For some reason you're as biased towards Jordanian Arabs as BBCs of this world. I understand your soft spot for the "underdog" -- there's some satisfaction if underdog can beat the stronger bigger rival. Is that the reason?
Me? It's the same like cross-checking claims by diverse of Israeli historians (see 'Foxbats over Dimona'), or by 'aces' of their air force - through cross-checking, with their own, and with Arab sources.
Disturbed by that?
And regarding 'Jordanian Arabs': if you'Re so sensitive about them, you should know that up to two thirds of them are Palestinians. How comes you don't?
BBC biased towards Arabs, haha. BBC is terrified that every word they say is checked by Jewish lawyers and Jewish activist groups. Here's one example. Did you hear the interview this morning with Deputy Mayor Of Jerusalem? She was ranting like a mad woman, never answered the questions, and the interviewer gave her all the time to speak and was always polite. Then they interviewed someone representing Hamas position and interrupted him constantly, practically called him a liar. That's BBC bias towards Arabs for you.
Oh yes, I remember two nights before how BBC was happy to jump on Qatar's Hamas's Al Jazeera's bangwagon of spreading disinfo as "facts." BBC is full of wide-eyed commie worshiping (Soviet Union wasn't so bad after all spreading "socialism power to the people" across the world ) , British colonialism bad (re giving away "Palestine" to "Khazar Ashkenazi wanna-be Jew invaders") people.
Nope. As soon as Israel denied it was them, the BBC reported that Hamas said it was Israel and Israel said it was Hamas. Within a very short time BBC was saying Israel was most probably innocent.
^ And that's how Israel silences any and all criticism of itself, by implying its critics are anti-Semites. Thankfully most regular people can distinguish between Israel, Jews, and Zionism and they are beginning to call their bluff. Turns out people don't like being called bigots for having questions about the apartheid ethno-religious state their taxes are funding. Keep doing it though, it only wakes more people up to the reality of the situation.
Reality is this: you got a bunch of people living in the Western democracies who support non-democractic societies only because of their self-imposed "colonizer guilt." Arabs/Palestinians were given plenty of chances to setup their own state in their lands, without resorting to several wars against Israel. Why they didn't so?
Re "apartheid" and "gaza open air prison" -- common, they have plenty of border with Egypt, they are not an enclave inside Israel. Like, as Ukraine blocks all trade and movement with Russia, should we be called "apartheid state" because we don't want to deal with bloody Russians at all??? Really?
If Gazans need water/energy/whatever they are free to get supply from their lovely Egyptian neighbours -- what's the deal here?
Of course we should should always trust Hamas news agency, example of truthful organization, not that mean European news agencies who now basically saying it’s not Israel missile
If you like, can find you a video of the current Israeli minister of finances declaring Hamas 'an asset', and the Fatah a 'liability', too.
It's really so: knowledge about this conflict HELPS. It is available, too. One just needs to spend few minutes to search for it. And then everything is crystal clear.
I would like to comment on your statement about the phone conversation between the " freedom fighters" being a fake because they stopped using cell phones
Ther Russians army prohibits desertion so I guess the prisoners shown by the Ukranians are fake impersonators since no soldier or fighter will dissobey orders even crap happens around you
Me thinks, a bomb like GBU-39 or GBU-53. 110-113kg. Small enough not to pulverise everything around it, bigger than what Hamas and PIJ are shooting at Israel.
That said, I find photos showing a crater some 1m wide and up to 1m deep, which appeared meanwhile in the social media, slightly more relevant.
Maybe, just maybe, the whole point was to create a distraction.
To drop a "small" bomb on a hospital while hamas/pij are shooting rockets and then blame hamas/pij. The rest, as we can see now, is done by the media----the narrative now "hamas bombs its own people".
I thought the same thing, it could be the FLM GBU-39 A/B version with carbon fiber casing the crater could be compatible with the shallow crater and few fragments
Fake or not, how about discussing the actual site of explosion, the Hamas's claims that "500 are dead after IDF strike" immediately after the explosition and Al Qatajeera immediately spreading their claims?
There is no difference between people like you and RuZZians. You are just two sides of the same blood-crazed filthy coin.
