Israel/Palestine, 10 October 2023: Strategy of blanc Terror

Hello everybody!

Many of you have asked me about ‘strategy’ behind latest developments in the Arab-Israeli conflict. About Iranian and Russian involvement. About logic behind Hamas outrageous attack on Israel.  

Explaining this is certain to contain expressions ‘shocking’ for many. Therefore, few ‘definitions’ before I go on.

A)      Nothing of the following is any kind of endorsement for any acts of violence by either of the parties in the Arab-Israeli conflict – so also not for terrorist attacks on Israel of the last few days. Intentional attacks on civilians are morally unacceptable, despicable acts, and there is no, no, and no justification for them. As far as anybody still cares about that fact: intentional attacks on civilians are – strictly - prohibited by all possible international laws and regulations, regardless if instigated by ‘uniformed combatants’ or ‘freedom fighters’ or ‘terrorists’. I know no ‘but’ in this regards: this is the line I’m pursuing throughout decades of my work, and I’m not going to change it now, whether you like that or not.

B)      The notions of ‘Apartheid’, ‘war crimes’, ‘settler terror’ and ‘pogroms’ by Israel and its institutions in the following assessment are not my inventions, but meanwhile in widespread use by representatives of the Israeli Defence Force (IDF), by parts of the Israeli government, by B’Tselem (Israeli human-rights watch group), Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the UN to describe practices of the Israeli government, Israeli Defence Forces, Israeli juridical system, and settler terrorists vis-à-vis Palestinians. You don’t like the AI, HRW, UN, B’Tselem, IDF, Hamas, Israelis or Palestinians….? Not my problem. If you want to complain about this ‘vocabulary’, feel free to do so at the address of organisations listed above: I’m ‘merely copy-pasting’.

C)      I’ll not post all the links to the following: I’m mature, experienced, and qualified enough to be able to draw conclusions. Furthermore, I have already been requested to ‘avoid posting gore’. Doing so would also be pointless because there is abundance of evidence available online. Finally, and I’m lacking time to draw your attention at all of it. After all, the aim of this assessment is not ‘to explain and document everything’, but to summarise and bring it to the point. Of course, you are free to check every single word: be sure, there’s at least one article in the Israeli media, in English language, confirming every single statement (actually: in most cases, there are 30-50 articles for every single word of the following).

An F-16I of the Israeli Air-Space Force, underway over Gaza. Notable are two 906kg-heavy GBU-31 JDAM-bombs under its inboard underwing pylons (the ‘bomb-like-shape’ under the centreline is a drop tank).

Reason: Pogroms

For understanding the ‘how comes’ of this terror attack on Israel, you need not doing anything else but read this: ‘Pogroms’.

(And, please, be so kind and read carefully, every single word: inform yourself instead of ‘automatically’ complaining or denying.)

So: Pogroms. That’s how the Israeli human rights organisation B’Tselem is characterising actions of the Israeli government against Palestinians in the West Bank in particular, and especially of the last two years. While B’Tselem is relating ‘Pogroms’ to the West Bank, the same is valid for the Gaza Strip, too: the only difference is that terrorist settlers and the IDF didn’t start driving Palestinians out of this area. At least not yet: it should not mean they do not intend to do so.

While reported time and again by the mainstream media in the West, the pogrom of Palestinians was completely ignored at political levels. Instead, in countries like USA, Germany, Austria… standard practice is to counter any official expression of critique for Israel’s actions with accusations of ‘anti-Semitism’, and this practice is widely supported by the mainstream media. One can monitor it, live, in the German media of these days, just for example: any protest in support of Palestine/Palestinians is promptly misdeclared into ‘support for terrorism’, with anchor-men/women, reporters and analysts stressing this and ‘wondering how can our authorities tolerate this’. 

With other words: any possible critique of Israeli actions is promptly silenced – and this despite multiple ministers of the Israeli government making undeniably racist statements in the public, and publicly endorsing the strategy of Apartheid and pogroms of Palestinians – and that again, and again and again, and despite organisations like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and B’Tselem constantly warning about Israeli politics of Apartheid towards Palestinians.

