrs' they have, the more likely is the ‘God’ to listen to their prayers, because they have proven they’re trying hard enough. Means: both organisations are flourishing when things of this kind happen to them.
Unsurprisingly, they're thriving from the despair, suffering and misery. And, in the case of the Shi'a, 'the West' and Israel are making it so easy for them to thrive.
And regarding the way they're going to hit back: ceretainly not in fashion expected by Israel (or 'the West').
They don’t look any more fired up to me than the Gazans beating the bodies of dead young Israeli girls being paraded through the strip.
I think your analysis is spot on. Really it’s already a war. It’s just that the planet doesn’t usually do war the way our ancestors did it. You know; kill them all and let god sort them out.
That’s true, my point was that the number of these fanatics are not getting less as a result of the IDF response. I think these hysterical savages will just get more, Israel has merely bought some time, but not much more.
If we hold Israel to a ceasefire when they are on a winning run, or worse, insist that Ukraine fight with both arms tied behind their backs, then yes, it is a sad state of how civilization has evolved. Nowadays Hamas and Hezbollah are seen as victims and celebrated as heroes in WESTERN universities, whilst real victims like a clear cut case of “land invasion” as with Russian against Ukraine is being sold off as: “how dare the victim defend itself! Their thrashing about is costing us all money and some lives. How inconvenient!”
Very few politicians have the right moral standing that can unite even the opposition. It was easier for people like Reagan… as a random example.
Sparked by the invasion of Yugoslavia by Germany and further fueled by the measures taken to repress the resistance during the war by 1945 twenty percent of the Yugoslav population became 'fanatics' and were involved in various resistance organization.
And the Nazis also referred to any members of a resistance group as 'terrorists.'
Both Hamas and Hezbollah were formed as responses to Israel's occupation of Gaza/West Bank and Lebanon. Israel may 'destroy' them but it is sowing the 'Dragons' Teeth' of potentially even wider resistance.
And, sadly Israel is taking resources away from Ukraine which is fighting a justifiable defence against invasion.
> Nowadays Hamas and Hezbollah are seen as victims and celebrated as heroes in WESTERN universities
I don't think this is really the case. It seems like you are failing to make a distinction between Hamas and the civilians in Gaza. This is the same distinction which Israel refuses to make. One can oppose Hamas and still be sympathetic to the innocents killed in Gaza.
I was not addressing the distinction at all, nor implying that the innocents and Hamas members are the same. I was referring to parallels where victims are being blamed, this silly approach is cynical and contrarian in nature and reflective of how simplistic one’s knowledge has to be, in order to hold such a view.
To be clear, the radical supporters I was referring to, are confirmed Hezbollah “refills”, not random members of the Palestinian public…
My paragraph you quoted is referring to the MANY universities in America where students were blocking others from entering classes, behaving like hooligans and shouting pro-Hamas/Hezbollah chants against Israel and denouncing or totally disregarding the terroristic acts of these two organisations. Their protests were obnoxious. I am not against peaceful protests…
My criticism is directed to the supposedly educated students who make a choice to blame Israel for their acts of self defence, blaming the victims of October 7 for the collective as “having brought it upon themselves”.
I expect such rhetoric from an lmam, or from someone where access to information is restricted and brainwashing is possible, but from those from an university?? I find this to be too bizarre to make up.
I appreciate the topic is complex, hence I will not enter into a discussion on the causes, but when an obvious terrorist act becomes a propagandistic trope, I get worked up. :))
You damage to your credibility when you assert there was any reason OTHER than Hezbollah aggression (8000 rockets fired at civilians just since October 7, constant threats, etc) when Israel retaliates. Why do you disparage and mock Putin yet support his ally Iran and the Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah? Israel is (and has been) a stronger democracy that Ukraine.
Russia reverted to dictatorship (after a very short attempt at actual democracy) and Putin is a despot. Russia's theatrical pretense of a democracy doesn't fool anyone, least of all the Russian civilians I asked when in Russia as well as in western countries.
You're right that he rigs elections, but he still has considerable support. Especially now that he's invading Ukraine, its a distraction to help bring in supporters who were opposed to him but have an imperialist view towards Ukraine. Its an old dictator's trick to invade a neighbour when they're having issues at home.
I admire Ukraine for its work in progress on democracy. Israel's parliamentary version of democracy is strengthened by the diversity of the political parties who represent constituencies as varied as Islamic, Israeli Arabs, Zionists, Labor, Likud, and religious parties. While this often leads to odd coalitions, Israeli democracy represents all constituencies.
I apologize, I thought my concern about credibility was concise.
Your Ukraine updates have details that are very consistent with widely reported facts and expand on that basis in a way that gives your reports credibility. For example, you have documented how Ukraine reached into Russia to destroy Russian arms that were being staged or prepared to attack Ukrainian civilian and military targets. You take pains to clarify Ukraine has not targeted civilians. While your mockery of Putin ("Puddding") and his military ("cuddling") seems unnecessary and makes your sympathies clear, this mockery does not seem to have interfered with reporting facts without biases, and in fact you have expressed you concerns with US and European leaders.
IDF has targeted only legitimate military targets in Lebanon. IDF has targeted legitimate military targets (weapons depots and operatives) in response to over 8000 Hezbollah rockets fired at civilians since October 7, without targeting civilians. This is directly parallel to Ukraine bombing military targets in Russia. IDF does not have HQ's and weapons depots in civilian areas. In contrast, similar to Hamas, Hezbollah establishes military bases and stores their munitions in the midst of civilians. Similar to Russia, Hamas and Hezbollah routinely target civilians who are far from military targets. The fact that your detailed reporting does not point that out diminishes your credibility.
IDF has targeted only enemy operatives (who helpfully self identified by carrying beepers and walkie talkies) , military HQ's / locations, and weapons depots. IDF timed the destruction of Hezbollah's HQ to Nasrallah's presence and Netanyahu's UN speech. We don't know if IDF knew Nasrallah had such a vast munitions depot at his HQ. I figure IDF was just lucky to have eliminated Iranian evil at the same time.
This military response has re-aligned Israelis behind Netanyahu, including opponents who insisted Netanyahu was pursing Hamas just to distract from legal problems. I think a lot of Israelis (among others) have been surprised to see how many munitions Hezbollah planned to send to kill innocent Israelis.
While many were surprised the IDF had not responded to Hezbollah's killing of a dozen innocent Druze kids playing soccer, time has shown IDF timed their response to a time and place of their choosing.
Overall, the fact that you ascribe motives to Netanyahu that (a) nobody can establish using facts and (b) his political opponents sometimes espouse (and sometimes not) damages your credibility.
Aha! So, the usual, 'Tom can perfectly anaylse any other wars, but when it comes to Israel, you're just wrong, biased, incompetent and anti-Semitic, because everybody supporting Israel is not biased, incompetent, and the least anti-Semitic', of course.
Except you're not analyzing the Israel related wars. Your Ukrainian updates detail military actions. You don't cover Israeli / Hamas / Hezbollah / Houthi military actions.
Interesting you hear this message so often that you call it "the usual."
And I find it interesting you're surprised I hear this message so often.
While the answer is simple: because the mass of people commenting about my 'work' - have never read anything else but 1-2 blog-posts about the 'Arab-Israeli conflict', and still consider themselves for qualified to explain me how to do my job.
Thus, here for your information, because you're certainly different in this regards...
Look Israel stans, you do yourself no favors trying to start the story on October 7th and play the victim card. You do get, don't you, that nobody actually cares about whether Israel survives? That those American Evangelicals who back Israel are only doing it because their belief system about the End of Days requires Israel to be around to get almost entirely wiped out?
If so-called "Western Civilization" and the idiots at the bottom of the pyramid scheme want to commit collective suicide, fine. But can you at least be less banality of evil as you go about it? It's fucking embarrassing.