Israel literarily threatened to bomb multiple hospitals including this one during the past 3 days. Officials boasts about it in the munities after. It bombed so many civilians buildings like this bakery (https://twitter.com/MuhammadSmiry/status/1714573185746686335 ). It bombed the convoys of people fleeing as Israel told them on the roads Israel told them. It has done so many mass murder on the open.
And you are pretending to not realize that. Finding sadistic joy in the process. All while not hiding in the slightest your disregard for Palestinians lives and indeed, hinting at your joy about their massacre. Like some Putinist on Ukraine, Assadists on Syria or Nazis in their time.
Words can not begin to describe the filth you are.
Canon Richard Sewell, the dean of St George's College in Jerusalem, told the BBC that about 1,000 displaced people were sheltering in the courtyard when it was hit, and about 600 patients and staff were inside the building.
BBC reporter Rushdi Abualouf has been to the the Al Ahli Hospital this morning. Witnesses there report scenes of devastation, and say bodies are still being collected.
Right, but where is the number of dead? I don't see it. I follow Ukrainian conflict. I am yet to see any event where more than 60 people got killed in Ukraine. I am not an expert but images of destruction just do not support hundreds of dead. Sorry...
The number is confirmed by several neutral sources like MSF International you filthy dog.
You mean the same newssites spewing Israelis propaganda since years ? Those who relayed this beheaded babies fake news ? Those could not name Israel when Israel kills their own journalists like the Reuters crew a few days ago ?
You dont even believe your talking point yourself.
Look at what happened in Mariupol after the Russian air strike -- there was a bloody HUGE impact crater in the middle of the Miariupol theatre. There was later released video evidence of people hiding in the lower levels on that theatre.
But here we've got no evidence of "1000 sheltering in the courtyard" -- I mean, look at the size of that courtyard, and think if 1000 were there, even after this rocket strike, there would be too many bodies still around in the morning after. Yet, there's no bloody photo/video evidence, only inflated (by 50x-100x I think) numbers from "Hamas MOH".
I saw that tweet from that account on my timeline. Good thing he removed it because we would have roasted him. Otherwise its still not clear who was behind the bombing.
Do not let the truth ruin a good story. 500+ dead after a strike on hospital? What a great headline. Almost as good as those beheaded babies. That it would take some serious on-site investigation to confirm all the claims? Who cares. It is not possible at the moment so lets all argue over it based on some footage and pictures that may or may not be edited. At the end you have to choose which team you root for because both tend to claim whatever fits their need.
I don´t choose any team, but I hate the Israel team represents themselves as the good guys, which they aren´t. Doesn´t mean Hamas and fellows are any better...
The big picture here is that the US and most of the big NATO powers are allowing themselves to be very quickly dragged into an information war in which they're committed to the credibility of Netanyahu and the IDF. That could have dire repercussions for their credibility elsewhere.
Hi Tom! I'm finding your opinion on this specific case interesting, because I've found analysis elsewhere which seemed pretty fact-based and convincing to me and led me to believe that the Israeli propaganda is telling the truth this time. I think you are open minded to facts and analysis based on facts, can you share why you think the following two threads are wrong, in case you've seen them before?
This one is more of an analysis of the blast site, the conclusion is that it was most likely a smaller explosive, consistent with the failed Hamas rocket theory and the fatality numbers are probably inflated by the Gazan Health Ministry, although it was most likely still a mass casualty event: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678
My post above is discussing official Israeli fake news.
Now, regarding was there an attack or not:
- the first video you've linked appears genuine. Open it to full screen. you're going to see a 'light ray' coming from the mist from the lower left, up to the missile - before exploding it.
Debris of the missile is falling somewhere below it.
Some time after, there are two detonations on the ground.
...the same blowing up the missile, and the Israelis then proceeding with 'counter-battery fire', trying to hit the launch site.
....and then something went wrong, and now they're busy fabricating 'evidence', just like when the Russians had to fabricate evidence when their Su-24 was shot down by Turks, after violating their airspace, back in November 2015.
