Thanks for the update. I was quite surprised that with Iran, Hezbollah is playing by certain rules by trying to only target military and logistical targets. I was wondering when it would start targeting "civilian targets", even if the explanation for matching Israeli actions remains within the framework of a "measured escalation". My question is probably naive, but it is a paradigm shift from what has happened in the past with the targeting of Israeli and American embassies and interests around the world. There has also been no international fatwa against Jews. Do you know if this is a change of policy in order to gain a certain respect and credibility with the UN and those who condemn Israel's excessive actions or, for Iran in particular, the fear of Israel using nuclear warheads, because seeing them act today I tell myself that they would be quite capable of doing so by hiding behind a divine will?
It might sound unkind to answer your question with a question (or several questions). But, I'm trying to make people thinking the way you do - think. Indeed, to 'put yourself into their shoes' (or sandals) - and that because I think there's no way to answer certain questions past 'understanding them'.
Thus, hope, you're not going to mind, nor consider this offensive.
***
Contrary to the majority of 'Westerners' (and especially: 'Christian Westerners'), the majority of Muslims - but especially the clergy in places like Qom (religious centre of the Shi'a Islam) - knows to differentiate between different sects of Christianity, and between different sects of Judaism, too.
So, when you think about such issues, please, kindly ask yourself: why should 'Iran' (i.e. the Shi'a clergy following the Twelver Shi'a ideology) 'issue a fatwa against Jews'?
They know (and far better than the mass of Christians supporting Israel knows), that not all the Jews are Zionists, nor is Israel - and even less so Zionism - representative for all the Jews. Far from that.
Besides, they know the mass of Israel-supporters abroad, outside Israel, are no Jews at all. Actually, they're Christians (whether Evangelicals, Catholics, Orthodox etc.).
Therefore, they have no problems with 'Jews'.
They do have a major problem with 'ZIonism', though.
So, again: why should they issue a 'fatwa against Jews'? They already have fatwas against Zionism.
BTW, if you expect them to issue a fatwa against 'Jews', then why don't you expect them to issue a fatwa against all the 'Christian Zionists', too?
Anyway: religious issues are influencing Hezbollah's official language, that's sure. See: Occupied Territories = Palestine etc. But, it's not influencing Hezbollah's targeting. Think, it's about the time to accept something that's likely to sound 'striking', even 'absurd': in this regards, they're more professional than the IDF (including its 'AI-steered' targeting, which, obviously, depends on programming by humans).
Of course, with Israel starting to randomly target Lebanese civilians fleeing its bombardment, so also in Christian villages of Lebanon (and Syria too, meanwhile), then 'gloves are off'. After all, Hezbollah loves presenting itself as a 'protector of (local) Christianity', too.
....and NOBODY in the West (nor in Israel) had anything against Hezbollah (on order from the IRGC) launching its military intervention in Syria of November 2011, to (between others) 'protect Christians' (and spreading corresponding PR-videos in the social media).
I.e. it's such kind of covert antisemitism (also popular in the West too.) And yes, Israeli goverment is anti-Palestian. So, when Israeli gov. is bad, that does not mean the other side is good. Life is not fairytale.
When Netanyahu is explaining - and not just once, but to whoever is ready to listen - that 'Hitler didn't want to kill Jews', but 'Muslims told him to do so', then that's no denial of the Holocaust?
With other words: leave it at that. To understand why was the Ahmadinejad admin doing such BS, back in the mid-2000s, you would at least need to know how did his clique end, and why. And to know that, you would need to know at least something about the internal makings of the IRI regime.
Gauging by you coming with this kind of 'reader's reaction', now (18 years later), and here, I doubt you've read even what I've posted about that topic on this very blog.
Technically speaking Netanyahu is shifting the blame onto his current enemies, which we called in debating the Nazi Club. You basically kill the debate (because you have no other argument left) by starting to baffle, if this elongation is plausible or not (normally it is not, why you don't use it).