(1) Ain't no Israel stan, I just pay attention to history.
(2) Nobody thinks the story started October 7. No matter when you want to start the timeline (1993 Oslo, 1948 Israel founded & Arabs attacked, 1933 Peel, 1918 Ottoman demise, 1917 Balfour, ~1870 land purchases, AD/BC Christ, or 3000BC) Israel wins each time.
(3) I give you credit for admitting you don't care if Israel survives. You face a problem because Israel has demonstrated they care if Israel survives, and understand their people will be raped and killed if they lose. Israelis have proven willing to coexist multiple times and (mostly) have learned to crush those who try to wipe them out.
(4) I knew Islam was a death cult and don't know any American Evangelicals are, but won't waste my time learning about it.
(5) While I'm not banal about evil, it is pleasing to watch the evildoers (Iran, Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah) lose time after time. It's sad for the innocent people in those regions but nothing I can do about it.
The overwhelming majority of killing and raping is done by Israelis and the IDF. Remember when Israelis stormed that military base demanding the right to rape Palestinians? A truly revolting society. Far more sick, violent, and twisted than even the worst Islamic countries of the region.
However, one good thing came out of October 7: the scales are being lifted from people's eyes and they're seeing Israel as it really is. People are being un-propagandized and this cannot be undone. In fact it's accelerating, largely due to Israelis themselves. Because they live in a racist apartheid state controlled by fanatics most Israelis can't even fathom the idea of reigning themselves in or putting a nice veneer on their detestable beliefs and behavior. Their minds are so warped by hate and racism, their society so deeply sick and demented, so used to being a bully and never being told no, so used to viewing everything that isn't Israeli as below them, that even thinking about how it may appear to others is alien to their supremacist minds. And so they carry on being Israeli while the rest of the world watches in horror and disgust.
Yes, over the years many more Arabs have been killed than Israelis, but it's not like the Arabs haven't tried really hard to kill all the Jews.
I don't know of IDF demanding to rape Palestinians, especially at a military base. What you describe does sound pretty sick, especially if you say its worse than what Islamic countries have done. Where was that reported?
I haven't seen anything like you describe (scales lifted from peoples' eyes and such) but it does sound gruesome.
Giving up is not a choice for the Israelis. Israel needs the hostages (innocent people) back and the decades of Arab attacks to stop.
In contrast, the Ukrainians could give up. Ukrainians would simply return to the life of Russian slavery, just like Soviet times. Arabs have been clear: if any one of their attacks over the decades had succeeded, they would immediately kill all the Jews. The Israelis have been fortunate their adversaries are ham handed.
The bumper sticker says COEXIST. Sign and observe the Oslo accords.
Giving up is not an option for Israel… that seems to include giving up war… since you cannot even make a cease fire with Hamas in order to get the hostages back and a deal with Hizbollah at the same time. If you dont give up war but continue you are bound to loose it. It doesnt matter whether you have one all others bouts. At the moment Israel is not even giving its opponents a chance to make a peace. Only abject surrender. Where you would have to trust Israel. Not going to happen. Israel has to give up something. Like war. Like coveting their neighbours land and stealing it. Like treating their neighbours as animals. (And yes, this all becomes mutual.) But you cannot win forever. Without US support you would be lost. And sorry, you cannot take that for granted for ever.
Ummm - you have heard of Oslo accords, right? Or perhaps Camp David? Or Peel or the many other deals where Israel agreed to coexist but the Arabs / Palestinians said NO each time?
By all metrics the Israelis have caused amazingly few civilian deaths despite Hamas and Hezbollah specifically putting their military and command assets in the middle of (or more commonly under) civilian shields.
(6) Also really, really bizarre to see a suggestion that Putin and Netanyahu are, or ever have been, allies. OTOH, Germany, France, and UK have been allies for decades, so maybe Putin and Netanyahu could also become allies. They both seem too old for that to ever happen.
Like, read anything about how russia lets Israel bomb Syria. You think that happens without coordination? An agreement? Come on.
And it’s only one step from that to recognizing the simple common interest in a deal that keeps Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, et al bound to russia but also unable to strike Israel as hard as they might because losing russian aid would suck.
This is literally international diplomacy 101, people. It’s how the effing system has always worked. Fans choose to be blind.
The ease and the accuracy of acquiring so wide scope of strike targets tells me that it is also about tidying up loose ends from the Civil War Era. Thus, there are inside undercurrents in Lebanon. Plenty of them. Many of them desperate enough to make deals with Israel.
I have a hunch that regardless of any (angry) new blood it will still end with severely reduced influence and military strength.
When I try and think of a strategic plan for Israel that extends beyond keeping Netanyahu out prison, the only thing I can think of is a replay of the Armenian genocide on the Palestinians. This does not mean that Israel will kill millions of Palestinians, only the Israel will continue to kill thousands and destroy the homes of millions until most 80-90% of Palestinians leave the land between the river and the sea. I don’t think this is a good thing, but in a world where Russia keeps 20% of Ukraine and China invades Taiwan, displacing 7 million Palestinians fits right in. And while Turkey still gets mad when ever anyone mentions Armenians from Anatolia, no one mentions them very often. I prefer the world of Pax Americana that I grew up in, but I think a return to the 19th century great game of empires and regional powers is pretty strong possibility.
The crimes committed against the Palestinians are "Pax Americana." There would have been a two state solution decades ago if that's what the US really wanted. Settlerism continues because America permits it. The malicious total destruction of Gaza as a habitable place for humans continues because America permits it. The mass slaughter of civilians continues because America permits it. Not only do they permit it, they fund it, they supply the weapons, and when you see the fruits of these actions are piles of dead children, their mangled bodies shrouded in grey dust save for the blood, the media and state dept are there to whitewash it and remind you that Israel is our democratic ally and, well, there was a known Hamas commander in that refugee camp so what choice did they have they were using human shields do you support Hamas is ISIS baby in an oven antisemitism terrorism antisemitism terrorism terrorism terrorism.
This is an excellent natural experiment proving that International Relations has always been a complete and utter sham. So much for my undergrad degree.
Lesson: hard power is everything, soft power is BS. Those who can do what they will, others suffer what they must. None of us matter in a world of warring oligarchs.
Fascinating to see Iran and Hezbollah's lack of effective response. So they've been bluffing all along, too. Unless Israel just empowered the faction that will advocate a mass bombardment of civilian sites as revenge.
Exactly what Netanyahu, Biden, and Putin all want.
Waltz is one of the biggest idiots, along with the other neo-Realists. Problem with the field of IR is the entire thing was set up to explain/justify US power. It has no basis in science, but con artists get PhDs in it anyway.
Soft power = journalists and academics in the US Northeast say nice things about you. That's it.
Power is power is power. It's a physical quantity, demonstrated in the field. All else is bluff, as Ukraine keeps on proving.
No, really. Power is the effort of other humans you can call upon, either because they are willing to provide it, or believe that compliance will be forced on them by the first group if they refuse. In this regard, even soft power can be a thing, though it's arguably a lot more incidental and a lot less reliable than hard power, lacking the second leg.
But you're right that hard power should be quantifiable to a degree. Putin's power turned out to be a bluff precisely because his minions had all acted like yes-men but failed to work toward his vision of imperial glory by organizing an effective fighting force.
Soft power BS? I dont think so if Israel moves ground forces into Libanon Hizbollah will benefit from its support from the population. I think it helps them quite a lot. But we shal see I guess. No doubt thus is not the end of the war.
Andrew, while hard power probably trumps soft power in many situations I say you are the BS when you claim that soft power is BS. This can only be said by an American. Having been on the recieving end of that soft power in a small country I can guarantee you that everything from language, games, movies and songs, literature, research, education etc etc shapes your thinking. If you visit Norway you could turn on the radio, Go to a movie, talk to almost any one in English. And we have been allied to you since 1948. Of course this matters. We listen to the US far beyond what we should. And we are not the only such country. Think about the fact so many speaks English. We are influenced and shaped by soft power. (Having said all this I dont know what they thougth you in IR, so that may be BS. But soft power exists and US benefits from it.