Ironically, the only nation ‘trying to do at least something’, was Saudi Arabia. That is as ironic (but still important to know) because one of fantasies about reasons for this Hamas attack is that it aimed to spoil a ‘normalisation’ of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is not like the Saudis care a lot about Palestinians. Nevertheless, they’ve had one condition for such a treaty: Israel ‘easing’ the life of Palestinians under occupation.

Netanyahu’s government flatly refused. Reportedly, it had no problem even with the Saudi nuclear weapons program, but: it had a massive problem with making the Palestinian life on occupied territories even a bit more bearable. This was entirely out of question. Unsurprisingly, negotiations ended unsuccessfully and that already in mid-August.

No attack in October could influence this any more.

Morale Corruption, Degeneration, and War Crimes of the IDF

The mass of terrorist settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank of the last years and months was undertaken with at least with tacit support of the Israel Defence Force (IDF) – if not with its outright support. In best case, Israeli troops were standing by and watching as the settler terrorists murdered, looted and torched – before ‘extinguishing fires’, ‘collecting evidence’, and condemning ‘these serious incidents’. Actually, they were there to protect terrorist settlers, to prevent Palestinians from counterattacking.

The situation reached levels where the former CO Northern Command IDF, retired General Amiram Levin, clearly stated the situation in the West Bank is ‘total apartheid’, the IDF is a ‘partner in the West Bank war crimes’, resulting in the IDF ‘rotting from the inside’. Even the official spokesman of the IDF, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, warned that settler violence is fuelling Palestinian terrorism, while a former Director of Shin Bet (Israel’s internal intel/security agency) warned:

However, voices of reason remained far too few, there was absolutely no political reaction from abroad, and the pogroms just went on: between 1 January and 6 October this year, over 240 Palestinians (including 42 children) were murdered by terrorist settlers and the IDF, and six Palestinian municipalities were abandoned because of the settler terror. Their inhabitants were ethnically cleansed: by Zionist settlers, with support of the IDF.

Security-wise, this is as important because as the intensity of this campaign of terror grew, and – reportedly – on Netanyahu’s order, the IDF began deploying ever additional of its active units to the West Bank. It withdrew even most of units controlling the fence to the Gaza Strip. Those deployed there were foremost busy supporting and protecting terrorist settlers, rather than running their routine training.

The ‘military analyst & historian’ in me can’t evade the following conclusion: hand on heart, this wasn’t the first time (and probably not the last) some regime in the Middle East exposed itself to external attack because it morally and operationally corrupted its armed forces and then concentrated them for its own-, or the protection of its powerbase.

This is a ‘classic’ in this part of the world. For example in Assadist Syria – or, in opposite sense, in Iran, where the quasi-clerical regime created itself the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), for preventing such situations. Ironic is that the Israelis and their supporters were always boasting this could never happen to them…

…and so, on the evening of 6 October, settler terrorists - carefully protected by the IDF - have forced the inhabitants of another Palestinian village to shut down the place, so the (quote from B’Tselem) ‘Jewish supremacists’ can perform their religious services….

Support from Abroad

With all of this, you have the answer to the accusations about ‘Iran is involved’, ‘Tehran has ordered this’, ‘Russia is involved’, ‘Putin ordered this’, ‘Qatar ordered this’….

Hamas does need Iranian money, arms, anti-tank guided missiles, and UAVs, but does NOT need Tehran to instigate a terrorist attack on Israel. In exactly the same fashion, Hamas does need ‘Russian support’ and ‘Assadist support’ and ‘Hezbollah support’ and is proudly boasting with all of this. But, it does not need any commands from Putin, nor from Assad, or from Hezbollah to organise and launch this operation. Finally, no doubt, Hamas is primarily financed by Qatar, and does need Qatari money. But, nope: Hamas does NOT need Qatari permission to launch a terror strike of this scope.