However, this is different to denying something that happened. And yes, you are right, that zionism and Judaism are different and sometimes opposing things. Nevertheless plenty of Jews left Iran because of the change of politics within Iran although the denial was only done by this particular person you mentioned above, that sounded sometimes more as Castro talking about the US than an Iranian politician.
There is also clever politics. Right now Europe is increasingly pro-Palestinian and ambivalent on Iran.
Start targeting civilians and that dynamic changes.
I have no doubt that given a chance Iranians, Hezbollah but also militaries ofUS, Great Britain, Ukraine and pretty much anyone on the planet would slaughter civilians with glee.
(For those who disagree remember carpet bombing in WW2, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc etc. West prefers it's mass murder to be done remotely with a bomber or missile or starvation than an AK-47 or grenade or machete).
That could also all be boiled down to: a fatwa against "Jews" would be a massive PR own-goal for Iran. There is simply no reason to do it. From the first to the second Intifada and between 1979 and the JCPOA deal the Palestinians and the Iranians learned a tremendous amount about what works and what doesn't in information warfare environment where they're at a huge disadvantage to the Israel Lobby. The basic thing that works is to come across like Gandhi, or at least, ironically, the "David" of the situation. Which, handily enough, they are insofar as the Americans pump the Zionists with billions of dollars of free weapons.
I have to wonder why UNIFIL even exists. If Lebanon were a functioning state and Israel was not a state run by Bibi and his hardline allies it might make sense. But in the now it seems an utterly pointless exercise. Hezbulia is not going to disarm and Israel is not going to stop behaving how it pleases in the space called Lebanon on the map. Why the charade.
Well charade it may be - but when the IDF starts targeting UNFIL personnel directly - it really shows up the sheer blind arrogance of the Israeli's . They act like they can get away with this behaviour for the next 100 years with no kickback .
In Norway the mood of the population switched (very broadly speaking) from Pro-Israeli to neutral and now clearly anti Israeli when the UN peacekeeping forces with Norwegian soldiers returned home beginning in the 80s. The soldiers went to their posts as pro Israeli and returned as anti. This influence the general population. So, yes, you are right. But Israel doesnt care.
It's probably not a coincidence that the UN peacekeeping troops came from already rather anti-Israeli countries (incidentally, Catholic ones.) You are not going to see the Brits, for example, cheerfully volunteering to supply military speedbumps for IDF operations, for the entirely political reason that certain people high up in both political parties realize that this would generate the least advantageous headlines for Israel.
Mostly maybe. But not in the case of Norway. There the mood switched. Sabrah and Chatilla, coupled with ex Un peace keeping soldiers. Of course the killing og a totally innovert guy at a restaurant in a small town in Norway by Mostad and the capture of these agents didnt help.
The US deploying THAAD is a roundabout way of de-escalating the conflict. If the Israelis get properly hit by Iran or whoever it gets very hard for US diplomacy to work and stop the whole thing going up yet another level. The US is busy try to create an off-ramp for all parties concerned. How that is done is anyone's guess!
Sry, but that is BS. Half of the defence against the Iranian attack was managed by non Israeli actors, mostly the US.
If they would have gotten hit probably on the snout, they wouldn't be so cheeky hitting back. Same old story: if you can do things without getting repercussion, you continue doing that. If you get hit properly, you stop at that point. Best example for that is Prussian/German militarism.
It *would* be a roundabout way of de-escalating the conflict if there were anyone whatsoever high up in the state department who could credibly link Israel's ABM defense to genuine de-escalation.
But Blinken is, quite obviously, playing the Good Cop to Netanyahu's Bad Cop.
Pager attacks have hit next to no combatants, but plenty of civilians related to Hezbollah.
And, exactly as assessed so often before, and then three weeks ago again, 'de-capitating strikes' are an ultimate exercise in failure. They might appear 'spectacular', but Israel is failing with them for 100+ years, meanwhile. Indeed, in the case of Israel, the only de-capitating strike that was useful, was the one that failed (attempt to kill Amer, on 29 October 1956).
