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Michaelangelo's avatar

"Bojinka Plot" is the Manila terrorist plot 1992 for multiple plane hijackings and hitting key points for maximum casualties. The preparation of bombs/explosives in a hotel room in Mla set the discovery of the plot, the US even participated in the investigation.

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Dalmo's avatar

India said that these strikes were "non escalatory", which reminded me a lot the strikes on Israle by Iran in April 2024, when Iran then deemed the conflict over (hinting it was just a one-off show of force and not a declaration of war).

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Sasha The Norwegian's avatar

Thanks Tom, nice to see cool headed analysis instead of pics of flames and big explosions and war headlines.

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Ummon's avatar

There appear to be three different IAF aircraft wreckages (not counting the Mirage 2000 drop tank that some were mistaking for an aircraft - including the local officials who reported *three* rather than *two* downed aircraft in Kashmir, or the Indian Army loitering munition downed in Pakistan).

First, there is the wreckage in Srinagar-Pampore that was widely assumed to be a JF-17 in Indian OSINT but is clearly a Mirage 2000 (some videos: https://x.com/Platypuss_10/status/1919880130526159348 https://x.com/stairwayto3dom/status/1919900060520730813)

Second, there is the wreckage in Akhnoor where locals described two pilots surviving the crash (some videos: https://x.com/OsiOsint1/status/1919946308623708529 https://x.com/NewsSource01/status/1919973230040711641)

Third, there was the likely Rafale downed at Bhatinda. Sounds like you've seen the MICA missile / pylon wreckage, but there is also footage of the engine and local reports (e.g. https://x.com/NewsSource01/status/1920018957454520677 https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/unidentified-aircraft-crashes-in-punjab-s-bathinda-one-farm-labourer-killed-101746583826798.html)

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Sigh...

The first: it's not even clear if this is a new video, or an old video from a crash in 2023.

The second: 'something' crashed there, but it's unclear what (could've been a missile or a UAV).

The third: could be, would be, should be...

Mate, sorry, but you're not dealing with a noob here.

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Joshu's Dog's avatar

Re. the ISI as secret puppet master in Afghanistan, that was Steve Coll's convincing thesis in "Directorate S." Tucker Carlson's recent interview with Curt Weldon however, threw me for a loop with his claim that Bin Laden was actually hiding in Iran in the post 9/11 period under an arrangement with Soleimani. The first time I have heard any such thing even from "conspiracy theorists." It's a real game of Cluedo.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

OBL was hiding anywhere somebody's agenda in the USA needed him to hide...

...was a pure, disilled accident he was found and killed in Pakistan, of course...

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JG's avatar

The sensible analysis is very much appreciated 👍. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.

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Bogdan's avatar

i'm not sympathetic to either side, just one fact from personal experience. Once I overlooked a large subcontracting project in India and lived in Mumbai for a while. So, I can confirm first hand: Muslims are indeed oppressed in India. I saw clear sings of segregation and toxic hindu-nationalism. (not even mentioning the admiration of Putin and Bibi)

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Yup. There are really awful examples in this regards - including an entire Indian state organised and run by a governor who's a big fan of Adolf Hitler, Nazis, Hitlerjugend and similar affairs.

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Marmot's avatar

While I agree to you, the reality is not so black-white. Non-Muslims are oppressed in Pakistan. Even Shia or Sufi Muslim are not treated as "equal" to Suni Muslim. E.g. Ismaili Shia Muslims prefer to live in India to Pakistan. I have spoken to a few "secular" Muslim students in India (about 20yrs ago) and they told me they prefer India to Pakistan, too.

Mind that, most of Indian Muslims came form the lowest castes, hence their oppression is not based on religion only.

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Jason During's avatar

There are no castles in Islam so what do you mean?

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Marmot's avatar

I;ve written about origin. Hindu is older than Islam. And Islam has no castes (officially), right. So, so when Islam came into India, Hindus converted to Muslims and it was attractive to the Hindu lowest castes to convert especially. Some Hindu leaders (i.e. Hindu highest cast) converted to Islam, too. But most of convertites were from Hindu lowest castes. E.g. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malabar_Muslims "In general, a Muslim Mappila is a descendant of Hindu lower caste natives who converted to Islam."