Just like Nasser was no ‘Soviet puppet’ when nationalising the Suez Canal of 1956, nor have the Soviets planned to destroy Israel of 1967, or the Egyptian and Syrian offensives of October 1973. As ‘unimaginable’ AS this is going to sound to all too many: the ‘Arabs’ can do all of this on their own.

As ‘surprising’ as this conclusion is likely to be for any ‘decent’ racist, ‘Arabs’ are very much capable of thinking and bringing decisions on their own. Above all: Israeli pogroms of the Palestinian population in the West Bank are ‘motivation enough’.

Motivation is determining Strategy

For days already, I’m trying to find a certain video on the YouTube: an interview with an analyst from the Gaza Strip who – and that was ‘years ago’ (could be some 10 years ago) – stated something like (in essence): if the blockade of Gaza is not lifted there will be a massive escalation, with rockets all the way to Tel Aviv, massive attacks on settlements deep inside Israel, and mass hijackings of civilians. I do recall he was belittled back then – if anybody was paying attention at all. I doubt anybody in Israel or the West recalls him any more, and I gave up trying to find that video: I do not have the time.

And since I am 100% sure to have seen such a video, I’m sure that the AMAN (Israel’s military intelligence) must have seen it too. And because it certainly it did, it had at least a clue that something of that kind would happen, sooner or later. And because that was the case, and AMAN is supposed to be – and to remain – professional enough to do so, it certainly issued a corresponding warning to the Israeli government.

Gauging by its own deeds, the Netanyahu government must have ignored all such warnings. Considering different of recent statements by Netanyahu, not to talk about his Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, and their supremacist ideologies and resulting lies, they’ve lulled themselves into a false sense of superiority. Because they are convinced – and ‘confirmed’ by public support and/or ignorance – that nothing can happen to them, regardless what kind of crimes they perpetrate, they have concluded that Hamas must fail whenever it tries.  

Point is: this means that when planning the attack of 7 October, Dief and Sinwar (military commanders of Hamas) didn’t ‘suddenly come to that idea’, but were driven into ‘rewarming an old idea’, because the terror campaign instigated, run, and supported by Netanyahu-government and the IDF left them without other options (which is no ‘excuse’ and even less so an ‘endorsment’: merely a logical conclusion).

How comes?

As described in one of earlier assessments, for the last 20 years, the strategy of organisations like Hamas was orientating on the strategy of Hezbollah from the Lebanon War of 2006. It can be summarised with ‘winning through not losing’. Through surviving any such conflict as a force in being and thus retaining the capability to exercise violence.

In nearly all of battles with Israel, Hamas suffered heavy losses (not as heavy as Israelis are usually claiming, ‘but still’). The targeting capabilities and firepower of the IDF are vastly outmatching those of Palestinians. The result was a cynical calculation: Hamas would suffer heavy losses in any future clash, ‘anyway’. So, why wasting time, money, and troops for another ‘winning through not losing’ round? It was ‘logical’ to go for an ‘all-out attack’; one causing maximum possible damage, maximum possible shock, before suffering inevitable losses. This was the only option not put to test so far.

Why this?

Because ‘Arab’ experiences from earlier phases of this conflict have shown that there is no other way to force Israel into serious negotiations: into negotiations in which Israel is ready to make concessions – but through taking Israel by surprise, and shocking it by massive volumes of terror. See the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War. 

(I’m emphasising again: this is no ‘but’. There is no ‘but’. The Hamas (and PIJ) attack on Israel of 7 October 2023 was an act of despicable terror. Period.)

This is why also theories like, ‘were Hamas to become peaceful…’ are entirely pointless. Cheap excuses.

It might include major charities, but Hamas is a terrorist organisation. Its very purpose of existence is terror: subjecting everybody to its ideology through violent means. Terror of Israelis - and of Palestinians alike. Expecting it to ‘become peaceful’ is an illusion, because (as should be more than well-known by now) one can’t kill ideas. One can only offer ‘working alternatives’ – and in the case of this conflict: NOBODY is offering any.