As next, yes, theoretically, to win this war, Netanyahu would need a strategy. But, he's got none but to keep himself in power. Therefore, all the IDF has got is the illusion they might be able to kill all of their enemies.
....was tried so often, in hundreds of similar situations over the last 120 years: has never worked. The only thing that worked is something unthinkable for Israel: offering working alternatives.
When this is over, there will be two alternatives: either the Israelis are going to explain how smart they are by pointing out their mistakes (like in 2006), and then everybody is going to start preparing for the next round; or, Israel is going to start falling part, because enough people might realise that this war is the ultimative failure of Zionism.
George Friedman was taught as a student by Bibis father. He said, that the only way forward he saw through strength alone. If you get raised by such a father and don't challenge his narrative(Bibi obviously doesn't), you see showing and applying strength as the only strategy to succeed.
In fact you are turning everybody into enemies, because nobody wants endless wars. It has quite a touch of the development of diplomacy in the Times of Napoleon, who also only new that.
Would have been nice if Hezbollah warnings to evacuate were voiced before they made the North of Israel uninhabitable and displaced 50-100 thousand folks from their homes by way of indiscriminately firing short range rockets and ATGMS for a year. One of my cousins friends had his Corolla blown up by a Kornet during a family picnic. They are living in a motel in central Israel now. For a year.
I am sure they would have been very grateful to hear from Hezbollah that they need to evacuate before strikes begin. But that warning for that area is late by a year.
Those less diplomatic are going to ask you things like if you know atop of whose house was your house and the place where you've had that picnic constructed? Or,
- if the Zionists have warned the population of villages like Dayr Yassin, Tantra and few others, before exterminating their entire populations (yes, including children), back in 1947-1948?
Those not diplomatic the least are going to list you all of their relatives massacred by Israeli air strikes and artillery shelling of Lebanon since 1974.
But Mr. Tom, do you condemn Hamas? Meanwhile the IDF is like “We’re going to go exterminate Palestinians(just means non zionists tho really) and a clown.” And the media would go off in a frenzy about the fucking clown, and they can continue the “See? No one cares about Palestine(brown folks.)”
Netanyahu behaves like the US will always send everything Israel needs. But perhaps for the first time in history, the US should choose between Israel and Taiwan. In economic and strategic aspects, Taiwan values a million times more than Israel. If China invades Taiwan it will be interesting to see how the US chooses its friends. Netanyahu can occur in a limited position one by one with different Arabs.
I have no illusions about the American military aid. In the list of American friends Ukraine is in the end.
What you say is true when looking objectively at Israel and Taiwan, but the US has tunnel vision, and won't have a president with the guts to say no to the Zionists. Taiwan still has no defense treaty with the States, just vague assurances of support. China should be smart and apply pressure slowly while knowing the Americans won't stop them.
Thanks for the update. I Wonder how long it will take media to notice that there is no ground invasion going on? Not a succesful at least. Israel isnt breaking Hezbollah as a figthing force by bombing Beirut, Even if they killed Hezbollah leaders.
An embargo.....A COMPLETE EMBARGO of ALL weapons and ammunition to Israel IS the ONLY way that Israel's genocidal war of being a stupid fucking idiot will come to a SCREECHING halt. When the ammo runs out what the fuck are they going to do....USE SLINGS??????????
Sorry about my NON-Francais....volcanic anger can do that to me.
...and once again, my thanks to Iran and Hezbollah for being civil and restrained.
1st post, so before anything else: thanks for the work your putting into that.
I've been wondering about the Iranian's goal. Could the October attack have been a way to goad Israeli govt into an absrdly violent answer, this losing support from at least a part of "the west"? Not having that would probably mitigate the enthusiasm Bibi has for bombing his neighbours.