Yes, looks like the rocket got intercepted and explodes. Since there is no trail anymore after that, it's very unlikely that the maybe cut off warhead moved in the direction of the hospital. Just simple vector calculation. And time would be to short for a not accellerated warhead to reach the ground between interception and explosion. So counter-battery fire sounds plausible
This is a reader comment from another substack, which is analysing the likelyhood of intentional/unintentional Israeli/Hamas cause of the explosion:
Start Quote: "Ryan, I am rather surprised and disappointed with your assessment of the Netanyahu Government. Corruption is Bibi’s middle name. He is the one individual who is actually benefiting from this horrific situation, as the war has distracted people from his impending Corruption trials.
Israeli Politics aside, that crater photo is interesting. The fusing for whatever weapon created that hole was set for contact (aka a “Daisy cutter”), not destruction (or “Delay”, usually used for destroying buildings or dug-in emplacements).
Any of the three American-made weapons you mentioned would have created more destruction than what I viewed in those two photos - note the burned out cars still arrayed in more or less organized rows. The blast radius from the small diameter bomb, fuse set on contact, would have created sufficient blast to turn anything in the open within 50 meters into very small bits, and the damage to the rest of that courtyard would reflect a massive pressure wave event. Note that I offer the hypothetical results of the smallest of the three air-delivered weapons.
Could this have been some kind of hone-made rocket gone astray? Possibly. I need to know more about the missile - amount of explosive, fuse mechanism, where it came from and where it was aimed - in order to confirm or dismiss that possibility.
I note that you did not mention the possibility that this may have been an Israeli Artillery “winger”, or stray 155 mm round.
I served in the Royal Canadian Artillery for 12 years, and I’m quite familiar with the effects of various forms of artillery munitions. I have to tell you, Ryan, that the damage to the parking lot and the size of that crater particularly, inspires me to think of a 155mm HE round with a Mechanical Timed Super Quick fuse, set for impact.
Did somebody analyze the shape of the crater? It is asymmetric with most of the shards damage going one way. That may hint at where the missile came from.
Thus Arabic news of Israeli bombing the hospital to dust with half a thousand people under the rubble are not more reliable than Ukrainian Feb 2022 reports of Russian tanks in the streets of Kyiv.
155mm - makes sense to me. wonder why I did not got it to myself!
What annoyed me, maps/sattelite pictures that aren´t orientated to north or at least have a north arrow on it, makes it different to reconstruct the trajectory and the direction of missile/shell or what ever came in.
Thank you for the answer, it's a new theory for me (haven't seen it elsewhere).
The GeoConfirmed account put up some new info since than, in short they think the rocket changed course before breaking in two, that's why it was able to hit the hospital, and made two consecutive explosions.
Honestly I can't see the laser weapon in the video, but maybe I just need a bigger monitor. I'll tell my wife, she'll surely agree with the necessity now! :D
Overall I can't dismiss either possiblity partly because of my ignorance of ballistics and weapon systems. Thank you again for your work!
The first video shows the debris are unlikely would fall on the ground just in 3 sec. Something else started fire seemingly of the palm tree droping fired leaves? There is an entirely burned out tree next to the crater on the corner of the parking and the place refugees were resting. This may also explain why there is so much ash on the parcking.
That video doesn't seem to show connected events. First of all, when a moving rocket explodes its fragments are not going to fall down to the ground (it's not Star Wars), they will continue to travel in the same direction. Lighter fragments will lose speed pretty fast due to air resistance, but heavy parts like a warhead (provided it didn't explode with the rest of the rocket) will continue to climb up for some time while moving forward. It's hard to judge distance from the video, but the original trajectory was aimed way too farther than the hospital, why would it change? Exploded rocket doesn't have any propulsion so it can't change its trajectory drastically.
Second problem with explanations I see from weapon experts is that it's non-burned fuel which caused the damage. I doubt much fuel could survive the explosion on the video.
So if it indeed was a HAMAS rocket, this doesn't look like the one.
Add to that the shreeky sound on another video before explosion (let's assume that video is not fake). A free-falling warhead (engine exploded, see above) won't produce any sound like that.