I would add that occasional Ukrainian citizens correcting rocket strikes on their own city for ideological reasons is an example of soft power as well.
You choose to buy American crap, like lots of Americans.
But here’s the secret - it isn’t even really American. Just because some international companies pump out trash with America as the primary first audience doesn’t tie it in any way to anything remotely real in American life.
Soft power seems to matter, then it doesn’t. The calculations reset when hard power comes to play. Why are Japan and Germany and so many countries still beholden to the USA? Material connections forged during the occupation. Hard power. Soft power is just its residue.
As much as I dislike Netanyahu and his extremist partners, I dislike Nasrallah and Hezbollah even more. The only reason for Hezbollah's existence was bringing terror to Israel, and, for that matter, to Lebanon as well, and Syria, and lots or other places. Netanyahu may have pursued his own political goals ordering this air strike, and those goals are not necessarily aligned with the interests of most Israelis, but nonetheless, when people like Nasrallah finally go to Heaven, I would say it's generally a good thing for the rest of humankind.
Yes, ultraorthodox settlers in the west bank are pretty bad indeed, and the fact that they’ve basically highjacked the Israeli government is even worse. Ben-Gvir should be in jail, not in the ministerial chair. But that doesn’t make Nasralla any better. Ideally, he should have been in jail as well – if both ended up there some 20…30 years ago, a lot of dead people could have been alive today, and everybody might’ve been a lot happier. So, for now I’m calling the bomb blast a second-best option for Nasralla, and still hoping to see Ben-Gvir in jail one day.
...with which we're back to why Hezbollah came into being. You've never heard of Israelis massacring thousands of Lebanese Shi'a while 'bombing Palestinian terrorists', back in the 1970s?
Also, what can you say about the creation and composition of the state of Lebanon?
Oh, yes, I heard a lot about Israeli crimes against peaceful Lebanese civilians from the most reliable information source – Soviet TV and newspapers. I also happened to personally know one Lebanese guy – there in the USSR as well, in the 80th: he was a Sunni, and seemed to hate Jews, Alawites, Palestinians of any kind, Shias of both Amal and Hezbollah varieties, Christians, Israel, Syria and Iran, USA and France – all of them in just about equal measure, as far as I remember.
And, sure: Hezbollah came into being in response to Israeli crimes, and Israel is what it is in response to Hezbollah crimes…violence breeds more violence, extremism breeds more extremism. One way to see the whole Arab-Israeli conflict is a perpetual victory or extremists over moderates.
However, I’d say that Hezbollah stands out even in that circle of extremism, by complete lack of any positive agenda. Even Hamas has one, however ugly and unrealistic: “let’s slaughter all the Jews, and then we’ll build a beautiful peaceful Palestine”. But Hezbollah is all about fighting. Aside from Israel, it’s already fighting half the Lebanon, and Syria, and presumably does a lot of dirty work in Europe and elsewhere on behalf of its masters in Tehran. And if Israel suddenly fell into hell, Hezbollah would be in a mortal fight with somebody else the next day. At least, I’m not aware about any peaceful plans on its agenda.
And therefore, sorry, but let me rejoice at Mr. Nasrallah departure, however bad are those who sent him on his last voyage.
Not true. At least not much more than any other government which maintains an armed force. Hezbollah is deeply embedded in the social and political fabric of Lebanon. Besides the militant wing they are also a political party and operate all kinds of social services, schools, hospitals, garbage collection and public amenities. You can read about all this in radical Islamist sites like CNN and the New York Times.
"People here see Hezbollah as a political movement and a social service provider as much as it is a militia."
I suspect that the share of military expenditures in Hezbollah budget is a lot higher than for any government...maybe only Ukraine comes close. And Hezbollah "services" turn out ruinously expensive for the rest of Lebanon.
You just advised your books in response to my very negative (and, quite possibly, underinformed) view, so, naturally, I wonder if yours might be less negative. No prejudice meant.
True dat! I wonder if an Israeli invasion of Lebanon will make Erdoghan get off his duff and push further into Syria? Probably not what the IRGC wants either.
I would expect him not to. Occupying land is costly, and the Turkish economy is not exactly in good health. Besides, they already control a big chunk of the remaining anti-Assadist Sunni resistance, and Kurds would only give them trouble. Erdogan fashions himself as this shrewd regional mediator between everyone around, so he will probably just keep doing this, milking the position for all it's worth and then some.
Enmity there is ancient and its pull extreme. Even the crusader kingdoms, nine hundred years ago, took sides and turned on each other. In the Levant, do as the Levantines do.
"Half of the West" is very exaggerated. Asad with some Syrian Christians tried to made such PR, but in conservative groups they failed mostly because of their anti-Israel stances. And there are not so many left-wing or liberal groups who care about Christian religion and are more "realistic" about Israel opinions. Moreover some Syrian Christians emigrants spoke against this PR in Western media - maybe because many Syrian Christians were tortured and killed by Asad, too. They are not united in this regard.
Half of the West is indeed very exaggerated. It is more like 98.99% percent.
Try to walk into any political movement/party in the West and tell them how Syrian rebels from the armed resistance should have been supported against Assad and his "secular" supporters. Then comeback and describe the reaction you received.
Friendly tip : dont do it if your skin is slightly brown or you will get into big troubles.
Try to the the opposite, tell them to support Asad against anyone. You get the same answer always - nope, we don't care. For 98% of western politicians Syria is just bardak they do not want to mess with.
Telling you are pro Assad ence pro butchering a near 1 million and forcing out of their home over 10 millions Arabs might get you answer from indifference to active support.
But telling you are pro Syrian opposition. I mean real opposition so armed opposition will be met universally with suspicion up to insults as "Islamo-Facsit" and a likely meeting to the nearby police station if you are not perfectly white.
Also it is not lost on anyone how you reduce fight for freedom and safety to a "BaRdAk" when it concerns brown skin Arab subhumans while you check in and comment on a daily basis here when it concerns the more worthwhile white skin Ukrainians.
Regarding Lebanese, that is delusional. Lebanese fully understand the only reason Nasrallah was killed was due to Israeli expansionism including the Israelis desire to invade and occupy Lebanon.
And while you probably dont care and probably cant notice the difference between different brown skin people, Lebanese are most likely noticing Israel started to assassinate non-Hezbollah Lebanese too
For all the talk about sectarianism in MENA, Westerners are the worse with the way they too often believe sects can be the all and everything. In truth only Westerners are so blinded by sect and racism that they massively support Israelis crimes under the pretext of "Western Judeo-Christian civilization" while Israel kills Levantine Christians just like it kills Muslims.
Iran taking active control of Hezbollah was my thought as well. This reminds of Israel's "flying artillery" during the War of Attrition and how all that achieved was a Soviet intervention and massive expansion of Egypt's military.
I think plenty of people in Lebanon will be happy to give coordinates to Israel when that happens. And then suddenly, some 'coup attempt' will be discovered, and thus Hezbollah units (and: people) will be disarmed and disbanded (and disappear) en masse.
Disbanded by who? No doubt there are many in Lebabon who would like to see it happen, but all the other factions are so weak that it's hard to see that happening. Also if Iran intervenes, I imagine it would not be so overt, similar to Syria.
The Christians, who were a minority already when the state of Lebanon was created by the French - and that in complete disregard for what the local population wanted?
Based on my reading there was a reasonably amicable sharing of power prior to Israel expelling Palestinians during and after the '48 Israeli War of 'Independence.'
The fact that most of the refugees were Muslim and would potentially give the Muslim politicians an unbreakable lock on power if enfranchised was a major spark for the civil war.