Anyone who can't see the topology of power between Israel and the US at this point is a lost cause, and so, it's a case of so much, so obvious. And what I find particularly illuminating is your realist analysis of Iran and the IRGC. The election of Pezeshkian, supposedly a dove, suggested that Iran has a slightly better functioning democracy than Israel.
Even if Pezeshkian is an IRGC puppet, seems like someone somewhere in the Iranian elite has some regard for paying lip service to Iranian public opinion and its fundamental desire not to get nuked by "Jericho" ICBMs. Much more so than in the highly constrained party systems of the US or UK, or the utterly craven Germany, etc.; where you've basically got a choice between two different flavours of Neocons with more or less explicitly chauvinist presentation styles.
I wrote previously that I had been a firm supporter of Israel for decades having grown up with 'Exodus' and 'Cast a Giant Shadow' and then the '67 War (pre-emptive of course) and then the '73 Ocober War with Israel on the defense.
I did, however, as time went on start questioning Israel's conduct in the 'Occupied' territories and then Lebanon....
It didn't help sympathy for Israel when a Time Magazine article on the '82 invasion had a sidebar on the Nepalese contingent of the UN Peacekeepers on te border with Israel. The reporter wrote of the fact that many of the Nepalese had served in the British Army's Gurkha regiment and carried traditions such as having the silver regimental bell rung to announce tea time (I have always been a sucker for ritual and tradition). He went on to note that as the peacekeepers were only allowed small arms that all the Nepalese would do as Israeli armored engineering vehicles breached the barricades across the roads was take them under light machine gun and rifle fire. - all of the other contingents just 'stood down.' As I read the piece I was thinking that 'if only they had had heavy weapons...'
That was then and the IDF troops just bypassed the unit and continued on - today they would have done a preliminary bombardment...
Then there was 'Sabra and Shatila' and Israel's image took another hit.
Rabin's assassination and Netanyahu's rise further soured my views.
At any rate, from having read an article containing what was claimed to be a a Mossad report after the '48 War that noted that the bulk of the Palestinians fled due to the reports of massacres and other atrocities committed by the various Israeli terrorists in conjunction with the expulsions which were actually publicized by the Zionists. This contrary to the hasabara that they left at the behest of the Arab League to 'clear the field' for the 'annihilation of the Jews...'
One sees a very similar pattern to that strategy in the IDF's current campaign in Lebanon - commit attacks on civilian targets (while claiming them to have a military justification) while warning the population to leave 'active combat zones.'
Likud has set up a conference on 'Resettling Gaza' and there are elements in the current Israeli government that have eyes on Southern Lebanon as well.
Meanwhile the West Bank is (according to articles in Haaretz) 'look like Gaza.'
Interesting how Israel's 'right of self defense' always has it invading neighboring territories...
There was also a piece recently in Haaretz noting that Israel stocks of anti-missile missiles are running low - Ukraine will be getting the 'short end' again.
Thank you, Tom
Thanks for the update. I was quite surprised that with Iran, Hezbollah is playing by certain rules by trying to only target military and logistical targets. I was wondering when it would start targeting "civilian targets", even if the explanation for matching Israeli actions remains within the framework of a "measured escalation". My question is probably naive, but it is a paradigm shift from what has happened in the past with the targeting of Israeli and American embassies and interests around the world. There has also been no international fatwa against Jews. Do you know if this is a change of policy in order to gain a certain respect and credibility with the UN and those who condemn Israel's excessive actions or, for Iran in particular, the fear of Israel using nuclear warheads, because seeing them act today I tell myself that they would be quite capable of doing so by hiding behind a divine will?
It might sound unkind to answer your question with a question (or several questions). But, I'm trying to make people thinking the way you do - think. Indeed, to 'put yourself into their shoes' (or sandals) - and that because I think there's no way to answer certain questions past 'understanding them'.
Thus, hope, you're not going to mind, nor consider this offensive.
***
Contrary to the majority of 'Westerners' (and especially: 'Christian Westerners'), the majority of Muslims - but especially the clergy in places like Qom (religious centre of the Shi'a Islam) - knows to differentiate between different sects of Christianity, and between different sects of Judaism, too.