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Kataria's avatar

How do you reconcile reprimanding Pakistan for backing Jihadists, but also support people in Syria that emanated from Al Qaeda?

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Oh, that's simple. I check with the people in question instead of judging about something I have no idea about - and that from thousands of kilometres away, and with help of the psychopatic social media.

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Bogdan's avatar

"the West is so obviously ignoring India’s interests while all the time licking boots of the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, India is simply left without any other choice." Seriously?

what's the difference with putin's claim that "the West is so obviously ignoring ruzzia’s interests while all the time licking boots of the People’s Republic of China and the Ukrainian nazis, ruzzia is simply left without any other choice, but start its glorious special military operation"?

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Money.

(You've asked about the difference.)

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Md. Al-Imran Abir's avatar

Well, Bangladeshi here, have been following you since the 2023 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some points made here really surprised me.

First on the authenticity of Indian media. You seem to give Indian media slight preference over Pakistani ones but one thing I am sure is that Indian media is the worst in the world to say the very least. Except a few handpicked outlets like the Wire, the Scroll, etc. all are so-called "Godi"* media whose main duty is to feed public with any info (in most cases mis/dis-information) that supports the ruling BJP fuelling it's Hindutva ideology (inspired by Nazi). We Bangladeshis experienced this disinformation fight by Godi media firsthand following the mass uprising last year in Bangladesh that ousted the Indian puppet dictator Sheikh Hasina. Following that, Indian media propagated thousands of lies to establish Indian narrative. I don't know if you read a report earlier this year which revealed India to be the largest source of disinformation (and they "secured" the first position by a large margin) [1](https://news.umich.edu/india-ranks-as-highest-risk-for-misinformation-u-m-experts-can-comment/). Just for an idea, you can look at the transformation of NDTV - from a respected outlet to a Godi media. (And I should mention that I am disgusted by Indian media fed lies not only for their 2024 behavior but also regarding all the lies that India and their puppet fed us - Bangladeshi youths born after 1995 - about our liberation war. Believing their media except a few is a big mistake and these lies are nowadays state approved and often state sponsored. I suggest you to view some of their Hindi language coverage - like Republic TV, Aaj Tak, NDTV, etc - if possible to get an idea.)

Secondly, this attack is for Modi (the butcher of Guzrat) to win the next election. If you followed the last Indian national election, Modi's BJP failed to win outright majority for the first time after Modi's arrival in the national arena. Yes, it's likely that ISI is involved in the Pahalgam attack, but has India been able to provide any evidence until now? Attacking a country alleging something w/o providing any proof - seems very familiar (Iraq invasion). Add it to the fact that Modi's govt couldn't prevent the attack and opposition was grilling Modi for that (aside from usual anti-Pakistan rhetoric). So, it's a very familiar scenario from Modi playbook to divert attention from the main issues and drive the hyper-nationalism for voting gain. The 2019 attack you are referring to also favored Modi (sweeping victory for Modi's BJP in 2019 election). And also, you can take a look at the anti-Muslim hate that is propagating in India following the attack - anti-Muslim politics has been very helpful for Modi to secure outright majority. BJP leaders have been calling for 260 Muslims to be killed as a retaliation - see remarks made by Suvendu Adhikari, leader of West Bengal BJP, this guy even suggested for attacking in the way that Israel is doing in Gaza [1](https://www.threads.com/@mzuhossain/post/DI1V7zJT0qu) [2](https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1XoeD8UU17/), [3](https://x.com/PinakiTweetsBD/status/1916588527309013151).

Thirdly, you dismissed all the claims of Pakistan saying they are all "officially released Pakistani lies" citing 2019 attack. But you didn't mention that Pakistan did capture an Indian pilot. Even if all other claims are false, that one was at least true, right? I don't think Pakistan has the technology to replicate a living human being.