The Iranian regime is fundamentally terrorist. In their design, they openly declare that they want to terrorize the whole world.
Paragraph 5 of Article 2 of the constitution states that the role of imams is “to ensure the continuation of the Islamic revolution,” and in the preamble of the constitution, in the section “Ideology of the army,” it directly states that: ” In the formation and equipping of the country's defense forces, due attention should be paid to faith and ideology as the main criteria. Thus, the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps should be organized in accordance with this purpose, and they will be responsible not only for the protection and preservation of the country's borders, but also for fulfilling the ideological mission of jihad in the name of Allah, that is, the expansion of sovereignty the law of God throughout the world.”
This book contains the fatwas of Ayatollah Khomeini, the first leader of Islamic Iran, on the basis of whose teachings the state now exists. So he gives the following definition of jihad. I quote page 2: ”Jihad means the conquest of all non-Muslim territories. Such a war may well be declared after the formation of an Islamic government worthy of the name, at the direction of the Imam or on his orders. It will then be the duty of every able-bodied adult male to become a volunteer for this war of conquest, the ultimate goal of which is to extend the authority of the Quranic law from one end of the Earth to the other.”
To complete the picture, I want to quote another fatwa from Khomeini, which speaks volumes. I quote the first paragraph of page 27 of the Little Green Book: “There are eleven unclean things: urine, feces, semen, bones of the dead, blood, a dog, a pig, a man and a woman who are not Muslims, wine, beer, the sweat of a camel that eats garbage.” I think that comments are unnecessary.
As for the person of Qasem Suleimani, his entire biography suggests that he was a talented genocidal, murderer, rapist and organizer of terrorist attacks. According to international law, its liquidation was a legal measure. Why? Soleimani was gathering all the Shia mercenaries around the world to carry out the genocide of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq. These Shiite mercenaries killed and robbed the civilian population. Iran through its Shiite majority in the Iraqi parliament and the Shiite Kataib Hezbollah police force, has control over Iraq and is using that country's resources to wage other wars. The same applies to what is left of the territory of Syria and Lebanon. Therefore, I do not agree with Tom's conclusions that Israel is to blame for the provocations. Iran does not need to be provoked because its regime openly says that their main goal is the destruction of Israel and the United States. This is declared in the Iranian constitution.
It takes a special sort of genius to make Iran look like the good guys. Like Hamas, all Hezbollah need to do is survive and watch the world turn against Israel.
Austria veered to the right in a watershed election on Sunday as the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) stormed to victory, marking the first time since World War II that a party rooted in Nazi ideology prevailed in a national ballot.
The anti-migrant, Russia-friendly FPÖ won more than 29 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results, putting it about three points ahead of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which currently leads the government. The ÖVP suffered a record loss to finish with 26 percent.
Presumably they will now support Ukraine because Putin claims they are also nazis.......
Make sense, the election results do. After all, it was SO good for Austria in the original Nazi era, they first had that chancellor murdered, then a few years later the country annexed to the Reich, which did away even with the very name of Austria. Who in their right mind wouldn't want that?
Interesting write up. Thank you. The Israelis are quite committed to this fight, whatever the IRGC does in its reforms is going to be met by a powerful response. It indeed seems like just the beginning to a more bloody conflict on both sides. With all thats going on at the moment, I think its worth even questioning whether the Iranian president's death was not foul play. Iran and Hezbollah for now seems to have been caught completely off guard by Israel's response.
I mean, in the Gaza Strip, after one year, the Israelis can't claim they've destroyed more than 35% of Hamas and/or more than 35% of its tunnel system. They have massacred nearly 50,000 civilians and over 15,000 of children, though.
... so 'powerful', that response, that it's a 'genocide, live on TV'...
Keep the war going, to stay in power. Escalate, escalate, escalate.
An accurate assessment as always sadly. And i do mean sadly. How many more Israeli's, Palestinians and who knows who else will die before things 'settle down'? Seeing as 'settling down' is probably the best we can hope for now.
The wrong kind of power and the wrong kind of people. A deadly combination 🤷🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️
So Netanyahu is killing the "moderates" to get people on the other side to keep him in power. Awful
In fact, it cannot be other way round. If, e.g. Hizballah would elect more moderate leaders now, then Hizballah extremists would left Hizballah and make or join other more radical organization and swallow/defeat Hizballah later. E.g. similarly when PLO went moderate and Hamas took power in Gaza instead. (So, Hamas cannot become moderate for the same reason, too.)
Israel has killed leaders of opposing organisations for years. They do succed in killing. Maybe they weaken their oponents in the short term. The long term effects are of course hardened opposition and leaders that figths because they have no alternative. The Israel kilos those too. But they dont get peace that way, and they alway up the ante. Every hands a looser, every hands a winner. But Israel never compromise, so the other side cannot.
Sadly, many people turn to religion in times of hardship.
For most Palestinians this is Islam. And Islam (on the later half of the Quran) has a very militaristic, intolerant side. Particularly with its promises of rewards in the afterlife for those who die fighting for it.
Of course for observant Israeli Jews, the Old Testament has plenty of exhortations to kill the unbelievers as well. It is rather sad that the significant percentage of non-observant population of Israel seems to have taken those exhortations to heart as well.
Not exactly unbelievers, those so offensive to God that the land ‘vomits them out’. No question of converting the Canaanites
Sry, but I do remember neutralising of one person in a specific role and even on top. What I don't remember is neutralising number one and the suspected number two in one go.
Especially the first strike, that also killed an Iranian general, most likely killed quite other leading personell as well. Hence, it may occur, like with the drug cartels for example, that you get plenty of groups that are fighting for attention through more and extremer attacks on Israel.
Can also be mistaken and Iran just takes full control over all of those...
I can see your point that having an older/wiser patriarchy offers a cooling effect on the younger more fanatical generation, and now that the “old guys” with the most experience gone, means the youngsters are able to rise up in force. However, I think the brands “Hamas” and “Hezbollah” are now not able to recover as before and that the Iranian regime is now the de-facto controller of these brands. I have seen these two groups as “separate” entities, they are not national/legal entities and so Iran can quite easily refrain from escalating as it still has a largely untouched militant base of senior age. If Israel were to flatten the Iranian embassy in Beirut however, Iran being a sovereign country, is almost OBLIGATED to respond, but when its little side-hustle of supporting a militant group is cut down to size, it may have a dented ego but still possesses an excuse not to interfere too much due to the full knowledge it will lose a full scale war. Iran did officially hold back this year, it obviously supported behind the scenes, but I am not convinced this current hunt by the IDF against the terrorist organisations will escalate into a full war. I agree though, the desire to see Israel suffer, has grown and if you look at the footage of scenes of supporters who cheer on Nasrallah during a speech, they look pretty fired up and it will take a little more than a sofa and a hug to soften these lads down.
Mind the 'you can't kill an idea'.
Sure, Hezbollah has imposed itself upon the Shi'a of Lebanon (just like the IRGC imposed itself upon all of Iranians and much of their neighborhood), BUT: they do not act like some sort of 'established political party' in the West.
The essence of their ideology is religion, and then that of the 'Twelver Shi'a', where the more they suffer, the more 'martyrs' they have, the more likely is the ‘God’ to listen to their prayers, because they have proven they’re trying hard enough. Means: both organisations are flourishing when things of this kind happen to them.
Unsurprisingly, they're thriving from the despair, suffering and misery. And, in the case of the Shi'a, 'the West' and Israel are making it so easy for them to thrive.
And regarding the way they're going to hit back: ceretainly not in fashion expected by Israel (or 'the West').
Very good point Tom! Both sides thrive in misery and persecution, and would melt away in peace and prosperity.
They don’t look any more fired up to me than the Gazans beating the bodies of dead young Israeli girls being paraded through the strip.
I think your analysis is spot on. Really it’s already a war. It’s just that the planet doesn’t usually do war the way our ancestors did it. You know; kill them all and let god sort them out.