Canon Richard Sewel, of the St George's College in Jerusalem, said there were around 1,500 people in and around the hospital at the time of attack. Feel free to correct him:
I don`t have to trough, he is writing there were 1k people in the square and not the number of casualties. The number of casualties stays unverified, everything else seems speculation and until shown more evidence, i`ll not believe it.
But i wonder how big is the square and is it even humanly possible to have so many people on such small space. But i don`t see not single country re-guesting Hamas to surrender, they have no chance and other Arabs countries politics is just killing them. Time to open the borders and give them citizenship, Palestine is just illusion.
What bothers me is that with several hundreds people killed in this yard the whole ground, both parking lot and grass, would be covered in blood. Just can’t see it in any photos. They are taking about collecting body parts and... no blood at all? Is it something I don’t understand?
While I won't deny that Israeli propaganda exists for a second, to be fair, we should also mention Hamas propaganda which the whole world believed without question: the destroyed hospital with 200, 500 and later even 1000 dead under the rubbles and when the sun came up we are talking about a bunch of burned cars in a parking lot. If we are talking propaganda then talk about both sides.
(I'm not saying there are no casualities or it's fine what happened, don't even try to start Strawman me!)
Of course, exactly after you pointed me where I said that you are using Hamas propaganda :) try not to take everything personal, you are better than that
Very little. Got several 'helpers' from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.
Before that question emerges: nope, they're all apolitical, mostly having no trace of clue about what's going on in Israel/Palestine, and living in entirely different parts of the world. To still remain on the safe side, I'm always letting at least two of them to translate the same piece of text.
And then this https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1714435256919461938/photo/1
is this that bomb ? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8y8OLjWUAAfJlA?format=jpg&name=small
Stay with Zionist talking points: they're spreading electronically....
Do you expect me to start posting photos of body-parts and body-bags in response?
If you're after a pissing contest, Igor: that's not going to last very long.
Don't worry, 'Shiba': there were no human victims of any Israeli attacks on Palestinians - ever. Because Palestinians are 'human animals'.
Who has told you I trust Hamas a single word?
Indeed: who has told you I'm in touch with Hamas?
Please, be so kind to answer. Otherwise this exchange is over.
For some reason you're as biased towards Jordanian Arabs as BBCs of this world. I understand your soft spot for the "underdog" -- there's some satisfaction if underdog can beat the stronger bigger rival. Is that the reason?
Me? It's the same like cross-checking claims by diverse of Israeli historians (see 'Foxbats over Dimona'), or by 'aces' of their air force - through cross-checking, with their own, and with Arab sources.
Disturbed by that?
And regarding 'Jordanian Arabs': if you'Re so sensitive about them, you should know that up to two thirds of them are Palestinians. How comes you don't?
BBC biased towards Arabs, haha. BBC is terrified that every word they say is checked by Jewish lawyers and Jewish activist groups. Here's one example. Did you hear the interview this morning with Deputy Mayor Of Jerusalem? She was ranting like a mad woman, never answered the questions, and the interviewer gave her all the time to speak and was always polite. Then they interviewed someone representing Hamas position and interrupted him constantly, practically called him a liar. That's BBC bias towards Arabs for you.
Oh yes, I remember two nights before how BBC was happy to jump on Qatar's Hamas's Al Jazeera's bangwagon of spreading disinfo as "facts." BBC is full of wide-eyed commie worshiping (Soviet Union wasn't so bad after all spreading "socialism power to the people" across the world ) , British colonialism bad (re giving away "Palestine" to "Khazar Ashkenazi wanna-be Jew invaders") people.
Nope. As soon as Israel denied it was them, the BBC reported that Hamas said it was Israel and Israel said it was Hamas. Within a very short time BBC was saying Israel was most probably innocent.
Zionist? That’s how hamas and other people who want Israel disappear call Israelis
Freudian slip?
^ And that's how Israel silences any and all criticism of itself, by implying its critics are anti-Semites. Thankfully most regular people can distinguish between Israel, Jews, and Zionism and they are beginning to call their bluff. Turns out people don't like being called bigots for having questions about the apartheid ethno-religious state their taxes are funding. Keep doing it though, it only wakes more people up to the reality of the situation.