So, when you think about such issues, please, kindly ask yourself: why should 'Iran' (i.e. the Shi'a clergy following the Twelver Shi'a ideology) 'issue a fatwa against Jews'?
They know (and far better than the mass of Christians supporting Israel knows), that not all the Jews are Zionists, nor is Israel - and even less so Zionism - representative for all the Jews. Far from that.
Besides, they know the mass of Israel-supporters abroad, outside Israel, are no Jews at all. Actually, they're Christians (whether Evangelicals, Catholics, Orthodox etc.).
Therefore, they have no problems with 'Jews'.
They do have a major problem with 'ZIonism', though.
So, again: why should they issue a 'fatwa against Jews'? They already have fatwas against Zionism.
BTW, if you expect them to issue a fatwa against 'Jews', then why don't you expect them to issue a fatwa against all the 'Christian Zionists', too?
Anyway: religious issues are influencing Hezbollah's official language, that's sure. See: Occupied Territories = Palestine etc. But, it's not influencing Hezbollah's targeting. Think, it's about the time to accept something that's likely to sound 'striking', even 'absurd': in this regards, they're more professional than the IDF (including its 'AI-steered' targeting, which, obviously, depends on programming by humans).
Of course, with Israel starting to randomly target Lebanese civilians fleeing its bombardment, so also in Christian villages of Lebanon (and Syria too, meanwhile), then 'gloves are off'. After all, Hezbollah loves presenting itself as a 'protector of (local) Christianity', too.
....and NOBODY in the West (nor in Israel) had anything against Hezbollah (on order from the IRGC) launching its military intervention in Syria of November 2011, to (between others) 'protect Christians' (and spreading corresponding PR-videos in the social media).
Erhm, yes, Iranian government have no problem with Jews, but holocaust denying is they daily bread and butter. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Conference_to_Review_the_Global_Vision_of_the_Holocaust
I.e. it's such kind of covert antisemitism (also popular in the West too.) And yes, Israeli goverment is anti-Palestian. So, when Israeli gov. is bad, that does not mean the other side is good. Life is not fairytale.
When Netanyahu is explaining - and not just once, but to whoever is ready to listen - that 'Hitler didn't want to kill Jews', but 'Muslims told him to do so', then that's no denial of the Holocaust?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9HmkRYlVZw
With other words: leave it at that. To understand why was the Ahmadinejad admin doing such BS, back in the mid-2000s, you would at least need to know how did his clique end, and why. And to know that, you would need to know at least something about the internal makings of the IRI regime.
Gauging by you coming with this kind of 'reader's reaction', now (18 years later), and here, I doubt you've read even what I've posted about that topic on this very blog.
Technically speaking Netanyahu is shifting the blame onto his current enemies, which we called in debating the Nazi Club. You basically kill the debate (because you have no other argument left) by starting to baffle, if this elongation is plausible or not (normally it is not, why you don't use it).
However, this is different to denying something that happened. And yes, you are right, that zionism and Judaism are different and sometimes opposing things. Nevertheless plenty of Jews left Iran because of the change of politics within Iran although the denial was only done by this particular person you mentioned above, that sounded sometimes more as Castro talking about the US than an Iranian politician.
Thank you for this answer. I see no offense in it. Asking this question is also admitting my ignorance and forcing myself to reason better.
There is also clever politics. Right now Europe is increasingly pro-Palestinian and ambivalent on Iran.
Start targeting civilians and that dynamic changes.
I have no doubt that given a chance Iranians, Hezbollah but also militaries ofUS, Great Britain, Ukraine and pretty much anyone on the planet would slaughter civilians with glee.
(For those who disagree remember carpet bombing in WW2, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc etc. West prefers it's mass murder to be done remotely with a bomber or missile or starvation than an AK-47 or grenade or machete).