I had thought of some other points while reading your piece but forgot by the time I started writing.

* Godi is Hindi word that means lap. The term Godi media implies that these Media are like lapdogs of Modi.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

You happen to be dealing here with somebody working as editor of works by both Indian, Pakistani and US historians of the Indo-Pakistani conflict. Just for example, works like:

- books about the Pakistan Armoured Corps (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/at-the-forward-edge-of-battle-a-history-of-the-pakistan-armoured-corps-1938-2016-volume-1-.php),

- Pakistan Air Force (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/against-all-odds-pakistan-air-force-in-the-1971-india-pakistan-war.php ),

- Eagles of Destiny (the only book about the PAF published so far that's based on official PAF documentation, and not somebody's 'memory': https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/eagles-of-destiny-volume-1-birth-and-growth-of-the-royal-pakistan-air-force-1947-1956.php),

- Kargil War (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/kargil-1999-south-asias-first-post-nuclear-conflict.php ),

- Terror and Response (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/terror-and-response-the-india-pakistan-proxy-war-2008-2019.php ),

- Nuclear India (written by a gent that co-wrote the India's Nuclear Strategy: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/nuclear-india-developing-indias-nuclear-arms-from-reluctance-to-triad.php ), and many others.

Thus, sorry: I can't care less about the mainstream-media, no matter which (if for no other reason then because I cannot recall a single example of any media reporting something factual about any kind of an armed conflict). Thus, sorry, nope: I'll not go checking the NDTV, Wire, the Scroll or anybody else.

And re. 'this attack is for Modi': would you like to say the Pakistan's ISI is now running jihadist terror attacks on India on behalf (or even on order) of the Indian Prime Minister?

Not my fault, but, simple cross-checking has proven that the downing and the capture of Wg Cdr. Abihandan was about the only piece of truth published by official Pakistan since around 2001 (if not since 1971).

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Max Rottersman's avatar

I don't think he was questioning your expertise. He wrote "seem", etc. I don't know shit about any of this. I just want to point out, sorry, that it seems there's a lot for me to learn here from you and him but if you make cross-arguments I find it hard to know what to believe or not.

Correct me if I'm wrong, you're explaining the military issues and he's explaining the propaganda issues, from a Bangladeshi perspective? Again, sorry! I would have DM'd if I could.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

One can't question my knowledge without own knowledge. Thus, nope didn't understand it that way.

Rather so that the way he thinks I am perceiving the situation, is very distant from the reality.

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Hank Moody's avatar

Kanglus would still be kanglus behaving like terrorism apologists.

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Siddhant's avatar

India hitting locations in Pakistan's Punjab (which is undisputed) region with missiles is potentially one step up the escalation ladder compared to the 2019 Airstrikes in Pakistan's side of Kashmir (which is disputed). I am surprised India could hit these locations with precision missiles - Where was the Air defense from PAF? Quite surprised to see PAK's defense minister say they will de-escalate if India stops any more attacks. I assumed they would go tit for tat.

banned terror outfit JeM has confirmed that their leader Masood Azhar's family was hit by this attack.

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Jose Javier's avatar

Good morning Tom, again lowering the ball to the floor . . . and yes, Terror and Response is a very good book.

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Allan's avatar

Thank for an excellent piece - I prefer to hear from the official Sarcastasaur before drawing any conclusions so many thanks for this.

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Colin's avatar

You forgot to mention the "Islamic Brotherly love" the Pakistanis give to the Baloch's and the people of the NWF. The Taliban biting the hand that raised it, is the only silver lining. I read this book years ago and it gives a good layout on the early history of the Taliban and the ISI. https://www.amazon.ca/Taliban-Ahmed-Rashid/dp/1470890844

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Spike's avatar

Thanks Tom.

What is the motivation for ISI creating jihadists in a self-motivated way independent from the government?

See no other option to fight India, believe in Jihadism, others?

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PeterL's avatar

When the current crisis started my first associacion was this clip from the Onion, glad to read that yet again that despite the media craze the situation remains the same:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UR2MQ8VGgd0

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