Reality is this: you got a bunch of people living in the Western democracies who support non-democractic societies only because of their self-imposed "colonizer guilt." Arabs/Palestinians were given plenty of chances to setup their own state in their lands, without resorting to several wars against Israel. Why they didn't so?
Re "apartheid" and "gaza open air prison" -- common, they have plenty of border with Egypt, they are not an enclave inside Israel. Like, as Ukraine blocks all trade and movement with Russia, should we be called "apartheid state" because we don't want to deal with bloody Russians at all??? Really?
If Gazans need water/energy/whatever they are free to get supply from their lovely Egyptian neighbours -- what's the deal here?
Of course we should should always trust Hamas news agency, example of truthful organization, not that mean European news agencies who now basically saying it’s not Israel missile
It didn't help that Israel is actually helping Hamas in this. The whole situation is a mess, and it's becoming even more messy with every passing day.
Stop half-assed attempts at obfuscation first, then stop indiscriminately bombing civilians. Israel supposed to be more professional than this.
So UN-employees from diffrent countries stating that they are getting bombed in schools and hospitals does not count?
You might want to start here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/30/how-israel-helped-create-hamas/
....and continue here:
https://theintercept.com/2018/02/19/hamas-israel-palestine-conflict/
If you like, can find you a video of the current Israeli minister of finances declaring Hamas 'an asset', and the Fatah a 'liability', too.
It's really so: knowledge about this conflict HELPS. It is available, too. One just needs to spend few minutes to search for it. And then everything is crystal clear.
I would like to comment on your statement about the phone conversation between the " freedom fighters" being a fake because they stopped using cell phones
Ther Russians army prohibits desertion so I guess the prisoners shown by the Ukranians are fake impersonators since no soldier or fighter will dissobey orders even crap happens around you
meant crap happens around THEM
Is the Russian Army = Hamas?
If so, please enlighten me: since when is a terrorist organisation with ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood recruiting from the VSRF?
It defies credibility that many in Hamas do not use cell phones. Everyone uses cellphones.
The first link to Twitter ("intercepted call") is broken
Thx, corrected: it should work now.
What are your thoughts about footage appeared in the morning?
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714525590873575600?t=fXccmvolBFU_V9_6YO2efQ&s=19
Me thinks, a bomb like GBU-39 or GBU-53. 110-113kg. Small enough not to pulverise everything around it, bigger than what Hamas and PIJ are shooting at Israel.
That said, I find photos showing a crater some 1m wide and up to 1m deep, which appeared meanwhile in the social media, slightly more relevant.
What's the purpose of using this kind of bomb that does barely any damange considering Israelis want to reach hardened targets?
Defies logic.
Yes, it defies logic, but RUMINT has it that the primary purpose of weapons is killing people.
Gauging by knowledge you've demonstrated by now, that's certainly out of question for you.
But hamas takes it to heart
hardened targets like Hamas uses lots of MBTs and self propelled howitzers?
Maybe, just maybe, the whole point was to create a distraction.
To drop a "small" bomb on a hospital while hamas/pij are shooting rockets and then blame hamas/pij. The rest, as we can see now, is done by the media----the narrative now "hamas bombs its own people".
The resulting crater is asymmetrical thus it may reveal the direction of the impact
It does: it points at a shell or bomb coming from north-east.
From Israel.
Many sources over the internet state that the shallow/wide/cone part of craters points towards the mortar https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/6-121/61210051.gif
That makes the mortar to be SW according to the pictures in your latest post.
I thought the same thing, it could be the FLM GBU-39 A/B version with carbon fiber casing the crater could be compatible with the shallow crater and few fragments
Fake or not, how about discussing the actual site of explosion, the Hamas's claims that "500 are dead after IDF strike" immediately after the explosition and Al Qatajeera immediately spreading their claims?
It is not Hamas who is "claiming" 500 killed in the hosptal for fuck sake.
Do you even realize the hospital was run by Anglican charity ?
Sure, those guys are also being hostage to Hamas/PIJ. You think they are free to publish the truth? I've got news coming for you ^)
There is no difference between people like you and RuZZians. You are just two sides of the same blood-crazed filthy coin.