That could also all be boiled down to: a fatwa against "Jews" would be a massive PR own-goal for Iran. There is simply no reason to do it. From the first to the second Intifada and between 1979 and the JCPOA deal the Palestinians and the Iranians learned a tremendous amount about what works and what doesn't in information warfare environment where they're at a huge disadvantage to the Israel Lobby. The basic thing that works is to come across like Gandhi, or at least, ironically, the "David" of the situation. Which, handily enough, they are insofar as the Americans pump the Zionists with billions of dollars of free weapons.
I have to wonder why UNIFIL even exists. If Lebanon were a functioning state and Israel was not a state run by Bibi and his hardline allies it might make sense. But in the now it seems an utterly pointless exercise. Hezbulia is not going to disarm and Israel is not going to stop behaving how it pleases in the space called Lebanon on the map. Why the charade.
Well charade it may be - but when the IDF starts targeting UNFIL personnel directly - it really shows up the sheer blind arrogance of the Israeli's . They act like they can get away with this behaviour for the next 100 years with no kickback .
Why only 100 years?
Well, they tried to sink a US ship and kept receiving military support from the US. Not a lot of consequences there.
It has been there for decades. What it has achieved is probably debatable, but it was created long before this currnt round of conflicts.
IDF targeting UN forces in So. Lebanon--good way to win friends and influence people . . . NOT!
In the midst of all of this combat between Iran (and its proxy, Hezbollah) and Israel, I seem to detect an awful lot of political theater.
Israel gets a Thaad and Ukraine gets nada. Oh wel l . . . .
In Norway the mood of the population switched (very broadly speaking) from Pro-Israeli to neutral and now clearly anti Israeli when the UN peacekeeping forces with Norwegian soldiers returned home beginning in the 80s. The soldiers went to their posts as pro Israeli and returned as anti. This influence the general population. So, yes, you are right. But Israel doesnt care.
It's probably not a coincidence that the UN peacekeeping troops came from already rather anti-Israeli countries (incidentally, Catholic ones.) You are not going to see the Brits, for example, cheerfully volunteering to supply military speedbumps for IDF operations, for the entirely political reason that certain people high up in both political parties realize that this would generate the least advantageous headlines for Israel.
Mostly maybe. But not in the case of Norway. There the mood switched. Sabrah and Chatilla, coupled with ex Un peace keeping soldiers. Of course the killing og a totally innovert guy at a restaurant in a small town in Norway by Mostad and the capture of these agents didnt help.
The US deploying THAAD is a roundabout way of de-escalating the conflict. If the Israelis get properly hit by Iran or whoever it gets very hard for US diplomacy to work and stop the whole thing going up yet another level. The US is busy try to create an off-ramp for all parties concerned. How that is done is anyone's guess!
That THAAD would have been far better used in Ukraine.
Europe is far more important to the US than any nation in the ME.
Lose there and we lose it all...
Yes, but Osrael is a stats in the Us and therefore the most important.
Sry, but that is BS. Half of the defence against the Iranian attack was managed by non Israeli actors, mostly the US.
If they would have gotten hit probably on the snout, they wouldn't be so cheeky hitting back. Same old story: if you can do things without getting repercussion, you continue doing that. If you get hit properly, you stop at that point. Best example for that is Prussian/German militarism.
Deploying combat troops in support of one party is not an off ramp. It's an escalation.
Say it works and Iran pulls back.
That doesn't stop what is happening in Lebanon and Gaza.
Netanyahu is now openly considering ethnic cleansing of north Gaza. Do you think that would stop if Iran stood down its rockets and drones?
It *would* be a roundabout way of de-escalating the conflict if there were anyone whatsoever high up in the state department who could credibly link Israel's ABM defense to genuine de-escalation.
But Blinken is, quite obviously, playing the Good Cop to Netanyahu's Bad Cop.
Thanks Tom!
This is a far different take than the triumphalist Israeli version that even the msm provide.
So ingenious pager attacks (carried out only because Hezbollah was about to discover the op) aren't strategic war winners?