That’s true, my point was that the number of these fanatics are not getting less as a result of the IDF response. I think these hysterical savages will just get more, Israel has merely bought some time, but not much more.
If we hold Israel to a ceasefire when they are on a winning run, or worse, insist that Ukraine fight with both arms tied behind their backs, then yes, it is a sad state of how civilization has evolved. Nowadays Hamas and Hezbollah are seen as victims and celebrated as heroes in WESTERN universities, whilst real victims like a clear cut case of “land invasion” as with Russian against Ukraine is being sold off as: “how dare the victim defend itself! Their thrashing about is costing us all money and some lives. How inconvenient!”
Very few politicians have the right moral standing that can unite even the opposition. It was easier for people like Reagan… as a random example.
Sparked by the invasion of Yugoslavia by Germany and further fueled by the measures taken to repress the resistance during the war by 1945 twenty percent of the Yugoslav population became 'fanatics' and were involved in various resistance organization.
And the Nazis also referred to any members of a resistance group as 'terrorists.'
Both Hamas and Hezbollah were formed as responses to Israel's occupation of Gaza/West Bank and Lebanon. Israel may 'destroy' them but it is sowing the 'Dragons' Teeth' of potentially even wider resistance.
And, sadly Israel is taking resources away from Ukraine which is fighting a justifiable defence against invasion.
> Nowadays Hamas and Hezbollah are seen as victims and celebrated as heroes in WESTERN universities
I don't think this is really the case. It seems like you are failing to make a distinction between Hamas and the civilians in Gaza. This is the same distinction which Israel refuses to make. One can oppose Hamas and still be sympathetic to the innocents killed in Gaza.
I was not addressing the distinction at all, nor implying that the innocents and Hamas members are the same. I was referring to parallels where victims are being blamed, this silly approach is cynical and contrarian in nature and reflective of how simplistic one’s knowledge has to be, in order to hold such a view.
To be clear, the radical supporters I was referring to, are confirmed Hezbollah “refills”, not random members of the Palestinian public…
My paragraph you quoted is referring to the MANY universities in America where students were blocking others from entering classes, behaving like hooligans and shouting pro-Hamas/Hezbollah chants against Israel and denouncing or totally disregarding the terroristic acts of these two organisations. Their protests were obnoxious. I am not against peaceful protests…
My criticism is directed to the supposedly educated students who make a choice to blame Israel for their acts of self defence, blaming the victims of October 7 for the collective as “having brought it upon themselves”.
I expect such rhetoric from an lmam, or from someone where access to information is restricted and brainwashing is possible, but from those from an university?? I find this to be too bizarre to make up.
I appreciate the topic is complex, hence I will not enter into a discussion on the causes, but when an obvious terrorist act becomes a propagandistic trope, I get worked up. :))
You damage to your credibility when you assert there was any reason OTHER than Hezbollah aggression (8000 rockets fired at civilians just since October 7, constant threats, etc) when Israel retaliates. Why do you disparage and mock Putin yet support his ally Iran and the Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah? Israel is (and has been) a stronger democracy that Ukraine.
>> Israel is (and has been) a stronger democracy that Ukraine.
- And Russia is "a stronger democracy" than Israel.
Russia reverted to dictatorship (after a very short attempt at actual democracy) and Putin is a despot. Russia's theatrical pretense of a democracy doesn't fool anyone, least of all the Russian civilians I asked when in Russia as well as in western countries.
Nope. It's totalitarian with well over half of the population voting for Putin.
Nobody knows how many actually vote for him. The count is so very obviously fake.
They used statistical methods for previous elections https://meduza.io/feature/2018/07/03/tak-skolko-golosov-ukrali-na-prezidentskih-vyborah-sotni-tysyach-ili-milliony
Anyway, he is the most popular candidate, he wins elections, and he has an overwhelming support in rural areas.
BTW, how many terms did Netanyahu serve as PM? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Israel
Compare that to the list of Ukrainian presidents, where only one was ever re-elected for the second term https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_Ukraine
The Israeli democracy, lacking transfer of power, is very close to the Russian case.
"Compare that to the list of Ukrainian presidents, where only one was ever re-elected for the second term"
Excellent proof of a democracy working well.
You're right that he rigs elections, but he still has considerable support. Especially now that he's invading Ukraine, its a distraction to help bring in supporters who were opposed to him but have an imperialist view towards Ukraine. Its an old dictator's trick to invade a neighbour when they're having issues at home.
What is your definition of "a stronger democracy".
I admire Ukraine for its work in progress on democracy. Israel's parliamentary version of democracy is strengthened by the diversity of the political parties who represent constituencies as varied as Islamic, Israeli Arabs, Zionists, Labor, Likud, and religious parties. While this often leads to odd coalitions, Israeli democracy represents all constituencies.
Yup. Fantastic work there:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/magazine/israel-west-bank-settler-violence-impunity.html?smid=tw-share
Well if diversity of political parties is your measure of democracy then Ukraine wins hands down.
There are 349 officially registered political parties in Ukraine
Please, kindly explain: where am I going to ruin my reputation?
I apologize, I thought my concern about credibility was concise.
Your Ukraine updates have details that are very consistent with widely reported facts and expand on that basis in a way that gives your reports credibility. For example, you have documented how Ukraine reached into Russia to destroy Russian arms that were being staged or prepared to attack Ukrainian civilian and military targets. You take pains to clarify Ukraine has not targeted civilians. While your mockery of Putin ("Puddding") and his military ("cuddling") seems unnecessary and makes your sympathies clear, this mockery does not seem to have interfered with reporting facts without biases, and in fact you have expressed you concerns with US and European leaders.
IDF has targeted only legitimate military targets in Lebanon. IDF has targeted legitimate military targets (weapons depots and operatives) in response to over 8000 Hezbollah rockets fired at civilians since October 7, without targeting civilians. This is directly parallel to Ukraine bombing military targets in Russia. IDF does not have HQ's and weapons depots in civilian areas. In contrast, similar to Hamas, Hezbollah establishes military bases and stores their munitions in the midst of civilians. Similar to Russia, Hamas and Hezbollah routinely target civilians who are far from military targets. The fact that your detailed reporting does not point that out diminishes your credibility.
IDF has targeted only enemy operatives (who helpfully self identified by carrying beepers and walkie talkies) , military HQ's / locations, and weapons depots. IDF timed the destruction of Hezbollah's HQ to Nasrallah's presence and Netanyahu's UN speech. We don't know if IDF knew Nasrallah had such a vast munitions depot at his HQ. I figure IDF was just lucky to have eliminated Iranian evil at the same time.
This military response has re-aligned Israelis behind Netanyahu, including opponents who insisted Netanyahu was pursing Hamas just to distract from legal problems. I think a lot of Israelis (among others) have been surprised to see how many munitions Hezbollah planned to send to kill innocent Israelis.
While many were surprised the IDF had not responded to Hezbollah's killing of a dozen innocent Druze kids playing soccer, time has shown IDF timed their response to a time and place of their choosing.
Overall, the fact that you ascribe motives to Netanyahu that (a) nobody can establish using facts and (b) his political opponents sometimes espouse (and sometimes not) damages your credibility.
Aha! So, the usual, 'Tom can perfectly anaylse any other wars, but when it comes to Israel, you're just wrong, biased, incompetent and anti-Semitic, because everybody supporting Israel is not biased, incompetent, and the least anti-Semitic', of course.
Everything's clear.
Except you're not analyzing the Israel related wars. Your Ukrainian updates detail military actions. You don't cover Israeli / Hamas / Hezbollah / Houthi military actions.
Interesting you hear this message so often that you call it "the usual."
And I find it interesting you're surprised I hear this message so often.
While the answer is simple: because the mass of people commenting about my 'work' - have never read anything else but 1-2 blog-posts about the 'Arab-Israeli conflict', and still consider themselves for qualified to explain me how to do my job.