Israel literarily threatened to bomb multiple hospitals including this one during the past 3 days. Officials boasts about it in the munities after. It bombed so many civilians buildings like this bakery (https://twitter.com/MuhammadSmiry/status/1714573185746686335 ). It bombed the convoys of people fleeing as Israel told them on the roads Israel told them. It has done so many mass murder on the open.
And you are pretending to not realize that. Finding sadistic joy in the process. All while not hiding in the slightest your disregard for Palestinians lives and indeed, hinting at your joy about their massacre. Like some Putinist on Ukraine, Assadists on Syria or Nazis in their time.
Words can not begin to describe the filth you are.
I just don't like lies/propaganda like this https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1714435256919461938/photo/1
Have not heard anything from Anglican charity. Palestinian Health Ministry (basically Hamas ) has claimed 500 killed.
Well, then you've just missed the BBC's report, including info from the Anglican Church:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67144061.amp
Where does it say about 500 dead?
Canon Richard Sewell, the dean of St George's College in Jerusalem, told the BBC that about 1,000 displaced people were sheltering in the courtyard when it was hit, and about 600 patients and staff were inside the building.
BBC reporter Rushdi Abualouf has been to the the Al Ahli Hospital this morning. Witnesses there report scenes of devastation, and say bodies are still being collected.
Right, but where is the number of dead? I don't see it. I follow Ukrainian conflict. I am yet to see any event where more than 60 people got killed in Ukraine. I am not an expert but images of destruction just do not support hundreds of dead. Sorry...
All newssites cited Palestinian Health Ministry as a source, which is Hamas. So get your facts straight.
The number is confirmed by several neutral sources like MSF International you filthy dog.
You mean the same newssites spewing Israelis propaganda since years ? Those who relayed this beheaded babies fake news ? Those could not name Israel when Israel kills their own journalists like the Reuters crew a few days ago ?
You dont even believe your talking point yourself.
Look at what happened in Mariupol after the Russian air strike -- there was a bloody HUGE impact crater in the middle of the Miariupol theatre. There was later released video evidence of people hiding in the lower levels on that theatre.
But here we've got no evidence of "1000 sheltering in the courtyard" -- I mean, look at the size of that courtyard, and think if 1000 were there, even after this rocket strike, there would be too many bodies still around in the morning after. Yet, there's no bloody photo/video evidence, only inflated (by 50x-100x I think) numbers from "Hamas MOH".
Checking all of that is taking time. Please, be patient: I do not have a paid team of fact-checkers, but have to do my everyday job, too.
I saw that tweet from that account on my timeline. Good thing he removed it because we would have roasted him. Otherwise its still not clear who was behind the bombing.
Do not let the truth ruin a good story. 500+ dead after a strike on hospital? What a great headline. Almost as good as those beheaded babies. That it would take some serious on-site investigation to confirm all the claims? Who cares. It is not possible at the moment so lets all argue over it based on some footage and pictures that may or may not be edited. At the end you have to choose which team you root for because both tend to claim whatever fits their need.
I don´t choose any team, but I hate the Israel team represents themselves as the good guys, which they aren´t. Doesn´t mean Hamas and fellows are any better...
Israel is not helping itself with this level of clumsiness. They did it the same way in 9/11.
That’s a good question: Why the “Ángels” need to lie?
The big picture here is that the US and most of the big NATO powers are allowing themselves to be very quickly dragged into an information war in which they're committed to the credibility of Netanyahu and the IDF. That could have dire repercussions for their credibility elsewhere.
Already happened https://meduza.io/feature/2023/10/18/eto-dar-nebes-dlya-rossii
(The link leads to an abstract in Russian because the original FT publication is behind a paywall)
Hi Tom! I'm finding your opinion on this specific case interesting, because I've found analysis elsewhere which seemed pretty fact-based and convincing to me and led me to believe that the Israeli propaganda is telling the truth this time. I think you are open minded to facts and analysis based on facts, can you share why you think the following two threads are wrong, in case you've seen them before?
This one tries to prove that the missile that fell on the hospital was fired from Gaza, (most likely an accident) it uses multiple footages and open-source geolocation: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390254935851272
This one is more of an analysis of the blast site, the conclusion is that it was most likely a smaller explosive, consistent with the failed Hamas rocket theory and the fatality numbers are probably inflated by the Gazan Health Ministry, although it was most likely still a mass casualty event: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678
My post above is discussing official Israeli fake news.