To win, you actually need a strategy, and not Bibi's wishful thinking about Zion from the Nile to the Tigris?
Who knew?
When this war is over there will be a lot of angry & frustrated people who expect results the IDF can never deliver...
Pager attacks have hit next to no combatants, but plenty of civilians related to Hezbollah.
And, exactly as assessed so often before, and then three weeks ago again, 'de-capitating strikes' are an ultimate exercise in failure. They might appear 'spectacular', but Israel is failing with them for 100+ years, meanwhile. Indeed, in the case of Israel, the only de-capitating strike that was useful, was the one that failed (attempt to kill Amer, on 29 October 1956).
As next, yes, theoretically, to win this war, Netanyahu would need a strategy. But, he's got none but to keep himself in power. Therefore, all the IDF has got is the illusion they might be able to kill all of their enemies.
....was tried so often, in hundreds of similar situations over the last 120 years: has never worked. The only thing that worked is something unthinkable for Israel: offering working alternatives.
When this is over, there will be two alternatives: either the Israelis are going to explain how smart they are by pointing out their mistakes (like in 2006), and then everybody is going to start preparing for the next round; or, Israel is going to start falling part, because enough people might realise that this war is the ultimative failure of Zionism.
George Friedman was taught as a student by Bibis father. He said, that the only way forward he saw through strength alone. If you get raised by such a father and don't challenge his narrative(Bibi obviously doesn't), you see showing and applying strength as the only strategy to succeed.
In fact you are turning everybody into enemies, because nobody wants endless wars. It has quite a touch of the development of diplomacy in the Times of Napoleon, who also only new that.
Would have been nice if Hezbollah warnings to evacuate were voiced before they made the North of Israel uninhabitable and displaced 50-100 thousand folks from their homes by way of indiscriminately firing short range rockets and ATGMS for a year. One of my cousins friends had his Corolla blown up by a Kornet during a family picnic. They are living in a motel in central Israel now. For a year.
I am sure they would have been very grateful to hear from Hezbollah that they need to evacuate before strikes begin. But that warning for that area is late by a year.
Oh, can tell you about first hand experience with somebody else asking them such questions.
Those slightly more diplomatic are going to recommend you a detailed study of websites like this one:
https://www.palestineremembered.com/index.html
Those less diplomatic are going to ask you things like if you know atop of whose house was your house and the place where you've had that picnic constructed? Or,
- if the Zionists have warned the population of villages like Dayr Yassin, Tantra and few others, before exterminating their entire populations (yes, including children), back in 1947-1948?
Those not diplomatic the least are going to list you all of their relatives massacred by Israeli air strikes and artillery shelling of Lebanon since 1974.
(....and don't shoot the messenger...)
But Mr. Tom, do you condemn Hamas? Meanwhile the IDF is like “We’re going to go exterminate Palestinians(just means non zionists tho really) and a clown.” And the media would go off in a frenzy about the fucking clown, and they can continue the “See? No one cares about Palestine(brown folks.)”
Excuse my French but what a clusterfuck.
And clearly Uncle Sam has no sway over Israel.
Netanyahu behaves like the US will always send everything Israel needs. But perhaps for the first time in history, the US should choose between Israel and Taiwan. In economic and strategic aspects, Taiwan values a million times more than Israel. If China invades Taiwan it will be interesting to see how the US chooses its friends. Netanyahu can occur in a limited position one by one with different Arabs.
I have no illusions about the American military aid. In the list of American friends Ukraine is in the end.
What you say is true when looking objectively at Israel and Taiwan, but the US has tunnel vision, and won't have a president with the guts to say no to the Zionists. Taiwan still has no defense treaty with the States, just vague assurances of support. China should be smart and apply pressure slowly while knowing the Americans won't stop them.
Thanks for the update. I Wonder how long it will take media to notice that there is no ground invasion going on? Not a succesful at least. Israel isnt breaking Hezbollah as a figthing force by bombing Beirut, Even if they killed Hezbollah leaders.
