Who gained more advantage from the incident? Any notable insights on the arms used? Did we uncover any new information? It's not quite a military analysis.
Me thinks: the IRGC didn't deploy its best, nor the maximum number of missiles it could deploy. But, the Israelis could 'check' such of new and little-known IRGC ballistic missiles like Khaybar-Shekan.
In turn, if careful enough, the IRGC should have been able to 'map' the entire Israeli air defence system plus monitor its performance.
That said, it's not like the Israeli air defence system is that big. The area it covers is small, and the IASF neither can afford nor maintain a bigger number of units. So, they've got (at most) some 8 PAC batteries, 1 David's Sling battery, 2 Arrow II batteries, 1 Arrow III battery, and 8 Iron Dome batteries.
Lets turn the tables: what if Israel uses LOT of modern drones and missiles on Iran military targets? How effective is Iran air defense gonna be? Pretty sure its not 99% or even 49%.
Excellent analysis. Matches my own understanding of the dynamics. Be nice if everyone would accept the tit-for-tat and let it stand.
But if perception is everything in ME affairs, Israel just came off looking vulnerable and dependent on allies. Israelis hate that, especially the hardcore Zionists who want to march to the Euphrates that Netanyahu needs to keep happy.
Biden Administration appears to be playing a game of "okay, if you don't bomb Iran directly we'll give you cover to obliterate Rafah, just don't raise oil prices in an election year."
Yet Netanyahu would love Trump back in office. And Israeli doctrine basically demands that it demonstrate absolute superiority at all times. Will a limited strike on Iranian assets in Syria be enough? If I'm Iran, I just embarked on a six-month dash to having nukes ready for assembly. If I'm Israel, I'm seeing a window to delay this moment closing fast.
If Israel can provoke Iran into hitting US forces, Biden will be dragged into a counterstrike.
Would Biden truly risk a military escalation / conflict against an actual standing army, in MENA out of all places, a few months before elections ? That sounds stupid to me.
Though I admit, him embracing his new Genocide Joe character arc and allowing things to drag on in Palestine with the belief people would somehow "forget" 2 weeks before elections sounded idiotic yet ...
Thanks, Tom, you did this Soap Opera more clearly. It is hard to understand and to see into without knowing specific circumstances. Behind the Iraq-Iran boundary placed the area controlled by Israeli Allies' and despite that Iran reached the territory of Israel and even caused damage.
People are calling this theatrics, but in the days of the Cold War such ballistic missile / ABM "theatrics" were only hypothesized and went by grand sounding titles like Game Theory and were associated with "august" names like Wohlstetter and Kahn. Time will tell but it could be that the the Iranians will be respected in future for a clever piece of brinksmanship here; or it all could turn out to be a totally disastrous piece of hubris.
Seems to me if the Israelis were to escalate, they would have to cross the Rubicon and go for the nuclear facilities. But they can't do this without the US, because they don't have the MOP bunker buster, nor the B-2 to deliver it. I suspect they are going to return to their pattern of anti-proxy strikes and see if they can either goad the Iranians into another escalatory strike, or force them to abandon this "new equation." But barring some false flag attack (...) it's difficult to see them convincing Biden to throw his lot in for a full scale regional war.
(Edit: it's also pretty clear now why the US needs bases in Iraq and Syria. I really do feel rather stupid for buying the standard Chomskyan half-truths of the, "it's for the oil" theory of neocon foreign policy all those years.)
Te referis al "comité de crisis por Israel" jajaja, creo que Tom tendría que dedicarle un informe sobre la geopolítica del gobierno de milei, supongo que lo incluiría en el "idiotismo zombie".
While I agree with you that Israel "do what they want" and retaliate when attacked after it did what it wants, but - isn't Iran do the same but via its proxies? It (Iran) does what it wants via Hezbollah/IGRC and retaliate when Israel attacks these parties involved in organizing attacks on Israel.
So, from my point of view, we have a spiral of violence/cycle of revenge here. And unfortunately, there is no easy way out...
P.S. Always appreciate your answers but could be busy enough to check them timely.
One of the very best write ups on the deplorable kabuki dance of Middle East politics I've read in months. (Even considering the sarcasm.)
This is why I follow Tom's work.
Who gained more advantage from the incident? Any notable insights on the arms used? Did we uncover any new information? It's not quite a military analysis.
Good question.
Me thinks: the IRGC didn't deploy its best, nor the maximum number of missiles it could deploy. But, the Israelis could 'check' such of new and little-known IRGC ballistic missiles like Khaybar-Shekan.
In turn, if careful enough, the IRGC should have been able to 'map' the entire Israeli air defence system plus monitor its performance.