Now, regarding was there an attack or not:
- the first video you've linked appears genuine. Open it to full screen. you're going to see a 'light ray' coming from the mist from the lower left, up to the missile - before exploding it.
Debris of the missile is falling somewhere below it.
Some time after, there are two detonations on the ground.
To me, this is looking like Israelis deploying this thingy: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tests-laser-missile-defence-iron-dome-gaza-hamas
...the same blowing up the missile, and the Israelis then proceeding with 'counter-battery fire', trying to hit the launch site.
....and then something went wrong, and now they're busy fabricating 'evidence', just like when the Russians had to fabricate evidence when their Su-24 was shot down by Turks, after violating their airspace, back in November 2015.
Yes, looks like the rocket got intercepted and explodes. Since there is no trail anymore after that, it's very unlikely that the maybe cut off warhead moved in the direction of the hospital. Just simple vector calculation. And time would be to short for a not accellerated warhead to reach the ground between interception and explosion. So counter-battery fire sounds plausible
This is a reader comment from another substack, which is analysing the likelyhood of intentional/unintentional Israeli/Hamas cause of the explosion:
Start Quote: "Ryan, I am rather surprised and disappointed with your assessment of the Netanyahu Government. Corruption is Bibi’s middle name. He is the one individual who is actually benefiting from this horrific situation, as the war has distracted people from his impending Corruption trials.
Israeli Politics aside, that crater photo is interesting. The fusing for whatever weapon created that hole was set for contact (aka a “Daisy cutter”), not destruction (or “Delay”, usually used for destroying buildings or dug-in emplacements).
Any of the three American-made weapons you mentioned would have created more destruction than what I viewed in those two photos - note the burned out cars still arrayed in more or less organized rows. The blast radius from the small diameter bomb, fuse set on contact, would have created sufficient blast to turn anything in the open within 50 meters into very small bits, and the damage to the rest of that courtyard would reflect a massive pressure wave event. Note that I offer the hypothetical results of the smallest of the three air-delivered weapons.
Could this have been some kind of hone-made rocket gone astray? Possibly. I need to know more about the missile - amount of explosive, fuse mechanism, where it came from and where it was aimed - in order to confirm or dismiss that possibility.
I note that you did not mention the possibility that this may have been an Israeli Artillery “winger”, or stray 155 mm round.
I served in the Royal Canadian Artillery for 12 years, and I’m quite familiar with the effects of various forms of artillery munitions. I have to tell you, Ryan, that the damage to the parking lot and the size of that crater particularly, inspires me to think of a 155mm HE round with a Mechanical Timed Super Quick fuse, set for impact.
Hamas doesn’t field those, buddy." End Quote
155mm shell.... yup, that's making even more sense: some 40-45kg....
Did somebody analyze the shape of the crater? It is asymmetric with most of the shards damage going one way. That may hint at where the missile came from.
Yes. Have asked a few people to do so. They say: 155mm shell.
Thus Arabic news of Israeli bombing the hospital to dust with half a thousand people under the rubble are not more reliable than Ukrainian Feb 2022 reports of Russian tanks in the streets of Kyiv.
155mm - makes sense to me. wonder why I did not got it to myself!
What annoyed me, maps/sattelite pictures that aren´t orientated to north or at least have a north arrow on it, makes it different to reconstruct the trajectory and the direction of missile/shell or what ever came in.
Thank you for the answer, it's a new theory for me (haven't seen it elsewhere).
The GeoConfirmed account put up some new info since than, in short they think the rocket changed course before breaking in two, that's why it was able to hit the hospital, and made two consecutive explosions.
Honestly I can't see the laser weapon in the video, but maybe I just need a bigger monitor. I'll tell my wife, she'll surely agree with the necessity now! :D
Overall I can't dismiss either possiblity partly because of my ignorance of ballistics and weapon systems. Thank you again for your work!
You know the official version about Kennedy's atentate in Dallas of 1963, with 'wonder-bullet' flying zig-zag and wounding/killing two-three persons?