An embargo.....A COMPLETE EMBARGO of ALL weapons and ammunition to Israel IS the ONLY way that Israel's genocidal war of being a stupid fucking idiot will come to a SCREECHING halt. When the ammo runs out what the fuck are they going to do....USE SLINGS??????????
Sorry about my NON-Francais....volcanic anger can do that to me.
...and once again, my thanks to Iran and Hezbollah for being civil and restrained.
(NEVER thought I would ever say that)
Have you seen the COMPLETE demolition of Mahibib? That's crazy, Dahiya doctrine (and war crimes) at his maximum.
Hello!
1st post, so before anything else: thanks for the work your putting into that.
I've been wondering about the Iranian's goal. Could the October attack have been a way to goad Israeli govt into an absrdly violent answer, this losing support from at least a part of "the west"? Not having that would probably mitigate the enthusiasm Bibi has for bombing his neighbours.
Hi Chris,
For what I know about IRGC's goals, please see:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-149676030
Anyone who can't see the topology of power between Israel and the US at this point is a lost cause, and so, it's a case of so much, so obvious. And what I find particularly illuminating is your realist analysis of Iran and the IRGC. The election of Pezeshkian, supposedly a dove, suggested that Iran has a slightly better functioning democracy than Israel.
Even if Pezeshkian is an IRGC puppet, seems like someone somewhere in the Iranian elite has some regard for paying lip service to Iranian public opinion and its fundamental desire not to get nuked by "Jericho" ICBMs. Much more so than in the highly constrained party systems of the US or UK, or the utterly craven Germany, etc.; where you've basically got a choice between two different flavours of Neocons with more or less explicitly chauvinist presentation styles.
I wrote previously that I had been a firm supporter of Israel for decades having grown up with 'Exodus' and 'Cast a Giant Shadow' and then the '67 War (pre-emptive of course) and then the '73 Ocober War with Israel on the defense.
I did, however, as time went on start questioning Israel's conduct in the 'Occupied' territories and then Lebanon....
It didn't help sympathy for Israel when a Time Magazine article on the '82 invasion had a sidebar on the Nepalese contingent of the UN Peacekeepers on te border with Israel. The reporter wrote of the fact that many of the Nepalese had served in the British Army's Gurkha regiment and carried traditions such as having the silver regimental bell rung to announce tea time (I have always been a sucker for ritual and tradition). He went on to note that as the peacekeepers were only allowed small arms that all the Nepalese would do as Israeli armored engineering vehicles breached the barricades across the roads was take them under light machine gun and rifle fire. - all of the other contingents just 'stood down.' As I read the piece I was thinking that 'if only they had had heavy weapons...'
That was then and the IDF troops just bypassed the unit and continued on - today they would have done a preliminary bombardment...
Then there was 'Sabra and Shatila' and Israel's image took another hit.
Rabin's assassination and Netanyahu's rise further soured my views.
At any rate, from having read an article containing what was claimed to be a a Mossad report after the '48 War that noted that the bulk of the Palestinians fled due to the reports of massacres and other atrocities committed by the various Israeli terrorists in conjunction with the expulsions which were actually publicized by the Zionists. This contrary to the hasabara that they left at the behest of the Arab League to 'clear the field' for the 'annihilation of the Jews...'
One sees a very similar pattern to that strategy in the IDF's current campaign in Lebanon - commit attacks on civilian targets (while claiming them to have a military justification) while warning the population to leave 'active combat zones.'
Likud has set up a conference on 'Resettling Gaza' and there are elements in the current Israeli government that have eyes on Southern Lebanon as well.
Meanwhile the West Bank is (according to articles in Haaretz) 'look like Gaza.'
Interesting how Israel's 'right of self defense' always has it invading neighboring territories...
There was also a piece recently in Haaretz noting that Israel stocks of anti-missile missiles are running low - Ukraine will be getting the 'short end' again.