Thus, here for your information, because you're certainly different in this regards...
https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php?sid=b8bc8ad38232d8be5a4aa1ed10878993
That is quite the biography & bibliography.
I had asked why you disparage and mock Putin yet support his ally Iran and proxies. What distinction(s) do you draw?
Your bibliography leads me to wonder how you see this ME conflict developing with (apparently) uncontested Israeli air power?
LOL.
Look Israel stans, you do yourself no favors trying to start the story on October 7th and play the victim card. You do get, don't you, that nobody actually cares about whether Israel survives? That those American Evangelicals who back Israel are only doing it because their belief system about the End of Days requires Israel to be around to get almost entirely wiped out?
If so-called "Western Civilization" and the idiots at the bottom of the pyramid scheme want to commit collective suicide, fine. But can you at least be less banality of evil as you go about it? It's fucking embarrassing.
Putin and Netanyahu have been allies for years.
(1) Ain't no Israel stan, I just pay attention to history.
(2) Nobody thinks the story started October 7. No matter when you want to start the timeline (1993 Oslo, 1948 Israel founded & Arabs attacked, 1933 Peel, 1918 Ottoman demise, 1917 Balfour, ~1870 land purchases, AD/BC Christ, or 3000BC) Israel wins each time.
(3) I give you credit for admitting you don't care if Israel survives. You face a problem because Israel has demonstrated they care if Israel survives, and understand their people will be raped and killed if they lose. Israelis have proven willing to coexist multiple times and (mostly) have learned to crush those who try to wipe them out.
(4) I knew Islam was a death cult and don't know any American Evangelicals are, but won't waste my time learning about it.
(5) While I'm not banal about evil, it is pleasing to watch the evildoers (Iran, Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah) lose time after time. It's sad for the innocent people in those regions but nothing I can do about it.
The overwhelming majority of killing and raping is done by Israelis and the IDF. Remember when Israelis stormed that military base demanding the right to rape Palestinians? A truly revolting society. Far more sick, violent, and twisted than even the worst Islamic countries of the region.
However, one good thing came out of October 7: the scales are being lifted from people's eyes and they're seeing Israel as it really is. People are being un-propagandized and this cannot be undone. In fact it's accelerating, largely due to Israelis themselves. Because they live in a racist apartheid state controlled by fanatics most Israelis can't even fathom the idea of reigning themselves in or putting a nice veneer on their detestable beliefs and behavior. Their minds are so warped by hate and racism, their society so deeply sick and demented, so used to being a bully and never being told no, so used to viewing everything that isn't Israeli as below them, that even thinking about how it may appear to others is alien to their supremacist minds. And so they carry on being Israeli while the rest of the world watches in horror and disgust.
Yes, over the years many more Arabs have been killed than Israelis, but it's not like the Arabs haven't tried really hard to kill all the Jews.
I don't know of IDF demanding to rape Palestinians, especially at a military base. What you describe does sound pretty sick, especially if you say its worse than what Islamic countries have done. Where was that reported?
I haven't seen anything like you describe (scales lifted from peoples' eyes and such) but it does sound gruesome.
That's the problem with so many people like you: you all 'haven't seen' - anything that doesn't fit your preferences.
Please let me know where IDF demanding to rape Palestinians (at a military base) was reported.
> It's sad for the innocent people in those regions but nothing I can do about it.
Israel could do something about it. They could stop meting out collective punishment on the people of Gaza.
Giving up is not a choice for the Israelis. Israel needs the hostages (innocent people) back and the decades of Arab attacks to stop.
In contrast, the Ukrainians could give up. Ukrainians would simply return to the life of Russian slavery, just like Soviet times. Arabs have been clear: if any one of their attacks over the decades had succeeded, they would immediately kill all the Jews. The Israelis have been fortunate their adversaries are ham handed.
The bumper sticker says COEXIST. Sign and observe the Oslo accords.
Giving up is not an option for Israel… that seems to include giving up war… since you cannot even make a cease fire with Hamas in order to get the hostages back and a deal with Hizbollah at the same time. If you dont give up war but continue you are bound to loose it. It doesnt matter whether you have one all others bouts. At the moment Israel is not even giving its opponents a chance to make a peace. Only abject surrender. Where you would have to trust Israel. Not going to happen. Israel has to give up something. Like war. Like coveting their neighbours land and stealing it. Like treating their neighbours as animals. (And yes, this all becomes mutual.) But you cannot win forever. Without US support you would be lost. And sorry, you cannot take that for granted for ever.
Ummm - you have heard of Oslo accords, right? Or perhaps Camp David? Or Peel or the many other deals where Israel agreed to coexist but the Arabs / Palestinians said NO each time?
By all metrics the Israelis have caused amazingly few civilian deaths despite Hamas and Hezbollah specifically putting their military and command assets in the middle of (or more commonly under) civilian shields.
(6) Also really, really bizarre to see a suggestion that Putin and Netanyahu are, or ever have been, allies. OTOH, Germany, France, and UK have been allies for decades, so maybe Putin and Netanyahu could also become allies. They both seem too old for that to ever happen.
Like, read anything about how russia lets Israel bomb Syria. You think that happens without coordination? An agreement? Come on.
And it’s only one step from that to recognizing the simple common interest in a deal that keeps Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, et al bound to russia but also unable to strike Israel as hard as they might because losing russian aid would suck.
This is literally international diplomacy 101, people. It’s how the effing system has always worked. Fans choose to be blind.
The ease and the accuracy of acquiring so wide scope of strike targets tells me that it is also about tidying up loose ends from the Civil War Era. Thus, there are inside undercurrents in Lebanon. Plenty of them. Many of them desperate enough to make deals with Israel.
I have a hunch that regardless of any (angry) new blood it will still end with severely reduced influence and military strength.
How many is that 'many' in Lebanon?
When I try and think of a strategic plan for Israel that extends beyond keeping Netanyahu out prison, the only thing I can think of is a replay of the Armenian genocide on the Palestinians. This does not mean that Israel will kill millions of Palestinians, only the Israel will continue to kill thousands and destroy the homes of millions until most 80-90% of Palestinians leave the land between the river and the sea. I don’t think this is a good thing, but in a world where Russia keeps 20% of Ukraine and China invades Taiwan, displacing 7 million Palestinians fits right in. And while Turkey still gets mad when ever anyone mentions Armenians from Anatolia, no one mentions them very often. I prefer the world of Pax Americana that I grew up in, but I think a return to the 19th century great game of empires and regional powers is pretty strong possibility.
The crimes committed against the Palestinians are "Pax Americana." There would have been a two state solution decades ago if that's what the US really wanted. Settlerism continues because America permits it. The malicious total destruction of Gaza as a habitable place for humans continues because America permits it. The mass slaughter of civilians continues because America permits it. Not only do they permit it, they fund it, they supply the weapons, and when you see the fruits of these actions are piles of dead children, their mangled bodies shrouded in grey dust save for the blood, the media and state dept are there to whitewash it and remind you that Israel is our democratic ally and, well, there was a known Hamas commander in that refugee camp so what choice did they have they were using human shields do you support Hamas is ISIS baby in an oven antisemitism terrorism antisemitism terrorism terrorism terrorism.
Tom, thanks... scarry stuff for sure
..
This is an excellent natural experiment proving that International Relations has always been a complete and utter sham. So much for my undergrad degree.
Lesson: hard power is everything, soft power is BS. Those who can do what they will, others suffer what they must. None of us matter in a world of warring oligarchs.
Fascinating to see Iran and Hezbollah's lack of effective response. So they've been bluffing all along, too. Unless Israel just empowered the faction that will advocate a mass bombardment of civilian sites as revenge.
Exactly what Netanyahu, Biden, and Putin all want.
"Lesson: hard Power is everything, soft Power is BS."