That's what's coming to my mind when I read GeoConfirmed's explanations for this case.
The first video shows the debris are unlikely would fall on the ground just in 3 sec. Something else started fire seemingly of the palm tree droping fired leaves? There is an entirely burned out tree next to the crater on the corner of the parking and the place refugees were resting. This may also explain why there is so much ash on the parcking.
That video doesn't seem to show connected events. First of all, when a moving rocket explodes its fragments are not going to fall down to the ground (it's not Star Wars), they will continue to travel in the same direction. Lighter fragments will lose speed pretty fast due to air resistance, but heavy parts like a warhead (provided it didn't explode with the rest of the rocket) will continue to climb up for some time while moving forward. It's hard to judge distance from the video, but the original trajectory was aimed way too farther than the hospital, why would it change? Exploded rocket doesn't have any propulsion so it can't change its trajectory drastically.
Second problem with explanations I see from weapon experts is that it's non-burned fuel which caused the damage. I doubt much fuel could survive the explosion on the video.
So if it indeed was a HAMAS rocket, this doesn't look like the one.
Add to that the shreeky sound on another video before explosion (let's assume that video is not fake). A free-falling warhead (engine exploded, see above) won't produce any sound like that.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1714984258358391057
There is a death of video showing any damage to a building despite everyone in creation owning a cellphone.
'dearth'
They are out of power supply for several days. Those modern phones discharge very quickly.
Come on.
So, the hospital was never afire, because you've missed videos showing it on fire?
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1714378735854448811
Yes. Haven't seen any damage to a building either. Very basic.
So when will you write a post debunking the Hamas claim that 500 people were killed by a rocket leaving not even a crater, just some burnt cars?
Canon Richard Sewel, of the St George's College in Jerusalem, said there were around 1,500 people in and around the hospital at the time of attack. Feel free to correct him:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67144061.amp
Yet, it still looks like the number 500 is also fake.
Canon of the St George's College in Jerusalem, Richard Sewell, says something else to the BBC. Feel free to correct him:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67144061.amp
How would he have personal knowledge? That's not a good source? Why is there so little video of casualties?
Well, I'm not religious, thus feel free to tell me: a preacher that's lying - and not in contact with a hospital owned by his church?
....or, would it be better to read that article first?
The absence of video evidence is itself evidence.
The claim that a hospital was hit when it obviously wasn't is suspicious.
There is a grass courtyard nearby. This is a parking lot.
With a bunch of cars in it.
I don`t have to trough, he is writing there were 1k people in the square and not the number of casualties. The number of casualties stays unverified, everything else seems speculation and until shown more evidence, i`ll not believe it.
But i wonder how big is the square and is it even humanly possible to have so many people on such small space. But i don`t see not single country re-guesting Hamas to surrender, they have no chance and other Arabs countries politics is just killing them. Time to open the borders and give them citizenship, Palestine is just illusion.
What bothers me is that with several hundreds people killed in this yard the whole ground, both parking lot and grass, would be covered in blood. Just can’t see it in any photos. They are taking about collecting body parts and... no blood at all? Is it something I don’t understand?
While I won't deny that Israeli propaganda exists for a second, to be fair, we should also mention Hamas propaganda which the whole world believed without question: the destroyed hospital with 200, 500 and later even 1000 dead under the rubbles and when the sun came up we are talking about a bunch of burned cars in a parking lot. If we are talking propaganda then talk about both sides.
(I'm not saying there are no casualities or it's fine what happened, don't even try to start Strawman me!)
No problem. Mind pointing me at Hamas propaganda I'm using?
Of course, exactly after you pointed me where I said that you are using Hamas propaganda :) try not to take everything personal, you are better than that
I'm on the receiving end of some 300 personal attacks a day....
That's why I formulated my comment not to feel like this is the 301st one.
Serious question: Do you speak Arabic?
Very little. Got several 'helpers' from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.
Before that question emerges: nope, they're all apolitical, mostly having no trace of clue about what's going on in Israel/Palestine, and living in entirely different parts of the world. To still remain on the safe side, I'm always letting at least two of them to translate the same piece of text.