That said, it's not like the Israeli air defence system is that big. The area it covers is small, and the IASF neither can afford nor maintain a bigger number of units. So, they've got (at most) some 8 PAC batteries, 1 David's Sling battery, 2 Arrow II batteries, 1 Arrow III battery, and 8 Iron Dome batteries.
Hard to see that Bibi will just let this go.
It's proved a welcome diversion from his Gaza debacle. The Israeli posters I see are ecstatic, and seem to be saying "on to Tehran!"
Way too much emotion on both sides--as usual...
Lets turn the tables: what if Israel uses LOT of modern drones and missiles on Iran military targets? How effective is Iran air defense gonna be? Pretty sure its not 99% or even 49%.
Excellent analysis. Matches my own understanding of the dynamics. Be nice if everyone would accept the tit-for-tat and let it stand.
But if perception is everything in ME affairs, Israel just came off looking vulnerable and dependent on allies. Israelis hate that, especially the hardcore Zionists who want to march to the Euphrates that Netanyahu needs to keep happy.
Biden Administration appears to be playing a game of "okay, if you don't bomb Iran directly we'll give you cover to obliterate Rafah, just don't raise oil prices in an election year."
Yet Netanyahu would love Trump back in office. And Israeli doctrine basically demands that it demonstrate absolute superiority at all times. Will a limited strike on Iranian assets in Syria be enough? If I'm Iran, I just embarked on a six-month dash to having nukes ready for assembly. If I'm Israel, I'm seeing a window to delay this moment closing fast.
If Israel can provoke Iran into hitting US forces, Biden will be dragged into a counterstrike.
Would Biden truly risk a military escalation / conflict against an actual standing army, in MENA out of all places, a few months before elections ? That sounds stupid to me.
Though I admit, him embracing his new Genocide Joe character arc and allowing things to drag on in Palestine with the belief people would somehow "forget" 2 weeks before elections sounded idiotic yet ...
Thanks, Tom, you did this Soap Opera more clearly. It is hard to understand and to see into without knowing specific circumstances. Behind the Iraq-Iran boundary placed the area controlled by Israeli Allies' and despite that Iran reached the territory of Israel and even caused damage.
People are calling this theatrics, but in the days of the Cold War such ballistic missile / ABM "theatrics" were only hypothesized and went by grand sounding titles like Game Theory and were associated with "august" names like Wohlstetter and Kahn. Time will tell but it could be that the the Iranians will be respected in future for a clever piece of brinksmanship here; or it all could turn out to be a totally disastrous piece of hubris.
Seems to me if the Israelis were to escalate, they would have to cross the Rubicon and go for the nuclear facilities. But they can't do this without the US, because they don't have the MOP bunker buster, nor the B-2 to deliver it. I suspect they are going to return to their pattern of anti-proxy strikes and see if they can either goad the Iranians into another escalatory strike, or force them to abandon this "new equation." But barring some false flag attack (...) it's difficult to see them convincing Biden to throw his lot in for a full scale regional war.
(Edit: it's also pretty clear now why the US needs bases in Iraq and Syria. I really do feel rather stupid for buying the standard Chomskyan half-truths of the, "it's for the oil" theory of neocon foreign policy all those years.)
so a "1 billion" for "1 billion" exchange in ammo with no damage
sounds good for one dead general and one destroyed "embassy"
Outstanding Tom! Thanks for writing what lots of people tired of the MSM are thinking, a d putting on your experience.
If you want some joke to down the tense situation, look what the government of My country, Argentina, is doing...
Te referis al "comité de crisis por Israel" jajaja, creo que Tom tendría que dedicarle un informe sobre la geopolítica del gobierno de milei, supongo que lo incluiría en el "idiotismo zombie".
No, que no gaste ni dos minutos.
Great write up thank you.
Thanks Tom for this read I found it very informative
Tom: BITCHIN' report dude....(ride the wave).... :o)
The only thing I might add regarding Nevatim AFB No. 120 Squadron (Boeing 707 tankers) is:
You meen Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers or are they something different???
Well, slightly different: Boeing 707s converted to tankers (yes, I know, they look 'the same', but internally...).
Okee-day.....T'anks all.....
El 707 tiene un fuselaje ligeramente más ancho que el su equivalente militar.
Good one as usual Tom.
Hi Tom, Thnaks Again . . .Israel ended static with Iran's precision demonstration? Should new reprisals rethink?
While I agree with you that Israel "do what they want" and retaliate when attacked after it did what it wants, but - isn't Iran do the same but via its proxies? It (Iran) does what it wants via Hezbollah/IGRC and retaliate when Israel attacks these parties involved in organizing attacks on Israel.
So, from my point of view, we have a spiral of violence/cycle of revenge here. And unfortunately, there is no easy way out...
P.S. Always appreciate your answers but could be busy enough to check them timely.