Iranian-Israeli Soap-Opera (Episode 624): The Empire strikes back

Hello everybody!

The last night, the sequel to the highly-popular telenovela ‘War on Hamas’ - went on with the streaming of the Episode 624, titled ‘The Empire strikes back’.

Essentially, the Israeli Air-Space Force (IASF) flew a 2.5-wave strike against a number of targets in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

I write ‘2.5-wave’, because the operation began earlier in the evening with the IASF targeting a number of air defence facilities of the Syrian Arab Air Force around Damascus, Homs, Tartus and Latakia, in the Syrian Arab Republic, plus a hotel in Hasbaya, in Lebanon, where it reportedly targeted a meeting of IRGC officers.

With the ‘way free’, the IASF then initiated the first wave of actual attack on Iran. Supported by at least one Gulfstream EL/W-2085 (i.e., an AWACS-version of the Gulfstream G.550), and several Boeing 707 tankers, the first IASF wave - primarily consisting of Boeing F-15I fighter-bombers - then used the airspace of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq to target air defence facilities in western, central, and southern Iran.

One of IASF’s F-15s as seen in the nocturnal skies over Jordan.

Using air-launched ballistic missiles - like IS02 ROCKS (image below) - fired from within the Iraqi airspace, the Israelis targeted positions of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defence Force (IRIADF). For example, the Karaj radar station west of Tehran, one of IRIADF S-300PMU-2 surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites outside Tehran, one MIM-23B I-HAWK SAM-site in southern Tehran, and an IRIADF radar station and air defence facility outside Mahshad, in south-western Iran (about 15-20km north of the northernmost tip of the Persian Gulf).

An IS02 ROCKS as seen during testing, i.e. immediately upon release from an F-16I operated by the flight testing squadron of the IASF.

The second wave then targeted missile- and UAV-factories. For example the Shahid Bakeri and Hemmat works in Khorj (eastern Tehran), Taksaz Industrial Innovators UAV-factory in Shamsabad (outside Tehran): additional missile strikes were reported from Yuftabad, Qods, Qom, Eslamshar, Qoreh, Asadabad, and Ilam in the west and north of Iran, and Abadan and Mahshahr in the south-west.

RUMINT has it that around 100 combat aircraft of the IASF were involved in total.

The IRIADF and the Islamic Revolutionary Air & Space Force (IRGCASF) reported to have shot down an undisclosed number of incoming missiles and ‘light damage’ on unspecified facilities in western- and central Iran. RUMINT in the Iranian social media has it the Israelis have targeted a number of mock installations, that up to 20 incoming missiles were shot down, and that ‘only’ some 10 missiles actually hit anything. The Iranian media then rushed to report ‘no smoke or fire’, while the image/video of ‘big fire and lots of smoke in Iran’ aired on the Israeli TV turned out to be from three years ago (i.e. fake news).

Imam Khomeini IAP outside Tehran is known to have continued operating as usual (failures of the IRGCASF and the IRIADF to ground civilian traffic in cases of emergencies like this meanwhile have a ‘rich tradition’ in Iran).

As of this morning, three civilians are known to have been killed when the Taksaz works were demolished; one officer of the IRIADF was killed when the S-300PMU-2 SAM-site outside Tehran was hit; and another was killed in a hit on the radar and air defence facility outside Mahshad.

Captain Hamzeh Jahandideh of the IRIADF, reportedly killed in the Israeli missile strike on a radar and air defence facility outside Mahshahr. BTW, the fact official Tehran released full ranks and names of its KIA officers usually means it intends to retaliate…

Chief Warrant Officer Shahrkhifar of the IRIADF, killed in the Israeli missile strike on an S-300PMU-2 SAM-site outside Tehran.

Iran is a huge country and although Iranians are keen users of the social media, it’s likely to take some time for additional reports to become available, enabling a better assessment of what exactly the Israelis have targeted, and what have they hit. Similarly, with one exception (see that MIM-23B I-HAWK SAM-site mentionved above), haven’t found any kind of sat-photos-based assessments yet: that’s also going to take time, alone because of the size of Iran and the number of targets.

Right now, certain is only that especially Shahid Bakeri and Hemmat works in Khorj are of crucial importance for the Iranian production of ballistic missiles.

…which is a kind of ‘novelity’ in this soap opera: Iranian missile strikes on Israel in April and early October this year, were retaliations to Israeli strikes on a dipolomatic facility in Damascus and a guest house in Tehran. Iran hit back through striking hardened Israeli air bases. This time, Israel targeted the Iranian military infrastructure - like air defence facilities and missiles- and drones-production: this is making the IRGC ‘free’ to retaliate against similar objects in Israel.

Well.. sigh… at least such targets are less escalatory than certain others (like nuclear facilities, just for example).

…therefore, conclusion is on hand that they all can continue living their lives full of religious fulfillment, and happily killing each other ever after…