Iranian-Israeli Soap Opera (Episode 437)

Good evening everybody!

I sat down to cross-check and write what is who reporting, and what can be concluded from that. It took me a while… because it’s complicated. Even though perfectly simple. Thus, here you are.

- 1.) It was(n't) Israel who flew this counter-strike. At least nobody in Israel said 'it was us'. And if the Israeli media (Ha’aretz, The Times of Israel etc.) says 'it was us', then only because it is quoting from the US media. See: it was only some anonymous Israeli official who said 'it was us' - but then to Washington Post and the ABC News. But: not to the Israeli media.

Thus, there was no such strike at all, at least not by Israel - and everything that's about to follow has never happened.

- 2.) When in doubt, see the Point 1.

- 3.) ABC news, citing a 'senior US official' said it was(n't) Israelis that fired 3 missiles 'from outside Iran'.

- 4.) The wreckage of two missiles found in Iraq looks like that of a Blue Sparrow long-range PGM, the other like that of a ROCKS long-range PGM. Both are made in Israel and operated only by Israel.

This is the Blue Sparrow long-range precision guided munition (as installed on an F-15D of the IASF). The Blue Sparrow came into being from a missile originally developed to simulate ballistic missiles for training purposes. Essentially, it’s an air-launched tactical ballistic missile with a range of at least 400km. The ‘white tube with stickers’-part is the 1st or booster stage. It is used to accelerate the weapon and climb it into ballistic trajectory. The 1st stage falls off once its fuel is spent. Visible to the left of it is the 2nd stage: the part actually flying all the way to the target. This also contains the guidance system of the weapon.

This ‘piece of wreckage’ was found in Iraq and it does look like a booster stage of a Blue Sparrow.

This is an F-16I of the IASF’s Test Squadron (markings of which were retouched from the fin), with a ROCKS test round under its wing. I.e. this is what is an intact ROCKS is looking like. Essentially, it’s a stretched version of the 2nd stage of the Blue Sparrow.

This is a piece of wreckage said to belong to a ROCKS long-range PGM - and was found in Iraq. If that is the case, then the weapon in question malfunctioned and crashed inside Iraq. Alternatively, it was the 1st or booster stage of a Blue Sparrow.: in such case, the booster stage fell off after completing its part of the mission, and the rest of the Blue Sparrow flew off to Iran…

But, Israel did not fly this counter-strike. Therefore, this wreckage found in Iraq can’t be that of any Israeli weapons….

- 5.) Tehran says one strike included UAVs deployed by 'infiltrators': this attacked air defences of the TFB.8 (Khatami/Baba'ie Air Base, outside Esfahan; the home-base of the IRIAF F-14-fleet), but hit nothing.

Arguably, some say something else. I.e. some say that the UAVs have hit a radar of one of S-300PMU-2 SAM-systems operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defence Force, outside TFB.8. Because, you know, it can’t be that the mobile radar in question was actually driven away. Because it’s mobile it can’t be driven away, but must be destroyed…

Moreover, if official Iran said that nothing was hit - and it couldn’t say something was hit, because official Israel didn’t say anything at all - then nothing was hit, you know…

AFAIK, Tehran also said nothing about the other strike: the one by Blue Sparrow and/or ROCKS long-range PGM… ABC News (again, citing a 'senior US official') says this should have targeted a radar site, 'which formed part of the protective infrastructure surrounding the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz’.

But there was no such strike ever, and thus nothing could've been hit, nor was destroyed. Indeed, today was Friday, and in Iran Friday is something like Sunday here in the West: everybody is outside, on a picnic with the family. So, everything was fine today. No surprise Tehran is not upset: how could a strike that never happened destroy anything?

- 6.) Foremost, and that's crucial: because this counter-strike never happened (and if, it was not undertaken by Israel), it has reconstituted the Israeli deterrence: the pillar of Israel's defence, you know…

- 7.) And IRGC's deterrence was never even under a question mark. If for no other reason then because… yes, that’s right: this strike has never happened, and anybody can pass by and shoot at Iran at will: the IRGC doesn't mind.

Everything clear?

Why are you upset now? This is all nothing else but positive. Just think of it: this is warfare of the finest. That’s obvious.

Everybody's shooting, missiles flying all over the place, but nobody did it, nothing was hit, and - except for a little Bedouin girl (living in an area not protected by the IDF, which makes me wonder if Israel then considers that part of its own territory for really its own?) - nobody was even injured. And both Israel's and IRGC's deterrence is fully intact. Or restored. Whichever way you like it. Thus, both are happy.

Everything's fine. It simply can't get better...

...and the Iraqis will be so kind to clear the mess left behind the party. See: collect all the wreckage of Iranian UAVs and ballistic missiles, and Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles that crashed in Iraq. But, the Iraqis do not matter: they’re not considered for human beings - regardless if by Zionists or the IRGC. So much so, not even the civilised West is complaining about anybody there violating and misusing the Iraqi airspace...

OK. By now, at least everything is clear.

...I only do not understand one thing: why then is the US Congress ah so very much concerned about Israel that it's squandering US$ 26 billion of taxpayer’s money for another Israel 'aid' package?

Ah yes! Now it dawned upon me: they're advised by the anchors and experts of the CNN...