Point is: it is no surprise that exactly this kind of attack took place. The only ones surprised by what happened on 7 October and ever since, are people ‘not really interested in these affairs’ (regardless how much direct impact they exercise upon their every-day life), intentional ignorants (like Israel’s government, Western politicians and the media), or ideologists and supporters of settler terrorism, racist and supremacist ideologies, and similar practices.

I have stated this already, and I’m going to repeat myself: conclusion is on hand that there was never any doubt that such an attack is going to take place.

The question was only: when.

Shock-Effects in the Media

Precisely this ‘moment of surprise’ – of shock – but also of blind support for Israel regardless of war crimes its own officials have confirmed they are perpetrating (indeed: which they are publicly announcing), is what results in the propaganda campaigns in the Western media about ‘Iran is involved’, ‘Iran ordered this’, and/or ‘Russia is involved’ and ‘Putin ordered this (because there were consultations between Moscow and Hamas)’. In reality, all of this is the same sort of nonsense like ‘Ukraine doesn’t exist as a nation and therefore Russia has no other option for own survival but to disarm, de-nazify, and destroy it’.

Unsurprisingly, and as reported already yesterday: the IDF was the first to deny an Iranian involvement. The US administration in Washington has denied an Iranian involvement, too.

Of course, this is ‘impossible’ – precisely because of all the ignorance vis-à-vis the campaign of Israeli settler terror, combined with usual racism (see: ‘Arabs can’t plot and instigate this on their own’). Thus, not only politicians, but also ‘journalists’, their producers and owners of the media can’t come up with anything else but conspiracy theories – or outright calls for yet more violence, for indiscriminate terror, and for widening this war all the way to Iran.

Not only ironic, but outright idiotic is that in this fashion they are all playing straight into hands of Putin and similar thugs. Characteristically, in the social media one can already read calculations about how many artillery shells and bombs is Israel going to need to (quote) ‘level Gaza’, and thus how many shells the USA are not going to be able to deliver to Ukraine….

Adapted Israeli Strategy

Multiple ministers if the Israeli government are publicly calling to kill, destroy, crush, and starve all Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Minister of defence Yoav Gallant has first (publicly) promised ‘changing the realities in Gaza for 50 years’, then (publicly) called the population of the Gaza Strip ‘human animals’, and (publicly) ordered a ‘complete siege’ of Gaza: electricity, water, and food are cut off. Multiple strikes on clearly marked ambulance cars have already been recorded. Entire neighbours are bombed out, multiple hospitals, UN-run schools, markets (indeed: the busiest market in the most densely populated of refugee camps in the Gaza Strip), the main telecommunications company, medical personnel and local journalists have been destroyed.

Means: faithful to the very same policy it is pursuing for years already, the Netanyahu government is converting its ideological designs into official policy of intentional attacks on civilians by the IDF and the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF).

This ambulance car in the Gaza Strip was destroyed - and medical personnel inside killed - by an Israeli strike already on 7 October 2023.

This is obvious even from armament deployed by combat aircraft of the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF) to bomb the Gaza Strip of the last two days: all the photographs released so far are showing IASF F-15s and F-16s loaded with US-made, 907kg-heavy, GBU-31 JDAMs (GPS-guided bombs). Not with any kind of lighter weapons (like so-called ‘small diameter bombs’, as at earlier times):

Once again, this is no ‘but’: conclusion is on hand that the Israelis are openly acting in exactly the same fashion like Hamas. They are admitting this, too: the purpose of this ‘military operation’ is maximum damage. And this is ignored by Western politicians and supported (or at least ‘endorsed’) by the majority of the public in the social media. All, supposedly, in the name of ‘what it takes to destroy Hamas’.

That much about ‘strategy’ in this war.

***

Reminder: all intentional attacks on civilians, campaigns of ethnic cleansing, and the collective punishment is a war crime.

….and, as far as I know, none of related laws is distinguishing between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ war crimes.

Bottom line, the strategy of both sides can only be summarised with blanc terror. Excessive, disproportionate violence for the purpose of terror. There is no military finesse in it, no matter what side.