That sums about Up what the IR-School of "Realism" says. See Kenneth Waltz for exapmle.
Waltz is one of the biggest idiots, along with the other neo-Realists. Problem with the field of IR is the entire thing was set up to explain/justify US power. It has no basis in science, but con artists get PhDs in it anyway.
Soft power = journalists and academics in the US Northeast say nice things about you. That's it.
Power is power is power. It's a physical quantity, demonstrated in the field. All else is bluff, as Ukraine keeps on proving.
I prefer the definition that power is a myth.
No, really. Power is the effort of other humans you can call upon, either because they are willing to provide it, or believe that compliance will be forced on them by the first group if they refuse. In this regard, even soft power can be a thing, though it's arguably a lot more incidental and a lot less reliable than hard power, lacking the second leg.
But you're right that hard power should be quantifiable to a degree. Putin's power turned out to be a bluff precisely because his minions had all acted like yes-men but failed to work toward his vision of imperial glory by organizing an effective fighting force.
Soft power BS? I dont think so if Israel moves ground forces into Libanon Hizbollah will benefit from its support from the population. I think it helps them quite a lot. But we shal see I guess. No doubt thus is not the end of the war.
Andrew, while hard power probably trumps soft power in many situations I say you are the BS when you claim that soft power is BS. This can only be said by an American. Having been on the recieving end of that soft power in a small country I can guarantee you that everything from language, games, movies and songs, literature, research, education etc etc shapes your thinking. If you visit Norway you could turn on the radio, Go to a movie, talk to almost any one in English. And we have been allied to you since 1948. Of course this matters. We listen to the US far beyond what we should. And we are not the only such country. Think about the fact so many speaks English. We are influenced and shaped by soft power. (Having said all this I dont know what they thougth you in IR, so that may be BS. But soft power exists and US benefits from it.
I would add that occasional Ukrainian citizens correcting rocket strikes on their own city for ideological reasons is an example of soft power as well.
You choose to buy American crap, like lots of Americans.
But here’s the secret - it isn’t even really American. Just because some international companies pump out trash with America as the primary first audience doesn’t tie it in any way to anything remotely real in American life.
Soft power seems to matter, then it doesn’t. The calculations reset when hard power comes to play. Why are Japan and Germany and so many countries still beholden to the USA? Material connections forged during the occupation. Hard power. Soft power is just its residue.
As much as I dislike Netanyahu and his extremist partners, I dislike Nasrallah and Hezbollah even more. The only reason for Hezbollah's existence was bringing terror to Israel, and, for that matter, to Lebanon as well, and Syria, and lots or other places. Netanyahu may have pursued his own political goals ordering this air strike, and those goals are not necessarily aligned with the interests of most Israelis, but nonetheless, when people like Nasrallah finally go to Heaven, I would say it's generally a good thing for the rest of humankind.
Shhhh.... Didn't you read we can't be happy about it because ultraorthodox settlers in west bank are bad?
Yes, ultraorthodox settlers in the west bank are pretty bad indeed, and the fact that they’ve basically highjacked the Israeli government is even worse. Ben-Gvir should be in jail, not in the ministerial chair. But that doesn’t make Nasralla any better. Ideally, he should have been in jail as well – if both ended up there some 20…30 years ago, a lot of dead people could have been alive today, and everybody might’ve been a lot happier. So, for now I’m calling the bomb blast a second-best option for Nasralla, and still hoping to see Ben-Gvir in jail one day.
...with which we're back to why Hezbollah came into being. You've never heard of Israelis massacring thousands of Lebanese Shi'a while 'bombing Palestinian terrorists', back in the 1970s?
Also, what can you say about the creation and composition of the state of Lebanon?
Oh, yes, I heard a lot about Israeli crimes against peaceful Lebanese civilians from the most reliable information source – Soviet TV and newspapers. I also happened to personally know one Lebanese guy – there in the USSR as well, in the 80th: he was a Sunni, and seemed to hate Jews, Alawites, Palestinians of any kind, Shias of both Amal and Hezbollah varieties, Christians, Israel, Syria and Iran, USA and France – all of them in just about equal measure, as far as I remember.
And, sure: Hezbollah came into being in response to Israeli crimes, and Israel is what it is in response to Hezbollah crimes…violence breeds more violence, extremism breeds more extremism. One way to see the whole Arab-Israeli conflict is a perpetual victory or extremists over moderates.
However, I’d say that Hezbollah stands out even in that circle of extremism, by complete lack of any positive agenda. Even Hamas has one, however ugly and unrealistic: “let’s slaughter all the Jews, and then we’ll build a beautiful peaceful Palestine”. But Hezbollah is all about fighting. Aside from Israel, it’s already fighting half the Lebanon, and Syria, and presumably does a lot of dirty work in Europe and elsewhere on behalf of its masters in Tehran. And if Israel suddenly fell into hell, Hezbollah would be in a mortal fight with somebody else the next day. At least, I’m not aware about any peaceful plans on its agenda.
And therefore, sorry, but let me rejoice at Mr. Nasrallah departure, however bad are those who sent him on his last voyage.
"But Hezbollah is all about fighting."
Not true. At least not much more than any other government which maintains an armed force. Hezbollah is deeply embedded in the social and political fabric of Lebanon. Besides the militant wing they are also a political party and operate all kinds of social services, schools, hospitals, garbage collection and public amenities. You can read about all this in radical Islamist sites like CNN and the New York Times.
"People here see Hezbollah as a political movement and a social service provider as much as it is a militia."
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/24/schuster.hezbollah/index.html
I suspect that the share of military expenditures in Hezbollah budget is a lot higher than for any government...maybe only Ukraine comes close. And Hezbollah "services" turn out ruinously expensive for the rest of Lebanon.
I see.
Well, here you have it from a mix of UN- and Israeli reports:
https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/lebanese-civil-war-volume-1-palestinian-diaspora-syrian-and-israeli-interventions-1970-78.php
https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/lebanese-civil-war-volume-2-quiet-before-the-storm-1978-1981.php
https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/lebanese-civil-war-volume-3-moving-to-war-4-7-june-1982.php
Volume 4 is to follow the next year....
Inform yourself: I promise, it's not going to hurt.
Thank you, I'll take a look.
Am I expected to take a less negative view of Hezbollah after reading those books?
When and where have I said I have a positive view of Hezbollah?
Nowhere.
You just advised your books in response to my very negative (and, quite possibly, underinformed) view, so, naturally, I wonder if yours might be less negative. No prejudice meant.
BTW. Syrians in Idlib celebrating death of Nasrallah https://x.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1839774322627424271 Many Lebanese would celebrate too, if they would not be afraid.
In the Levant, every group hates every other group. Israel just added one more item to the pile upon formation.
True dat! I wonder if an Israeli invasion of Lebanon will make Erdoghan get off his duff and push further into Syria? Probably not what the IRGC wants either.
I would expect him not to. Occupying land is costly, and the Turkish economy is not exactly in good health. Besides, they already control a big chunk of the remaining anti-Assadist Sunni resistance, and Kurds would only give them trouble. Erdogan fashions himself as this shrewd regional mediator between everyone around, so he will probably just keep doing this, milking the position for all it's worth and then some.
Given that analysis of the Levant, it looks that Israel has taken up the local culture.
Enmity there is ancient and its pull extreme. Even the crusader kingdoms, nine hundred years ago, took sides and turned on each other. In the Levant, do as the Levantines do.
Of course they do. After all, Hezbollah was sent by the IRGC to Syria to fight 'for Bashar' against the Syrian insurgency.
....and half of 'the West' celebrated the Hezbollah as 'saviors of Syrian Christians', while calling the insurgents 'al-Qaeda' and 'IS'...
"Half of the West" is very exaggerated. Asad with some Syrian Christians tried to made such PR, but in conservative groups they failed mostly because of their anti-Israel stances. And there are not so many left-wing or liberal groups who care about Christian religion and are more "realistic" about Israel opinions. Moreover some Syrian Christians emigrants spoke against this PR in Western media - maybe because many Syrian Christians were tortured and killed by Asad, too. They are not united in this regard.
Half of the West is indeed very exaggerated. It is more like 98.99% percent.
Try to walk into any political movement/party in the West and tell them how Syrian rebels from the armed resistance should have been supported against Assad and his "secular" supporters. Then comeback and describe the reaction you received.
Friendly tip : dont do it if your skin is slightly brown or you will get into big troubles.
Try to the the opposite, tell them to support Asad against anyone. You get the same answer always - nope, we don't care. For 98% of western politicians Syria is just bardak they do not want to mess with.
No dont skip the question just like that.
Telling you are pro Assad ence pro butchering a near 1 million and forcing out of their home over 10 millions Arabs might get you answer from indifference to active support.
But telling you are pro Syrian opposition. I mean real opposition so armed opposition will be met universally with suspicion up to insults as "Islamo-Facsit" and a likely meeting to the nearby police station if you are not perfectly white.
Also it is not lost on anyone how you reduce fight for freedom and safety to a "BaRdAk" when it concerns brown skin Arab subhumans while you check in and comment on a daily basis here when it concerns the more worthwhile white skin Ukrainians.
Regarding Lebanese, that is delusional. Lebanese fully understand the only reason Nasrallah was killed was due to Israeli expansionism including the Israelis desire to invade and occupy Lebanon.
And while you probably dont care and probably cant notice the difference between different brown skin people, Lebanese are most likely noticing Israel started to assassinate non-Hezbollah Lebanese too
For all the talk about sectarianism in MENA, Westerners are the worse with the way they too often believe sects can be the all and everything. In truth only Westerners are so blinded by sect and racism that they massively support Israelis crimes under the pretext of "Western Judeo-Christian civilization" while Israel kills Levantine Christians just like it kills Muslims.
Iran taking active control of Hezbollah was my thought as well. This reminds of Israel's "flying artillery" during the War of Attrition and how all that achieved was a Soviet intervention and massive expansion of Egypt's military.
'Iran taking active control of Hezbollah...'
I think plenty of people in Lebanon will be happy to give coordinates to Israel when that happens. And then suddenly, some 'coup attempt' will be discovered, and thus Hezbollah units (and: people) will be disarmed and disbanded (and disappear) en masse.
Disbanded by who? No doubt there are many in Lebabon who would like to see it happen, but all the other factions are so weak that it's hard to see that happening. Also if Iran intervenes, I imagine it would not be so overt, similar to Syria.
Depends on the nature of Irans intervention. Lot of people wouldnt see the difference anyhow.
What is 'many' in Lebanon?
The Christians, who were a minority already when the state of Lebanon was created by the French - and that in complete disregard for what the local population wanted?
Based on my reading there was a reasonably amicable sharing of power prior to Israel expelling Palestinians during and after the '48 Israeli War of 'Independence.'
The fact that most of the refugees were Muslim and would potentially give the Muslim politicians an unbreakable lock on power if enfranchised was a major spark for the civil war.
Christians there will happily leave this mess to the traditional Islamic infighting. At most, they'll just assist a bit.
The question is, how deep is the direct control of IRGC there? And then count all the rest...
The Iranian regime is fundamentally terrorist. In their design, they openly declare that they want to terrorize the whole world.
Paragraph 5 of Article 2 of the constitution states that the role of imams is “to ensure the continuation of the Islamic revolution,” and in the preamble of the constitution, in the section “Ideology of the army,” it directly states that: ” In the formation and equipping of the country's defense forces, due attention should be paid to faith and ideology as the main criteria. Thus, the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps should be organized in accordance with this purpose, and they will be responsible not only for the protection and preservation of the country's borders, but also for fulfilling the ideological mission of jihad in the name of Allah, that is, the expansion of sovereignty the law of God throughout the world.”
This book contains the fatwas of Ayatollah Khomeini, the first leader of Islamic Iran, on the basis of whose teachings the state now exists. So he gives the following definition of jihad. I quote page 2: ”Jihad means the conquest of all non-Muslim territories. Such a war may well be declared after the formation of an Islamic government worthy of the name, at the direction of the Imam or on his orders. It will then be the duty of every able-bodied adult male to become a volunteer for this war of conquest, the ultimate goal of which is to extend the authority of the Quranic law from one end of the Earth to the other.”
https://ww25.islammonitor.org/uploads/docs/greenbook.pdf?subid1=20240930-0357-04ef-85f9-2db61cf6889f
To complete the picture, I want to quote another fatwa from Khomeini, which speaks volumes. I quote the first paragraph of page 27 of the Little Green Book: “There are eleven unclean things: urine, feces, semen, bones of the dead, blood, a dog, a pig, a man and a woman who are not Muslims, wine, beer, the sweat of a camel that eats garbage.” I think that comments are unnecessary.
As for the person of Qasem Suleimani, his entire biography suggests that he was a talented genocidal, murderer, rapist and organizer of terrorist attacks. According to international law, its liquidation was a legal measure. Why? Soleimani was gathering all the Shia mercenaries around the world to carry out the genocide of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq. These Shiite mercenaries killed and robbed the civilian population. Iran through its Shiite majority in the Iraqi parliament and the Shiite Kataib Hezbollah police force, has control over Iraq and is using that country's resources to wage other wars. The same applies to what is left of the territory of Syria and Lebanon. Therefore, I do not agree with Tom's conclusions that Israel is to blame for the provocations. Iran does not need to be provoked because its regime openly says that their main goal is the destruction of Israel and the United States. This is declared in the Iranian constitution.
While Zionist settlers are pluralist humanist and better because....?
The Isreali and Western Press don't cover their crimes - aside, regularly, by Haaretz and on occasion Times of Israel for egregious examples.
And, of course, any Jews who note the crimes are 'self-hating jews...'
It takes a special sort of genius to make Iran look like the good guys. Like Hamas, all Hezbollah need to do is survive and watch the world turn against Israel.
In case Tom missed it :)
Austria veered to the right in a watershed election on Sunday as the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) stormed to victory, marking the first time since World War II that a party rooted in Nazi ideology prevailed in a national ballot.
The anti-migrant, Russia-friendly FPÖ won more than 29 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results, putting it about three points ahead of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which currently leads the government. The ÖVP suffered a record loss to finish with 26 percent.
Presumably they will now support Ukraine because Putin claims they are also nazis.......
Make sense, the election results do. After all, it was SO good for Austria in the original Nazi era, they first had that chancellor murdered, then a few years later the country annexed to the Reich, which did away even with the very name of Austria. Who in their right mind wouldn't want that?
Interesting write up. Thank you. The Israelis are quite committed to this fight, whatever the IRGC does in its reforms is going to be met by a powerful response. It indeed seems like just the beginning to a more bloody conflict on both sides. With all thats going on at the moment, I think its worth even questioning whether the Iranian president's death was not foul play. Iran and Hezbollah for now seems to have been caught completely off guard by Israel's response.
Powerful response = means?
I mean, in the Gaza Strip, after one year, the Israelis can't claim they've destroyed more than 35% of Hamas and/or more than 35% of its tunnel system. They have massacred nearly 50,000 civilians and over 15,000 of children, though.
... so 'powerful', that response, that it's a 'genocide, live on TV'...
I agree its a genocide, maybe I should have said extremely violent response.
Keep the war going, to stay in power. Escalate, escalate, escalate.
An accurate assessment as always sadly. And i do mean sadly. How many more Israeli's, Palestinians and who knows who else will die before things 'settle down'? Seeing as 'settling down' is probably the best we can hope for now.
The wrong kind of power and the wrong kind of people. A deadly combination 🤷🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️
Thanks for this Tom